Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DALLAS        73 30 10283  9815  0.101 54.339    1  0.601    1  0.584    1  0.462    1 0.5587   17  3.800    8  0.360    4  0.565
SAN ANTONIO   63 25  9068  8619  0.052 44.738    2  0.581    2  0.560    8  0.267    2 0.5545   13  3.846    6  0.385   13  0.149
MIAMI         72 31 10317  9649  0.064 52.115    3  0.543    4  0.519    2  0.456    3 0.5503   19  3.796    9  0.336    3  0.577
CHICAGO       71 27  9567  8899 -0.006 47.085    4  0.542    3  0.520    3  0.451    4 0.5500   27  3.728   15  0.012    1  0.889
LA LAKERS     61 31  9253  8765  0.043 46.377    5  0.429    5  0.402    6  0.310    5 0.5422   18  3.799   10  0.200    9  0.419
BOSTON        61 30  8765  8313  0.017 44.889    6  0.423    7  0.398    9  0.260    7 0.5388   29  3.713   21 -0.248    2  0.768
OKLAHOMA CITY 64 35 10338  9995  0.066 51.262    7  0.422    6  0.398    4  0.327    6 0.5400    9  3.862    4  0.523   14  0.132
DENVER        51 36  9298  8932  0.044 44.157    8  0.257    8  0.227    5  0.310    8 0.5235    2  3.936    1  0.870   19 -0.249
ORLANDO       54 34  8667  8208 -0.022 42.132    9  0.255    9  0.224    7  0.285    9 0.5230   23  3.767   14  0.024    6  0.545
PORTLAND      50 38  8425  8331  0.049 45.557   10  0.225   10  0.196   12  0.120   10 0.5218   26  3.737   23 -0.277    7  0.518
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MEMPHIS       53 42  9477  9294  0.071 49.688   11  0.221   11  0.188   10  0.222   11 0.5210   21  3.792   11  0.080   10  0.365
NEW ORLEANS   48 40  8320  8290  0.050 45.772   12  0.172   12  0.148   15 -0.021   12 0.5157   28  3.719   27 -0.501    8  0.460
ATLANTA       50 44  8825  8945  0.007 47.955   13  0.102   13  0.090   19 -0.136   13 0.5073   24  3.752   26 -0.467   12  0.194
HOUSTON       43 39  8685  8506  0.017 41.229   14  0.077   14  0.058   11  0.180   14 0.5063    4  3.922    3  0.673   22 -0.313
PHOENIX       40 42  8611  8684  0.012 41.835   15  0.004   15 -0.017   16 -0.052   15 0.4988    3  3.923    5  0.446   24 -0.550
UTAH          39 43  8153  8303  0.001 41.767   16 -0.024   16 -0.045   22 -0.184   16 0.4950   14  3.835   19 -0.120   20 -0.249
NEW YORK      42 44  9097  9067 -0.020 42.592   17 -0.026   17 -0.050   14 -0.014   17 0.4941    1  3.969    2  0.714   28 -0.743
PHILADELPHIA  42 45  8552  8466 -0.014 43.050   18 -0.038   18 -0.065   13  0.052   18 0.4929   20  3.792   17 -0.089   11  0.194
GOLDEN STATE  36 46  8477  8668 -0.009 41.567   19 -0.132   19 -0.147   18 -0.097   19 0.4855    6  3.920    7  0.385   25 -0.580
INDIANA       38 49  8634  8759 -0.025 43.497   20 -0.149   20 -0.164   20 -0.139   20 0.4828   10  3.856   13  0.028   21 -0.306
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MILWAUKEE     35 47  7534  7603 -0.044 40.252   21 -0.185   21 -0.203   17 -0.089   21 0.4778   30  3.681   30 -0.737    5  0.558
CHARLOTTE     34 48  7650  7978 -0.064 40.546   22 -0.225   22 -0.239   25 -0.316   22 0.4749   25  3.751   28 -0.646   15  0.015
LA CLIPPERS   32 50  8089  8346 -0.006 41.865   23 -0.233   23 -0.252   21 -0.178   23 0.4740   15  3.830   20 -0.139   16 -0.217
DETROIT       30 52  7951  8246 -0.068 40.250   24 -0.351   24 -0.372   23 -0.247   24 0.4627   16  3.818   22 -0.268   18 -0.227
SACRAMENTO    24 58  8151  8589 -0.014 42.088   25 -0.464   25 -0.482   24 -0.274   25 0.4510    8  3.869   16 -0.047   23 -0.501
NEW JERSEY    24 58  7722  8234 -0.077 40.587   26 -0.526   26 -0.549   27 -0.460   26 0.4452   22  3.772   29 -0.696   17 -0.224
WASHINGTON    23 59  7977  8584 -0.075 40.948   27 -0.557   27 -0.580   29 -0.502   27 0.4432   11  3.855   24 -0.343   26 -0.661
TORONTO       22 60  8124  8639 -0.075 40.691   28 -0.566   28 -0.594   28 -0.464   28 0.4395    7  3.896   18 -0.105   29 -0.824
CLEVELAND     19 63  7827  8566 -0.082 40.958   29 -0.678   29 -0.698   30 -0.554   30 0.4306   12  3.850   25 -0.416   27 -0.692
MINNESOTA     17 65  8288  8832 -0.015 42.388   30 -0.702   30 -0.733   26 -0.426   29 0.4311    5  3.922   12  0.066   30 -0.917
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LA LAKERS     61 31  9253  8765  0.043 46.377    5  0.429    5  0.402    6  0.310    5 0.5422   18  3.799   10  0.200    9  0.419
PHOENIX       40 42  8611  8684  0.012 41.835   15  0.004   15 -0.017   16 -0.052   15 0.4988    3  3.923    5  0.446   24 -0.550
GOLDEN STATE  36 46  8477  8668 -0.009 41.567   19 -0.132   19 -0.147   18 -0.097   19 0.4855    6  3.920    7  0.385   25 -0.580
LA CLIPPERS   32 50  8089  8346 -0.006 41.865   23 -0.233   23 -0.252   21 -0.178   23 0.4740   15  3.830   20 -0.139   16 -0.217
SACRAMENTO    24 58  8151  8589 -0.014 42.088   25 -0.464   25 -0.482   24 -0.274   25 0.4510    8  3.869   16 -0.047   23 -0.501

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OKLAHOMA CITY 64 35 10338  9995  0.066 51.262    7  0.422    6  0.398    4  0.327    6 0.5400    9  3.862    4  0.523   14  0.132
DENVER        51 36  9298  8932  0.044 44.157    8  0.257    8  0.227    5  0.310    8 0.5235    2  3.936    1  0.870   19 -0.249
PORTLAND      50 38  8425  8331  0.049 45.557   10  0.225   10  0.196   12  0.120   10 0.5218   26  3.737   23 -0.277    7  0.518
UTAH          39 43  8153  8303  0.001 41.767   16 -0.024   16 -0.045   22 -0.184   16 0.4950   14  3.835   19 -0.120   20 -0.249
MINNESOTA     17 65  8288  8832 -0.015 42.388   30 -0.702   30 -0.733   26 -0.426   29 0.4311    5  3.922   12  0.066   30 -0.917

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DALLAS        73 30 10283  9815  0.101 54.339    1  0.601    1  0.584    1  0.462    1 0.5587   17  3.800    8  0.360    4  0.565
SAN ANTONIO   63 25  9068  8619  0.052 44.738    2  0.581    2  0.560    8  0.267    2 0.5545   13  3.846    6  0.385   13  0.149
MEMPHIS       53 42  9477  9294  0.071 49.688   11  0.221   11  0.188   10  0.222   11 0.5210   21  3.792   11  0.080   10  0.365
NEW ORLEANS   48 40  8320  8290  0.050 45.772   12  0.172   12  0.148   15 -0.021   12 0.5157   28  3.719   27 -0.501    8  0.460
HOUSTON       43 39  8685  8506  0.017 41.229   14  0.077   14  0.058   11  0.180   14 0.5063    4  3.922    3  0.673   22 -0.313

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO       71 27  9567  8899 -0.006 47.085    4  0.542    3  0.520    3  0.451    4 0.5500   27  3.728   15  0.012    1  0.889
INDIANA       38 49  8634  8759 -0.025 43.497   20 -0.149   20 -0.164   20 -0.139   20 0.4828   10  3.856   13  0.028   21 -0.306
MILWAUKEE     35 47  7534  7603 -0.044 40.252   21 -0.185   21 -0.203   17 -0.089   21 0.4778   30  3.681   30 -0.737    5  0.558
DETROIT       30 52  7951  8246 -0.068 40.250   24 -0.351   24 -0.372   23 -0.247   24 0.4627   16  3.818   22 -0.268   18 -0.227
CLEVELAND     19 63  7827  8566 -0.082 40.958   29 -0.678   29 -0.698   30 -0.554   30 0.4306   12  3.850   25 -0.416   27 -0.692

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MIAMI         72 31 10317  9649  0.064 52.115    3  0.543    4  0.519    2  0.456    3 0.5503   19  3.796    9  0.336    3  0.577
ORLANDO       54 34  8667  8208 -0.022 42.132    9  0.255    9  0.224    7  0.285    9 0.5230   23  3.767   14  0.024    6  0.545
ATLANTA       50 44  8825  8945  0.007 47.955   13  0.102   13  0.090   19 -0.136   13 0.5073   24  3.752   26 -0.467   12  0.194
CHARLOTTE     34 48  7650  7978 -0.064 40.546   22 -0.225   22 -0.239   25 -0.316   22 0.4749   25  3.751   28 -0.646   15  0.015
WASHINGTON    23 59  7977  8584 -0.075 40.948   27 -0.557   27 -0.580   29 -0.502   27 0.4432   11  3.855   24 -0.343   26 -0.661

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON        61 30  8765  8313  0.017 44.889    6  0.423    7  0.398    9  0.260    7 0.5388   29  3.713   21 -0.248    2  0.768
NEW YORK      42 44  9097  9067 -0.020 42.592   17 -0.026   17 -0.050   14 -0.014   17 0.4941    1  3.969    2  0.714   28 -0.743
PHILADELPHIA  42 45  8552  8466 -0.014 43.050   18 -0.038   18 -0.065   13  0.052   18 0.4929   20  3.792   17 -0.089   11  0.194
NEW JERSEY    24 58  7722  8234 -0.077 40.587   26 -0.526   26 -0.549   27 -0.460   26 0.4452   22  3.772   29 -0.696   17 -0.224
TORONTO       22 60  8124  8639 -0.075 40.691   28 -0.566   28 -0.594   28 -0.464   28 0.4395    7  3.896   18 -0.105   29 -0.824

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 280 176 0.614    1  0.270
NORTHWEST DIVISION 221 217 0.505    2  0.034
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 233 216 0.519    3 -0.036
PACIFIC DIVISION   193 227 0.460    4 -0.094
ATLANTIC DIVISION  191 237 0.446    5 -0.129
CENTRAL DIVISION   193 238 0.448    6 -0.174

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.267 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.027 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:04:04 2024
games through: Sun Jun 12 2011

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