Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS   17  2 590 371 -0.047  8.695    1  0.747    1  0.704    3  0.458    1 0.6164    6  1.422    1  0.672   10  0.244
BRONCOS    15  4 422 340  0.243 11.343    2  0.708    2  0.666    6  0.378    2 0.6153   28  1.032   14  0.083    1  0.673
CARDINALS  14  4 530 382  0.191 10.073    3  0.640    3  0.600    7  0.337    3 0.6086    4  1.493    2  0.655   15  0.020
BENGALS    12  5 435 297  0.213  9.614    4  0.502    4  0.462    4  0.399    4 0.5752   23  1.193    8  0.301    5  0.496
CHIEFS     12  6 455 314  0.216 10.324    5  0.441    5  0.402    2  0.520    5 0.5709   24  1.190    6  0.419    3  0.620
PATRIOTS   13  5 510 355  0.002  8.800    6  0.397    6  0.358    8  0.289    9 0.5599    9  1.368    5  0.427   12  0.150
STEELERS   11  7 457 358  0.276 10.627    7  0.376    8  0.346    5  0.384   10 0.5589   15  1.311    4  0.442    6  0.325
SEAHAWKS   11  7 457 317  0.261 10.415    8  0.364    9  0.321    1  0.547    8 0.5652   21  1.210    3  0.472    2  0.622
VIKINGS    11  6 374 312  0.180  9.811    9  0.349    7  0.355    9  0.271    6 0.5688   27  1.083   15  0.037    4  0.504
PACKERS    11  7 423 367  0.218 10.570   10  0.319   10  0.319   10  0.222    7 0.5665   18  1.239   10  0.185    9  0.258
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS       10  6 387 314 -0.197  6.961   11  0.076   11  0.072   11  0.039   12 0.5044   25  1.169   21 -0.089   11  0.166
RAMS        7  9 280 330  0.110  9.202   12 -0.013   12 -0.010   17 -0.082   13 0.4991   31  0.961   29 -0.459    7  0.295
RAIDERS     7  9 359 399  0.141  9.342   13 -0.019   13 -0.017   14 -0.023   14 0.4946    7  1.419    9  0.188   24 -0.234
LIONS       7  9 358 400  0.127  9.258   14 -0.024   14 -0.028   12  0.006   11 0.5055    8  1.378   12  0.159   18 -0.146
TEXANS      9  8 339 343 -0.138  7.992   15 -0.032   15 -0.040   15 -0.036   15 0.4915   29  1.027   25 -0.338    8  0.265
BILLS       8  8 379 359 -0.086  7.761   16 -0.056   16 -0.075   13  0.006   18 0.4804   12  1.326   13  0.086   17 -0.073
REDSKINS    9  8 406 414 -0.178  7.812   17 -0.059   17 -0.077   18 -0.093   16 0.4879   10  1.360   16  0.034   23 -0.220
COLTS       8  8 333 408 -0.219  7.421   18 -0.103   18 -0.120   27 -0.305   19 0.4803   16  1.310   23 -0.247   26 -0.363
BEARS       6 10 335 397  0.130  9.322   19 -0.112   19 -0.123   16 -0.076   17 0.4868   13  1.325   17  0.003   20 -0.155
FALCONS     8  8 339 345 -0.300  6.663   20 -0.179   20 -0.197   23 -0.248   20 0.4759   26  1.119   28 -0.438   16 -0.058
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES      7  9 377 430 -0.163  7.598   21 -0.195   21 -0.205   22 -0.241   21 0.4637    5  1.426   19 -0.022   28 -0.461
49ERS       5 11 238 387  0.116  9.611   22 -0.229   22 -0.234   28 -0.314   23 0.4615   32  0.957   32 -0.695   13  0.068
RAVENS      5 11 328 401  0.093  9.205   23 -0.247   23 -0.262   19 -0.141   24 0.4490   14  1.317   20 -0.073   22 -0.208
SAINTS      7  9 408 476 -0.267  7.094   24 -0.258   24 -0.278   24 -0.286   22 0.4620    2  1.584   11  0.170   32 -0.742
DOLPHINS    6 10 310 389 -0.197  7.453   25 -0.309   25 -0.328   25 -0.299   28 0.4289   22  1.197   27 -0.391   21 -0.208
GIANTS      6 10 420 442 -0.198  7.252   26 -0.311   26 -0.349   21 -0.184   25 0.4405    1  1.616    7  0.322   30 -0.690
CHARGERS    4 12 320 398  0.110  9.352   27 -0.347   27 -0.380   20 -0.146   26 0.4367   17  1.270   22 -0.142   19 -0.150
BUCCANEERS  6 10 342 417 -0.303  6.865   28 -0.365   28 -0.405   30 -0.352   27 0.4363   11  1.328   24 -0.269   27 -0.435
BROWNS      3 13 278 432  0.093  9.604   29 -0.452   29 -0.489   26 -0.302   29 0.4140   19  1.230   26 -0.352   25 -0.253
JAGUARS     5 11 376 448 -0.298  6.882   30 -0.464   31 -0.507   31 -0.355   31 0.4086    3  1.515   18 -0.003   31 -0.707
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COWBOYS     4 12 275 374 -0.123  7.968   31 -0.467   30 -0.507   29 -0.326   30 0.4090   30  0.969   31 -0.694   14  0.041
TITANS      3 13 299 423 -0.304  7.019   32 -0.677   32 -0.724   32 -0.555   32 0.3728   20  1.216   30 -0.622   29 -0.487

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRONCOS    15  4 422 340  0.243 11.343    2  0.708    2  0.666    6  0.378    2 0.6153   28  1.032   14  0.083    1  0.673
CHIEFS     12  6 455 314  0.216 10.324    5  0.441    5  0.402    2  0.520    5 0.5709   24  1.190    6  0.419    3  0.620
RAIDERS     7  9 359 399  0.141  9.342   13 -0.019   13 -0.017   14 -0.023   14 0.4946    7  1.419    9  0.188   24 -0.234
CHARGERS    4 12 320 398  0.110  9.352   27 -0.347   27 -0.380   20 -0.146   26 0.4367   17  1.270   22 -0.142   19 -0.150

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS      9  8 339 343 -0.138  7.992   15 -0.032   15 -0.040   15 -0.036   15 0.4915   29  1.027   25 -0.338    8  0.265
COLTS       8  8 333 408 -0.219  7.421   18 -0.103   18 -0.120   27 -0.305   19 0.4803   16  1.310   23 -0.247   26 -0.363
JAGUARS     5 11 376 448 -0.298  6.882   30 -0.464   31 -0.507   31 -0.355   31 0.4086    3  1.515   18 -0.003   31 -0.707
TITANS      3 13 299 423 -0.304  7.019   32 -0.677   32 -0.724   32 -0.555   32 0.3728   20  1.216   30 -0.622   29 -0.487

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BENGALS    12  5 435 297  0.213  9.614    4  0.502    4  0.462    4  0.399    4 0.5752   23  1.193    8  0.301    5  0.496
STEELERS   11  7 457 358  0.276 10.627    7  0.376    8  0.346    5  0.384   10 0.5589   15  1.311    4  0.442    6  0.325
RAVENS      5 11 328 401  0.093  9.205   23 -0.247   23 -0.262   19 -0.141   24 0.4490   14  1.317   20 -0.073   22 -0.208
BROWNS      3 13 278 432  0.093  9.604   29 -0.452   29 -0.489   26 -0.302   29 0.4140   19  1.230   26 -0.352   25 -0.253

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PATRIOTS   13  5 510 355  0.002  8.800    6  0.397    6  0.358    8  0.289    9 0.5599    9  1.368    5  0.427   12  0.150
JETS       10  6 387 314 -0.197  6.961   11  0.076   11  0.072   11  0.039   12 0.5044   25  1.169   21 -0.089   11  0.166
BILLS       8  8 379 359 -0.086  7.761   16 -0.056   16 -0.075   13  0.006   18 0.4804   12  1.326   13  0.086   17 -0.073
DOLPHINS    6 10 310 389 -0.197  7.453   25 -0.309   25 -0.328   25 -0.299   28 0.4289   22  1.197   27 -0.391   21 -0.208

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CARDINALS  14  4 530 382  0.191 10.073    3  0.640    3  0.600    7  0.337    3 0.6086    4  1.493    2  0.655   15  0.020
SEAHAWKS   11  7 457 317  0.261 10.415    8  0.364    9  0.321    1  0.547    8 0.5652   21  1.210    3  0.472    2  0.622
RAMS        7  9 280 330  0.110  9.202   12 -0.013   12 -0.010   17 -0.082   13 0.4991   31  0.961   29 -0.459    7  0.295
49ERS       5 11 238 387  0.116  9.611   22 -0.229   22 -0.234   28 -0.314   23 0.4615   32  0.957   32 -0.695   13  0.068

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS   17  2 590 371 -0.047  8.695    1  0.747    1  0.704    3  0.458    1 0.6164    6  1.422    1  0.672   10  0.244
FALCONS     8  8 339 345 -0.300  6.663   20 -0.179   20 -0.197   23 -0.248   20 0.4759   26  1.119   28 -0.438   16 -0.058
SAINTS      7  9 408 476 -0.267  7.094   24 -0.258   24 -0.278   24 -0.286   22 0.4620    2  1.584   11  0.170   32 -0.742
BUCCANEERS  6 10 342 417 -0.303  6.865   28 -0.365   28 -0.405   30 -0.352   27 0.4363   11  1.328   24 -0.269   27 -0.435

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
VIKINGS    11  6 374 312  0.180  9.811    9  0.349    7  0.355    9  0.271    6 0.5688   27  1.083   15  0.037    4  0.504
PACKERS    11  7 423 367  0.218 10.570   10  0.319   10  0.319   10  0.222    7 0.5665   18  1.239   10  0.185    9  0.258
LIONS       7  9 358 400  0.127  9.258   14 -0.024   14 -0.028   12  0.006   11 0.5055    8  1.378   12  0.159   18 -0.146
BEARS       6 10 335 397  0.130  9.322   19 -0.112   19 -0.123   16 -0.076   17 0.4868   13  1.325   17  0.003   20 -0.155

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
REDSKINS    9  8 406 414 -0.178  7.812   17 -0.059   17 -0.077   18 -0.093   16 0.4879   10  1.360   16  0.034   23 -0.220
EAGLES      7  9 377 430 -0.163  7.598   21 -0.195   21 -0.205   22 -0.241   21 0.4637    5  1.426   19 -0.022   28 -0.461
GIANTS      6 10 420 442 -0.198  7.252   26 -0.311   26 -0.349   21 -0.184   25 0.4405    1  1.616    7  0.322   30 -0.690
COWBOYS     4 12 275 374 -0.123  7.968   31 -0.467   30 -0.507   29 -0.326   30 0.4090   30  0.969   31 -0.694   14  0.041

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC WEST   38 31 0.551    1  0.261
NFC WEST   37 31 0.544    2  0.225
NFC NORTH  35 32 0.522    3  0.168
AFC NORTH  31 36 0.463    4  0.157
AFC EAST   37 29 0.561    5  0.046
NFC SOUTH  38 29 0.567    6 -0.229
NFC EAST   26 39 0.400    7 -0.335
AFC SOUTH  25 40 0.385    8 -0.510

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.129 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.017 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:05:17 2024
games through: Sun Feb  7 2016

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