Biggest Surprise: Loyola Chicago to Final Four (1.22%)

Similar to last year's biggest surprise, Loyola's tournament run had about a 1-in-80 chance of happening. Here is a breakdown of the combination of upset wins and help needed to make this happen:

  1. Loyola mostly made its own luck, scoring upsets in every round. Odds of defeating their opponents were 46%, 30%, 44%, and 47%, respectively - no shocking upsets but less than a 3% chance of winning all four.
  2. At the start of the tournament, Loyola's odds of winning its sweet sixteen and elite eight matchups were much lower (30% and 24%) respectively. However, UMBC's upset of Virginia in the first round (the tournament's second biggest surprise, a 1-in-45 event), Nevada's upset of Cincinnati in the second round, and Kansas State's upset of Kentucky in the sweet sixteen resulted in Loyola getting games that were effectively coin flip likelihoods.
So while Loyola received some help, they helped themselves more with four straight upsets.

Number of Upsets

Are there more upsets in the NCAA tournament than if these were just regular season games? For this analysis, "upset" is defined by a team with less than 50% chance (as calculated below) winning its game (generally the same as the betting underdog) rather than based on committee seeding. (Counting by seeds, there would have been two more upsets than the numbers below report.)

  1. First Four: 1.7 predicted, 2 actual
  2. First Round: 8.1 predicted, 8 actual
  3. Second Round: 4.9 predicted, 5 actual
  4. Sweet Sixteen: 2.8 predicted, 4 actual
  5. Elite Eight: 1.5 predicted, 2 actual
  6. Final Four: 0.6 predicted, 0 actual
  7. Championship: 0.3 predicted, 0 actual
  8. Grand Total: 20.0 predicted, 21 actual
For this tournament, the number of upsets exceeded the expected number of upsets by 0.1, which translates to a 0.02-sigma result (51st percentile on a bell curve). For the last four tournaments combined, there were a total of 80 upsets, compared with an expected 79.8 upsets. The difference is 0.02 sigma, which falls at the 51st percentile. Over the four seasons, the number of upsets as a function of likelihood of the upset happening breaks down as follows.

Likelihood# GamesExpected
# Upsets		Actual
# Upsets		Sigma
0-5%220.621.9
5-10%100.810.2
10-15%222.80-1.7
15-20%193.32-0.7
20-25%255.65-0.2
25-30%205.670.6
30-35%3712.07-1.5
35-40%2810.5151.4
40-45%4117.6190.3
45-50%4420.9230.5

Odds of Advancing to Round, April 1

Champion 
*66.67% VILLANOVA
 33.33% MICHIGAN

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 26

Finals Champion 
*72.77% MICHIGAN
*67.59% VILLANOVA
 32.41% KANSAS
 27.23% LOYOLA-CHICAGO

*48.08% VILLANOVA
 28.85% MICHIGAN
 17.71% KANSAS
  5.36% LOYOLA-CHICAGO

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 24

Final Four Finals Champion 
*69.36% VILLANOVA
*66.53% MICHIGAN
 63.56% DUKE
 52.64% KANSAS STATE
*47.36% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
*36.44% KANSAS
 33.47% FLORIDA STATE
 30.64% TEXAS TECH

*48.57% MICHIGAN
*40.81% VILLANOVA
 33.09% DUKE
 19.21% FLORIDA STATE
 17.54% KANSAS STATE
 14.68% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
 14.12% KANSAS
 11.99% TEXAS TECH

*30.16% VILLANOVA
 23.38% DUKE
 19.93% MICHIGAN
  8.23% KANSAS
  6.73% TEXAS TECH
  4.98% FLORIDA STATE
  3.73% KANSAS STATE
  2.85% LOYOLA-CHICAGO

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 19

Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
*83.67% DUKE
*67.32% VILLANOVA
*65.46% MICHIGAN
 64.84% KENTUCKY
 64.02% GONZAGA
 62.67% PURDUE
*57.21% KANSAS
 56.13% NEVADA
*43.87% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
 42.79% CLEMSON
*37.33% TEXAS TECH
*35.98% FLORIDA STATE
*35.16% KANSAS STATE
 34.54% TEXAS A&M
 32.68% WEST VIRGINIA
 16.33% SYRACUSE

 56.78% DUKE
*43.54% VILLANOVA
 41.21% KENTUCKY
*38.40% MICHIGAN
 33.09% GONZAGA
 28.52% PURDUE
 24.85% NEVADA
*23.46% KANSAS
 17.11% KANSAS STATE
*16.83% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
 15.47% WEST VIRGINIA
 14.91% TEXAS A&M
 14.80% CLEMSON
 13.60% FLORIDA STATE
 12.47% TEXAS TECH
  4.96% SYRACUSE

 32.07% DUKE
*26.23% VILLANOVA
*24.96% MICHIGAN
 20.35% GONZAGA
 20.08% KENTUCKY
 14.35% PURDUE
  9.73% KANSAS
  9.43% NEVADA
  7.41% TEXAS A&M
  6.68% WEST VIRGINIA
  6.47% FLORIDA STATE
  5.86% KANSAS STATE
  5.44% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
  5.14% CLEMSON
  4.75% TEXAS TECH
  1.06% SYRACUSE

 23.31% DUKE
*19.48% VILLANOVA
 10.11% MICHIGAN
  9.38% PURDUE
  7.53% GONZAGA
  6.78% KENTUCKY
  5.72% KANSAS
  3.90% WEST VIRGINIA
  2.66% CLEMSON
  2.53% TEXAS TECH
  2.31% NEVADA
  1.97% TEXAS A&M
  1.60% FLORIDA STATE
  1.26% KANSAS STATE
  1.09% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
  0.38% SYRACUSE

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 17

Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
*84.02% DUKE
*83.94% WEST VIRGINIA
*83.77% VILLANOVA
*81.45% KANSAS STATE
 75.49% MICHIGAN STATE
 73.24% CINCINNATI
 70.42% TENNESSEE
 70.23% NORTH CAROLINA
*69.65% KENTUCKY
*66.44% PURDUE
*66.00% KANSAS
 62.07% XAVIER
*57.44% MICHIGAN
*56.76% TEXAS TECH
*54.44% GONZAGA
*50.76% CLEMSON
 49.24% AUBURN
 45.56% OHIO STATE
 43.24% FLORIDA
 42.56% HOUSTON
*37.93% FLORIDA STATE
 34.00% SETON HALL
 33.56% BUTLER
 30.35% BUFFALO
*29.77% TEXAS A&M
*29.58% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
*26.76% NEVADA
*24.51% SYRACUSE
 18.55% UMBC
 16.23% ALABAMA
 16.06% MARSHALL
 15.98% RHODE ISLAND

*59.35% VILLANOVA
*54.93% DUKE
 47.53% CINCINNATI
 46.43% KENTUCKY
 43.72% PURDUE
*41.40% KANSAS
 37.83% NORTH CAROLINA
*36.19% KANSAS STATE
 34.82% MICHIGAN STATE
 33.19% TENNESSEE
 33.04% WEST VIRGINIA
*31.79% MICHIGAN
 31.00% GONZAGA
 30.80% XAVIER
*24.11% TEXAS TECH
 23.95% OHIO STATE
 21.90% CLEMSON
 20.89% AUBURN
 20.46% HOUSTON
 16.57% BUTLER
 15.81% SETON HALL
 15.60% FLORIDA
 14.48% BUFFALO
*14.26% FLORIDA STATE
 11.06% NEVADA
  9.92% TEXAS A&M
* 8.23% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
  5.71% ALABAMA
  5.64% SYRACUSE
  4.61% RHODE ISLAND
  2.90% UMBC
  1.90% MARSHALL

*39.56% VILLANOVA
 38.50% DUKE
 33.56% CINCINNATI
 22.42% NORTH CAROLINA
 22.00% PURDUE
 21.29% MICHIGAN STATE
 20.78% KENTUCKY
 20.65% TENNESSEE
*18.62% MICHIGAN
*18.28% KANSAS
 16.61% WEST VIRGINIA
 15.02% GONZAGA
 14.19% XAVIER
 12.20% KANSAS STATE
 10.55% OHIO STATE
 10.48% HOUSTON
  9.11% TEXAS TECH
  7.15% CLEMSON
  6.68% AUBURN
  5.74% BUTLER
  5.26% NEVADA
  4.97% FLORIDA
  4.90% FLORIDA STATE
  4.64% SETON HALL
  3.83% BUFFALO
  3.82% TEXAS A&M
* 3.43% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
  1.95% SYRACUSE
  1.69% ALABAMA
  1.50% RHODE ISLAND
  0.32% MARSHALL
  0.29% UMBC

*24.71% VILLANOVA
 22.17% DUKE
 19.90% CINCINNATI
 12.93% NORTH CAROLINA
 12.01% PURDUE
*10.61% MICHIGAN
 10.33% TENNESSEE
 10.24% MICHIGAN STATE
  9.52% KENTUCKY
  8.21% KANSAS
  7.86% GONZAGA
  7.65% WEST VIRGINIA
  7.10% XAVIER
  5.22% HOUSTON
  5.07% OHIO STATE
  4.20% KANSAS STATE
  3.81% TEXAS TECH
  2.38% CLEMSON
  2.21% BUTLER
  2.18% AUBURN
  1.88% FLORIDA STATE
  1.86% NEVADA
  1.76% FLORIDA
  1.43% TEXAS A&M
  1.39% SETON HALL
  1.03% BUFFALO
  1.02% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
  0.46% SYRACUSE
  0.45% ALABAMA
  0.33% RHODE ISLAND
  0.05% MARSHALL
  0.03% UMBC

*17.05% VILLANOVA
 14.83% DUKE
  9.64% CINCINNATI
  7.38% PURDUE
  5.90% MICHIGAN STATE
  5.80% NORTH CAROLINA
  4.69% MICHIGAN
  4.47% KANSAS
  4.07% TENNESSEE
  4.04% WEST VIRGINIA
  3.37% KENTUCKY
  3.11% GONZAGA
  2.65% XAVIER
  1.94% HOUSTON
  1.84% TEXAS TECH
  1.80% OHIO STATE
  1.07% KANSAS STATE
  1.00% CLEMSON
  0.99% BUTLER
  0.90% AUBURN
  0.74% FLORIDA
  0.53% SETON HALL
  0.50% FLORIDA STATE
  0.48% NEVADA
  0.37% TEXAS A&M
  0.22% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
  0.20% BUFFALO
  0.15% SYRACUSE
  0.14% ALABAMA
  0.10% RHODE ISLAND
  0.01% MARSHALL
  0.00% UMBC

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 15

Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
 97.84% VIRGINIA
*97.41% VILLANOVA
*96.34% XAVIER
*95.62% DUKE
*95.09% PURDUE
*94.50% NORTH CAROLINA
*88.23% TENNESSEE
*88.10% CINCINNATI
*88.08% KANSAS
*87.27% MICHIGAN STATE
*84.36% TEXAS TECH
*83.91% AUBURN
*83.08% MICHIGAN
*81.43% GONZAGA
 79.15% WICHITA STATE
*78.79% WEST VIRGINIA
*76.92% OHIO STATE
 70.31% ARIZONA
*68.53% CLEMSON
*67.09% FLORIDA
*65.96% HOUSTON
*64.35% KENTUCKY
 62.87% TCU
*59.19% TEXAS A&M
 57.97% CREIGHTON
*56.96% BUTLER
 55.59% VIRGINIA TECH
*54.54% SETON HALL
 53.76% MIAMI
 51.91% OKLAHOMA
*50.84% NEVADA
*50.68% FLORIDA STATE
 49.32% MISSOURI
 49.16% TEXAS
*48.09% RHODE ISLAND
*46.24% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
 45.46% NC STATE
*44.41% ALABAMA
 43.04% ARKANSAS
*42.03% KANSAS STATE
 40.81% PROVIDENCE
*37.13% SYRACUSE
 35.65% DAVIDSON
 34.04% SAN DIEGO STATE
 32.91% ST. BONAVENTURE
 31.47% NEW MEXICO STATE
*29.69% BUFFALO
 23.08% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
 21.21% MURRAY ST
*20.85% MARSHALL
 18.57% UNC GREENSBORO
 16.92% MONTANA
 16.09% CHARLESTON
 15.64% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
 12.73% BUCKNELL
 11.92% PENNSYLVANIA
 11.90% GEORGIA STATE
 11.77% WRIGHT STATE
  5.50% LIPSCOMB
  4.91% CS FULLERTON
  4.38% IONA
  3.66% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  2.59% RADFORD
* 2.16% UMBC

*80.62% DUKE
*80.09% VILLANOVA
 78.53% VIRGINIA
 69.75% NORTH CAROLINA
*67.66% PURDUE
 65.36% CINCINNATI
 63.42% XAVIER
 62.45% MICHIGAN STATE
*60.63% KANSAS
 59.62% TENNESSEE
*53.65% TEXAS TECH
*51.55% WEST VIRGINIA
*50.91% MICHIGAN
*49.85% GONZAGA
 47.74% AUBURN
*39.15% KENTUCKY
 39.06% OHIO STATE
*37.30% CLEMSON
 36.76% WICHITA STATE
 35.25% ARIZONA
 32.88% HOUSTON
 31.84% FLORIDA
 23.83% TCU
 21.06% MIAMI
 20.86% SETON HALL
 19.47% BUTLER
*19.12% TEXAS A&M
*18.54% FLORIDA STATE
 17.74% MISSOURI
 16.66% DAVIDSON
*16.58% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
*15.98% NEVADA
 15.58% NC STATE
 15.12% TEXAS
 13.63% CREIGHTON
 12.19% ARKANSAS
 11.86% SAN DIEGO STATE
 11.75% VIRGINIA TECH
 11.51% NEW MEXICO STATE
 10.42% ST. BONAVENTURE
 10.18% PROVIDENCE
*10.04% SYRACUSE
  9.80% OKLAHOMA
  8.94% BUFFALO
  8.51% RHODE ISLAND
  7.77% ALABAMA
  7.60% MURRAY ST
* 7.57% KANSAS STATE
  5.79% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  5.30% UNC GREENSBORO
  4.35% MONTANA
  4.09% MARSHALL
  4.08% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
  3.69% BUCKNELL
  3.54% GEORGIA STATE
  3.45% CHARLESTON
  2.94% PENNSYLVANIA
  2.74% WRIGHT STATE
  1.06% IONA
  0.94% LIPSCOMB
  0.68% CS FULLERTON
  0.40% RADFORD
  0.31% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.27% UMBC

 60.60% VIRGINIA
*58.46% VILLANOVA
*53.30% DUKE
 45.71% PURDUE
 44.41% CINCINNATI
 40.45% NORTH CAROLINA
*39.24% KANSAS
 33.42% XAVIER
 30.54% MICHIGAN STATE
 29.27% GONZAGA
 28.78% TENNESSEE
*28.14% MICHIGAN
*24.43% TEXAS TECH
 22.41% AUBURN
 20.91% OHIO STATE
 20.67% WEST VIRGINIA
 17.11% CLEMSON
 16.27% HOUSTON
 13.54% KENTUCKY
 11.99% FLORIDA
 11.50% WICHITA STATE
 10.70% ARIZONA
  9.99% SETON HALL
  9.62% BUTLER
  7.82% TCU
  7.09% TEXAS A&M
  7.03% NEVADA
  7.01% MIAMI
* 6.95% FLORIDA STATE
  6.78% NC STATE
  6.74% CREIGHTON
  6.54% MISSOURI
  6.53% TEXAS
  5.20% ARKANSAS
* 5.00% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
  4.85% VIRGINIA TECH
  4.07% SAN DIEGO STATE
  3.83% DAVIDSON
  3.29% NEW MEXICO STATE
* 3.16% KANSAS STATE
  2.96% OKLAHOMA
  2.95% PROVIDENCE
  2.80% ALABAMA
  2.43% RHODE ISLAND
  2.40% ST. BONAVENTURE
  2.30% SYRACUSE
  1.53% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  1.40% BUFFALO
  1.36% UNC GREENSBORO
  1.23% MURRAY ST
  0.95% MONTANA
  0.89% GEORGIA STATE
  0.65% PENNSYLVANIA
  0.57% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
  0.53% BUCKNELL
  0.53% CHARLESTON
  0.45% MARSHALL
  0.34% WRIGHT STATE
  0.12% IONA
  0.09% CS FULLERTON
  0.08% LIPSCOMB
  0.04% RADFORD
  0.03% UMBC
  0.02% TEXAS SOUTHERN

 41.93% VIRGINIA
*39.49% VILLANOVA
 38.16% DUKE
 24.49% NORTH CAROLINA
 23.39% PURDUE
 22.80% CINCINNATI
 19.60% MICHIGAN STATE
*17.35% KANSAS
*16.47% MICHIGAN
 15.90% XAVIER
 14.76% GONZAGA
 11.78% TENNESSEE
 10.56% WEST VIRGINIA
  9.79% TEXAS TECH
  9.45% OHIO STATE
  8.56% HOUSTON
  7.56% AUBURN
  6.40% KENTUCKY
  5.61% CLEMSON
  4.75% WICHITA STATE
  4.54% ARIZONA
  3.91% FLORIDA
  3.66% TCU
  3.22% BUTLER
  2.86% SETON HALL
  2.79% TEXAS A&M
  2.74% CREIGHTON
  2.27% FLORIDA STATE
  2.09% MISSOURI
  2.02% NEVADA
  1.89% MIAMI
  1.84% TEXAS
  1.71% VIRGINIA TECH
  1.70% NC STATE
  1.49% SAN DIEGO STATE
  1.44% ARKANSAS
  1.29% DAVIDSON
* 1.21% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
  1.05% KANSAS STATE
  1.03% OKLAHOMA
  0.91% PROVIDENCE
  0.85% ALABAMA
  0.81% RHODE ISLAND
  0.79% SYRACUSE
  0.60% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.46% ST. BONAVENTURE
  0.34% BUFFALO
  0.31% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.28% MURRAY ST
  0.27% UNC GREENSBORO
  0.22% MONTANA
  0.13% GEORGIA STATE
  0.12% BUCKNELL
  0.07% MARSHALL
  0.07% PENNSYLVANIA
  0.07% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
  0.05% CHARLESTON
  0.03% WRIGHT STATE
  0.02% IONA
  0.01% LIPSCOMB
  0.01% CS FULLERTON
  0.00% RADFORD
  0.00% UMBC
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN

 28.81% VIRGINIA
*24.54% VILLANOVA
 22.55% DUKE
 13.55% CINCINNATI
 12.55% PURDUE
 12.02% NORTH CAROLINA
 10.00% MICHIGAN STATE
  7.96% KANSAS
* 7.76% MICHIGAN
  6.58% XAVIER
  6.51% GONZAGA
  5.70% TENNESSEE
  4.80% WEST VIRGINIA
  4.15% TEXAS TECH
  3.70% OHIO STATE
  3.54% HOUSTON
  2.95% KENTUCKY
  2.66% AUBURN
  1.92% CLEMSON
  1.87% ARIZONA
  1.71% WICHITA STATE
  1.36% FLORIDA
  1.25% TCU
  1.14% BUTLER
  1.08% CREIGHTON
  0.86% SETON HALL
  0.82% TEXAS A&M
  0.71% NEVADA
  0.63% TEXAS
  0.63% FLORIDA STATE
  0.62% MIAMI
  0.57% MISSOURI
  0.52% VIRGINIA TECH
  0.45% NC STATE
  0.43% ARKANSAS
  0.42% DAVIDSON
  0.41% SAN DIEGO STATE
  0.36% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
  0.34% KANSAS STATE
  0.25% OKLAHOMA
  0.22% ALABAMA
  0.20% PROVIDENCE
  0.19% SYRACUSE
  0.18% RHODE ISLAND
  0.12% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.10% ST. BONAVENTURE
  0.08% BUFFALO
  0.05% MURRAY ST
  0.05% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.04% UNC GREENSBORO
  0.04% MONTANA
  0.02% GEORGIA STATE
  0.02% BUCKNELL
  0.01% MARSHALL
  0.01% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
  0.01% PENNSYLVANIA
  0.00% CHARLESTON
  0.00% WRIGHT STATE
  0.00% IONA
  0.00% LIPSCOMB
  0.00% CS FULLERTON
  0.00% RADFORD
  0.00% UMBC
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN

 16.90% VIRGINIA
*15.46% VILLANOVA
 13.88% DUKE
  6.84% PURDUE
  6.63% CINCINNATI
  5.54% NORTH CAROLINA
  5.35% MICHIGAN STATE
  3.85% KANSAS
  3.42% MICHIGAN
  2.68% GONZAGA
  2.52% XAVIER
  2.22% WEST VIRGINIA
  2.18% TENNESSEE
  1.79% TEXAS TECH
  1.36% HOUSTON
  1.34% OHIO STATE
  1.06% KENTUCKY
  1.00% AUBURN
  0.70% CLEMSON
  0.63% WICHITA STATE
  0.59% ARIZONA
  0.48% FLORIDA
  0.45% TCU
  0.41% BUTLER
  0.32% CREIGHTON
  0.28% SETON HALL
  0.22% TEXAS A&M
  0.18% NEVADA
  0.16% VIRGINIA TECH
  0.16% TEXAS
  0.15% FLORIDA STATE
  0.15% MIAMI
  0.14% MISSOURI
  0.13% ARKANSAS
  0.13% NC STATE
  0.10% DAVIDSON
  0.10% SAN DIEGO STATE
  0.08% KANSAS STATE
  0.08% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
  0.06% OKLAHOMA
  0.06% ALABAMA
  0.05% SYRACUSE
  0.04% RHODE ISLAND
  0.04% PROVIDENCE
  0.02% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.02% ST. BONAVENTURE
  0.01% BUFFALO
  0.01% MURRAY ST
  0.01% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.01% UNC GREENSBORO
  0.01% MONTANA
  0.00% GEORGIA STATE
  0.00% BUCKNELL
  0.00% MARSHALL
  0.00% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
  0.00% PENNSYLVANIA
  0.00% CHARLESTON
  0.00% WRIGHT STATE
  0.00% IONA
  0.00% CS FULLERTON
  0.00% LIPSCOMB
  0.00% RADFORD
  0.00% UMBC
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 13

First Round Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion 
*65.72% RADFORD
*62.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
 53.59% UCLA
 50.32% ARIZONA STATE
*49.68% SYRACUSE
*46.41% ST. BONAVENTURE
 38.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
 34.28% LIU BROOKLYN

*98.01% VILLANOVA
 97.82% VIRGINIA
*97.55% XAVIER
*95.55% DUKE
*95.09% PURDUE
*94.48% NORTH CAROLINA
*88.33% TENNESSEE
*88.08% KANSAS
*88.06% CINCINNATI
*87.29% MICHIGAN STATE
*84.42% TEXAS TECH
*83.83% AUBURN
*83.01% MICHIGAN
*81.75% GONZAGA
 79.30% WICHITA STATE
*78.87% WEST VIRGINIA
*76.55% OHIO STATE
 70.48% ARIZONA
*68.03% CLEMSON
*65.66% HOUSTON
*65.15% FLORIDA
 64.30% TCU
*64.19% KENTUCKY
*58.94% TEXAS A&M
 58.13% CREIGHTON
*57.21% BUTLER
 55.70% VIRGINIA TECH
*54.78% SETON HALL
 53.71% MIAMI
 51.80% OKLAHOMA
*51.09% NEVADA
*50.72% FLORIDA STATE
 49.28% MISSOURI
 48.91% TEXAS
*48.20% RHODE ISLAND
*46.29% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
 45.22% NC STATE
*44.30% ALABAMA
 42.79% ARKANSAS
*41.87% KANSAS STATE
 41.06% PROVIDENCE
 35.81% DAVIDSON
 34.34% SAN DIEGO STATE
 31.97% NEW MEXICO STATE
*29.52% BUFFALO
 23.45% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
 21.13% MURRAY ST
*20.70% MARSHALL
 19.50% UCLA
 18.25% UNC GREENSBORO
 18.04% ARIZONA STATE
*17.66% SYRACUSE
 16.99% MONTANA
 16.17% CHARLESTON
 15.58% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
 15.35% ST. BONAVENTURE
 12.71% BUCKNELL
 11.94% GEORGIA STATE
 11.92% PENNSYLVANIA
 11.67% WRIGHT STATE
  5.52% LIPSCOMB
  4.91% CS FULLERTON
  4.45% IONA
* 2.18% UMBC
  1.89% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  1.68% RADFORD
  0.56% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
  0.32% LIU BROOKLYN

*80.74% VILLANOVA
*80.60% DUKE
 78.39% VIRGINIA
 69.69% NORTH CAROLINA
*67.74% PURDUE
 65.18% CINCINNATI
 64.43% XAVIER
 62.76% MICHIGAN STATE
*60.53% KANSAS
 59.58% TENNESSEE
*53.50% TEXAS TECH
*51.65% WEST VIRGINIA
*51.01% MICHIGAN
*50.09% GONZAGA
 47.64% AUBURN
*38.88% KENTUCKY
 38.81% OHIO STATE
*37.03% CLEMSON
 36.76% WICHITA STATE
 35.53% ARIZONA
 32.59% HOUSTON
 30.86% FLORIDA
 24.30% TCU
 21.08% MIAMI
 21.06% SETON HALL
 19.55% BUTLER
*19.05% TEXAS A&M
*18.12% FLORIDA STATE
 17.28% MISSOURI
 16.69% DAVIDSON
*16.65% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
*16.20% NEVADA
 15.48% NC STATE
 15.08% TEXAS
 13.77% CREIGHTON
 12.03% ARKANSAS
 11.99% SAN DIEGO STATE
 11.86% NEW MEXICO STATE
 11.48% VIRGINIA TECH
 10.32% PROVIDENCE
  9.76% OKLAHOMA
  8.91% BUFFALO
  8.54% RHODE ISLAND
* 7.57% KANSAS STATE
  7.57% MURRAY ST
  7.50% ALABAMA
  6.78% UCLA
  5.96% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  5.14% UNC GREENSBORO
  4.87% ST. BONAVENTURE
  4.68% ARIZONA STATE
* 4.53% SYRACUSE
  4.40% MONTANA
  4.02% MARSHALL
  4.00% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
  3.73% BUCKNELL
  3.55% GEORGIA STATE
  3.47% CHARLESTON
  2.93% PENNSYLVANIA
  2.69% WRIGHT STATE
  1.09% IONA
  0.94% LIPSCOMB
  0.68% CS FULLERTON
  0.27% UMBC
  0.26% RADFORD
  0.14% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.02% LIU BROOKLYN
  0.02% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

 60.46% VIRGINIA
*59.05% VILLANOVA
*53.23% DUKE
 45.89% PURDUE
 44.31% CINCINNATI
 40.32% NORTH CAROLINA
*39.25% KANSAS
 33.94% XAVIER
 30.75% MICHIGAN STATE
 29.37% GONZAGA
 28.71% TENNESSEE
*28.31% MICHIGAN
*24.26% TEXAS TECH
 22.30% AUBURN
 20.72% OHIO STATE
 20.52% WEST VIRGINIA
 16.94% CLEMSON
 16.13% HOUSTON
 13.42% KENTUCKY
 11.54% FLORIDA
 11.35% WICHITA STATE
 10.85% ARIZONA
 10.16% SETON HALL
  9.69% BUTLER
  7.97% TCU
  7.18% NEVADA
  7.04% TEXAS A&M
  7.02% MIAMI
  6.84% CREIGHTON
* 6.76% FLORIDA STATE
  6.75% NC STATE
  6.53% TEXAS
  6.33% MISSOURI
  5.12% ARKANSAS
* 5.03% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
  4.73% VIRGINIA TECH
  4.15% SAN DIEGO STATE
  3.85% DAVIDSON
  3.43% NEW MEXICO STATE
* 3.15% KANSAS STATE
  3.00% PROVIDENCE
  2.93% OKLAHOMA
  2.69% ALABAMA
  2.44% RHODE ISLAND
  1.74% UCLA
  1.59% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  1.40% BUFFALO
  1.29% UNC GREENSBORO
  1.20% MURRAY ST
  1.12% ST. BONAVENTURE
  1.03% ARIZONA STATE
  0.99% SYRACUSE
  0.97% MONTANA
  0.89% GEORGIA STATE
  0.65% PENNSYLVANIA
  0.56% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
  0.54% BUCKNELL
  0.53% CHARLESTON
  0.43% MARSHALL
  0.33% WRIGHT STATE
  0.13% IONA
  0.09% CS FULLERTON
  0.08% LIPSCOMB
  0.03% UMBC
  0.03% RADFORD
  0.01% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% LIU BROOKLYN
  0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

 41.87% VIRGINIA
*39.92% VILLANOVA
 38.17% DUKE
 24.29% NORTH CAROLINA
 23.44% PURDUE
 22.74% CINCINNATI
 19.79% MICHIGAN STATE
*17.31% KANSAS
*16.55% MICHIGAN
 16.21% XAVIER
 14.88% GONZAGA
 11.72% TENNESSEE
 10.47% WEST VIRGINIA
  9.66% TEXAS TECH
  9.41% OHIO STATE
  8.43% HOUSTON
  7.48% AUBURN
  6.34% KENTUCKY
  5.52% CLEMSON
  4.67% WICHITA STATE
  4.64% ARIZONA
  3.74% TCU
  3.73% FLORIDA
  3.23% BUTLER
  2.92% SETON HALL
  2.79% CREIGHTON
  2.75% TEXAS A&M
  2.20% FLORIDA STATE
  2.08% NEVADA
  2.02% MISSOURI
  1.90% MIAMI
  1.84% TEXAS
  1.69% NC STATE
  1.66% VIRGINIA TECH
  1.52% SAN DIEGO STATE
  1.40% ARKANSAS
  1.30% DAVIDSON
* 1.22% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
  1.06% KANSAS STATE
  1.02% OKLAHOMA
  0.93% PROVIDENCE
  0.81% RHODE ISLAND
  0.81% ALABAMA
  0.64% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.38% UCLA
  0.34% ARIZONA STATE
  0.34% BUFFALO
  0.33% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.33% SYRACUSE
  0.27% MURRAY ST
  0.25% UNC GREENSBORO
  0.23% MONTANA
  0.21% ST. BONAVENTURE
  0.13% GEORGIA STATE
  0.12% BUCKNELL
  0.07% PENNSYLVANIA
  0.07% MARSHALL
  0.06% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
  0.05% CHARLESTON
  0.03% WRIGHT STATE
  0.02% IONA
  0.01% LIPSCOMB
  0.01% CS FULLERTON
  0.00% UMBC
  0.00% RADFORD
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% LIU BROOKLYN
  0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

 28.73% VIRGINIA
*24.85% VILLANOVA
 22.49% DUKE
 13.48% CINCINNATI
 12.60% PURDUE
 11.92% NORTH CAROLINA
 10.08% MICHIGAN STATE
  7.90% KANSAS
* 7.83% MICHIGAN
  6.75% XAVIER
  6.61% GONZAGA
  5.65% TENNESSEE
  4.75% WEST VIRGINIA
  4.08% TEXAS TECH
  3.71% OHIO STATE
  3.49% HOUSTON
  2.91% KENTUCKY
  2.61% AUBURN
  1.92% ARIZONA
  1.87% CLEMSON
  1.68% WICHITA STATE
  1.29% FLORIDA
  1.27% TCU
  1.15% BUTLER
  1.10% CREIGHTON
  0.88% SETON HALL
  0.81% TEXAS A&M
  0.73% NEVADA
  0.62% TEXAS
  0.62% MIAMI
  0.61% FLORIDA STATE
  0.55% MISSOURI
  0.50% VIRGINIA TECH
  0.44% NC STATE
  0.42% DAVIDSON
  0.42% SAN DIEGO STATE
  0.41% ARKANSAS
  0.36% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
  0.34% KANSAS STATE
  0.24% OKLAHOMA
  0.21% PROVIDENCE
  0.21% ALABAMA
  0.18% RHODE ISLAND
  0.12% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.09% UCLA
  0.08% BUFFALO
  0.08% ARIZONA STATE
  0.07% SYRACUSE
  0.06% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.05% MURRAY ST
  0.04% ST. BONAVENTURE
  0.04% UNC GREENSBORO
  0.04% MONTANA
  0.02% GEORGIA STATE
  0.02% BUCKNELL
  0.01% MARSHALL
  0.01% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
  0.01% PENNSYLVANIA
  0.00% CHARLESTON
  0.00% WRIGHT STATE
  0.00% IONA
  0.00% LIPSCOMB
  0.00% CS FULLERTON
  0.00% UMBC
  0.00% RADFORD
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% LIU BROOKLYN
  0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

 16.79% VIRGINIA
*15.70% VILLANOVA
 13.86% DUKE
  6.90% PURDUE
  6.56% CINCINNATI
  5.46% NORTH CAROLINA
  5.41% MICHIGAN STATE
  3.82% KANSAS
  3.45% MICHIGAN
  2.72% GONZAGA
  2.59% XAVIER
  2.20% WEST VIRGINIA
  2.14% TENNESSEE
  1.76% TEXAS TECH
  1.34% OHIO STATE
  1.33% HOUSTON
  1.04% KENTUCKY
  0.98% AUBURN
  0.68% CLEMSON
  0.61% WICHITA STATE
  0.61% ARIZONA
  0.46% TCU
  0.45% FLORIDA
  0.42% BUTLER
  0.33% CREIGHTON
  0.28% SETON HALL
  0.21% TEXAS A&M
  0.19% NEVADA
  0.16% TEXAS
  0.15% VIRGINIA TECH
  0.15% FLORIDA STATE
  0.15% MIAMI
  0.13% MISSOURI
  0.12% NC STATE
  0.12% ARKANSAS
  0.10% SAN DIEGO STATE
  0.10% DAVIDSON
  0.08% KANSAS STATE
  0.08% LOYOLA-CHICAGO
  0.06% OKLAHOMA
  0.05% ALABAMA
  0.04% RHODE ISLAND
  0.04% PROVIDENCE
  0.03% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.02% UCLA
  0.02% ARIZONA STATE
  0.02% SYRACUSE
  0.01% BUFFALO
  0.01% MURRAY ST
  0.01% ST. BONAVENTURE
  0.01% SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.01% UNC GREENSBORO
  0.01% MONTANA
  0.00% GEORGIA STATE
  0.00% BUCKNELL
  0.00% MARSHALL
  0.00% STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
  0.00% PENNSYLVANIA
  0.00% CHARLESTON
  0.00% WRIGHT STATE
  0.00% IONA
  0.00% CS FULLERTON
  0.00% LIPSCOMB
  0.00% RADFORD
  0.00% UMBC
  0.00% TEXAS SOUTHERN
  0.00% LIU BROOKLYN
  0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

Selection Notes The two obvious snubs this year were Louisville and Saint Mary's, both of whom had RPIs in the top 40 - ahead of Syracuse, UCLA, and Arizona State. Both were also ranked well ahead in my rankings (which give more emphasis on quality wins), as well as in my pairwise rankings (which are tuned based on previous committee selections). Nebraska also deserved a berth based on record and quality of competition, but their poor RPI ranking probably kept them out (though it is curious Arizona State's even worse RPI did not).

Looking at seedings, the top five seeds were close to historical precedents. Florida received a little bit of a gift with its #6 seed, as did Missouri with its #8 and Alabama with its #9. Kansas State and Providence were the outliers in the other direction.

* Denotes team advanced
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copyright ©2017 Andrew Dolphin