Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS     62 33 299 218  0.031 47.963    1  0.297    1  0.287    1  0.297    1 0.5388   24  0.881    7  0.213    1  0.382
PENGUINS     66 41 359 291  0.046 54.782    2  0.266    2  0.241    2  0.248    2 0.5327    2  1.176    1  0.513   15 -0.017
BLUE JACKETS 51 36 262 216  0.028 43.995    3  0.187    3  0.160    3  0.179    3 0.5232   16  0.945    9  0.166    4  0.193
RANGERS      54 40 290 250  0.016 47.153    4  0.158    4  0.136    5  0.156    4 0.5201    6  1.089    2  0.313   14 -0.001
BLACKHAWKS   50 36 247 226 -0.022 42.004    5  0.133    5  0.119   14  0.034    5 0.5174   17  0.944   15  0.020   13  0.049
OILERS       54 41 283 247 -0.011 46.676    6  0.121    7  0.109    6  0.121    6 0.5162    9  1.015    8  0.189   12  0.053
DUCKS        56 43 273 252 -0.006 48.895    7  0.117    6  0.109    8  0.093    8 0.5158   23  0.884   16  0.012    6  0.173
WILD         50 37 274 219 -0.026 42.143    8  0.116    8  0.104    4  0.166    7 0.5160    7  1.034    5  0.257   11  0.075
BLUES        52 41 257 241 -0.001 46.145    9  0.099   10  0.098   11  0.068    9 0.5139   20  0.913   14  0.020    8  0.117
CANADIENS    49 39 237 214  0.005 43.901   10  0.097   11  0.097   12  0.064   10 0.5138   29  0.779   21 -0.130    2  0.258
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SENATORS     55 46 259 264  0.035 51.667   11  0.096    9  0.100   16  0.024   11 0.5135   27  0.805   22 -0.142    5  0.191
SHARKS       48 40 235 213 -0.012 43.275   12  0.062   12  0.066   10  0.071   12 0.5104   26  0.818   19 -0.082    3  0.223
PREDATORS    55 49 300 272  0.010 51.993   13  0.048   13  0.055    7  0.103   13 0.5093   12  0.968   10  0.116   10  0.091
BRUINS       46 42 247 227 -0.006 43.483   14  0.033   14  0.030    9  0.082   14 0.5051   15  0.947   12  0.071    9  0.094
FLAMES       45 41 235 235 -0.023 42.091   15  0.025   15  0.021   18 -0.032   15 0.5039   11  0.978   17 -0.008   16 -0.057
LIGHTNING    42 40 234 227 -0.007 40.577   16  0.018   16  0.009   17  0.010   16 0.5016    8  1.018   11  0.082   17 -0.061
ISLANDERS    41 41 241 242  0.007 41.031   17  0.012   17  0.001   15  0.031   17 0.5003    5  1.111    6  0.213   25 -0.152
MAPLE LEAFS  42 46 267 260  0.015 44.280   18 -0.011   18 -0.033   13  0.052   18 0.4956    3  1.135    4  0.265   26 -0.161
JETS         40 42 249 256 -0.028 40.001   19 -0.021   19 -0.043   19 -0.040   19 0.4949    1  1.226    3  0.288   29 -0.369
FLYERS       39 43 219 236  0.000 40.994   20 -0.023   20 -0.045   22 -0.082   20 0.4936   13  0.961   18 -0.077   22 -0.087
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS        39 43 201 205 -0.024 40.179   21 -0.038   21 -0.062   20 -0.065   21 0.4925   30  0.738   27 -0.301    7  0.170
HURRICANES   36 46 215 236  0.004 41.126   22 -0.086   22 -0.106   21 -0.078   22 0.4854   14  0.947   20 -0.088   19 -0.067
PANTHERS     35 47 210 237 -0.003 40.931   23 -0.113   23 -0.127   23 -0.108   23 0.4815   18  0.926   23 -0.142   20 -0.075
STARS        34 48 223 262 -0.024 40.373   24 -0.156   24 -0.162   26 -0.169   24 0.4776    4  1.115   13  0.020   28 -0.357
SABRES       33 49 201 237 -0.003 40.985   25 -0.164   25 -0.169   24 -0.150   26 0.4758   21  0.900   25 -0.213   21 -0.087
RED WINGS    33 49 207 244 -0.003 41.025   26 -0.165   26 -0.169   25 -0.168   25 0.4758   19  0.919   24 -0.210   23 -0.126
CANUCKS      30 52 182 243 -0.021 40.617   27 -0.230   27 -0.242   29 -0.281   27 0.4663   25  0.821   29 -0.430   24 -0.132
COYOTES      30 52 197 260 -0.024 40.538   28 -0.232   28 -0.245   28 -0.273   28 0.4660   10  0.983   26 -0.243   27 -0.304
DEVILS       28 54 183 244  0.009 41.555   29 -0.245   29 -0.266   27 -0.239   29 0.4625   28  0.799   28 -0.411   18 -0.066
AVALANCHE    22 60 166 278 -0.014 41.061   30 -0.402   30 -0.407   30 -0.461   30 0.4431   22  0.891   30 -0.534   30 -0.388
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OILERS       54 41 283 247 -0.011 46.676    6  0.121    7  0.109    6  0.121    6 0.5162    9  1.015    8  0.189   12  0.053
DUCKS        56 43 273 252 -0.006 48.895    7  0.117    6  0.109    8  0.093    8 0.5158   23  0.884   16  0.012    6  0.173
SHARKS       48 40 235 213 -0.012 43.275   12  0.062   12  0.066   10  0.071   12 0.5104   26  0.818   19 -0.082    3  0.223
FLAMES       45 41 235 235 -0.023 42.091   15  0.025   15  0.021   18 -0.032   15 0.5039   11  0.978   17 -0.008   16 -0.057
KINGS        39 43 201 205 -0.024 40.179   21 -0.038   21 -0.062   20 -0.065   21 0.4925   30  0.738   27 -0.301    7  0.170
CANUCKS      30 52 182 243 -0.021 40.617   27 -0.230   27 -0.242   29 -0.281   27 0.4663   25  0.821   29 -0.430   24 -0.132
COYOTES      30 52 197 260 -0.024 40.538   28 -0.232   28 -0.245   28 -0.273   28 0.4660   10  0.983   26 -0.243   27 -0.304

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS   50 36 247 226 -0.022 42.004    5  0.133    5  0.119   14  0.034    5 0.5174   17  0.944   15  0.020   13  0.049
WILD         50 37 274 219 -0.026 42.143    8  0.116    8  0.104    4  0.166    7 0.5160    7  1.034    5  0.257   11  0.075
BLUES        52 41 257 241 -0.001 46.145    9  0.099   10  0.098   11  0.068    9 0.5139   20  0.913   14  0.020    8  0.117
PREDATORS    55 49 300 272  0.010 51.993   13  0.048   13  0.055    7  0.103   13 0.5093   12  0.968   10  0.116   10  0.091
JETS         40 42 249 256 -0.028 40.001   19 -0.021   19 -0.043   19 -0.040   19 0.4949    1  1.226    3  0.288   29 -0.369
STARS        34 48 223 262 -0.024 40.373   24 -0.156   24 -0.162   26 -0.169   24 0.4776    4  1.115   13  0.020   28 -0.357
AVALANCHE    22 60 166 278 -0.014 41.061   30 -0.402   30 -0.407   30 -0.461   30 0.4431   22  0.891   30 -0.534   30 -0.388

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CANADIENS    49 39 237 214  0.005 43.901   10  0.097   11  0.097   12  0.064   10 0.5138   29  0.779   21 -0.130    2  0.258
SENATORS     55 46 259 264  0.035 51.667   11  0.096    9  0.100   16  0.024   11 0.5135   27  0.805   22 -0.142    5  0.191
BRUINS       46 42 247 227 -0.006 43.483   14  0.033   14  0.030    9  0.082   14 0.5051   15  0.947   12  0.071    9  0.094
LIGHTNING    42 40 234 227 -0.007 40.577   16  0.018   16  0.009   17  0.010   16 0.5016    8  1.018   11  0.082   17 -0.061
MAPLE LEAFS  42 46 267 260  0.015 44.280   18 -0.011   18 -0.033   13  0.052   18 0.4956    3  1.135    4  0.265   26 -0.161
PANTHERS     35 47 210 237 -0.003 40.931   23 -0.113   23 -0.127   23 -0.108   23 0.4815   18  0.926   23 -0.142   20 -0.075
SABRES       33 49 201 237 -0.003 40.985   25 -0.164   25 -0.169   24 -0.150   26 0.4758   21  0.900   25 -0.213   21 -0.087
RED WINGS    33 49 207 244 -0.003 41.025   26 -0.165   26 -0.169   25 -0.168   25 0.4758   19  0.919   24 -0.210   23 -0.126

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS     62 33 299 218  0.031 47.963    1  0.297    1  0.287    1  0.297    1 0.5388   24  0.881    7  0.213    1  0.382
PENGUINS     66 41 359 291  0.046 54.782    2  0.266    2  0.241    2  0.248    2 0.5327    2  1.176    1  0.513   15 -0.017
BLUE JACKETS 51 36 262 216  0.028 43.995    3  0.187    3  0.160    3  0.179    3 0.5232   16  0.945    9  0.166    4  0.193
RANGERS      54 40 290 250  0.016 47.153    4  0.158    4  0.136    5  0.156    4 0.5201    6  1.089    2  0.313   14 -0.001
ISLANDERS    41 41 241 242  0.007 41.031   17  0.012   17  0.001   15  0.031   17 0.5003    5  1.111    6  0.213   25 -0.152
FLYERS       39 43 219 236  0.000 40.994   20 -0.023   20 -0.045   22 -0.082   20 0.4936   13  0.961   18 -0.077   22 -0.087
HURRICANES   36 46 215 236  0.004 41.126   22 -0.086   22 -0.106   21 -0.078   22 0.4854   14  0.947   20 -0.088   19 -0.067
DEVILS       28 54 183 244  0.009 41.555   29 -0.245   29 -0.266   27 -0.239   29 0.4625   28  0.799   28 -0.411   18 -0.066

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 377 334 0.530    1  0.085
ATLANTIC DIVISION     335 358 0.483    2 -0.028
CENTRAL DIVISION      303 313 0.492    3 -0.051
PACIFIC DIVISION      302 312 0.492    4 -0.066

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.134 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:05:34 2024
games through: Sun Jun 11 2017

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