Biggest Surprise: Chalk (0.49%)

Normally, I use this area to highlight a team's surprising run against the odds, such as Loyola's run in 2018, South Carolina in 2017, etc. However, this year's tournament was surprising for a different reason - the favorites mostly won. Here are two numbers that stand out:

  1. All sixteen favorites (determined per my rankings) won in the second round. With all underdogs having more than a 12.5% (one-in-eight) chance of winning, the likelihood of all sixteen losing was a mere 0.49%.
  2. There were 22 games played in which the underdog had less than a 23% chance of winning. The underdog went 0-for-22 in those games, a 6.6% likelihood.
For comparison, the least probable run by a team this year [as of the semifinal] was Texas Tech's championship game appearance (5.97% probability).


Number of Upsets

Are there more upsets in the NCAA tournament than if these were just regular season games? For this analysis, "upset" is defined by a team with less than 50% chance (as calculated below) winning its game (generally the same as the betting underdog) rather than based on committee seeding.

  1. First Four: 1.6 predicted, 0 actual
  2. First Round: 7.6 predicted, 11 actual
  3. Second Round: 4.4 predicted, 5 actual
  4. Sweet Sixteen: 2.7 predicted, 2 actual
  5. Elite Eight: 1.7 predicted, 2 actual
  6. Final Four: 0.8 predicted, 1 actual
  7. Championship: 0.5 predicted, 0 actual
  8. Grand Total: 19.2 predicted, 16 actual
For this tournament, the number of upsets was below the expected number of upsets by 3.2. For the last five tournaments combined, there were a total of 97 upsets, compared with an expected 99.0 upsets. The difference is -0.2 sigma, which falls at the 42nd percentile on a bell curve. Over these seasons, the number of upsets as a function of likelihood of the upset happening breaks down as follows. There is no clear indication that upsets are more or less likely than predicted (with predictions based primarily on regular-season results).

Likelihood# GamesExpected
# Upsets
Actual
# Upsets
Sigma
0-5%280.721.6
5-10%141.11-0.1
10-15%253.20-1.9
15-20%264.62-1.3
20-25%317.070.0
25-30%257.070.0
30-35%5116.612-1.4
35-40%3111.7161.6
40-45%4720.1210.3
45-50%5727.0290.5
Total33599.097-0.2


Odds of Advancing to Round, April 7

Champion
*52.91% VIRGINIA
 47.09% TEXAS TECH


Odds of Advancing to Round, April 1

Finals Champion
*67.68% VIRGINIA
 54.01% MICHIGAN STATE
*45.99% TEXAS TECH
 32.32% AUBURN
*36.94% VIRGINIA
 28.64% MICHIGAN STATE
 22.59% TEXAS TECH
 11.82% AUBURN


Odds of Advancing to Round, March 30

Final Four Finals Champion
 63.09% GONZAGA
*61.73% VIRGINIA
 57.84% KENTUCKY
*51.82% MICHIGAN STATE
 48.18% DUKE
*42.16% AUBURN
 38.27% PURDUE
*36.91% TEXAS TECH
*39.17% VIRGINIA
 37.74% GONZAGA
 25.55% KENTUCKY
 23.80% MICHIGAN STATE
 21.28% DUKE
 19.85% PURDUE
*17.19% TEXAS TECH
 15.43% AUBURN
 23.90% GONZAGA
*19.91% VIRGINIA
 13.01% MICHIGAN STATE
 11.25% DUKE
 10.36% KENTUCKY
  8.67% TEXAS TECH
  7.78% PURDUE
  5.12% AUBURN


Odds of Advancing to Round, March 25

Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion
*81.14% VIRGINIA
*75.62% GONZAGA
*75.08% MICHIGAN STATE
*67.09% DUKE
 66.05% NORTH CAROLINA
*58.88% KENTUCKY
*55.06% PURDUE
 53.83% MICHIGAN
*46.17% TEXAS TECH
 44.94% TENNESSEE
 41.12% HOUSTON
*33.95% AUBURN
 32.91% VIRGINIA TECH
 24.92% LSU
 24.38% FLORIDA STATE
 18.86% OREGON
*53.80% VIRGINIA
 48.89% GONZAGA
*41.89% MICHIGAN STATE
 38.69% NORTH CAROLINA
 37.62% DUKE
 29.76% KENTUCKY
 23.48% MICHIGAN
 23.23% PURDUE
*18.48% TEXAS TECH
 17.19% HOUSTON
 16.88% TENNESSEE
*14.36% AUBURN
 12.94% VIRGINIA TECH
  9.15% FLORIDA STATE
  7.55% LSU
  6.09% OREGON
*33.88% VIRGINIA
 30.65% GONZAGA
 20.88% MICHIGAN STATE
 19.95% NORTH CAROLINA
 18.68% DUKE
 13.90% KENTUCKY
 11.73% MICHIGAN
 11.34% PURDUE
* 8.55% TEXAS TECH
  7.40% TENNESSEE
  6.57% HOUSTON
  5.16% AUBURN
  4.28% VIRGINIA TECH
  3.31% FLORIDA STATE
  1.92% LSU
  1.79% OREGON
 19.14% GONZAGA
*18.84% VIRGINIA
 11.25% MICHIGAN STATE
 10.04% DUKE
  9.71% NORTH CAROLINA
  6.09% KENTUCKY
  5.83% MICHIGAN
  4.70% PURDUE
  3.93% TEXAS TECH
  2.71% TENNESSEE
  2.32% HOUSTON
  1.71% AUBURN
  1.57% VIRGINIA TECH
  1.19% FLORIDA STATE
  0.55% LSU
  0.42% OREGON


Odds of Advancing to Round, March 23

Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion
*87.24% GONZAGA
*83.98% VIRGINIA
*83.04% DUKE
*82.44% NORTH CAROLINA
*81.69% VIRGINIA TECH
*81.42% MICHIGAN STATE
*72.34% MICHIGAN
*71.38% TENNESSEE
*70.30% HOUSTON
*69.53% OREGON
*69.38% PURDUE
*69.02% FLORIDA STATE
*68.88% KENTUCKY
*63.83% TEXAS TECH
*53.13% AUBURN
*51.70% LSU
 48.30% MARYLAND
 46.87% KANSAS
 36.17% BUFFALO
 31.12% WOFFORD
 30.98% MURRAY STATE
 30.62% VILLANOVA
 30.47% UC IRVINE
 29.70% OHIO STATE
 28.62% IOWA
 27.66% FLORIDA
 18.58% MINNESOTA
 18.31% LIBERTY
 17.56% WASHINGTON
 16.96% UCF
 16.02% OKLAHOMA
 12.76% BAYLOR
*71.42% GONZAGA
*70.95% VIRGINIA
*60.94% MICHIGAN STATE
*60.17% DUKE
 55.58% NORTH CAROLINA
*45.53% KENTUCKY
 43.44% MICHIGAN
*40.39% PURDUE
 38.40% TENNESSEE
*32.65% TEXAS TECH
 31.90% HOUSTON
 31.08% VIRGINIA TECH
*21.36% AUBURN
 18.72% FLORIDA STATE
 17.52% KANSAS
 17.00% OREGON
 16.59% LSU
 14.82% MARYLAND
 14.76% WOFFORD
 13.64% BUFFALO
 11.90% VILLANOVA
 10.26% FLORIDA
  9.30% IOWA
  8.30% OKLAHOMA
  7.81% OHIO STATE
  7.65% MINNESOTA
  6.42% UCF
  5.54% WASHINGTON
  5.37% BAYLOR
  4.49% MURRAY STATE
  3.76% UC IRVINE
  2.33% LIBERTY
*50.30% VIRGINIA
 50.30% GONZAGA
 37.62% DUKE
*34.33% MICHIGAN STATE
 34.28% NORTH CAROLINA
 25.17% KENTUCKY
 19.65% MICHIGAN
 17.91% PURDUE
 16.27% TENNESSEE
 14.33% HOUSTON
 13.99% VIRGINIA TECH
*13.24% TEXAS TECH
* 9.78% AUBURN
  7.67% FLORIDA STATE
  7.49% KANSAS
  6.39% OREGON
  5.41% WOFFORD
  5.38% LSU
  4.60% MARYLAND
  3.93% BUFFALO
  3.28% VILLANOVA
  2.80% OKLAHOMA
  2.62% FLORIDA
  2.26% IOWA
  2.04% OHIO STATE
  1.89% MINNESOTA
  1.81% UCF
  1.51% BAYLOR
  1.51% WASHINGTON
  1.07% MURRAY STATE
  0.78% UC IRVINE
  0.39% LIBERTY
*33.15% VIRGINIA
 32.82% GONZAGA
 19.90% DUKE
 18.29% NORTH CAROLINA
 17.32% MICHIGAN STATE
 12.62% KENTUCKY
 10.03% MICHIGAN
  8.92% PURDUE
  7.75% TENNESSEE
* 6.10% TEXAS TECH
  5.74% HOUSTON
  4.96% VIRGINIA TECH
  3.71% AUBURN
  2.76% FLORIDA STATE
  2.64% KANSAS
  2.08% OREGON
  1.75% WOFFORD
  1.47% LSU
  1.30% BUFFALO
  1.20% MARYLAND
  1.01% VILLANOVA
  0.81% OKLAHOMA
  0.77% FLORIDA
  0.61% IOWA
  0.46% OHIO STATE
  0.38% MINNESOTA
  0.37% UCF
  0.37% BAYLOR
  0.32% WASHINGTON
  0.22% MURRAY STATE
  0.13% UC IRVINE
  0.04% LIBERTY
 21.38% GONZAGA
*18.56% VIRGINIA
 11.41% DUKE
  9.51% MICHIGAN STATE
  8.77% NORTH CAROLINA
  5.64% KENTUCKY
  5.10% MICHIGAN
  3.54% PURDUE
  2.92% TENNESSEE
  2.80% TEXAS TECH
  1.99% HOUSTON
  1.95% VIRGINIA TECH
  1.21% AUBURN
  0.99% FLORIDA STATE
  0.79% KANSAS
  0.50% OREGON
  0.48% WOFFORD
  0.45% LSU
  0.43% BUFFALO
  0.35% MARYLAND
  0.23% VILLANOVA
  0.23% FLORIDA
  0.17% OKLAHOMA
  0.12% IOWA
  0.09% MINNESOTA
  0.09% BAYLOR
  0.09% UCF
  0.08% OHIO STATE
  0.06% WASHINGTON
  0.04% MURRAY STATE
  0.02% UC IRVINE
  0.01% LIBERTY


Odds of Advancing to Round, March 21

Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion
*99.08% GONZAGA
*98.78% DUKE
*98.42% VIRGINIA
*98.31% NORTH CAROLINA
*97.51% MICHIGAN STATE
*95.28% KENTUCKY
*94.80% MICHIGAN
*92.19% PURDUE
*92.07% TENNESSEE
*90.15% TEXAS TECH
*86.79% HOUSTON
*86.04% VIRGINIA TECH
*82.17% FLORIDA STATE
*79.28% LSU
*78.48% KANSAS
 76.80% MISSISSIPPI STATE
 76.41% KANSAS STATE
*74.81% AUBURN
*71.37% BUFFALO
 66.76% IOWA STATE
 66.19% LOUISVILLE
*66.00% MARYLAND
 66.00% WISCONSIN
 65.85% MARQUETTE
*65.83% WOFFORD
 55.15% SYRACUSE
 54.91% VCU
 54.84% UTAH STATE
*54.05% VILLANOVA
 52.85% CINCINNATI
*51.52% OKLAHOMA
 50.19% NEVADA
*49.81% FLORIDA
 48.48% OLE MISS
*47.15% IOWA
 45.95% SAINT MARY'S
*45.16% WASHINGTON
*45.09% UCF
*44.85% BAYLOR
 34.17% SETON HALL
*34.15% MURRAY STATE
*34.00% OREGON
 34.00% BELMONT
*33.81% MINNESOTA
*33.24% OHIO STATE
 28.63% ARIZONA STATE
 25.19% NEW MEXICO STATE
*23.59% UC IRVINE
*23.20% LIBERTY
 21.52% NORTHEASTERN
 20.72% YALE
 17.83% VERMONT
 13.96% SAINT LOUIS
 13.21% GEORGIA STATE
  9.85% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  7.93% COLGATE
  7.81% OLD DOMINION
  5.20% MONTANA
  4.72% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
  2.49% BRADLEY
  1.69% IONA
  1.58% GARDNER-WEBB
  1.22% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.92% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
*87.04% VIRGINIA
*85.48% GONZAGA
*83.98% NORTH CAROLINA
*83.69% DUKE
*74.70% MICHIGAN STATE
*70.27% MICHIGAN
*69.51% KENTUCKY
*67.50% TENNESSEE
*65.67% PURDUE
*62.94% TEXAS TECH
*56.76% VIRGINIA TECH
*53.68% FLORIDA STATE
*51.04% HOUSTON
*47.81% AUBURN
*45.30% LSU
 40.84% WISCONSIN
 37.84% KANSAS STATE
 37.81% KANSAS
 35.91% MARYLAND
 34.60% MISSISSIPPI STATE
 34.52% IOWA STATE
 30.19% MARQUETTE
 28.50% BUFFALO
 22.45% WOFFORD
 19.22% LOUISVILLE
 18.57% VILLANOVA
 16.85% CINCINNATI
*15.75% OREGON
 14.54% NEVADA
 14.34% FLORIDA
 14.23% SAINT MARY'S
 13.94% IOWA
 13.24% BELMONT
 11.91% OHIO STATE
 10.69% MURRAY STATE
  9.81% NEW MEXICO STATE
  9.59% VCU
  9.34% UTAH STATE
  8.65% SYRACUSE
  7.32% SETON HALL
  6.72% OKLAHOMA
  6.58% UCF
  6.44% WASHINGTON
  6.28% ARIZONA STATE
  5.96% OLE MISS
  5.79% MINNESOTA
  5.78% BAYLOR
  5.58% UC IRVINE
  5.54% YALE
  5.44% VERMONT
  4.90% LIBERTY
  4.56% NORTHEASTERN
  3.73% SAINT LOUIS
  2.54% GEORGIA STATE
  2.29% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  1.71% COLGATE
  1.53% OLD DOMINION
  0.85% MONTANA
  0.72% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
  0.29% BRADLEY
  0.27% GARDNER-WEBB
  0.24% IONA
  0.14% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.10% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
*69.20% VIRGINIA
*69.01% GONZAGA
*62.14% DUKE
 61.51% NORTH CAROLINA
*58.50% MICHIGAN STATE
*45.24% KENTUCKY
 44.05% MICHIGAN
*38.46% PURDUE
 38.40% TENNESSEE
*32.54% TEXAS TECH
 23.51% HOUSTON
 21.16% VIRGINIA TECH
*18.64% AUBURN
 16.20% FLORIDA STATE
 14.81% IOWA STATE
 14.23% LSU
 12.63% WISCONSIN
 12.01% KANSAS
 11.10% LOUISVILLE
 10.75% MARYLAND
 10.72% BUFFALO
 10.45% WOFFORD
  9.93% KANSAS STATE
  9.83% MISSISSIPPI STATE
  7.29% VILLANOVA
  6.76% MARQUETTE
  5.87% CINCINNATI
  5.59% NEVADA
  5.49% FLORIDA
  5.07% SAINT MARY'S
  4.51% IOWA
  3.86% SYRACUSE
  3.71% VCU
  3.39% UTAH STATE
  3.30% OHIO STATE
  3.03% OREGON
  2.49% OKLAHOMA
  2.41% MINNESOTA
  2.39% BELMONT
  2.30% SETON HALL
  2.30% BAYLOR
  2.26% UCF
  2.13% OLE MISS
  2.06% WASHINGTON
  1.83% NEW MEXICO STATE
  1.39% MURRAY STATE
  1.24% ARIZONA STATE
  0.59% YALE
  0.57% UC IRVINE
  0.54% NORTHEASTERN
  0.53% LIBERTY
  0.48% VERMONT
  0.35% SAINT LOUIS
  0.31% GEORGIA STATE
  0.27% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.21% COLGATE
  0.20% OLD DOMINION
  0.09% MONTANA
  0.08% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
  0.04% BRADLEY
  0.03% GARDNER-WEBB
  0.02% IONA
  0.01% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.01% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
*50.41% VIRGINIA
 47.83% GONZAGA
 40.76% NORTH CAROLINA
 38.97% DUKE
*33.59% MICHIGAN STATE
 23.15% KENTUCKY
 20.89% MICHIGAN
 15.98% PURDUE
 15.71% TENNESSEE
*13.68% TEXAS TECH
  9.56% HOUSTON
  9.38% VIRGINIA TECH
* 9.17% AUBURN
  6.98% FLORIDA STATE
  6.09% WISCONSIN
  5.57% IOWA STATE
  4.94% KANSAS
  4.62% LSU
  4.21% KANSAS STATE
  3.92% LOUISVILLE
  3.50% WOFFORD
  3.42% MISSISSIPPI STATE
  3.34% MARYLAND
  3.14% BUFFALO
  2.26% MARQUETTE
  1.80% VILLANOVA
  1.44% NEVADA
  1.40% FLORIDA
  1.30% CINCINNATI
  1.19% SYRACUSE
  1.11% SAINT MARY'S
  1.04% VCU
  0.99% OREGON
  0.98% UTAH STATE
  0.91% IOWA
  0.78% OHIO STATE
  0.74% OKLAHOMA
  0.61% BAYLOR
  0.60% OLE MISS
  0.55% UCF
  0.53% MINNESOTA
  0.52% WASHINGTON
  0.48% SETON HALL
  0.46% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.45% BELMONT
  0.29% MURRAY STATE
  0.18% ARIZONA STATE
  0.11% UC IRVINE
  0.09% NORTHEASTERN
  0.08% LIBERTY
  0.07% VERMONT
  0.07% YALE
  0.04% SAINT LOUIS
  0.03% GEORGIA STATE
  0.02% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.01% COLGATE
  0.01% OLD DOMINION
  0.01% MONTANA
  0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
  0.00% GARDNER-WEBB
  0.00% BRADLEY
  0.00% IONA
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
*33.88% VIRGINIA
 29.72% GONZAGA
 22.02% NORTH CAROLINA
 21.79% DUKE
 18.16% MICHIGAN STATE
 10.68% KENTUCKY
 10.40% MICHIGAN
  7.87% PURDUE
  7.62% TENNESSEE
* 6.03% TEXAS TECH
  3.50% VIRGINIA TECH
  3.43% HOUSTON
  3.42% AUBURN
  2.55% WISCONSIN
  2.51% FLORIDA STATE
  1.84% IOWA STATE
  1.53% KANSAS STATE
  1.48% KANSAS
  1.36% LSU
  1.26% LOUISVILLE
  1.02% WOFFORD
  0.97% MISSISSIPPI STATE
  0.96% BUFFALO
  0.93% MARYLAND
  0.61% MARQUETTE
  0.55% VILLANOVA
  0.39% NEVADA
  0.37% FLORIDA
  0.36% CINCINNATI
  0.30% SAINT MARY'S
  0.30% SYRACUSE
  0.27% OREGON
  0.23% VCU
  0.23% IOWA
  0.20% UTAH STATE
  0.18% OKLAHOMA
  0.15% OHIO STATE
  0.14% OLE MISS
  0.13% BAYLOR
  0.10% MINNESOTA
  0.10% UCF
  0.09% WASHINGTON
  0.08% SETON HALL
  0.08% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.07% BELMONT
  0.05% MURRAY STATE
  0.03% ARIZONA STATE
  0.02% UC IRVINE
  0.01% NORTHEASTERN
  0.01% LIBERTY
  0.01% VERMONT
  0.01% YALE
  0.00% SAINT LOUIS
  0.00% GEORGIA STATE
  0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% COLGATE
  0.00% OLD DOMINION
  0.00% MONTANA
  0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
  0.00% GARDNER-WEBB
  0.00% BRADLEY
  0.00% IONA
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
*19.87% VIRGINIA
 18.30% GONZAGA
 12.41% DUKE
 11.20% NORTH CAROLINA
 10.01% MICHIGAN STATE
  5.11% MICHIGAN
  4.57% KENTUCKY
  3.16% PURDUE
  3.01% TENNESSEE
  2.62% TEXAS TECH
  1.33% VIRGINIA TECH
  1.16% AUBURN
  1.12% HOUSTON
  0.89% FLORIDA STATE
  0.85% WISCONSIN
  0.54% IOWA STATE
  0.43% KANSAS STATE
  0.41% LOUISVILLE
  0.41% LSU
  0.40% KANSAS
  0.29% BUFFALO
  0.28% MISSISSIPPI STATE
  0.27% MARYLAND
  0.26% WOFFORD
  0.16% MARQUETTE
  0.13% VILLANOVA
  0.10% NEVADA
  0.10% FLORIDA
  0.07% CINCINNATI
  0.07% SYRACUSE
  0.06% SAINT MARY'S
  0.06% OREGON
  0.05% VCU
  0.04% IOWA
  0.03% UTAH STATE
  0.03% OKLAHOMA
  0.03% BAYLOR
  0.03% OHIO STATE
  0.02% OLE MISS
  0.02% MINNESOTA
  0.02% UCF
  0.01% WASHINGTON
  0.01% BELMONT
  0.01% SETON HALL
  0.01% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.01% MURRAY STATE
  0.00% ARIZONA STATE
  0.00% UC IRVINE
  0.00% LIBERTY
  0.00% VERMONT
  0.00% NORTHEASTERN
  0.00% YALE
  0.00% SAINT LOUIS
  0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% GEORGIA STATE
  0.00% OLD DOMINION
  0.00% COLGATE
  0.00% MONTANA
  0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
  0.00% GARDNER-WEBB
  0.00% BRADLEY
  0.00% IONA
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON


Odds of Advancing to Round, March 19

First Round Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion
*68.30% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
*59.25% BELMONT
*58.68% ARIZONA STATE
*51.59% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
 48.41% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
 41.32% ST. JOHN'S
 40.75% TEMPLE
 31.70% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
*99.24% GONZAGA
*99.02% DUKE
*98.50% VIRGINIA
*98.37% NORTH CAROLINA
*97.56% MICHIGAN STATE
*95.30% KENTUCKY
*94.82% MICHIGAN
*92.19% TENNESSEE
*92.11% PURDUE
*90.46% TEXAS TECH
*86.64% HOUSTON
*86.12% VIRGINIA TECH
*82.51% FLORIDA STATE
*79.62% LSU
*78.66% KANSAS
 77.05% MISSISSIPPI STATE
 76.50% KANSAS STATE
*75.08% BUFFALO
*74.42% AUBURN
*70.36% MARYLAND
 66.75% IOWA STATE
*66.33% WOFFORD
 66.21% WISCONSIN
 66.18% LOUISVILLE
 66.01% MARQUETTE
 55.22% SYRACUSE
 54.95% VCU
 54.91% UTAH STATE
*53.83% VILLANOVA
 52.49% CINCINNATI
*51.40% OKLAHOMA
 50.24% NEVADA
*49.76% FLORIDA
 48.60% OLE MISS
*47.51% IOWA
 46.17% SAINT MARY'S
*45.09% WASHINGTON
*45.05% UCF
*44.78% BAYLOR
*33.99% MURRAY STATE
*33.82% MINNESOTA
*33.79% OREGON
 33.67% SETON HALL
*33.25% OHIO STATE
 25.58% NEW MEXICO STATE
*23.50% UC IRVINE
*22.95% LIBERTY
 21.34% NORTHEASTERN
 20.38% YALE
 19.49% BELMONT
 17.49% VERMONT
 16.29% ARIZONA STATE
 13.88% SAINT LOUIS
 13.36% GEORGIA STATE
 10.15% TEMPLE
  9.54% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  8.63% ST. JOHN'S
  7.89% OLD DOMINION
  7.81% COLGATE
  5.18% MONTANA
  4.70% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
  2.44% BRADLEY
  1.63% IONA
  1.50% GARDNER-WEBB
  0.87% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.41% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
  0.34% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
  0.11% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
*87.17% VIRGINIA
*85.71% GONZAGA
*84.10% NORTH CAROLINA
*84.05% DUKE
*74.79% MICHIGAN STATE
*70.37% MICHIGAN
*69.25% KENTUCKY
*67.72% TENNESSEE
*65.68% PURDUE
*63.00% TEXAS TECH
*56.76% VIRGINIA TECH
*54.01% FLORIDA STATE
*50.83% HOUSTON
*47.61% AUBURN
*45.86% LSU
 40.97% WISCONSIN
 38.24% MARYLAND
 37.90% KANSAS STATE
 37.82% KANSAS
 34.74% MISSISSIPPI STATE
 34.62% IOWA STATE
 30.16% MARQUETTE
 29.97% BUFFALO
 22.87% WOFFORD
 19.16% LOUISVILLE
 18.43% VILLANOVA
 16.56% CINCINNATI
*15.58% OREGON
 14.51% NEVADA
 14.33% SAINT MARY'S
 14.27% FLORIDA
 14.04% IOWA
 11.96% OHIO STATE
 10.55% MURRAY STATE
 10.10% NEW MEXICO STATE
  9.42% VCU
  9.30% UTAH STATE
  8.55% SYRACUSE
  7.37% BELMONT
  7.18% SETON HALL
  6.64% OKLAHOMA
  6.43% UCF
  6.37% WASHINGTON
  5.94% OLE MISS
  5.77% MINNESOTA
  5.67% BAYLOR
  5.55% UC IRVINE
  5.51% YALE
  5.28% VERMONT
  4.81% LIBERTY
  4.46% NORTHEASTERN
  3.69% SAINT LOUIS
  3.46% ARIZONA STATE
  3.02% TEMPLE
  2.58% GEORGIA STATE
  2.19% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  1.68% COLGATE
  1.56% OLD DOMINION
  1.38% ST. JOHN'S
  0.85% MONTANA
  0.70% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
  0.28% BRADLEY
  0.25% GARDNER-WEBB
  0.23% IONA
  0.10% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.04% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
  0.03% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
  0.01% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
*69.33% VIRGINIA
*69.28% GONZAGA
*62.44% DUKE
 61.65% NORTH CAROLINA
*58.50% MICHIGAN STATE
*45.19% KENTUCKY
 44.03% MICHIGAN
*38.52% PURDUE
 38.48% TENNESSEE
*32.52% TEXAS TECH
 23.28% HOUSTON
 21.05% VIRGINIA TECH
*18.54% AUBURN
 16.18% FLORIDA STATE
 14.80% IOWA STATE
 14.39% LSU
 12.64% WISCONSIN
 11.97% KANSAS
 11.43% MARYLAND
 11.28% BUFFALO
 11.04% LOUISVILLE
 10.78% WOFFORD
  9.92% KANSAS STATE
  9.83% MISSISSIPPI STATE
  7.22% VILLANOVA
  6.67% MARQUETTE
  5.71% CINCINNATI
  5.55% NEVADA
  5.42% FLORIDA
  5.12% SAINT MARY'S
  4.54% IOWA
  3.81% SYRACUSE
  3.63% VCU
  3.37% UTAH STATE
  3.30% OHIO STATE
  2.96% OREGON
  2.45% OKLAHOMA
  2.40% MINNESOTA
  2.26% SETON HALL
  2.25% BAYLOR
  2.19% UCF
  2.12% OLE MISS
  2.03% WASHINGTON
  1.91% NEW MEXICO STATE
  1.34% MURRAY STATE
  1.27% BELMONT
  0.66% ARIZONA STATE
  0.57% YALE
  0.56% UC IRVINE
  0.52% NORTHEASTERN
  0.51% LIBERTY
  0.45% VERMONT
  0.37% TEMPLE
  0.35% SAINT LOUIS
  0.32% GEORGIA STATE
  0.25% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.21% OLD DOMINION
  0.20% COLGATE
  0.19% ST. JOHN'S
  0.09% MONTANA
  0.08% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
  0.04% BRADLEY
  0.02% GARDNER-WEBB
  0.02% IONA
  0.01% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
  0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
  0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
*50.53% VIRGINIA
 48.11% GONZAGA
 40.88% NORTH CAROLINA
 39.12% DUKE
*33.55% MICHIGAN STATE
 23.12% KENTUCKY
 20.79% MICHIGAN
 16.00% PURDUE
 15.69% TENNESSEE
*13.58% TEXAS TECH
  9.42% HOUSTON
  9.30% VIRGINIA TECH
* 9.13% AUBURN
  6.97% FLORIDA STATE
  6.09% WISCONSIN
  5.56% IOWA STATE
  4.91% KANSAS
  4.67% LSU
  4.21% KANSAS STATE
  3.88% LOUISVILLE
  3.65% WOFFORD
  3.54% MARYLAND
  3.41% MISSISSIPPI STATE
  3.29% BUFFALO
  2.22% MARQUETTE
  1.78% VILLANOVA
  1.41% NEVADA
  1.37% FLORIDA
  1.25% CINCINNATI
  1.18% SYRACUSE
  1.12% SAINT MARY'S
  1.01% VCU
  0.98% UTAH STATE
  0.97% OREGON
  0.92% IOWA
  0.78% OHIO STATE
  0.72% OKLAHOMA
  0.60% OLE MISS
  0.60% BAYLOR
  0.53% MINNESOTA
  0.53% UCF
  0.51% WASHINGTON
  0.49% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.47% SETON HALL
  0.27% MURRAY STATE
  0.23% BELMONT
  0.10% UC IRVINE
  0.09% ARIZONA STATE
  0.08% NORTHEASTERN
  0.07% LIBERTY
  0.06% VERMONT
  0.06% YALE
  0.05% TEMPLE
  0.04% SAINT LOUIS
  0.03% GEORGIA STATE
  0.02% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.02% ST. JOHN'S
  0.01% OLD DOMINION
  0.01% COLGATE
  0.01% MONTANA
  0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
  0.00% BRADLEY
  0.00% GARDNER-WEBB
  0.00% IONA
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
  0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
  0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
*33.97% VIRGINIA
 29.94% GONZAGA
 22.07% NORTH CAROLINA
 21.83% DUKE
 18.10% MICHIGAN STATE
 10.66% KENTUCKY
 10.34% MICHIGAN
  7.88% PURDUE
  7.60% TENNESSEE
* 5.97% TEXAS TECH
  3.45% VIRGINIA TECH
  3.40% AUBURN
  3.36% HOUSTON
  2.56% WISCONSIN
  2.50% FLORIDA STATE
  1.83% IOWA STATE
  1.53% KANSAS STATE
  1.47% KANSAS
  1.36% LSU
  1.24% LOUISVILLE
  1.07% WOFFORD
  1.01% BUFFALO
  0.98% MARYLAND
  0.96% MISSISSIPPI STATE
  0.60% MARQUETTE
  0.54% VILLANOVA
  0.38% NEVADA
  0.36% FLORIDA
  0.34% CINCINNATI
  0.30% SAINT MARY'S
  0.29% SYRACUSE
  0.26% OREGON
  0.23% IOWA
  0.22% VCU
  0.20% UTAH STATE
  0.18% OKLAHOMA
  0.15% OHIO STATE
  0.14% OLE MISS
  0.13% BAYLOR
  0.10% MINNESOTA
  0.10% UCF
  0.09% WASHINGTON
  0.09% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.08% SETON HALL
  0.04% MURRAY STATE
  0.04% BELMONT
  0.02% UC IRVINE
  0.01% ARIZONA STATE
  0.01% NORTHEASTERN
  0.01% LIBERTY
  0.01% VERMONT
  0.01% YALE
  0.01% TEMPLE
  0.00% SAINT LOUIS
  0.00% GEORGIA STATE
  0.00% ST. JOHN'S
  0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% OLD DOMINION
  0.00% COLGATE
  0.00% MONTANA
  0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
  0.00% GARDNER-WEBB
  0.00% BRADLEY
  0.00% IONA
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
  0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
  0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
*19.90% VIRGINIA
 18.47% GONZAGA
 12.43% DUKE
 11.21% NORTH CAROLINA
  9.97% MICHIGAN STATE
  5.08% MICHIGAN
  4.55% KENTUCKY
  3.16% PURDUE
  2.99% TENNESSEE
  2.59% TEXAS TECH
  1.31% VIRGINIA TECH
  1.15% AUBURN
  1.08% HOUSTON
  0.88% FLORIDA STATE
  0.85% WISCONSIN
  0.54% IOWA STATE
  0.43% KANSAS STATE
  0.41% LSU
  0.41% LOUISVILLE
  0.39% KANSAS
  0.30% BUFFALO
  0.28% WOFFORD
  0.28% MARYLAND
  0.28% MISSISSIPPI STATE
  0.16% MARQUETTE
  0.12% VILLANOVA
  0.10% NEVADA
  0.09% FLORIDA
  0.07% SYRACUSE
  0.07% CINCINNATI
  0.06% SAINT MARY'S
  0.05% OREGON
  0.05% VCU
  0.04% IOWA
  0.03% UTAH STATE
  0.03% OKLAHOMA
  0.03% OHIO STATE
  0.03% BAYLOR
  0.02% OLE MISS
  0.02% MINNESOTA
  0.02% UCF
  0.01% NEW MEXICO STATE
  0.01% WASHINGTON
  0.01% SETON HALL
  0.01% MURRAY STATE
  0.01% BELMONT
  0.00% ARIZONA STATE
  0.00% UC IRVINE
  0.00% LIBERTY
  0.00% NORTHEASTERN
  0.00% VERMONT
  0.00% TEMPLE
  0.00% YALE
  0.00% SAINT LOUIS
  0.00% ST. JOHN'S
  0.00% GEORGIA STATE
  0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
  0.00% OLD DOMINION
  0.00% COLGATE
  0.00% MONTANA
  0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
  0.00% BRADLEY
  0.00% GARDNER-WEBB
  0.00% IONA
  0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
  0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
  0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
  0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL


Selection Notes Delayed this year due to poorly timed work travel...

For the first year of using the new NET ranking system, it is difficult to assess what is or is not following precedent. That said, it is worthwhile to compare the selections and seedings against the available metrics. Here are a few notes:

The only real head-scratchers had to do with the selection of the final at-large bids. In particular, St. John's was ranked #73 inthe NET rankings, #53 in my Pairwise rankings, and #91 in my Predictive (score-based) ranking. NC State or Clemson would have been an obvious choice to replace them, as both teams are 11 or more spots higher in all three of the rankings. Oddly, neither of those teams was even listed among the "first four out". Arizona State and Belmont were also well behind NC State and Clemson in those three metrics.
* Denotes team advanced
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Note: if you use any of the facts, equations, or mathematical principles introduced here, you must give me credit.

copyright ©2019 Andrew Dolphin