Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED WINGS    66 28 10 319 231  0.055 53.338    1  0.379    1  0.367    1  0.353    1 0.5494   15  0.945    2  0.377    2  0.328
AVALANCHE    55 39  8 263 224  0.076 53.403    2  0.221    2  0.191    5  0.186    2 0.5264   28  0.751   16  0.001    1  0.372
SHARKS       51 34  8 279 227  0.030 46.978    3  0.207    3  0.179    3  0.191    3 0.5250    6  1.057    3  0.346   14  0.036
BLUES        48 36  7 248 204  0.054 46.832    4  0.178    4  0.154    2  0.197    4 0.5218   23  0.829   11  0.094    3  0.300
MAPLE LEAFS  53 38 10 289 251 -0.013 49.425    5  0.127    5  0.116    7  0.127    6 0.5162    8  0.964    5  0.173   11  0.081
CANUCKS      44 36  7 266 228  0.057 44.872    6  0.126    6  0.114    4  0.189    5 0.5168    2  1.127    1  0.430   20 -0.051
BLACKHAWKS   41 32 13 216 216  0.036 43.890    7  0.118    7  0.113   15  0.036    7 0.5156   18  0.906   13  0.016   12  0.056
KINGS        43 35 10 225 204  0.038 44.879    8  0.107    8  0.101    9  0.107    8 0.5146   24  0.828   15  0.002    6  0.212
OILERS       38 31 12 205 181  0.022 40.751    9  0.093    9  0.088    8  0.118    9 0.5123   26  0.781   18 -0.036    5  0.273
COYOTES      41 37  8 233 221  0.036 43.825   10  0.067   10  0.066   12  0.072   11 0.5086   12  0.958   10  0.111   15  0.034
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ISLANDERS    45 36  8 260 242 -0.025 43.234   11  0.062   11  0.062   14  0.039   10 0.5097    5  1.092    4  0.237   22 -0.159
SENATORS     45 38  9 263 216 -0.014 44.911   12  0.055   12  0.049    6  0.173   13 0.5075   17  0.917    6  0.166    8  0.180
FLYERS       42 34 10 231 201 -0.030 41.530   13  0.048   13  0.047   10  0.079   14 0.5074   22  0.856   14  0.005    9  0.154
STARS        36 33 13 215 213  0.019 41.324   14  0.044   14  0.044   16  0.020   16 0.5061   14  0.953   12  0.054   17 -0.013
BRUINS       44 37  6 250 219 -0.044 41.571   15  0.037   16  0.035   11  0.073   17 0.5052   10  0.961    9  0.116   16  0.030
DEVILS       43 36  9 216 196 -0.037 42.317   16  0.035   17  0.035   13  0.046   15 0.5065   29  0.700   25 -0.191    4  0.283
HURRICANES   48 41 16 264 260 -0.009 51.832   17  0.031   15  0.039   18 -0.003   12 0.5075   25  0.808   23 -0.129   10  0.123
CANADIENS    41 40 12 233 244 -0.038 44.870   18 -0.006   18 -0.019   19 -0.051   18 0.4974   19  0.903   20 -0.073   18 -0.028
SABRES       35 35 11 212 198 -0.031 39.209   19 -0.013   19 -0.029   17  0.011   19 0.4967   20  0.893   17 -0.023   13  0.045
CAPITALS     36 35 11 228 240 -0.059 38.964   20 -0.021   20 -0.036   22 -0.089   20 0.4953    4  1.112    8  0.133   26 -0.310
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLAMES       31 38 12 200 220  0.020 41.039   21 -0.036   21 -0.054   20 -0.077   21 0.4912   13  0.954   19 -0.042   21 -0.112
RANGERS      36 42  4 227 258 -0.042 39.703   22 -0.080   22 -0.094   25 -0.188   22 0.4871    1  1.199    7  0.143   29 -0.519
PREDATORS    28 41 13 196 230  0.029 41.931   23 -0.101   23 -0.113   23 -0.128   23 0.4835   11  0.958   21 -0.089   23 -0.167
DUCKS        29 44  8 173 194  0.015 40.885   24 -0.139   24 -0.146   21 -0.081   24 0.4791   30  0.664   28 -0.354    7  0.192
WILD         26 44 12 195 238  0.030 41.978   25 -0.162   25 -0.163   24 -0.141   25 0.4764    9  0.962   22 -0.098   24 -0.184
PENGUINS     28 45  8 197 246 -0.041 39.299   26 -0.206   26 -0.208   27 -0.243   26 0.4704    7  1.001   24 -0.154   28 -0.331
LIGHTNING    27 44 11 178 219 -0.055 39.273   27 -0.211   27 -0.214   26 -0.208   27 0.4696   27  0.770   29 -0.375   19 -0.042
BLUE JACKETS 22 52  7 161 252  0.032 41.826   28 -0.276   28 -0.299   29 -0.343   28 0.4587   21  0.862   30 -0.411   25 -0.275
PANTHERS     22 49 10 178 245 -0.059 38.883   29 -0.295   29 -0.322   28 -0.322   29 0.4542   16  0.924   27 -0.321   27 -0.323
THRASHERS    18 52 11 185 287 -0.051 39.261   30 -0.390   30 -0.398   30 -0.448   30 0.4443    3  1.118   26 -0.219   30 -0.678
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SHARKS       51 34  8 279 227  0.030 46.978    3  0.207    3  0.179    3  0.191    3 0.5250    6  1.057    3  0.346   14  0.036
KINGS        43 35 10 225 204  0.038 44.879    8  0.107    8  0.101    9  0.107    8 0.5146   24  0.828   15  0.002    6  0.212
COYOTES      41 37  8 233 221  0.036 43.825   10  0.067   10  0.066   12  0.072   11 0.5086   12  0.958   10  0.111   15  0.034
STARS        36 33 13 215 213  0.019 41.324   14  0.044   14  0.044   16  0.020   16 0.5061   14  0.953   12  0.054   17 -0.013
DUCKS        29 44  8 173 194  0.015 40.885   24 -0.139   24 -0.146   21 -0.081   24 0.4791   30  0.664   28 -0.354    7  0.192

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE    55 39  8 263 224  0.076 53.403    2  0.221    2  0.191    5  0.186    2 0.5264   28  0.751   16  0.001    1  0.372
CANUCKS      44 36  7 266 228  0.057 44.872    6  0.126    6  0.114    4  0.189    5 0.5168    2  1.127    1  0.430   20 -0.051
OILERS       38 31 12 205 181  0.022 40.751    9  0.093    9  0.088    8  0.118    9 0.5123   26  0.781   18 -0.036    5  0.273
FLAMES       31 38 12 200 220  0.020 41.039   21 -0.036   21 -0.054   20 -0.077   21 0.4912   13  0.954   19 -0.042   21 -0.112
WILD         26 44 12 195 238  0.030 41.978   25 -0.162   25 -0.163   24 -0.141   25 0.4764    9  0.962   22 -0.098   24 -0.184

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED WINGS    66 28 10 319 231  0.055 53.338    1  0.379    1  0.367    1  0.353    1 0.5494   15  0.945    2  0.377    2  0.328
BLUES        48 36  7 248 204  0.054 46.832    4  0.178    4  0.154    2  0.197    4 0.5218   23  0.829   11  0.094    3  0.300
BLACKHAWKS   41 32 13 216 216  0.036 43.890    7  0.118    7  0.113   15  0.036    7 0.5156   18  0.906   13  0.016   12  0.056
PREDATORS    28 41 13 196 230  0.029 41.931   23 -0.101   23 -0.113   23 -0.128   23 0.4835   11  0.958   21 -0.089   23 -0.167
BLUE JACKETS 22 52  7 161 252  0.032 41.826   28 -0.276   28 -0.299   29 -0.343   28 0.4587   21  0.862   30 -0.411   25 -0.275

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS  53 38 10 289 251 -0.013 49.425    5  0.127    5  0.116    7  0.127    6 0.5162    8  0.964    5  0.173   11  0.081
SENATORS     45 38  9 263 216 -0.014 44.911   12  0.055   12  0.049    6  0.173   13 0.5075   17  0.917    6  0.166    8  0.180
BRUINS       44 37  6 250 219 -0.044 41.571   15  0.037   16  0.035   11  0.073   17 0.5052   10  0.961    9  0.116   16  0.030
CANADIENS    41 40 12 233 244 -0.038 44.870   18 -0.006   18 -0.019   19 -0.051   18 0.4974   19  0.903   20 -0.073   18 -0.028
SABRES       35 35 11 212 198 -0.031 39.209   19 -0.013   19 -0.029   17  0.011   19 0.4967   20  0.893   17 -0.023   13  0.045

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ISLANDERS    45 36  8 260 242 -0.025 43.234   11  0.062   11  0.062   14  0.039   10 0.5097    5  1.092    4  0.237   22 -0.159
FLYERS       42 34 10 231 201 -0.030 41.530   13  0.048   13  0.047   10  0.079   14 0.5074   22  0.856   14  0.005    9  0.154
DEVILS       43 36  9 216 196 -0.037 42.317   16  0.035   17  0.035   13  0.046   15 0.5065   29  0.700   25 -0.191    4  0.283
RANGERS      36 42  4 227 258 -0.042 39.703   22 -0.080   22 -0.094   25 -0.188   22 0.4871    1  1.199    7  0.143   29 -0.519
PENGUINS     28 45  8 197 246 -0.041 39.299   26 -0.206   26 -0.208   27 -0.243   26 0.4704    7  1.001   24 -0.154   28 -0.331

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HURRICANES   48 41 16 264 260 -0.009 51.832   17  0.031   15  0.039   18 -0.003   12 0.5075   25  0.808   23 -0.129   10  0.123
CAPITALS     36 35 11 228 240 -0.059 38.964   20 -0.021   20 -0.036   22 -0.089   20 0.4953    4  1.112    8  0.133   26 -0.310
LIGHTNING    27 44 11 178 219 -0.055 39.273   27 -0.211   27 -0.214   26 -0.208   27 0.4696   27  0.770   29 -0.375   19 -0.042
PANTHERS     22 49 10 178 245 -0.059 38.883   29 -0.295   29 -0.322   28 -0.322   29 0.4542   16  0.924   27 -0.321   27 -0.323
THRASHERS    18 52 11 185 287 -0.051 39.261   30 -0.390   30 -0.398   30 -0.448   30 0.4443    3  1.118   26 -0.219   30 -0.678

DIVISION             W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHEAST DIVISION 218 188  48 0.533    1  0.086
PACIFIC DIVISION   200 183  47 0.520    2  0.081
NORTHWEST DIVISION 194 188  51 0.507    3  0.072
CENTRAL DIVISION   205 189  50 0.518    4  0.028
ATLANTIC DIVISION  194 193  39 0.501    5 -0.066
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 151 221  59 0.419    6 -0.272

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.128 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:43:57 2020
games through: Thu Jun 13 2002

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