Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
U of the Virgin Islands  4 13 1169 1420 -0.690    1 -1.543    1 -1.569    2 -1.724    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 10.994    3 -1.784    1 -1.665
U of the Bahamas         4  3  531  568 -1.701    2 -1.551    2 -1.583    4 -2.319    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 10.768    6 -2.242    3 -2.396
Cal Miramar              2  9  742  891 -1.100    3 -1.958    3 -2.042    3 -2.111    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  9.645    5 -2.025    2 -2.197
Miami-Hamilton          21 12 3044 2728 -2.154    4 -2.147    4 -2.189    1 -1.677    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.397    1 -0.772    4 -2.582
East-West                2 22 1732 2370 -0.688    5 -2.216    5 -2.241    5 -2.639    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  8.853    4 -1.834    9 -3.444
Ohio U-Chillicothe      12 15 2023 2364 -2.958    6 -2.737    6 -2.917    9 -3.213    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  6.949   10 -3.008    8 -3.418
Miami-Middletown        11 13 1873 1984 -2.968    7 -2.904    7 -3.149   10 -3.230    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.663   11 -3.095    7 -3.365
Salish Kootenai          2 18 1303 2264 -2.516    8 -3.032    8 -3.391   18 -4.198    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  5.761   13 -3.163   23 -5.233
Clark St CC              4  3  583  496 -3.330    9 -3.037    9 -3.408    7 -2.870    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  6.240    9 -2.933    5 -2.806
Ohio St-Lima             8 12 1485 1689 -3.292   10 -3.096   10 -3.502   14 -3.782    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.794   15 -3.657   13 -3.907
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Red River                9  4 1052  972 -4.051   11 -3.136   11 -3.565   13 -3.597    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  5.696   16 -3.699   10 -3.496
Ohio U-Lancaster        11 14 1984 2101 -3.418   12 -3.243   12 -3.729   11 -3.510    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  5.538   12 -3.104   14 -3.916
Oglala Lakota            2  5  598  677 -3.052   13 -3.250   13 -3.744   12 -3.577    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  5.507    8 -2.572   18 -4.582
Westcliff                0 20 1343 2008 -0.858   14 -3.259   14 -3.758    6 -2.767    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  5.686    7 -2.314    6 -3.220
Canadian Mennonite       7  6 1089 1054 -3.984   15 -3.327   15 -3.883   15 -3.788    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  5.153   14 -3.366   16 -4.210
Northwest Indian         0 18 1358 2029 -1.173   16 -3.409   16 -3.972    8 -3.172    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  5.299    2 -1.566   20 -4.778
Ohio St-Mansfield        5 16 1459 1869 -3.377   17 -3.431   17 -4.036   19 -4.201    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  4.656   20 -4.247   15 -4.154
Barber-Scotia            0 11  700 1058 -1.526   18 -3.623   18 -4.214   17 -3.926    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  4.483   18 -3.961   12 -3.892
Ohio U-Eastern           1  8  618  786 -3.072   19 -3.702   19 -4.410   16 -3.790    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  4.036   19 -3.995   11 -3.586
Baptist Bible MO         2 16 1054 1713 -3.780   20 -3.841   20 -4.709   22 -5.255    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  3.176   22 -5.654   21 -4.856
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Akron-Wayne              3 23 1851 2358 -3.523   21 -3.851   21 -4.726   20 -4.223    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  3.456   17 -3.843   19 -4.604
Ohio U-Zanesville        1 10  811 1052 -3.732   22 -3.973   22 -4.979   21 -4.929    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  2.990   21 -4.516   24 -5.342
Union NE                 2 11  752 1021 -4.482   23 -4.076   23 -5.225   23 -5.294    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  2.662   24 -6.064   17 -4.523
Patrick Henry            0  6  271  575 -3.948   24 -4.208   24 -5.617   26 -7.018    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  1.979   26 -7.438   26 -6.599
New School               1  4  299  413 -5.389   25 -4.240   25 -5.719   24 -5.434    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  2.110   23 -5.820   22 -5.049
Cooper Union             2  3  343  391 -6.699   26 -4.527   26 -6.469   25 -6.312    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  1.382   25 -6.186   25 -6.438


Indep: strength=-4.065 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
U of the Bahamas         4  3  531  568 -1.701    2 -1.551    2 -1.583    4 -2.319    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 10.768    6 -2.242    3 -2.396
East-West                2 22 1732 2370 -0.688    5 -2.216    5 -2.241    5 -2.639    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  8.853    4 -1.834    9 -3.444
Salish Kootenai          2 18 1303 2264 -2.516    8 -3.032    8 -3.391   18 -4.198    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  5.761   13 -3.163   23 -5.233
Clark St CC              4  3  583  496 -3.330    9 -3.037    9 -3.408    7 -2.870    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  6.240    9 -2.933    5 -2.806
Oglala Lakota            2  5  598  677 -3.052   13 -3.250   13 -3.744   12 -3.577    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  5.507    8 -2.572   18 -4.582
Westcliff                0 20 1343 2008 -0.858   14 -3.259   14 -3.758    6 -2.767    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  5.686    7 -2.314    6 -3.220
Northwest Indian         0 18 1358 2029 -1.173   16 -3.409   16 -3.972    8 -3.172    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  5.299    2 -1.566   20 -4.778
Barber-Scotia            0 11  700 1058 -1.526   18 -3.623   18 -4.214   17 -3.926    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  4.483   18 -3.961   12 -3.892
Baptist Bible MO         2 16 1054 1713 -3.780   20 -3.841   20 -4.709   22 -5.255    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  3.176   22 -5.654   21 -4.856
Union NE                 2 11  752 1021 -4.482   23 -4.076   23 -5.225   23 -5.294    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  2.662   24 -6.064   17 -4.523
Patrick Henry            0  6  271  575 -3.948   24 -4.208   24 -5.617   26 -7.018    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  1.979   26 -7.438   26 -6.599
New School               1  4  299  413 -5.389   25 -4.240   25 -5.719   24 -5.434    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  2.110   23 -5.820   22 -5.049
Cooper Union             2  3  343  391 -6.699   26 -4.527   26 -6.469   25 -6.312    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  1.382   25 -6.186   25 -6.438

LAI: strength=-1.666 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
U of the Virgin Islands  4 13 1169 1420 -0.690    1 -1.543    1 -1.569    2 -1.724    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 10.994    3 -1.784    1 -1.665

Man CAC: strength=-3.840 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Red River                9  4 1052  972 -4.051   11 -3.136   11 -3.565   13 -3.597    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  5.696   16 -3.699   10 -3.496
Canadian Mennonite       7  6 1089 1054 -3.984   15 -3.327   15 -3.883   15 -3.788    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  5.153   14 -3.366   16 -4.210
Providence MB           12 13 2047 2176 -3.943      -3.381      -3.923      -3.951      0.0000      0.0000       4.965      -3.107      -4.796

ORCC: strength=-3.672 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Miami-Hamilton          21 12 3044 2728 -2.154    4 -2.147    4 -2.189    1 -1.677    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.397    1 -0.772    4 -2.582
Ohio U-Chillicothe      12 15 2023 2364 -2.958    6 -2.737    6 -2.917    9 -3.213    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  6.949   10 -3.008    8 -3.418
Miami-Middletown        11 13 1873 1984 -2.968    7 -2.904    7 -3.149   10 -3.230    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.663   11 -3.095    7 -3.365
Ohio St-Lima             8 12 1485 1689 -3.292   10 -3.096   10 -3.502   14 -3.782    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.794   15 -3.657   13 -3.907
Ohio U-Lancaster        11 14 1984 2101 -3.418   12 -3.243   12 -3.729   11 -3.510    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  5.538   12 -3.104   14 -3.916
Ohio St-Mansfield        5 16 1459 1869 -3.377   17 -3.431   17 -4.036   19 -4.201    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  4.656   20 -4.247   15 -4.154
Ohio U-Eastern           1  8  618  786 -3.072   19 -3.702   19 -4.410   16 -3.790    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  4.036   19 -3.995   11 -3.586
Akron-Wayne              3 23 1851 2358 -3.523   21 -3.851   21 -4.726   20 -4.223    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  3.456   17 -3.843   19 -4.604
Ohio U-Zanesville        1 10  811 1052 -3.732   22 -3.973   22 -4.979   21 -4.929    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  2.990   21 -4.516   24 -5.342

PCAC: strength=-2.117 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Portland Bible          12 18 2150 2424 -1.401      -1.535      -1.563      -1.913      0.0000      0.0000      10.875      -2.020      -1.807
Bethesda                 7 23 2009 2519 -0.700      -1.561      -1.595      -1.603      0.0000      0.0000      10.985      -1.777      -1.429
Cal Miramar              2  9  742  891 -1.100    3 -1.958    3 -2.042    3 -2.111    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  9.645    5 -2.025    2 -2.197
West Coast Baptist       4 27 2162 2799 -1.337      -2.302      -2.363      -2.463      0.0000      0.0000       8.534      -1.994      -2.933
New Hope Christian       5 21 1875 2430 -1.779      -2.403      -2.483      -2.701      0.0000      0.0000       8.139      -2.328      -3.074

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
LAI               4  13 0.235    1 -1.666
PCAC             30  98 0.234    2 -2.117
ORCC             73 123 0.372    3 -3.672
Man CAC          28  23 0.549    4 -3.840
Indep            21 140 0.130    5 -4.065

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.251 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Jan 26 23:41:02 2022

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