Dolphin Ratings - NCAA Football

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. The RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Full Ranking

                                                     STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Harvard                12   0   0  254   24  0.638    1  2.195    1  2.059    3  1.847    1 0.6716    2 0.6834    1   1250  0.251  1.837  1.858
Wisconsin               9   0   0  317    5  0.928    2  2.081    2  1.809    2  2.270    4 0.6275    5 0.6259    2   1198  0.221  2.235  2.305
Michigan               11   0   0  550    0  0.252    3  1.959    3  1.511    1  2.556    2 0.6395    4 0.6408    4   1090  0.108  2.434  2.678
Yale                   11   1   1  251   37  0.532    4  1.918    4  1.433    6  1.414    5 0.6268    3 0.6431    8    898  0.147  1.323  1.506
Princeton               9   1   1  247   24  0.626    5  1.815    5  1.296   10  1.096    8 0.5969    6 0.6249    5   1066 -0.175  0.780  1.412
Dartmouth              10   1   0  291   47  0.188    6  1.729    6  1.115    8  1.172    7 0.5988    8 0.5914   12    701  0.789  1.652  0.692
Cornell                11   1   0  332   14  0.247    7  1.702    7  1.060    5  1.437    9 0.5927   10 0.5884    6   1002  0.316  1.480  1.395
Army                    5   1   2   98   22  0.699    8  1.696    8  1.055    9  1.125    6 0.6071   12 0.5671   11    730 -0.005  0.922  1.328
Minnesota               9   1   1  183   18  0.987    9  1.570   10  0.838    4  1.563    3 0.6375    1 0.7076    3   1142 -0.112  1.287  1.839
Northwestern            8   2   1  161   77  0.533   10  1.515    9  0.898   14  0.504   10 0.5859    7 0.5968    9    892  0.304  0.535  0.472
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Illinois                8   2   0  243   39  0.530   11  1.502   11  0.784    7  1.292   12 0.5751   18 0.5388    7    899  0.710  1.693  0.892
Massachusetts           8   1   0   89   29 -0.351   12  1.443   12  0.669   19  0.273   11 0.5773   19 0.5383   15    499 -0.147 -0.026  0.571
Iowa                    6   3   0   85  115  0.201   13  1.434   13  0.659   23 -0.007   19 0.5339   21 0.5199   22    209  0.598  0.286 -0.299
Nebraska                7   2   0  171   52  0.149   14  1.414   14  0.611   13  0.521   18 0.5376   14 0.5615   16    478  0.545  0.763  0.279
Williams                6   4   0  119   52  0.562   15  1.325   15  0.434   12  0.543   17 0.5440   15 0.5579   21    252  0.048  0.378  0.708
Indiana                 6   3   0  214   87  0.333   16  1.248   16  0.284   20  0.182   25 0.4922   32 0.4428   13    646  0.667  0.540 -0.176
Pennsylvania           10   5   0  203  122 -0.005   17  1.232   17  0.255   21  0.149   22 0.5200   27 0.4706   23    139  0.596  0.440 -0.141
Grinnell                7   1   1  151   27 -0.293   18  1.221   18  0.236   18  0.294   21 0.5253   20 0.5329   14    596  0.190  0.236  0.353
Columbia                8   5   0  158   91  0.431   19  1.200   19  0.205   17  0.432   16 0.5475   17 0.5399   20    312  0.337  0.491  0.372
Notre Dame              8   1   1  145   19 -0.099   20  1.181   20  0.172   15  0.450   14 0.5651   16 0.5566   10    805 -0.281  0.069  0.832
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Syracuse                7   2   0  185   33 -0.119   21  1.116   21  0.065   11  0.693   13 0.5731    9 0.5913   18    449  0.593  0.981  0.406
Holy Cross              7   1   1  126   43 -0.757   22  1.113   22  0.059   31 -0.243   20 0.5315   28 0.4637   25     61  0.495 -0.046 -0.440
Haskell                 2   2   0   47   51 -0.102   23  1.075   23 -0.016   24 -0.057   24 0.4961   13 0.5653   28      0  0.596  0.234 -0.347
Beloit                  5   3   3  156  162 -0.099   24  1.034   24 -0.108   34 -0.332   28 0.4782   29 0.4551   17    474  0.598 -0.040 -0.623
Lafayette               9   3   0  240   94 -0.237   25  1.008   25 -0.150   16  0.445   15 0.5483   11 0.5709   19    337  0.449  0.601  0.289
Bates                   3   3   0   40   48 -0.103   26  0.991   26 -0.177   28 -0.119   27 0.4866   24 0.4873   29      0 -0.252 -0.483  0.245
Purdue                  4   4   1  138   66  0.136   27  0.932   27 -0.293   22 -0.003   38 0.4275   45 0.3417   27      6  0.529  0.225 -0.230
Penn State              5   3   0  117   90 -0.323   28  0.929   28 -0.299   27 -0.108   23 0.5086   23 0.5020   30      0  0.690  0.273 -0.489
Navy                    6   4   1  113   81 -0.291   29  0.885   29 -0.334   30 -0.205   26 0.4894   37 0.3941   31      0  0.169 -0.280 -0.129
Wesleyan                3   6   1   45  102  0.108   30  0.835   30 -0.410   32 -0.257   30 0.4750   26 0.4814   32      0  0.044 -0.425 -0.089
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Chicago                 8   6   2  175  131 -0.124   31  0.812   31 -0.450   33 -0.269   34 0.4491   41 0.3600   24     79  0.016 -0.457 -0.081
Tufts                   6   6   1  103  107 -0.338   32  0.738   32 -0.550   36 -0.364   32 0.4696   31 0.4455   33      0  0.152 -0.453 -0.276
Bucknell                6   4   0  145   46 -0.394   33  0.734   33 -0.558   29 -0.141   36 0.4373   36 0.3999   26     40 -0.373 -0.576  0.294
Amherst                 4   6   2   88  102  0.096   34  0.729   34 -0.562   25 -0.098   31 0.4697   25 0.4865   34      0  0.514  0.117 -0.312
Vermont                 5   5   1  146  171 -0.357   35  0.700   35 -0.606   38 -0.853   29 0.4763   22 0.5175   35      0  0.477 -0.672 -1.034
Carlisle                5   7   1  134  168  0.027   36  0.666   36 -0.656   37 -0.367   33 0.4599   30 0.4532   36      0  0.835  0.160 -0.894
Drake                   4   4   0  113   34 -0.504   37  0.656   37 -0.671   26 -0.106   37 0.4310   38 0.3879   37      0  0.028 -0.285  0.074
Brown                   4   7   1   70  212 -0.390   38  0.613   38 -0.741   43 -1.072   35 0.4460   33 0.4270   38      0  0.178 -1.140 -1.005
Knox                    0   3   0   11   52  0.268   39  0.590   39 -0.785   35 -0.351   44 0.3858   46 0.3294   39      0  0.518 -0.134 -0.569
Iowa State              2   6   2   56  133 -0.226   40  0.545   40 -0.890   40 -0.913   41 0.4003   35 0.4045   40      0 -0.136 -1.205 -0.621
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Dickinson               4   6   0   79  109 -0.397   41  0.533   41 -0.909   39 -0.910   42 0.3909   44 0.3438   41      0  0.290 -0.889 -0.932
Trinity (Connecticut)   1   6   1   23  112 -0.107   42  0.470   42 -1.015   41 -0.954   39 0.4103   39 0.3825   42      0 -0.440 -1.426 -0.482
Kansas                  3   5   2   92  147 -0.806   43  0.441   43 -1.064   42 -1.060   43 0.3898   40 0.3676   43      0  0.476 -0.880 -1.240
Bowdoin                 2   7   0   81  172 -0.297   44  0.352   44 -1.204   44 -1.079   40 0.4015   34 0.4094   44      0  0.734 -0.654 -1.503
Boston College          2   7   0   28  108 -0.666   45  0.275   45 -1.336   45 -1.468   45 0.3668   47 0.3045   45      0 -0.464 -1.952 -0.983
Missouri                1   6   1   29  155 -1.118   46  0.044   46 -1.745   46 -1.912   47 0.3556   42 0.3563   46      0  0.569 -1.647 -2.176
Lehigh                  1  11   0   26  278 -0.524   47  0.000   47 -1.816   47 -1.948   46 0.3622   43 0.3443   47      0  0.035 -2.123 -1.773
UNRANKED               25 135   9  607 3567 -0.458      -1.000      -1.000      -1.458      0.3983      0.3870           0  0.487 -1.268 -1.648


Independent: strength=-0.115 (#2)
                                                     STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Harvard                12   0   0  254   24  0.638    1  2.195    1  2.059    3  1.847    1 0.6716    2 0.6834    1   1250  0.251  1.837  1.858
Yale                   11   1   1  251   37  0.532    4  1.918    4  1.433    6  1.414    5 0.6268    3 0.6431    8    898  0.147  1.323  1.506
Princeton               9   1   1  247   24  0.626    5  1.815    5  1.296   10  1.096    8 0.5969    6 0.6249    5   1066 -0.175  0.780  1.412
Dartmouth              10   1   0  291   47  0.188    6  1.729    6  1.115    8  1.172    7 0.5988    8 0.5914   12    701  0.789  1.652  0.692
Cornell                11   1   0  332   14  0.247    7  1.702    7  1.060    5  1.437    9 0.5927   10 0.5884    6   1002  0.316  1.480  1.395
Army                    5   1   2   98   22  0.699    8  1.696    8  1.055    9  1.125    6 0.6071   12 0.5671   11    730 -0.005  0.922  1.328
Massachusetts           8   1   0   89   29 -0.351   12  1.443   12  0.669   19  0.273   11 0.5773   19 0.5383   15    499 -0.147 -0.026  0.571
Nebraska                7   2   0  171   52  0.149   14  1.414   14  0.611   13  0.521   18 0.5376   14 0.5615   16    478  0.545  0.763  0.279
Williams                6   4   0  119   52  0.562   15  1.325   15  0.434   12  0.543   17 0.5440   15 0.5579   21    252  0.048  0.378  0.708
Pennsylvania           10   5   0  203  122 -0.005   17  1.232   17  0.255   21  0.149   22 0.5200   27 0.4706   23    139  0.596  0.440 -0.141
Grinnell                7   1   1  151   27 -0.293   18  1.221   18  0.236   18  0.294   21 0.5253   20 0.5329   14    596  0.190  0.236  0.353
Columbia                8   5   0  158   91  0.431   19  1.200   19  0.205   17  0.432   16 0.5475   17 0.5399   20    312  0.337  0.491  0.372
Notre Dame              8   1   1  145   19 -0.099   20  1.181   20  0.172   15  0.450   14 0.5651   16 0.5566   10    805 -0.281  0.069  0.832
Syracuse                7   2   0  185   33 -0.119   21  1.116   21  0.065   11  0.693   13 0.5731    9 0.5913   18    449  0.593  0.981  0.406
Holy Cross              7   1   1  126   43 -0.757   22  1.113   22  0.059   31 -0.243   20 0.5315   28 0.4637   25     61  0.495 -0.046 -0.440
Haskell                 2   2   0   47   51 -0.102   23  1.075   23 -0.016   24 -0.057   24 0.4961   13 0.5653   28      0  0.596  0.234 -0.347
Beloit                  5   3   3  156  162 -0.099   24  1.034   24 -0.108   34 -0.332   28 0.4782   29 0.4551   17    474  0.598 -0.040 -0.623
Lafayette               9   3   0  240   94 -0.237   25  1.008   25 -0.150   16  0.445   15 0.5483   11 0.5709   19    337  0.449  0.601  0.289
Bates                   3   3   0   40   48 -0.103   26  0.991   26 -0.177   28 -0.119   27 0.4866   24 0.4873   29      0 -0.252 -0.483  0.245
Penn State              5   3   0  117   90 -0.323   28  0.929   28 -0.299   27 -0.108   23 0.5086   23 0.5020   30      0  0.690  0.273 -0.489
Navy                    6   4   1  113   81 -0.291   29  0.885   29 -0.334   30 -0.205   26 0.4894   37 0.3941   31      0  0.169 -0.280 -0.129
Wesleyan                3   6   1   45  102  0.108   30  0.835   30 -0.410   32 -0.257   30 0.4750   26 0.4814   32      0  0.044 -0.425 -0.089
Tufts                   6   6   1  103  107 -0.338   32  0.738   32 -0.550   36 -0.364   32 0.4696   31 0.4455   33      0  0.152 -0.453 -0.276
Bucknell                6   4   0  145   46 -0.394   33  0.734   33 -0.558   29 -0.141   36 0.4373   36 0.3999   26     40 -0.373 -0.576  0.294
Amherst                 4   6   2   88  102  0.096   34  0.729   34 -0.562   25 -0.098   31 0.4697   25 0.4865   34      0  0.514  0.117 -0.312
Vermont                 5   5   1  146  171 -0.357   35  0.700   35 -0.606   38 -0.853   29 0.4763   22 0.5175   35      0  0.477 -0.672 -1.034
Carlisle                5   7   1  134  168  0.027   36  0.666   36 -0.656   37 -0.367   33 0.4599   30 0.4532   36      0  0.835  0.160 -0.894
Drake                   4   4   0  113   34 -0.504   37  0.656   37 -0.671   26 -0.106   37 0.4310   38 0.3879   37      0  0.028 -0.285  0.074
Brown                   4   7   1   70  212 -0.390   38  0.613   38 -0.741   43 -1.072   35 0.4460   33 0.4270   38      0  0.178 -1.140 -1.005
Knox                    0   3   0   11   52  0.268   39  0.590   39 -0.785   35 -0.351   44 0.3858   46 0.3294   39      0  0.518 -0.134 -0.569
Iowa State              2   6   2   56  133 -0.226   40  0.545   40 -0.890   40 -0.913   41 0.4003   35 0.4045   40      0 -0.136 -1.205 -0.621
Dickinson               4   6   0   79  109 -0.397   41  0.533   41 -0.909   39 -0.910   42 0.3909   44 0.3438   41      0  0.290 -0.889 -0.932
Trinity (Connecticut)   1   6   1   23  112 -0.107   42  0.470   42 -1.015   41 -0.954   39 0.4103   39 0.3825   42      0 -0.440 -1.426 -0.482
Kansas                  3   5   2   92  147 -0.806   43  0.441   43 -1.064   42 -1.060   43 0.3898   40 0.3676   43      0  0.476 -0.880 -1.240
Bowdoin                 2   7   0   81  172 -0.297   44  0.352   44 -1.204   44 -1.079   40 0.4015   34 0.4094   44      0  0.734 -0.654 -1.503
Boston College          2   7   0   28  108 -0.666   45  0.275   45 -1.336   45 -1.468   45 0.3668   47 0.3045   45      0 -0.464 -1.952 -0.983
Missouri                1   6   1   29  155 -1.118   46  0.044   46 -1.745   46 -1.912   47 0.3556   42 0.3563   46      0  0.569 -1.647 -2.176
Lehigh                  1  11   0   26  278 -0.524   47  0.000   47 -1.816   47 -1.948   46 0.3622   43 0.3443   47      0  0.035 -2.123 -1.773

Western: strength=0.917 (#1)
                                                     STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                    W   L   T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Wisconsin               9   0   0  317    5  0.928    2  2.081    2  1.809    2  2.270    4 0.6275    5 0.6259    2   1198  0.221  2.235  2.305
Michigan               11   0   0  550    0  0.252    3  1.959    3  1.511    1  2.556    2 0.6395    4 0.6408    4   1090  0.108  2.434  2.678
Minnesota               9   1   1  183   18  0.987    9  1.570   10  0.838    4  1.563    3 0.6375    1 0.7076    3   1142 -0.112  1.287  1.839
Northwestern            8   2   1  161   77  0.533   10  1.515    9  0.898   14  0.504   10 0.5859    7 0.5968    9    892  0.304  0.535  0.472
Illinois                8   2   0  243   39  0.530   11  1.502   11  0.784    7  1.292   12 0.5751   18 0.5388    7    899  0.710  1.693  0.892
Iowa                    6   3   0   85  115  0.201   13  1.434   13  0.659   23 -0.007   19 0.5339   21 0.5199   22    209  0.598  0.286 -0.299
Indiana                 6   3   0  214   87  0.333   16  1.248   16  0.284   20  0.182   25 0.4922   32 0.4428   13    646  0.667  0.540 -0.176
Purdue                  4   4   1  138   66  0.136   27  0.932   27 -0.293   22 -0.003   38 0.4275   45 0.3417   27      6  0.529  0.225 -0.230
Chicago                 8   6   2  175  131 -0.124   31  0.812   31 -0.450   33 -0.269   34 0.4491   41 0.3600   24     79  0.016 -0.457 -0.081

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE    W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Western      69  21   5 0.753    1  0.917
Independent 209 147  24 0.582    2 -0.115

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.199 points in main ratings
     0.016 points in improved RPI
Average of 5.65 points per score

posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:02 2007

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