Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      88 18 12006 11019  0.107 55.424    1  0.988    1  0.947    3  0.609    1 0.5841    1  3.962    1  1.138   11  0.080
SPURS         73 19  9510  8547  0.073 46.374    2  0.845    2  0.801    1  0.666    2 0.5714   29  3.773    7  0.273    1  1.059
CAVALIERS     73 30 10755 10082  0.076 53.428    3  0.598    3  0.565    4  0.605    3 0.5553   21  3.831    3  0.484    3  0.727
THUNDER       66 34 10953 10261  0.138 53.364    4  0.524    4  0.482    2  0.616    4 0.5465    3  3.924    2  0.954    8  0.278
RAPTORS       66 36 10290 10006  0.026 52.396    5  0.397    5  0.370   10  0.129    5 0.5368   25  3.810   15 -0.090    7  0.349
CLIPPERS      55 33  9159  8802  0.005 44.017    6  0.313    6  0.288    5  0.271    6 0.5281   19  3.838   10  0.185    6  0.358
HEAT          55 41  9560  9381  0.008 48.957    7  0.202    7  0.170    7  0.173    7 0.5188   28  3.785   20 -0.165    4  0.512
HAWKS         52 40  9434  9148  0.029 47.255    8  0.201    8  0.165    6  0.254    8 0.5171   23  3.829   11  0.127    5  0.382
HORNETS       51 38  9111  8950 -0.017 44.566    9  0.181    9  0.155   13  0.073    9 0.5154   17  3.843   12  0.014   10  0.132
CELTICS       50 38  9232  9009 -0.012 44.019   10  0.171   10  0.142   12  0.077   10 0.5134    9  3.888    9  0.235   17 -0.081
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 44  9777  9737  0.054 49.207   11  0.125   11  0.102    8  0.141   11 0.5114    8  3.896    4  0.340   16 -0.058
PACERS        48 41  9033  8883  0.007 45.335   12  0.114   12  0.091   11  0.092   12 0.5106   24  3.825   13 -0.054    9  0.239
PISTONS       44 42  8741  8725 -0.009 43.777   13  0.041   13  0.023   16 -0.033   13 0.5021   18  3.838   17 -0.117   13  0.051
MAVERICKS     43 44  8857  8973  0.024 45.640   14  0.032   14  0.014   17 -0.071   14 0.5007   22  3.830   22 -0.195   12  0.052
BULLS         42 40  8335  8456 -0.034 41.345   15  0.025   15  0.007   19 -0.162   15 0.5005   15  3.854   21 -0.170   18 -0.153
ROCKETS       42 45  9193  9271  0.026 45.603   16  0.004   16 -0.018   14  0.020   16 0.4990    4  3.920    5  0.336   23 -0.296
WIZARDS       41 41  8534  8575 -0.028 41.283   17 -0.003   18 -0.025   15  0.007   18 0.4976    5  3.904    8  0.247   21 -0.234
GRIZZLIES     42 44  8450  8722 -0.010 44.686   18 -0.005   17 -0.023   24 -0.260   17 0.4978   27  3.803   28 -0.513   14 -0.006
JAZZ          40 42  8010  7863 -0.005 41.253   19 -0.021   19 -0.052    9  0.138   19 0.4949   30  3.720   27 -0.497    2  0.773
MAGIC         35 47  8369  8502 -0.041 41.191   20 -0.196   20 -0.214   18 -0.151   20 0.4792   14  3.860   19 -0.131   19 -0.171
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS         33 49  8740  8943 -0.035 41.589   21 -0.234   23 -0.256   20 -0.194   23 0.4741    2  3.955    6  0.303   30 -0.692
NUGGETS       33 49  8355  8609 -0.033 41.882   22 -0.236   22 -0.254   21 -0.213   21 0.4749   11  3.873   18 -0.129   22 -0.296
BUCKS         33 49  8122  8465 -0.041 41.785   23 -0.238   21 -0.254   25 -0.282   22 0.4748   20  3.834   24 -0.385   20 -0.178
KNICKS        32 50  8065  8289 -0.048 41.306   24 -0.267   24 -0.292   23 -0.249   24 0.4707   26  3.808   26 -0.480   15 -0.018
PELICANS      30 52  8423  8734 -0.043 41.730   25 -0.328   25 -0.352   26 -0.301   25 0.4654    6  3.902   14 -0.075   25 -0.526
TIMBERWOLVES  29 53  8398  8688 -0.042 41.611   26 -0.340   26 -0.365   22 -0.231   26 0.4619   10  3.881   16 -0.105   24 -0.358
SUNS          23 59  8271  8817 -0.060 41.952   27 -0.544   27 -0.572   27 -0.478   27 0.4448    7  3.899   23 -0.266   29 -0.689
NETS          21 61  8089  8692 -0.064 41.893   28 -0.602   28 -0.630   28 -0.521   28 0.4387   12  3.865   25 -0.476   26 -0.566
LAKERS        17 65  7982  8766 -0.057 42.707   29 -0.732   29 -0.766   29 -0.624   29 0.4287   16  3.853   30 -0.635   27 -0.612
76ERS         10 72  7988  8827 -0.075 41.982   30 -1.015   30 -1.072   30 -0.646   30 0.4064   13  3.862   29 -0.617   28 -0.675
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      88 18 12006 11019  0.107 55.424    1  0.988    1  0.947    3  0.609    1 0.5841    1  3.962    1  1.138   11  0.080
CLIPPERS      55 33  9159  8802  0.005 44.017    6  0.313    6  0.288    5  0.271    6 0.5281   19  3.838   10  0.185    6  0.358
KINGS         33 49  8740  8943 -0.035 41.589   21 -0.234   23 -0.256   20 -0.194   23 0.4741    2  3.955    6  0.303   30 -0.692
SUNS          23 59  8271  8817 -0.060 41.952   27 -0.544   27 -0.572   27 -0.478   27 0.4448    7  3.899   23 -0.266   29 -0.689
LAKERS        17 65  7982  8766 -0.057 42.707   29 -0.732   29 -0.766   29 -0.624   29 0.4287   16  3.853   30 -0.635   27 -0.612

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       66 34 10953 10261  0.138 53.364    4  0.524    4  0.482    2  0.616    4 0.5465    3  3.924    2  0.954    8  0.278
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 44  9777  9737  0.054 49.207   11  0.125   11  0.102    8  0.141   11 0.5114    8  3.896    4  0.340   16 -0.058
JAZZ          40 42  8010  7863 -0.005 41.253   19 -0.021   19 -0.052    9  0.138   19 0.4949   30  3.720   27 -0.497    2  0.773
NUGGETS       33 49  8355  8609 -0.033 41.882   22 -0.236   22 -0.254   21 -0.213   21 0.4749   11  3.873   18 -0.129   22 -0.296
TIMBERWOLVES  29 53  8398  8688 -0.042 41.611   26 -0.340   26 -0.365   22 -0.231   26 0.4619   10  3.881   16 -0.105   24 -0.358

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SPURS         73 19  9510  8547  0.073 46.374    2  0.845    2  0.801    1  0.666    2 0.5714   29  3.773    7  0.273    1  1.059
MAVERICKS     43 44  8857  8973  0.024 45.640   14  0.032   14  0.014   17 -0.071   14 0.5007   22  3.830   22 -0.195   12  0.052
ROCKETS       42 45  9193  9271  0.026 45.603   16  0.004   16 -0.018   14  0.020   16 0.4990    4  3.920    5  0.336   23 -0.296
GRIZZLIES     42 44  8450  8722 -0.010 44.686   18 -0.005   17 -0.023   24 -0.260   17 0.4978   27  3.803   28 -0.513   14 -0.006
PELICANS      30 52  8423  8734 -0.043 41.730   25 -0.328   25 -0.352   26 -0.301   25 0.4654    6  3.902   14 -0.075   25 -0.526

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     73 30 10755 10082  0.076 53.428    3  0.598    3  0.565    4  0.605    3 0.5553   21  3.831    3  0.484    3  0.727
PACERS        48 41  9033  8883  0.007 45.335   12  0.114   12  0.091   11  0.092   12 0.5106   24  3.825   13 -0.054    9  0.239
PISTONS       44 42  8741  8725 -0.009 43.777   13  0.041   13  0.023   16 -0.033   13 0.5021   18  3.838   17 -0.117   13  0.051
BULLS         42 40  8335  8456 -0.034 41.345   15  0.025   15  0.007   19 -0.162   15 0.5005   15  3.854   21 -0.170   18 -0.153
BUCKS         33 49  8122  8465 -0.041 41.785   23 -0.238   21 -0.254   25 -0.282   22 0.4748   20  3.834   24 -0.385   20 -0.178

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          55 41  9560  9381  0.008 48.957    7  0.202    7  0.170    7  0.173    7 0.5188   28  3.785   20 -0.165    4  0.512
HAWKS         52 40  9434  9148  0.029 47.255    8  0.201    8  0.165    6  0.254    8 0.5171   23  3.829   11  0.127    5  0.382
HORNETS       51 38  9111  8950 -0.017 44.566    9  0.181    9  0.155   13  0.073    9 0.5154   17  3.843   12  0.014   10  0.132
WIZARDS       41 41  8534  8575 -0.028 41.283   17 -0.003   18 -0.025   15  0.007   18 0.4976    5  3.904    8  0.247   21 -0.234
MAGIC         35 47  8369  8502 -0.041 41.191   20 -0.196   20 -0.214   18 -0.151   20 0.4792   14  3.860   19 -0.131   19 -0.171

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAPTORS       66 36 10290 10006  0.026 52.396    5  0.397    5  0.370   10  0.129    5 0.5368   25  3.810   15 -0.090    7  0.349
CELTICS       50 38  9232  9009 -0.012 44.019   10  0.171   10  0.142   12  0.077   10 0.5134    9  3.888    9  0.235   17 -0.081
KNICKS        32 50  8065  8289 -0.048 41.306   24 -0.267   24 -0.292   23 -0.249   24 0.4707   26  3.808   26 -0.480   15 -0.018
NETS          21 61  8089  8692 -0.064 41.893   28 -0.602   28 -0.630   28 -0.521   28 0.4387   12  3.865   25 -0.476   26 -0.566
76ERS         10 72  7988  8827 -0.075 41.982   30 -1.015   30 -1.072   30 -0.646   30 0.4064   13  3.862   29 -0.617   28 -0.675

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 234 207 0.531    1  0.059
NORTHWEST DIVISION 217 222 0.494    2  0.056
CENTRAL DIVISION   240 202 0.543    3  0.039
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 230 204 0.530    4  0.024
PACIFIC DIVISION   216 224 0.491    5 -0.096
ATLANTIC DIVISION  179 257 0.411    6 -0.260

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.250 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.024 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:05:19 2024
games through: Sun Jun 19 2016

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