Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             24  2 2245 1600 -0.289    1  0.735    1  0.455    1  0.658    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 18.834    1  0.516    1  0.801
Victoria                24  3 2351 1925 -0.543    2  0.614    3  0.348    4  0.178    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 18.113    2  0.463    5 -0.107
Alberta                 25  2 2356 1829 -0.650    3  0.606    2  0.349    3  0.217    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 18.164    5  0.364    4  0.070
Dalhousie               24  5 2462 2066 -0.348    4  0.501    4  0.268    2  0.255    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 17.549    3  0.433    3  0.078
Brock                   22  3 2251 1790 -0.632    5  0.410    5  0.162    5  0.065    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 17.424    4  0.389    6 -0.259
Ottawa ON               19  4 1756 1431 -0.635    6  0.169    7 -0.053    6 -0.170    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 16.699   25 -0.760    2  0.420
Queen's ON              17  7 1922 1845 -0.533    7  0.105    6 -0.048   14 -0.560    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 16.438   16 -0.028   19 -1.091
McGill                  15  5 1387 1350 -0.797    8 -0.012    8 -0.150   19 -0.740    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 15.941   37 -1.165    8 -0.315
UBC                     19  5 2078 1764 -0.809    9 -0.056    9 -0.201    7 -0.272    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 16.052   13  0.039    9 -0.583
Saskatchewan            21  8 2433 2233 -0.733   10 -0.144   10 -0.254    8 -0.317    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 15.725    8  0.223   13 -0.856
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Francis Xavier       18  9 2314 2143 -0.605   11 -0.212   11 -0.321   10 -0.493    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 15.407    7  0.300   27 -1.286
Lakehead                16  6 1870 1795 -0.907   12 -0.228   12 -0.340   18 -0.692    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 15.273   14  0.011   32 -1.394
Memorial                11 10 1758 1767 -0.287   13 -0.232   13 -0.345    9 -0.411    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 15.243    6  0.355   21 -1.177
Laurier                 16  7 1982 1790 -0.872   14 -0.387   14 -0.495   12 -0.522    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 14.660   17 -0.101   15 -0.944
St Mary's NS            13 10 1930 1881 -0.604   15 -0.429   15 -0.543   17 -0.691    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 14.286   10  0.082   34 -1.463
Regina                  17  9 2113 1982 -0.911   16 -0.440   16 -0.555   15 -0.595    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 14.388   20 -0.276   14 -0.914
UCCB                     9 10 1459 1499 -0.395   17 -0.446   17 -0.561   20 -0.763    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 14.098   22 -0.570   16 -0.956
McMaster                16  8 2103 1932 -0.850   18 -0.454   18 -0.572   11 -0.511    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 14.392    9  0.181   23 -1.202
UPEI                    10 12 1751 1768 -0.437   19 -0.506   19 -0.627   13 -0.540    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 13.925   19 -0.254   12 -0.826
Ryerson                 12 10 1860 1772 -0.944   20 -0.764   21 -0.905   16 -0.673    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.031   11  0.073   33 -1.418
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UNB                      9 14 1692 1794 -0.650   21 -0.765   20 -0.904   23 -0.859    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 12.770   32 -1.041   10 -0.677
Winnipeg                12 10 1665 1706 -1.127   22 -0.771   22 -0.912   31 -1.159    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 12.804   34 -1.053   26 -1.265
Western ON              11  9 1746 1670 -1.065   23 -0.795   23 -0.938   27 -1.054    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 12.840   18 -0.198   40 -1.910
Guelph                   8  9 1490 1517 -0.947   24 -0.815   24 -0.960   28 -1.055    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 12.721   15 -0.011   44 -2.099
Lethbridge U.           11 10 1662 1570 -1.003   25 -0.860   25 -0.994   24 -0.859    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 12.747   26 -0.760   17 -0.957
Calgary                 11 10 1705 1645 -1.052   26 -0.878   26 -1.016   25 -0.993    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 12.673   23 -0.608   30 -1.378
Windsor                  9 11 1617 1692 -1.010   27 -0.894   27 -1.034   34 -1.223    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 12.291   24 -0.695   38 -1.752
Mount Royal             12 13 2041 2033 -1.034   28 -0.926   28 -1.070   26 -1.006    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 12.289   21 -0.371   37 -1.642
Laurentian               9 12 1540 1649 -0.995   29 -0.931   29 -1.076   30 -1.157    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 12.166   35 -1.079   24 -1.235
Fraser Valley           10 13 1840 1945 -1.148   30 -1.062   30 -1.226   39 -1.361    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 11.701   28 -0.840   39 -1.883
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Toronto                  8 13 1572 1594 -0.901   31 -1.075   31 -1.241   22 -0.840    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 11.805   29 -0.905   11 -0.776
Laval                    5 12 1196 1296 -0.898   32 -1.099   32 -1.271   32 -1.161    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 11.564   30 -0.929   31 -1.393
Concordia QC             7 12 1294 1292 -0.934   33 -1.143   33 -1.317   21 -0.795    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 11.600   41 -1.320    7 -0.270
Nipissing                7 14 1462 1693 -1.128   34 -1.151   34 -1.325   40 -1.390    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 11.156   44 -1.451   29 -1.329
Trinity Western         11 14 2189 2283 -1.288   35 -1.157   35 -1.333   36 -1.262    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 11.290   12  0.055   46 -2.578
Bishop's                 5 12 1154 1285 -0.965   36 -1.176   36 -1.354   38 -1.298    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 11.225   40 -1.308   28 -1.288
Manitoba                 9 14 1674 1726 -1.165   37 -1.189   37 -1.369   37 -1.281    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 11.252   45 -1.534   18 -1.027
UQAM                     4 12 1079 1218 -1.001   38 -1.269   38 -1.462   41 -1.454    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 10.872   43 -1.431   36 -1.476
Waterloo                 8 13 1577 1635 -1.306   39 -1.288   39 -1.485   35 -1.237    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 10.874   42 -1.342   20 -1.131
York ON                  5 15 1474 1651 -1.037   40 -1.312   40 -1.516   29 -1.148    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.781   27 -0.830   35 -1.466
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Brandon                  5 18 1745 1965 -1.160   41 -1.556   41 -1.730   43 -1.549    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 10.054   31 -0.960   45 -2.137
Acadia                   2 20 1563 1820 -0.704   42 -1.575   42 -1.752   33 -1.216    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  9.898   38 -1.240   22 -1.192
Ontario Tech             3 18 1526 1945 -1.130   43 -1.584   43 -1.767   47 -2.093    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  9.631   39 -1.274   48 -2.912
UBC-Okanagan             6 19 1909 2127 -1.290   44 -1.620   44 -1.812   44 -1.596    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  9.763   36 -1.133   43 -2.060
UNBC                     6 17 1796 1983 -1.395   45 -1.658   45 -1.845   42 -1.543    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  9.623   33 -1.048   42 -2.038
Thompson Rivers          5 18 1587 1798 -1.370   46 -1.715   46 -1.912   45 -1.685    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  9.320   46 -2.119   25 -1.251
MacEwan                  1 22 1509 2102 -1.369   47 -2.085   47 -2.301   48 -2.527    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  8.055   48 -2.401   47 -2.653
Algoma                   0 21 1392 1839 -1.264   48 -2.274   48 -2.408   46 -2.068    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   48  7.945   47 -2.137   41 -1.999


Atl U Sport: strength=-0.496 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Dalhousie               24  5 2462 2066 -0.348    4  0.501    4  0.268    2  0.255    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 17.549    3  0.433    3  0.078
St Francis Xavier       18  9 2314 2143 -0.605   11 -0.212   11 -0.321   10 -0.493    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 15.407    7  0.300   27 -1.286
Memorial                11 10 1758 1767 -0.287   13 -0.232   13 -0.345    9 -0.411    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 15.243    6  0.355   21 -1.177
St Mary's NS            13 10 1930 1881 -0.604   15 -0.429   15 -0.543   17 -0.691    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 14.286   10  0.082   34 -1.463
UCCB                     9 10 1459 1499 -0.395   17 -0.446   17 -0.561   20 -0.763    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 14.098   22 -0.570   16 -0.956
UPEI                    10 12 1751 1768 -0.437   19 -0.506   19 -0.627   13 -0.540    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 13.925   19 -0.254   12 -0.826
UNB                      9 14 1692 1794 -0.650   21 -0.765   20 -0.904   23 -0.859    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 12.770   32 -1.041   10 -0.677
Acadia                   2 20 1563 1820 -0.704   42 -1.575   42 -1.752   33 -1.216    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  9.898   38 -1.240   22 -1.192

Can W: strength=-1.102 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Victoria                24  3 2351 1925 -0.543    2  0.614    3  0.348    4  0.178    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 18.113    2  0.463    5 -0.107
Alberta                 25  2 2356 1829 -0.650    3  0.606    2  0.349    3  0.217    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 18.164    5  0.364    4  0.070
UBC                     19  5 2078 1764 -0.809    9 -0.056    9 -0.201    7 -0.272    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 16.052   13  0.039    9 -0.583
Saskatchewan            21  8 2433 2233 -0.733   10 -0.144   10 -0.254    8 -0.317    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 15.725    8  0.223   13 -0.856
Regina                  17  9 2113 1982 -0.911   16 -0.440   16 -0.555   15 -0.595    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 14.388   20 -0.276   14 -0.914
Winnipeg                12 10 1665 1706 -1.127   22 -0.771   22 -0.912   31 -1.159    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 12.804   34 -1.053   26 -1.265
Lethbridge U.           11 10 1662 1570 -1.003   25 -0.860   25 -0.994   24 -0.859    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 12.747   26 -0.760   17 -0.957
Calgary                 11 10 1705 1645 -1.052   26 -0.878   26 -1.016   25 -0.993    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 12.673   23 -0.608   30 -1.378
Mount Royal             12 13 2041 2033 -1.034   28 -0.926   28 -1.070   26 -1.006    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 12.289   21 -0.371   37 -1.642
Fraser Valley           10 13 1840 1945 -1.148   30 -1.062   30 -1.226   39 -1.361    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 11.701   28 -0.840   39 -1.883
Trinity Western         11 14 2189 2283 -1.288   35 -1.157   35 -1.333   36 -1.262    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34 11.290   12  0.055   46 -2.578
Manitoba                 9 14 1674 1726 -1.165   37 -1.189   37 -1.369   37 -1.281    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35 11.252   45 -1.534   18 -1.027
Brandon                  5 18 1745 1965 -1.160   41 -1.556   41 -1.730   43 -1.549    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41 10.054   31 -0.960   45 -2.137
UBC-Okanagan             6 19 1909 2127 -1.290   44 -1.620   44 -1.812   44 -1.596    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  9.763   36 -1.133   43 -2.060
UNBC                     6 17 1796 1983 -1.395   45 -1.658   45 -1.845   42 -1.543    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  9.623   33 -1.048   42 -2.038
Thompson Rivers          5 18 1587 1798 -1.370   46 -1.715   46 -1.912   45 -1.685    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  9.320   46 -2.119   25 -1.251
MacEwan                  1 22 1509 2102 -1.369   47 -2.085   47 -2.301   48 -2.527    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  8.055   48 -2.401   47 -2.653

Ont Univ Athl: strength=-0.894 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             24  2 2245 1600 -0.289    1  0.735    1  0.455    1  0.658    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 18.834    1  0.516    1  0.801
Brock                   22  3 2251 1790 -0.632    5  0.410    5  0.162    5  0.065    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 17.424    4  0.389    6 -0.259
Ottawa ON               19  4 1756 1431 -0.635    6  0.169    7 -0.053    6 -0.170    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 16.699   25 -0.760    2  0.420
Queen's ON              17  7 1922 1845 -0.533    7  0.105    6 -0.048   14 -0.560    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 16.438   16 -0.028   19 -1.091
Lakehead                16  6 1870 1795 -0.907   12 -0.228   12 -0.340   18 -0.692    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 15.273   14  0.011   32 -1.394
Laurier                 16  7 1982 1790 -0.872   14 -0.387   14 -0.495   12 -0.522    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 14.660   17 -0.101   15 -0.944
McMaster                16  8 2103 1932 -0.850   18 -0.454   18 -0.572   11 -0.511    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 14.392    9  0.181   23 -1.202
Ryerson                 12 10 1860 1772 -0.944   20 -0.764   21 -0.905   16 -0.673    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.031   11  0.073   33 -1.418
Western ON              11  9 1746 1670 -1.065   23 -0.795   23 -0.938   27 -1.054    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 12.840   18 -0.198   40 -1.910
Guelph                   8  9 1490 1517 -0.947   24 -0.815   24 -0.960   28 -1.055    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 12.721   15 -0.011   44 -2.099
Windsor                  9 11 1617 1692 -1.010   27 -0.894   27 -1.034   34 -1.223    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 12.291   24 -0.695   38 -1.752
Laurentian               9 12 1540 1649 -0.995   29 -0.931   29 -1.076   30 -1.157    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 12.166   35 -1.079   24 -1.235
Toronto                  8 13 1572 1594 -0.901   31 -1.075   31 -1.241   22 -0.840    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 11.805   29 -0.905   11 -0.776
Nipissing                7 14 1462 1693 -1.128   34 -1.151   34 -1.325   40 -1.390    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37 11.156   44 -1.451   29 -1.329
Waterloo                 8 13 1577 1635 -1.306   39 -1.288   39 -1.485   35 -1.237    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38 10.874   42 -1.342   20 -1.131
York ON                  5 15 1474 1651 -1.037   40 -1.312   40 -1.516   29 -1.148    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40 10.781   27 -0.830   35 -1.466
Ontario Tech             3 18 1526 1945 -1.130   43 -1.584   43 -1.767   47 -2.093    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  9.631   39 -1.274   48 -2.912
Algoma                   0 21 1392 1839 -1.264   48 -2.274   48 -2.408   46 -2.068    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   48  7.945   47 -2.137   41 -1.999

RSEQ: strength=-1.160 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
McGill                  15  5 1387 1350 -0.797    8 -0.012    8 -0.150   19 -0.740    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 15.941   37 -1.165    8 -0.315
Laval                    5 12 1196 1296 -0.898   32 -1.099   32 -1.271   32 -1.161    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 11.564   30 -0.929   31 -1.393
Concordia QC             7 12 1294 1292 -0.934   33 -1.143   33 -1.317   21 -0.795    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 11.600   41 -1.320    7 -0.270
Bishop's                 5 12 1154 1285 -0.965   36 -1.176   36 -1.354   38 -1.298    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36 11.225   40 -1.308   28 -1.288
UQAM                     4 12 1079 1218 -1.001   38 -1.269   38 -1.462   41 -1.454    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39 10.872   43 -1.431   36 -1.476

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Atl U Sport      96  90 0.516    1 -0.496
Ont Univ Athl   210 182 0.536    2 -0.894
Can W           205 205 0.500    3 -1.102
RSEQ             36  53 0.404    4 -1.160

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.218 points in main ratings
     0.028 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Tue Apr  4 18:48:40 2023

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