Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Johnson & Wales NC      16 13 2403 2401 -1.429    1 -1.158    1 -1.335    1 -1.281    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 11.326    1 -0.340    6 -2.222
Miami-Hamilton          17  9 2101 1940 -1.884    2 -1.303    2 -1.505    3 -1.741    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 10.790    2 -1.304    5 -2.179
Penn St-Mont Alto       24  5 2205 1924 -2.728    3 -1.453    3 -1.646    6 -2.233    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 10.073   13 -2.620    3 -1.847
Southern Maine CC       18  4 1795 1423 -2.592    4 -1.593    4 -1.783    2 -1.551    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.941    4 -1.821    1 -1.281
Kent St-Tuscarawas      15  7 1696 1565 -2.244    5 -1.605    5 -1.798    4 -1.969    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  9.727    5 -1.836    4 -2.101
Penn St-York            22  5 2209 1941 -2.904    6 -1.705    6 -1.903    5 -2.211    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  9.237    7 -2.012    8 -2.411
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    21  7 2134 1987 -2.908    7 -1.897    7 -2.142    9 -2.620    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  8.601   15 -2.766    9 -2.474
New Hampshire Tech      15  6 1746 1530 -2.871    8 -2.101    8 -2.326    7 -2.502    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  8.179    8 -2.085   13 -2.919
Villa Maria             10 10 1395 1507 -2.443    9 -2.240    9 -2.378   10 -2.662    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  7.949   19 -3.065    7 -2.260
Berkeley-NY             14  7 1699 1547 -3.084   10 -2.383   10 -2.485   15 -2.885    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  7.351   11 -2.555   17 -3.214
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-Beaver          14  8 1459 1384 -3.046   11 -2.516   11 -2.674   13 -2.868    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  6.870   27 -3.947    2 -1.789
Penn St-Brandywine      16 15 2184 2316 -2.839   12 -2.556   12 -2.727   12 -2.844    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  6.625   20 -3.072   11 -2.617
Miami-Middletown         4 15 1425 1757 -1.835   13 -2.574   13 -2.754    8 -2.614    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  6.639    3 -1.673   20 -3.556
Bucks County CC          4  2  498  485 -3.271   14 -2.650   14 -2.876   18 -3.175    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  6.326   14 -2.675   22 -3.676
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   11 17 2222 2347 -2.791   15 -2.917   15 -3.195   11 -2.707    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  5.636    6 -1.923   18 -3.491
Christendom              9  3  898  693 -4.083   16 -2.983   16 -3.299   22 -3.494    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  5.261   28 -3.989   15 -2.998
Paul Smith's             9 10 1582 1498 -3.161   17 -3.007   17 -3.337   17 -3.146    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  5.303   10 -2.450   24 -3.842
Central Maine CC         7 10 1211 1245 -3.056   18 -3.017   19 -3.354   16 -3.085    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  5.228   21 -3.273   12 -2.898
Penn St-New Kensington   9 15 1797 1854 -2.958   19 -3.025   20 -3.364   14 -2.883    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  5.205   17 -2.832   14 -2.933
Penn St-Hazleton         9 12 1395 1514 -3.207   20 -3.032   18 -3.350   26 -3.701    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  5.113   31 -4.228   16 -3.173
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-Schuylkill      12 18 2308 2459 -3.144   21 -3.090   21 -3.420   19 -3.353    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  5.041   18 -2.890   23 -3.816
Penn St-Shenango         8 21 2400 2655 -2.889   22 -3.131   22 -3.481   25 -3.537    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  4.847    9 -2.114   36 -4.960
Penn St-Lehigh Valley    8 16 1768 1988 -3.112   23 -3.160   23 -3.497   27 -3.816    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  4.734   23 -3.403   30 -4.229
Great Bay CC             9 11 1559 1472 -3.513   24 -3.222   24 -3.598   23 -3.516    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  4.593   24 -3.443   21 -3.590
Andrews                  3 16 1151 1415 -2.532   25 -3.234   25 -3.613   20 -3.401    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  4.577   32 -4.273   10 -2.529
Vermont Tech             7 21 2005 2283 -3.000   26 -3.298   26 -3.717   21 -3.413    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  4.400   22 -3.327   19 -3.499
Penn St-Fayette          7 15 1782 1895 -3.164   27 -3.299   27 -3.719   24 -3.528    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  4.415   12 -2.577   32 -4.479
Word of Life            11  8 1462 1327 -4.081   28 -3.308   28 -3.735   30 -3.936    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  4.310   26 -3.903   25 -3.968
Maine-Augusta            4 20 1660 2018 -2.878   29 -3.413   29 -3.918   28 -3.838    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  4.033   25 -3.634   29 -4.043
Central Penn             5 12 1384 1496 -3.350   30 -3.421   30 -3.932   29 -3.875    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  3.982   16 -2.829   35 -4.921
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-Worth Scranton   7 18 1764 2009 -3.454   31 -3.463   31 -4.021   32 -4.247    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  3.846   29 -4.062   31 -4.432
Five Towns               9  6 1134 1100 -4.638   32 -3.521   32 -4.114   35 -4.684    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  3.594   34 -4.638   34 -4.731
SUNY-ESF                 4  8  880  872 -3.758   33 -3.620   33 -4.311   31 -4.103    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  3.473   30 -4.208   26 -3.998
Crown TN                 2  9  697 1034 -4.320   34 -3.857   34 -4.702   37 -5.379    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  2.795   36 -5.317   37 -5.440
Penn St-DuBois           1 21 1348 1757 -3.074   35 -3.878   35 -4.745   33 -4.497    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  2.922   35 -4.962   28 -4.031
King's NY                5 10 1101 1152 -4.398   36 -3.944   36 -4.889   34 -4.582    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  2.794   33 -4.482   33 -4.683
Williamson Trade         2  6  452  556 -4.574   37 -4.063   37 -5.222   36 -4.956    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  2.388   37 -5.899   27 -4.014
Hampshire                0  3   99  344 -4.741   38 -4.415   38 -6.297   42 -10.320    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  0.762   42 -11.162   42 -9.478
Albany Pharmacy          0 15  939 1439 -4.251   39 -4.486   39 -6.530   38 -6.373    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  0.830   38 -6.014   39 -6.732
Culinary Institute       0  5  166  432 -3.085   40 -4.543   40 -6.785   41 -8.931    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  0.530   40 -10.524   40 -7.338
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Vaughn                   1  8  521  808 -6.412   41 -4.550   41 -6.809   39 -7.313    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  0.702   39 -7.232   41 -7.393
Webb Institute           0  2   45  129 -7.894   42 -4.711   42 -7.647   40 -8.529    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  0.000   41 -10.565   38 -6.494


Eastern States: strength=-3.683 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Bucks County CC          4  2  498  485 -3.271   14 -2.650   14 -2.876   18 -3.175    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  6.326   14 -2.675   22 -3.676
Manor College            4  6  826  823 -2.991      -2.734      -3.005      -2.775      0.0000      0.0000       6.150      -2.055      -3.496
Central Penn             5 12 1384 1496 -3.350   30 -3.421   30 -3.932   29 -3.875    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  3.982   16 -2.829   35 -4.921
Williamson Trade         2  6  452  556 -4.574   37 -4.063   37 -5.222   36 -4.956    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  2.388   37 -5.899   27 -4.014

HVIAC: strength=-4.920 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Berkeley-NY             14  7 1699 1547 -3.084   10 -2.383   10 -2.485   15 -2.885    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  7.351   11 -2.555   17 -3.214
Five Towns               9  6 1134 1100 -4.638   32 -3.521   32 -4.114   35 -4.684    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  3.594   34 -4.638   34 -4.731
SUNY-ESF                 4  8  880  872 -3.758   33 -3.620   33 -4.311   31 -4.103    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  3.473   30 -4.208   26 -3.998
King's NY                5 10 1101 1152 -4.398   36 -3.944   36 -4.889   34 -4.582    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  2.794   33 -4.482   33 -4.683
Culinary Institute       0  5  166  432 -3.085   40 -4.543   40 -6.785   41 -8.931    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  0.530   40 -10.524   40 -7.338
Vaughn                   1  8  521  808 -6.412   41 -4.550   41 -6.809   39 -7.313    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  0.702   39 -7.232   41 -7.393

PSUAC: strength=-3.189 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-Mont Alto       24  5 2205 1924 -2.728    3 -1.453    3 -1.646    6 -2.233    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 10.073   13 -2.620    3 -1.847
Penn St-York            22  5 2209 1941 -2.904    6 -1.705    6 -1.903    5 -2.211    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  9.237    7 -2.012    8 -2.411
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    21  7 2134 1987 -2.908    7 -1.897    7 -2.142    9 -2.620    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  8.601   15 -2.766    9 -2.474
Penn St-Beaver          14  8 1459 1384 -3.046   11 -2.516   11 -2.674   13 -2.868    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  6.870   27 -3.947    2 -1.789
Penn St-Brandywine      16 15 2184 2316 -2.839   12 -2.556   12 -2.727   12 -2.844    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  6.625   20 -3.072   11 -2.617
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   11 17 2222 2347 -2.791   15 -2.917   15 -3.195   11 -2.707    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  5.636    6 -1.923   18 -3.491
Penn St-New Kensington   9 15 1797 1854 -2.958   19 -3.025   20 -3.364   14 -2.883    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  5.205   17 -2.832   14 -2.933
Penn St-Hazleton         9 12 1395 1514 -3.207   20 -3.032   18 -3.350   26 -3.701    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  5.113   31 -4.228   16 -3.173
Penn St-Schuylkill      12 18 2308 2459 -3.144   21 -3.090   21 -3.420   19 -3.353    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  5.041   18 -2.890   23 -3.816
Penn St-Shenango         8 21 2400 2655 -2.889   22 -3.131   22 -3.481   25 -3.537    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  4.847    9 -2.114   36 -4.960
Penn St-Lehigh Valley    8 16 1768 1988 -3.112   23 -3.160   23 -3.497   27 -3.816    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  4.734   23 -3.403   30 -4.229
Penn St-Fayette          7 15 1782 1895 -3.164   27 -3.299   27 -3.719   24 -3.528    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  4.415   12 -2.577   32 -4.479
Penn St-Worth Scranton   7 18 1764 2009 -3.454   31 -3.463   31 -4.021   32 -4.247    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  3.846   29 -4.062   31 -4.432
Penn St-DuBois           1 21 1348 1757 -3.074   35 -3.878   35 -4.745   33 -4.497    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  2.922   35 -4.962   28 -4.031

USCAA-II: strength=-3.441 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Johnson & Wales NC      16 13 2403 2401 -1.429    1 -1.158    1 -1.335    1 -1.281    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 11.326    1 -0.340    6 -2.222
Kent St-Tuscarawas      15  7 1696 1565 -2.244    5 -1.605    5 -1.798    4 -1.969    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  9.727    5 -1.836    4 -2.101
Villa Maria             10 10 1395 1507 -2.443    9 -2.240    9 -2.378   10 -2.662    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  7.949   19 -3.065    7 -2.260
Christendom              9  3  898  693 -4.083   16 -2.983   16 -3.299   22 -3.494    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  5.261   28 -3.989   15 -2.998
Andrews                  3 16 1151 1415 -2.532   25 -3.234   25 -3.613   20 -3.401    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  4.577   32 -4.273   10 -2.529
Word of Life            11  8 1462 1327 -4.081   28 -3.308   28 -3.735   30 -3.936    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  4.310   26 -3.903   25 -3.968
Crown TN                 2  9  697 1034 -4.320   34 -3.857   34 -4.702   37 -5.379    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  2.795   36 -5.317   37 -5.440
Webb Institute           0  2   45  129 -7.894   42 -4.711   42 -7.647   40 -8.529    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  0.000   41 -10.565   38 -6.494

Yankee Small: strength=-3.533 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Southern Maine CC       18  4 1795 1423 -2.592    4 -1.593    4 -1.783    2 -1.551    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  9.941    4 -1.821    1 -1.281
New Hampshire Tech      15  6 1746 1530 -2.871    8 -2.101    8 -2.326    7 -2.502    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  8.179    8 -2.085   13 -2.919
Paul Smith's             9 10 1582 1498 -3.161   17 -3.007   17 -3.337   17 -3.146    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  5.303   10 -2.450   24 -3.842
Central Maine CC         7 10 1211 1245 -3.056   18 -3.017   19 -3.354   16 -3.085    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  5.228   21 -3.273   12 -2.898
Great Bay CC             9 11 1559 1472 -3.513   24 -3.222   24 -3.598   23 -3.516    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  4.593   24 -3.443   21 -3.590
Vermont Tech             7 21 2005 2283 -3.000   26 -3.298   26 -3.717   21 -3.413    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  4.400   22 -3.327   19 -3.499
Maine-Augusta            4 20 1660 2018 -2.878   29 -3.413   29 -3.918   28 -3.838    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  4.033   25 -3.634   29 -4.043
Hampshire                0  3   99  344 -4.741   38 -4.415   38 -6.297   42 -10.320    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  0.762   42 -11.162   42 -9.478
Albany Pharmacy          0 15  939 1439 -4.251   39 -4.486   39 -6.530   38 -6.373    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  0.830   38 -6.014   39 -6.732

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PSUAC           169 193 0.467    1 -3.189
USCAA-II         66  68 0.493    2 -3.441
Yankee Small     69 100 0.408    3 -3.533
Eastern States   15  26 0.366    4 -3.683
HVIAC            33  44 0.429    5 -4.920

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.218 points in main ratings
     0.028 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Tue Apr  4 18:48:40 2023

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