Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         31 15 164 114  0.024 23.244    1  0.212    1  0.208    1  0.252    1 0.5434   19  1.025    5  0.207    3  0.297
JETS             31 17 167 118 -0.023 23.421    2  0.165    2  0.160    2  0.216    2 0.5334   20  1.024    6  0.170    5  0.262
MAPLE LEAFS      30 18 152 137  0.017 24.384    3  0.155    3  0.157   10  0.068    4 0.5306   14  1.081   13  0.091   15  0.046
STARS            29 17 148 115 -0.016 22.591    4  0.143    5  0.142    4  0.163    5 0.5296   25  0.966   15  0.050    4  0.276
OILERS           29 17 151 126 -0.016 22.734    5  0.142    4  0.143    9  0.100    3 0.5307   16  1.071   11  0.111    9  0.089
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   29 18 160 132  0.000 23.462    6  0.138    6  0.136    5  0.143    6 0.5286    8  1.152    3  0.253   16  0.033
WILD             28 19 140 134  0.023 24.012    7  0.119    7  0.123   11  0.053    7 0.5249   24  0.985   18 -0.038    8  0.144
HURRICANES       28 19 156 132  0.012 23.729    8  0.113    8  0.117    7  0.126    8 0.5234   12  1.094    7  0.164   10  0.088
AVALANCHE        28 20 160 150  0.011 24.300    9  0.094    9  0.103   12  0.046    9 0.5199    5  1.229    2  0.254   23 -0.163
PANTHERS         27 20 153 142  0.016 23.917   10  0.083   10  0.094   14  0.037   10 0.5194    9  1.147    8  0.141   22 -0.067
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        25 20 165 128  0.038 23.060   11  0.075   11  0.079    3  0.208   11 0.5182    4  1.230    1  0.418   18 -0.003
KINGS            25 19 129 110 -0.009 21.834   12  0.065   12  0.071    8  0.112   12 0.5149   31  0.878   23 -0.100    1  0.324
DEVILS           26 23 148 125  0.024 24.935   13  0.042   13  0.047    6  0.132   13 0.5086   29  0.906   19 -0.049    2  0.314
SENATORS         24 22 132 127  0.005 23.194   14  0.023   14  0.027   13  0.041   14 0.5062   26  0.939   24 -0.103    6  0.184
CANADIENS        23 23 142 155  0.005 23.287   15  0.003   15  0.003   18 -0.029   15 0.5015    7  1.187   10  0.126   25 -0.184
BLUES            23 25 138 143  0.007 24.317   16 -0.017   16 -0.021   15 -0.015   17 0.4951   22  1.005   20 -0.083   13  0.054
RANGERS          22 24 134 142  0.000 23.193   17 -0.021   18 -0.024   16 -0.017   18 0.4944   17  1.063   17 -0.017   20 -0.017
BRUINS           23 25 133 153  0.000 24.303   18 -0.022   17 -0.024   25 -0.095   16 0.4959   23  0.988   27 -0.183   19 -0.008
FLAMES           22 23 120 132 -0.033 22.124   19 -0.024   19 -0.026   19 -0.049   19 0.4924   30  0.891   30 -0.247    7  0.148
BLUE JACKETS     22 25 157 158 -0.018 23.358   20 -0.039   20 -0.044   17 -0.024   20 0.4913    1  1.254    4  0.217   30 -0.265
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLYERS           21 26 146 161 -0.005 23.649   21 -0.057   21 -0.063   22 -0.062   21 0.4884    6  1.193   12  0.100   27 -0.224
CANUCKS          20 25 129 143 -0.025 22.276   22 -0.067   23 -0.074   21 -0.055   23 0.4838   18  1.032   22 -0.092   21 -0.018
RED WINGS        21 25 131 150 -0.055 22.297   23 -0.069   22 -0.074   28 -0.127   24 0.4830   13  1.093   21 -0.090   24 -0.165
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 20 26 132 139  0.001 23.255   24 -0.070   24 -0.074   20 -0.052   22 0.4858   21  1.015   25 -0.109   17  0.004
KRAKEN           21 27 143 154 -0.020 23.919   25 -0.079   25 -0.083   26 -0.102   25 0.4821   10  1.137   16 -0.011   26 -0.193
PENGUINS         20 29 148 180  0.012 25.144   26 -0.101   26 -0.102   29 -0.162   26 0.4796    2  1.242   14  0.064   32 -0.387
DUCKS            18 28 111 145  0.028 23.928   27 -0.110   27 -0.109   30 -0.169   27 0.4766   32  0.853   32 -0.408   12  0.071
ISLANDERS        19 27 124 138 -0.044 22.479   28 -0.119   28 -0.118   27 -0.107   28 0.4754   27  0.929   31 -0.262   14  0.048
PREDATORS        16 29 115 139  0.059 23.842   29 -0.141   29 -0.138   23 -0.084   29 0.4724   28  0.924   29 -0.244   11  0.077
SABRES           17 29 142 159 -0.020 22.916   30 -0.163   30 -0.157   24 -0.095   30 0.4671    3  1.240    9  0.129   31 -0.318
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS       15 32 123 162 -0.017 23.611   31 -0.224   31 -0.215   31 -0.193   31 0.4553   11  1.119   26 -0.124   29 -0.262
SHARKS           14 35 125 175  0.013 25.265   32 -0.251   32 -0.247   32 -0.235   32 0.4490   15  1.078   28 -0.216   28 -0.254

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OILERS           29 17 151 126 -0.016 22.734    5  0.142    4  0.143    9  0.100    3 0.5307   16  1.071   11  0.111    9  0.089
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   29 18 160 132  0.000 23.462    6  0.138    6  0.136    5  0.143    6 0.5286    8  1.152    3  0.253   16  0.033
KINGS            25 19 129 110 -0.009 21.834   12  0.065   12  0.071    8  0.112   12 0.5149   31  0.878   23 -0.100    1  0.324
FLAMES           22 23 120 132 -0.033 22.124   19 -0.024   19 -0.026   19 -0.049   19 0.4924   30  0.891   30 -0.247    7  0.148
CANUCKS          20 25 129 143 -0.025 22.276   22 -0.067   23 -0.074   21 -0.055   23 0.4838   18  1.032   22 -0.092   21 -0.018
KRAKEN           21 27 143 154 -0.020 23.919   25 -0.079   25 -0.083   26 -0.102   25 0.4821   10  1.137   16 -0.011   26 -0.193
DUCKS            18 28 111 145  0.028 23.928   27 -0.110   27 -0.109   30 -0.169   27 0.4766   32  0.853   32 -0.408   12  0.071
SHARKS           14 35 125 175  0.013 25.265   32 -0.251   32 -0.247   32 -0.235   32 0.4490   15  1.078   28 -0.216   28 -0.254

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS             31 17 167 118 -0.023 23.421    2  0.165    2  0.160    2  0.216    2 0.5334   20  1.024    6  0.170    5  0.262
STARS            29 17 148 115 -0.016 22.591    4  0.143    5  0.142    4  0.163    5 0.5296   25  0.966   15  0.050    4  0.276
WILD             28 19 140 134  0.023 24.012    7  0.119    7  0.123   11  0.053    7 0.5249   24  0.985   18 -0.038    8  0.144
AVALANCHE        28 20 160 150  0.011 24.300    9  0.094    9  0.103   12  0.046    9 0.5199    5  1.229    2  0.254   23 -0.163
BLUES            23 25 138 143  0.007 24.317   16 -0.017   16 -0.021   15 -0.015   17 0.4951   22  1.005   20 -0.083   13  0.054
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 20 26 132 139  0.001 23.255   24 -0.070   24 -0.074   20 -0.052   22 0.4858   21  1.015   25 -0.109   17  0.004
PREDATORS        16 29 115 139  0.059 23.842   29 -0.141   29 -0.138   23 -0.084   29 0.4724   28  0.924   29 -0.244   11  0.077
BLACKHAWKS       15 32 123 162 -0.017 23.611   31 -0.224   31 -0.215   31 -0.193   31 0.4553   11  1.119   26 -0.124   29 -0.262

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         31 15 164 114  0.024 23.244    1  0.212    1  0.208    1  0.252    1 0.5434   19  1.025    5  0.207    3  0.297
HURRICANES       28 19 156 132  0.012 23.729    8  0.113    8  0.117    7  0.126    8 0.5234   12  1.094    7  0.164   10  0.088
DEVILS           26 23 148 125  0.024 24.935   13  0.042   13  0.047    6  0.132   13 0.5086   29  0.906   19 -0.049    2  0.314
RANGERS          22 24 134 142  0.000 23.193   17 -0.021   18 -0.024   16 -0.017   18 0.4944   17  1.063   17 -0.017   20 -0.017
BLUE JACKETS     22 25 157 158 -0.018 23.358   20 -0.039   20 -0.044   17 -0.024   20 0.4913    1  1.254    4  0.217   30 -0.265
FLYERS           21 26 146 161 -0.005 23.649   21 -0.057   21 -0.063   22 -0.062   21 0.4884    6  1.193   12  0.100   27 -0.224
PENGUINS         20 29 148 180  0.012 25.144   26 -0.101   26 -0.102   29 -0.162   26 0.4796    2  1.242   14  0.064   32 -0.387
ISLANDERS        19 27 124 138 -0.044 22.479   28 -0.119   28 -0.118   27 -0.107   28 0.4754   27  0.929   31 -0.262   14  0.048

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS      30 18 152 137  0.017 24.384    3  0.155    3  0.157   10  0.068    4 0.5306   14  1.081   13  0.091   15  0.046
PANTHERS         27 20 153 142  0.016 23.917   10  0.083   10  0.094   14  0.037   10 0.5194    9  1.147    8  0.141   22 -0.067
LIGHTNING        25 20 165 128  0.038 23.060   11  0.075   11  0.079    3  0.208   11 0.5182    4  1.230    1  0.418   18 -0.003
SENATORS         24 22 132 127  0.005 23.194   14  0.023   14  0.027   13  0.041   14 0.5062   26  0.939   24 -0.103    6  0.184
CANADIENS        23 23 142 155  0.005 23.287   15  0.003   15  0.003   18 -0.029   15 0.5015    7  1.187   10  0.126   25 -0.184
BRUINS           23 25 133 153  0.000 24.303   18 -0.022   17 -0.024   25 -0.095   16 0.4959   23  0.988   27 -0.183   19 -0.008
RED WINGS        21 25 131 150 -0.055 22.297   23 -0.069   22 -0.074   28 -0.127   24 0.4830   13  1.093   21 -0.090   24 -0.165
SABRES           17 29 142 159 -0.020 22.916   30 -0.163   30 -0.157   24 -0.095   30 0.4671    3  1.240    9  0.129   31 -0.318

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 189 188 0.501    1  0.029
CENTRAL DIVISION      190 185 0.507    2  0.028
ATLANTIC DIVISION     190 182 0.511    3  0.001
PACIFIC DIVISION      178 192 0.481    4 -0.056

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.078 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Jan 21 05:30:14 2025
games through: Mon Jan 20 2025

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.