Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANAPOLIS  16  4 532 425  0.275 11.824    1  0.686    1  0.675    2  0.424    1 0.6228    2  1.478    1  0.833   12  0.015
NEW ENGLAND   14  5 480 312  0.230 10.725    2  0.534    2  0.515    1  0.477    2 0.6023   17  1.174    4  0.470    2  0.484
SAN DIEGO     14  3 513 327  0.012  7.944    3  0.525    3  0.514    4  0.320    3 0.5988    1  1.536    2  0.815   24 -0.176
BALTIMORE     13  4 359 216  0.061  8.433    4  0.458    4  0.437    3  0.365    4 0.5815   31  0.784   19 -0.091    1  0.821
CHICAGO       15  4 510 322 -0.088  8.328    5  0.438    5  0.412    6  0.227    5 0.5799   13  1.255    8  0.324    8  0.130
N.Y. JETS     10  7 332 332  0.110  9.255    6  0.219    6  0.209   12  0.067    6 0.5400   19  1.140   14  0.017   10  0.118
PHILADELPHIA  11  7 445 375 -0.003  8.843    7  0.174    8  0.159    7  0.156    8 0.5285    8  1.319    7  0.339   14 -0.028
TENNESSEE      8  8 324 400  0.266  9.877    8  0.168    7  0.163   14  0.046    7 0.5316    7  1.339    9  0.256   23 -0.165
NEW ORLEANS   11  7 454 385 -0.055  8.471    9  0.143    9  0.131   10  0.108   11 0.5215    3  1.450    3  0.475   27 -0.259
DENVER         9  7 319 305  0.017  8.032   10  0.108   10  0.097   16  0.015    9 0.5261   23  1.092   20 -0.095    9  0.125
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JACKSONVILLE   8  8 371 274  0.188  8.936   11  0.094   11  0.083    5  0.311   10 0.5219   21  1.106   11  0.218    4  0.404
KANSAS CITY    9  8 339 338  0.009  8.670   12  0.050   12  0.055   18 -0.015   12 0.5116   20  1.136   18 -0.071   11  0.041
CINCINNATI     8  8 373 331  0.102  8.410   13  0.044   13  0.029    8  0.150   14 0.5067    6  1.361    5  0.391   19 -0.090
BUFFALO        7  9 300 311  0.222  9.361   14  0.028   14  0.014    9  0.144   13 0.5102   25  1.074   15  0.012    5  0.275
DALLAS         9  8 445 371 -0.027  8.172   15  0.025   15  0.008   13  0.052   16 0.4962    5  1.424    6  0.382   28 -0.278
PITTSBURGH     8  8 353 315  0.047  8.239   16  0.020   16  0.003   11  0.096   17 0.4944   10  1.297   10  0.249   17 -0.058
N.Y. GIANTS    8  9 375 385  0.076  9.079   17  0.008   17 -0.008   17 -0.013   18 0.4939   11  1.291   13  0.133   22 -0.158
SEATTLE       10  8 380 388 -0.204  7.774   18 -0.025   19 -0.043   19 -0.080   15 0.4994   15  1.225   16 -0.022   21 -0.137
GREEN BAY      8  8 301 366 -0.083  7.859   19 -0.027   18 -0.031   22 -0.137   19 0.4937   18  1.172   23 -0.147   20 -0.127
CAROLINA       8  8 270 305 -0.103  7.585   20 -0.044   20 -0.049   20 -0.100   21 0.4789   28  0.948   28 -0.379    6  0.179
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MIAMI          6 10 260 283  0.151  9.055   21 -0.101   21 -0.107   15  0.045   20 0.4819   29  0.860   27 -0.331    3  0.421
HOUSTON        6 10 267 366  0.095  9.005   22 -0.115   22 -0.114   21 -0.131   23 0.4737   22  1.098   25 -0.233   15 -0.029
ST. LOUIS      8  8 367 381 -0.270  6.549   23 -0.155   23 -0.164   23 -0.141   22 0.4769    4  1.428   12  0.196   32 -0.478
ATLANTA        7  9 292 328 -0.129  7.480   24 -0.166   24 -0.172   25 -0.179   25 0.4544   24  1.079   26 -0.305   16 -0.053
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9 298 412 -0.216  7.215   25 -0.199   25 -0.208   29 -0.290   24 0.4659   14  1.244   24 -0.206   29 -0.373
MINNESOTA      6 10 282 327 -0.143  7.430   26 -0.264   26 -0.283   27 -0.243   26 0.4490   26  1.045   29 -0.410   18 -0.076
WASHINGTON     5 11 307 376 -0.005  8.309   27 -0.275   27 -0.285   24 -0.176   27 0.4362   16  1.203   22 -0.146   26 -0.206
TAMPA BAY      4 12 211 353 -0.036  8.381   28 -0.388   28 -0.397   31 -0.383   30 0.4132   30  0.847   31 -0.772   13  0.007
CLEVELAND      4 12 238 356 -0.022  8.475   29 -0.390   29 -0.400   30 -0.355   29 0.4208   27  1.040   30 -0.528   25 -0.183
ARIZONA        5 11 314 389 -0.240  6.945   30 -0.417   30 -0.432   28 -0.246   28 0.4233   12  1.277   21 -0.120   30 -0.373
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        3 13 305 398 -0.120  7.749   31 -0.534   31 -0.552   26 -0.238   31 0.3954    9  1.308   17 -0.069   31 -0.407
OAKLAND        2 14 168 332 -0.112  8.204   32 -0.622   32 -0.647   32 -0.516   32 0.3845   32  0.573   32 -1.176    7  0.145

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN DIEGO     14  3 513 327  0.012  7.944    3  0.525    3  0.514    4  0.320    3 0.5988    1  1.536    2  0.815   24 -0.176
DENVER         9  7 319 305  0.017  8.032   10  0.108   10  0.097   16  0.015    9 0.5261   23  1.092   20 -0.095    9  0.125
KANSAS CITY    9  8 339 338  0.009  8.670   12  0.050   12  0.055   18 -0.015   12 0.5116   20  1.136   18 -0.071   11  0.041
OAKLAND        2 14 168 332 -0.112  8.204   32 -0.622   32 -0.647   32 -0.516   32 0.3845   32  0.573   32 -1.176    7  0.145

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANAPOLIS  16  4 532 425  0.275 11.824    1  0.686    1  0.675    2  0.424    1 0.6228    2  1.478    1  0.833   12  0.015
TENNESSEE      8  8 324 400  0.266  9.877    8  0.168    7  0.163   14  0.046    7 0.5316    7  1.339    9  0.256   23 -0.165
JACKSONVILLE   8  8 371 274  0.188  8.936   11  0.094   11  0.083    5  0.311   10 0.5219   21  1.106   11  0.218    4  0.404
HOUSTON        6 10 267 366  0.095  9.005   22 -0.115   22 -0.114   21 -0.131   23 0.4737   22  1.098   25 -0.233   15 -0.029

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BALTIMORE     13  4 359 216  0.061  8.433    4  0.458    4  0.437    3  0.365    4 0.5815   31  0.784   19 -0.091    1  0.821
CINCINNATI     8  8 373 331  0.102  8.410   13  0.044   13  0.029    8  0.150   14 0.5067    6  1.361    5  0.391   19 -0.090
PITTSBURGH     8  8 353 315  0.047  8.239   16  0.020   16  0.003   11  0.096   17 0.4944   10  1.297   10  0.249   17 -0.058
CLEVELAND      4 12 238 356 -0.022  8.475   29 -0.390   29 -0.400   30 -0.355   29 0.4208   27  1.040   30 -0.528   25 -0.183

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   14  5 480 312  0.230 10.725    2  0.534    2  0.515    1  0.477    2 0.6023   17  1.174    4  0.470    2  0.484
N.Y. JETS     10  7 332 332  0.110  9.255    6  0.219    6  0.209   12  0.067    6 0.5400   19  1.140   14  0.017   10  0.118
BUFFALO        7  9 300 311  0.222  9.361   14  0.028   14  0.014    9  0.144   13 0.5102   25  1.074   15  0.012    5  0.275
MIAMI          6 10 260 283  0.151  9.055   21 -0.101   21 -0.107   15  0.045   20 0.4819   29  0.860   27 -0.331    3  0.421

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE       10  8 380 388 -0.204  7.774   18 -0.025   19 -0.043   19 -0.080   15 0.4994   15  1.225   16 -0.022   21 -0.137
ST. LOUIS      8  8 367 381 -0.270  6.549   23 -0.155   23 -0.164   23 -0.141   22 0.4769    4  1.428   12  0.196   32 -0.478
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9 298 412 -0.216  7.215   25 -0.199   25 -0.208   29 -0.290   24 0.4659   14  1.244   24 -0.206   29 -0.373
ARIZONA        5 11 314 389 -0.240  6.945   30 -0.417   30 -0.432   28 -0.246   28 0.4233   12  1.277   21 -0.120   30 -0.373

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ORLEANS   11  7 454 385 -0.055  8.471    9  0.143    9  0.131   10  0.108   11 0.5215    3  1.450    3  0.475   27 -0.259
CAROLINA       8  8 270 305 -0.103  7.585   20 -0.044   20 -0.049   20 -0.100   21 0.4789   28  0.948   28 -0.379    6  0.179
ATLANTA        7  9 292 328 -0.129  7.480   24 -0.166   24 -0.172   25 -0.179   25 0.4544   24  1.079   26 -0.305   16 -0.053
TAMPA BAY      4 12 211 353 -0.036  8.381   28 -0.388   28 -0.397   31 -0.383   30 0.4132   30  0.847   31 -0.772   13  0.007

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO       15  4 510 322 -0.088  8.328    5  0.438    5  0.412    6  0.227    5 0.5799   13  1.255    8  0.324    8  0.130
GREEN BAY      8  8 301 366 -0.083  7.859   19 -0.027   18 -0.031   22 -0.137   19 0.4937   18  1.172   23 -0.147   20 -0.127
MINNESOTA      6 10 282 327 -0.143  7.430   26 -0.264   26 -0.283   27 -0.243   26 0.4490   26  1.045   29 -0.410   18 -0.076
DETROIT        3 13 305 398 -0.120  7.749   31 -0.534   31 -0.552   26 -0.238   31 0.3954    9  1.308   17 -0.069   31 -0.407

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA  11  7 445 375 -0.003  8.843    7  0.174    8  0.159    7  0.156    8 0.5285    8  1.319    7  0.339   14 -0.028
DALLAS         9  8 445 371 -0.027  8.172   15  0.025   15  0.008   13  0.052   16 0.4962    5  1.424    6  0.382   28 -0.278
N.Y. GIANTS    8  9 375 385  0.076  9.079   17  0.008   17 -0.008   17 -0.013   18 0.4939   11  1.291   13  0.133   22 -0.158
WASHINGTON     5 11 307 376 -0.005  8.309   27 -0.275   27 -0.285   24 -0.176   27 0.4362   16  1.203   22 -0.146   26 -0.206

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   37 31 0.544    1  0.285
AFC SOUTH  38 30 0.559    2  0.242
AFC NORTH  33 32 0.508    3  0.146
NFC EAST   33 35 0.485    4  0.080
AFC WEST   34 32 0.515    5 -0.011
NFC NORTH  32 35 0.478    6 -0.180
NFC SOUTH  30 36 0.455    7 -0.250
NFC WEST   30 36 0.455    8 -0.424

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.104 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.015 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:02:28 2024
games through: Sat Feb 10 2007

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.