Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       36 20 284 201 -0.002 27.349    1  0.214    1  0.213    3  0.232    1 0.5344   12  0.564    2  0.342   12  0.121   26 -0.235
METS         34 21 239 177  0.039 27.846    2  0.199    2  0.197    4  0.201    2 0.5317   26  0.191   18 -0.007    1  0.408   24 -0.195
PHILLIES     35 19 262 218 -0.054 25.385    3  0.188    3  0.191    9  0.099    3 0.5306   20  0.329   16  0.003    7  0.196    5  0.268
CUBS         34 21 328 234  0.014 27.199    4  0.186    4  0.183    2  0.240    4 0.5294    1  0.789    1  0.573   20 -0.092   16 -0.033
YANKEES      34 20 304 192 -0.031 25.735    5  0.174    5  0.170    1  0.278    5 0.5293   15  0.492    3  0.323    5  0.233    7  0.183
DODGERS      34 21 310 242 -0.009 26.729    6  0.171    6  0.168    5  0.174    6 0.5277   10  0.590    5  0.309   15  0.039    6  0.228
CARDINALS    31 24 263 220  0.034 27.845    7  0.112    7  0.113    6  0.147    7 0.5197    7  0.625    4  0.316   17 -0.021   23 -0.182
PADRES       31 22 225 205 -0.025 25.652    8  0.111    8  0.112   13  0.040    8 0.5175   16  0.436   15  0.034   14  0.045   29 -0.378
GIANTS       31 24 239 199  0.021 27.513    9  0.105    9  0.106    8  0.110    9 0.5174   21  0.308   17 -0.004    6  0.224   18 -0.060
MARINERS     30 23 247 220 -0.003 26.108   10  0.089   10  0.093   12  0.069   10 0.5153   13  0.552    9  0.169   18 -0.031   20 -0.101
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       29 25 225 191  0.037 27.445   11  0.078   11  0.076    7  0.121   11 0.5129   18  0.427   13  0.108   10  0.134   19 -0.061
TWINS        30 24 216 185 -0.012 26.390   12  0.076   12  0.075   10  0.086   12 0.5118   24  0.258   21 -0.069    4  0.241   15 -0.028
GUARDIANS    29 25 216 236  0.009 26.985   13  0.052   13  0.061   21 -0.033   13 0.5116    9  0.617   11  0.127   23 -0.194   28 -0.318
ROYALS       29 27 185 191  0.006 27.916   14  0.027   14  0.032   19 -0.014   15 0.5023   29  0.066   27 -0.315    2  0.287   22 -0.107
DIAMONDBACKS 27 28 278 275  0.070 28.660   15  0.021   15  0.026   11  0.070   14 0.5036    5  0.685    6  0.297   21 -0.158   11  0.093
BREWERS      28 28 240 240  0.005 27.856   16 -0.001   16  0.002   15  0.007   16 0.4973    6  0.640    8  0.191   22 -0.177   30 -0.430
RAYS         27 27 221 206 -0.039 25.910   17 -0.022   17 -0.023   17 -0.003   18 0.4937   19  0.356   22 -0.078   13  0.071   13  0.013
RANGERS      27 29 185 195  0.003 27.852   18 -0.023   18 -0.024   20 -0.023   20 0.4933   28  0.103   26 -0.297    3  0.251   27 -0.318
BLUE JAYS    26 28 207 235 -0.000 26.840   19 -0.027   19 -0.028   22 -0.067   17 0.4962   27  0.163   25 -0.296    9  0.162    3  0.316
REDS         28 28 262 229 -0.058 26.404   20 -0.032   20 -0.034   14  0.022   22 0.4926   14  0.540   12  0.110   19 -0.066   14 -0.011
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ANGELS       25 29 224 279  0.007 27.142   21 -0.047   21 -0.049   24 -0.163   19 0.4935    2  0.752   10  0.132   30 -0.457   25 -0.201
BRAVES       25 28 216 207 -0.017 25.890   22 -0.050   22 -0.052   16  0.002   21 0.4931   22  0.292   23 -0.125   11  0.129   21 -0.102
RED SOX      27 30 270 257 -0.040 27.313   23 -0.061   23 -0.064   18 -0.005   23 0.4875    4  0.697    7  0.235   25 -0.245    9  0.106
NATIONALS    24 30 226 282 -0.044 26.007   24 -0.106   24 -0.106   28 -0.188   24 0.4839   11  0.573   20 -0.069   26 -0.308   10  0.099
ATHLETICS    23 32 232 319 -0.003 27.444   25 -0.123   25 -0.123   27 -0.185   25 0.4798    8  0.621   19 -0.020   28 -0.350    4  0.290
MARLINS      21 32 219 297  0.028 27.135   26 -0.136   26 -0.134   25 -0.179   26 0.4785    3  0.701   14  0.065   29 -0.422   17 -0.049
PIRATES      20 36 173 242  0.042 28.925   27 -0.192   27 -0.188   26 -0.179   27 0.4708   30 -0.011   29 -0.534    8  0.176    8  0.132
ORIOLES      19 35 209 304  0.005 27.128   28 -0.216   28 -0.215   29 -0.247   28 0.4660   17  0.433   24 -0.254   24 -0.239    2  0.434
WHITE SOX    17 38 187 240  0.007 27.618   29 -0.275   29 -0.282   23 -0.162   29 0.4546   25  0.218   28 -0.349   16  0.025   12  0.032
ROCKIES       9 46 176 350  0.050 28.918   30 -0.489   30 -0.488   30 -0.463   30 0.4255   23  0.265   30 -0.612   27 -0.314    1  0.615

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      34 21 310 242 -0.009 26.729    6  0.171    6  0.168    5  0.174    6 0.5277   10  0.590    5  0.309   15  0.039    6  0.228
PADRES       31 22 225 205 -0.025 25.652    8  0.111    8  0.112   13  0.040    8 0.5175   16  0.436   15  0.034   14  0.045   29 -0.378
GIANTS       31 24 239 199  0.021 27.513    9  0.105    9  0.106    8  0.110    9 0.5174   21  0.308   17 -0.004    6  0.224   18 -0.060
DIAMONDBACKS 27 28 278 275  0.070 28.660   15  0.021   15  0.026   11  0.070   14 0.5036    5  0.685    6  0.297   21 -0.158   11  0.093
ROCKIES       9 46 176 350  0.050 28.918   30 -0.489   30 -0.488   30 -0.463   30 0.4255   23  0.265   30 -0.612   27 -0.314    1  0.615

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         34 21 328 234  0.014 27.199    4  0.186    4  0.183    2  0.240    4 0.5294    1  0.789    1  0.573   20 -0.092   16 -0.033
CARDINALS    31 24 263 220  0.034 27.845    7  0.112    7  0.113    6  0.147    7 0.5197    7  0.625    4  0.316   17 -0.021   23 -0.182
BREWERS      28 28 240 240  0.005 27.856   16 -0.001   16  0.002   15  0.007   16 0.4973    6  0.640    8  0.191   22 -0.177   30 -0.430
REDS         28 28 262 229 -0.058 26.404   20 -0.032   20 -0.034   14  0.022   22 0.4926   14  0.540   12  0.110   19 -0.066   14 -0.011
PIRATES      20 36 173 242  0.042 28.925   27 -0.192   27 -0.188   26 -0.179   27 0.4708   30 -0.011   29 -0.534    8  0.176    8  0.132

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         34 21 239 177  0.039 27.846    2  0.199    2  0.197    4  0.201    2 0.5317   26  0.191   18 -0.007    1  0.408   24 -0.195
PHILLIES     35 19 262 218 -0.054 25.385    3  0.188    3  0.191    9  0.099    3 0.5306   20  0.329   16  0.003    7  0.196    5  0.268
BRAVES       25 28 216 207 -0.017 25.890   22 -0.050   22 -0.052   16  0.002   21 0.4931   22  0.292   23 -0.125   11  0.129   21 -0.102
NATIONALS    24 30 226 282 -0.044 26.007   24 -0.106   24 -0.106   28 -0.188   24 0.4839   11  0.573   20 -0.069   26 -0.308   10  0.099
MARLINS      21 32 219 297  0.028 27.135   26 -0.136   26 -0.134   25 -0.179   26 0.4785    3  0.701   14  0.065   29 -0.422   17 -0.049

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARINERS     30 23 247 220 -0.003 26.108   10  0.089   10  0.093   12  0.069   10 0.5153   13  0.552    9  0.169   18 -0.031   20 -0.101
ASTROS       29 25 225 191  0.037 27.445   11  0.078   11  0.076    7  0.121   11 0.5129   18  0.427   13  0.108   10  0.134   19 -0.061
RANGERS      27 29 185 195  0.003 27.852   18 -0.023   18 -0.024   20 -0.023   20 0.4933   28  0.103   26 -0.297    3  0.251   27 -0.318
ANGELS       25 29 224 279  0.007 27.142   21 -0.047   21 -0.049   24 -0.163   19 0.4935    2  0.752   10  0.132   30 -0.457   25 -0.201
ATHLETICS    23 32 232 319 -0.003 27.444   25 -0.123   25 -0.123   27 -0.185   25 0.4798    8  0.621   19 -0.020   28 -0.350    4  0.290

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       36 20 284 201 -0.002 27.349    1  0.214    1  0.213    3  0.232    1 0.5344   12  0.564    2  0.342   12  0.121   26 -0.235
TWINS        30 24 216 185 -0.012 26.390   12  0.076   12  0.075   10  0.086   12 0.5118   24  0.258   21 -0.069    4  0.241   15 -0.028
GUARDIANS    29 25 216 236  0.009 26.985   13  0.052   13  0.061   21 -0.033   13 0.5116    9  0.617   11  0.127   23 -0.194   28 -0.318
ROYALS       29 27 185 191  0.006 27.916   14  0.027   14  0.032   19 -0.014   15 0.5023   29  0.066   27 -0.315    2  0.287   22 -0.107
WHITE SOX    17 38 187 240  0.007 27.618   29 -0.275   29 -0.282   23 -0.162   29 0.4546   25  0.218   28 -0.349   16  0.025   12  0.032

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      34 20 304 192 -0.031 25.735    5  0.174    5  0.170    1  0.278    5 0.5293   15  0.492    3  0.323    5  0.233    7  0.183
RAYS         27 27 221 206 -0.039 25.910   17 -0.022   17 -0.023   17 -0.003   18 0.4937   19  0.356   22 -0.078   13  0.071   13  0.013
BLUE JAYS    26 28 207 235 -0.000 26.840   19 -0.027   19 -0.028   22 -0.067   17 0.4962   27  0.163   25 -0.296    9  0.162    3  0.316
RED SOX      27 30 270 257 -0.040 27.313   23 -0.061   23 -0.064   18 -0.005   23 0.4875    4  0.697    7  0.235   25 -0.245    9  0.106
ORIOLES      19 35 209 304  0.005 27.128   28 -0.216   28 -0.215   29 -0.247   28 0.4660   17  0.433   24 -0.254   24 -0.239    2  0.434

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 141 137 0.507    1  0.070
AL CENTRAL 141 134 0.513    2  0.031
NL WEST    132 141 0.484    3 -0.011
AL EAST    133 140 0.487    4 -0.014
NL EAST    139 130 0.517    5 -0.020
AL WEST    134 138 0.493    6 -0.052

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.101 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.015 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed May 28 05:30:06 2025
games through: Tue May 27 2025

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