Biggest Surprise: Chalk (0.49%)

Normally, I use this area to highlight a team's surprising run against the odds, such as Loyola's run in 2018, South Carolina in 2017, etc. However, this year's tournament was surprising for a different reason - the favorites mostly won. Here are two numbers that stand out:

1. All sixteen favorites (determined per my rankings) won in the second round. With all underdogs having more than a 12.5% (one-in-eight) chance of winning, the likelihood of all sixteen losing was a mere 0.49%.
2. There were 22 games played in which the underdog had less than a 23% chance of winning. The underdog went 0-for-22 in those games, a 6.6% likelihood.
For comparison, the least probable run by a team this year [as of the semifinal] was Texas Tech's championship game appearance (5.97% probability).

Number of Upsets

Are there more upsets in the NCAA tournament than if these were just regular season games? For this analysis, "upset" is defined by a team with less than 50% chance (as calculated below) winning its game (generally the same as the betting underdog) rather than based on committee seeding.

1. First Four: 1.6 predicted, 0 actual
2. First Round: 7.6 predicted, 11 actual
3. Second Round: 4.4 predicted, 5 actual
4. Sweet Sixteen: 2.7 predicted, 2 actual
5. Elite Eight: 1.7 predicted, 2 actual
6. Final Four: 0.8 predicted, 1 actual
7. Championship: 0.5 predicted, 0 actual
8. Grand Total: 19.2 predicted, 16 actual
For this tournament, the number of upsets was below the expected number of upsets by 3.2. For the last five tournaments combined, there were a total of 97 upsets, compared with an expected 99.0 upsets. The difference is -0.2 sigma, which falls at the 42nd percentile on a bell curve. Over these seasons, the number of upsets as a function of likelihood of the upset happening breaks down as follows. There is no clear indication that upsets are more or less likely than predicted (with predictions based primarily on regular-season results).

Likelihood# GamesExpected
# Upsets
Actual
# Upsets
Sigma
0-5%280.721.6
5-10%141.11-0.1
10-15%253.20-1.9
15-20%264.62-1.3
20-25%317.070.0
25-30%257.070.0
30-35%5116.612-1.4
35-40%3111.7161.6
40-45%4720.1210.3
45-50%5727.0290.5
Total33599.097-0.2

Odds of Advancing to Round, April 7

Champion
```*52.91% VIRGINIA
47.09% TEXAS TECH
```

Odds of Advancing to Round, April 1

Finals Champion
```*67.68% VIRGINIA
54.01% MICHIGAN STATE
*45.99% TEXAS TECH
32.32% AUBURN
```
```*36.94% VIRGINIA
28.64% MICHIGAN STATE
22.59% TEXAS TECH
11.82% AUBURN
```

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 30

Final Four Finals Champion
``` 63.09% GONZAGA
*61.73% VIRGINIA
57.84% KENTUCKY
*51.82% MICHIGAN STATE
48.18% DUKE
*42.16% AUBURN
38.27% PURDUE
*36.91% TEXAS TECH
```
```*39.17% VIRGINIA
37.74% GONZAGA
25.55% KENTUCKY
23.80% MICHIGAN STATE
21.28% DUKE
19.85% PURDUE
*17.19% TEXAS TECH
15.43% AUBURN
```
``` 23.90% GONZAGA
*19.91% VIRGINIA
13.01% MICHIGAN STATE
11.25% DUKE
10.36% KENTUCKY
8.67% TEXAS TECH
7.78% PURDUE
5.12% AUBURN
```

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 25

Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion
```*81.14% VIRGINIA
*75.62% GONZAGA
*75.08% MICHIGAN STATE
*67.09% DUKE
66.05% NORTH CAROLINA
*58.88% KENTUCKY
*55.06% PURDUE
53.83% MICHIGAN
*46.17% TEXAS TECH
44.94% TENNESSEE
41.12% HOUSTON
*33.95% AUBURN
32.91% VIRGINIA TECH
24.92% LSU
24.38% FLORIDA STATE
18.86% OREGON
```
```*53.80% VIRGINIA
48.89% GONZAGA
*41.89% MICHIGAN STATE
38.69% NORTH CAROLINA
37.62% DUKE
29.76% KENTUCKY
23.48% MICHIGAN
23.23% PURDUE
*18.48% TEXAS TECH
17.19% HOUSTON
16.88% TENNESSEE
*14.36% AUBURN
12.94% VIRGINIA TECH
9.15% FLORIDA STATE
7.55% LSU
6.09% OREGON
```
```*33.88% VIRGINIA
30.65% GONZAGA
20.88% MICHIGAN STATE
19.95% NORTH CAROLINA
18.68% DUKE
13.90% KENTUCKY
11.73% MICHIGAN
11.34% PURDUE
* 8.55% TEXAS TECH
7.40% TENNESSEE
6.57% HOUSTON
5.16% AUBURN
4.28% VIRGINIA TECH
3.31% FLORIDA STATE
1.92% LSU
1.79% OREGON
```
``` 19.14% GONZAGA
*18.84% VIRGINIA
11.25% MICHIGAN STATE
10.04% DUKE
9.71% NORTH CAROLINA
6.09% KENTUCKY
5.83% MICHIGAN
4.70% PURDUE
3.93% TEXAS TECH
2.71% TENNESSEE
2.32% HOUSTON
1.71% AUBURN
1.57% VIRGINIA TECH
1.19% FLORIDA STATE
0.55% LSU
0.42% OREGON
```

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 23

Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion
```*87.24% GONZAGA
*83.98% VIRGINIA
*83.04% DUKE
*82.44% NORTH CAROLINA
*81.69% VIRGINIA TECH
*81.42% MICHIGAN STATE
*72.34% MICHIGAN
*71.38% TENNESSEE
*70.30% HOUSTON
*69.53% OREGON
*69.38% PURDUE
*69.02% FLORIDA STATE
*68.88% KENTUCKY
*63.83% TEXAS TECH
*53.13% AUBURN
*51.70% LSU
48.30% MARYLAND
46.87% KANSAS
36.17% BUFFALO
31.12% WOFFORD
30.98% MURRAY STATE
30.62% VILLANOVA
30.47% UC IRVINE
29.70% OHIO STATE
28.62% IOWA
27.66% FLORIDA
18.58% MINNESOTA
18.31% LIBERTY
17.56% WASHINGTON
16.96% UCF
16.02% OKLAHOMA
12.76% BAYLOR
```
```*71.42% GONZAGA
*70.95% VIRGINIA
*60.94% MICHIGAN STATE
*60.17% DUKE
55.58% NORTH CAROLINA
*45.53% KENTUCKY
43.44% MICHIGAN
*40.39% PURDUE
38.40% TENNESSEE
*32.65% TEXAS TECH
31.90% HOUSTON
31.08% VIRGINIA TECH
*21.36% AUBURN
18.72% FLORIDA STATE
17.52% KANSAS
17.00% OREGON
16.59% LSU
14.82% MARYLAND
14.76% WOFFORD
13.64% BUFFALO
11.90% VILLANOVA
10.26% FLORIDA
9.30% IOWA
8.30% OKLAHOMA
7.81% OHIO STATE
7.65% MINNESOTA
6.42% UCF
5.54% WASHINGTON
5.37% BAYLOR
4.49% MURRAY STATE
3.76% UC IRVINE
2.33% LIBERTY
```
```*50.30% VIRGINIA
50.30% GONZAGA
37.62% DUKE
*34.33% MICHIGAN STATE
34.28% NORTH CAROLINA
25.17% KENTUCKY
19.65% MICHIGAN
17.91% PURDUE
16.27% TENNESSEE
14.33% HOUSTON
13.99% VIRGINIA TECH
*13.24% TEXAS TECH
* 9.78% AUBURN
7.67% FLORIDA STATE
7.49% KANSAS
6.39% OREGON
5.41% WOFFORD
5.38% LSU
4.60% MARYLAND
3.93% BUFFALO
3.28% VILLANOVA
2.80% OKLAHOMA
2.62% FLORIDA
2.26% IOWA
2.04% OHIO STATE
1.89% MINNESOTA
1.81% UCF
1.51% BAYLOR
1.51% WASHINGTON
1.07% MURRAY STATE
0.78% UC IRVINE
0.39% LIBERTY
```
```*33.15% VIRGINIA
32.82% GONZAGA
19.90% DUKE
18.29% NORTH CAROLINA
17.32% MICHIGAN STATE
12.62% KENTUCKY
10.03% MICHIGAN
8.92% PURDUE
7.75% TENNESSEE
* 6.10% TEXAS TECH
5.74% HOUSTON
4.96% VIRGINIA TECH
3.71% AUBURN
2.76% FLORIDA STATE
2.64% KANSAS
2.08% OREGON
1.75% WOFFORD
1.47% LSU
1.30% BUFFALO
1.20% MARYLAND
1.01% VILLANOVA
0.81% OKLAHOMA
0.77% FLORIDA
0.61% IOWA
0.46% OHIO STATE
0.38% MINNESOTA
0.37% UCF
0.37% BAYLOR
0.32% WASHINGTON
0.22% MURRAY STATE
0.13% UC IRVINE
0.04% LIBERTY
```
``` 21.38% GONZAGA
*18.56% VIRGINIA
11.41% DUKE
9.51% MICHIGAN STATE
8.77% NORTH CAROLINA
5.64% KENTUCKY
5.10% MICHIGAN
3.54% PURDUE
2.92% TENNESSEE
2.80% TEXAS TECH
1.99% HOUSTON
1.95% VIRGINIA TECH
1.21% AUBURN
0.99% FLORIDA STATE
0.79% KANSAS
0.50% OREGON
0.48% WOFFORD
0.45% LSU
0.43% BUFFALO
0.35% MARYLAND
0.23% VILLANOVA
0.23% FLORIDA
0.17% OKLAHOMA
0.12% IOWA
0.09% MINNESOTA
0.09% BAYLOR
0.09% UCF
0.08% OHIO STATE
0.06% WASHINGTON
0.04% MURRAY STATE
0.02% UC IRVINE
0.01% LIBERTY
```

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 21

Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion
```*99.08% GONZAGA
*98.78% DUKE
*98.42% VIRGINIA
*98.31% NORTH CAROLINA
*97.51% MICHIGAN STATE
*95.28% KENTUCKY
*94.80% MICHIGAN
*92.19% PURDUE
*92.07% TENNESSEE
*90.15% TEXAS TECH
*86.79% HOUSTON
*86.04% VIRGINIA TECH
*82.17% FLORIDA STATE
*79.28% LSU
*78.48% KANSAS
76.80% MISSISSIPPI STATE
76.41% KANSAS STATE
*74.81% AUBURN
*71.37% BUFFALO
66.76% IOWA STATE
66.19% LOUISVILLE
*66.00% MARYLAND
66.00% WISCONSIN
65.85% MARQUETTE
*65.83% WOFFORD
55.15% SYRACUSE
54.91% VCU
54.84% UTAH STATE
*54.05% VILLANOVA
52.85% CINCINNATI
*51.52% OKLAHOMA
*49.81% FLORIDA
48.48% OLE MISS
*47.15% IOWA
45.95% SAINT MARY'S
*45.16% WASHINGTON
*45.09% UCF
*44.85% BAYLOR
34.17% SETON HALL
*34.15% MURRAY STATE
*34.00% OREGON
34.00% BELMONT
*33.81% MINNESOTA
*33.24% OHIO STATE
28.63% ARIZONA STATE
25.19% NEW MEXICO STATE
*23.59% UC IRVINE
*23.20% LIBERTY
21.52% NORTHEASTERN
20.72% YALE
17.83% VERMONT
13.96% SAINT LOUIS
13.21% GEORGIA STATE
9.85% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
7.93% COLGATE
7.81% OLD DOMINION
5.20% MONTANA
4.72% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
1.69% IONA
1.58% GARDNER-WEBB
1.22% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
0.92% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
```
```*87.04% VIRGINIA
*85.48% GONZAGA
*83.98% NORTH CAROLINA
*83.69% DUKE
*74.70% MICHIGAN STATE
*70.27% MICHIGAN
*69.51% KENTUCKY
*67.50% TENNESSEE
*65.67% PURDUE
*62.94% TEXAS TECH
*56.76% VIRGINIA TECH
*53.68% FLORIDA STATE
*51.04% HOUSTON
*47.81% AUBURN
*45.30% LSU
40.84% WISCONSIN
37.84% KANSAS STATE
37.81% KANSAS
35.91% MARYLAND
34.60% MISSISSIPPI STATE
34.52% IOWA STATE
30.19% MARQUETTE
28.50% BUFFALO
22.45% WOFFORD
19.22% LOUISVILLE
18.57% VILLANOVA
16.85% CINCINNATI
*15.75% OREGON
14.34% FLORIDA
14.23% SAINT MARY'S
13.94% IOWA
13.24% BELMONT
11.91% OHIO STATE
10.69% MURRAY STATE
9.81% NEW MEXICO STATE
9.59% VCU
9.34% UTAH STATE
8.65% SYRACUSE
7.32% SETON HALL
6.72% OKLAHOMA
6.58% UCF
6.44% WASHINGTON
6.28% ARIZONA STATE
5.96% OLE MISS
5.79% MINNESOTA
5.78% BAYLOR
5.58% UC IRVINE
5.54% YALE
5.44% VERMONT
4.90% LIBERTY
4.56% NORTHEASTERN
3.73% SAINT LOUIS
2.54% GEORGIA STATE
2.29% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
1.71% COLGATE
1.53% OLD DOMINION
0.85% MONTANA
0.72% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
0.27% GARDNER-WEBB
0.24% IONA
0.14% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
0.10% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
```
```*69.20% VIRGINIA
*69.01% GONZAGA
*62.14% DUKE
61.51% NORTH CAROLINA
*58.50% MICHIGAN STATE
*45.24% KENTUCKY
44.05% MICHIGAN
*38.46% PURDUE
38.40% TENNESSEE
*32.54% TEXAS TECH
23.51% HOUSTON
21.16% VIRGINIA TECH
*18.64% AUBURN
16.20% FLORIDA STATE
14.81% IOWA STATE
14.23% LSU
12.63% WISCONSIN
12.01% KANSAS
11.10% LOUISVILLE
10.75% MARYLAND
10.72% BUFFALO
10.45% WOFFORD
9.93% KANSAS STATE
9.83% MISSISSIPPI STATE
7.29% VILLANOVA
6.76% MARQUETTE
5.87% CINCINNATI
5.49% FLORIDA
5.07% SAINT MARY'S
4.51% IOWA
3.86% SYRACUSE
3.71% VCU
3.39% UTAH STATE
3.30% OHIO STATE
3.03% OREGON
2.49% OKLAHOMA
2.41% MINNESOTA
2.39% BELMONT
2.30% SETON HALL
2.30% BAYLOR
2.26% UCF
2.13% OLE MISS
2.06% WASHINGTON
1.83% NEW MEXICO STATE
1.39% MURRAY STATE
1.24% ARIZONA STATE
0.59% YALE
0.57% UC IRVINE
0.54% NORTHEASTERN
0.53% LIBERTY
0.48% VERMONT
0.35% SAINT LOUIS
0.31% GEORGIA STATE
0.27% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
0.21% COLGATE
0.20% OLD DOMINION
0.09% MONTANA
0.08% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
0.03% GARDNER-WEBB
0.02% IONA
0.01% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
0.01% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
```
```*50.41% VIRGINIA
47.83% GONZAGA
40.76% NORTH CAROLINA
38.97% DUKE
*33.59% MICHIGAN STATE
23.15% KENTUCKY
20.89% MICHIGAN
15.98% PURDUE
15.71% TENNESSEE
*13.68% TEXAS TECH
9.56% HOUSTON
9.38% VIRGINIA TECH
* 9.17% AUBURN
6.98% FLORIDA STATE
6.09% WISCONSIN
5.57% IOWA STATE
4.94% KANSAS
4.62% LSU
4.21% KANSAS STATE
3.92% LOUISVILLE
3.50% WOFFORD
3.42% MISSISSIPPI STATE
3.34% MARYLAND
3.14% BUFFALO
2.26% MARQUETTE
1.80% VILLANOVA
1.40% FLORIDA
1.30% CINCINNATI
1.19% SYRACUSE
1.11% SAINT MARY'S
1.04% VCU
0.99% OREGON
0.98% UTAH STATE
0.91% IOWA
0.78% OHIO STATE
0.74% OKLAHOMA
0.61% BAYLOR
0.60% OLE MISS
0.55% UCF
0.53% MINNESOTA
0.52% WASHINGTON
0.48% SETON HALL
0.46% NEW MEXICO STATE
0.45% BELMONT
0.29% MURRAY STATE
0.18% ARIZONA STATE
0.11% UC IRVINE
0.09% NORTHEASTERN
0.08% LIBERTY
0.07% VERMONT
0.07% YALE
0.04% SAINT LOUIS
0.03% GEORGIA STATE
0.02% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
0.01% COLGATE
0.01% OLD DOMINION
0.01% MONTANA
0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
0.00% GARDNER-WEBB
0.00% IONA
0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
```
```*33.88% VIRGINIA
29.72% GONZAGA
22.02% NORTH CAROLINA
21.79% DUKE
18.16% MICHIGAN STATE
10.68% KENTUCKY
10.40% MICHIGAN
7.87% PURDUE
7.62% TENNESSEE
* 6.03% TEXAS TECH
3.50% VIRGINIA TECH
3.43% HOUSTON
3.42% AUBURN
2.55% WISCONSIN
2.51% FLORIDA STATE
1.84% IOWA STATE
1.53% KANSAS STATE
1.48% KANSAS
1.36% LSU
1.26% LOUISVILLE
1.02% WOFFORD
0.97% MISSISSIPPI STATE
0.96% BUFFALO
0.93% MARYLAND
0.61% MARQUETTE
0.55% VILLANOVA
0.37% FLORIDA
0.36% CINCINNATI
0.30% SAINT MARY'S
0.30% SYRACUSE
0.27% OREGON
0.23% VCU
0.23% IOWA
0.20% UTAH STATE
0.18% OKLAHOMA
0.15% OHIO STATE
0.14% OLE MISS
0.13% BAYLOR
0.10% MINNESOTA
0.10% UCF
0.09% WASHINGTON
0.08% SETON HALL
0.08% NEW MEXICO STATE
0.07% BELMONT
0.05% MURRAY STATE
0.03% ARIZONA STATE
0.02% UC IRVINE
0.01% NORTHEASTERN
0.01% LIBERTY
0.01% VERMONT
0.01% YALE
0.00% SAINT LOUIS
0.00% GEORGIA STATE
0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
0.00% COLGATE
0.00% OLD DOMINION
0.00% MONTANA
0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
0.00% GARDNER-WEBB
0.00% IONA
0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
```
```*19.87% VIRGINIA
18.30% GONZAGA
12.41% DUKE
11.20% NORTH CAROLINA
10.01% MICHIGAN STATE
5.11% MICHIGAN
4.57% KENTUCKY
3.16% PURDUE
3.01% TENNESSEE
2.62% TEXAS TECH
1.33% VIRGINIA TECH
1.16% AUBURN
1.12% HOUSTON
0.89% FLORIDA STATE
0.85% WISCONSIN
0.54% IOWA STATE
0.43% KANSAS STATE
0.41% LOUISVILLE
0.41% LSU
0.40% KANSAS
0.29% BUFFALO
0.28% MISSISSIPPI STATE
0.27% MARYLAND
0.26% WOFFORD
0.16% MARQUETTE
0.13% VILLANOVA
0.10% FLORIDA
0.07% CINCINNATI
0.07% SYRACUSE
0.06% SAINT MARY'S
0.06% OREGON
0.05% VCU
0.04% IOWA
0.03% UTAH STATE
0.03% OKLAHOMA
0.03% BAYLOR
0.03% OHIO STATE
0.02% OLE MISS
0.02% MINNESOTA
0.02% UCF
0.01% WASHINGTON
0.01% BELMONT
0.01% SETON HALL
0.01% NEW MEXICO STATE
0.01% MURRAY STATE
0.00% ARIZONA STATE
0.00% UC IRVINE
0.00% LIBERTY
0.00% VERMONT
0.00% NORTHEASTERN
0.00% YALE
0.00% SAINT LOUIS
0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
0.00% GEORGIA STATE
0.00% OLD DOMINION
0.00% COLGATE
0.00% MONTANA
0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
0.00% GARDNER-WEBB
0.00% IONA
0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
```

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 19

First Round Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion
```*68.30% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
*59.25% BELMONT
*58.68% ARIZONA STATE
*51.59% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
48.41% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
41.32% ST. JOHN'S
40.75% TEMPLE
31.70% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
```
```*99.24% GONZAGA
*99.02% DUKE
*98.50% VIRGINIA
*98.37% NORTH CAROLINA
*97.56% MICHIGAN STATE
*95.30% KENTUCKY
*94.82% MICHIGAN
*92.19% TENNESSEE
*92.11% PURDUE
*90.46% TEXAS TECH
*86.64% HOUSTON
*86.12% VIRGINIA TECH
*82.51% FLORIDA STATE
*79.62% LSU
*78.66% KANSAS
77.05% MISSISSIPPI STATE
76.50% KANSAS STATE
*75.08% BUFFALO
*74.42% AUBURN
*70.36% MARYLAND
66.75% IOWA STATE
*66.33% WOFFORD
66.21% WISCONSIN
66.18% LOUISVILLE
66.01% MARQUETTE
55.22% SYRACUSE
54.95% VCU
54.91% UTAH STATE
*53.83% VILLANOVA
52.49% CINCINNATI
*51.40% OKLAHOMA
*49.76% FLORIDA
48.60% OLE MISS
*47.51% IOWA
46.17% SAINT MARY'S
*45.09% WASHINGTON
*45.05% UCF
*44.78% BAYLOR
*33.99% MURRAY STATE
*33.82% MINNESOTA
*33.79% OREGON
33.67% SETON HALL
*33.25% OHIO STATE
25.58% NEW MEXICO STATE
*23.50% UC IRVINE
*22.95% LIBERTY
21.34% NORTHEASTERN
20.38% YALE
19.49% BELMONT
17.49% VERMONT
16.29% ARIZONA STATE
13.88% SAINT LOUIS
13.36% GEORGIA STATE
10.15% TEMPLE
9.54% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
8.63% ST. JOHN'S
7.89% OLD DOMINION
7.81% COLGATE
5.18% MONTANA
4.70% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
1.63% IONA
1.50% GARDNER-WEBB
0.87% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
0.41% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
0.34% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
0.11% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
```
```*87.17% VIRGINIA
*85.71% GONZAGA
*84.10% NORTH CAROLINA
*84.05% DUKE
*74.79% MICHIGAN STATE
*70.37% MICHIGAN
*69.25% KENTUCKY
*67.72% TENNESSEE
*65.68% PURDUE
*63.00% TEXAS TECH
*56.76% VIRGINIA TECH
*54.01% FLORIDA STATE
*50.83% HOUSTON
*47.61% AUBURN
*45.86% LSU
40.97% WISCONSIN
38.24% MARYLAND
37.90% KANSAS STATE
37.82% KANSAS
34.74% MISSISSIPPI STATE
34.62% IOWA STATE
30.16% MARQUETTE
29.97% BUFFALO
22.87% WOFFORD
19.16% LOUISVILLE
18.43% VILLANOVA
16.56% CINCINNATI
*15.58% OREGON
14.33% SAINT MARY'S
14.27% FLORIDA
14.04% IOWA
11.96% OHIO STATE
10.55% MURRAY STATE
10.10% NEW MEXICO STATE
9.42% VCU
9.30% UTAH STATE
8.55% SYRACUSE
7.37% BELMONT
7.18% SETON HALL
6.64% OKLAHOMA
6.43% UCF
6.37% WASHINGTON
5.94% OLE MISS
5.77% MINNESOTA
5.67% BAYLOR
5.55% UC IRVINE
5.51% YALE
5.28% VERMONT
4.81% LIBERTY
4.46% NORTHEASTERN
3.69% SAINT LOUIS
3.46% ARIZONA STATE
3.02% TEMPLE
2.58% GEORGIA STATE
2.19% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
1.68% COLGATE
1.56% OLD DOMINION
1.38% ST. JOHN'S
0.85% MONTANA
0.70% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
0.25% GARDNER-WEBB
0.23% IONA
0.10% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
0.04% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
0.03% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
0.01% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
```
```*69.33% VIRGINIA
*69.28% GONZAGA
*62.44% DUKE
61.65% NORTH CAROLINA
*58.50% MICHIGAN STATE
*45.19% KENTUCKY
44.03% MICHIGAN
*38.52% PURDUE
38.48% TENNESSEE
*32.52% TEXAS TECH
23.28% HOUSTON
21.05% VIRGINIA TECH
*18.54% AUBURN
16.18% FLORIDA STATE
14.80% IOWA STATE
14.39% LSU
12.64% WISCONSIN
11.97% KANSAS
11.43% MARYLAND
11.28% BUFFALO
11.04% LOUISVILLE
10.78% WOFFORD
9.92% KANSAS STATE
9.83% MISSISSIPPI STATE
7.22% VILLANOVA
6.67% MARQUETTE
5.71% CINCINNATI
5.42% FLORIDA
5.12% SAINT MARY'S
4.54% IOWA
3.81% SYRACUSE
3.63% VCU
3.37% UTAH STATE
3.30% OHIO STATE
2.96% OREGON
2.45% OKLAHOMA
2.40% MINNESOTA
2.26% SETON HALL
2.25% BAYLOR
2.19% UCF
2.12% OLE MISS
2.03% WASHINGTON
1.91% NEW MEXICO STATE
1.34% MURRAY STATE
1.27% BELMONT
0.66% ARIZONA STATE
0.57% YALE
0.56% UC IRVINE
0.52% NORTHEASTERN
0.51% LIBERTY
0.45% VERMONT
0.37% TEMPLE
0.35% SAINT LOUIS
0.32% GEORGIA STATE
0.25% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
0.21% OLD DOMINION
0.20% COLGATE
0.19% ST. JOHN'S
0.09% MONTANA
0.08% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
0.02% GARDNER-WEBB
0.02% IONA
0.01% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
```
```*50.53% VIRGINIA
48.11% GONZAGA
40.88% NORTH CAROLINA
39.12% DUKE
*33.55% MICHIGAN STATE
23.12% KENTUCKY
20.79% MICHIGAN
16.00% PURDUE
15.69% TENNESSEE
*13.58% TEXAS TECH
9.42% HOUSTON
9.30% VIRGINIA TECH
* 9.13% AUBURN
6.97% FLORIDA STATE
6.09% WISCONSIN
5.56% IOWA STATE
4.91% KANSAS
4.67% LSU
4.21% KANSAS STATE
3.88% LOUISVILLE
3.65% WOFFORD
3.54% MARYLAND
3.41% MISSISSIPPI STATE
3.29% BUFFALO
2.22% MARQUETTE
1.78% VILLANOVA
1.37% FLORIDA
1.25% CINCINNATI
1.18% SYRACUSE
1.12% SAINT MARY'S
1.01% VCU
0.98% UTAH STATE
0.97% OREGON
0.92% IOWA
0.78% OHIO STATE
0.72% OKLAHOMA
0.60% OLE MISS
0.60% BAYLOR
0.53% MINNESOTA
0.53% UCF
0.51% WASHINGTON
0.49% NEW MEXICO STATE
0.47% SETON HALL
0.27% MURRAY STATE
0.23% BELMONT
0.10% UC IRVINE
0.09% ARIZONA STATE
0.08% NORTHEASTERN
0.07% LIBERTY
0.06% VERMONT
0.06% YALE
0.05% TEMPLE
0.04% SAINT LOUIS
0.03% GEORGIA STATE
0.02% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
0.02% ST. JOHN'S
0.01% OLD DOMINION
0.01% COLGATE
0.01% MONTANA
0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
0.00% GARDNER-WEBB
0.00% IONA
0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
```
```*33.97% VIRGINIA
29.94% GONZAGA
22.07% NORTH CAROLINA
21.83% DUKE
18.10% MICHIGAN STATE
10.66% KENTUCKY
10.34% MICHIGAN
7.88% PURDUE
7.60% TENNESSEE
* 5.97% TEXAS TECH
3.45% VIRGINIA TECH
3.40% AUBURN
3.36% HOUSTON
2.56% WISCONSIN
2.50% FLORIDA STATE
1.83% IOWA STATE
1.53% KANSAS STATE
1.47% KANSAS
1.36% LSU
1.24% LOUISVILLE
1.07% WOFFORD
1.01% BUFFALO
0.98% MARYLAND
0.96% MISSISSIPPI STATE
0.60% MARQUETTE
0.54% VILLANOVA
0.36% FLORIDA
0.34% CINCINNATI
0.30% SAINT MARY'S
0.29% SYRACUSE
0.26% OREGON
0.23% IOWA
0.22% VCU
0.20% UTAH STATE
0.18% OKLAHOMA
0.15% OHIO STATE
0.14% OLE MISS
0.13% BAYLOR
0.10% MINNESOTA
0.10% UCF
0.09% WASHINGTON
0.09% NEW MEXICO STATE
0.08% SETON HALL
0.04% MURRAY STATE
0.04% BELMONT
0.02% UC IRVINE
0.01% ARIZONA STATE
0.01% NORTHEASTERN
0.01% LIBERTY
0.01% VERMONT
0.01% YALE
0.01% TEMPLE
0.00% SAINT LOUIS
0.00% GEORGIA STATE
0.00% ST. JOHN'S
0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
0.00% OLD DOMINION
0.00% COLGATE
0.00% MONTANA
0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
0.00% GARDNER-WEBB
0.00% IONA
0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
```
```*19.90% VIRGINIA
18.47% GONZAGA
12.43% DUKE
11.21% NORTH CAROLINA
9.97% MICHIGAN STATE
5.08% MICHIGAN
4.55% KENTUCKY
3.16% PURDUE
2.99% TENNESSEE
2.59% TEXAS TECH
1.31% VIRGINIA TECH
1.15% AUBURN
1.08% HOUSTON
0.88% FLORIDA STATE
0.85% WISCONSIN
0.54% IOWA STATE
0.43% KANSAS STATE
0.41% LSU
0.41% LOUISVILLE
0.39% KANSAS
0.30% BUFFALO
0.28% WOFFORD
0.28% MARYLAND
0.28% MISSISSIPPI STATE
0.16% MARQUETTE
0.12% VILLANOVA
0.09% FLORIDA
0.07% SYRACUSE
0.07% CINCINNATI
0.06% SAINT MARY'S
0.05% OREGON
0.05% VCU
0.04% IOWA
0.03% UTAH STATE
0.03% OKLAHOMA
0.03% OHIO STATE
0.03% BAYLOR
0.02% OLE MISS
0.02% MINNESOTA
0.02% UCF
0.01% NEW MEXICO STATE
0.01% WASHINGTON
0.01% SETON HALL
0.01% MURRAY STATE
0.01% BELMONT
0.00% ARIZONA STATE
0.00% UC IRVINE
0.00% LIBERTY
0.00% NORTHEASTERN
0.00% VERMONT
0.00% TEMPLE
0.00% YALE
0.00% SAINT LOUIS
0.00% ST. JOHN'S
0.00% GEORGIA STATE
0.00% NORTHERN KENTUCKY
0.00% OLD DOMINION
0.00% COLGATE
0.00% MONTANA
0.00% ABILENE CHRISTIAN
0.00% GARDNER-WEBB
0.00% IONA
0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE
0.00% FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M
0.00% NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
```

Selection Notes Delayed this year due to poorly timed work travel...

For the first year of using the new NET ranking system, it is difficult to assess what is or is not following precedent. That said, it is worthwhile to compare the selections and seedings against the available metrics. Here are a few notes:

• Overall, the selection process seems very poorly correlated to the old RPI metric (or even to my "improved" version of it). This would validate the notion that the selection committee has moved on from use of the RPI.
• Interestingly, advanced win/loss metrics (such as my "standard" and "win-loss" ratings) correlate better to the selections than do the NCAA's new NET ratings. And, blended metrics (a combination of win/loss and score-based, such as my "pairwise" and "pseudopoll") correlate better still to the selections. This hopefully indicates the committee is treating the NET ratings with an appropriate grain of salt.
• The committee still seems to include conference records into account, as my "pairwise" rating (basically the pseudo-poll with some conference adjustments) is the best of my ratings to correlate with the seedings. Mixing 80% pairwise with 20% predictive (which increases the impact of margin of victory) gives the best overall prediction of the seedings.
The only real head-scratchers had to do with the selection of the final at-large bids. In particular, St. John's was ranked #73 inthe NET rankings, #53 in my Pairwise rankings, and #91 in my Predictive (score-based) ranking. NC State or Clemson would have been an obvious choice to replace them, as both teams are 11 or more spots higher in all three of the rankings. Oddly, neither of those teams was even listed among the "first four out". Arizona State and Belmont were also well behind NC State and Clemson in those three metrics.
* Denotes team advanced