Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY     15  4  0 452 233  0.155  9.821    1  0.560    1  0.541    1  0.655    1 0.5957   32  0.779   12  0.142    1  1.168
OAKLAND       13  6  0 542 386  0.192 10.448    2  0.395    2  0.383    2  0.478    2 0.5804    6  1.382    2  0.697    7  0.259
GREEN BAY     12  5  0 405 355  0.027  8.540    3  0.352    3  0.340   11  0.072    4 0.5532   13  1.263   13  0.128   12  0.017
PHILADELPHIA  13  5  0 445 274 -0.028  8.163    4  0.329    4  0.314    3  0.331    3 0.5652   24  1.143    8  0.231    2  0.431
PITTSBURGH    11  6  1 457 412  0.030  9.103    5  0.247    5  0.232   10  0.108    6 0.5442    4  1.461    5  0.439   23 -0.223
TENNESSEE     12  6  0 425 396 -0.045  8.633    6  0.246    6  0.226    9  0.134    5 0.5512    9  1.354    6  0.314   17 -0.045
ATLANTA       10  7  1 435 341  0.144  9.545    7  0.201    7  0.183    5  0.267    9 0.5319   20  1.177   10  0.210    6  0.324
SAN FRANCISCO 11  7  0 412 420 -0.030  8.938    8  0.193    8  0.175   21 -0.104    7 0.5441    8  1.354   16  0.076   26 -0.283
NEW ENGLAND    9  7  0 381 346  0.144  8.890    9  0.184    9  0.168   12  0.066   10 0.5285   14  1.259   14  0.116   13  0.015
N.Y. JETS     10  8  0 410 366  0.148  9.991   10  0.183   10  0.164    4  0.292   11 0.5240   21  1.163    9  0.218    3  0.366
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MIAMI          9  7  0 378 301  0.125  8.537   11  0.178   12  0.145    6  0.226   12 0.5231   26  1.122   15  0.100    4  0.352
DENVER         9  7  0 392 344  0.123  8.627   12  0.168   11  0.149    7  0.177    8 0.5341   12  1.266    7  0.237    9  0.117
NEW ORLEANS    9  7  0 432 388  0.036  8.166   13  0.130   13  0.108   15  0.012   15 0.5176    2  1.597    3  0.549   31 -0.524
INDIANAPOLIS  10  7  0 349 354 -0.078  8.121   14  0.125   14  0.103   19 -0.093   14 0.5209   17  1.204   21 -0.115   19 -0.072
KANSAS CITY    8  8  0 467 399  0.139  8.715   15  0.084   15  0.062    8  0.168   16 0.5134    1  1.607    1  0.720   28 -0.384
CLEVELAND      9  8  0 377 356  0.015  8.629   16  0.052   16  0.046   14  0.037   17 0.5082   18  1.204   18  0.015   10  0.059
N.Y. GIANTS   10  7  0 358 318 -0.143  7.614   17  0.048   17  0.039   13  0.047   13 0.5230   27  1.118   19 -0.083    8  0.178
BUFFALO        8  8  0 379 397  0.044  8.465   18  0.036   18  0.032   16 -0.036   19 0.4933    5  1.386   11  0.188   25 -0.261
SAN DIEGO      8  8  0 333 367  0.034  8.452   19  0.030   19  0.032   24 -0.135   18 0.5042   23  1.149   26 -0.227   16 -0.044
BALTIMORE      7  9  0 316 354 -0.007  8.254   20 -0.094   20 -0.098   22 -0.121   23 0.4780   19  1.192   22 -0.158   20 -0.083
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAROLINA       7  9  0 258 302 -0.034  8.169   21 -0.108   21 -0.119   23 -0.123   24 0.4719   30  0.825   29 -0.588    5  0.342
SEATTLE        7  9  0 355 369 -0.089  7.689   22 -0.140   23 -0.152   18 -0.051   21 0.4819   11  1.289   17  0.039   21 -0.140
ST LOUIS       7  9  0 316 369 -0.093  7.831   23 -0.141   22 -0.146   26 -0.200   20 0.4835   15  1.240   23 -0.175   24 -0.225
WASHINGTON     7  9  0 307 365 -0.160  7.427   24 -0.171   24 -0.180   25 -0.188   22 0.4787   16  1.230   24 -0.175   22 -0.200
MINNESOTA      6 10  0 390 442  0.008  8.296   25 -0.183   25 -0.191   17 -0.037   26 0.4528    3  1.572    4  0.462   32 -0.535
JACKSONVILLE   6 10  0 328 315 -0.123  7.334   26 -0.261   26 -0.273   20 -0.101   25 0.4532   22  1.150   25 -0.191   14 -0.010
CHICAGO        4 12  0 281 379  0.043  8.727   27 -0.340   27 -0.352   27 -0.240   29 0.4181   28  1.082   28 -0.414   18 -0.067
ARIZONA        5 11  0 262 417 -0.170  7.683   28 -0.353   28 -0.367   32 -0.486   27 0.4380   25  1.136   30 -0.594   27 -0.378
DALLAS         5 11  0 217 329 -0.229  7.097   29 -0.397   29 -0.413   31 -0.429   28 0.4300   31  0.815   32 -0.904   11  0.046
HOUSTON        4 12  0 213 356 -0.185  7.601   30 -0.451   30 -0.469   30 -0.427   30 0.4138   29  0.876   31 -0.838   15 -0.017
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        3 13  0 306 451 -0.070  8.216   31 -0.507   31 -0.528   28 -0.315   31 0.3895    7  1.373   20 -0.108   30 -0.521
CINCINNATI     2 14  0 279 456 -0.057  8.291   32 -0.595   32 -0.621   29 -0.389   32 0.3819   10  1.314   27 -0.265   29 -0.513

AFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OAKLAND       13  6  0 542 386  0.192 10.448    2  0.395    2  0.383    2  0.478    2 0.5804    6  1.382    2  0.697    7  0.259
DENVER         9  7  0 392 344  0.123  8.627   12  0.168   11  0.149    7  0.177    8 0.5341   12  1.266    7  0.237    9  0.117
KANSAS CITY    8  8  0 467 399  0.139  8.715   15  0.084   15  0.062    8  0.168   16 0.5134    1  1.607    1  0.720   28 -0.384
SAN DIEGO      8  8  0 333 367  0.034  8.452   19  0.030   19  0.032   24 -0.135   18 0.5042   23  1.149   26 -0.227   16 -0.044

AFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TENNESSEE     12  6  0 425 396 -0.045  8.633    6  0.246    6  0.226    9  0.134    5 0.5512    9  1.354    6  0.314   17 -0.045
INDIANAPOLIS  10  7  0 349 354 -0.078  8.121   14  0.125   14  0.103   19 -0.093   14 0.5209   17  1.204   21 -0.115   19 -0.072
JACKSONVILLE   6 10  0 328 315 -0.123  7.334   26 -0.261   26 -0.273   20 -0.101   25 0.4532   22  1.150   25 -0.191   14 -0.010
HOUSTON        4 12  0 213 356 -0.185  7.601   30 -0.451   30 -0.469   30 -0.427   30 0.4138   29  0.876   31 -0.838   15 -0.017

AFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    11  6  1 457 412  0.030  9.103    5  0.247    5  0.232   10  0.108    6 0.5442    4  1.461    5  0.439   23 -0.223
CLEVELAND      9  8  0 377 356  0.015  8.629   16  0.052   16  0.046   14  0.037   17 0.5082   18  1.204   18  0.015   10  0.059
BALTIMORE      7  9  0 316 354 -0.007  8.254   20 -0.094   20 -0.098   22 -0.121   23 0.4780   19  1.192   22 -0.158   20 -0.083
CINCINNATI     2 14  0 279 456 -0.057  8.291   32 -0.595   32 -0.621   29 -0.389   32 0.3819   10  1.314   27 -0.265   29 -0.513

AFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND    9  7  0 381 346  0.144  8.890    9  0.184    9  0.168   12  0.066   10 0.5285   14  1.259   14  0.116   13  0.015
N.Y. JETS     10  8  0 410 366  0.148  9.991   10  0.183   10  0.164    4  0.292   11 0.5240   21  1.163    9  0.218    3  0.366
MIAMI          9  7  0 378 301  0.125  8.537   11  0.178   12  0.145    6  0.226   12 0.5231   26  1.122   15  0.100    4  0.352
BUFFALO        8  8  0 379 397  0.044  8.465   18  0.036   18  0.032   16 -0.036   19 0.4933    5  1.386   11  0.188   25 -0.261

NFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN FRANCISCO 11  7  0 412 420 -0.030  8.938    8  0.193    8  0.175   21 -0.104    7 0.5441    8  1.354   16  0.076   26 -0.283
SEATTLE        7  9  0 355 369 -0.089  7.689   22 -0.140   23 -0.152   18 -0.051   21 0.4819   11  1.289   17  0.039   21 -0.140
ST LOUIS       7  9  0 316 369 -0.093  7.831   23 -0.141   22 -0.146   26 -0.200   20 0.4835   15  1.240   23 -0.175   24 -0.225
ARIZONA        5 11  0 262 417 -0.170  7.683   28 -0.353   28 -0.367   32 -0.486   27 0.4380   25  1.136   30 -0.594   27 -0.378

NFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY     15  4  0 452 233  0.155  9.821    1  0.560    1  0.541    1  0.655    1 0.5957   32  0.779   12  0.142    1  1.168
ATLANTA       10  7  1 435 341  0.144  9.545    7  0.201    7  0.183    5  0.267    9 0.5319   20  1.177   10  0.210    6  0.324
NEW ORLEANS    9  7  0 432 388  0.036  8.166   13  0.130   13  0.108   15  0.012   15 0.5176    2  1.597    3  0.549   31 -0.524
CAROLINA       7  9  0 258 302 -0.034  8.169   21 -0.108   21 -0.119   23 -0.123   24 0.4719   30  0.825   29 -0.588    5  0.342

NFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     12  5  0 405 355  0.027  8.540    3  0.352    3  0.340   11  0.072    4 0.5532   13  1.263   13  0.128   12  0.017
MINNESOTA      6 10  0 390 442  0.008  8.296   25 -0.183   25 -0.191   17 -0.037   26 0.4528    3  1.572    4  0.462   32 -0.535
CHICAGO        4 12  0 281 379  0.043  8.727   27 -0.340   27 -0.352   27 -0.240   29 0.4181   28  1.082   28 -0.414   18 -0.067
DETROIT        3 13  0 306 451 -0.070  8.216   31 -0.507   31 -0.528   28 -0.315   31 0.3895    7  1.373   20 -0.108   30 -0.521

NFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA  13  5  0 445 274 -0.028  8.163    4  0.329    4  0.314    3  0.331    3 0.5652   24  1.143    8  0.231    2  0.431
N.Y. GIANTS   10  7  0 358 318 -0.143  7.614   17  0.048   17  0.039   13  0.047   13 0.5230   27  1.118   19 -0.083    8  0.178
WASHINGTON     7  9  0 307 365 -0.160  7.427   24 -0.171   24 -0.180   25 -0.188   22 0.4787   16  1.230   24 -0.175   22 -0.200
DALLAS         5 11  0 217 329 -0.229  7.097   29 -0.397   29 -0.413   31 -0.429   28 0.4300   31  0.815   32 -0.904   11  0.046

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC SOUTH  41 27  1 0.601    1  0.362
AFC WEST   38 29  0 0.567    2  0.336
AFC EAST   36 30  0 0.545    3  0.241
NFC EAST   35 32  0 0.522    4 -0.135
AFC NORTH  29 37  1 0.440    5 -0.181
AFC SOUTH  32 35  0 0.478    6 -0.202
NFC NORTH  25 40  0 0.385    7 -0.235
NFC WEST   30 36  0 0.455    8 -0.328

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.185 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.027 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:00:36 2024
games through: Sun Jan 26 2003

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