Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO      52 19 219 150  0.021 35.869    1  0.222    1  0.145    1  0.131    1 0.5633   18  0.882   11  0.073    5  0.189
PITTSBURGH   44 19 214 159  0.032 32.101    2  0.116    2  0.111    3  0.109    2 0.5406    3  1.157    1  0.376   21 -0.157
BOSTON       42 28 196 156  0.082 37.184    3  0.048    3  0.070    2  0.115    5 0.5249   26  0.732   20 -0.101    1  0.330
ANAHEIM      33 22 161 136 -0.013 27.325    4  0.025    4  0.033    4  0.043    3 0.5292   16  0.965   10  0.079   13  0.007
ST. LOUIS    31 23 139 127  0.004 27.396    5  0.021    5  0.023   11  0.011    4 0.5255   23  0.800   23 -0.134    9  0.156
MONTREAL     30 23 158 146  0.015 27.022    6  0.020    6  0.020    7  0.028   10 0.5076    8  1.070    5  0.188   19 -0.131
LOS ANGELES  36 30 170 152  0.023 33.856    7  0.018    7  0.016    5  0.039    6 0.5225   22  0.801   21 -0.105    6  0.184
TORONTO      29 26 163 155  0.056 28.941    8  0.017    8  0.008    6  0.035   12 0.5027    5  1.121    3  0.256   23 -0.186
SAN JOSE     32 27 149 138  0.001 29.959    9  0.016    9  0.007   13  0.000    7 0.5171   27  0.725   27 -0.222    4  0.223
OTTAWA       30 28 147 135  0.061 30.702   10  0.016   10  0.004    8  0.028   14 0.5022   30  0.645   29 -0.274    2  0.330
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NY RANGERS   31 29 156 140  0.041 31.348   11  0.015   12 -0.000   10  0.016   15 0.4998   29  0.695   28 -0.237    3  0.268
WASHINGTON   30 25 161 146 -0.023 27.342   12  0.014   11  0.001   12  0.002   16 0.4997   13  0.988   12  0.064   16 -0.061
DETROIT      31 31 157 152  0.050 32.640   13  0.013   13 -0.007    9  0.016    8 0.5148   24  0.796   22 -0.134    8  0.166
MINNESOTA    27 26 129 144 -0.024 26.760   14  0.009   14 -0.018   24 -0.066    9 0.5092   21  0.858   24 -0.150   12  0.017
NY ISLANDERS 26 28 156 164  0.036 28.373   15  0.009   15 -0.020   15 -0.026   18 0.4923    9  1.066    8  0.128   22 -0.181
COLUMBUS     24 24 120 119 -0.029 23.917   16  0.007   16 -0.025   16 -0.029   11 0.5048   25  0.766   26 -0.210   10  0.152
WINNIPEG     24 24 128 144 -0.041 23.942   17  0.006   17 -0.026   25 -0.067   20 0.4878   12  1.007   13  0.017   20 -0.151
VANCOUVER    26 26 135 136 -0.052 25.322   18  0.005   18 -0.030   14 -0.015   13 0.5026   19  0.875   19 -0.080   11  0.050
PHILADELPHIA 23 25 133 141 -0.008 24.504   19  0.004   19 -0.030   19 -0.051   21 0.4860    7  1.081    9  0.122   24 -0.223
DALLAS       22 26 130 142 -0.021 24.229   20 -0.002   20 -0.044   21 -0.053   17 0.4961    6  1.119    6  0.166   26 -0.272
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUFFALO      21 27 125 143  0.011 24.931   21 -0.003   21 -0.046   22 -0.060   23 0.4782   14  0.970   14 -0.018   17 -0.102
PHOENIX      21 27 125 131 -0.023 24.087   22 -0.010   22 -0.055   17 -0.037   19 0.4911   17  0.927   17 -0.045   15 -0.030
NEW JERSEY   19 29 112 129 -0.011 24.457   23 -0.029   23 -0.073   20 -0.053   26 0.4670   28  0.718   30 -0.282    7  0.177
CAROLINA     19 29 128 160 -0.033 24.284   24 -0.035   24 -0.077   27 -0.097   27 0.4640    4  1.148    7  0.159   28 -0.352
EDMONTON     19 29 125 134 -0.060 23.511   25 -0.046   26 -0.083   23 -0.065   24 0.4777   15  0.970   16 -0.024   18 -0.106
CALGARY      19 29 128 160 -0.056 23.835   26 -0.048   25 -0.081   28 -0.107   22 0.4785    1  1.232    4  0.255   30 -0.469
TAMPA BAY    18 30 148 150 -0.046 23.664   27 -0.071   27 -0.093   18 -0.043   29 0.4583    2  1.219    2  0.302   29 -0.387
NASHVILLE    16 32 111 139 -0.021 24.450   28 -0.101   28 -0.107   26 -0.089   25 0.4680   20  0.874   25 -0.155   14 -0.023
COLORADO     16 32 116 152 -0.060 23.880   29 -0.122   29 -0.114   29 -0.126   28 0.4636   11  1.026   15 -0.019   25 -0.234
FLORIDA      15 33 112 171 -0.039 24.566   30 -0.136   30 -0.118   30 -0.170   30 0.4446   10  1.031   18 -0.057   27 -0.282

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ANAHEIM      33 22 161 136 -0.013 27.325    4  0.025    4  0.033    4  0.043    3 0.5292   16  0.965   10  0.079   13  0.007
LOS ANGELES  36 30 170 152  0.023 33.856    7  0.018    7  0.016    5  0.039    6 0.5225   22  0.801   21 -0.105    6  0.184
SAN JOSE     32 27 149 138  0.001 29.959    9  0.016    9  0.007   13  0.000    7 0.5171   27  0.725   27 -0.222    4  0.223
DALLAS       22 26 130 142 -0.021 24.229   20 -0.002   20 -0.044   21 -0.053   17 0.4961    6  1.119    6  0.166   26 -0.272
PHOENIX      21 27 125 131 -0.023 24.087   22 -0.010   22 -0.055   17 -0.037   19 0.4911   17  0.927   17 -0.045   15 -0.030

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MINNESOTA    27 26 129 144 -0.024 26.760   14  0.009   14 -0.018   24 -0.066    9 0.5092   21  0.858   24 -0.150   12  0.017
VANCOUVER    26 26 135 136 -0.052 25.322   18  0.005   18 -0.030   14 -0.015   13 0.5026   19  0.875   19 -0.080   11  0.050
EDMONTON     19 29 125 134 -0.060 23.511   25 -0.046   26 -0.083   23 -0.065   24 0.4777   15  0.970   16 -0.024   18 -0.106
CALGARY      19 29 128 160 -0.056 23.835   26 -0.048   25 -0.081   28 -0.107   22 0.4785    1  1.232    4  0.255   30 -0.469
COLORADO     16 32 116 152 -0.060 23.880   29 -0.122   29 -0.114   29 -0.126   28 0.4636   11  1.026   15 -0.019   25 -0.234

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHICAGO      52 19 219 150  0.021 35.869    1  0.222    1  0.145    1  0.131    1 0.5633   18  0.882   11  0.073    5  0.189
ST. LOUIS    31 23 139 127  0.004 27.396    5  0.021    5  0.023   11  0.011    4 0.5255   23  0.800   23 -0.134    9  0.156
DETROIT      31 31 157 152  0.050 32.640   13  0.013   13 -0.007    9  0.016    8 0.5148   24  0.796   22 -0.134    8  0.166
COLUMBUS     24 24 120 119 -0.029 23.917   16  0.007   16 -0.025   16 -0.029   11 0.5048   25  0.766   26 -0.210   10  0.152
NASHVILLE    16 32 111 139 -0.021 24.450   28 -0.101   28 -0.107   26 -0.089   25 0.4680   20  0.874   25 -0.155   14 -0.023

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WASHINGTON   30 25 161 146 -0.023 27.342   12  0.014   11  0.001   12  0.002   16 0.4997   13  0.988   12  0.064   16 -0.061
WINNIPEG     24 24 128 144 -0.041 23.942   17  0.006   17 -0.026   25 -0.067   20 0.4878   12  1.007   13  0.017   20 -0.151
CAROLINA     19 29 128 160 -0.033 24.284   24 -0.035   24 -0.077   27 -0.097   27 0.4640    4  1.148    7  0.159   28 -0.352
TAMPA BAY    18 30 148 150 -0.046 23.664   27 -0.071   27 -0.093   18 -0.043   29 0.4583    2  1.219    2  0.302   29 -0.387
FLORIDA      15 33 112 171 -0.039 24.566   30 -0.136   30 -0.118   30 -0.170   30 0.4446   10  1.031   18 -0.057   27 -0.282

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON       42 28 196 156  0.082 37.184    3  0.048    3  0.070    2  0.115    5 0.5249   26  0.732   20 -0.101    1  0.330
MONTREAL     30 23 158 146  0.015 27.022    6  0.020    6  0.020    7  0.028   10 0.5076    8  1.070    5  0.188   19 -0.131
TORONTO      29 26 163 155  0.056 28.941    8  0.017    8  0.008    6  0.035   12 0.5027    5  1.121    3  0.256   23 -0.186
OTTAWA       30 28 147 135  0.061 30.702   10  0.016   10  0.004    8  0.028   14 0.5022   30  0.645   29 -0.274    2  0.330
BUFFALO      21 27 125 143  0.011 24.931   21 -0.003   21 -0.046   22 -0.060   23 0.4782   14  0.970   14 -0.018   17 -0.102

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH   44 19 214 159  0.032 32.101    2  0.116    2  0.111    3  0.109    2 0.5406    3  1.157    1  0.376   21 -0.157
NY RANGERS   31 29 156 140  0.041 31.348   11  0.015   12 -0.000   10  0.016   15 0.4998   29  0.695   28 -0.237    3  0.268
NY ISLANDERS 26 28 156 164  0.036 28.373   15  0.009   15 -0.020   15 -0.026   18 0.4923    9  1.066    8  0.128   22 -0.181
PHILADELPHIA 23 25 133 141 -0.008 24.504   19  0.004   19 -0.030   19 -0.051   21 0.4860    7  1.081    9  0.122   24 -0.223
NEW JERSEY   19 29 112 129 -0.011 24.457   23 -0.029   23 -0.073   20 -0.053   26 0.4670   28  0.718   30 -0.282    7  0.177

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHEAST DIVISION 152 132 0.535    1  0.134
CENTRAL DIVISION   154 129 0.544    2  0.058
PACIFIC DIVISION   144 132 0.522    3  0.042
ATLANTIC DIVISION  143 130 0.524    4  0.038
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 106 141 0.429    5 -0.207
NORTHWEST DIVISION 107 142 0.430    6 -0.209

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.146 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.018 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:04:38 2024
games through: Mon Jun 24 2013

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