DEL Daily News
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Request For: Pro and College Basketball|
Request Title: Add Luck to Box Score
The way the game makes the "luck" calculation available is not great, hiding it in an HTML comment. The information is only available to those who happen to know it is there and go looking for it. The argument has been made that most coaches would be able to tell how many bounces were going there way, etc., and so this is reasonable information to expose.
In that case, let's make it actually part of the box score. I think there is no reason we should know this down to 10 decimal points though.
My thought is that we could have a general description. For example:
Luck within 5 points either way: EVEN
Luck 5-10: FAVORED <TEAM>
Luck 11-15: STRONGLY FAVORED <TEAM>
Luck 16+: OVERWHELMING FAVORED <TEAM>
And remove the HTML comment with the actual value.
Submitted May 7 12:18:45 2019
by Stephen Thompson
Coaches In Favor of Change: Stephen Thompson, Adnan Bislimovic, John Henry
Coaches Opposed to Change: none
Stephen Thompson: What happened to my title for this? Anyway, Andy has consistently said that 'any coach could tell when wide open shots are being missed, when miracle shots are going in, etc' ... which was the idea behind having the luck calculation visible at all. It's probably a reasonable think to include in the box score -- if you feel like the bands that I listed are still too precise, it could be simpler than that: within one StdDev=EVEN, 1-2 StdDev=FAVORED, 2+ StdDev=EXTREME. I would still like to see SOMETHING rather than simply remove the calculation altogether.
Status: In Review (last updated May 12 18:26:12 2019
Priority: Under Discussion
A few thoughts on this. One is that I agree anyone watching a game can see low-quality shots being made and realize that the team got "lucky". On the other hand, there are many random calls made during a game that are not reflected accurately here. For example, teams typically average about a point per possession, so a steal/turnover can be quantified at one point. Shots are even easier - a 70% likelihood 2 pointer that is made is 0.6 points of luck. On the flip side, truly big stuff like fouls and injuries are not included, nor are injuries from previous games that left a team without a key player. Likewise, who gets the rebound is included in the luck factor, but where the ball bounces (which determines which players could rebound) is not.
All together, I'm afraid that memorializing luck as a visible feature in the box score is a bad idea, given it would imply it is an all-encompassing factor. Certainly having a coach publish luck ratings completely gives the wrong impression of what wins/losses are driven by rolls of the die. So rather than leet folks think they know "ground truth" of who would have won if both sides had equal luck, it's better to just ditch it.