Basketball Tournament Predictions (2026)

Number of Upsets

Are there more upsets in the NCAA tournament than if these were just regular season games? For this analysis, "upset" is defined by a team with less than a 50% chance (as calculated below) winning its game (generally the same as the betting underdog) rather than based on committee seeding. Here are the results for this tournament:

First Four: 1.7 predicted, 3 actual
First Round: 6.0 predicted, 6 actual
Second Round: 4.6 predicted, 3 actual
Grand Total: 12.3 predicted, 12 actual

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 20

Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

*88.64% DUKE *83.88% MICHIGAN *82.26% ARIZONA *81.84% ILLINOIS *80.91% ARKANSAS *80.25% HOUSTON *75.62% PURDUE 75.42% GONZAGA 75.11% FLORIDA *71.45% IOWA STATE *66.18% UCONN *58.69% TENNESSEE *57.43% MICHIGAN STATE *54.08% ST. JOHN'S *52.88% ALABAMA 50.51% VANDERBILT *49.49% NEBRASKA 47.12% TEXAS TECH 45.92% KANSAS 42.57% LOUISVILLE 41.31% VIRGINIA 33.82% UCLA 28.55% KENTUCKY *24.89% IOWA *24.58% TEXAS 24.38% MIAMI 19.75% TEXAS A&M 19.09% HIGH POINT 18.16% VCU 17.74% UTAH STATE 16.12% SAINT LOUIS 11.36% TCU

67.69% DUKE 64.27% ARIZONA 60.65% MICHIGAN 52.31% FLORIDA 48.02% HOUSTON 46.97% IOWA STATE 42.87% GONZAGA 42.44% ILLINOIS 42.09% PURDUE 34.82% UCONN 32.17% MICHIGAN STATE 25.77% TENNESSEE 25.70% ARKANSAS 20.73% LOUISVILLE 18.73% VANDERBILT 18.47% ALABAMA 18.13% NEBRASKA 16.35% ST. JOHN'S 15.30% TEXAS TECH 14.76% VIRGINIA 12.49% KENTUCKY 12.41% KANSAS 12.29% UCLA 10.82% IOWA 8.12% UTAH STATE 7.70% TEXAS 7.34% MIAMI 5.74% TEXAS A&M 5.58% SAINT LOUIS 3.80% VCU 3.55% TCU 1.91% HIGH POINT

50.57% DUKE 42.28% ARIZONA 40.52% MICHIGAN 28.87% FLORIDA 28.66% HOUSTON 24.12% IOWA STATE 23.58% ILLINOIS 20.69% GONZAGA 20.07% PURDUE 12.96% UCONN 12.13% MICHIGAN STATE 10.49% ARKANSAS 10.18% TENNESSEE 8.43% ALABAMA 8.17% ST. JOHN'S 6.72% VANDERBILT 6.56% TEXAS TECH 6.48% LOUISVILLE 6.42% NEBRASKA 5.70% KANSAS 4.69% VIRGINIA 3.84% KENTUCKY 3.24% IOWA 2.92% UCLA 2.53% UTAH STATE 1.91% TEXAS 1.77% MIAMI 1.66% SAINT LOUIS 1.63% TEXAS A&M 1.06% TCU 0.88% VCU 0.27% HIGH POINT

32.64% DUKE 25.36% ARIZONA 24.41% MICHIGAN 15.43% FLORIDA 15.23% HOUSTON 12.57% IOWA STATE 11.57% ILLINOIS 9.97% GONZAGA 9.55% PURDUE 5.44% UCONN 5.16% MICHIGAN STATE 4.07% TENNESSEE 3.70% ARKANSAS 3.29% ALABAMA 3.18% ST. JOHN'S 2.39% TEXAS TECH 2.34% VANDERBILT 2.30% LOUISVILLE 2.21% NEBRASKA 2.00% KANSAS 1.51% VIRGINIA 1.20% KENTUCKY 0.94% IOWA 0.79% UCLA 0.66% UTAH STATE 0.46% TEXAS 0.42% MIAMI 0.41% SAINT LOUIS 0.38% TEXAS A&M 0.22% TCU 0.17% VCU 0.03% HIGH POINT

20.05% DUKE 14.55% ARIZONA 14.10% MICHIGAN 8.05% FLORIDA 7.90% HOUSTON 6.22% IOWA STATE 5.52% ILLINOIS 4.53% GONZAGA 4.28% PURDUE 2.12% UCONN 2.03% MICHIGAN STATE 1.53% TENNESSEE 1.21% ARKANSAS 1.21% ALABAMA 1.14% ST. JOHN'S 0.81% TEXAS TECH 0.77% VANDERBILT 0.75% LOUISVILLE 0.72% NEBRASKA 0.65% KANSAS 0.45% VIRGINIA 0.35% KENTUCKY 0.26% IOWA 0.20% UCLA 0.16% UTAH STATE 0.10% TEXAS 0.09% SAINT LOUIS 0.09% MIAMI 0.08% TEXAS A&M 0.04% TCU 0.03% VCU 0.00% HIGH POINT

Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
88.64% DUKE 83.88% MICHIGAN 82.26% ARIZONA 81.84% ILLINOIS 80.91% ARKANSAS 80.25% HOUSTON 75.62% PURDUE 75.42% GONZAGA 75.11% FLORIDA 71.45% IOWA STATE 66.18% UCONN 58.69% TENNESSEE 57.43% MICHIGAN STATE 54.08% ST. JOHN'S 52.88% ALABAMA 50.51% VANDERBILT 49.49% NEBRASKA 47.12% TEXAS TECH 45.92% KANSAS 42.57% LOUISVILLE 41.31% VIRGINIA 33.82% UCLA 28.55% KENTUCKY 24.89% IOWA 24.58% TEXAS 24.38% MIAMI 19.75% TEXAS A&M 19.09% HIGH POINT 18.16% VCU 17.74% UTAH STATE 16.12% SAINT LOUIS 11.36% TCU	67.69% DUKE 64.27% ARIZONA 60.65% MICHIGAN 52.31% FLORIDA 48.02% HOUSTON 46.97% IOWA STATE 42.87% GONZAGA 42.44% ILLINOIS 42.09% PURDUE 34.82% UCONN 32.17% MICHIGAN STATE 25.77% TENNESSEE 25.70% ARKANSAS 20.73% LOUISVILLE 18.73% VANDERBILT 18.47% ALABAMA 18.13% NEBRASKA 16.35% ST. JOHN'S 15.30% TEXAS TECH 14.76% VIRGINIA 12.49% KENTUCKY 12.41% KANSAS 12.29% UCLA 10.82% IOWA 8.12% UTAH STATE 7.70% TEXAS 7.34% MIAMI 5.74% TEXAS A&M 5.58% SAINT LOUIS 3.80% VCU 3.55% TCU 1.91% HIGH POINT	50.57% DUKE 42.28% ARIZONA 40.52% MICHIGAN 28.87% FLORIDA 28.66% HOUSTON 24.12% IOWA STATE 23.58% ILLINOIS 20.69% GONZAGA 20.07% PURDUE 12.96% UCONN 12.13% MICHIGAN STATE 10.49% ARKANSAS 10.18% TENNESSEE 8.43% ALABAMA 8.17% ST. JOHN'S 6.72% VANDERBILT 6.56% TEXAS TECH 6.48% LOUISVILLE 6.42% NEBRASKA 5.70% KANSAS 4.69% VIRGINIA 3.84% KENTUCKY 3.24% IOWA 2.92% UCLA 2.53% UTAH STATE 1.91% TEXAS 1.77% MIAMI 1.66% SAINT LOUIS 1.63% TEXAS A&M 1.06% TCU 0.88% VCU 0.27% HIGH POINT	32.64% DUKE 25.36% ARIZONA 24.41% MICHIGAN 15.43% FLORIDA 15.23% HOUSTON 12.57% IOWA STATE 11.57% ILLINOIS 9.97% GONZAGA 9.55% PURDUE 5.44% UCONN 5.16% MICHIGAN STATE 4.07% TENNESSEE 3.70% ARKANSAS 3.29% ALABAMA 3.18% ST. JOHN'S 2.39% TEXAS TECH 2.34% VANDERBILT 2.30% LOUISVILLE 2.21% NEBRASKA 2.00% KANSAS 1.51% VIRGINIA 1.20% KENTUCKY 0.94% IOWA 0.79% UCLA 0.66% UTAH STATE 0.46% TEXAS 0.42% MIAMI 0.41% SAINT LOUIS 0.38% TEXAS A&M 0.22% TCU 0.17% VCU 0.03% HIGH POINT	20.05% DUKE 14.55% ARIZONA 14.10% MICHIGAN 8.05% FLORIDA 7.90% HOUSTON 6.22% IOWA STATE 5.52% ILLINOIS 4.53% GONZAGA 4.28% PURDUE 2.12% UCONN 2.03% MICHIGAN STATE 1.53% TENNESSEE 1.21% ARKANSAS 1.21% ALABAMA 1.14% ST. JOHN'S 0.81% TEXAS TECH 0.77% VANDERBILT 0.75% LOUISVILLE 0.72% NEBRASKA 0.65% KANSAS 0.45% VIRGINIA 0.35% KENTUCKY 0.26% IOWA 0.20% UCLA 0.16% UTAH STATE 0.10% TEXAS 0.09% SAINT LOUIS 0.09% MIAMI 0.08% TEXAS A&M 0.04% TCU 0.03% VCU 0.00% HIGH POINT

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 18

Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

*99.69% FLORIDA *99.37% ARIZONA *99.28% DUKE *99.23% MICHIGAN *98.31% IOWA STATE *98.21% HOUSTON *97.79% PURDUE *96.99% ILLINOIS *96.74% GONZAGA *95.48% UCONN *92.44% MICHIGAN STATE *91.59% VIRGINIA *91.01% NEBRASKA *90.40% KANSAS *89.57% ARKANSAS *87.95% TENNESSEE *87.07% ALABAMA *82.34% VANDERBILT *82.04% ST. JOHN'S *78.77% TEXAS TECH 76.80% WISCONSIN *73.86% LOUISVILLE *66.22% UCLA 64.39% NORTH CAROLINA *63.38% KENTUCKY 61.80% BYU 59.78% OHIO STATE *59.61% MIAMI 58.53% SAINT MARY'S 55.55% GEORGIA *55.30% IOWA *52.49% UTAH STATE 47.51% VILLANOVA 44.70% CLEMSON *44.45% SAINT LOUIS *41.47% TEXAS A&M 40.39% MISSOURI *40.22% TCU *38.20% TEXAS 36.62% SANTA CLARA *35.61% VCU 33.78% UCF 26.14% SOUTH FLORIDA *23.20% HIGH POINT 21.23% AKRON 17.96% NORTHERN IOWA 17.66% MCNEESE 12.93% HOFSTRA 12.05% MIAMI (OH) 10.43% HAWAI'I 9.60% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 8.99% TROY 8.41% WRIGHT STATE 7.56% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 4.52% FURMAN 3.26% KENNESAW STATE 3.01% PENNSYLVANIA 2.21% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 1.79% IDAHO 1.69% TENNESSEE STATE 0.77% HOWARD 0.72% SIENA 0.63% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.31% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

*85.99% DUKE *83.01% MICHIGAN *82.65% ARIZONA *76.80% PURDUE *75.56% HOUSTON 75.54% FLORIDA *73.68% IOWA STATE *72.24% ILLINOIS 68.57% GONZAGA *68.05% UCONN *57.57% MICHIGAN STATE *55.51% ARKANSAS *52.96% TENNESSEE *51.32% ALABAMA *49.13% NEBRASKA 48.46% KANSAS *45.96% ST. JOHN'S 45.64% VANDERBILT 43.82% VIRGINIA 40.92% TEXAS TECH 37.09% WISCONSIN 34.77% LOUISVILLE 23.73% UCLA 21.55% BYU 20.22% NORTH CAROLINA 19.00% KENTUCKY 15.77% SAINT MARY'S 15.33% MIAMI *14.54% IOWA 10.25% GEORGIA 9.91% CLEMSON 9.58% OHIO STATE * 9.55% TEXAS 9.47% UTAH STATE 8.51% TEXAS A&M 7.84% VILLANOVA 7.61% MISSOURI 7.60% UCF 7.19% VCU 7.19% SANTA CLARA 6.69% SAINT LOUIS 6.57% SOUTH FLORIDA 5.46% HIGH POINT 5.18% AKRON 4.37% TCU 4.33% NORTHERN IOWA 4.11% MCNEESE 2.58% HOFSTRA 2.42% MIAMI (OH) 1.94% HAWAI'I 1.25% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 1.12% TROY 1.09% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.80% WRIGHT STATE 0.62% FURMAN 0.35% PENNSYLVANIA 0.33% KENNESAW STATE 0.25% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.16% IDAHO 0.13% TENNESSEE STATE 0.07% SIENA 0.06% HOWARD 0.04% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.01% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

68.10% DUKE 64.11% ARIZONA 62.32% MICHIGAN 52.79% FLORIDA 49.10% IOWA STATE 45.93% HOUSTON 41.55% PURDUE 40.33% GONZAGA 37.75% ILLINOIS 37.58% UCONN 32.19% MICHIGAN STATE 23.29% TENNESSEE 18.26% NEBRASKA 17.77% ARKANSAS 17.72% VANDERBILT 17.42% ALABAMA 17.29% LOUISVILLE 16.36% VIRGINIA 13.04% ST. JOHN'S 12.90% KANSAS 12.85% TEXAS TECH 10.04% WISCONSIN 9.16% UCLA 9.10% BYU 8.61% KENTUCKY 6.64% IOWA 6.57% NORTH CAROLINA 5.73% SAINT MARY'S 4.36% MIAMI 4.23% GEORGIA 4.16% UTAH STATE 4.09% OHIO STATE 4.02% CLEMSON 3.26% VILLANOVA 3.02% TEXAS 2.47% TEXAS A&M 2.41% SAINT LOUIS 2.34% SANTA CLARA 1.85% UCF 1.76% SOUTH FLORIDA 1.61% MISSOURI 1.52% VCU 1.46% TCU 0.58% AKRON 0.55% HIGH POINT 0.50% MCNEESE 0.35% NORTHERN IOWA 0.25% MIAMI (OH) 0.19% HOFSTRA 0.12% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.10% HAWAI'I 0.06% TROY 0.05% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.04% WRIGHT STATE 0.04% FURMAN 0.02% KENNESAW STATE 0.02% PENNSYLVANIA 0.01% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.01% IDAHO 0.01% TENNESSEE STATE 0.00% SIENA 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

51.92% DUKE 42.28% MICHIGAN 41.83% ARIZONA 29.12% FLORIDA 27.76% HOUSTON 24.76% IOWA STATE 21.22% ILLINOIS 20.19% GONZAGA 19.86% PURDUE 13.87% UCONN 11.70% MICHIGAN STATE 8.95% TENNESSEE 7.92% ALABAMA 7.18% ARKANSAS 6.65% VANDERBILT 6.55% NEBRASKA 6.40% ST. JOHN'S 6.04% KANSAS 5.47% TEXAS TECH 5.35% LOUISVILLE 5.27% VIRGINIA 3.48% WISCONSIN 3.11% BYU 2.62% KENTUCKY 2.36% NORTH CAROLINA 2.13% UCLA 2.07% IOWA 2.06% SAINT MARY'S 1.58% OHIO STATE 1.41% GEORGIA 1.26% UTAH STATE 1.08% CLEMSON 1.05% MIAMI 0.92% VILLANOVA 0.74% TEXAS 0.70% TEXAS A&M 0.69% SAINT LOUIS 0.48% SANTA CLARA 0.44% TCU 0.36% VCU 0.29% MISSOURI 0.25% UCF 0.25% SOUTH FLORIDA 0.10% AKRON 0.07% HIGH POINT 0.06% NORTHERN IOWA 0.06% MCNEESE 0.02% HOFSTRA 0.02% MIAMI (OH) 0.01% HAWAI'I 0.01% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.00% TROY 0.00% WRIGHT STATE 0.00% FURMAN 0.00% KENNESAW STATE 0.00% PENNSYLVANIA 0.00% IDAHO 0.00% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.00% SIENA 0.00% TENNESSEE STATE 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

35.18% DUKE 25.91% MICHIGAN 24.74% ARIZONA 14.68% FLORIDA 14.21% HOUSTON 12.85% IOWA STATE 9.98% ILLINOIS 9.88% GONZAGA 9.26% PURDUE 6.14% UCONN 5.11% MICHIGAN STATE 3.54% TENNESSEE 3.07% ALABAMA 2.52% ST. JOHN'S 2.49% ARKANSAS 2.25% KANSAS 2.25% VANDERBILT 2.11% NEBRASKA 2.01% LOUISVILLE 1.97% TEXAS TECH 1.75% VIRGINIA 1.03% WISCONSIN 1.02% BYU 0.82% KENTUCKY 0.67% NORTH CAROLINA 0.61% UCLA 0.58% SAINT MARY'S 0.58% IOWA 0.47% OHIO STATE 0.39% GEORGIA 0.32% UTAH STATE 0.26% CLEMSON 0.24% MIAMI 0.22% VILLANOVA 0.17% TEXAS 0.16% SAINT LOUIS 0.15% TEXAS A&M 0.10% SANTA CLARA 0.10% TCU 0.06% VCU 0.05% MISSOURI 0.04% SOUTH FLORIDA 0.04% UCF 0.01% AKRON 0.01% HIGH POINT 0.01% NORTHERN IOWA 0.01% MCNEESE 0.00% HOFSTRA 0.00% MIAMI (OH) 0.00% HAWAI'I 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.00% TROY 0.00% WRIGHT STATE 0.00% FURMAN 0.00% KENNESAW STATE 0.00% PENNSYLVANIA 0.00% IDAHO 0.00% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.00% SIENA 0.00% TENNESSEE STATE 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

22.16% DUKE 15.08% MICHIGAN 14.01% ARIZONA 7.36% FLORIDA 7.24% HOUSTON 6.27% IOWA STATE 4.65% ILLINOIS 4.59% GONZAGA 4.08% PURDUE 2.42% UCONN 1.98% MICHIGAN STATE 1.30% TENNESSEE 1.10% ALABAMA 0.87% ST. JOHN'S 0.81% ARKANSAS 0.74% VANDERBILT 0.73% KANSAS 0.66% LOUISVILLE 0.66% NEBRASKA 0.65% TEXAS TECH 0.53% VIRGINIA 0.31% BYU 0.28% WISCONSIN 0.24% KENTUCKY 0.18% NORTH CAROLINA 0.16% SAINT MARY'S 0.16% IOWA 0.15% UCLA 0.12% OHIO STATE 0.10% GEORGIA 0.08% UTAH STATE 0.06% CLEMSON 0.05% MIAMI 0.05% VILLANOVA 0.04% TEXAS 0.03% SAINT LOUIS 0.03% TEXAS A&M 0.02% SANTA CLARA 0.02% TCU 0.01% VCU 0.01% MISSOURI 0.01% SOUTH FLORIDA 0.01% UCF 0.00% AKRON 0.00% NORTHERN IOWA 0.00% HIGH POINT 0.00% MCNEESE 0.00% HOFSTRA 0.00% MIAMI (OH) 0.00% HAWAI'I 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.00% TROY 0.00% WRIGHT STATE 0.00% FURMAN 0.00% KENNESAW STATE 0.00% PENNSYLVANIA 0.00% IDAHO 0.00% SIENA 0.00% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.00% TENNESSEE STATE 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
99.69% FLORIDA 99.37% ARIZONA 99.28% DUKE 99.23% MICHIGAN 98.31% IOWA STATE 98.21% HOUSTON 97.79% PURDUE 96.99% ILLINOIS 96.74% GONZAGA 95.48% UCONN 92.44% MICHIGAN STATE 91.59% VIRGINIA 91.01% NEBRASKA 90.40% KANSAS 89.57% ARKANSAS 87.95% TENNESSEE 87.07% ALABAMA 82.34% VANDERBILT 82.04% ST. JOHN'S 78.77% TEXAS TECH 76.80% WISCONSIN 73.86% LOUISVILLE 66.22% UCLA 64.39% NORTH CAROLINA 63.38% KENTUCKY 61.80% BYU 59.78% OHIO STATE 59.61% MIAMI 58.53% SAINT MARY'S 55.55% GEORGIA 55.30% IOWA 52.49% UTAH STATE 47.51% VILLANOVA 44.70% CLEMSON 44.45% SAINT LOUIS 41.47% TEXAS A&M 40.39% MISSOURI 40.22% TCU 38.20% TEXAS 36.62% SANTA CLARA 35.61% VCU 33.78% UCF 26.14% SOUTH FLORIDA 23.20% HIGH POINT 21.23% AKRON 17.96% NORTHERN IOWA 17.66% MCNEESE 12.93% HOFSTRA 12.05% MIAMI (OH) 10.43% HAWAI'I 9.60% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 8.99% TROY 8.41% WRIGHT STATE 7.56% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 4.52% FURMAN 3.26% KENNESAW STATE 3.01% PENNSYLVANIA 2.21% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 1.79% IDAHO 1.69% TENNESSEE STATE 0.77% HOWARD 0.72% SIENA 0.63% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.31% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M	85.99% DUKE 83.01% MICHIGAN 82.65% ARIZONA 76.80% PURDUE 75.56% HOUSTON 75.54% FLORIDA 73.68% IOWA STATE 72.24% ILLINOIS 68.57% GONZAGA 68.05% UCONN 57.57% MICHIGAN STATE 55.51% ARKANSAS 52.96% TENNESSEE 51.32% ALABAMA 49.13% NEBRASKA 48.46% KANSAS 45.96% ST. JOHN'S 45.64% VANDERBILT 43.82% VIRGINIA 40.92% TEXAS TECH 37.09% WISCONSIN 34.77% LOUISVILLE 23.73% UCLA 21.55% BYU 20.22% NORTH CAROLINA 19.00% KENTUCKY 15.77% SAINT MARY'S 15.33% MIAMI 14.54% IOWA 10.25% GEORGIA 9.91% CLEMSON 9.58% OHIO STATE 9.55% TEXAS 9.47% UTAH STATE 8.51% TEXAS A&M 7.84% VILLANOVA 7.61% MISSOURI 7.60% UCF 7.19% VCU 7.19% SANTA CLARA 6.69% SAINT LOUIS 6.57% SOUTH FLORIDA 5.46% HIGH POINT 5.18% AKRON 4.37% TCU 4.33% NORTHERN IOWA 4.11% MCNEESE 2.58% HOFSTRA 2.42% MIAMI (OH) 1.94% HAWAI'I 1.25% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 1.12% TROY 1.09% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.80% WRIGHT STATE 0.62% FURMAN 0.35% PENNSYLVANIA 0.33% KENNESAW STATE 0.25% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.16% IDAHO 0.13% TENNESSEE STATE 0.07% SIENA 0.06% HOWARD 0.04% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.01% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M	68.10% DUKE 64.11% ARIZONA 62.32% MICHIGAN 52.79% FLORIDA 49.10% IOWA STATE 45.93% HOUSTON 41.55% PURDUE 40.33% GONZAGA 37.75% ILLINOIS 37.58% UCONN 32.19% MICHIGAN STATE 23.29% TENNESSEE 18.26% NEBRASKA 17.77% ARKANSAS 17.72% VANDERBILT 17.42% ALABAMA 17.29% LOUISVILLE 16.36% VIRGINIA 13.04% ST. JOHN'S 12.90% KANSAS 12.85% TEXAS TECH 10.04% WISCONSIN 9.16% UCLA 9.10% BYU 8.61% KENTUCKY 6.64% IOWA 6.57% NORTH CAROLINA 5.73% SAINT MARY'S 4.36% MIAMI 4.23% GEORGIA 4.16% UTAH STATE 4.09% OHIO STATE 4.02% CLEMSON 3.26% VILLANOVA 3.02% TEXAS 2.47% TEXAS A&M 2.41% SAINT LOUIS 2.34% SANTA CLARA 1.85% UCF 1.76% SOUTH FLORIDA 1.61% MISSOURI 1.52% VCU 1.46% TCU 0.58% AKRON 0.55% HIGH POINT 0.50% MCNEESE 0.35% NORTHERN IOWA 0.25% MIAMI (OH) 0.19% HOFSTRA 0.12% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.10% HAWAI'I 0.06% TROY 0.05% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.04% WRIGHT STATE 0.04% FURMAN 0.02% KENNESAW STATE 0.02% PENNSYLVANIA 0.01% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.01% IDAHO 0.01% TENNESSEE STATE 0.00% SIENA 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M	51.92% DUKE 42.28% MICHIGAN 41.83% ARIZONA 29.12% FLORIDA 27.76% HOUSTON 24.76% IOWA STATE 21.22% ILLINOIS 20.19% GONZAGA 19.86% PURDUE 13.87% UCONN 11.70% MICHIGAN STATE 8.95% TENNESSEE 7.92% ALABAMA 7.18% ARKANSAS 6.65% VANDERBILT 6.55% NEBRASKA 6.40% ST. JOHN'S 6.04% KANSAS 5.47% TEXAS TECH 5.35% LOUISVILLE 5.27% VIRGINIA 3.48% WISCONSIN 3.11% BYU 2.62% KENTUCKY 2.36% NORTH CAROLINA 2.13% UCLA 2.07% IOWA 2.06% SAINT MARY'S 1.58% OHIO STATE 1.41% GEORGIA 1.26% UTAH STATE 1.08% CLEMSON 1.05% MIAMI 0.92% VILLANOVA 0.74% TEXAS 0.70% TEXAS A&M 0.69% SAINT LOUIS 0.48% SANTA CLARA 0.44% TCU 0.36% VCU 0.29% MISSOURI 0.25% UCF 0.25% SOUTH FLORIDA 0.10% AKRON 0.07% HIGH POINT 0.06% NORTHERN IOWA 0.06% MCNEESE 0.02% HOFSTRA 0.02% MIAMI (OH) 0.01% HAWAI'I 0.01% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.00% TROY 0.00% WRIGHT STATE 0.00% FURMAN 0.00% KENNESAW STATE 0.00% PENNSYLVANIA 0.00% IDAHO 0.00% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.00% SIENA 0.00% TENNESSEE STATE 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M	35.18% DUKE 25.91% MICHIGAN 24.74% ARIZONA 14.68% FLORIDA 14.21% HOUSTON 12.85% IOWA STATE 9.98% ILLINOIS 9.88% GONZAGA 9.26% PURDUE 6.14% UCONN 5.11% MICHIGAN STATE 3.54% TENNESSEE 3.07% ALABAMA 2.52% ST. JOHN'S 2.49% ARKANSAS 2.25% KANSAS 2.25% VANDERBILT 2.11% NEBRASKA 2.01% LOUISVILLE 1.97% TEXAS TECH 1.75% VIRGINIA 1.03% WISCONSIN 1.02% BYU 0.82% KENTUCKY 0.67% NORTH CAROLINA 0.61% UCLA 0.58% SAINT MARY'S 0.58% IOWA 0.47% OHIO STATE 0.39% GEORGIA 0.32% UTAH STATE 0.26% CLEMSON 0.24% MIAMI 0.22% VILLANOVA 0.17% TEXAS 0.16% SAINT LOUIS 0.15% TEXAS A&M 0.10% SANTA CLARA 0.10% TCU 0.06% VCU 0.05% MISSOURI 0.04% SOUTH FLORIDA 0.04% UCF 0.01% AKRON 0.01% HIGH POINT 0.01% NORTHERN IOWA 0.01% MCNEESE 0.00% HOFSTRA 0.00% MIAMI (OH) 0.00% HAWAI'I 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.00% TROY 0.00% WRIGHT STATE 0.00% FURMAN 0.00% KENNESAW STATE 0.00% PENNSYLVANIA 0.00% IDAHO 0.00% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.00% SIENA 0.00% TENNESSEE STATE 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M	22.16% DUKE 15.08% MICHIGAN 14.01% ARIZONA 7.36% FLORIDA 7.24% HOUSTON 6.27% IOWA STATE 4.65% ILLINOIS 4.59% GONZAGA 4.08% PURDUE 2.42% UCONN 1.98% MICHIGAN STATE 1.30% TENNESSEE 1.10% ALABAMA 0.87% ST. JOHN'S 0.81% ARKANSAS 0.74% VANDERBILT 0.73% KANSAS 0.66% LOUISVILLE 0.66% NEBRASKA 0.65% TEXAS TECH 0.53% VIRGINIA 0.31% BYU 0.28% WISCONSIN 0.24% KENTUCKY 0.18% NORTH CAROLINA 0.16% SAINT MARY'S 0.16% IOWA 0.15% UCLA 0.12% OHIO STATE 0.10% GEORGIA 0.08% UTAH STATE 0.06% CLEMSON 0.05% MIAMI 0.05% VILLANOVA 0.04% TEXAS 0.03% SAINT LOUIS 0.03% TEXAS A&M 0.02% SANTA CLARA 0.02% TCU 0.01% VCU 0.01% MISSOURI 0.01% SOUTH FLORIDA 0.01% UCF 0.00% AKRON 0.00% NORTHERN IOWA 0.00% HIGH POINT 0.00% MCNEESE 0.00% HOFSTRA 0.00% MIAMI (OH) 0.00% HAWAI'I 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.00% TROY 0.00% WRIGHT STATE 0.00% FURMAN 0.00% KENNESAW STATE 0.00% PENNSYLVANIA 0.00% IDAHO 0.00% SIENA 0.00% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.00% TENNESSEE STATE 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

Odds of Advancing to Round, March 15

First Round Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion

74.37% SMU 56.37% LEHIGH 53.14% UMBC *50.11% TEXAS 49.89% NC STATE *46.86% HOWARD *43.63% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M *25.63% MIAMI (OH)

*99.62% FLORIDA *99.37% ARIZONA *99.28% DUKE *99.15% MICHIGAN *98.31% IOWA STATE *98.21% HOUSTON *97.80% PURDUE *96.97% ILLINOIS *96.72% GONZAGA *95.48% UCONN *92.38% MICHIGAN STATE *91.59% VIRGINIA *91.01% NEBRASKA *90.38% KANSAS *89.56% ARKANSAS *87.12% ALABAMA *82.40% VANDERBILT *81.93% ST. JOHN'S *78.74% TEXAS TECH 76.79% WISCONSIN *75.64% TENNESSEE *73.92% LOUISVILLE *66.17% UCLA 64.59% NORTH CAROLINA *63.53% KENTUCKY 61.99% BYU 59.74% OHIO STATE *59.64% MIAMI 58.42% SAINT MARY'S 55.77% GEORGIA *55.26% IOWA *52.33% UTAH STATE 47.67% VILLANOVA 44.74% CLEMSON *44.23% SAINT LOUIS *41.58% TEXAS A&M 40.36% MISSOURI *40.26% TCU 36.47% SANTA CLARA *35.41% VCU 33.83% UCF 26.08% SOUTH FLORIDA *23.21% HIGH POINT 21.46% SMU 21.26% AKRON *19.08% TEXAS 18.94% NC STATE 18.07% NORTHERN IOWA 17.60% MCNEESE 12.88% HOFSTRA 10.44% HAWAI'I 9.62% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 8.99% TROY 8.41% WRIGHT STATE 7.62% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 4.52% FURMAN 3.28% KENNESAW STATE 3.03% PENNSYLVANIA 2.89% MIAMI (OH) 2.20% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 1.79% IDAHO 1.69% TENNESSEE STATE 0.72% SIENA 0.63% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.50% UMBC 0.35% HOWARD 0.26% LEHIGH 0.12% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

*86.00% DUKE *82.98% MICHIGAN *82.74% ARIZONA *76.83% PURDUE *75.65% HOUSTON 75.51% FLORIDA *73.70% IOWA STATE *72.23% ILLINOIS 68.51% GONZAGA *68.08% UCONN *57.45% MICHIGAN STATE *55.55% ARKANSAS *51.36% ALABAMA *49.05% NEBRASKA 48.47% KANSAS *45.91% ST. JOHN'S 45.74% VANDERBILT *45.58% TENNESSEE 44.65% VIRGINIA 40.88% TEXAS TECH 37.05% WISCONSIN 34.88% LOUISVILLE 23.70% UCLA 21.67% BYU 20.30% NORTH CAROLINA 19.05% KENTUCKY 15.67% SAINT MARY'S 15.33% MIAMI *14.54% IOWA 10.32% GEORGIA 9.94% CLEMSON 9.56% OHIO STATE 9.37% UTAH STATE 8.53% TEXAS A&M 8.46% SMU 7.85% VILLANOVA 7.61% UCF 7.59% MISSOURI 7.12% SANTA CLARA 7.11% VCU 6.63% SAINT LOUIS 6.57% SOUTH FLORIDA 5.45% HIGH POINT 5.19% AKRON * 4.77% TEXAS 4.71% NC STATE 4.38% TCU 4.37% NORTHERN IOWA 4.10% MCNEESE 2.56% HOFSTRA 1.95% HAWAI'I 1.25% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 1.12% TROY 1.10% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.75% WRIGHT STATE 0.61% FURMAN 0.55% MIAMI (OH) 0.35% PENNSYLVANIA 0.33% KENNESAW STATE 0.25% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.16% IDAHO 0.13% TENNESSEE STATE 0.07% SIENA 0.04% UMBC 0.04% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.03% HOWARD 0.01% LEHIGH 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

68.12% DUKE 64.19% ARIZONA 62.26% MICHIGAN 52.79% FLORIDA 49.86% IOWA STATE 46.03% HOUSTON 41.66% PURDUE 40.20% GONZAGA 37.70% ILLINOIS 37.58% UCONN 32.13% MICHIGAN STATE 20.05% TENNESSEE 18.21% NEBRASKA 17.78% ARKANSAS 17.78% VANDERBILT 17.47% ALABAMA 17.38% LOUISVILLE 16.66% VIRGINIA 13.02% ST. JOHN'S 12.90% KANSAS 12.86% TEXAS TECH 10.01% WISCONSIN 9.15% BYU 9.14% UCLA 8.85% KENTUCKY 6.64% IOWA 6.59% NORTH CAROLINA 5.69% SAINT MARY'S 4.37% MIAMI 4.25% GEORGIA 4.10% UTAH STATE 4.08% OHIO STATE 4.03% CLEMSON 3.26% VILLANOVA 2.47% TEXAS A&M 2.38% SANTA CLARA 2.38% SAINT LOUIS 2.09% SMU 1.85% UCF 1.76% SOUTH FLORIDA 1.61% MISSOURI 1.50% TEXAS 1.49% VCU 1.48% NC STATE 1.47% TCU 0.58% AKRON 0.55% HIGH POINT 0.50% MCNEESE 0.36% NORTHERN IOWA 0.19% HOFSTRA 0.12% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.10% HAWAI'I 0.06% TROY 0.05% MIAMI (OH) 0.05% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.04% FURMAN 0.04% WRIGHT STATE 0.02% KENNESAW STATE 0.02% PENNSYLVANIA 0.01% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.01% TENNESSEE STATE 0.01% IDAHO 0.00% SIENA 0.00% UMBC 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LEHIGH 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

51.95% DUKE 42.38% MICHIGAN 41.92% ARIZONA 29.11% FLORIDA 27.84% HOUSTON 25.15% IOWA STATE 21.18% ILLINOIS 20.07% GONZAGA 19.91% PURDUE 13.86% UCONN 11.67% MICHIGAN STATE 8.01% ALABAMA 7.71% TENNESSEE 7.19% ARKANSAS 6.68% VANDERBILT 6.52% NEBRASKA 6.39% ST. JOHN'S 6.04% KANSAS 5.52% TEXAS TECH 5.39% LOUISVILLE 5.37% VIRGINIA 3.48% WISCONSIN 3.12% BYU 2.70% KENTUCKY 2.37% NORTH CAROLINA 2.12% UCLA 2.07% IOWA 2.04% SAINT MARY'S 1.58% OHIO STATE 1.44% GEORGIA 1.24% UTAH STATE 1.08% CLEMSON 1.06% MIAMI 0.92% VILLANOVA 0.71% TEXAS A&M 0.68% SAINT LOUIS 0.48% SANTA CLARA 0.44% TCU 0.44% SMU 0.37% TEXAS 0.36% NC STATE 0.35% VCU 0.28% MISSOURI 0.25% UCF 0.25% SOUTH FLORIDA 0.10% AKRON 0.07% HIGH POINT 0.06% NORTHERN IOWA 0.06% MCNEESE 0.02% HOFSTRA 0.01% HAWAI'I 0.01% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% MIAMI (OH) 0.00% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.00% TROY 0.00% WRIGHT STATE 0.00% FURMAN 0.00% KENNESAW STATE 0.00% PENNSYLVANIA 0.00% IDAHO 0.00% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.00% SIENA 0.00% TENNESSEE STATE 0.00% UMBC 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LEHIGH 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

35.19% DUKE 25.97% MICHIGAN 24.80% ARIZONA 14.68% FLORIDA 14.26% HOUSTON 13.06% IOWA STATE 9.95% ILLINOIS 9.80% GONZAGA 9.29% PURDUE 6.13% UCONN 5.09% MICHIGAN STATE 3.11% ALABAMA 3.06% TENNESSEE 2.51% ST. JOHN'S 2.50% ARKANSAS 2.26% VANDERBILT 2.25% KANSAS 2.10% NEBRASKA 2.03% LOUISVILLE 1.99% TEXAS TECH 1.78% VIRGINIA 1.02% WISCONSIN 1.02% BYU 0.85% KENTUCKY 0.67% NORTH CAROLINA 0.61% UCLA 0.58% IOWA 0.57% SAINT MARY'S 0.47% OHIO STATE 0.39% GEORGIA 0.31% UTAH STATE 0.26% CLEMSON 0.24% MIAMI 0.22% VILLANOVA 0.16% SAINT LOUIS 0.15% TEXAS A&M 0.10% SANTA CLARA 0.10% TCU 0.09% SMU 0.08% TEXAS 0.08% NC STATE 0.06% VCU 0.05% MISSOURI 0.04% SOUTH FLORIDA 0.04% UCF 0.01% AKRON 0.01% HIGH POINT 0.01% NORTHERN IOWA 0.01% MCNEESE 0.00% HOFSTRA 0.00% HAWAI'I 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% MIAMI (OH) 0.00% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.00% TROY 0.00% WRIGHT STATE 0.00% FURMAN 0.00% KENNESAW STATE 0.00% PENNSYLVANIA 0.00% IDAHO 0.00% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.00% SIENA 0.00% TENNESSEE STATE 0.00% UMBC 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% LEHIGH 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

22.17% DUKE 15.10% MICHIGAN 14.05% ARIZONA 7.36% FLORIDA 7.27% HOUSTON 6.37% IOWA STATE 4.64% ILLINOIS 4.54% GONZAGA 4.10% PURDUE 2.41% UCONN 1.97% MICHIGAN STATE 1.12% TENNESSEE 1.11% ALABAMA 0.87% ST. JOHN'S 0.81% ARKANSAS 0.74% VANDERBILT 0.73% KANSAS 0.67% LOUISVILLE 0.66% TEXAS TECH 0.66% NEBRASKA 0.54% VIRGINIA 0.31% BYU 0.28% WISCONSIN 0.24% KENTUCKY 0.18% NORTH CAROLINA 0.16% SAINT MARY'S 0.15% IOWA 0.15% UCLA 0.12% OHIO STATE 0.10% GEORGIA 0.07% UTAH STATE 0.06% CLEMSON 0.05% MIAMI 0.05% VILLANOVA 0.03% SAINT LOUIS 0.03% TEXAS A&M 0.02% SANTA CLARA 0.02% TCU 0.02% TEXAS 0.02% SMU 0.02% NC STATE 0.01% VCU 0.01% MISSOURI 0.01% SOUTH FLORIDA 0.01% UCF 0.00% AKRON 0.00% NORTHERN IOWA 0.00% HIGH POINT 0.00% MCNEESE 0.00% HOFSTRA 0.00% MIAMI (OH) 0.00% HAWAI'I 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.00% TROY 0.00% WRIGHT STATE 0.00% FURMAN 0.00% KENNESAW STATE 0.00% PENNSYLVANIA 0.00% IDAHO 0.00% SIENA 0.00% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.00% TENNESSEE STATE 0.00% UMBC 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% LEHIGH 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

First Round	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Elite Eight	Final Four	Finals	Champion
74.37% SMU 56.37% LEHIGH 53.14% UMBC 50.11% TEXAS 49.89% NC STATE 46.86% HOWARD 43.63% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 25.63% MIAMI (OH)	99.62% FLORIDA 99.37% ARIZONA 99.28% DUKE 99.15% MICHIGAN 98.31% IOWA STATE 98.21% HOUSTON 97.80% PURDUE 96.97% ILLINOIS 96.72% GONZAGA 95.48% UCONN 92.38% MICHIGAN STATE 91.59% VIRGINIA 91.01% NEBRASKA 90.38% KANSAS 89.56% ARKANSAS 87.12% ALABAMA 82.40% VANDERBILT 81.93% ST. JOHN'S 78.74% TEXAS TECH 76.79% WISCONSIN 75.64% TENNESSEE 73.92% LOUISVILLE 66.17% UCLA 64.59% NORTH CAROLINA 63.53% KENTUCKY 61.99% BYU 59.74% OHIO STATE 59.64% MIAMI 58.42% SAINT MARY'S 55.77% GEORGIA 55.26% IOWA 52.33% UTAH STATE 47.67% VILLANOVA 44.74% CLEMSON 44.23% SAINT LOUIS 41.58% TEXAS A&M 40.36% MISSOURI 40.26% TCU 36.47% SANTA CLARA 35.41% VCU 33.83% UCF 26.08% SOUTH FLORIDA 23.21% HIGH POINT 21.46% SMU 21.26% AKRON 19.08% TEXAS 18.94% NC STATE 18.07% NORTHERN IOWA 17.60% MCNEESE 12.88% HOFSTRA 10.44% HAWAI'I 9.62% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 8.99% TROY 8.41% WRIGHT STATE 7.62% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 4.52% FURMAN 3.28% KENNESAW STATE 3.03% PENNSYLVANIA 2.89% MIAMI (OH) 2.20% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 1.79% IDAHO 1.69% TENNESSEE STATE 0.72% SIENA 0.63% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.50% UMBC 0.35% HOWARD 0.26% LEHIGH 0.12% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M	86.00% DUKE 82.98% MICHIGAN 82.74% ARIZONA 76.83% PURDUE 75.65% HOUSTON 75.51% FLORIDA 73.70% IOWA STATE 72.23% ILLINOIS 68.51% GONZAGA 68.08% UCONN 57.45% MICHIGAN STATE 55.55% ARKANSAS 51.36% ALABAMA 49.05% NEBRASKA 48.47% KANSAS 45.91% ST. JOHN'S 45.74% VANDERBILT 45.58% TENNESSEE 44.65% VIRGINIA 40.88% TEXAS TECH 37.05% WISCONSIN 34.88% LOUISVILLE 23.70% UCLA 21.67% BYU 20.30% NORTH CAROLINA 19.05% KENTUCKY 15.67% SAINT MARY'S 15.33% MIAMI 14.54% IOWA 10.32% GEORGIA 9.94% CLEMSON 9.56% OHIO STATE 9.37% UTAH STATE 8.53% TEXAS A&M 8.46% SMU 7.85% VILLANOVA 7.61% UCF 7.59% MISSOURI 7.12% SANTA CLARA 7.11% VCU 6.63% SAINT LOUIS 6.57% SOUTH FLORIDA 5.45% HIGH POINT 5.19% AKRON 4.77% TEXAS 4.71% NC STATE 4.38% TCU 4.37% NORTHERN IOWA 4.10% MCNEESE 2.56% HOFSTRA 1.95% HAWAI'I 1.25% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 1.12% TROY 1.10% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.75% WRIGHT STATE 0.61% FURMAN 0.55% MIAMI (OH) 0.35% PENNSYLVANIA 0.33% KENNESAW STATE 0.25% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.16% IDAHO 0.13% TENNESSEE STATE 0.07% SIENA 0.04% UMBC 0.04% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.03% HOWARD 0.01% LEHIGH 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M	68.12% DUKE 64.19% ARIZONA 62.26% MICHIGAN 52.79% FLORIDA 49.86% IOWA STATE 46.03% HOUSTON 41.66% PURDUE 40.20% GONZAGA 37.70% ILLINOIS 37.58% UCONN 32.13% MICHIGAN STATE 20.05% TENNESSEE 18.21% NEBRASKA 17.78% ARKANSAS 17.78% VANDERBILT 17.47% ALABAMA 17.38% LOUISVILLE 16.66% VIRGINIA 13.02% ST. JOHN'S 12.90% KANSAS 12.86% TEXAS TECH 10.01% WISCONSIN 9.15% BYU 9.14% UCLA 8.85% KENTUCKY 6.64% IOWA 6.59% NORTH CAROLINA 5.69% SAINT MARY'S 4.37% MIAMI 4.25% GEORGIA 4.10% UTAH STATE 4.08% OHIO STATE 4.03% CLEMSON 3.26% VILLANOVA 2.47% TEXAS A&M 2.38% SANTA CLARA 2.38% SAINT LOUIS 2.09% SMU 1.85% UCF 1.76% SOUTH FLORIDA 1.61% MISSOURI 1.50% TEXAS 1.49% VCU 1.48% NC STATE 1.47% TCU 0.58% AKRON 0.55% HIGH POINT 0.50% MCNEESE 0.36% NORTHERN IOWA 0.19% HOFSTRA 0.12% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.10% HAWAI'I 0.06% TROY 0.05% MIAMI (OH) 0.05% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.04% FURMAN 0.04% WRIGHT STATE 0.02% KENNESAW STATE 0.02% PENNSYLVANIA 0.01% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.01% TENNESSEE STATE 0.01% IDAHO 0.00% SIENA 0.00% UMBC 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LEHIGH 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M	51.95% DUKE 42.38% MICHIGAN 41.92% ARIZONA 29.11% FLORIDA 27.84% HOUSTON 25.15% IOWA STATE 21.18% ILLINOIS 20.07% GONZAGA 19.91% PURDUE 13.86% UCONN 11.67% MICHIGAN STATE 8.01% ALABAMA 7.71% TENNESSEE 7.19% ARKANSAS 6.68% VANDERBILT 6.52% NEBRASKA 6.39% ST. JOHN'S 6.04% KANSAS 5.52% TEXAS TECH 5.39% LOUISVILLE 5.37% VIRGINIA 3.48% WISCONSIN 3.12% BYU 2.70% KENTUCKY 2.37% NORTH CAROLINA 2.12% UCLA 2.07% IOWA 2.04% SAINT MARY'S 1.58% OHIO STATE 1.44% GEORGIA 1.24% UTAH STATE 1.08% CLEMSON 1.06% MIAMI 0.92% VILLANOVA 0.71% TEXAS A&M 0.68% SAINT LOUIS 0.48% SANTA CLARA 0.44% TCU 0.44% SMU 0.37% TEXAS 0.36% NC STATE 0.35% VCU 0.28% MISSOURI 0.25% UCF 0.25% SOUTH FLORIDA 0.10% AKRON 0.07% HIGH POINT 0.06% NORTHERN IOWA 0.06% MCNEESE 0.02% HOFSTRA 0.01% HAWAI'I 0.01% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% MIAMI (OH) 0.00% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.00% TROY 0.00% WRIGHT STATE 0.00% FURMAN 0.00% KENNESAW STATE 0.00% PENNSYLVANIA 0.00% IDAHO 0.00% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.00% SIENA 0.00% TENNESSEE STATE 0.00% UMBC 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LEHIGH 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M	35.19% DUKE 25.97% MICHIGAN 24.80% ARIZONA 14.68% FLORIDA 14.26% HOUSTON 13.06% IOWA STATE 9.95% ILLINOIS 9.80% GONZAGA 9.29% PURDUE 6.13% UCONN 5.09% MICHIGAN STATE 3.11% ALABAMA 3.06% TENNESSEE 2.51% ST. JOHN'S 2.50% ARKANSAS 2.26% VANDERBILT 2.25% KANSAS 2.10% NEBRASKA 2.03% LOUISVILLE 1.99% TEXAS TECH 1.78% VIRGINIA 1.02% WISCONSIN 1.02% BYU 0.85% KENTUCKY 0.67% NORTH CAROLINA 0.61% UCLA 0.58% IOWA 0.57% SAINT MARY'S 0.47% OHIO STATE 0.39% GEORGIA 0.31% UTAH STATE 0.26% CLEMSON 0.24% MIAMI 0.22% VILLANOVA 0.16% SAINT LOUIS 0.15% TEXAS A&M 0.10% SANTA CLARA 0.10% TCU 0.09% SMU 0.08% TEXAS 0.08% NC STATE 0.06% VCU 0.05% MISSOURI 0.04% SOUTH FLORIDA 0.04% UCF 0.01% AKRON 0.01% HIGH POINT 0.01% NORTHERN IOWA 0.01% MCNEESE 0.00% HOFSTRA 0.00% HAWAI'I 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% MIAMI (OH) 0.00% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.00% TROY 0.00% WRIGHT STATE 0.00% FURMAN 0.00% KENNESAW STATE 0.00% PENNSYLVANIA 0.00% IDAHO 0.00% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.00% SIENA 0.00% TENNESSEE STATE 0.00% UMBC 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% LEHIGH 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M	22.17% DUKE 15.10% MICHIGAN 14.05% ARIZONA 7.36% FLORIDA 7.27% HOUSTON 6.37% IOWA STATE 4.64% ILLINOIS 4.54% GONZAGA 4.10% PURDUE 2.41% UCONN 1.97% MICHIGAN STATE 1.12% TENNESSEE 1.11% ALABAMA 0.87% ST. JOHN'S 0.81% ARKANSAS 0.74% VANDERBILT 0.73% KANSAS 0.67% LOUISVILLE 0.66% TEXAS TECH 0.66% NEBRASKA 0.54% VIRGINIA 0.31% BYU 0.28% WISCONSIN 0.24% KENTUCKY 0.18% NORTH CAROLINA 0.16% SAINT MARY'S 0.15% IOWA 0.15% UCLA 0.12% OHIO STATE 0.10% GEORGIA 0.07% UTAH STATE 0.06% CLEMSON 0.05% MIAMI 0.05% VILLANOVA 0.03% SAINT LOUIS 0.03% TEXAS A&M 0.02% SANTA CLARA 0.02% TCU 0.02% TEXAS 0.02% SMU 0.02% NC STATE 0.01% VCU 0.01% MISSOURI 0.01% SOUTH FLORIDA 0.01% UCF 0.00% AKRON 0.00% NORTHERN IOWA 0.00% HIGH POINT 0.00% MCNEESE 0.00% HOFSTRA 0.00% MIAMI (OH) 0.00% HAWAI'I 0.00% NORTH DAKOTA STATE 0.00% CALIFORNIA BAPTIST 0.00% TROY 0.00% WRIGHT STATE 0.00% FURMAN 0.00% KENNESAW STATE 0.00% PENNSYLVANIA 0.00% IDAHO 0.00% SIENA 0.00% QUEENS UNIVERSITY 0.00% TENNESSEE STATE 0.00% UMBC 0.00% HOWARD 0.00% LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY 0.00% LEHIGH 0.00% PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

Note: asterisk denotes team advanced

Selection Notes

All of the computer rankings came close to correctly matching the selections. My standard ranking and pseudopoll led the pack, picking 36 of 37 at-large teams correctly. The only "miss" was that they would have picked 17-16 Auburn due to its strength of schedule (as would have my predictive rankings and the NCAA's NET ranking); I will suspect that one game above .500 may have been a bit too much despite Auburn's strong play. Aside from Auburn, both the predictive and NET rankings had two other teams based on "eye test", but the rankings disagreed on who thos teams would have been. Texas would have been the preferred team out based on win-loss rankings; Miami of Ohio for the margin-of-victory rankings.

When it came to the tougher task of predicting seedings, the pseudopoll did the best, putting 45 of 68 teams at the correct seed and all 68 within one. The standard rankings were well behind, with 35 correct seeds but still 67 within one. The predictive and NCAA NET rankings were the worst at predicting seeds, with 32-33 each. Obviously with my pseudopoll putting every team within one of their actual seed, seeding complaints are hard to justify.

Prediction Notes

Heading into the tournament, an interesting metric is the relative parity at the top. Top does not mean the #1 seeds, but rather the teams with the best chances of winning. Here is a comparison of the number of teams as a function of likelihood of winning, vs. season.

Season	5-10%	10-15%	15-20%	20-25%	≥25%	Winner
2014-2015	2	3	0	0	1	7.9%
2015-2016	4	1	1	0	0	5.0%
2016-2017	2	2	1	0	0	13.2%
2017-2018	4	1	2	0	0	15.7%
2018-2019	2	2	2	0	0	19.9%
2020-2021+	3	2	0	1	0	12.0%
2021-2022	6	0	0	1	0	16.3%
2022-2023	4	1	1	0	0	4.2%
2023-2024	3	3	0	1	0	10.8%
2024-2025	2	0	2	1	0	8.9%
2025-2026	3	1	1	1	0	TBD

In comparison with previous seasons, this season has is tied with the fewest teams with a 15% chance or greater of winning it all. While Houston (22.7%) is the clear favorite relative to any other team, the field has about a nearly 80% chance.

+ 2020-2021 tournament predictions less precise due to COVID impacts

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Note: if you use any of the facts, equations, or mathematical principles introduced here, you must give me credit.