Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY      62 35  8 305 235  0.002 52.234    1  0.251    1  0.230    3  0.214    1 0.5309   17  0.912    5  0.233    6  0.196
DETROIT        54 29 11 279 209 -0.029 45.597    2  0.231    2  0.203    2  0.218    2 0.5304   13  0.964    2  0.295   11  0.141
TORONTO        51 34 10 269 232  0.043 48.817    3  0.212    3  0.181    4  0.195    3 0.5243   10  0.975    3  0.285   12  0.106
PHILADELPHIA   51 34 15 279 229  0.025 50.648    4  0.187    5  0.156    5  0.191    5 0.5226   18  0.890    8  0.185    5  0.197
SAN JOSE       53 34 12 257 215 -0.009 48.933    5  0.186    4  0.157    6  0.163    4 0.5232   23  0.789   12  0.048    3  0.278
CALGARY        57 44  7 260 229  0.061 56.388    6  0.177    6  0.148    9  0.151    6 0.5209   29  0.678   17 -0.076    2  0.379
OTTAWA         46 33 10 273 203  0.022 44.834    7  0.156    7  0.132    1  0.272    7 0.5197   11  0.972    1  0.358    9  0.186
BOSTON         44 30 15 223 207  0.010 44.805    8  0.139    8  0.131   12  0.055    8 0.5197   24  0.764   19 -0.085    7  0.195
VANCOUVER      46 33 10 251 213  0.015 44.817    9  0.134    9  0.127    7  0.155    9 0.5192   12  0.966    4  0.234   14  0.076
NEW JERSEY     44 31 12 222 178 -0.008 42.955   10  0.118   11  0.115    8  0.153   11 0.5164   30  0.659   20 -0.094    1  0.400
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COLORADO       46 34 13 262 222  0.012 46.788   11  0.118   10  0.116   10  0.124   10 0.5174   14  0.954    6  0.189   15  0.058
DALLAS         42 32 13 204 194 -0.005 43.313   12  0.075   12  0.087   15  0.027   12 0.5132   26  0.714   24 -0.165    4  0.218
MONTREAL       45 41  7 232 220  0.027 47.438   13  0.039   13  0.049   13  0.048   13 0.5085   22  0.791   16 -0.064   10  0.161
ST LOUIS       40 36 11 200 210 -0.008 43.406   14  0.024   14  0.030   20 -0.086   14 0.5048   25  0.738   28 -0.254   13  0.082
EDMONTON       36 34 12 221 208  0.006 41.189   15  0.024   15  0.024   14  0.036   15 0.5036    9  0.986    9  0.139   19 -0.066
NASHVILLE      40 37 11 225 229 -0.013 43.665   16  0.014   16  0.012   19 -0.049   16 0.5033   16  0.933   15 -0.007   21 -0.091
N.Y. ISLANDERS 39 37 11 242 222 -0.004 43.286   17  0.013   17  0.011   11  0.061   17 0.5025    6  1.006    7  0.187   18 -0.065
BUFFALO        37 38  7 220 221  0.004 41.183   18 -0.002   18 -0.010   16 -0.014   18 0.4984    5  1.022   10  0.130   23 -0.158
MINNESOTA      30 32 20 188 183 -0.008 40.797   19 -0.009   19 -0.022   17 -0.016   19 0.4964   27  0.702   26 -0.219    8  0.187
ATLANTA        33 41  8 214 243 -0.027 40.457   20 -0.089   20 -0.104   23 -0.157   20 0.4854    2  1.078   11  0.055   27 -0.368
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LOS ANGELES    28 38 16 205 217 -0.020 40.442   21 -0.099   21 -0.114   18 -0.044   21 0.4836   15  0.951   14  0.019   22 -0.106
FLORIDA        28 39 15 188 221 -0.024 40.496   22 -0.119   22 -0.129   22 -0.141   22 0.4816   20  0.846   25 -0.196   20 -0.087
CAROLINA       28 40 14 172 209 -0.024 40.550   23 -0.129   23 -0.136   25 -0.166   23 0.4799   28  0.691   30 -0.380   16  0.049
ANAHEIM        29 43 10 184 213 -0.015 40.725   24 -0.155   24 -0.160   21 -0.134   24 0.4780   21  0.812   27 -0.224   17 -0.043
PHOENIX        22 42 18 188 245 -0.010 40.992   25 -0.208   25 -0.210   26 -0.219   25 0.4696    8  0.988   21 -0.114   25 -0.323
N.Y. RANGERS   27 48  7 206 250 -0.009 41.033   26 -0.218   26 -0.227   24 -0.165   26 0.4683    3  1.064   13  0.029   26 -0.360
COLUMBUS       25 49  8 177 238 -0.018 40.857   27 -0.243   27 -0.263   27 -0.263   27 0.4637   19  0.887   29 -0.272   24 -0.253
WASHINGTON     23 49 10 186 253 -0.018 40.929   28 -0.253   28 -0.278   28 -0.280   28 0.4599    7  1.002   23 -0.159   28 -0.401
PITTSBURGH     23 51  8 190 303 -0.004 41.581   29 -0.266   29 -0.290   30 -0.427   29 0.4576    1  1.186   18 -0.081   30 -0.772
CHICAGO        20 51 11 188 259 -0.024 40.705   30 -0.307   30 -0.338   29 -0.282   30 0.4530    4  1.039   22 -0.117   29 -0.447
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN JOSE       53 34 12 257 215 -0.009 48.933    5  0.186    4  0.157    6  0.163    4 0.5232   23  0.789   12  0.048    3  0.278
DALLAS         42 32 13 204 194 -0.005 43.313   12  0.075   12  0.087   15  0.027   12 0.5132   26  0.714   24 -0.165    4  0.218
LOS ANGELES    28 38 16 205 217 -0.020 40.442   21 -0.099   21 -0.114   18 -0.044   21 0.4836   15  0.951   14  0.019   22 -0.106
ANAHEIM        29 43 10 184 213 -0.015 40.725   24 -0.155   24 -0.160   21 -0.134   24 0.4780   21  0.812   27 -0.224   17 -0.043
PHOENIX        22 42 18 188 245 -0.010 40.992   25 -0.208   25 -0.210   26 -0.219   25 0.4696    8  0.988   21 -0.114   25 -0.323

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CALGARY        57 44  7 260 229  0.061 56.388    6  0.177    6  0.148    9  0.151    6 0.5209   29  0.678   17 -0.076    2  0.379
VANCOUVER      46 33 10 251 213  0.015 44.817    9  0.134    9  0.127    7  0.155    9 0.5192   12  0.966    4  0.234   14  0.076
COLORADO       46 34 13 262 222  0.012 46.788   11  0.118   10  0.116   10  0.124   10 0.5174   14  0.954    6  0.189   15  0.058
EDMONTON       36 34 12 221 208  0.006 41.189   15  0.024   15  0.024   14  0.036   15 0.5036    9  0.986    9  0.139   19 -0.066
MINNESOTA      30 32 20 188 183 -0.008 40.797   19 -0.009   19 -0.022   17 -0.016   19 0.4964   27  0.702   26 -0.219    8  0.187

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        54 29 11 279 209 -0.029 45.597    2  0.231    2  0.203    2  0.218    2 0.5304   13  0.964    2  0.295   11  0.141
ST LOUIS       40 36 11 200 210 -0.008 43.406   14  0.024   14  0.030   20 -0.086   14 0.5048   25  0.738   28 -0.254   13  0.082
NASHVILLE      40 37 11 225 229 -0.013 43.665   16  0.014   16  0.012   19 -0.049   16 0.5033   16  0.933   15 -0.007   21 -0.091
COLUMBUS       25 49  8 177 238 -0.018 40.857   27 -0.243   27 -0.263   27 -0.263   27 0.4637   19  0.887   29 -0.272   24 -0.253
CHICAGO        20 51 11 188 259 -0.024 40.705   30 -0.307   30 -0.338   29 -0.282   30 0.4530    4  1.039   22 -0.117   29 -0.447

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TORONTO        51 34 10 269 232  0.043 48.817    3  0.212    3  0.181    4  0.195    3 0.5243   10  0.975    3  0.285   12  0.106
OTTAWA         46 33 10 273 203  0.022 44.834    7  0.156    7  0.132    1  0.272    7 0.5197   11  0.972    1  0.358    9  0.186
BOSTON         44 30 15 223 207  0.010 44.805    8  0.139    8  0.131   12  0.055    8 0.5197   24  0.764   19 -0.085    7  0.195
MONTREAL       45 41  7 232 220  0.027 47.438   13  0.039   13  0.049   13  0.048   13 0.5085   22  0.791   16 -0.064   10  0.161
BUFFALO        37 38  7 220 221  0.004 41.183   18 -0.002   18 -0.010   16 -0.014   18 0.4984    5  1.022   10  0.130   23 -0.158

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA   51 34 15 279 229  0.025 50.648    4  0.187    5  0.156    5  0.191    5 0.5226   18  0.890    8  0.185    5  0.197
NEW JERSEY     44 31 12 222 178 -0.008 42.955   10  0.118   11  0.115    8  0.153   11 0.5164   30  0.659   20 -0.094    1  0.400
N.Y. ISLANDERS 39 37 11 242 222 -0.004 43.286   17  0.013   17  0.011   11  0.061   17 0.5025    6  1.006    7  0.187   18 -0.065
N.Y. RANGERS   27 48  7 206 250 -0.009 41.033   26 -0.218   26 -0.227   24 -0.165   26 0.4683    3  1.064   13  0.029   26 -0.360
PITTSBURGH     23 51  8 190 303 -0.004 41.581   29 -0.266   29 -0.290   30 -0.427   29 0.4576    1  1.186   18 -0.081   30 -0.772

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY      62 35  8 305 235  0.002 52.234    1  0.251    1  0.230    3  0.214    1 0.5309   17  0.912    5  0.233    6  0.196
ATLANTA        33 41  8 214 243 -0.027 40.457   20 -0.089   20 -0.104   23 -0.157   20 0.4854    2  1.078   11  0.055   27 -0.368
FLORIDA        28 39 15 188 221 -0.024 40.496   22 -0.119   22 -0.129   22 -0.141   22 0.4816   20  0.846   25 -0.196   20 -0.087
CAROLINA       28 40 14 172 209 -0.024 40.550   23 -0.129   23 -0.136   25 -0.166   23 0.4799   28  0.691   30 -0.380   16  0.049
WASHINGTON     23 49 10 186 253 -0.018 40.929   28 -0.253   28 -0.278   28 -0.280   28 0.4599    7  1.002   23 -0.159   28 -0.401

DIVISION             W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHEAST DIVISION 223 176  49 0.552    1  0.144
NORTHWEST DIVISION 215 177  62 0.542    2  0.117
ATLANTIC DIVISION  184 201  53 0.481    3 -0.044
PACIFIC DIVISION   174 189  69 0.483    4 -0.051
CENTRAL DIVISION   179 202  52 0.473    5 -0.118
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 174 204  55 0.465    6 -0.137

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.109 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:01:07 2024
games through: Mon Jun  7 2004

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