Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DENVER        14  4 439 305  0.214 10.095    1  0.657    1  0.627    3  0.474    1 0.6035   19  1.150    7  0.456    3  0.491
INDIANAPOLIS  14  3 457 268  0.103  8.338    2  0.652    2  0.620    4  0.424    2 0.5968   17  1.162    9  0.422    4  0.427
PITTSBURGH    15  5 496 320  0.238 11.018    3  0.635    3  0.593    1  0.643    3 0.5955   20  1.140    1  0.613    1  0.673
SEATTLE       15  4 516 316  0.023  9.052    4  0.563    4  0.530    2  0.479    4 0.5835   14  1.208    5  0.535    5  0.424
JACKSONVILLE  12  5 364 297  0.009  8.457    5  0.404    5  0.383   11  0.076    5 0.5584   27  1.053   15 -0.061    9  0.212
WASHINGTON    11  7 386 323  0.176 10.127    6  0.310    6  0.292    9  0.268    6 0.5570   23  1.095   12  0.182    6  0.355
KANSAS CITY   10  6 403 325  0.156  8.770    7  0.307    7  0.282    6  0.337    9 0.5489    5  1.329    4  0.553   13  0.120
CINCINNATI    11  6 438 381  0.048  8.705    8  0.294    8  0.280   13  0.045   12 0.5446    1  1.563    2  0.601   30 -0.510
CAROLINA      13  6 457 314 -0.018  9.044    9  0.290   11  0.273    5  0.387    7 0.5530   11  1.216    8  0.453    7  0.321
N.Y. GIANTS   11  6 422 337  0.073  8.778   10  0.280    9  0.279   10  0.156    8 0.5528    8  1.299   10  0.332   16 -0.020
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   11  7 420 368  0.138  9.652   11  0.273   10  0.274    8  0.291   10 0.5471    6  1.316    6  0.491   14  0.091
SAN DIEGO      9  7 418 312  0.281  9.388   12  0.271   12  0.255    7  0.308   11 0.5453    3  1.362    3  0.570   15  0.046
CHICAGO       11  6 281 231 -0.102  7.828   13  0.203   13  0.183   12  0.053   13 0.5340   32  0.635   29 -0.531    2  0.636
DALLAS         9  7 325 308  0.115  8.764   14  0.191   14  0.175   14  0.030   14 0.5311   26  1.067   17 -0.089   12  0.150
TAMPA BAY     11  6 310 291 -0.164  7.638   15  0.171   15  0.151   18 -0.088   15 0.5302   29  0.957   25 -0.337   11  0.161
MIAMI          9  7 318 317 -0.083  7.769   16  0.082   16  0.070   16 -0.065   17 0.5070   18  1.162   16 -0.067   17 -0.062
MINNESOTA      9  7 306 344 -0.110  7.797   17  0.071   17  0.060   17 -0.076   16 0.5079   16  1.196   14 -0.036   19 -0.117
ATLANTA        8  8 351 341 -0.130  7.424   18 -0.069   18 -0.098   19 -0.139   18 0.4881    4  1.339   13  0.092   26 -0.370
PHILADELPHIA   6 10 310 388  0.076  8.983   19 -0.137   19 -0.151   21 -0.214   19 0.4711   10  1.225   19 -0.136   23 -0.292
BALTIMORE      6 10 265 299 -0.009  8.326   20 -0.210   20 -0.229   15 -0.021   20 0.4620   30  0.941   23 -0.289    8  0.246
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLEVELAND      6 10 232 301 -0.051  8.199   21 -0.246   21 -0.252   22 -0.215   21 0.4574   31  0.806   32 -0.628   10  0.198
ST. LOUIS      6 10 363 429 -0.188  7.500   22 -0.331   22 -0.339   25 -0.246   22 0.4479    2  1.520   11  0.244   32 -0.736
BUFFALO        5 11 271 367 -0.073  8.202   23 -0.351   23 -0.356   24 -0.240   23 0.4357   24  1.087   24 -0.336   20 -0.145
OAKLAND        4 12 290 383  0.093  9.155   24 -0.360   24 -0.375   26 -0.249   24 0.4346   15  1.204   21 -0.199   25 -0.299
DETROIT        5 11 254 345 -0.128  7.782   25 -0.388   25 -0.406   27 -0.332   26 0.4317   25  1.071   27 -0.447   21 -0.216
ARIZONA        5 11 311 387 -0.123  7.879   26 -0.395   26 -0.413   20 -0.198   25 0.4341    9  1.242   18 -0.097   24 -0.299
N.Y. JETS      4 12 240 355 -0.059  8.482   27 -0.458   27 -0.476   28 -0.340   27 0.4225   28  0.963   30 -0.582   18 -0.099
GREEN BAY      4 12 298 344 -0.081  8.000   28 -0.470   28 -0.488   23 -0.232   29 0.4181   13  1.210   20 -0.173   22 -0.291
SAN FRANCISCO  4 12 239 428 -0.126  8.310   29 -0.473   29 -0.490   31 -0.474   28 0.4199   21  1.124   28 -0.524   27 -0.423
TENNESSEE      4 12 299 421 -0.130  8.104   30 -0.479   30 -0.514   29 -0.397   30 0.4137    7  1.305   22 -0.213   31 -0.581
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ORLEANS    3 13 235 398 -0.160  7.810   31 -0.581   31 -0.616   32 -0.509   31 0.3923   22  1.097   31 -0.593   28 -0.425
HOUSTON        2 14 260 431 -0.119  8.345   32 -0.704   32 -0.746   30 -0.427   32 0.3790   12  1.212   26 -0.367   29 -0.488

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DENVER        14  4 439 305  0.214 10.095    1  0.657    1  0.627    3  0.474    1 0.6035   19  1.150    7  0.456    3  0.491
KANSAS CITY   10  6 403 325  0.156  8.770    7  0.307    7  0.282    6  0.337    9 0.5489    5  1.329    4  0.553   13  0.120
SAN DIEGO      9  7 418 312  0.281  9.388   12  0.271   12  0.255    7  0.308   11 0.5453    3  1.362    3  0.570   15  0.046
OAKLAND        4 12 290 383  0.093  9.155   24 -0.360   24 -0.375   26 -0.249   24 0.4346   15  1.204   21 -0.199   25 -0.299

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANAPOLIS  14  3 457 268  0.103  8.338    2  0.652    2  0.620    4  0.424    2 0.5968   17  1.162    9  0.422    4  0.427
JACKSONVILLE  12  5 364 297  0.009  8.457    5  0.404    5  0.383   11  0.076    5 0.5584   27  1.053   15 -0.061    9  0.212
TENNESSEE      4 12 299 421 -0.130  8.104   30 -0.479   30 -0.514   29 -0.397   30 0.4137    7  1.305   22 -0.213   31 -0.581
HOUSTON        2 14 260 431 -0.119  8.345   32 -0.704   32 -0.746   30 -0.427   32 0.3790   12  1.212   26 -0.367   29 -0.488

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    15  5 496 320  0.238 11.018    3  0.635    3  0.593    1  0.643    3 0.5955   20  1.140    1  0.613    1  0.673
CINCINNATI    11  6 438 381  0.048  8.705    8  0.294    8  0.280   13  0.045   12 0.5446    1  1.563    2  0.601   30 -0.510
BALTIMORE      6 10 265 299 -0.009  8.326   20 -0.210   20 -0.229   15 -0.021   20 0.4620   30  0.941   23 -0.289    8  0.246
CLEVELAND      6 10 232 301 -0.051  8.199   21 -0.246   21 -0.252   22 -0.215   21 0.4574   31  0.806   32 -0.628   10  0.198

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   11  7 420 368  0.138  9.652   11  0.273   10  0.274    8  0.291   10 0.5471    6  1.316    6  0.491   14  0.091
MIAMI          9  7 318 317 -0.083  7.769   16  0.082   16  0.070   16 -0.065   17 0.5070   18  1.162   16 -0.067   17 -0.062
BUFFALO        5 11 271 367 -0.073  8.202   23 -0.351   23 -0.356   24 -0.240   23 0.4357   24  1.087   24 -0.336   20 -0.145
N.Y. JETS      4 12 240 355 -0.059  8.482   27 -0.458   27 -0.476   28 -0.340   27 0.4225   28  0.963   30 -0.582   18 -0.099

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE       15  4 516 316  0.023  9.052    4  0.563    4  0.530    2  0.479    4 0.5835   14  1.208    5  0.535    5  0.424
ST. LOUIS      6 10 363 429 -0.188  7.500   22 -0.331   22 -0.339   25 -0.246   22 0.4479    2  1.520   11  0.244   32 -0.736
ARIZONA        5 11 311 387 -0.123  7.879   26 -0.395   26 -0.413   20 -0.198   25 0.4341    9  1.242   18 -0.097   24 -0.299
SAN FRANCISCO  4 12 239 428 -0.126  8.310   29 -0.473   29 -0.490   31 -0.474   28 0.4199   21  1.124   28 -0.524   27 -0.423

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAROLINA      13  6 457 314 -0.018  9.044    9  0.290   11  0.273    5  0.387    7 0.5530   11  1.216    8  0.453    7  0.321
TAMPA BAY     11  6 310 291 -0.164  7.638   15  0.171   15  0.151   18 -0.088   15 0.5302   29  0.957   25 -0.337   11  0.161
ATLANTA        8  8 351 341 -0.130  7.424   18 -0.069   18 -0.098   19 -0.139   18 0.4881    4  1.339   13  0.092   26 -0.370
NEW ORLEANS    3 13 235 398 -0.160  7.810   31 -0.581   31 -0.616   32 -0.509   31 0.3923   22  1.097   31 -0.593   28 -0.425

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO       11  6 281 231 -0.102  7.828   13  0.203   13  0.183   12  0.053   13 0.5340   32  0.635   29 -0.531    2  0.636
MINNESOTA      9  7 306 344 -0.110  7.797   17  0.071   17  0.060   17 -0.076   16 0.5079   16  1.196   14 -0.036   19 -0.117
DETROIT        5 11 254 345 -0.128  7.782   25 -0.388   25 -0.406   27 -0.332   26 0.4317   25  1.071   27 -0.447   21 -0.216
GREEN BAY      4 12 298 344 -0.081  8.000   28 -0.470   28 -0.488   23 -0.232   29 0.4181   13  1.210   20 -0.173   22 -0.291

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WASHINGTON    11  7 386 323  0.176 10.127    6  0.310    6  0.292    9  0.268    6 0.5570   23  1.095   12  0.182    6  0.355
N.Y. GIANTS   11  6 422 337  0.073  8.778   10  0.280    9  0.279   10  0.156    8 0.5528    8  1.299   10  0.332   16 -0.020
DALLAS         9  7 325 308  0.115  8.764   14  0.191   14  0.175   14  0.030   14 0.5311   26  1.067   17 -0.089   12  0.150
PHILADELPHIA   6 10 310 388  0.076  8.983   19 -0.137   19 -0.151   21 -0.214   19 0.4711   10  1.225   19 -0.136   23 -0.292

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC WEST   37 29 0.561    1  0.395
NFC EAST   37 30 0.552    2  0.177
AFC NORTH  38 31 0.551    3  0.150
AFC SOUTH  32 34 0.485    4 -0.097
NFC SOUTH  35 33 0.515    5 -0.124
AFC EAST   29 37 0.439    6 -0.198
NFC NORTH  29 36 0.446    7 -0.241
NFC WEST   30 37 0.448    8 -0.273

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.255 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.026 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:45:38 2020
games through: Sun Feb  5 2006

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