Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS             16  3 80 46  0.073  9.766    1  0.426    1  0.450    1  0.398    1 0.5802    9  1.187    2  0.546    8  0.250 P
HURRICANES       14  4 72 42 -0.018  8.670    2  0.306    2  0.316    2  0.354    2 0.5601   13  1.091    5  0.382    4  0.326 P
CAPITALS         13  5 78 50  0.102  9.501    3  0.284    3  0.297    3  0.333    3 0.5509    4  1.304    1  0.634   14  0.031 P
PANTHERS         12  7 69 62  0.129 10.503    4  0.217    4  0.226   10  0.148    6 0.5352    3  1.309    4  0.456   23 -0.160 P
RANGERS          12  5 61 41 -0.023  8.184    5  0.216    5  0.221    5  0.284    4 0.5368   18  1.018    9  0.225    3  0.343 P
WILD             12  6 61 43  0.041  9.165    6  0.204    6  0.208    6  0.266    7 0.5349   24  0.941   14  0.117    1  0.414 P
LIGHTNING        10  7 60 48  0.224  9.868    7  0.188    7  0.197    4  0.297    5 0.5356   12  1.129    6  0.371    9  0.222 P
STARS            12  6 62 42 -0.066  8.348    8  0.164    8  0.166    8  0.220    8 0.5260   22  0.995   13  0.134    5  0.306 P
MAPLE LEAFS      12  8 61 50  0.025 10.180    9  0.138    9  0.139   11  0.146    9 0.5200   29  0.883   18 -0.067    2  0.358 P
DEVILS           12  9 72 56  0.098 11.208   10  0.131   10  0.132    7  0.251   10 0.5176   15  1.053    8  0.232    7  0.269 P
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   11  8 72 60  0.044  9.823   11  0.117   11  0.117    9  0.158   11 0.5175    2  1.312    3  0.470   22 -0.154 P
AVALANCHE        10  9 64 70 -0.071  9.226   12  0.007   12  0.007   19 -0.089   13 0.4936    1  1.409    7  0.358   32 -0.535 P
FLAMES           10  9 51 52 -0.075  9.118   13  0.003   13  0.002   16 -0.031   12 0.4943   32  0.793   28 -0.340    6  0.278 P
KRAKEN           10 10 58 55 -0.028 10.018   14 -0.005   14 -0.007   18 -0.053   14 0.4927   26  0.921   23 -0.223   12  0.118 P
OILERS           10 10 55 62 -0.060  9.863   15 -0.015   15 -0.018   22 -0.141   15 0.4880   23  0.984   25 -0.241   16 -0.042 P
CANUCKS           9  9 57 59 -0.073  8.636   16 -0.024   16 -0.030   15 -0.017   16 0.4856    7  1.238   10  0.196   28 -0.230 P
KINGS            10 10 61 56 -0.089  9.400   17 -0.034   18 -0.040   12  0.043   19 0.4818   21  0.999   17 -0.039   11  0.124 P
SABRES            9 10 62 61 -0.022  9.501   18 -0.037   17 -0.037   14 -0.003   20 0.4813    8  1.219   12  0.186   27 -0.192 P
SENATORS          8 10 57 58  0.027  9.365   19 -0.051   19 -0.050   13  0.003   17 0.4854   11  1.159   15  0.115   20 -0.109 P
BLUES             8 12 49 69  0.071 11.001   20 -0.084   20 -0.076   25 -0.170   18 0.4819   19  1.009   24 -0.240   19 -0.100 P
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DUCKS             8 10 46 54 -0.064  8.837   21 -0.097   21 -0.091   21 -0.129   24 0.4696   28  0.891   26 -0.333   13  0.075 P
FLYERS            8 12 57 71  0.024 10.585   22 -0.108   22 -0.101   23 -0.153   21 0.4783   14  1.088   20 -0.129   25 -0.177 P
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB  7 11 49 62  0.000  9.420   23 -0.122   23 -0.116   27 -0.190   23 0.4700   16  1.051   22 -0.210   24 -0.170 P
BLUE JACKETS      7 11 58 62 -0.012  9.129   24 -0.139   25 -0.136   17 -0.050   25 0.4684    6  1.258   11  0.191   29 -0.290 P
BRUINS            8 12 48 69 -0.046 10.060   25 -0.147   24 -0.134   29 -0.239   22 0.4718   25  0.925   30 -0.405   18 -0.073 P
RED WINGS         7 11 46 60 -0.037  9.081   26 -0.153   26 -0.140   24 -0.157   26 0.4626   17  1.042   21 -0.188   21 -0.127 P
ISLANDERS         7 12 50 57 -0.024  9.615   27 -0.173   27 -0.159   20 -0.125   27 0.4623   31  0.828   29 -0.398   10  0.147 P
CANADIENS         7 12 54 71 -0.028  9.642   28 -0.185   28 -0.167   26 -0.171   29 0.4614    5  1.264   16  0.077   31 -0.419 P
PENGUINS          7 14 57 83  0.052 11.481   29 -0.190   29 -0.172   30 -0.243   28 0.4614   10  1.164   19 -0.125   30 -0.361 P
BLACKHAWKS        6 13 45 59 -0.068  9.409   30 -0.257   30 -0.245   28 -0.236   30 0.4450   27  0.911   31 -0.418   17 -0.055 P
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SHARKS            6 15 52 76 -0.030 10.789   31 -0.288   31 -0.277   31 -0.262   32 0.4403   20  1.007   27 -0.334   26 -0.190 P
PREDATORS         6 14 46 64 -0.097  9.670   32 -0.294   32 -0.285   32 -0.263   31 0.4427   30  0.852   32 -0.509   15 -0.017 P

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   11  8 72 60  0.044  9.823   11  0.117   11  0.117    9  0.158   11 0.5175    2  1.312    3  0.470   22 -0.154 P
FLAMES           10  9 51 52 -0.075  9.118   13  0.003   13  0.002   16 -0.031   12 0.4943   32  0.793   28 -0.340    6  0.278 P
KRAKEN           10 10 58 55 -0.028 10.018   14 -0.005   14 -0.007   18 -0.053   14 0.4927   26  0.921   23 -0.223   12  0.118 P
OILERS           10 10 55 62 -0.060  9.863   15 -0.015   15 -0.018   22 -0.141   15 0.4880   23  0.984   25 -0.241   16 -0.042 P
CANUCKS           9  9 57 59 -0.073  8.636   16 -0.024   16 -0.030   15 -0.017   16 0.4856    7  1.238   10  0.196   28 -0.230 P
KINGS            10 10 61 56 -0.089  9.400   17 -0.034   18 -0.040   12  0.043   19 0.4818   21  0.999   17 -0.039   11  0.124 P
DUCKS             8 10 46 54 -0.064  8.837   21 -0.097   21 -0.091   21 -0.129   24 0.4696   28  0.891   26 -0.333   13  0.075 P
SHARKS            6 15 52 76 -0.030 10.789   31 -0.288   31 -0.277   31 -0.262   32 0.4403   20  1.007   27 -0.334   26 -0.190 P

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS             16  3 80 46  0.073  9.766    1  0.426    1  0.450    1  0.398    1 0.5802    9  1.187    2  0.546    8  0.250 P
WILD             12  6 61 43  0.041  9.165    6  0.204    6  0.208    6  0.266    7 0.5349   24  0.941   14  0.117    1  0.414 P
STARS            12  6 62 42 -0.066  8.348    8  0.164    8  0.166    8  0.220    8 0.5260   22  0.995   13  0.134    5  0.306 P
AVALANCHE        10  9 64 70 -0.071  9.226   12  0.007   12  0.007   19 -0.089   13 0.4936    1  1.409    7  0.358   32 -0.535 P
BLUES             8 12 49 69  0.071 11.001   20 -0.084   20 -0.076   25 -0.170   18 0.4819   19  1.009   24 -0.240   19 -0.100 P
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB  7 11 49 62  0.000  9.420   23 -0.122   23 -0.116   27 -0.190   23 0.4700   16  1.051   22 -0.210   24 -0.170 P
BLACKHAWKS        6 13 45 59 -0.068  9.409   30 -0.257   30 -0.245   28 -0.236   30 0.4450   27  0.911   31 -0.418   17 -0.055 P
PREDATORS         6 14 46 64 -0.097  9.670   32 -0.294   32 -0.285   32 -0.263   31 0.4427   30  0.852   32 -0.509   15 -0.017 P

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HURRICANES       14  4 72 42 -0.018  8.670    2  0.306    2  0.316    2  0.354    2 0.5601   13  1.091    5  0.382    4  0.326 P
CAPITALS         13  5 78 50  0.102  9.501    3  0.284    3  0.297    3  0.333    3 0.5509    4  1.304    1  0.634   14  0.031 P
RANGERS          12  5 61 41 -0.023  8.184    5  0.216    5  0.221    5  0.284    4 0.5368   18  1.018    9  0.225    3  0.343 P
DEVILS           12  9 72 56  0.098 11.208   10  0.131   10  0.132    7  0.251   10 0.5176   15  1.053    8  0.232    7  0.269 P
FLYERS            8 12 57 71  0.024 10.585   22 -0.108   22 -0.101   23 -0.153   21 0.4783   14  1.088   20 -0.129   25 -0.177 P
BLUE JACKETS      7 11 58 62 -0.012  9.129   24 -0.139   25 -0.136   17 -0.050   25 0.4684    6  1.258   11  0.191   29 -0.290 P
ISLANDERS         7 12 50 57 -0.024  9.615   27 -0.173   27 -0.159   20 -0.125   27 0.4623   31  0.828   29 -0.398   10  0.147 P
PENGUINS          7 14 57 83  0.052 11.481   29 -0.190   29 -0.172   30 -0.243   28 0.4614   10  1.164   19 -0.125   30 -0.361 P

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS         12  7 69 62  0.129 10.503    4  0.217    4  0.226   10  0.148    6 0.5352    3  1.309    4  0.456   23 -0.160 P
LIGHTNING        10  7 60 48  0.224  9.868    7  0.188    7  0.197    4  0.297    5 0.5356   12  1.129    6  0.371    9  0.222 P
MAPLE LEAFS      12  8 61 50  0.025 10.180    9  0.138    9  0.139   11  0.146    9 0.5200   29  0.883   18 -0.067    2  0.358 P
SABRES            9 10 62 61 -0.022  9.501   18 -0.037   17 -0.037   14 -0.003   20 0.4813    8  1.219   12  0.186   27 -0.192 P
SENATORS          8 10 57 58  0.027  9.365   19 -0.051   19 -0.050   13  0.003   17 0.4854   11  1.159   15  0.115   20 -0.109 P
BRUINS            8 12 48 69 -0.046 10.060   25 -0.147   24 -0.134   29 -0.239   22 0.4718   25  0.925   30 -0.405   18 -0.073 P
RED WINGS         7 11 46 60 -0.037  9.081   26 -0.153   26 -0.140   24 -0.157   26 0.4626   17  1.042   21 -0.188   21 -0.127 P
CANADIENS         7 12 54 71 -0.028  9.642   28 -0.185   28 -0.167   26 -0.171   29 0.4614    5  1.264   16  0.077   31 -0.419 P

DIVISION               W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 80 72 0.526    1  0.139
ATLANTIC DIVISION     73 77 0.487    2  0.004
CENTRAL DIVISION      77 74 0.510    3 -0.019
PACIFIC DIVISION      74 81 0.477    4 -0.091

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.075 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Nov 21 05:30:12 2024
games through: Wed Nov 20 2024

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