Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     36  6 5124 4689 -0.030 19.185    1  0.781    1  0.805    3  0.564    2 0.5784    4  4.029    2  0.952    9  0.175
THUNDER       35  8 4971 4449  0.098 21.715    2  0.770    2  0.780    1  0.830    1 0.5785   24  3.907    4  0.591    1  1.069
CELTICS       30 13 5060 4647 -0.001 20.412    3  0.411    3  0.400    2  0.579    3 0.5445   19  3.941    5  0.508    2  0.650
ROCKETS       28 14 4780 4529  0.073 21.381    4  0.402    4  0.397    5  0.379    4 0.5409   22  3.918   12  0.194    5  0.563
GRIZZLIES     28 15 5292 4941 -0.018 20.320    5  0.305    5  0.291    4  0.477    5 0.5327    1  4.070    1  1.082   20 -0.128
NUGGETS       26 16 5046 4853  0.066 21.566    6  0.298    6  0.291    6  0.367    6 0.5312    3  4.030    3  0.760   16 -0.026
KNICKS        28 16 5150 4886 -0.069 20.160    7  0.237    7  0.225    7  0.272    7 0.5243   11  3.982    6  0.412   10  0.132
CLIPPERS      24 18 4598 4479  0.054 21.444    8  0.197    8  0.184    8  0.246    8 0.5189   29  3.879   17 -0.135    3  0.627
BUCKS         25 17 4771 4635 -0.042 19.953    9  0.169    9  0.154   10  0.193    9 0.5182   20  3.940   13  0.119    8  0.267
PACERS        24 19 4952 4926 -0.008 21.385   10  0.127   11  0.119   13  0.121   10 0.5130    6  4.001    7  0.358   19 -0.115
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        22 18 4449 4554 -0.002 20.362   11  0.126   10  0.119   20 -0.171   11 0.5128   15  3.949   20 -0.202   21 -0.140
MAVERICKS     23 20 4952 4807  0.035 21.661   12  0.114   12  0.096   11  0.177   12 0.5097   13  3.965   11  0.228   11  0.127
TIMBERWOLVES  22 21 4729 4645  0.065 22.372   13  0.086   14  0.070    9  0.204   13 0.5076   28  3.889   16 -0.127    6  0.535
WARRIORS      21 21 4651 4669  0.075 22.304   14  0.078   13  0.074   17 -0.083   15 0.5053   21  3.927   22 -0.226   12  0.061
HAWKS         22 20 4916 4999 -0.016 21.153   15  0.053   15  0.052   16 -0.080   14 0.5059    5  4.023   10  0.272   25 -0.433
MAGIC         23 21 4584 4589 -0.004 22.067   16  0.051   16  0.049   18 -0.091   16 0.5049   30  3.816   30 -0.774    4  0.592
PISTONS       22 21 4823 4865 -0.025 21.323   17  0.009   17  0.008   15 -0.041   17 0.5011   17  3.947   14 -0.080   15 -0.002
KINGS         22 20 4900 4783 -0.054 19.967   18  0.006   18  0.001   12  0.148   18 0.5004    9  3.982    9  0.290   14  0.006
HEAT          21 20 4560 4510 -0.037 19.897   19 -0.006   19 -0.005   14  0.035   19 0.5001   23  3.908   19 -0.200    7  0.269
SUNS          21 21 4733 4806 -0.067 20.265   20 -0.055   20 -0.048   21 -0.186   20 0.4962   12  3.972   15 -0.098   23 -0.275
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SPURS         19 22 4577 4635 -0.014 20.563   21 -0.088   21 -0.082   19 -0.101   21 0.4893   18  3.942   18 -0.167   17 -0.035
BULLS         19 25 5153 5279 -0.049 21.748   22 -0.180   22 -0.175   22 -0.215   22 0.4806    2  4.054    8  0.305   29 -0.734
76ERS         15 26 4406 4575 -0.033 20.579   23 -0.307   23 -0.308   23 -0.260   23 0.4672   26  3.899   26 -0.542   13  0.022
NETS          14 29 4585 4903  0.028 22.910   24 -0.342   24 -0.334   28 -0.510   24 0.4640   25  3.903   29 -0.771   22 -0.248
TRAIL BLAZERS 14 28 4531 4901 -0.019 21.847   25 -0.360   25 -0.350   29 -0.551   25 0.4606   14  3.958   25 -0.533   28 -0.569
HORNETS       11 28 4177 4388 -0.028 19.791   26 -0.487   26 -0.484   24 -0.339   26 0.4488   27  3.896   28 -0.634   18 -0.045
RAPTORS       10 32 4661 4978  0.098 23.442   27 -0.506   27 -0.502   25 -0.391   27 0.4481   10  3.982   23 -0.249   26 -0.532
PELICANS      12 32 4806 5158 -0.069 22.258   28 -0.558   28 -0.554   27 -0.464   28 0.4452   16  3.948   24 -0.497   24 -0.431
JAZZ          10 31 4569 4846 -0.032 20.778   29 -0.579   29 -0.578   26 -0.391   29 0.4387    8  3.987   21 -0.224   27 -0.558
WIZARDS        6 35 4452 5034  0.047 22.916   30 -0.754   30 -0.772   30 -0.804   30 0.4241    7  3.994   27 -0.601   30 -1.008
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      24 18 4598 4479  0.054 21.444    8  0.197    8  0.184    8  0.246    8 0.5189   29  3.879   17 -0.135    3  0.627
LAKERS        22 18 4449 4554 -0.002 20.362   11  0.126   10  0.119   20 -0.171   11 0.5128   15  3.949   20 -0.202   21 -0.140
WARRIORS      21 21 4651 4669  0.075 22.304   14  0.078   13  0.074   17 -0.083   15 0.5053   21  3.927   22 -0.226   12  0.061
KINGS         22 20 4900 4783 -0.054 19.967   18  0.006   18  0.001   12  0.148   18 0.5004    9  3.982    9  0.290   14  0.006
SUNS          21 21 4733 4806 -0.067 20.265   20 -0.055   20 -0.048   21 -0.186   20 0.4962   12  3.972   15 -0.098   23 -0.275

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       35  8 4971 4449  0.098 21.715    2  0.770    2  0.780    1  0.830    1 0.5785   24  3.907    4  0.591    1  1.069
NUGGETS       26 16 5046 4853  0.066 21.566    6  0.298    6  0.291    6  0.367    6 0.5312    3  4.030    3  0.760   16 -0.026
TIMBERWOLVES  22 21 4729 4645  0.065 22.372   13  0.086   14  0.070    9  0.204   13 0.5076   28  3.889   16 -0.127    6  0.535
TRAIL BLAZERS 14 28 4531 4901 -0.019 21.847   25 -0.360   25 -0.350   29 -0.551   25 0.4606   14  3.958   25 -0.533   28 -0.569
JAZZ          10 31 4569 4846 -0.032 20.778   29 -0.579   29 -0.578   26 -0.391   29 0.4387    8  3.987   21 -0.224   27 -0.558

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       28 14 4780 4529  0.073 21.381    4  0.402    4  0.397    5  0.379    4 0.5409   22  3.918   12  0.194    5  0.563
GRIZZLIES     28 15 5292 4941 -0.018 20.320    5  0.305    5  0.291    4  0.477    5 0.5327    1  4.070    1  1.082   20 -0.128
MAVERICKS     23 20 4952 4807  0.035 21.661   12  0.114   12  0.096   11  0.177   12 0.5097   13  3.965   11  0.228   11  0.127
SPURS         19 22 4577 4635 -0.014 20.563   21 -0.088   21 -0.082   19 -0.101   21 0.4893   18  3.942   18 -0.167   17 -0.035
PELICANS      12 32 4806 5158 -0.069 22.258   28 -0.558   28 -0.554   27 -0.464   28 0.4452   16  3.948   24 -0.497   24 -0.431

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     36  6 5124 4689 -0.030 19.185    1  0.781    1  0.805    3  0.564    2 0.5784    4  4.029    2  0.952    9  0.175
BUCKS         25 17 4771 4635 -0.042 19.953    9  0.169    9  0.154   10  0.193    9 0.5182   20  3.940   13  0.119    8  0.267
PACERS        24 19 4952 4926 -0.008 21.385   10  0.127   11  0.119   13  0.121   10 0.5130    6  4.001    7  0.358   19 -0.115
PISTONS       22 21 4823 4865 -0.025 21.323   17  0.009   17  0.008   15 -0.041   17 0.5011   17  3.947   14 -0.080   15 -0.002
BULLS         19 25 5153 5279 -0.049 21.748   22 -0.180   22 -0.175   22 -0.215   22 0.4806    2  4.054    8  0.305   29 -0.734

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         22 20 4916 4999 -0.016 21.153   15  0.053   15  0.052   16 -0.080   14 0.5059    5  4.023   10  0.272   25 -0.433
MAGIC         23 21 4584 4589 -0.004 22.067   16  0.051   16  0.049   18 -0.091   16 0.5049   30  3.816   30 -0.774    4  0.592
HEAT          21 20 4560 4510 -0.037 19.897   19 -0.006   19 -0.005   14  0.035   19 0.5001   23  3.908   19 -0.200    7  0.269
HORNETS       11 28 4177 4388 -0.028 19.791   26 -0.487   26 -0.484   24 -0.339   26 0.4488   27  3.896   28 -0.634   18 -0.045
WIZARDS        6 35 4452 5034  0.047 22.916   30 -0.754   30 -0.772   30 -0.804   30 0.4241    7  3.994   27 -0.601   30 -1.008

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       30 13 5060 4647 -0.001 20.412    3  0.411    3  0.400    2  0.579    3 0.5445   19  3.941    5  0.508    2  0.650
KNICKS        28 16 5150 4886 -0.069 20.160    7  0.237    7  0.225    7  0.272    7 0.5243   11  3.982    6  0.412   10  0.132
76ERS         15 26 4406 4575 -0.033 20.579   23 -0.307   23 -0.308   23 -0.260   23 0.4672   26  3.899   26 -0.542   13  0.022
NETS          14 29 4585 4903  0.028 22.910   24 -0.342   24 -0.334   28 -0.510   24 0.4640   25  3.903   29 -0.771   22 -0.248
RAPTORS       10 32 4661 4978  0.098 23.442   27 -0.506   27 -0.502   25 -0.391   27 0.4481   10  3.982   23 -0.249   26 -0.532

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 110 103 0.516    1  0.120
CENTRAL DIVISION   126  88 0.589    2  0.111
NORTHWEST DIVISION 107 104 0.507    3  0.080
PACIFIC DIVISION   110  98 0.529    4  0.009
ATLANTIC DIVISION   97 116 0.455    5 -0.054
SOUTHEAST DIVISION  83 124 0.401    6 -0.287

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.128 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Jan 21 05:30:16 2025
games through: Mon Jan 20 2025

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