Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ANAHEIM        64 39 316 253  0.091 55.646    1  0.298    1  0.297    3  0.284    1 0.5354   22  0.948    7  0.207    7  0.362
SAN JOSE       57 36 283 226  0.088 50.023    2  0.284    2  0.275    2  0.306    2 0.5324   21  0.953    6  0.234    5  0.378
DETROIT        60 40 302 234  0.093 53.917    3  0.274    3  0.256    1  0.344    3 0.5300   26  0.858    9  0.167    1  0.522
NASHVILLE      52 35 286 228  0.063 45.994    4  0.243    4  0.223    4  0.271    6 0.5269   11  1.090    3  0.361    9  0.181
DALLAS         53 36 238 210  0.064 47.324    5  0.239    5  0.221    9  0.152    5 0.5271   28  0.735   23 -0.154    3  0.458
VANCOUVER      54 40 243 227  0.091 51.091    6  0.226    6  0.207   11  0.113    7 0.5251   29  0.704   25 -0.225    4  0.450
BUFFALO        62 36 352 281 -0.063 47.173    7  0.225    7  0.205    8  0.162    4 0.5276    3  1.189    2  0.376   13 -0.051
MINNESOTA      49 38 244 203  0.080 46.719    8  0.191    8  0.173    6  0.200    9 0.5212   27  0.745   18 -0.096    2  0.496
OTTAWA         61 41 347 269 -0.043 49.752    9  0.170    9  0.151    5  0.227    8 0.5235   16  1.074    4  0.297   10  0.157
COLORADO       44 38 272 251  0.066 43.685   10  0.112   10  0.108   10  0.138   10 0.5133    1  1.292    1  0.485   20 -0.210
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW JERSEY     54 39 246 230 -0.081 44.328   11  0.087   11  0.088   13  0.025   11 0.5129   30  0.694   30 -0.323    6  0.372
CALGARY        45 43 268 244  0.087 47.531   12  0.076   12  0.078    7  0.184   12 0.5091   14  1.077    5  0.258   11  0.111
PITTSBURGH     48 39 287 264 -0.070 41.868   13  0.042   13  0.042   14  0.003   13 0.5062    8  1.152    8  0.169   19 -0.163
N.Y. RANGERS   48 44 272 239 -0.079 43.849   14 -0.003   14 -0.022   12  0.059   14 0.4996   25  0.865   20 -0.111    8  0.230
MONTREAL       42 40 245 256 -0.072 39.618   15 -0.019   15 -0.032   18 -0.117   15 0.4989   10  1.094   14 -0.022   21 -0.212
TAMPA BAY      46 42 267 280 -0.097 41.660   16 -0.019   16 -0.033   20 -0.144   16 0.4980    9  1.143   12  0.012   24 -0.299
ATLANTA        43 43 252 262 -0.100 40.598   17 -0.056   17 -0.077   19 -0.122   18 0.4918   18  1.017   22 -0.120   18 -0.124
TORONTO        40 42 258 269 -0.073 39.567   18 -0.059   18 -0.079   17 -0.104   17 0.4933    4  1.185   10  0.104   25 -0.312
CAROLINA       40 42 241 253 -0.106 38.579   19 -0.089   19 -0.103   24 -0.157   19 0.4887   15  1.075   17 -0.085   23 -0.228
N.Y. ISLANDERS 41 46 259 257 -0.071 41.964   20 -0.090   20 -0.109   15 -0.059   20 0.4880   17  1.021   15 -0.052   14 -0.065
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ST. LOUIS      34 48 214 254  0.067 44.194   21 -0.094   21 -0.111   16 -0.099   21 0.4836   19  1.004   21 -0.112   16 -0.086
COLUMBUS       33 49 201 249  0.072 44.489   22 -0.121   22 -0.128   25 -0.175   22 0.4809   23  0.934   29 -0.269   15 -0.081
EDMONTON       32 50 195 248  0.084 44.814   23 -0.136   23 -0.142   23 -0.151   23 0.4800   24  0.919   28 -0.261   12 -0.041
PHOENIX        31 51 216 284  0.076 44.710   24 -0.173   24 -0.174   27 -0.208   25 0.4758    6  1.169   13 -0.021   27 -0.396
CHICAGO        31 51 201 258  0.072 44.494   25 -0.174   25 -0.175   26 -0.176   26 0.4753   20  0.961   26 -0.239   17 -0.113
BOSTON         35 47 219 289 -0.058 40.443   26 -0.176   26 -0.175   29 -0.333   24 0.4794   12  1.089   27 -0.246   28 -0.421
FLORIDA        35 47 247 257 -0.106 38.530   27 -0.204   27 -0.216   21 -0.144   27 0.4748   13  1.078   16 -0.069   22 -0.219
LOS ANGELES    27 55 227 283  0.073 44.484   28 -0.243   28 -0.265   22 -0.150   28 0.4646    2  1.191   11  0.066   26 -0.366
WASHINGTON     28 54 235 286 -0.096 39.066   29 -0.342   29 -0.364   28 -0.284   29 0.4553    7  1.161   19 -0.107   29 -0.461
PHILADELPHIA   22 60 214 303 -0.065 40.265   30 -0.469   30 -0.479   30 -0.400   30 0.4398    5  1.171   24 -0.210   30 -0.590
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ANAHEIM        64 39 316 253  0.091 55.646    1  0.298    1  0.297    3  0.284    1 0.5354   22  0.948    7  0.207    7  0.362
SAN JOSE       57 36 283 226  0.088 50.023    2  0.284    2  0.275    2  0.306    2 0.5324   21  0.953    6  0.234    5  0.378
DALLAS         53 36 238 210  0.064 47.324    5  0.239    5  0.221    9  0.152    5 0.5271   28  0.735   23 -0.154    3  0.458
PHOENIX        31 51 216 284  0.076 44.710   24 -0.173   24 -0.174   27 -0.208   25 0.4758    6  1.169   13 -0.021   27 -0.396
LOS ANGELES    27 55 227 283  0.073 44.484   28 -0.243   28 -0.265   22 -0.150   28 0.4646    2  1.191   11  0.066   26 -0.366

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
VANCOUVER      54 40 243 227  0.091 51.091    6  0.226    6  0.207   11  0.113    7 0.5251   29  0.704   25 -0.225    4  0.450
MINNESOTA      49 38 244 203  0.080 46.719    8  0.191    8  0.173    6  0.200    9 0.5212   27  0.745   18 -0.096    2  0.496
COLORADO       44 38 272 251  0.066 43.685   10  0.112   10  0.108   10  0.138   10 0.5133    1  1.292    1  0.485   20 -0.210
CALGARY        45 43 268 244  0.087 47.531   12  0.076   12  0.078    7  0.184   12 0.5091   14  1.077    5  0.258   11  0.111
EDMONTON       32 50 195 248  0.084 44.814   23 -0.136   23 -0.142   23 -0.151   23 0.4800   24  0.919   28 -0.261   12 -0.041

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        60 40 302 234  0.093 53.917    3  0.274    3  0.256    1  0.344    3 0.5300   26  0.858    9  0.167    1  0.522
NASHVILLE      52 35 286 228  0.063 45.994    4  0.243    4  0.223    4  0.271    6 0.5269   11  1.090    3  0.361    9  0.181
ST. LOUIS      34 48 214 254  0.067 44.194   21 -0.094   21 -0.111   16 -0.099   21 0.4836   19  1.004   21 -0.112   16 -0.086
COLUMBUS       33 49 201 249  0.072 44.489   22 -0.121   22 -0.128   25 -0.175   22 0.4809   23  0.934   29 -0.269   15 -0.081
CHICAGO        31 51 201 258  0.072 44.494   25 -0.174   25 -0.175   26 -0.176   26 0.4753   20  0.961   26 -0.239   17 -0.113

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY      46 42 267 280 -0.097 41.660   16 -0.019   16 -0.033   20 -0.144   16 0.4980    9  1.143   12  0.012   24 -0.299
ATLANTA        43 43 252 262 -0.100 40.598   17 -0.056   17 -0.077   19 -0.122   18 0.4918   18  1.017   22 -0.120   18 -0.124
CAROLINA       40 42 241 253 -0.106 38.579   19 -0.089   19 -0.103   24 -0.157   19 0.4887   15  1.075   17 -0.085   23 -0.228
FLORIDA        35 47 247 257 -0.106 38.530   27 -0.204   27 -0.216   21 -0.144   27 0.4748   13  1.078   16 -0.069   22 -0.219
WASHINGTON     28 54 235 286 -0.096 39.066   29 -0.342   29 -0.364   28 -0.284   29 0.4553    7  1.161   19 -0.107   29 -0.461

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUFFALO        62 36 352 281 -0.063 47.173    7  0.225    7  0.205    8  0.162    4 0.5276    3  1.189    2  0.376   13 -0.051
OTTAWA         61 41 347 269 -0.043 49.752    9  0.170    9  0.151    5  0.227    8 0.5235   16  1.074    4  0.297   10  0.157
MONTREAL       42 40 245 256 -0.072 39.618   15 -0.019   15 -0.032   18 -0.117   15 0.4989   10  1.094   14 -0.022   21 -0.212
TORONTO        40 42 258 269 -0.073 39.567   18 -0.059   18 -0.079   17 -0.104   17 0.4933    4  1.185   10  0.104   25 -0.312
BOSTON         35 47 219 289 -0.058 40.443   26 -0.176   26 -0.175   29 -0.333   24 0.4794   12  1.089   27 -0.246   28 -0.421

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW JERSEY     54 39 246 230 -0.081 44.328   11  0.087   11  0.088   13  0.025   11 0.5129   30  0.694   30 -0.323    6  0.372
PITTSBURGH     48 39 287 264 -0.070 41.868   13  0.042   13  0.042   14  0.003   13 0.5062    8  1.152    8  0.169   19 -0.163
N.Y. RANGERS   48 44 272 239 -0.079 43.849   14 -0.003   14 -0.022   12  0.059   14 0.4996   25  0.865   20 -0.111    8  0.230
N.Y. ISLANDERS 41 46 259 257 -0.071 41.964   20 -0.090   20 -0.109   15 -0.059   20 0.4880   17  1.021   15 -0.052   14 -0.065
PHILADELPHIA   22 60 214 303 -0.065 40.265   30 -0.469   30 -0.479   30 -0.400   30 0.4398    5  1.171   24 -0.210   30 -0.590

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 224 209 0.517    1  0.123
PACIFIC DIVISION   232 217 0.517    2  0.094
CENTRAL DIVISION   210 223 0.485    3  0.039
NORTHEAST DIVISION 240 206 0.538    4 -0.041
ATLANTIC DIVISION  213 228 0.483    5 -0.088
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 192 228 0.457    6 -0.208

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.142 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:46:05 2020
games through: Wed Jun  6 2007

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