Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ANGELS        98  67 779 645  0.032 84.951    1  0.176    1  0.126    2  0.133    1 0.5250    1  0.607    1  0.323   19 -0.058   27 -0.238
ORIOLES       99  70 738 621  0.024 86.526    2  0.119    2  0.114    3  0.112    2 0.5243   17  0.388    5  0.104    5  0.120   18 -0.047
ROYALS       100  77 720 680  0.023 90.602    3  0.043    3  0.090    6  0.058    3 0.5191   27  0.264   22 -0.053    3  0.170    6  0.081
NATIONALS     97  69 695 564 -0.041 80.693    4  0.031    4  0.081    4  0.098    4 0.5157   26  0.265   18 -0.012    1  0.209   12  0.020
ATHLETICS     88  75 737 581  0.030 83.791    5  0.016    6  0.062    1  0.136    6 0.5128   21  0.346    6  0.092    2  0.180   13  0.019
MARINERS      87  75 634 554  0.038 83.796    6  0.013    7  0.061    5  0.076    7 0.5117   20  0.363   10  0.046    8  0.106   30 -0.353
TIGERS        90  75 767 726  0.019 84.172    7  0.013    5  0.062    9  0.047    5 0.5140    2  0.584    2  0.216   26 -0.121    9  0.053
DODGERS       93  71 723 629 -0.056 78.711    8  0.010    8  0.052    7  0.057    8 0.5104   10  0.465    4  0.116   13 -0.002   22 -0.074
GIANTS       100  80 736 668 -0.040 87.594    9  0.008    9  0.048   10  0.029   10 0.5089   22  0.318   21 -0.038    9  0.097   14  0.012
CARDINALS     94  77 653 642 -0.030 83.955   10  0.007   10  0.044   14  0.006    9 0.5095   25  0.265   25 -0.105    6  0.116    7  0.069
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES       84  78 633 664  0.035 83.781   11  0.006   11  0.037   15  0.002   12 0.5082   14  0.412   14  0.015   14 -0.011   23 -0.104
INDIANS       85  77 669 653  0.014 82.387   12  0.006   12  0.035   11  0.024   11 0.5084   18  0.370   16  0.001   12  0.047   21 -0.061
PIRATES       89  75 687 642 -0.038 79.952   13  0.005   13  0.031   13  0.014   13 0.5071   12  0.451    8  0.061   16 -0.032   19 -0.049
BLUE JAYS     83  79 723 686  0.029 83.293   14  0.005   14  0.027    8  0.049   14 0.5070    3  0.542    3  0.179   21 -0.080   10  0.042
BREWERS       82  80 650 657 -0.038 79.014   15  0.003   15 -0.012   17 -0.025   16 0.4979   15  0.410   19 -0.014   17 -0.036   11  0.031
RAYS          77  85 612 625  0.034 83.678   16  0.003   16 -0.014   12  0.014   15 0.4987   29  0.244   26 -0.113    4  0.142   15  0.001
METS          79  83 629 618 -0.025 79.942   17  0.002   18 -0.026   16 -0.013   17 0.4936    9  0.472    9  0.052   20 -0.079   29 -0.308
BRAVES        79  83 573 597 -0.023 80.090   18  0.002   17 -0.025   19 -0.038   18 0.4932   28  0.255   28 -0.157   10  0.081   25 -0.134
MARLINS       77  85 645 674 -0.022 80.123   19  0.000   19 -0.039   21 -0.044   21 0.4902   11  0.462   15  0.013   24 -0.101   17 -0.019
WHITE SOX     73  89 660 758  0.031 83.592   20 -0.001   20 -0.044   24 -0.062   19 0.4920   13  0.438   20 -0.026   22 -0.097    4  0.162
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES        77  85 535 577 -0.039 79.062   21 -0.002   21 -0.048   26 -0.070   23 0.4890   30  0.174   30 -0.252    7  0.111   28 -0.279
RED SOX       71  91 634 715  0.047 84.634   22 -0.003   22 -0.051   23 -0.050   20 0.4905   19  0.363   23 -0.080   15 -0.020    5  0.145
REDS          76  86 595 612 -0.034 79.352   23 -0.003   23 -0.052   18 -0.033   22 0.4902   24  0.283   27 -0.130   11  0.063   20 -0.053
ASTROS        70  92 629 723  0.059 85.392   24 -0.003   24 -0.053   22 -0.048   25 0.4880    8  0.474   13  0.019   25 -0.116   16 -0.005
PHILLIES      73  89 619 687 -0.011 80.863   25 -0.008   25 -0.064   25 -0.065   27 0.4856    6  0.501   12  0.026   27 -0.157   26 -0.196
TWINS         70  92 715 777  0.031 83.555   26 -0.010   26 -0.066   20 -0.043   24 0.4882    4  0.525    7  0.071   28 -0.157    3  0.240
CUBS          74  90 619 712 -0.027 80.870   27 -0.013   27 -0.071   28 -0.086   26 0.4860    7  0.483   17 -0.010   29 -0.161   24 -0.116
RANGERS       67  95 637 773  0.063 85.706   28 -0.015   28 -0.072   27 -0.072   28 0.4838    5  0.521   11  0.038   30 -0.182    8  0.067
ROCKIES       66  96 755 818 -0.042 78.899   29 -0.189   29 -0.128   29 -0.090   29 0.4732   16  0.406   24 -0.082   23 -0.097    1  0.749
DIAMONDBACKS  64  96 609 732 -0.032 78.617   30 -0.220   30 -0.131   30 -0.135   30 0.4717   23  0.294   29 -0.222   18 -0.049    2  0.341
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS       93  71 723 629 -0.056 78.711    8  0.010    8  0.052    7  0.057    8 0.5104   10  0.465    4  0.116   13 -0.002   22 -0.074
GIANTS       100  80 736 668 -0.040 87.594    9  0.008    9  0.048   10  0.029   10 0.5089   22  0.318   21 -0.038    9  0.097   14  0.012
PADRES        77  85 535 577 -0.039 79.062   21 -0.002   21 -0.048   26 -0.070   23 0.4890   30  0.174   30 -0.252    7  0.111   28 -0.279
ROCKIES       66  96 755 818 -0.042 78.899   29 -0.189   29 -0.128   29 -0.090   29 0.4732   16  0.406   24 -0.082   23 -0.097    1  0.749
DIAMONDBACKS  64  96 609 732 -0.032 78.617   30 -0.220   30 -0.131   30 -0.135   30 0.4717   23  0.294   29 -0.222   18 -0.049    2  0.341

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CARDINALS     94  77 653 642 -0.030 83.955   10  0.007   10  0.044   14  0.006    9 0.5095   25  0.265   25 -0.105    6  0.116    7  0.069
PIRATES       89  75 687 642 -0.038 79.952   13  0.005   13  0.031   13  0.014   13 0.5071   12  0.451    8  0.061   16 -0.032   19 -0.049
BREWERS       82  80 650 657 -0.038 79.014   15  0.003   15 -0.012   17 -0.025   16 0.4979   15  0.410   19 -0.014   17 -0.036   11  0.031
REDS          76  86 595 612 -0.034 79.352   23 -0.003   23 -0.052   18 -0.033   22 0.4902   24  0.283   27 -0.130   11  0.063   20 -0.053
CUBS          74  90 619 712 -0.027 80.870   27 -0.013   27 -0.071   28 -0.086   26 0.4860    7  0.483   17 -0.010   29 -0.161   24 -0.116

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NATIONALS     97  69 695 564 -0.041 80.693    4  0.031    4  0.081    4  0.098    4 0.5157   26  0.265   18 -0.012    1  0.209   12  0.020
METS          79  83 629 618 -0.025 79.942   17  0.002   18 -0.026   16 -0.013   17 0.4936    9  0.472    9  0.052   20 -0.079   29 -0.308
BRAVES        79  83 573 597 -0.023 80.090   18  0.002   17 -0.025   19 -0.038   18 0.4932   28  0.255   28 -0.157   10  0.081   25 -0.134
MARLINS       77  85 645 674 -0.022 80.123   19  0.000   19 -0.039   21 -0.044   21 0.4902   11  0.462   15  0.013   24 -0.101   17 -0.019
PHILLIES      73  89 619 687 -0.011 80.863   25 -0.008   25 -0.064   25 -0.065   27 0.4856    6  0.501   12  0.026   27 -0.157   26 -0.196

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ANGELS        98  67 779 645  0.032 84.951    1  0.176    1  0.126    2  0.133    1 0.5250    1  0.607    1  0.323   19 -0.058   27 -0.238
ATHLETICS     88  75 737 581  0.030 83.791    5  0.016    6  0.062    1  0.136    6 0.5128   21  0.346    6  0.092    2  0.180   13  0.019
MARINERS      87  75 634 554  0.038 83.796    6  0.013    7  0.061    5  0.076    7 0.5117   20  0.363   10  0.046    8  0.106   30 -0.353
ASTROS        70  92 629 723  0.059 85.392   24 -0.003   24 -0.053   22 -0.048   25 0.4880    8  0.474   13  0.019   25 -0.116   16 -0.005
RANGERS       67  95 637 773  0.063 85.706   28 -0.015   28 -0.072   27 -0.072   28 0.4838    5  0.521   11  0.038   30 -0.182    8  0.067

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROYALS       100  77 720 680  0.023 90.602    3  0.043    3  0.090    6  0.058    3 0.5191   27  0.264   22 -0.053    3  0.170    6  0.081
TIGERS        90  75 767 726  0.019 84.172    7  0.013    5  0.062    9  0.047    5 0.5140    2  0.584    2  0.216   26 -0.121    9  0.053
INDIANS       85  77 669 653  0.014 82.387   12  0.006   12  0.035   11  0.024   11 0.5084   18  0.370   16  0.001   12  0.047   21 -0.061
WHITE SOX     73  89 660 758  0.031 83.592   20 -0.001   20 -0.044   24 -0.062   19 0.4920   13  0.438   20 -0.026   22 -0.097    4  0.162
TWINS         70  92 715 777  0.031 83.555   26 -0.010   26 -0.066   20 -0.043   24 0.4882    4  0.525    7  0.071   28 -0.157    3  0.240

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ORIOLES       99  70 738 621  0.024 86.526    2  0.119    2  0.114    3  0.112    2 0.5243   17  0.388    5  0.104    5  0.120   18 -0.047
YANKEES       84  78 633 664  0.035 83.781   11  0.006   11  0.037   15  0.002   12 0.5082   14  0.412   14  0.015   14 -0.011   23 -0.104
BLUE JAYS     83  79 723 686  0.029 83.293   14  0.005   14  0.027    8  0.049   14 0.5070    3  0.542    3  0.179   21 -0.080   10  0.042
RAYS          77  85 612 625  0.034 83.678   16  0.003   16 -0.014   12  0.014   15 0.4987   29  0.244   26 -0.113    4  0.142   15  0.001
RED SOX       71  91 634 715  0.047 84.634   22 -0.003   22 -0.051   23 -0.050   20 0.4905   19  0.363   23 -0.080   15 -0.020    5  0.145

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    410 404 0.504    1  0.079
AL EAST    414 403 0.507    2  0.044
AL CENTRAL 418 410 0.505    3  0.009
NL EAST    405 409 0.498    4 -0.022
NL CENTRAL 415 408 0.504    5 -0.042
NL WEST    400 428 0.483    6 -0.073

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.064 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.008 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:04:57 2024
games through: Wed Oct 29 2014

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