Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING      65 34 346 284 -0.004 49.182    1  0.273    1  0.263    5  0.189    1 0.5381    2  1.199    1  0.385   14 -0.008
PREDATORS      60 35 308 253  0.040 48.799    2  0.263    2  0.245    2  0.241    2 0.5345   17  1.031    5  0.230    2  0.252
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 64 38 329 275  0.036 52.276    3  0.261    3  0.242    3  0.199    3 0.5333   12  1.066    6  0.229    7  0.170
JETS           61 38 330 260  0.047 51.042    4  0.255    4  0.230    1  0.269    4 0.5323   13  1.060    2  0.292    3  0.245
CAPITALS       65 41 345 300  0.019 53.714    5  0.242    5  0.209    6  0.140    5 0.5312   10  1.078    8  0.185   10  0.095
BRUINS         55 39 311 251 -0.002 46.761    6  0.162    6  0.138    4  0.191    6 0.5211   20  1.021    9  0.167    5  0.214
MAPLE LEAFS    52 37 297 260 -0.005 44.247    7  0.145    7  0.132    9  0.111    7 0.5192    4  1.154    4  0.250   15 -0.027
SHARKS         51 41 282 255  0.014 46.476    8  0.097    9  0.097    8  0.113    9 0.5138   21  1.016   11  0.084    9  0.143
PENGUINS       53 41 314 284 -0.012 46.562    9  0.096    8  0.097   10  0.085    8 0.5154    3  1.176    3  0.252   23 -0.082
WILD           46 41 262 248  0.031 44.605   10  0.060   10  0.063   11  0.074   10 0.5090   19  1.027   13  0.058   11  0.090
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUES          44 38 226 222  0.010 41.485   11  0.058   11  0.063   15  0.008   11 0.5089   29  0.888   24 -0.167    6  0.182
BLUE JACKETS   47 41 260 254 -0.009 43.818   12  0.042   12  0.047   17  0.002   12 0.5083   23  0.972   18 -0.078   12  0.082
KINGS          45 41 242 210  0.009 43.243   13  0.039   13  0.040    7  0.123   13 0.5059   31  0.796   23 -0.151    1  0.397
PANTHERS       44 38 248 246 -0.028 40.219   14  0.036   14  0.037   16  0.004   14 0.5058    8  1.086   12  0.058   18 -0.050
AVALANCHE      45 43 272 259  0.030 45.079   15  0.032   15  0.032   12  0.069   15 0.5051    7  1.103   10  0.144   13 -0.006
STARS          42 40 235 225  0.010 41.413   16  0.024   16  0.022   14  0.036   17 0.5031   28  0.937   19 -0.084    8  0.155
DEVILS         45 42 260 262 -0.006 43.466   17  0.022   17  0.021   18 -0.023   16 0.5044   15  1.050   15 -0.012   16 -0.034
DUCKS          44 42 239 232  0.006 43.267   18  0.022   18  0.019   13  0.051   18 0.5023   30  0.882   22 -0.130    4  0.233
FLYERS         44 44 266 271 -0.013 43.741   19  0.001   19 -0.012   19 -0.035   19 0.4991   11  1.069   14 -0.001   21 -0.069
FLAMES         37 45 218 248 -0.003 41.238   20 -0.063   20 -0.084   22 -0.120   20 0.4870   24  0.972   26 -0.201   17 -0.040
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OILERS         36 46 234 263 -0.001 41.333   21 -0.086   21 -0.104   26 -0.155   21 0.4841    6  1.111   16 -0.070   28 -0.240
HURRICANES     36 46 228 256 -0.022 40.579   22 -0.099   22 -0.115   20 -0.092   22 0.4834   18  1.031   20 -0.104   22 -0.081
ISLANDERS      35 47 264 296 -0.021 40.692   23 -0.126   23 -0.135   23 -0.145   23 0.4805    1  1.329    7  0.222   31 -0.513
BLACKHAWKS     33 49 229 256  0.016 41.820   24 -0.145   24 -0.151   21 -0.093   25 0.4773   14  1.059   17 -0.072   24 -0.115
RANGERS        34 48 231 268 -0.020 40.711   25 -0.150   25 -0.154   25 -0.155   24 0.4776    9  1.079   21 -0.108   27 -0.201
CANUCKS        31 51 218 264  0.003 41.499   26 -0.200   26 -0.200   28 -0.177   26 0.4699   16  1.046   25 -0.171   26 -0.183
RED WINGS      30 52 217 255 -0.026 40.543   27 -0.227   27 -0.238   24 -0.148   27 0.4651   25  0.962   28 -0.240   20 -0.056
COYOTES        29 53 208 256  0.004 41.517   28 -0.229   28 -0.239   27 -0.167   28 0.4643   27  0.940   29 -0.284   19 -0.051
CANADIENS      29 53 209 264 -0.025 40.738   29 -0.243   29 -0.259   29 -0.242   29 0.4622   26  0.956   30 -0.340   25 -0.144
SENATORS       28 54 221 291 -0.024 40.869   30 -0.257   30 -0.276   30 -0.306   30 0.4593    5  1.118   27 -0.212   30 -0.400
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SABRES         25 57 199 280 -0.023 40.895   31 -0.307   31 -0.333   31 -0.320   31 0.4505   22  0.989   31 -0.380   29 -0.260

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 64 38 329 275  0.036 52.276    3  0.261    3  0.242    3  0.199    3 0.5333   12  1.066    6  0.229    7  0.170
SHARKS         51 41 282 255  0.014 46.476    8  0.097    9  0.097    8  0.113    9 0.5138   21  1.016   11  0.084    9  0.143
KINGS          45 41 242 210  0.009 43.243   13  0.039   13  0.040    7  0.123   13 0.5059   31  0.796   23 -0.151    1  0.397
DUCKS          44 42 239 232  0.006 43.267   18  0.022   18  0.019   13  0.051   18 0.5023   30  0.882   22 -0.130    4  0.233
FLAMES         37 45 218 248 -0.003 41.238   20 -0.063   20 -0.084   22 -0.120   20 0.4870   24  0.972   26 -0.201   17 -0.040
OILERS         36 46 234 263 -0.001 41.333   21 -0.086   21 -0.104   26 -0.155   21 0.4841    6  1.111   16 -0.070   28 -0.240
CANUCKS        31 51 218 264  0.003 41.499   26 -0.200   26 -0.200   28 -0.177   26 0.4699   16  1.046   25 -0.171   26 -0.183
COYOTES        29 53 208 256  0.004 41.517   28 -0.229   28 -0.239   27 -0.167   28 0.4643   27  0.940   29 -0.284   19 -0.051

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PREDATORS      60 35 308 253  0.040 48.799    2  0.263    2  0.245    2  0.241    2 0.5345   17  1.031    5  0.230    2  0.252
JETS           61 38 330 260  0.047 51.042    4  0.255    4  0.230    1  0.269    4 0.5323   13  1.060    2  0.292    3  0.245
WILD           46 41 262 248  0.031 44.605   10  0.060   10  0.063   11  0.074   10 0.5090   19  1.027   13  0.058   11  0.090
BLUES          44 38 226 222  0.010 41.485   11  0.058   11  0.063   15  0.008   11 0.5089   29  0.888   24 -0.167    6  0.182
AVALANCHE      45 43 272 259  0.030 45.079   15  0.032   15  0.032   12  0.069   15 0.5051    7  1.103   10  0.144   13 -0.006
STARS          42 40 235 225  0.010 41.413   16  0.024   16  0.022   14  0.036   17 0.5031   28  0.937   19 -0.084    8  0.155
BLACKHAWKS     33 49 229 256  0.016 41.820   24 -0.145   24 -0.151   21 -0.093   25 0.4773   14  1.059   17 -0.072   24 -0.115

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING      65 34 346 284 -0.004 49.182    1  0.273    1  0.263    5  0.189    1 0.5381    2  1.199    1  0.385   14 -0.008
BRUINS         55 39 311 251 -0.002 46.761    6  0.162    6  0.138    4  0.191    6 0.5211   20  1.021    9  0.167    5  0.214
MAPLE LEAFS    52 37 297 260 -0.005 44.247    7  0.145    7  0.132    9  0.111    7 0.5192    4  1.154    4  0.250   15 -0.027
PANTHERS       44 38 248 246 -0.028 40.219   14  0.036   14  0.037   16  0.004   14 0.5058    8  1.086   12  0.058   18 -0.050
RED WINGS      30 52 217 255 -0.026 40.543   27 -0.227   27 -0.238   24 -0.148   27 0.4651   25  0.962   28 -0.240   20 -0.056
CANADIENS      29 53 209 264 -0.025 40.738   29 -0.243   29 -0.259   29 -0.242   29 0.4622   26  0.956   30 -0.340   25 -0.144
SENATORS       28 54 221 291 -0.024 40.869   30 -0.257   30 -0.276   30 -0.306   30 0.4593    5  1.118   27 -0.212   30 -0.400
SABRES         25 57 199 280 -0.023 40.895   31 -0.307   31 -0.333   31 -0.320   31 0.4505   22  0.989   31 -0.380   29 -0.260

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS       65 41 345 300  0.019 53.714    5  0.242    5  0.209    6  0.140    5 0.5312   10  1.078    8  0.185   10  0.095
PENGUINS       53 41 314 284 -0.012 46.562    9  0.096    8  0.097   10  0.085    8 0.5154    3  1.176    3  0.252   23 -0.082
BLUE JACKETS   47 41 260 254 -0.009 43.818   12  0.042   12  0.047   17  0.002   12 0.5083   23  0.972   18 -0.078   12  0.082
DEVILS         45 42 260 262 -0.006 43.466   17  0.022   17  0.021   18 -0.023   16 0.5044   15  1.050   15 -0.012   16 -0.034
FLYERS         44 44 266 271 -0.013 43.741   19  0.001   19 -0.012   19 -0.035   19 0.4991   11  1.069   14 -0.001   21 -0.069
HURRICANES     36 46 228 256 -0.022 40.579   22 -0.099   22 -0.115   20 -0.092   22 0.4834   18  1.031   20 -0.104   22 -0.081
ISLANDERS      35 47 264 296 -0.021 40.692   23 -0.126   23 -0.135   23 -0.145   23 0.4805    1  1.329    7  0.222   31 -0.513
RANGERS        34 48 231 268 -0.020 40.711   25 -0.150   25 -0.154   25 -0.155   24 0.4776    9  1.079   21 -0.108   27 -0.201

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      331 284 0.538    1  0.116
PACIFIC DIVISION      337 357 0.486    2 -0.022
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 359 350 0.506    3 -0.036
ATLANTIC DIVISION     328 364 0.474    4 -0.088

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.119 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec 28 14:05:51 2024
games through: Thu Jun  7 2018

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