Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Great Lakes Christian   26  9 3170 2762 -1.890    1 -1.110    1 -1.279    2 -1.494    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 11.437    1 -0.437   10 -2.550
Camp U-Harrodsburg      21  9 2529 2310 -1.808    2 -1.132    2 -1.305    1 -1.463    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 11.286    3 -0.958    3 -1.967
Manhattan Christian     17 12 2246 2160 -1.910    3 -1.595    3 -1.784    3 -1.840    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  9.734    5 -1.739    2 -1.942
Bob Jones U.            15 14 2264 2369 -1.872    4 -1.619    4 -1.813    5 -2.021    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.571    4 -1.197   12 -2.845
Arlington Baptist       10 18 2241 2556 -1.443    5 -1.768    5 -1.979    4 -1.998    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  9.148    2 -0.868   14 -3.128
Toccoa Falls            10 16 1799 1995 -1.678    6 -1.785    6 -2.001    7 -2.110    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  9.051   16 -2.221    4 -2.000
Trinity Baptist          7 12 1171 1278 -1.809    7 -1.971    7 -2.191    6 -2.039    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  8.630   23 -3.168    1 -0.911
Dallas Christian         9 24 2274 2805 -1.661    8 -2.068    8 -2.281   11 -2.324    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  8.185   13 -2.137    8 -2.512
SW Adventist            12 14 1824 2046 -2.236    9 -2.084    9 -2.305   14 -2.524    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  8.092   18 -2.766    5 -2.282
Grace Christian         13 17 2313 2383 -2.045   10 -2.242   10 -2.381    8 -2.175    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  8.084    6 -1.768   11 -2.583
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Johnson FL               5 14 1303 1532 -1.591   11 -2.269   11 -2.402   12 -2.359    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  8.043   14 -2.199    9 -2.519
Champion Christian       7 22 2038 2629 -1.712   12 -2.279   12 -2.416   13 -2.503    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  7.549    9 -1.981   13 -3.024
Kansas Christian        13 16 2225 2219 -2.192   13 -2.405   13 -2.523    9 -2.195    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  7.656   10 -2.090    6 -2.301
Boyce                    8 12 1542 1517 -2.141   14 -2.507   14 -2.660   10 -2.284    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  7.069   11 -2.123    7 -2.445
Barclay                  6 13 1480 1743 -2.321   15 -2.617   15 -2.820   17 -2.855    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  6.401    8 -1.972   23 -3.738
Pensacola Christian      5 12 1324 1447 -2.222   16 -2.642   16 -2.857   15 -2.730    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  6.438   12 -2.127   17 -3.334
Ozark Christian         11 17 2083 2422 -2.923   17 -2.725   17 -2.991   22 -3.365    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  5.898   20 -2.857   25 -3.873
Ctr Chr Coll Bible MO   11 14 1771 2006 -2.999   18 -2.734   18 -3.006   24 -3.409    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  5.929   24 -3.291   19 -3.528
Trinity Bible           13 16 2335 2477 -2.896   19 -2.769   19 -3.055   20 -3.041    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  5.954   15 -2.219   24 -3.862
Welch                    9 19 2228 2359 -2.548   20 -2.823   20 -3.128   18 -2.977    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  5.774   17 -2.396   20 -3.557
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Trinity FL               2  8  668  882 -2.239   21 -2.827   21 -3.136   19 -3.004    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  5.642   21 -2.875   15 -3.132
Randall                  3 21 1812 2227 -1.946   22 -2.986   22 -3.300   16 -2.770    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  5.397    7 -1.947   21 -3.593
Oak Hills Christian      7 18 1881 2271 -2.773   23 -3.008   23 -3.338   23 -3.393    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  5.146   19 -2.782   26 -4.005
Portland Bible           0 12  638 1182 -1.030   24 -3.333   24 -3.778   29 -4.309    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  3.949   31 -4.544   28 -4.075
Southeastern Baptist     0 27 1625 2562 -1.335   25 -3.335   25 -3.782   21 -3.335    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  4.362   22 -3.073   22 -3.597
Emmaus Bible             6 16 1486 1704 -3.311   26 -3.338   26 -3.793   25 -3.634    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  4.181   25 -3.995   16 -3.274
Faith Baptist Bible      8 14 1476 1682 -3.543   27 -3.358   27 -3.826   26 -3.792    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  4.078   27 -4.109   18 -3.475
Simmons KY               2 20 1306 2045 -3.072   28 -3.536   28 -4.135   28 -4.231    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  3.548   29 -4.443   27 -4.020
Calvary                  2 20 1356 1977 -3.318   29 -3.728   29 -4.517   27 -4.228    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  3.215   28 -4.306   29 -4.150
Spurgeon                 2 19 1422 2009 -3.393   30 -3.764   30 -4.593   30 -4.590    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  3.115   26 -4.039   31 -5.140
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Providence MB            8  7 1145 1128 -4.870   31 -3.827   31 -4.632   31 -4.696    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  3.097   30 -4.494   30 -4.897
Moody Bible              0 15  821 1382 -3.711   32 -4.096   32 -5.309   33 -5.730    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  2.134   33 -5.912   32 -5.549
Appalachian Bible        1 12  888 1286 -4.798   33 -4.278   33 -5.716   32 -5.503    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  1.744   32 -4.613   33 -6.392


Midwest Chr: strength=-3.441 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Manhattan Christian     17 12 2246 2160 -1.910    3 -1.595    3 -1.784    3 -1.840    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  9.734    5 -1.739    2 -1.942
Barclay                  6 13 1480 1743 -2.321   15 -2.617   15 -2.820   17 -2.855    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  6.401    8 -1.972   23 -3.738
Ozark Christian         11 17 2083 2422 -2.923   17 -2.725   17 -2.991   22 -3.365    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  5.898   20 -2.857   25 -3.873
Ctr Chr Coll Bible MO   11 14 1771 2006 -2.999   18 -2.734   18 -3.006   24 -3.409    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  5.929   24 -3.291   19 -3.528
Emmaus Bible             6 16 1486 1704 -3.311   26 -3.338   26 -3.793   25 -3.634    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  4.181   25 -3.995   16 -3.274
Faith Baptist Bible      8 14 1476 1682 -3.543   27 -3.358   27 -3.826   26 -3.792    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  4.078   27 -4.109   18 -3.475
Calvary                  2 20 1356 1977 -3.318   29 -3.728   29 -4.517   27 -4.228    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  3.215   28 -4.306   29 -4.150

NCCAA-II-Indep: strength=-4.499 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Spurgeon                 2 19 1422 2009 -3.393   30 -3.764   30 -4.593   30 -4.590    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  3.115   26 -4.039   31 -5.140

NCCAA-II Mid-E: strength=-2.565 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Great Lakes Christian   26  9 3170 2762 -1.890    1 -1.110    1 -1.279    2 -1.494    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 11.437    1 -0.437   10 -2.550
Camp U-Harrodsburg      21  9 2529 2310 -1.808    2 -1.132    2 -1.305    1 -1.463    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 11.286    3 -0.958    3 -1.967
Grace Christian         13 17 2313 2383 -2.045   10 -2.242   10 -2.381    8 -2.175    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  8.084    6 -1.768   11 -2.583
Boyce                    8 12 1542 1517 -2.141   14 -2.507   14 -2.660   10 -2.284    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  7.069   11 -2.123    7 -2.445
Welch                    9 19 2228 2359 -2.548   20 -2.823   20 -3.128   18 -2.977    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  5.774   17 -2.396   20 -3.557
Simmons KY               2 20 1306 2045 -3.072   28 -3.536   28 -4.135   28 -4.231    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  3.548   29 -4.443   27 -4.020
Appalachian Bible        1 12  888 1286 -4.798   33 -4.278   33 -5.716   32 -5.503    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  1.744   32 -4.613   33 -6.392

NCCAA-II N: strength=-6.043 (#6)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Moody Bible              0 15  821 1382 -3.711   32 -4.096   32 -5.309   33 -5.730    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  2.134   33 -5.912   32 -5.549

NCCAA-II SW: strength=-2.332 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Arlington Baptist       10 18 2241 2556 -1.443    5 -1.768    5 -1.979    4 -1.998    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  9.148    2 -0.868   14 -3.128
Dallas Christian         9 24 2274 2805 -1.661    8 -2.068    8 -2.281   11 -2.324    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  8.185   13 -2.137    8 -2.512
SW Adventist            12 14 1824 2046 -2.236    9 -2.084    9 -2.305   14 -2.524    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  8.092   18 -2.766    5 -2.282
Champion Christian       7 22 2038 2629 -1.712   12 -2.279   12 -2.416   13 -2.503    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  7.549    9 -1.981   13 -3.024
Kansas Christian        13 16 2225 2219 -2.192   13 -2.405   13 -2.523    9 -2.195    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  7.656   10 -2.090    6 -2.301
Randall                  3 21 1812 2227 -1.946   22 -2.986   22 -3.300   16 -2.770    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  5.397    7 -1.947   21 -3.593

NCCAA-II South: strength=-2.419 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Bob Jones U.            15 14 2264 2369 -1.872    4 -1.619    4 -1.813    5 -2.021    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.571    4 -1.197   12 -2.845
Toccoa Falls            10 16 1799 1995 -1.678    6 -1.785    6 -2.001    7 -2.110    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  9.051   16 -2.221    4 -2.000
Trinity Baptist          7 12 1171 1278 -1.809    7 -1.971    7 -2.191    6 -2.039    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  8.630   23 -3.168    1 -0.911
Johnson FL               5 14 1303 1532 -1.591   11 -2.269   11 -2.402   12 -2.359    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  8.043   14 -2.199    9 -2.519
Pensacola Christian      5 12 1324 1447 -2.222   16 -2.642   16 -2.857   15 -2.730    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  6.438   12 -2.127   17 -3.334
Trinity FL               2  8  668  882 -2.239   21 -2.827   21 -3.136   19 -3.004    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  5.642   21 -2.875   15 -3.132
Southeastern Baptist     0 27 1625 2562 -1.335   25 -3.335   25 -3.782   21 -3.335    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  4.362   22 -3.073   22 -3.597

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-II SW      54 115 0.320    1 -2.332
NCCAA-II South   44 103 0.299    2 -2.419
NCCAA-II Mid-E   80  98 0.449    3 -2.565
Midwest Chr      61 106 0.365    4 -3.441
NCCAA-II-Indep    2  19 0.095    5 -4.499
NCCAA-II N        0  15 0.000    6 -6.043

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.218 points in main ratings
     0.028 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Tue Apr  4 18:48:40 2023

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