Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    15  4  0 432 284  0.240 10.464    1  0.675    1  0.677    2  0.523    1 0.6197   28  0.985   12  0.217    1  0.830
TENNESSEE     13  4  0 385 247  0.119  8.600    2  0.538    2  0.521    5  0.307    3 0.5863   30  0.929   19 -0.062    3  0.677
BALTIMORE     13  6  0 439 286  0.255 10.377    3  0.506    3  0.474    1  0.541    2 0.5944   26  1.096    8  0.366    2  0.717
INDIANAPOLIS  12  5  0 394 321  0.189  9.194    4  0.490    4  0.460    4  0.366    5 0.5756   20  1.182    9  0.299    4  0.433
N.Y. GIANTS   12  5  0 438 317  0.146  8.779    5  0.468    5  0.435    6  0.297    4 0.5802   10  1.325    6  0.418    9  0.176
CAROLINA      12  5  0 427 362  0.050  8.468    6  0.412    6  0.387   11  0.134    6 0.5551   16  1.239   14  0.140   12  0.128
PHILADELPHIA  11  7  1 490 346  0.178 10.043    7  0.295    7  0.260    3  0.450    7 0.5550   14  1.257    4  0.480    5  0.420
ATLANTA       11  6  0 415 355  0.021  8.348    8  0.274    8  0.259   12  0.121   11 0.5304   18  1.202   17  0.079   10  0.163
MINNESOTA     10  7  0 393 359  0.145  9.217    9  0.251    9  0.239   10  0.162   13 0.5256   17  1.211   15  0.131    7  0.192
NEW ENGLAND   11  5  0 410 309 -0.130  6.775   10  0.238   10  0.220    7  0.241    8 0.5470   13  1.272   10  0.291    8  0.192
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ARIZONA       12  8  0 545 515 -0.001  9.734   11  0.194   11  0.183   13  0.087   10 0.5345    1  1.630    2  0.659   29 -0.484
MIAMI         11  6  0 354 344 -0.139  7.508   12  0.178   12  0.175   19 -0.061    9 0.5347   25  1.102   23 -0.228   14  0.107
CHICAGO        9  7  0 375 350  0.067  8.207   13  0.150   13  0.147   15  0.035   15 0.5058   12  1.276   16  0.090   15 -0.020
DALLAS         9  7  0 362 365  0.084  8.373   14  0.146   14  0.142   16  0.022   12 0.5293    8  1.382   11  0.223   21 -0.179
TAMPA BAY      9  7  0 361 323 -0.024  7.634   15  0.079   15  0.068   18 -0.003   19 0.5014   23  1.143   20 -0.119   13  0.113
HOUSTON        8  8  0 366 394  0.074  8.437   16  0.057   16  0.045   17  0.014   14 0.5087    4  1.490    7  0.370   25 -0.342
WASHINGTON     8  8  0 265 296  0.014  8.204   17  0.023   17  0.006   21 -0.111   17 0.5037   32  0.851   28 -0.566    6  0.343
SAN DIEGO      9  9  0 486 399  0.010  8.673   18 -0.002   18 -0.021    8  0.201   16 0.5038    6  1.453    3  0.504   18 -0.102
N.Y. JETS      9  7  0 405 356 -0.213  6.575   19 -0.025   19 -0.033   20 -0.099   18 0.5015    7  1.431   13  0.172   27 -0.370
NEW ORLEANS    8  8  0 463 393 -0.029  7.543   20 -0.032   20 -0.039    9  0.165   20 0.4841    2  1.600    1  0.689   26 -0.360
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DENVER         8  8  0 370 448 -0.200  7.059   21 -0.122   21 -0.117   28 -0.354   21 0.4771    3  1.531   18  0.065   32 -0.772
GREEN BAY      6 10  0 419 380  0.058  8.135   22 -0.200   22 -0.199   14  0.087   27 0.4505    5  1.474    5  0.421   24 -0.247
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9  0 339 381 -0.196  7.031   23 -0.225   23 -0.230   23 -0.181   22 0.4590   15  1.252   21 -0.158   22 -0.204
BUFFALO        7  9  0 336 342 -0.267  6.469   24 -0.273   24 -0.277   26 -0.286   24 0.4565   21  1.171   25 -0.367   23 -0.205
JACKSONVILLE   5 11  0 302 367  0.049  8.515   25 -0.290   26 -0.287   22 -0.180   26 0.4512   19  1.198   22 -0.228   19 -0.133
CINCINNATI     4 11  1 204 364  0.087  9.168   26 -0.293   25 -0.283   25 -0.282   23 0.4580   31  0.877   31 -0.709   11  0.145
CLEVELAND      4 12  0 232 350  0.088  9.042   27 -0.357   27 -0.367   29 -0.370   25 0.4520   29  0.970   30 -0.694   16 -0.046
OAKLAND        5 11  0 263 388 -0.125  7.693   28 -0.370   28 -0.384   27 -0.333   28 0.4326   27  1.012   29 -0.608   17 -0.058
SEATTLE        4 12  0 294 392 -0.143  7.516   29 -0.490   29 -0.521   24 -0.279   29 0.4104   22  1.149   27 -0.388   20 -0.170
ST. LOUIS      2 14  0 232 465 -0.146  7.833   30 -0.707   30 -0.722   32 -0.610   30 0.3780   24  1.125   32 -0.748   28 -0.471
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KANSAS CITY    2 14  0 291 440 -0.159  7.540   31 -0.739   31 -0.761   30 -0.435   31 0.3737   11  1.289   24 -0.362   30 -0.508
DETROIT        0 16  0 268 517  0.063  8.923   32 -0.849   32 -0.893   31 -0.537   32 0.3405    9  1.358   26 -0.369   31 -0.704

AFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN DIEGO      9  9  0 486 399  0.010  8.673   18 -0.002   18 -0.021    8  0.201   16 0.5038    6  1.453    3  0.504   18 -0.102
DENVER         8  8  0 370 448 -0.200  7.059   21 -0.122   21 -0.117   28 -0.354   21 0.4771    3  1.531   18  0.065   32 -0.772
OAKLAND        5 11  0 263 388 -0.125  7.693   28 -0.370   28 -0.384   27 -0.333   28 0.4326   27  1.012   29 -0.608   17 -0.058
KANSAS CITY    2 14  0 291 440 -0.159  7.540   31 -0.739   31 -0.761   30 -0.435   31 0.3737   11  1.289   24 -0.362   30 -0.508

AFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TENNESSEE     13  4  0 385 247  0.119  8.600    2  0.538    2  0.521    5  0.307    3 0.5863   30  0.929   19 -0.062    3  0.677
INDIANAPOLIS  12  5  0 394 321  0.189  9.194    4  0.490    4  0.460    4  0.366    5 0.5756   20  1.182    9  0.299    4  0.433
HOUSTON        8  8  0 366 394  0.074  8.437   16  0.057   16  0.045   17  0.014   14 0.5087    4  1.490    7  0.370   25 -0.342
JACKSONVILLE   5 11  0 302 367  0.049  8.515   25 -0.290   26 -0.287   22 -0.180   26 0.4512   19  1.198   22 -0.228   19 -0.133

AFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    15  4  0 432 284  0.240 10.464    1  0.675    1  0.677    2  0.523    1 0.6197   28  0.985   12  0.217    1  0.830
BALTIMORE     13  6  0 439 286  0.255 10.377    3  0.506    3  0.474    1  0.541    2 0.5944   26  1.096    8  0.366    2  0.717
CINCINNATI     4 11  1 204 364  0.087  9.168   26 -0.293   25 -0.283   25 -0.282   23 0.4580   31  0.877   31 -0.709   11  0.145
CLEVELAND      4 12  0 232 350  0.088  9.042   27 -0.357   27 -0.367   29 -0.370   25 0.4520   29  0.970   30 -0.694   16 -0.046

AFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   11  5  0 410 309 -0.130  6.775   10  0.238   10  0.220    7  0.241    8 0.5470   13  1.272   10  0.291    8  0.192
MIAMI         11  6  0 354 344 -0.139  7.508   12  0.178   12  0.175   19 -0.061    9 0.5347   25  1.102   23 -0.228   14  0.107
N.Y. JETS      9  7  0 405 356 -0.213  6.575   19 -0.025   19 -0.033   20 -0.099   18 0.5015    7  1.431   13  0.172   27 -0.370
BUFFALO        7  9  0 336 342 -0.267  6.469   24 -0.273   24 -0.277   26 -0.286   24 0.4565   21  1.171   25 -0.367   23 -0.205

NFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ARIZONA       12  8  0 545 515 -0.001  9.734   11  0.194   11  0.183   13  0.087   10 0.5345    1  1.630    2  0.659   29 -0.484
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9  0 339 381 -0.196  7.031   23 -0.225   23 -0.230   23 -0.181   22 0.4590   15  1.252   21 -0.158   22 -0.204
SEATTLE        4 12  0 294 392 -0.143  7.516   29 -0.490   29 -0.521   24 -0.279   29 0.4104   22  1.149   27 -0.388   20 -0.170
ST. LOUIS      2 14  0 232 465 -0.146  7.833   30 -0.707   30 -0.722   32 -0.610   30 0.3780   24  1.125   32 -0.748   28 -0.471

NFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAROLINA      12  5  0 427 362  0.050  8.468    6  0.412    6  0.387   11  0.134    6 0.5551   16  1.239   14  0.140   12  0.128
ATLANTA       11  6  0 415 355  0.021  8.348    8  0.274    8  0.259   12  0.121   11 0.5304   18  1.202   17  0.079   10  0.163
TAMPA BAY      9  7  0 361 323 -0.024  7.634   15  0.079   15  0.068   18 -0.003   19 0.5014   23  1.143   20 -0.119   13  0.113
NEW ORLEANS    8  8  0 463 393 -0.029  7.543   20 -0.032   20 -0.039    9  0.165   20 0.4841    2  1.600    1  0.689   26 -0.360

NFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MINNESOTA     10  7  0 393 359  0.145  9.217    9  0.251    9  0.239   10  0.162   13 0.5256   17  1.211   15  0.131    7  0.192
CHICAGO        9  7  0 375 350  0.067  8.207   13  0.150   13  0.147   15  0.035   15 0.5058   12  1.276   16  0.090   15 -0.020
GREEN BAY      6 10  0 419 380  0.058  8.135   22 -0.200   22 -0.199   14  0.087   27 0.4505    5  1.474    5  0.421   24 -0.247
DETROIT        0 16  0 268 517  0.063  8.923   32 -0.849   32 -0.893   31 -0.537   32 0.3405    9  1.358   26 -0.369   31 -0.704

NFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
N.Y. GIANTS   12  5  0 438 317  0.146  8.779    5  0.468    5  0.435    6  0.297    4 0.5802   10  1.325    6  0.418    9  0.176
PHILADELPHIA  11  7  1 490 346  0.178 10.043    7  0.295    7  0.260    3  0.450    7 0.5550   14  1.257    4  0.480    5  0.420
DALLAS         9  7  0 362 365  0.084  8.373   14  0.146   14  0.142   16  0.022   12 0.5293    8  1.382   11  0.223   21 -0.179
WASHINGTON     8  8  0 265 296  0.014  8.204   17  0.023   17  0.006   21 -0.111   17 0.5037   32  0.851   28 -0.566    6  0.343

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC EAST   40 27  1 0.596    1  0.298
AFC SOUTH  38 28  0 0.576    2  0.224
NFC SOUTH  40 26  0 0.606    3  0.224
AFC NORTH  36 33  1 0.521    4  0.131
NFC NORTH  25 40  0 0.385    5 -0.042
AFC EAST   38 27  0 0.585    6 -0.061
AFC WEST   24 42  0 0.364    7 -0.434
NFC WEST   25 43  0 0.368    8 -0.468

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.176 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:03:26 2024
games through: Sun Feb  8 2009

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