Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     17  3 462 409  0.091 10.581    1  0.748    1  0.722   12  0.112    1 0.6213   23  1.185   15 -0.012    5  0.236
EAGLES     18  3 608 380  0.034 10.008    2  0.725    2  0.672    1  0.551    2 0.6189   13  1.290    5  0.565    1  0.538
LIONS      15  3 595 387  0.138  9.453    3  0.702    3  0.651    3  0.473    3 0.6150    3  1.558    1  0.872   14  0.074
VIKINGS    14  4 441 359  0.055  9.141    4  0.543    4  0.522   11  0.133    4 0.5854   15  1.243   10  0.084    9  0.182
BILLS      15  5 612 432  0.087 10.082    5  0.505    5  0.482    4  0.401    5 0.5771    4  1.538    3  0.769   16  0.033
RAVENS     13  6 571 402  0.151 10.083    6  0.404    7  0.371    2  0.493    6 0.5754    5  1.484    2  0.780    7  0.206
COMMANDERS 14  6 576 497  0.042  9.999    7  0.400    6  0.387    8  0.154    7 0.5675    2  1.570    4  0.572   26 -0.263
PACKERS    11  7 470 360  0.161  9.649    8  0.275    8  0.257    5  0.330    8 0.5489   12  1.314    8  0.376    4  0.284
RAMS       11  8 416 423  0.123 10.457    9  0.210    9  0.211    9  0.152    9 0.5358   17  1.232    9  0.089    6  0.216
SEAHAWKS   10  7 375 368  0.064  8.943   10  0.170   10  0.166   13  0.089   11 0.5263   19  1.226   14  0.018   10  0.161
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHARGERS   11  7 414 333 -0.027  8.637   11  0.165   11  0.161   10  0.139   10 0.5281   28  1.128   18 -0.057    3  0.336
TEXANS     11  8 418 407 -0.029  9.394   12  0.114   12  0.112   16 -0.001   15 0.5204   22  1.215   19 -0.087   13  0.085
STEELERS   10  8 394 375  0.049  9.310   13  0.111   13  0.110   17 -0.015   12 0.5249   25  1.146   20 -0.189   11  0.160
BRONCOS    10  8 432 342  0.048  9.034   14  0.104   14  0.099    6  0.233   14 0.5211   26  1.143   12  0.055    2  0.411
BUCCANEERS 10  8 522 408  0.000  8.659   15  0.075   15  0.074    7  0.203   13 0.5226    6  1.447    7  0.436   18 -0.030
BENGALS     9  8 472 434 -0.060  8.060   16 -0.005   16 -0.010   14  0.083   16 0.5038    1  1.597    6  0.541   30 -0.376
CARDINALS   8  9 400 379  0.077  9.006   17 -0.021   17 -0.025   15  0.063   17 0.4966   14  1.274   13  0.054   15  0.071
FALCONS     8  9 389 423 -0.080  8.261   18 -0.083   18 -0.092   20 -0.126   18 0.4936   10  1.344   16 -0.039   24 -0.213
COLTS       8  9 377 427 -0.111  8.128   19 -0.109   19 -0.119   23 -0.228   20 0.4678    9  1.411   17 -0.047   31 -0.409
DOLPHINS    8  9 345 364 -0.142  7.832   20 -0.133   20 -0.144   18 -0.067   22 0.4587   27  1.131   23 -0.259   12  0.126
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COWBOYS     7 10 350 468 -0.058  8.726   21 -0.151   21 -0.160   25 -0.270   19 0.4801   11  1.324   22 -0.210   29 -0.330
49ERS       6 11 389 436  0.097  9.383   22 -0.163   22 -0.191   19 -0.114   21 0.4666    8  1.414   11  0.071   27 -0.299
BEARS       5 12 310 370  0.026  9.076   23 -0.303   23 -0.335   21 -0.156   23 0.4414   31  1.000   29 -0.505    8  0.194
JETS        5 12 338 404 -0.054  8.462   24 -0.358   24 -0.395   22 -0.190   26 0.4197   21  1.218   24 -0.272   20 -0.108
SAINTS      5 12 338 398 -0.126  8.178   25 -0.400   26 -0.441   28 -0.312   24 0.4330   24  1.165   28 -0.462   21 -0.162
PANTHERS    5 12 341 534 -0.127  8.495   26 -0.403   25 -0.406   31 -0.427   25 0.4306    7  1.442   21 -0.201   32 -0.652
RAIDERS     4 13 309 434 -0.043  8.860   27 -0.449   27 -0.464   24 -0.264   27 0.4195   16  1.240   25 -0.318   23 -0.210
PATRIOTS    4 13 289 417 -0.087  8.387   28 -0.469   28 -0.486   27 -0.288   31 0.3938   29  1.110   30 -0.506   19 -0.070
JAGUARS     4 13 320 435 -0.153  8.130   29 -0.525   29 -0.557   26 -0.287   30 0.3967   18  1.231   26 -0.352   25 -0.222
BROWNS      3 14 258 435 -0.052  9.013   30 -0.536   30 -0.564   32 -0.477   29 0.4023   30  1.049   31 -0.770   22 -0.184
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TITANS      3 14 311 460 -0.076  8.665   31 -0.568   31 -0.599   29 -0.386   32 0.3875   20  1.226   27 -0.458   28 -0.314
GIANTS      3 14 273 415 -0.089  8.671   32 -0.573   32 -0.605   30 -0.397   28 0.4086   32  0.977   32 -0.773   17 -0.021

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     17  3 462 409  0.091 10.581    1  0.748    1  0.722   12  0.112    1 0.6213   23  1.185   15 -0.012    5  0.236
CHARGERS   11  7 414 333 -0.027  8.637   11  0.165   11  0.161   10  0.139   10 0.5281   28  1.128   18 -0.057    3  0.336
BRONCOS    10  8 432 342  0.048  9.034   14  0.104   14  0.099    6  0.233   14 0.5211   26  1.143   12  0.055    2  0.411
RAIDERS     4 13 309 434 -0.043  8.860   27 -0.449   27 -0.464   24 -0.264   27 0.4195   16  1.240   25 -0.318   23 -0.210

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS     11  8 418 407 -0.029  9.394   12  0.114   12  0.112   16 -0.001   15 0.5204   22  1.215   19 -0.087   13  0.085
COLTS       8  9 377 427 -0.111  8.128   19 -0.109   19 -0.119   23 -0.228   20 0.4678    9  1.411   17 -0.047   31 -0.409
JAGUARS     4 13 320 435 -0.153  8.130   29 -0.525   29 -0.557   26 -0.287   30 0.3967   18  1.231   26 -0.352   25 -0.222
TITANS      3 14 311 460 -0.076  8.665   31 -0.568   31 -0.599   29 -0.386   32 0.3875   20  1.226   27 -0.458   28 -0.314

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     13  6 571 402  0.151 10.083    6  0.404    7  0.371    2  0.493    6 0.5754    5  1.484    2  0.780    7  0.206
STEELERS   10  8 394 375  0.049  9.310   13  0.111   13  0.110   17 -0.015   12 0.5249   25  1.146   20 -0.189   11  0.160
BENGALS     9  8 472 434 -0.060  8.060   16 -0.005   16 -0.010   14  0.083   16 0.5038    1  1.597    6  0.541   30 -0.376
BROWNS      3 14 258 435 -0.052  9.013   30 -0.536   30 -0.564   32 -0.477   29 0.4023   30  1.049   31 -0.770   22 -0.184

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      15  5 612 432  0.087 10.082    5  0.505    5  0.482    4  0.401    5 0.5771    4  1.538    3  0.769   16  0.033
DOLPHINS    8  9 345 364 -0.142  7.832   20 -0.133   20 -0.144   18 -0.067   22 0.4587   27  1.131   23 -0.259   12  0.126
JETS        5 12 338 404 -0.054  8.462   24 -0.358   24 -0.395   22 -0.190   26 0.4197   21  1.218   24 -0.272   20 -0.108
PATRIOTS    4 13 289 417 -0.087  8.387   28 -0.469   28 -0.486   27 -0.288   31 0.3938   29  1.110   30 -0.506   19 -0.070

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS       11  8 416 423  0.123 10.457    9  0.210    9  0.211    9  0.152    9 0.5358   17  1.232    9  0.089    6  0.216
SEAHAWKS   10  7 375 368  0.064  8.943   10  0.170   10  0.166   13  0.089   11 0.5263   19  1.226   14  0.018   10  0.161
CARDINALS   8  9 400 379  0.077  9.006   17 -0.021   17 -0.025   15  0.063   17 0.4966   14  1.274   13  0.054   15  0.071
49ERS       6 11 389 436  0.097  9.383   22 -0.163   22 -0.191   19 -0.114   21 0.4666    8  1.414   11  0.071   27 -0.299

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS 10  8 522 408  0.000  8.659   15  0.075   15  0.074    7  0.203   13 0.5226    6  1.447    7  0.436   18 -0.030
FALCONS     8  9 389 423 -0.080  8.261   18 -0.083   18 -0.092   20 -0.126   18 0.4936   10  1.344   16 -0.039   24 -0.213
SAINTS      5 12 338 398 -0.126  8.178   25 -0.400   26 -0.441   28 -0.312   24 0.4330   24  1.165   28 -0.462   21 -0.162
PANTHERS    5 12 341 534 -0.127  8.495   26 -0.403   25 -0.406   31 -0.427   25 0.4306    7  1.442   21 -0.201   32 -0.652

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      15  3 595 387  0.138  9.453    3  0.702    3  0.651    3  0.473    3 0.6150    3  1.558    1  0.872   14  0.074
VIKINGS    14  4 441 359  0.055  9.141    4  0.543    4  0.522   11  0.133    4 0.5854   15  1.243   10  0.084    9  0.182
PACKERS    11  7 470 360  0.161  9.649    8  0.275    8  0.257    5  0.330    8 0.5489   12  1.314    8  0.376    4  0.284
BEARS       5 12 310 370  0.026  9.076   23 -0.303   23 -0.335   21 -0.156   23 0.4414   31  1.000   29 -0.505    8  0.194

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     18  3 608 380  0.034 10.008    2  0.725    2  0.672    1  0.551    2 0.6189   13  1.290    5  0.565    1  0.538
COMMANDERS 14  6 576 497  0.042  9.999    7  0.400    6  0.387    8  0.154    7 0.5675    2  1.570    4  0.572   26 -0.263
COWBOYS     7 10 350 468 -0.058  8.726   21 -0.151   21 -0.160   25 -0.270   19 0.4801   11  1.324   22 -0.210   29 -0.330
GIANTS      3 14 273 415 -0.089  8.671   32 -0.573   32 -0.605   30 -0.397   28 0.4086   32  0.977   32 -0.773   17 -0.021

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  45 26 0.634    1  0.397
AFC WEST   42 31 0.575    2  0.118
NFC WEST   35 35 0.500    3  0.088
AFC NORTH  35 36 0.493    4  0.051
NFC EAST   42 33 0.560    5 -0.052
AFC EAST   32 39 0.451    6 -0.117
NFC SOUTH  28 41 0.406    7 -0.277
AFC SOUTH  26 44 0.371    8 -0.369

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.143 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.015 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Feb 10 05:30:08 2025
games through: Sun Feb  9 2025

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