Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   17  2 522 311  0.352 11.340    1  0.955    1  0.920    1  0.733    1 0.6571   18  1.201    3  0.723    1  0.744
PITTSBURGH    16  2 419 309  0.237 10.419    2  0.856    2  0.850    2  0.441    2 0.6520   19  1.199    6  0.427    5  0.454
INDIANAPOLIS  13  5 574 395  0.207  9.945    3  0.502    3  0.486    3  0.435    4 0.5844    2  1.614    2  1.012   19 -0.142
PHILADELPHIA  15  4 461 308 -0.083  8.753    4  0.477    4  0.457    7  0.239    3 0.5875   23  1.104   11  0.107    7  0.371
SAN DIEGO     12  5 463 333  0.121  9.123    5  0.422    5  0.405    5  0.387    6 0.5645   11  1.313    5  0.525    9  0.248
N.Y. JETS     11  7 370 298  0.304 10.785    6  0.389    6  0.366    6  0.308    5 0.5672   28  0.930   15 -0.028    2  0.645
BALTIMORE      9  7 317 268  0.265  9.551    7  0.281    7  0.251    9  0.197    7 0.5527   29  0.888   21 -0.186    3  0.579
DENVER        10  7 405 353  0.131  9.409    8  0.241    8  0.207    8  0.197    9 0.5297   21  1.195   10  0.179   11  0.215
ATLANTA       12  6 397 381 -0.187  8.090    9  0.202    9  0.178   18 -0.104   12 0.5265   16  1.211   18 -0.101   17 -0.106
BUFFALO        9  7 395 284  0.174  8.745   10  0.186   11  0.166    4  0.388    8 0.5382   14  1.233    8  0.419    8  0.358
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JACKSONVILLE   9  7 261 280  0.101  8.966   11  0.181   10  0.176   15 -0.046   11 0.5267   31  0.692   30 -0.631    4  0.539
CINCINNATI     8  8 374 372  0.196  9.338   12  0.118   12  0.113   11  0.181   10 0.5282    5  1.472    4  0.544   20 -0.181
GREEN BAY     10  7 441 411 -0.196  7.494   13  0.016   13  0.004   14 -0.045   13 0.5054    3  1.544    7  0.425   29 -0.516
KANSAS CITY    7  9 483 435  0.167  9.153   14 -0.011   14 -0.017   10  0.190   14 0.4923    1  1.767    1  1.014   31 -0.635
ST LOUIS       9  9 363 459 -0.157  8.694   15 -0.068   15 -0.077   29 -0.284   16 0.4880   10  1.323   19 -0.132   27 -0.436
HOUSTON        7  9 309 339  0.042  8.577   16 -0.083   16 -0.089   12  0.016   18 0.4804   25  1.044   22 -0.189   10  0.222
MINNESOTA      9  9 450 439 -0.140  8.389   17 -0.089   17 -0.103   16 -0.073   15 0.4887    4  1.500    9  0.331   28 -0.477
SEATTLE        9  8 391 400 -0.257  7.272   18 -0.105   19 -0.125   24 -0.222   17 0.4839    7  1.365   14 -0.013   26 -0.431
NEW ORLEANS    8  8 348 405 -0.204  7.293   19 -0.119   18 -0.120   21 -0.155   19 0.4721    8  1.363   13  0.051   23 -0.362
CAROLINA       7  9 355 339 -0.147  7.419   20 -0.176   20 -0.208   13 -0.021   20 0.4617   20  1.199   16 -0.035   15 -0.008
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OAKLAND        5 11 320 442  0.136  9.558   21 -0.189   21 -0.214   27 -0.232   24 0.4541    9  1.340   17 -0.057   24 -0.407
N.Y. GIANTS    6 10 303 347 -0.125  7.759   22 -0.262   24 -0.293   26 -0.226   22 0.4575   17  1.206   24 -0.230   22 -0.222
CLEVELAND      4 12 276 390  0.228 10.019   23 -0.263   23 -0.284   22 -0.190   21 0.4582   15  1.217   20 -0.180   21 -0.201
DALLAS         6 10 293 405 -0.139  7.926   24 -0.263   22 -0.282   30 -0.319   23 0.4571   13  1.289   23 -0.213   25 -0.425
TENNESSEE      5 11 344 439  0.026  8.787   25 -0.278   25 -0.295   28 -0.234   28 0.4404    6  1.420   12  0.053   30 -0.521
WASHINGTON     6 10 240 265 -0.171  7.425   26 -0.304   27 -0.325   20 -0.143   25 0.4468   32  0.690   31 -0.730    6  0.443
DETROIT        6 10 296 350 -0.182  7.368   27 -0.314   26 -0.322   25 -0.226   27 0.4432   22  1.125   26 -0.333   18 -0.118
MIAMI          4 12 275 354  0.137  9.458   28 -0.333   28 -0.338   17 -0.073   26 0.4448   24  1.082   25 -0.233   13  0.086
ARIZONA        6 10 284 322 -0.231  7.180   29 -0.356   29 -0.370   23 -0.220   29 0.4359   27  0.980   28 -0.500   14  0.060
CHICAGO        5 11 231 331 -0.225  7.383   30 -0.422   30 -0.434   31 -0.470   30 0.4140   30  0.822   32 -0.924   16 -0.017
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY      5 11 301 304 -0.220  7.027   31 -0.426   31 -0.464   19 -0.114   31 0.4117   26  0.989   27 -0.384   12  0.155
SAN FRANCISCO  2 14 259 452 -0.271  7.418   32 -0.767   32 -0.788   32 -0.619   32 0.3595   12  1.297   29 -0.502   32 -0.735

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN DIEGO     12  5 463 333  0.121  9.123    5  0.422    5  0.405    5  0.387    6 0.5645   11  1.313    5  0.525    9  0.248
DENVER        10  7 405 353  0.131  9.409    8  0.241    8  0.207    8  0.197    9 0.5297   21  1.195   10  0.179   11  0.215
KANSAS CITY    7  9 483 435  0.167  9.153   14 -0.011   14 -0.017   10  0.190   14 0.4923    1  1.767    1  1.014   31 -0.635
OAKLAND        5 11 320 442  0.136  9.558   21 -0.189   21 -0.214   27 -0.232   24 0.4541    9  1.340   17 -0.057   24 -0.407

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANAPOLIS  13  5 574 395  0.207  9.945    3  0.502    3  0.486    3  0.435    4 0.5844    2  1.614    2  1.012   19 -0.142
JACKSONVILLE   9  7 261 280  0.101  8.966   11  0.181   10  0.176   15 -0.046   11 0.5267   31  0.692   30 -0.631    4  0.539
HOUSTON        7  9 309 339  0.042  8.577   16 -0.083   16 -0.089   12  0.016   18 0.4804   25  1.044   22 -0.189   10  0.222
TENNESSEE      5 11 344 439  0.026  8.787   25 -0.278   25 -0.295   28 -0.234   28 0.4404    6  1.420   12  0.053   30 -0.521

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    16  2 419 309  0.237 10.419    2  0.856    2  0.850    2  0.441    2 0.6520   19  1.199    6  0.427    5  0.454
BALTIMORE      9  7 317 268  0.265  9.551    7  0.281    7  0.251    9  0.197    7 0.5527   29  0.888   21 -0.186    3  0.579
CINCINNATI     8  8 374 372  0.196  9.338   12  0.118   12  0.113   11  0.181   10 0.5282    5  1.472    4  0.544   20 -0.181
CLEVELAND      4 12 276 390  0.228 10.019   23 -0.263   23 -0.284   22 -0.190   21 0.4582   15  1.217   20 -0.180   21 -0.201

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   17  2 522 311  0.352 11.340    1  0.955    1  0.920    1  0.733    1 0.6571   18  1.201    3  0.723    1  0.744
N.Y. JETS     11  7 370 298  0.304 10.785    6  0.389    6  0.366    6  0.308    5 0.5672   28  0.930   15 -0.028    2  0.645
BUFFALO        9  7 395 284  0.174  8.745   10  0.186   11  0.166    4  0.388    8 0.5382   14  1.233    8  0.419    8  0.358
MIAMI          4 12 275 354  0.137  9.458   28 -0.333   28 -0.338   17 -0.073   26 0.4448   24  1.082   25 -0.233   13  0.086

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST LOUIS       9  9 363 459 -0.157  8.694   15 -0.068   15 -0.077   29 -0.284   16 0.4880   10  1.323   19 -0.132   27 -0.436
SEATTLE        9  8 391 400 -0.257  7.272   18 -0.105   19 -0.125   24 -0.222   17 0.4839    7  1.365   14 -0.013   26 -0.431
ARIZONA        6 10 284 322 -0.231  7.180   29 -0.356   29 -0.370   23 -0.220   29 0.4359   27  0.980   28 -0.500   14  0.060
SAN FRANCISCO  2 14 259 452 -0.271  7.418   32 -0.767   32 -0.788   32 -0.619   32 0.3595   12  1.297   29 -0.502   32 -0.735

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATLANTA       12  6 397 381 -0.187  8.090    9  0.202    9  0.178   18 -0.104   12 0.5265   16  1.211   18 -0.101   17 -0.106
NEW ORLEANS    8  8 348 405 -0.204  7.293   19 -0.119   18 -0.120   21 -0.155   19 0.4721    8  1.363   13  0.051   23 -0.362
CAROLINA       7  9 355 339 -0.147  7.419   20 -0.176   20 -0.208   13 -0.021   20 0.4617   20  1.199   16 -0.035   15 -0.008
TAMPA BAY      5 11 301 304 -0.220  7.027   31 -0.426   31 -0.464   19 -0.114   31 0.4117   26  0.989   27 -0.384   12  0.155

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     10  7 441 411 -0.196  7.494   13  0.016   13  0.004   14 -0.045   13 0.5054    3  1.544    7  0.425   29 -0.516
MINNESOTA      9  9 450 439 -0.140  8.389   17 -0.089   17 -0.103   16 -0.073   15 0.4887    4  1.500    9  0.331   28 -0.477
DETROIT        6 10 296 350 -0.182  7.368   27 -0.314   26 -0.322   25 -0.226   27 0.4432   22  1.125   26 -0.333   18 -0.118
CHICAGO        5 11 231 331 -0.225  7.383   30 -0.422   30 -0.434   31 -0.470   30 0.4140   30  0.822   32 -0.924   16 -0.017

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA  15  4 461 308 -0.083  8.753    4  0.477    4  0.457    7  0.239    3 0.5875   23  1.104   11  0.107    7  0.371
N.Y. GIANTS    6 10 303 347 -0.125  7.759   22 -0.262   24 -0.293   26 -0.226   22 0.4575   17  1.206   24 -0.230   22 -0.222
DALLAS         6 10 293 405 -0.139  7.926   24 -0.263   22 -0.282   30 -0.319   23 0.4571   13  1.289   23 -0.213   25 -0.425
WASHINGTON     6 10 240 265 -0.171  7.425   26 -0.304   27 -0.325   20 -0.143   25 0.4468   32  0.690   31 -0.730    6  0.443

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   41 28 0.594    1  0.507
AFC NORTH  37 29 0.561    2  0.277
AFC WEST   34 32 0.515    3  0.246
AFC SOUTH  34 32 0.515    4  0.102
NFC EAST   33 34 0.493    5 -0.187
NFC SOUTH  32 34 0.485    6 -0.222
NFC NORTH  30 37 0.448    7 -0.310
NFC WEST   26 41 0.388    8 -0.538

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.189 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.021 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:01:34 2024
games through: Sun Feb 13 2005

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