Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       68 15  9962  8923  0.071 40.745    1  0.859    1  0.871    1  0.862    1 0.5782   16  3.966    2  0.880    1  0.844
CAVALIERS     64 18  9999  9217  0.017 38.940    2  0.706    2  0.709    2  0.567    2 0.5655    5  4.027    1  0.904   11  0.230
CELTICS       61 21  9534  8787  0.005 38.630    3  0.587    3  0.586    3  0.564    3 0.5555   24  3.923    8  0.365    3  0.762
ROCKETS       52 30  9372  9002  0.071 41.580    4  0.376    4  0.370    7  0.305    4 0.5357   23  3.930   14  0.142    6  0.468
CLIPPERS      50 32  9256  8874  0.051 40.983    5  0.303    5  0.295    4  0.450    5 0.5285   26  3.900   15  0.133    2  0.767
LAKERS        50 32  9298  9198  0.029 41.148    6  0.284    6  0.287   14  0.167    6 0.5276   19  3.948   17  0.094   10  0.239
KNICKS        51 31  9494  9158 -0.007 39.390    7  0.282    7  0.280   10  0.212    8 0.5273   17  3.955   13  0.172    9  0.252
NUGGETS       50 32  9902  9583  0.036 40.750    8  0.280    8  0.280    9  0.254    7 0.5276    4  4.042    4  0.672   18 -0.164
TIMBERWOLVES  49 33  9372  8962  0.051 40.897    9  0.267    9  0.259    5  0.424    9 0.5255   25  3.920   11  0.207    5  0.641
WARRIORS      49 34  9451  9176  0.047 41.788   10  0.257   10  0.253    6  0.309   10 0.5241   21  3.938   12  0.186    7  0.432
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACERS        50 32  9624  9441 -0.023 39.352   11  0.242   11  0.238   13  0.203   11 0.5236    7  4.004    6  0.417   15 -0.011
GRIZZLIES     48 35 10096  9703  0.038 41.073   12  0.218   13  0.207    8  0.258   13 0.5199    1  4.065    3  0.798   20 -0.282
BUCKS         49 34  9569  9350  0.002 40.466   13  0.216   12  0.210   12  0.209   12 0.5210   15  3.970   10  0.249   12  0.168
PISTONS       44 38  9471  9315  0.005 40.231   14  0.075   14  0.076   11  0.209   14 0.5085   13  3.975    9  0.276   13  0.143
KINGS         40 42  9490  9451  0.014 40.869   15 -0.011   15 -0.014   16  0.025   15 0.4977   10  3.983   16  0.131   16 -0.081
MAVERICKS     39 43  9364  9462  0.029 41.703   16 -0.019   16 -0.019   23 -0.217   17 0.4968    9  3.984   19 -0.105   22 -0.328
MAGIC         42 41  8765  8750 -0.048 39.657   17 -0.026   17 -0.025   17  0.010   16 0.4976   30  3.818   27 -0.702    4  0.722
HAWKS         40 43  9786  9904 -0.025 40.691   18 -0.057   18 -0.055   20 -0.073   18 0.4943    2  4.053    7  0.403   27 -0.550
BULLS         39 43  9660  9788 -0.032 40.042   19 -0.087   19 -0.084   18 -0.019   19 0.4924    3  4.051    5  0.447   26 -0.484
SUNS          36 46  9317  9563  0.014 41.675   20 -0.130   20 -0.125   22 -0.211   20 0.4871   11  3.979   20 -0.126   21 -0.296
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TRAIL BLAZERS 36 46  9093  9336  0.002 41.307   21 -0.145   21 -0.140   19 -0.056   21 0.4863   22  3.935   21 -0.196   14  0.085
HEAT          37 45  9069  9023 -0.029 39.598   22 -0.149   22 -0.149   15  0.034   22 0.4857   28  3.890   22 -0.331    8  0.399
SPURS         34 48  9342  9568  0.006 41.370   23 -0.196   23 -0.190   21 -0.207   23 0.4804    8  3.994   18 -0.042   23 -0.372
RAPTORS       30 52  9091  9443 -0.041 40.424   24 -0.356   24 -0.357   24 -0.299   24 0.4661   18  3.951   23 -0.359   19 -0.240
NETS          26 56  8619  9202 -0.043 41.022   25 -0.469   25 -0.460   26 -0.568   25 0.4554   29  3.873   29 -1.016   17 -0.120
76ERS         24 58  8988  9499 -0.051 40.541   26 -0.537   26 -0.539   25 -0.524   26 0.4484   20  3.947   26 -0.602   25 -0.446
PELICANS      21 61  9006  9779 -0.003 42.554   27 -0.597   27 -0.598   27 -0.630   27 0.4442   14  3.974   25 -0.571   28 -0.689
HORNETS       19 63  8618  9365 -0.070 40.643   28 -0.709   28 -0.713   29 -0.762   28 0.4334   27  3.893   30 -1.111   24 -0.413
JAZZ          17 65  9175  9941 -0.002 42.503   29 -0.722   29 -0.727   28 -0.658   29 0.4323    6  4.006   24 -0.431   29 -0.885
WIZARDS       18 64  8856  9876 -0.064 41.285   30 -0.738   30 -0.738   30 -0.859   30 0.4317   12  3.976   28 -0.791   30 -0.928
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      50 32  9256  8874  0.051 40.983    5  0.303    5  0.295    4  0.450    5 0.5285   26  3.900   15  0.133    2  0.767
LAKERS        50 32  9298  9198  0.029 41.148    6  0.284    6  0.287   14  0.167    6 0.5276   19  3.948   17  0.094   10  0.239
WARRIORS      49 34  9451  9176  0.047 41.788   10  0.257   10  0.253    6  0.309   10 0.5241   21  3.938   12  0.186    7  0.432
KINGS         40 42  9490  9451  0.014 40.869   15 -0.011   15 -0.014   16  0.025   15 0.4977   10  3.983   16  0.131   16 -0.081
SUNS          36 46  9317  9563  0.014 41.675   20 -0.130   20 -0.125   22 -0.211   20 0.4871   11  3.979   20 -0.126   21 -0.296

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       68 15  9962  8923  0.071 40.745    1  0.859    1  0.871    1  0.862    1 0.5782   16  3.966    2  0.880    1  0.844
NUGGETS       50 32  9902  9583  0.036 40.750    8  0.280    8  0.280    9  0.254    7 0.5276    4  4.042    4  0.672   18 -0.164
TIMBERWOLVES  49 33  9372  8962  0.051 40.897    9  0.267    9  0.259    5  0.424    9 0.5255   25  3.920   11  0.207    5  0.641
TRAIL BLAZERS 36 46  9093  9336  0.002 41.307   21 -0.145   21 -0.140   19 -0.056   21 0.4863   22  3.935   21 -0.196   14  0.085
JAZZ          17 65  9175  9941 -0.002 42.503   29 -0.722   29 -0.727   28 -0.658   29 0.4323    6  4.006   24 -0.431   29 -0.885

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       52 30  9372  9002  0.071 41.580    4  0.376    4  0.370    7  0.305    4 0.5357   23  3.930   14  0.142    6  0.468
GRIZZLIES     48 35 10096  9703  0.038 41.073   12  0.218   13  0.207    8  0.258   13 0.5199    1  4.065    3  0.798   20 -0.282
MAVERICKS     39 43  9364  9462  0.029 41.703   16 -0.019   16 -0.019   23 -0.217   17 0.4968    9  3.984   19 -0.105   22 -0.328
SPURS         34 48  9342  9568  0.006 41.370   23 -0.196   23 -0.190   21 -0.207   23 0.4804    8  3.994   18 -0.042   23 -0.372
PELICANS      21 61  9006  9779 -0.003 42.554   27 -0.597   27 -0.598   27 -0.630   27 0.4442   14  3.974   25 -0.571   28 -0.689

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     64 18  9999  9217  0.017 38.940    2  0.706    2  0.709    2  0.567    2 0.5655    5  4.027    1  0.904   11  0.230
PACERS        50 32  9624  9441 -0.023 39.352   11  0.242   11  0.238   13  0.203   11 0.5236    7  4.004    6  0.417   15 -0.011
BUCKS         49 34  9569  9350  0.002 40.466   13  0.216   12  0.210   12  0.209   12 0.5210   15  3.970   10  0.249   12  0.168
PISTONS       44 38  9471  9315  0.005 40.231   14  0.075   14  0.076   11  0.209   14 0.5085   13  3.975    9  0.276   13  0.143
BULLS         39 43  9660  9788 -0.032 40.042   19 -0.087   19 -0.084   18 -0.019   19 0.4924    3  4.051    5  0.447   26 -0.484

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         42 41  8765  8750 -0.048 39.657   17 -0.026   17 -0.025   17  0.010   16 0.4976   30  3.818   27 -0.702    4  0.722
HAWKS         40 43  9786  9904 -0.025 40.691   18 -0.057   18 -0.055   20 -0.073   18 0.4943    2  4.053    7  0.403   27 -0.550
HEAT          37 45  9069  9023 -0.029 39.598   22 -0.149   22 -0.149   15  0.034   22 0.4857   28  3.890   22 -0.331    8  0.399
HORNETS       19 63  8618  9365 -0.070 40.643   28 -0.709   28 -0.713   29 -0.762   28 0.4334   27  3.893   30 -1.111   24 -0.413
WIZARDS       18 64  8856  9876 -0.064 41.285   30 -0.738   30 -0.738   30 -0.859   30 0.4317   12  3.976   28 -0.791   30 -0.928

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       61 21  9534  8787  0.005 38.630    3  0.587    3  0.586    3  0.564    3 0.5555   24  3.923    8  0.365    3  0.762
KNICKS        51 31  9494  9158 -0.007 39.390    7  0.282    7  0.280   10  0.212    8 0.5273   17  3.955   13  0.172    9  0.252
RAPTORS       30 52  9091  9443 -0.041 40.424   24 -0.356   24 -0.357   24 -0.299   24 0.4661   18  3.951   23 -0.359   19 -0.240
NETS          26 56  8619  9202 -0.043 41.022   25 -0.469   25 -0.460   26 -0.568   25 0.4554   29  3.873   29 -1.016   17 -0.120
76ERS         24 58  8988  9499 -0.051 40.541   26 -0.537   26 -0.539   25 -0.524   26 0.4484   20  3.947   26 -0.602   25 -0.446

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   246 165 0.599    1  0.198
NORTHWEST DIVISION 220 191 0.535    2  0.165
PACIFIC DIVISION   225 186 0.547    3  0.124
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 194 217 0.472    4 -0.029
ATLANTIC DIVISION  192 218 0.468    5 -0.099
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 156 256 0.379    6 -0.362

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.142 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Apr 16 05:30:13 2025
games through: Tue Apr 15 2025

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