Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHOENIX       71 26 10734 10087  0.097 51.028    1  0.635    1  0.615    1  0.449    1 0.5610    1  4.012    1  1.497   28 -0.599
SAN ANTONIO   75 30 10117  9377  0.109 55.573    2  0.616    2  0.590    2  0.447    2 0.5599   26  3.704   15 -0.005    2  0.898
MIAMI         70 27  9797  9198 -0.010 47.381    3  0.533    3  0.503    4  0.358    3 0.5507   15  3.814    4  0.416    8  0.301
DALLAS        64 31  9772  9322  0.089 50.118    4  0.497    4  0.461    5  0.358    4 0.5474    5  3.872    2  0.699   13  0.017
DETROIT       69 38  9911  9476  0.054 55.167    5  0.393    5  0.368    3  0.431    5 0.5388   30  3.661   21 -0.210    1  1.073
SEATTLE       58 35  9197  9028  0.069 49.104    6  0.356    6  0.338   10  0.099    6 0.5349   13  3.827    8  0.218   15 -0.020
HOUSTON       54 35  8479  8167  0.066 46.507    7  0.302    7  0.276    6  0.350    7 0.5299   25  3.716   16 -0.046    3  0.746
SACRAMENTO    51 36  9016  8861  0.042 45.185    8  0.252    8  0.224    8  0.102    8 0.5242    2  3.910    3  0.631   23 -0.427
DENVER        50 37  8612  8497  0.049 45.465    9  0.240    9  0.211    7  0.180    9 0.5210   12  3.837    5  0.351   14  0.009
MEMPHIS       45 41  8072  7928  0.051 44.846   10  0.110   12  0.088    9  0.102   11 0.5088   24  3.717   23 -0.292    5  0.496
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MINNESOTA     44 38  7934  7815  0.013 41.777   11  0.107   11  0.088   11  0.092   12 0.5087   18  3.784   14  0.009    9  0.175
CHICAGO       49 39  8360  8284 -0.045 43.125   12  0.105   10  0.089   13  0.048   10 0.5094   23  3.747   20 -0.209    7  0.304
INDIANA       50 45  8718  8694 -0.003 48.145   13  0.069   13  0.056   12  0.052   13 0.5064   29  3.683   27 -0.495    4  0.599
WASHINGTON    49 43  9245  9297 -0.025 46.096   14  0.067   14  0.055   20 -0.087   14 0.5059    4  3.886    6  0.321   25 -0.495
BOSTON        48 41  8918  8851 -0.051 43.421   15  0.061   15  0.044   15 -0.035   15 0.5043    8  3.861    7  0.251   21 -0.322
PHILADELPHIA  44 43  8582  8683 -0.025 43.798   16  0.013   16 -0.006   19 -0.080   16 0.4993    9  3.850   12  0.152   20 -0.312
CLEVELAND     42 40  7914  7849 -0.054 39.887   17  0.000   17 -0.024   17 -0.055   17 0.4968   19  3.780   19 -0.155   12  0.045
NEW JERSEY    42 44  7883  8057 -0.035 43.147   18 -0.034   18 -0.054   16 -0.053   18 0.4947   27  3.694   28 -0.549    6  0.443
L.A. CLIPPERS 37 45  7849  7912 -0.001 41.867   19 -0.091   19 -0.112   18 -0.069   19 0.4874   22  3.763   22 -0.249   11  0.112
L.A. LAKERS   34 48  8095  8338  0.011 42.733   20 -0.163   20 -0.175   23 -0.218   20 0.4812    7  3.866   13  0.090   27 -0.526
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ORLANDO       36 46  8160  8344 -0.056 40.566   21 -0.171   21 -0.183   24 -0.235   21 0.4807    3  3.889   10  0.185   30 -0.656
GOLDEN STATE  34 48  8094  8271 -0.003 42.171   22 -0.173   22 -0.185   14 -0.012   22 0.4796   10  3.849    9  0.216   18 -0.241
TORONTO       33 49  8178  8311 -0.044 40.782   23 -0.237   23 -0.258   21 -0.160   23 0.4730    6  3.872   11  0.177   26 -0.497
NEW YORK      33 49  7977  8177 -0.061 40.482   24 -0.253   24 -0.272   22 -0.187   24 0.4715   14  3.825   18 -0.075   19 -0.300
MILWAUKEE     30 52  7973  8218 -0.046 41.029   25 -0.321   25 -0.343   25 -0.247   25 0.4642   11  3.843   17 -0.052   24 -0.443
PORTLAND      27 55  7621  7949 -0.005 42.504   26 -0.365   26 -0.385   26 -0.274   26 0.4594   20  3.765   25 -0.448   16 -0.100
UTAH          26 56  7625  7975 -0.010 42.465   27 -0.397   27 -0.415   27 -0.304   27 0.4562   21  3.764   26 -0.481   17 -0.126
NEW ORLEANS   18 64  7252  7832 -0.010 43.101   28 -0.634   28 -0.658   29 -0.409   28 0.4337   28  3.684   30 -0.950   10  0.131
CHARLOTTE     18 64  7729  8220 -0.076 40.802   29 -0.681   29 -0.710   28 -0.378   29 0.4275   17  3.800   24 -0.384   22 -0.371
ATLANTA       13 69  7605  8401 -0.075 41.432   30 -0.836   30 -0.868   30 -0.633   30 0.4139   16  3.802   29 -0.629   29 -0.637

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHOENIX       71 26 10734 10087  0.097 51.028    1  0.635    1  0.615    1  0.449    1 0.5610    1  4.012    1  1.497   28 -0.599
SACRAMENTO    51 36  9016  8861  0.042 45.185    8  0.252    8  0.224    8  0.102    8 0.5242    2  3.910    3  0.631   23 -0.427
L.A. CLIPPERS 37 45  7849  7912 -0.001 41.867   19 -0.091   19 -0.112   18 -0.069   19 0.4874   22  3.763   22 -0.249   11  0.112
L.A. LAKERS   34 48  8095  8338  0.011 42.733   20 -0.163   20 -0.175   23 -0.218   20 0.4812    7  3.866   13  0.090   27 -0.526
GOLDEN STATE  34 48  8094  8271 -0.003 42.171   22 -0.173   22 -0.185   14 -0.012   22 0.4796   10  3.849    9  0.216   18 -0.241

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE       58 35  9197  9028  0.069 49.104    6  0.356    6  0.338   10  0.099    6 0.5349   13  3.827    8  0.218   15 -0.020
DENVER        50 37  8612  8497  0.049 45.465    9  0.240    9  0.211    7  0.180    9 0.5210   12  3.837    5  0.351   14  0.009
MINNESOTA     44 38  7934  7815  0.013 41.777   11  0.107   11  0.088   11  0.092   12 0.5087   18  3.784   14  0.009    9  0.175
PORTLAND      27 55  7621  7949 -0.005 42.504   26 -0.365   26 -0.385   26 -0.274   26 0.4594   20  3.765   25 -0.448   16 -0.100
UTAH          26 56  7625  7975 -0.010 42.465   27 -0.397   27 -0.415   27 -0.304   27 0.4562   21  3.764   26 -0.481   17 -0.126

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN ANTONIO   75 30 10117  9377  0.109 55.573    2  0.616    2  0.590    2  0.447    2 0.5599   26  3.704   15 -0.005    2  0.898
DALLAS        64 31  9772  9322  0.089 50.118    4  0.497    4  0.461    5  0.358    4 0.5474    5  3.872    2  0.699   13  0.017
HOUSTON       54 35  8479  8167  0.066 46.507    7  0.302    7  0.276    6  0.350    7 0.5299   25  3.716   16 -0.046    3  0.746
MEMPHIS       45 41  8072  7928  0.051 44.846   10  0.110   12  0.088    9  0.102   11 0.5088   24  3.717   23 -0.292    5  0.496
NEW ORLEANS   18 64  7252  7832 -0.010 43.101   28 -0.634   28 -0.658   29 -0.409   28 0.4337   28  3.684   30 -0.950   10  0.131

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT       69 38  9911  9476  0.054 55.167    5  0.393    5  0.368    3  0.431    5 0.5388   30  3.661   21 -0.210    1  1.073
CHICAGO       49 39  8360  8284 -0.045 43.125   12  0.105   10  0.089   13  0.048   10 0.5094   23  3.747   20 -0.209    7  0.304
INDIANA       50 45  8718  8694 -0.003 48.145   13  0.069   13  0.056   12  0.052   13 0.5064   29  3.683   27 -0.495    4  0.599
CLEVELAND     42 40  7914  7849 -0.054 39.887   17  0.000   17 -0.024   17 -0.055   17 0.4968   19  3.780   19 -0.155   12  0.045
MILWAUKEE     30 52  7973  8218 -0.046 41.029   25 -0.321   25 -0.343   25 -0.247   25 0.4642   11  3.843   17 -0.052   24 -0.443

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MIAMI         70 27  9797  9198 -0.010 47.381    3  0.533    3  0.503    4  0.358    3 0.5507   15  3.814    4  0.416    8  0.301
WASHINGTON    49 43  9245  9297 -0.025 46.096   14  0.067   14  0.055   20 -0.087   14 0.5059    4  3.886    6  0.321   25 -0.495
ORLANDO       36 46  8160  8344 -0.056 40.566   21 -0.171   21 -0.183   24 -0.235   21 0.4807    3  3.889   10  0.185   30 -0.656
CHARLOTTE     18 64  7729  8220 -0.076 40.802   29 -0.681   29 -0.710   28 -0.378   29 0.4275   17  3.800   24 -0.384   22 -0.371
ATLANTA       13 69  7605  8401 -0.075 41.432   30 -0.836   30 -0.868   30 -0.633   30 0.4139   16  3.802   29 -0.629   29 -0.637

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON        48 41  8918  8851 -0.051 43.421   15  0.061   15  0.044   15 -0.035   15 0.5043    8  3.861    7  0.251   21 -0.322
PHILADELPHIA  44 43  8582  8683 -0.025 43.798   16  0.013   16 -0.006   19 -0.080   16 0.4993    9  3.850   12  0.152   20 -0.312
NEW JERSEY    42 44  7883  8057 -0.035 43.147   18 -0.034   18 -0.054   16 -0.053   18 0.4947   27  3.694   28 -0.549    6  0.443
TORONTO       33 49  8178  8311 -0.044 40.782   23 -0.237   23 -0.258   21 -0.160   23 0.4730    6  3.872   11  0.177   26 -0.497
NEW YORK      33 49  7977  8177 -0.061 40.482   24 -0.253   24 -0.272   22 -0.187   24 0.4715   14  3.825   18 -0.075   19 -0.300

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 256 201 0.560    1  0.225
PACIFIC DIVISION   227 203 0.528    2  0.060
CENTRAL DIVISION   240 214 0.529    3  0.033
NORTHWEST DIVISION 205 221 0.481    4 -0.035
ATLANTIC DIVISION  200 226 0.469    5 -0.148
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 186 249 0.428    6 -0.242

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.271 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.026 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:01:36 2024
games through: Thu Jun 23 2005

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