Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         16 10 163 120  0.238 15.399    1  0.182    2  0.171    1  0.224    1 0.5611    2  0.880    1  0.659   22 -0.210    6  0.343 P
PADRES       17  8 103  74  0.097 13.269    2  0.178    1  0.176    2  0.165    2 0.5506   27 -0.013   23 -0.187    1  0.516   25 -0.245 P
GIANTS       16  9 123  96  0.173 14.260    3  0.169    3  0.167    3  0.160    3 0.5467   21  0.374   15  0.107    7  0.213   23 -0.189 P
METS         18  7 105  69 -0.074 11.756    4  0.157    4  0.154    7  0.117    5 0.5404   29 -0.039   24 -0.252    2  0.485   22 -0.164 P
DODGERS      16  9 116 108  0.077 13.243    5  0.142    5  0.141    8  0.108    4 0.5443   20  0.375   16  0.055    8  0.161   10  0.129 P
DIAMONDBACKS 14 10 131 111  0.128 13.181    6  0.100    6  0.101    5  0.124    6 0.5312   17  0.449   10  0.136   11  0.111   21 -0.131 P
YANKEES      15 10 137 106  0.063 13.153    7  0.098    7  0.101    4  0.133    7 0.5274   10  0.597    5  0.281   15 -0.014    5  0.370 P
TIGERS       15 10 112  82  0.041 12.849    8  0.084    8  0.088    6  0.119    9 0.5223   19  0.425   13  0.110   10  0.128   18 -0.087 P
RANGERS      14 10  77  91  0.017 12.380    9  0.069    9  0.073   16 -0.029    8 0.5244   25  0.087   25 -0.310    5  0.251   27 -0.419 P
MARINERS     13 11 109 106  0.045 12.577   10  0.049   10  0.045   12  0.021   10 0.5186    5  0.744    4  0.313   26 -0.270   28 -0.467 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GUARDIANS    14 10  96 101 -0.075 11.492   11  0.047   11  0.041   18 -0.046   12 0.5119    8  0.653    9  0.155   23 -0.247   29 -0.501 P
BREWERS      13 12 127 113  0.087 13.358   12  0.043   12  0.039    9  0.103   13 0.5098    3  0.812    2  0.465   24 -0.259   26 -0.358 P
ASTROS       13 11  92  81  0.016 12.250   13  0.042   13  0.037   11  0.055   11 0.5141   22  0.323   21 -0.041    9  0.152   16 -0.073 P
PHILLIES     13 12 111 115 -0.005 12.638   14  0.019   14  0.014   14 -0.015   14 0.5057   15  0.464   17  0.011   16 -0.040    8  0.304 P
REDS         12 13 128  97  0.058 13.092   15  0.003   15 -0.003   10  0.099   15 0.5047   14  0.504    8  0.160   12  0.037   14  0.006 P
ATHLETICS    11 13 105 123  0.061 12.794   16 -0.014   16 -0.020   15 -0.028   16 0.4975   11  0.596   11  0.120   20 -0.175    4  0.372 P
ANGELS       11 12  91 109 -0.011 11.645   17 -0.019   17 -0.026   20 -0.082   17 0.4918    6  0.701    7  0.167   27 -0.331   20 -0.127 P
RED SOX      14 12 121 124 -0.208 11.095   18 -0.030   18 -0.040   25 -0.097   21 0.4831   12  0.542   19 -0.001   21 -0.193    2  0.423 P
MARLINS      11 13 106 127 -0.020 12.084   19 -0.036   19 -0.044   22 -0.084   19 0.4890    4  0.762    6  0.226   29 -0.395   13  0.084 P
BLUE JAYS    12 13  88 104 -0.095 11.822   20 -0.042   20 -0.050   23 -0.086   18 0.4909   30 -0.102   30 -0.497    3  0.325    3  0.378 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES       10 14  92 104  0.007 12.300   21 -0.055   21 -0.066   17 -0.046   22 0.4830   18  0.442   20 -0.040   17 -0.052   19 -0.102 P
NATIONALS    11 13 104 116 -0.091 11.343   22 -0.055   22 -0.067   21 -0.083   20 0.4837   13  0.533   18  0.005   19 -0.171   11  0.105 P
ROYALS       10 14  71  94 -0.011 12.294   23 -0.060   23 -0.072   27 -0.116   23 0.4802   26 -0.003   28 -0.460    6  0.229   17 -0.085 P
CARDINALS    10 15 120 118 -0.045 12.214   24 -0.091   24 -0.102   13 -0.014   25 0.4727    1  0.895    3  0.437   30 -0.465   30 -0.520 P
PIRATES      10 15  90 106 -0.061 12.172   25 -0.104   25 -0.107   26 -0.105   26 0.4682   28 -0.025   29 -0.464    4  0.254    9  0.210 P
ORIOLES       9 14 101 129 -0.075 11.103   26 -0.105   26 -0.108   28 -0.126   24 0.4740    7  0.686   14  0.108   28 -0.360    7  0.325 P
TWINS         9 15  85 100 -0.060 11.668   27 -0.118   27 -0.121   24 -0.088   28 0.4583   16  0.458   22 -0.068   18 -0.108   12  0.098 P
RAYS         10 14 102  97 -0.194 10.367   28 -0.126   28 -0.130   19 -0.073   27 0.4637    9  0.642   12  0.118   25 -0.264   24 -0.208 P
ROCKIES       4 18  71 123  0.038 11.809   29 -0.242   29 -0.235   30 -0.216   29 0.4353   23  0.164   26 -0.439   14  0.007    1  0.551 P
WHITE SOX     5 19  75 108 -0.132 11.164   30 -0.285   30 -0.281   29 -0.214   30 0.4210   24  0.136   27 -0.458   13  0.030   15 -0.023 P

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES       17  8 103  74  0.097 13.269    2  0.178    1  0.176    2  0.165    2 0.5506   27 -0.013   23 -0.187    1  0.516   25 -0.245 P
GIANTS       16  9 123  96  0.173 14.260    3  0.169    3  0.167    3  0.160    3 0.5467   21  0.374   15  0.107    7  0.213   23 -0.189 P
DODGERS      16  9 116 108  0.077 13.243    5  0.142    5  0.141    8  0.108    4 0.5443   20  0.375   16  0.055    8  0.161   10  0.129 P
DIAMONDBACKS 14 10 131 111  0.128 13.181    6  0.100    6  0.101    5  0.124    6 0.5312   17  0.449   10  0.136   11  0.111   21 -0.131 P
ROCKIES       4 18  71 123  0.038 11.809   29 -0.242   29 -0.235   30 -0.216   29 0.4353   23  0.164   26 -0.439   14  0.007    1  0.551 P

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         16 10 163 120  0.238 15.399    1  0.182    2  0.171    1  0.224    1 0.5611    2  0.880    1  0.659   22 -0.210    6  0.343 P
BREWERS      13 12 127 113  0.087 13.358   12  0.043   12  0.039    9  0.103   13 0.5098    3  0.812    2  0.465   24 -0.259   26 -0.358 P
REDS         12 13 128  97  0.058 13.092   15  0.003   15 -0.003   10  0.099   15 0.5047   14  0.504    8  0.160   12  0.037   14  0.006 P
CARDINALS    10 15 120 118 -0.045 12.214   24 -0.091   24 -0.102   13 -0.014   25 0.4727    1  0.895    3  0.437   30 -0.465   30 -0.520 P
PIRATES      10 15  90 106 -0.061 12.172   25 -0.104   25 -0.107   26 -0.105   26 0.4682   28 -0.025   29 -0.464    4  0.254    9  0.210 P

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         18  7 105  69 -0.074 11.756    4  0.157    4  0.154    7  0.117    5 0.5404   29 -0.039   24 -0.252    2  0.485   22 -0.164 P
PHILLIES     13 12 111 115 -0.005 12.638   14  0.019   14  0.014   14 -0.015   14 0.5057   15  0.464   17  0.011   16 -0.040    8  0.304 P
MARLINS      11 13 106 127 -0.020 12.084   19 -0.036   19 -0.044   22 -0.084   19 0.4890    4  0.762    6  0.226   29 -0.395   13  0.084 P
BRAVES       10 14  92 104  0.007 12.300   21 -0.055   21 -0.066   17 -0.046   22 0.4830   18  0.442   20 -0.040   17 -0.052   19 -0.102 P
NATIONALS    11 13 104 116 -0.091 11.343   22 -0.055   22 -0.067   21 -0.083   20 0.4837   13  0.533   18  0.005   19 -0.171   11  0.105 P

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS      14 10  77  91  0.017 12.380    9  0.069    9  0.073   16 -0.029    8 0.5244   25  0.087   25 -0.310    5  0.251   27 -0.419 P
MARINERS     13 11 109 106  0.045 12.577   10  0.049   10  0.045   12  0.021   10 0.5186    5  0.744    4  0.313   26 -0.270   28 -0.467 P
ASTROS       13 11  92  81  0.016 12.250   13  0.042   13  0.037   11  0.055   11 0.5141   22  0.323   21 -0.041    9  0.152   16 -0.073 P
ATHLETICS    11 13 105 123  0.061 12.794   16 -0.014   16 -0.020   15 -0.028   16 0.4975   11  0.596   11  0.120   20 -0.175    4  0.372 P
ANGELS       11 12  91 109 -0.011 11.645   17 -0.019   17 -0.026   20 -0.082   17 0.4918    6  0.701    7  0.167   27 -0.331   20 -0.127 P

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       15 10 112  82  0.041 12.849    8  0.084    8  0.088    6  0.119    9 0.5223   19  0.425   13  0.110   10  0.128   18 -0.087 P
GUARDIANS    14 10  96 101 -0.075 11.492   11  0.047   11  0.041   18 -0.046   12 0.5119    8  0.653    9  0.155   23 -0.247   29 -0.501 P
ROYALS       10 14  71  94 -0.011 12.294   23 -0.060   23 -0.072   27 -0.116   23 0.4802   26 -0.003   28 -0.460    6  0.229   17 -0.085 P
TWINS         9 15  85 100 -0.060 11.668   27 -0.118   27 -0.121   24 -0.088   28 0.4583   16  0.458   22 -0.068   18 -0.108   12  0.098 P
WHITE SOX     5 19  75 108 -0.132 11.164   30 -0.285   30 -0.281   29 -0.214   30 0.4210   24  0.136   27 -0.458   13  0.030   15 -0.023 P

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      15 10 137 106  0.063 13.153    7  0.098    7  0.101    4  0.133    7 0.5274   10  0.597    5  0.281   15 -0.014    5  0.370 P
RED SOX      14 12 121 124 -0.208 11.095   18 -0.030   18 -0.040   25 -0.097   21 0.4831   12  0.542   19 -0.001   21 -0.193    2  0.423 P
BLUE JAYS    12 13  88 104 -0.095 11.822   20 -0.042   20 -0.050   23 -0.086   18 0.4909   30 -0.102   30 -0.497    3  0.325    3  0.378 P
ORIOLES       9 14 101 129 -0.075 11.103   26 -0.105   26 -0.108   28 -0.126   24 0.4740    7  0.686   14  0.108   28 -0.360    7  0.325 P
RAYS         10 14 102  97 -0.194 10.367   28 -0.126   28 -0.130   19 -0.073   27 0.4637    9  0.642   12  0.118   25 -0.264   24 -0.208 P

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL WEST    67 54 0.554    1  0.155
NL CENTRAL 61 65 0.484    2  0.136
AL WEST    62 57 0.521    3 -0.022
NL EAST    63 59 0.516    4 -0.045
AL EAST    60 63 0.488    5 -0.106
AL CENTRAL 53 68 0.438    6 -0.146

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.193 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.021 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Apr 24 05:30:10 2025
games through: Wed Apr 23 2025

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