Dolphin Ratings - NCAA Football

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. The RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Pennsylvania          15  0  0  463   20  0.545    1  1.986    1  2.082    2  2.083    1 0.6479    1 0.6815    1   1249  0.149  1.856  2.309
Princeton             10  1  0  339    6  0.923    2  1.784    3  1.654    1  2.285    2 0.6321    2 0.6717    3   1160 -0.026  1.932  2.639
Yale                   9  0  2  170   35  0.713    3  1.751    2  1.739    4  1.234    3 0.6244    3 0.6403    2   1190  0.025  0.916  1.551
Harvard               10  1  1  233   20  0.749    4  1.630    4  1.438    3  1.481    4 0.6083    4 0.6318    4   1101 -0.194  1.019  1.943
Army                   6  1  1  194   41  0.529    5  1.437    5  1.080    5  1.218    5 0.5950    6 0.6066   10    771  0.801  1.576  0.861
Chicago               11  1  0  323   68 -0.008    6  1.336    6  0.862   11  0.547    8 0.5521    7 0.5992    5   1040  1.074  1.207 -0.114
Lafayette              9  2  1  256  113  0.218    7  1.330    7  0.849    9  0.716    7 0.5792    8 0.5728   13    683  0.707  0.978  0.453
Brown                  7  4  0  180  152  0.402    8  1.224    8  0.655   13  0.216    9 0.5486    9 0.5538   14    664  1.073  0.875 -0.443
Cornell                5  3  1  133   42  0.890    9  1.205    9  0.619    6  1.024   10 0.5384   10 0.5486   15    553  0.132  0.784  1.264
Navy                   7  1  0  110   34 -0.524   10  1.158   10  0.497   15 -0.072   11 0.5383   14 0.4718    7    929  0.187 -0.270  0.126
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Carlisle               6  4  0  232   98  0.940   11  1.124   11  0.428    8  0.981   12 0.5264   11 0.5423   11    743  1.092  1.662  0.300
Dartmouth              4  3  0  164   77  0.760   12  1.067   12  0.297   10  0.643   13 0.5182   12 0.5370   12    685  0.863  1.067  0.219
Wisconsin              9  1  0  210   14  0.026   13  1.027   13  0.196    7  1.017    6 0.5836    5 0.6202    6   1010  0.446  1.033  1.001
Illinois               6  2  0  190   45 -0.199   14  0.921   14 -0.016   14  0.201   20 0.4534   24 0.3641    9    832  0.729  0.485 -0.084
Wesleyan               6  7  0  121  184 -0.055   15  0.858   15 -0.132   16 -0.266   14 0.5002   13 0.4898   21    207  0.387 -0.301 -0.232
Michigan               6  1  1  168   31 -0.588   16  0.727   16 -0.382   12  0.238   15 0.4894   16 0.4568   17    431  0.596  0.392  0.084
Penn State             3  6  0   69  141  0.094   17  0.647   17 -0.527   19 -0.522   18 0.4600   18 0.4239   25     62  0.183 -0.723 -0.320
Dickinson              7  3  2  146   69 -0.614   18  0.633   18 -0.595   18 -0.478   16 0.4723   22 0.3908   16    488  0.114 -0.732 -0.225
Northwestern           5  3  0   69   55 -0.532   19  0.590   19 -0.668   20 -0.650   22 0.4320   15 0.4651    8    888  0.192 -0.845 -0.456
Bucknell               3  3  1   89  103 -0.475   20  0.534   21 -0.770   21 -0.720   17 0.4702   17 0.4457   19    370  0.997 -0.149 -1.291
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Lehigh                 3  7  0   84  261 -0.434   21  0.514   20 -0.711   25 -1.145   19 0.4599   20 0.4046   26      0  0.736 -0.853 -1.436
Trinity (Connecticut)  4  4  1  112   77 -0.476   22  0.469   22 -0.795   17 -0.453   23 0.4263   23 0.3786   22    206  0.574 -0.320 -0.586
Purdue                 5  3  1  106  108 -1.005   23  0.399   23 -0.911   24 -1.068   25 0.4103   27 0.2781   18    377  0.721 -0.792 -1.344
Tufts                  6  7  0   96  133 -0.482   24  0.317   24 -1.032   22 -0.882   21 0.4337   21 0.3962   23    196  0.161 -1.100 -0.665
Minnesota              4  4  0  112   77 -0.883   25  0.313   25 -1.040   23 -1.060   28 0.3658   28 0.2673   20    327  0.243 -1.214 -0.906
Amherst                2  6  2   40  188 -0.985   26  0.091   26 -1.432   28 -1.786   27 0.3796   26 0.3030   27      0  0.065 -2.076 -1.497
Franklin & Marshall    2  6  2   58  199 -0.595   27  0.090   27 -1.434   26 -1.305   24 0.4157   19 0.4204   24     88  0.476 -1.262 -1.349
Williams               1  7  1   12  197 -0.769   28  0.000   28 -1.583   27 -1.742   26 0.3856   25 0.3342   28      0  0.002 -2.076 -1.408
UNRANKED              10 90  9  296 2187 -0.532      -1.000      -1.000      -1.514      0.3863      0.3637           0  0.158 -1.734 -1.293


Independent: strength=0.094 (#1)
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Pennsylvania          15  0  0  463   20  0.545    1  1.986    1  2.082    2  2.083    1 0.6479    1 0.6815    1   1249  0.149  1.856  2.309
Princeton             10  1  0  339    6  0.923    2  1.784    3  1.654    1  2.285    2 0.6321    2 0.6717    3   1160 -0.026  1.932  2.639
Yale                   9  0  2  170   35  0.713    3  1.751    2  1.739    4  1.234    3 0.6244    3 0.6403    2   1190  0.025  0.916  1.551
Harvard               10  1  1  233   20  0.749    4  1.630    4  1.438    3  1.481    4 0.6083    4 0.6318    4   1101 -0.194  1.019  1.943
Army                   6  1  1  194   41  0.529    5  1.437    5  1.080    5  1.218    5 0.5950    6 0.6066   10    771  0.801  1.576  0.861
Lafayette              9  2  1  256  113  0.218    7  1.330    7  0.849    9  0.716    7 0.5792    8 0.5728   13    683  0.707  0.978  0.453
Brown                  7  4  0  180  152  0.402    8  1.224    8  0.655   13  0.216    9 0.5486    9 0.5538   14    664  1.073  0.875 -0.443
Cornell                5  3  1  133   42  0.890    9  1.205    9  0.619    6  1.024   10 0.5384   10 0.5486   15    553  0.132  0.784  1.264
Navy                   7  1  0  110   34 -0.524   10  1.158   10  0.497   15 -0.072   11 0.5383   14 0.4718    7    929  0.187 -0.270  0.126
Carlisle               6  4  0  232   98  0.940   11  1.124   11  0.428    8  0.981   12 0.5264   11 0.5423   11    743  1.092  1.662  0.300
Dartmouth              4  3  0  164   77  0.760   12  1.067   12  0.297   10  0.643   13 0.5182   12 0.5370   12    685  0.863  1.067  0.219
Wesleyan               6  7  0  121  184 -0.055   15  0.858   15 -0.132   16 -0.266   14 0.5002   13 0.4898   21    207  0.387 -0.301 -0.232
Penn State             3  6  0   69  141  0.094   17  0.647   17 -0.527   19 -0.522   18 0.4600   18 0.4239   25     62  0.183 -0.723 -0.320
Dickinson              7  3  2  146   69 -0.614   18  0.633   18 -0.595   18 -0.478   16 0.4723   22 0.3908   16    488  0.114 -0.732 -0.225
Bucknell               3  3  1   89  103 -0.475   20  0.534   21 -0.770   21 -0.720   17 0.4702   17 0.4457   19    370  0.997 -0.149 -1.291
Lehigh                 3  7  0   84  261 -0.434   21  0.514   20 -0.711   25 -1.145   19 0.4599   20 0.4046   26      0  0.736 -0.853 -1.436
Trinity (Connecticut)  4  4  1  112   77 -0.476   22  0.469   22 -0.795   17 -0.453   23 0.4263   23 0.3786   22    206  0.574 -0.320 -0.586
Tufts                  6  7  0   96  133 -0.482   24  0.317   24 -1.032   22 -0.882   21 0.4337   21 0.3962   23    196  0.161 -1.100 -0.665
Amherst                2  6  2   40  188 -0.985   26  0.091   26 -1.432   28 -1.786   27 0.3796   26 0.3030   27      0  0.065 -2.076 -1.497
Franklin & Marshall    2  6  2   58  199 -0.595   27  0.090   27 -1.434   26 -1.305   24 0.4157   19 0.4204   24     88  0.476 -1.262 -1.349
Williams               1  7  1   12  197 -0.769   28  0.000   28 -1.583   27 -1.742   26 0.3856   25 0.3342   28      0  0.002 -2.076 -1.408

Western: strength=-0.149 (#2)
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Chicago               11  1  0  323   68 -0.008    6  1.336    6  0.862   11  0.547    8 0.5521    7 0.5992    5   1040  1.074  1.207 -0.114
Wisconsin              9  1  0  210   14  0.026   13  1.027   13  0.196    7  1.017    6 0.5836    5 0.6202    6   1010  0.446  1.033  1.001
Illinois               6  2  0  190   45 -0.199   14  0.921   14 -0.016   14  0.201   20 0.4534   24 0.3641    9    832  0.729  0.485 -0.084
Michigan               6  1  1  168   31 -0.588   16  0.727   16 -0.382   12  0.238   15 0.4894   16 0.4568   17    431  0.596  0.392  0.084
Northwestern           5  3  0   69   55 -0.532   19  0.590   19 -0.668   20 -0.650   22 0.4320   15 0.4651    8    888  0.192 -0.845 -0.456
Purdue                 5  3  1  106  108 -1.005   23  0.399   23 -0.911   24 -1.068   25 0.4103   27 0.2781   18    377  0.721 -0.792 -1.344
Minnesota              4  4  0  112   77 -0.883   25  0.313   25 -1.040   23 -1.060   28 0.3658   28 0.2673   20    327  0.243 -1.214 -0.906

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE    W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Independent 125  76  15 0.613    1  0.094
Western      46  15   2 0.746    2 -0.149

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.295 points in main ratings
     0.029 points in improved RPI
Average of 5.65 points per score

posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:04 2007

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