Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         59 41 527 412  0.014 49.567    1  0.158    1  0.141    1  0.180    1 0.5230   12  0.583    4  0.282   13  0.078   12  0.051
BREWERS      60 40 479 388 -0.013 48.511    2  0.150    2  0.138    3  0.135    3 0.5219    6  0.666    2  0.317   20 -0.047   28 -0.456
BLUE JAYS    59 41 462 433  0.007 49.408    3  0.145    3  0.135   11  0.068    2 0.5224   18  0.382   17 -0.011    7  0.147    5  0.244
TIGERS       60 41 485 405 -0.015 48.961    4  0.140    4  0.130    4  0.124    4 0.5214   14  0.523    9  0.169   12  0.078   18 -0.021
ASTROS       58 42 442 381 -0.003 48.991    5  0.113    5  0.115    5  0.097    5 0.5194   17  0.436   13  0.065    8  0.129   23 -0.073
DODGERS      59 42 535 467 -0.020 48.750    6  0.109    6  0.113    7  0.085    6 0.5176   11  0.586    7  0.190   18 -0.019    3  0.295
PHILLIES     57 43 457 396 -0.032 47.829    7  0.070    7  0.085    6  0.085    8 0.5142   29  0.183   23 -0.155    1  0.326    2  0.456
YANKEES      55 45 521 412  0.004 49.214    8  0.058    9  0.076    2  0.162    7 0.5145    8  0.610    3  0.289   17  0.035   21 -0.071
METS         57 44 442 401 -0.024 48.662    9  0.058    8  0.081   12  0.047    9 0.5115   20  0.356   19 -0.054    5  0.148   22 -0.071
PADRES       55 45 402 384 -0.005 48.963   10  0.045   10  0.070   15  0.028   10 0.5110   27  0.257   22 -0.154    3  0.211   19 -0.061
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARINERS     53 47 467 443  0.021 50.014   11  0.032   11  0.056   13  0.045   11 0.5099    1  0.764    1  0.326   26 -0.236   29 -0.480
RED SOX      54 48 500 444  0.010 50.499   12  0.029   12  0.050    9  0.080   12 0.5071    9  0.596    6  0.194   19 -0.034   11  0.059
CARDINALS    52 49 457 451  0.020 50.508   13  0.019   13  0.033   17  0.022   13 0.5049    7  0.614   10  0.153   22 -0.109   24 -0.081
RAYS         52 49 470 405  0.004 49.745   14  0.013   14  0.023    8  0.085   14 0.5035   15  0.490   12  0.101   14  0.069   15  0.004
REDS         52 49 464 429 -0.012 49.174   15  0.010   16  0.015   14  0.035   17 0.5016   10  0.594   11  0.147   21 -0.077   25 -0.151
GIANTS       52 49 413 409 -0.011 49.312   16  0.009   15  0.016   18 -0.006   15 0.5026   26  0.293   24 -0.159    6  0.148   20 -0.070
RANGERS      51 50 407 351 -0.007 49.329   17  0.005   17  0.004   10  0.068   18 0.5010   19  0.374   18 -0.017    4  0.154   30 -0.540
GUARDIANS    49 50 381 419  0.017 49.491   18  0.004   18  0.003   22 -0.052   16 0.5019   23  0.339   27 -0.167   16  0.063   17 -0.019
ANGELS       49 51 442 503  0.017 50.014   19  0.001   19 -0.005   23 -0.078   19 0.5000   13  0.579   16  0.020   24 -0.176   10  0.080
DIAMONDBACKS 50 51 518 501 -0.016 49.029   20 -0.003   21 -0.017   16  0.027   20 0.4971    4  0.698    5  0.241   25 -0.186    9  0.097
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROYALS       49 52 355 375  0.010 50.214   21 -0.003   20 -0.015   21 -0.042   21 0.4966   25  0.328   26 -0.167   11  0.083   26 -0.337
TWINS        48 52 421 432 -0.000 49.222   22 -0.009   22 -0.029   19 -0.006   22 0.4957   22  0.350   20 -0.113    9  0.100    6  0.222
MARLINS      46 53 424 480 -0.014 48.336   23 -0.031   23 -0.061   25 -0.092   23 0.4889    2  0.746    8  0.170   28 -0.355   27 -0.371
ORIOLES      44 55 407 511  0.023 49.799   24 -0.039   24 -0.069   27 -0.136   24 0.4882   16  0.444   25 -0.162   23 -0.111    4  0.287
BRAVES       44 55 415 410 -0.018 48.023   25 -0.062   25 -0.091   20 -0.015   25 0.4850   21  0.352   21 -0.120   10  0.089   14  0.010
ATHLETICS    42 60 435 576  0.017 51.115   26 -0.113   26 -0.121   28 -0.163   26 0.4810    5  0.687   14  0.039   29 -0.366    7  0.202
PIRATES      40 61 336 406  0.046 51.674   27 -0.122   27 -0.126   24 -0.084   27 0.4790   30  0.054   29 -0.420    2  0.252    8  0.147
NATIONALS    40 60 434 544 -0.018 48.806   28 -0.177   28 -0.158   29 -0.194   28 0.4744    3  0.701   15  0.022   30 -0.410   16  0.003
WHITE SOX    36 65 367 440  0.006 50.122   29 -0.228   29 -0.208   26 -0.122   29 0.4668   28  0.254   28 -0.307   15  0.063   13  0.044
ROCKIES      24 76 355 612  0.023 50.623   30 -0.380   30 -0.377   30 -0.390   30 0.4378   24  0.331   30 -0.512   27 -0.267    1  0.601
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      59 42 535 467 -0.020 48.750    6  0.109    6  0.113    7  0.085    6 0.5176   11  0.586    7  0.190   18 -0.019    3  0.295
PADRES       55 45 402 384 -0.005 48.963   10  0.045   10  0.070   15  0.028   10 0.5110   27  0.257   22 -0.154    3  0.211   19 -0.061
GIANTS       52 49 413 409 -0.011 49.312   16  0.009   15  0.016   18 -0.006   15 0.5026   26  0.293   24 -0.159    6  0.148   20 -0.070
DIAMONDBACKS 50 51 518 501 -0.016 49.029   20 -0.003   21 -0.017   16  0.027   20 0.4971    4  0.698    5  0.241   25 -0.186    9  0.097
ROCKIES      24 76 355 612  0.023 50.623   30 -0.380   30 -0.377   30 -0.390   30 0.4378   24  0.331   30 -0.512   27 -0.267    1  0.601

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         59 41 527 412  0.014 49.567    1  0.158    1  0.141    1  0.180    1 0.5230   12  0.583    4  0.282   13  0.078   12  0.051
BREWERS      60 40 479 388 -0.013 48.511    2  0.150    2  0.138    3  0.135    3 0.5219    6  0.666    2  0.317   20 -0.047   28 -0.456
CARDINALS    52 49 457 451  0.020 50.508   13  0.019   13  0.033   17  0.022   13 0.5049    7  0.614   10  0.153   22 -0.109   24 -0.081
REDS         52 49 464 429 -0.012 49.174   15  0.010   16  0.015   14  0.035   17 0.5016   10  0.594   11  0.147   21 -0.077   25 -0.151
PIRATES      40 61 336 406  0.046 51.674   27 -0.122   27 -0.126   24 -0.084   27 0.4790   30  0.054   29 -0.420    2  0.252    8  0.147

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     57 43 457 396 -0.032 47.829    7  0.070    7  0.085    6  0.085    8 0.5142   29  0.183   23 -0.155    1  0.326    2  0.456
METS         57 44 442 401 -0.024 48.662    9  0.058    8  0.081   12  0.047    9 0.5115   20  0.356   19 -0.054    5  0.148   22 -0.071
MARLINS      46 53 424 480 -0.014 48.336   23 -0.031   23 -0.061   25 -0.092   23 0.4889    2  0.746    8  0.170   28 -0.355   27 -0.371
BRAVES       44 55 415 410 -0.018 48.023   25 -0.062   25 -0.091   20 -0.015   25 0.4850   21  0.352   21 -0.120   10  0.089   14  0.010
NATIONALS    40 60 434 544 -0.018 48.806   28 -0.177   28 -0.158   29 -0.194   28 0.4744    3  0.701   15  0.022   30 -0.410   16  0.003

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       58 42 442 381 -0.003 48.991    5  0.113    5  0.115    5  0.097    5 0.5194   17  0.436   13  0.065    8  0.129   23 -0.073
MARINERS     53 47 467 443  0.021 50.014   11  0.032   11  0.056   13  0.045   11 0.5099    1  0.764    1  0.326   26 -0.236   29 -0.480
RANGERS      51 50 407 351 -0.007 49.329   17  0.005   17  0.004   10  0.068   18 0.5010   19  0.374   18 -0.017    4  0.154   30 -0.540
ANGELS       49 51 442 503  0.017 50.014   19  0.001   19 -0.005   23 -0.078   19 0.5000   13  0.579   16  0.020   24 -0.176   10  0.080
ATHLETICS    42 60 435 576  0.017 51.115   26 -0.113   26 -0.121   28 -0.163   26 0.4810    5  0.687   14  0.039   29 -0.366    7  0.202

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       60 41 485 405 -0.015 48.961    4  0.140    4  0.130    4  0.124    4 0.5214   14  0.523    9  0.169   12  0.078   18 -0.021
GUARDIANS    49 50 381 419  0.017 49.491   18  0.004   18  0.003   22 -0.052   16 0.5019   23  0.339   27 -0.167   16  0.063   17 -0.019
ROYALS       49 52 355 375  0.010 50.214   21 -0.003   20 -0.015   21 -0.042   21 0.4966   25  0.328   26 -0.167   11  0.083   26 -0.337
TWINS        48 52 421 432 -0.000 49.222   22 -0.009   22 -0.029   19 -0.006   22 0.4957   22  0.350   20 -0.113    9  0.100    6  0.222
WHITE SOX    36 65 367 440  0.006 50.122   29 -0.228   29 -0.208   26 -0.122   29 0.4668   28  0.254   28 -0.307   15  0.063   13  0.044

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    59 41 462 433  0.007 49.408    3  0.145    3  0.135   11  0.068    2 0.5224   18  0.382   17 -0.011    7  0.147    5  0.244
YANKEES      55 45 521 412  0.004 49.214    8  0.058    9  0.076    2  0.162    7 0.5145    8  0.610    3  0.289   17  0.035   21 -0.071
RED SOX      54 48 500 444  0.010 50.499   12  0.029   12  0.050    9  0.080   12 0.5071    9  0.596    6  0.194   19 -0.034   11  0.059
RAYS         52 49 470 405  0.004 49.745   14  0.013   14  0.023    8  0.085   14 0.5035   15  0.490   12  0.101   14  0.069   15  0.004
ORIOLES      44 55 407 511  0.023 49.799   24 -0.039   24 -0.069   27 -0.136   24 0.4882   16  0.444   25 -0.162   23 -0.111    4  0.287

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 263 240 0.523    1  0.085
AL EAST    264 238 0.526    2  0.076
AL WEST    253 250 0.503    3 -0.008
AL CENTRAL 242 260 0.482    4 -0.029
NL EAST    244 255 0.489    5 -0.049
NL WEST    240 263 0.477    6 -0.071

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.077 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Jul 22 05:30:06 2025
games through: Mon Jul 21 2025

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