Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        60 28 322 228 -0.033 42.330    1  0.297    1  0.293    2  0.319    1 0.5400   12  1.129    2  0.389    6  0.249
BUFFALO        63 37 341 288  0.021 50.665    2  0.264    2  0.251    4  0.156    2 0.5334   14  1.095    6  0.184   10  0.127
CAROLINA       68 39 367 320 -0.033 51.990    3  0.247    4  0.225    7  0.123    4 0.5311    7  1.166    4  0.239   14  0.007
DALLAS         54 33 280 236  0.030 44.341    4  0.246    3  0.228    3  0.185    3 0.5317   24  0.990    9  0.088    3  0.282
OTTAWA         57 35 350 240 -0.022 44.770    5  0.221    5  0.194    1  0.354    5 0.5282   11  1.145    1  0.443    5  0.264
NASHVILLE      50 37 269 244 -0.020 42.740    6  0.124    6  0.116   12  0.067    6 0.5151   21  1.011   16 -0.005    9  0.139
CALGARY        49 40 234 217  0.043 45.943    7  0.122    7  0.114    6  0.132    7 0.5146   30  0.712   28 -0.264    1  0.528
EDMONTON       56 50 327 312  0.079 56.326    8  0.103    8  0.105   10  0.094    8 0.5141   18  1.048   12  0.065   11  0.122
SAN JOSE       50 43 295 272  0.041 47.971    9  0.091    9  0.092    9  0.103    9 0.5140   17  1.075    8  0.106   13  0.100
ANAHEIM        52 46 300 265  0.047 50.710   10  0.087   10  0.085    5  0.152   10 0.5124   26  0.974   15  0.036    4  0.268
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW JERSEY     51 40 269 250 -0.050 43.734   11  0.069   11  0.068   14  0.022   11 0.5097   28  0.903   23 -0.174    8  0.218
COLORADO       47 44 305 288  0.054 47.393   12  0.065   12  0.063    8  0.107   12 0.5083    3  1.259    3  0.345   19 -0.130
LOS ANGELES    42 40 249 270  0.041 42.551   13  0.047   13  0.046   18 -0.048   13 0.5068    5  1.176   10  0.081   22 -0.177
VANCOUVER      42 40 256 255  0.041 42.440   14  0.047   14  0.044   16  0.010   14 0.5053    8  1.165    7  0.125   17 -0.106
PHILADELPHIA   47 41 280 286 -0.047 42.571   15  0.030   15  0.025   20 -0.058   15 0.5039   10  1.156   14  0.046   21 -0.162
MONTREAL       44 44 260 262  0.008 44.356   16  0.015   16  0.001   15  0.011   16 0.5013   25  0.982   19 -0.095   12  0.117
TORONTO        41 41 257 270  0.001 41.217   17  0.008   17 -0.004   17 -0.047   17 0.4993    9  1.164   11  0.066   20 -0.161
TAMPA BAY      44 43 265 283 -0.027 42.827   18  0.003   18 -0.011   22 -0.072   18 0.4989   13  1.104   18 -0.032   18 -0.111
N.Y. RANGERS   44 42 261 232 -0.066 40.737   19 -0.008   19 -0.030   13  0.043   19 0.4969   27  0.907   21 -0.148    7  0.235
PHOENIX        38 44 246 271  0.042 42.621   20 -0.014   20 -0.036   21 -0.065   20 0.4957    6  1.173   13  0.060   23 -0.190
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATLANTA        41 41 281 275 -0.056 39.317   21 -0.017   21 -0.040   19 -0.050   21 0.4957    2  1.284    5  0.221   28 -0.320
MINNESOTA      38 44 231 215  0.036 42.171   22 -0.018   22 -0.042   11  0.075   22 0.4942   29  0.868   22 -0.158    2  0.309
FLORIDA        37 45 240 257 -0.052 39.624   23 -0.108   23 -0.122   23 -0.125   23 0.4846   22  0.998   25 -0.212   15 -0.037
COLUMBUS       35 47 223 279 -0.010 41.291   24 -0.125   24 -0.134   26 -0.243   24 0.4806   15  1.084   26 -0.229   27 -0.258
N.Y. ISLANDERS 36 46 230 278 -0.049 39.835   25 -0.134   25 -0.141   25 -0.239   25 0.4797   16  1.080   27 -0.230   25 -0.249
BOSTON         29 53 230 266  0.007 41.547   26 -0.233   26 -0.250   24 -0.126   26 0.4660   20  1.020   24 -0.188   16 -0.063
WASHINGTON     29 53 237 306 -0.041 40.192   27 -0.260   27 -0.280   28 -0.266   27 0.4624    4  1.195   20 -0.113   29 -0.420
CHICAGO        26 56 211 285 -0.009 41.372   28 -0.303   28 -0.327   27 -0.266   28 0.4556   19  1.035   29 -0.310   24 -0.223
ST. LOUIS      21 61 197 292 -0.002 41.708   29 -0.430   29 -0.430   30 -0.352   29 0.4417   23  0.991   30 -0.448   26 -0.257
PITTSBURGH     22 60 244 315 -0.045 40.080   30 -0.438   30 -0.437   29 -0.302   30 0.4408    1  1.291   17 -0.023   30 -0.582

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DALLAS         54 33 280 236  0.030 44.341    4  0.246    3  0.228    3  0.185    3 0.5317   24  0.990    9  0.088    3  0.282
SAN JOSE       50 43 295 272  0.041 47.971    9  0.091    9  0.092    9  0.103    9 0.5140   17  1.075    8  0.106   13  0.100
ANAHEIM        52 46 300 265  0.047 50.710   10  0.087   10  0.085    5  0.152   10 0.5124   26  0.974   15  0.036    4  0.268
LOS ANGELES    42 40 249 270  0.041 42.551   13  0.047   13  0.046   18 -0.048   13 0.5068    5  1.176   10  0.081   22 -0.177
PHOENIX        38 44 246 271  0.042 42.621   20 -0.014   20 -0.036   21 -0.065   20 0.4957    6  1.173   13  0.060   23 -0.190

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CALGARY        49 40 234 217  0.043 45.943    7  0.122    7  0.114    6  0.132    7 0.5146   30  0.712   28 -0.264    1  0.528
EDMONTON       56 50 327 312  0.079 56.326    8  0.103    8  0.105   10  0.094    8 0.5141   18  1.048   12  0.065   11  0.122
COLORADO       47 44 305 288  0.054 47.393   12  0.065   12  0.063    8  0.107   12 0.5083    3  1.259    3  0.345   19 -0.130
VANCOUVER      42 40 256 255  0.041 42.440   14  0.047   14  0.044   16  0.010   14 0.5053    8  1.165    7  0.125   17 -0.106
MINNESOTA      38 44 231 215  0.036 42.171   22 -0.018   22 -0.042   11  0.075   22 0.4942   29  0.868   22 -0.158    2  0.309

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        60 28 322 228 -0.033 42.330    1  0.297    1  0.293    2  0.319    1 0.5400   12  1.129    2  0.389    6  0.249
NASHVILLE      50 37 269 244 -0.020 42.740    6  0.124    6  0.116   12  0.067    6 0.5151   21  1.011   16 -0.005    9  0.139
COLUMBUS       35 47 223 279 -0.010 41.291   24 -0.125   24 -0.134   26 -0.243   24 0.4806   15  1.084   26 -0.229   27 -0.258
CHICAGO        26 56 211 285 -0.009 41.372   28 -0.303   28 -0.327   27 -0.266   28 0.4556   19  1.035   29 -0.310   24 -0.223
ST. LOUIS      21 61 197 292 -0.002 41.708   29 -0.430   29 -0.430   30 -0.352   29 0.4417   23  0.991   30 -0.448   26 -0.257

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUFFALO        63 37 341 288  0.021 50.665    2  0.264    2  0.251    4  0.156    2 0.5334   14  1.095    6  0.184   10  0.127
OTTAWA         57 35 350 240 -0.022 44.770    5  0.221    5  0.194    1  0.354    5 0.5282   11  1.145    1  0.443    5  0.264
MONTREAL       44 44 260 262  0.008 44.356   16  0.015   16  0.001   15  0.011   16 0.5013   25  0.982   19 -0.095   12  0.117
TORONTO        41 41 257 270  0.001 41.217   17  0.008   17 -0.004   17 -0.047   17 0.4993    9  1.164   11  0.066   20 -0.161
BOSTON         29 53 230 266  0.007 41.547   26 -0.233   26 -0.250   24 -0.126   26 0.4660   20  1.020   24 -0.188   16 -0.063

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW JERSEY     51 40 269 250 -0.050 43.734   11  0.069   11  0.068   14  0.022   11 0.5097   28  0.903   23 -0.174    8  0.218
PHILADELPHIA   47 41 280 286 -0.047 42.571   15  0.030   15  0.025   20 -0.058   15 0.5039   10  1.156   14  0.046   21 -0.162
N.Y. RANGERS   44 42 261 232 -0.066 40.737   19 -0.008   19 -0.030   13  0.043   19 0.4969   27  0.907   21 -0.148    7  0.235
N.Y. ISLANDERS 36 46 230 278 -0.049 39.835   25 -0.134   25 -0.141   25 -0.239   25 0.4797   16  1.080   27 -0.230   25 -0.249
PITTSBURGH     22 60 244 315 -0.045 40.080   30 -0.438   30 -0.437   29 -0.302   30 0.4408    1  1.291   17 -0.023   30 -0.582

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAROLINA       68 39 367 320 -0.033 51.990    3  0.247    4  0.225    7  0.123    4 0.5311    7  1.166    4  0.239   14  0.007
TAMPA BAY      44 43 265 283 -0.027 42.827   18  0.003   18 -0.011   22 -0.072   18 0.4989   13  1.104   18 -0.032   18 -0.111
ATLANTA        41 41 281 275 -0.056 39.317   21 -0.017   21 -0.040   19 -0.050   21 0.4957    2  1.284    5  0.221   28 -0.320
FLORIDA        37 45 240 257 -0.052 39.624   23 -0.108   23 -0.122   23 -0.125   23 0.4846   22  0.998   25 -0.212   15 -0.037
WASHINGTON     29 53 237 306 -0.041 40.192   27 -0.260   27 -0.280   28 -0.266   27 0.4624    4  1.195   20 -0.113   29 -0.420

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 232 218 0.516    1  0.111
NORTHEAST DIVISION 234 210 0.527    2  0.089
PACIFIC DIVISION   236 206 0.534    3  0.087
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 219 221 0.498    4 -0.100
CENTRAL DIVISION   192 229 0.456    5 -0.126
ATLANTIC DIVISION  200 229 0.466    6 -0.136

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.130 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.017 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:02:02 2024
games through: Mon Jun 19 2006

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