Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLEVELAND     76 20  9589  8738  0.062 48.598    1  0.816    1  0.775    1  0.607    1 0.5713   25  3.752   11  0.254    1  0.961
L.A. LAKERS   81 24 11123 10329  0.079 54.166    2  0.778    2  0.734    2  0.605    2 0.5701    7  3.879    2  0.854    9  0.356
BOSTON        69 27  9705  9089  0.059 49.159    3  0.597    3  0.570    5  0.338    3 0.5546   22  3.774   12  0.085    6  0.591
ORLANDO       72 34 10613 10020  0.124 56.772    4  0.554    4  0.526    3  0.457    4 0.5514   18  3.793    7  0.293    5  0.621
DENVER        64 34 10282  9864  0.034 49.824    5  0.423    5  0.394    4  0.348    5 0.5402    6  3.898    4  0.692   14  0.004
HOUSTON       60 35  9259  8950  0.065 49.554    6  0.386    6  0.362    7  0.281    6 0.5368   26  3.749   15 -0.087    4  0.648
PORTLAND      56 32  8666  8270  0.016 44.054    7  0.349    7  0.320    6  0.325    7 0.5325   24  3.758   13 -0.001    3  0.650
SAN ANTONIO   55 32  8410  8132 -0.023 42.787    8  0.308    8  0.283    8  0.159    8 0.5290   28  3.721   23 -0.338    2  0.656
DALLAS        55 37  9359  9206  0.010 46.696    9  0.264    9  0.241    9  0.128    9 0.5246   10  3.854   10  0.256   15  0.001
NEW ORLEANS   50 37  8278  8272 -0.005 44.195   10  0.197   10  0.173   21 -0.149   10 0.5183   27  3.737   26 -0.570   11  0.272
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UTAH          49 38  8979  8808  0.013 44.072   11  0.176   11  0.147   10  0.101   11 0.5156    9  3.864    8  0.279   17 -0.078
ATLANTA       51 42  8970  8919  0.023 47.980   12  0.157   12  0.130   14  0.001   12 0.5128   20  3.779   20 -0.229   12  0.230
PHOENIX       46 36  8974  8816 -0.033 40.361   13  0.130   13  0.104   11  0.068   13 0.5108    2  4.002    1  0.939   27 -0.804
MIAMI         46 43  8678  8651  0.003 45.426   14  0.063   14  0.039   12  0.042   14 0.5041   21  3.778   19 -0.189   10  0.274
CHICAGO       44 45  9136  9189  0.025 46.322   15  0.031   15  0.006   13  0.030   15 0.5006    8  3.877    9  0.270   20 -0.209
PHILADELPHIA  43 45  8518  8558  0.015 45.488   16  0.020   16 -0.006   15 -0.042   16 0.4980   19  3.785   21 -0.245   13  0.161
DETROIT       39 47  8039  8141  0.009 44.460   17 -0.066   17 -0.093   18 -0.088   17 0.4893   29  3.708   28 -0.641    8  0.465
INDIANA       35 46  8505  8603 -0.006 41.395   18 -0.144   18 -0.167   16 -0.059   18 0.4830    4  3.952    5  0.559   26 -0.676
CHARLOTTE     35 47  7677  7781 -0.033 41.163   19 -0.176   19 -0.199   17 -0.083   19 0.4789   30  3.705   29 -0.651    7  0.485
MILWAUKEE     34 48  8142  8231 -0.018 41.557   20 -0.194   20 -0.221   19 -0.118   20 0.4773   13  3.838   14 -0.065   19 -0.171
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW JERSEY    34 48  8044  8244 -0.037 41.318   21 -0.207   21 -0.231   20 -0.148   21 0.4762   16  3.823   18 -0.169   18 -0.127
TORONTO       33 49  8121  8352 -0.028 41.634   22 -0.223   22 -0.248   23 -0.199   22 0.4743   12  3.846   16 -0.110   21 -0.289
NEW YORK      32 50  8627  8841 -0.026 41.684   23 -0.252   23 -0.281   22 -0.171   23 0.4714    3  3.971    6  0.540   28 -0.882
GOLDEN STATE  29 53  8905  9202 -0.061 40.957   24 -0.375   24 -0.399   24 -0.259   24 0.4613    1  4.025    3  0.737   30 -1.255
MINNESOTA     24 57  7914  8310 -0.047 41.238   25 -0.489   25 -0.519   26 -0.347   25 0.4498   14  3.834   22 -0.314   22 -0.380
MEMPHIS       24 58  7698  8146 -0.052 41.728   26 -0.509   26 -0.538   25 -0.312   26 0.4487   23  3.763   27 -0.616   16 -0.009
OKLAHOMA CITY 23 59  7952  8452 -0.070 41.232   27 -0.552   27 -0.583   27 -0.377   27 0.4438   15  3.831   24 -0.359   23 -0.395
WASHINGTON    19 63  7877  8489 -0.048 42.188   28 -0.650   28 -0.679   28 -0.480   28 0.4338   11  3.847   25 -0.386   25 -0.573
L.A. CLIPPERS 19 63  7799  8518 -0.073 41.910   29 -0.667   29 -0.694   30 -0.615   29 0.4336   17  3.808   30 -0.707   24 -0.524
SACRAMENTO    17 65  8248  8966 -0.086 41.502   30 -0.744   30 -0.783   29 -0.577   30 0.4265    5  3.914   17 -0.154   29 -1.001
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
L.A. LAKERS   81 24 11123 10329  0.079 54.166    2  0.778    2  0.734    2  0.605    2 0.5701    7  3.879    2  0.854    9  0.356
PHOENIX       46 36  8974  8816 -0.033 40.361   13  0.130   13  0.104   11  0.068   13 0.5108    2  4.002    1  0.939   27 -0.804
GOLDEN STATE  29 53  8905  9202 -0.061 40.957   24 -0.375   24 -0.399   24 -0.259   24 0.4613    1  4.025    3  0.737   30 -1.255
L.A. CLIPPERS 19 63  7799  8518 -0.073 41.910   29 -0.667   29 -0.694   30 -0.615   29 0.4336   17  3.808   30 -0.707   24 -0.524
SACRAMENTO    17 65  8248  8966 -0.086 41.502   30 -0.744   30 -0.783   29 -0.577   30 0.4265    5  3.914   17 -0.154   29 -1.001

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DENVER        64 34 10282  9864  0.034 49.824    5  0.423    5  0.394    4  0.348    5 0.5402    6  3.898    4  0.692   14  0.004
PORTLAND      56 32  8666  8270  0.016 44.054    7  0.349    7  0.320    6  0.325    7 0.5325   24  3.758   13 -0.001    3  0.650
UTAH          49 38  8979  8808  0.013 44.072   11  0.176   11  0.147   10  0.101   11 0.5156    9  3.864    8  0.279   17 -0.078
MINNESOTA     24 57  7914  8310 -0.047 41.238   25 -0.489   25 -0.519   26 -0.347   25 0.4498   14  3.834   22 -0.314   22 -0.380
OKLAHOMA CITY 23 59  7952  8452 -0.070 41.232   27 -0.552   27 -0.583   27 -0.377   27 0.4438   15  3.831   24 -0.359   23 -0.395

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HOUSTON       60 35  9259  8950  0.065 49.554    6  0.386    6  0.362    7  0.281    6 0.5368   26  3.749   15 -0.087    4  0.648
SAN ANTONIO   55 32  8410  8132 -0.023 42.787    8  0.308    8  0.283    8  0.159    8 0.5290   28  3.721   23 -0.338    2  0.656
DALLAS        55 37  9359  9206  0.010 46.696    9  0.264    9  0.241    9  0.128    9 0.5246   10  3.854   10  0.256   15  0.001
NEW ORLEANS   50 37  8278  8272 -0.005 44.195   10  0.197   10  0.173   21 -0.149   10 0.5183   27  3.737   26 -0.570   11  0.272
MEMPHIS       24 58  7698  8146 -0.052 41.728   26 -0.509   26 -0.538   25 -0.312   26 0.4487   23  3.763   27 -0.616   16 -0.009

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLEVELAND     76 20  9589  8738  0.062 48.598    1  0.816    1  0.775    1  0.607    1 0.5713   25  3.752   11  0.254    1  0.961
CHICAGO       44 45  9136  9189  0.025 46.322   15  0.031   15  0.006   13  0.030   15 0.5006    8  3.877    9  0.270   20 -0.209
DETROIT       39 47  8039  8141  0.009 44.460   17 -0.066   17 -0.093   18 -0.088   17 0.4893   29  3.708   28 -0.641    8  0.465
INDIANA       35 46  8505  8603 -0.006 41.395   18 -0.144   18 -0.167   16 -0.059   18 0.4830    4  3.952    5  0.559   26 -0.676
MILWAUKEE     34 48  8142  8231 -0.018 41.557   20 -0.194   20 -0.221   19 -0.118   20 0.4773   13  3.838   14 -0.065   19 -0.171

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ORLANDO       72 34 10613 10020  0.124 56.772    4  0.554    4  0.526    3  0.457    4 0.5514   18  3.793    7  0.293    5  0.621
ATLANTA       51 42  8970  8919  0.023 47.980   12  0.157   12  0.130   14  0.001   12 0.5128   20  3.779   20 -0.229   12  0.230
MIAMI         46 43  8678  8651  0.003 45.426   14  0.063   14  0.039   12  0.042   14 0.5041   21  3.778   19 -0.189   10  0.274
CHARLOTTE     35 47  7677  7781 -0.033 41.163   19 -0.176   19 -0.199   17 -0.083   19 0.4789   30  3.705   29 -0.651    7  0.485
WASHINGTON    19 63  7877  8489 -0.048 42.188   28 -0.650   28 -0.679   28 -0.480   28 0.4338   11  3.847   25 -0.386   25 -0.573

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON        69 27  9705  9089  0.059 49.159    3  0.597    3  0.570    5  0.338    3 0.5546   22  3.774   12  0.085    6  0.591
PHILADELPHIA  43 45  8518  8558  0.015 45.488   16  0.020   16 -0.006   15 -0.042   16 0.4980   19  3.785   21 -0.245   13  0.161
NEW JERSEY    34 48  8044  8244 -0.037 41.318   21 -0.207   21 -0.231   20 -0.148   21 0.4762   16  3.823   18 -0.169   18 -0.127
TORONTO       33 49  8121  8352 -0.028 41.634   22 -0.223   22 -0.248   23 -0.199   22 0.4743   12  3.846   16 -0.110   21 -0.289
NEW YORK      32 50  8627  8841 -0.026 41.684   23 -0.252   23 -0.281   22 -0.171   23 0.4714    3  3.971    6  0.540   28 -0.882

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   228 206 0.525    1  0.084
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 244 199 0.551    2  0.039
NORTHWEST DIVISION 216 220 0.495    3 -0.012
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 223 229 0.493    4 -0.024
ATLANTIC DIVISION  211 219 0.491    5 -0.035
PACIFIC DIVISION   192 241 0.443    6 -0.224

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.274 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.028 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:03:28 2024
games through: Sun Jun 14 2009

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