Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   14  3 539 341  0.286  9.837    1  0.744    1  0.717    1  0.682    1 0.6334    1  1.593    1  1.186    7  0.178
PITTSBURGH    14  5 455 306  0.232 10.697    2  0.577    2  0.558    3  0.501    2 0.6014   24  1.083    6  0.300    2  0.701
GREEN BAY     14  6 509 316  0.273 11.478    3  0.540    4  0.509    2  0.655    3 0.5954   23  1.090    3  0.463    1  0.846
NY JETS       13  6 431 365  0.301 11.356    4  0.535    3  0.530    5  0.309    4 0.5928   21  1.127   14  0.162    4  0.456
BALTIMORE     13  5 411 308  0.159  9.619    5  0.503    5  0.485    4  0.348    5 0.5885   27  1.062   15  0.122    3  0.574
ATLANTA       13  4 435 336  0.001  8.121    6  0.483    6  0.462    8  0.171    6 0.5868   13  1.325    8  0.284   13  0.059
CHICAGO       12  6 383 331  0.112  9.609    7  0.369    7  0.344    7  0.177    7 0.5647   26  1.070   18 -0.038    5  0.393
PHILADELPHIA  10  7 455 398  0.097  9.099    8  0.216    8  0.190   10  0.133   10 0.5284    4  1.496    2  0.490   22 -0.224
NY GIANTS     10  6 394 347 -0.019  7.783    9  0.191    9  0.181    9  0.140   11 0.5257   15  1.300   13  0.218   12  0.062
INDIANAPOLIS  10  7 451 405  0.011  8.531   10  0.158   10  0.141   11  0.101   13 0.5114    7  1.416    4  0.341   21 -0.139
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ORLEANS   11  6 420 348 -0.176  7.235   11  0.137   12  0.116   13  0.062    8 0.5370   10  1.361   12  0.223   20 -0.100
TAMPA BAY     10  6 341 318 -0.153  7.142   12  0.126   11  0.119   14  0.043    9 0.5310   18  1.174   20 -0.044   10  0.130
MIAMI          7  9 273 333  0.230  9.656   13  0.055   13  0.050   17 -0.064   12 0.5115   31  0.988   26 -0.376    6  0.248
KANSAS CITY   10  7 373 356 -0.217  7.264   14  0.024   14  0.012   25 -0.189   14 0.4892   20  1.149   24 -0.307   18 -0.070
SAN DIEGO      9  7 441 322 -0.163  6.731   15  0.018   15 -0.034    6  0.196   16 0.4843   14  1.308    7  0.285   11  0.108
JACKSONVILLE   8  8 353 419 -0.072  7.879   16 -0.021   16 -0.042   24 -0.175   18 0.4714   12  1.350   17 -0.028   27 -0.321
DETROIT        6 10 362 369  0.170  9.116   17 -0.094   17 -0.114   12  0.091   15 0.4849    9  1.364   11  0.257   19 -0.075
MINNESOTA      6 10 281 348  0.139  9.238   18 -0.124   18 -0.121   21 -0.133   17 0.4831   28  1.024   27 -0.403    8  0.138
OAKLAND        8  8 410 371 -0.186  6.933   19 -0.129   19 -0.133   15  0.019   20 0.4673    6  1.420    9  0.264   23 -0.227
WASHINGTON     6 10 302 377  0.044  8.575   20 -0.163   20 -0.163   23 -0.171   23 0.4582   22  1.124   25 -0.321   16 -0.021
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DALLAS         6 10 394 436  0.017  8.366   21 -0.191   21 -0.199   18 -0.076   24 0.4565    2  1.528    5  0.328   29 -0.480
HOUSTON        6 10 390 427  0.008  8.263   22 -0.211   22 -0.214   16 -0.049   26 0.4484    5  1.464   10  0.261   28 -0.359
TENNESSEE      6 10 356 339 -0.007  8.066   23 -0.216   23 -0.231   20 -0.093   27 0.4446   19  1.166   22 -0.190   14  0.005
CLEVELAND      5 11 271 332  0.108  9.013   24 -0.228   24 -0.240   22 -0.156   19 0.4676   29  1.007   28 -0.446    9  0.135
SEATTLE        8 10 375 478 -0.294  7.682   25 -0.241   25 -0.259   29 -0.395   21 0.4618    8  1.413   21 -0.160   30 -0.630
BUFFALO        4 12 283 425  0.192  9.721   26 -0.294   26 -0.308   26 -0.234   22 0.4585   17  1.267   23 -0.201   26 -0.268
ST. LOUIS      7  9 289 328 -0.370  6.170   27 -0.317   27 -0.341   28 -0.324   28 0.4437   30  0.991   31 -0.633   15 -0.014
CINCINNATI     4 12 322 395  0.158  9.295   28 -0.326   28 -0.343   19 -0.085   25 0.4510   11  1.352   16  0.065   24 -0.235
SAN FRANCISCO  6 10 305 346 -0.322  6.587   29 -0.388   29 -0.416   27 -0.244   29 0.4352   25  1.075   29 -0.454   17 -0.034
DENVER         4 12 344 471 -0.176  7.516   30 -0.504   30 -0.527   30 -0.411   31 0.3969    3  1.506   19 -0.040   32 -0.782
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ARIZONA        5 11 289 434 -0.390  6.347   31 -0.524   31 -0.540   31 -0.626   30 0.4064   16  1.281   30 -0.573   31 -0.678
CAROLINA       2 14 196 408 -0.166  8.096   32 -0.703   32 -0.738   32 -0.640   32 0.3907   32  0.908   32 -1.042   25 -0.238

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KANSAS CITY   10  7 373 356 -0.217  7.264   14  0.024   14  0.012   25 -0.189   14 0.4892   20  1.149   24 -0.307   18 -0.070
SAN DIEGO      9  7 441 322 -0.163  6.731   15  0.018   15 -0.034    6  0.196   16 0.4843   14  1.308    7  0.285   11  0.108
OAKLAND        8  8 410 371 -0.186  6.933   19 -0.129   19 -0.133   15  0.019   20 0.4673    6  1.420    9  0.264   23 -0.227
DENVER         4 12 344 471 -0.176  7.516   30 -0.504   30 -0.527   30 -0.411   31 0.3969    3  1.506   19 -0.040   32 -0.782

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
INDIANAPOLIS  10  7 451 405  0.011  8.531   10  0.158   10  0.141   11  0.101   13 0.5114    7  1.416    4  0.341   21 -0.139
JACKSONVILLE   8  8 353 419 -0.072  7.879   16 -0.021   16 -0.042   24 -0.175   18 0.4714   12  1.350   17 -0.028   27 -0.321
HOUSTON        6 10 390 427  0.008  8.263   22 -0.211   22 -0.214   16 -0.049   26 0.4484    5  1.464   10  0.261   28 -0.359
TENNESSEE      6 10 356 339 -0.007  8.066   23 -0.216   23 -0.231   20 -0.093   27 0.4446   19  1.166   22 -0.190   14  0.005

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    14  5 455 306  0.232 10.697    2  0.577    2  0.558    3  0.501    2 0.6014   24  1.083    6  0.300    2  0.701
BALTIMORE     13  5 411 308  0.159  9.619    5  0.503    5  0.485    4  0.348    5 0.5885   27  1.062   15  0.122    3  0.574
CLEVELAND      5 11 271 332  0.108  9.013   24 -0.228   24 -0.240   22 -0.156   19 0.4676   29  1.007   28 -0.446    9  0.135
CINCINNATI     4 12 322 395  0.158  9.295   28 -0.326   28 -0.343   19 -0.085   25 0.4510   11  1.352   16  0.065   24 -0.235

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND   14  3 539 341  0.286  9.837    1  0.744    1  0.717    1  0.682    1 0.6334    1  1.593    1  1.186    7  0.178
NY JETS       13  6 431 365  0.301 11.356    4  0.535    3  0.530    5  0.309    4 0.5928   21  1.127   14  0.162    4  0.456
MIAMI          7  9 273 333  0.230  9.656   13  0.055   13  0.050   17 -0.064   12 0.5115   31  0.988   26 -0.376    6  0.248
BUFFALO        4 12 283 425  0.192  9.721   26 -0.294   26 -0.308   26 -0.234   22 0.4585   17  1.267   23 -0.201   26 -0.268

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEATTLE        8 10 375 478 -0.294  7.682   25 -0.241   25 -0.259   29 -0.395   21 0.4618    8  1.413   21 -0.160   30 -0.630
ST. LOUIS      7  9 289 328 -0.370  6.170   27 -0.317   27 -0.341   28 -0.324   28 0.4437   30  0.991   31 -0.633   15 -0.014
SAN FRANCISCO  6 10 305 346 -0.322  6.587   29 -0.388   29 -0.416   27 -0.244   29 0.4352   25  1.075   29 -0.454   17 -0.034
ARIZONA        5 11 289 434 -0.390  6.347   31 -0.524   31 -0.540   31 -0.626   30 0.4064   16  1.281   30 -0.573   31 -0.678

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATLANTA       13  4 435 336  0.001  8.121    6  0.483    6  0.462    8  0.171    6 0.5868   13  1.325    8  0.284   13  0.059
NEW ORLEANS   11  6 420 348 -0.176  7.235   11  0.137   12  0.116   13  0.062    8 0.5370   10  1.361   12  0.223   20 -0.100
TAMPA BAY     10  6 341 318 -0.153  7.142   12  0.126   11  0.119   14  0.043    9 0.5310   18  1.174   20 -0.044   10  0.130
CAROLINA       2 14 196 408 -0.166  8.096   32 -0.703   32 -0.738   32 -0.640   32 0.3907   32  0.908   32 -1.042   25 -0.238

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     14  6 509 316  0.273 11.478    3  0.540    4  0.509    2  0.655    3 0.5954   23  1.090    3  0.463    1  0.846
CHICAGO       12  6 383 331  0.112  9.609    7  0.369    7  0.344    7  0.177    7 0.5647   26  1.070   18 -0.038    5  0.393
DETROIT        6 10 362 369  0.170  9.116   17 -0.094   17 -0.114   12  0.091   15 0.4849    9  1.364   11  0.257   19 -0.075
MINNESOTA      6 10 281 348  0.139  9.238   18 -0.124   18 -0.121   21 -0.133   17 0.4831   28  1.024   27 -0.403    8  0.138

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA  10  7 455 398  0.097  9.099    8  0.216    8  0.190   10  0.133   10 0.5284    4  1.496    2  0.490   22 -0.224
NY GIANTS     10  6 394 347 -0.019  7.783    9  0.191    9  0.181    9  0.140   11 0.5257   15  1.300   13  0.218   12  0.062
WASHINGTON     6 10 302 377  0.044  8.575   20 -0.163   20 -0.163   23 -0.171   23 0.4582   22  1.124   25 -0.321   16 -0.021
DALLAS         6 10 394 436  0.017  8.366   21 -0.191   21 -0.199   18 -0.076   24 0.4565    2  1.528    5  0.328   29 -0.480

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  38 32 0.543    1  0.292
AFC EAST   38 30 0.559    2  0.273
AFC NORTH  36 33 0.522    3  0.249
NFC EAST   32 33 0.492    4  0.036
AFC SOUTH  30 35 0.462    5 -0.058
NFC SOUTH  36 30 0.545    6 -0.131
AFC WEST   31 34 0.477    7 -0.142
NFC WEST   26 40 0.394    8 -0.664

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.141 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.020 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:04:03 2024
games through: Sun Feb  6 2011

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