Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       76 23 10997 10271  0.072 50.662    1  0.715    1  0.680    2  0.441    1 0.5682   13  3.919    2  0.568    5  0.313
WARRIORS      74 29 11623 10923  0.071 52.717    2  0.574    2  0.553    1  0.484    2 0.5584    2  3.956    1  0.800    9  0.169
RAPTORS       63 29 10229  9635 -0.009 44.601    3  0.441    3  0.408    5  0.272    3 0.5426   12  3.921    5  0.408   12  0.135
CELTICS       66 35 10455 10148 -0.009 49.644    4  0.347    4  0.335   11  0.121    4 0.5370   29  3.804   24 -0.312    3  0.554
76ERS         57 35 10092  9684  0.003 45.350    5  0.286    5  0.257    4  0.339    5 0.5288   10  3.929    4  0.515   10  0.162
CAVALIERS     62 42 11316 11277  0.029 53.158    6  0.266    6  0.243   14  0.065    6 0.5270    5  3.948    7  0.339   21 -0.210
JAZZ          53 40  9666  9337  0.071 48.250    7  0.238    8  0.207    3  0.339    8 0.5224   28  3.816   17 -0.035    1  0.713
PELICANS      53 38 10151 10051  0.044 46.832    8  0.234    7  0.213    7  0.150    7 0.5234    1  3.970    3  0.539   22 -0.240
THUNDER       50 38  9451  9197  0.026 44.383    9  0.194    9  0.168    6  0.166   11 0.5165   16  3.895   11  0.175   11  0.157
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 37  9083  8906  0.004 42.791   10  0.173   10  0.150    9  0.128   10 0.5167   21  3.863   16 -0.023    7  0.279
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACERS        51 38  9360  9207 -0.018 43.681   11  0.168   11  0.147   10  0.124    9 0.5170   22  3.859   18 -0.047    6  0.294
SPURS         48 39  8908  8715  0.036 44.213   12  0.160   12  0.140    8  0.147   13 0.5147   30  3.800   23 -0.304    2  0.597
TIMBERWOLVES  48 39  9488  9349  0.042 44.556   13  0.157   13  0.138   13  0.089   12 0.5157   11  3.928    9  0.264   17 -0.086
NUGGETS       46 36  9020  8899  0.000 40.815   14  0.143   14  0.128   12  0.101   14 0.5132    6  3.945    6  0.358   19 -0.157
BUCKS         47 42  9444  9473 -0.010 44.354   15  0.060   15  0.054   17 -0.010   15 0.5070   15  3.898   13  0.013   16 -0.033
WIZARDS       45 43  9385  9349  0.012 44.423   16  0.040   16  0.030   16 -0.002   16 0.5033   19  3.893   14 -0.003   15 -0.002
CLIPPERS      42 40  8937  8934 -0.007 40.874   17  0.036   17  0.025   19 -0.033   17 0.5020    3  3.954    8  0.274   25 -0.340
HEAT          45 42  8997  9012 -0.019 42.977   18  0.031   18  0.019   18 -0.011   18 0.5013   26  3.827   25 -0.336    4  0.314
PISTONS       39 43  8509  8521 -0.029 40.241   19 -0.056   19 -0.078   20 -0.038   19 0.4914   23  3.848   19 -0.261    8  0.185
HORNETS       36 46  8874  8853 -0.033 40.052   20 -0.151   20 -0.169   15  0.010   20 0.4817    8  3.932   10  0.202   20 -0.182
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        35 47  8862  8989 -0.018 40.867   21 -0.164   21 -0.178   21 -0.053   21 0.4807    9  3.931   12  0.136   23 -0.242
KNICKS        29 53  8566  8858 -0.038 40.591   22 -0.330   22 -0.356   24 -0.284   22 0.4620   20  3.891   21 -0.297   24 -0.272
NETS          28 54  8741  9048 -0.035 40.700   23 -0.362   24 -0.385   23 -0.217   23 0.4592    7  3.932   15 -0.021   28 -0.413
KINGS         27 55  8104  8677 -0.026 41.594   24 -0.367   23 -0.384   27 -0.351   24 0.4577   27  3.819   29 -0.710   14  0.009
BULLS         27 55  8440  9017 -0.042 40.983   25 -0.399   25 -0.415   29 -0.474   25 0.4564   18  3.894   28 -0.472   29 -0.476
MAVERICKS     24 58  8390  8639 -0.009 41.433   26 -0.454   26 -0.481   22 -0.202   26 0.4498   24  3.847   27 -0.429   13  0.026
MAGIC         25 57  8479  8874 -0.055 40.291   27 -0.460   27 -0.484   25 -0.339   27 0.4490   17  3.894   26 -0.337   26 -0.341
HAWKS         24 58  8475  8922 -0.038 40.892   28 -0.468   28 -0.492   26 -0.341   28 0.4475   14  3.902   22 -0.299   27 -0.383
GRIZZLIES     22 60  8145  8654 -0.027 41.551   29 -0.506   29 -0.534   28 -0.465   29 0.4432   25  3.828   30 -0.785   18 -0.145
SUNS          21 61  8522  9290 -0.028 41.937   30 -0.545   30 -0.568   30 -0.540   30 0.4408    4  3.948   20 -0.265   30 -0.815
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      74 29 11623 10923  0.071 52.717    2  0.574    2  0.553    1  0.484    2 0.5584    2  3.956    1  0.800    9  0.169
CLIPPERS      42 40  8937  8934 -0.007 40.874   17  0.036   17  0.025   19 -0.033   17 0.5020    3  3.954    8  0.274   25 -0.340
LAKERS        35 47  8862  8989 -0.018 40.867   21 -0.164   21 -0.178   21 -0.053   21 0.4807    9  3.931   12  0.136   23 -0.242
KINGS         27 55  8104  8677 -0.026 41.594   24 -0.367   23 -0.384   27 -0.351   24 0.4577   27  3.819   29 -0.710   14  0.009
SUNS          21 61  8522  9290 -0.028 41.937   30 -0.545   30 -0.568   30 -0.540   30 0.4408    4  3.948   20 -0.265   30 -0.815

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAZZ          53 40  9666  9337  0.071 48.250    7  0.238    8  0.207    3  0.339    8 0.5224   28  3.816   17 -0.035    1  0.713
THUNDER       50 38  9451  9197  0.026 44.383    9  0.194    9  0.168    6  0.166   11 0.5165   16  3.895   11  0.175   11  0.157
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 37  9083  8906  0.004 42.791   10  0.173   10  0.150    9  0.128   10 0.5167   21  3.863   16 -0.023    7  0.279
TIMBERWOLVES  48 39  9488  9349  0.042 44.556   13  0.157   13  0.138   13  0.089   12 0.5157   11  3.928    9  0.264   17 -0.086
NUGGETS       46 36  9020  8899  0.000 40.815   14  0.143   14  0.128   12  0.101   14 0.5132    6  3.945    6  0.358   19 -0.157

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       76 23 10997 10271  0.072 50.662    1  0.715    1  0.680    2  0.441    1 0.5682   13  3.919    2  0.568    5  0.313
PELICANS      53 38 10151 10051  0.044 46.832    8  0.234    7  0.213    7  0.150    7 0.5234    1  3.970    3  0.539   22 -0.240
SPURS         48 39  8908  8715  0.036 44.213   12  0.160   12  0.140    8  0.147   13 0.5147   30  3.800   23 -0.304    2  0.597
MAVERICKS     24 58  8390  8639 -0.009 41.433   26 -0.454   26 -0.481   22 -0.202   26 0.4498   24  3.847   27 -0.429   13  0.026
GRIZZLIES     22 60  8145  8654 -0.027 41.551   29 -0.506   29 -0.534   28 -0.465   29 0.4432   25  3.828   30 -0.785   18 -0.145

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     62 42 11316 11277  0.029 53.158    6  0.266    6  0.243   14  0.065    6 0.5270    5  3.948    7  0.339   21 -0.210
PACERS        51 38  9360  9207 -0.018 43.681   11  0.168   11  0.147   10  0.124    9 0.5170   22  3.859   18 -0.047    6  0.294
BUCKS         47 42  9444  9473 -0.010 44.354   15  0.060   15  0.054   17 -0.010   15 0.5070   15  3.898   13  0.013   16 -0.033
PISTONS       39 43  8509  8521 -0.029 40.241   19 -0.056   19 -0.078   20 -0.038   19 0.4914   23  3.848   19 -0.261    8  0.185
BULLS         27 55  8440  9017 -0.042 40.983   25 -0.399   25 -0.415   29 -0.474   25 0.4564   18  3.894   28 -0.472   29 -0.476

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WIZARDS       45 43  9385  9349  0.012 44.423   16  0.040   16  0.030   16 -0.002   16 0.5033   19  3.893   14 -0.003   15 -0.002
HEAT          45 42  8997  9012 -0.019 42.977   18  0.031   18  0.019   18 -0.011   18 0.5013   26  3.827   25 -0.336    4  0.314
HORNETS       36 46  8874  8853 -0.033 40.052   20 -0.151   20 -0.169   15  0.010   20 0.4817    8  3.932   10  0.202   20 -0.182
MAGIC         25 57  8479  8874 -0.055 40.291   27 -0.460   27 -0.484   25 -0.339   27 0.4490   17  3.894   26 -0.337   26 -0.341
HAWKS         24 58  8475  8922 -0.038 40.892   28 -0.468   28 -0.492   26 -0.341   28 0.4475   14  3.902   22 -0.299   27 -0.383

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAPTORS       63 29 10229  9635 -0.009 44.601    3  0.441    3  0.408    5  0.272    3 0.5426   12  3.921    5  0.408   12  0.135
CELTICS       66 35 10455 10148 -0.009 49.644    4  0.347    4  0.335   11  0.121    4 0.5370   29  3.804   24 -0.312    3  0.554
76ERS         57 35 10092  9684  0.003 45.350    5  0.286    5  0.257    4  0.339    5 0.5288   10  3.929    4  0.515   10  0.162
KNICKS        29 53  8566  8858 -0.038 40.591   22 -0.330   22 -0.356   24 -0.284   22 0.4620   20  3.891   21 -0.297   24 -0.272
NETS          28 54  8741  9048 -0.035 40.700   23 -0.362   24 -0.385   23 -0.217   23 0.4592    7  3.932   15 -0.021   28 -0.413

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 246 190 0.564    1  0.199
ATLANTIC DIVISION  243 206 0.541    2  0.087
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 223 218 0.506    3  0.041
CENTRAL DIVISION   226 220 0.507    4 -0.095
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 175 246 0.416    5 -0.174
PACIFIC DIVISION   199 232 0.462    6 -0.176

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.198 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.022 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:05:52 2024
games through: Fri Jun  8 2018

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