DEL Daily News
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Request For: Pro and College Basketball|
Request Title: Add Luck to Box Score
The way the game makes the "luck" calculation available is not great, hiding it in an HTML comment. The information is only available to those who happen to know it is there and go looking for it. The argument has been made that most coaches would be able to tell how many bounces were going there way, etc., and so this is reasonable information to expose.
In that case, let's make it actually part of the box score. I think there is no reason we should know this down to 10 decimal points though.
My thought is that we could have a general description. For example:
Luck within 5 points either way: EVEN
Luck 5-10: FAVORED <TEAM>
Luck 11-15: STRONGLY FAVORED <TEAM>
Luck 16+: OVERWHELMING FAVORED <TEAM>
And remove the HTML comment with the actual value.
Status: Declined (last updated Nov 9 12:36:09 2019
I have actually decided to do the opposite by removing luck scores from the basketball box score comments (dead-ball rebounds remain).
The issue is that some folks do not appear to appreciate that these scores account for only passing and shooting luck, not things such as injuries, fouls, etc. that can actually have a larger impact on the game. Worse, if the reported luck score is larger than the margin of victory, folks are treating the game as if it they definitively know the outcome was due to luck. Reality is the luck score was never intended to tell the whole "luck" story, and at this point I believe it causes more harm than it is worth.
Submitted May 7 12:18:45 2019
by Stephen Thompson
Coaches In Favor of Change: Stephen Thompson, Adnan Bislimovic, John Henry
Coaches Opposed to Change: none
CommentsVote or Comment on this request
Stephen Thompson: What happened to my title for this? Anyway, Andy has consistently said that 'any coach could tell when wide open shots are being missed, when miracle shots are going in, etc' ... which was the idea behind having the luck calculation visible at all. It's probably a reasonable think to include in the box score -- if you feel like the bands that I listed are still too precise, it could be simpler than that: within one StdDev=EVEN, 1-2 StdDev=FAVORED, 2+ StdDev=EXTREME. I would still like to see SOMETHING rather than simply remove the calculation altogether.