Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIMBERWOLVES  58 26  9489  8923  0.042 40.701    4  0.494    4  0.475    3  0.450    4 0.5478   27  3.883   15  0.041    1  0.859
CELTICS       65 19 10102  9162  0.025 39.461    1  0.702    1  0.686    1  0.706    1 0.5632   15  3.969    2  0.729    2  0.682
HEAT          48 38  9453  9299 -0.015 41.000   18  0.125   18  0.121   12  0.180   18 0.5105   29  3.881   21 -0.238    3  0.599
KNICKS        52 33  9578  9203  0.021 40.934    6  0.280    6  0.278    5  0.307    7 0.5257   25  3.908   17  0.025    4  0.589
MAGIC         48 37  9348  9168 -0.020 40.292   17  0.142   17  0.136   14  0.127   17 0.5119   30  3.876   24 -0.313    5  0.566
NUGGETS       60 25  9745  9294  0.036 41.357    2  0.538    2  0.533    4  0.385    2 0.5514   20  3.936   11  0.243    6  0.527
PELICANS      50 36  9831  9500  0.052 42.687    8  0.236    8  0.225    6  0.262    8 0.5234   19  3.943   13  0.152    7  0.371
THUNDER       59 25 10065  9423  0.051 40.873    3  0.534    3  0.518    2  0.531    3 0.5509    9  3.997    3  0.703    8  0.359
CAVALIERS     50 35  9512  9328 -0.015 40.436   12  0.195   12  0.186   19  0.037   13 0.5178   24  3.908   22 -0.245    9  0.319
76ERS         49 37  9832  9580 -0.006 41.012   15  0.161   15  0.153   16  0.118   16 0.5135   18  3.949   14  0.042   10  0.194
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          49 35  9720  9506  0.038 41.522    9  0.229    9  0.221    8  0.244    9 0.5227   14  3.974    9  0.295   11  0.193
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.061 42.371   13  0.194   13  0.184    9  0.239   12 0.5194   12  3.982    8  0.330   12  0.147
CLIPPERS      52 32  9683  9405  0.031 41.175    5  0.304    5  0.305   13  0.151    5 0.5313   16  3.966   12  0.164   13  0.139
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.016 40.176   19  0.016   19  0.012   18  0.071   19 0.5016   17  3.953   18  0.012   14  0.131
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.038 40.156   20 -0.079   20 -0.085   20 -0.109   20 0.4904   21  3.930   23 -0.285   15  0.066
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.034 40.950   14  0.162   14  0.153   10  0.194   14 0.5158    8  3.999    7  0.376   16  0.012
MAVERICKS     51 33  9857  9685  0.032 41.476    7  0.273    7  0.273   11  0.193    6 0.5280    7  4.015    4  0.456   17 -0.071
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.035 39.634   23 -0.284   23 -0.289   23 -0.288   23 0.4703   23  3.925   26 -0.488   18 -0.087
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.020 40.964   24 -0.405   24 -0.401   25 -0.510   24 0.4603   28  3.882   29 -0.924   19 -0.097
LAKERS        49 38 10219 10172  0.057 44.075   11  0.214   11  0.206   15  0.120   11 0.5207    6  4.016    6  0.390   20 -0.149
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         50 34  9973  9760 -0.002 40.314   10  0.221   10  0.213   17  0.116   10 0.5208    5  4.022    5  0.415   21 -0.184
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.008 41.700   27 -0.594   27 -0.595   29 -0.608   27 0.4446   26  3.898   30 -0.943   22 -0.274
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.006 41.554   26 -0.536   26 -0.542   22 -0.286   26 0.4477   11  3.986   20 -0.175   23 -0.397
PACERS        48 37 10438 10200  0.009 41.054   16  0.151   16  0.142    7  0.246   15 0.5143    1  4.097    1  0.952   24 -0.461
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.064 40.201   28 -0.624   28 -0.622   30 -0.672   28 0.4383   22  3.927   28 -0.863   25 -0.482
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.064 40.159   30 -0.866   30 -0.894   28 -0.603   30 0.4179   13  3.976   27 -0.544   26 -0.662
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.033 39.995   21 -0.179   21 -0.177   21 -0.203   21 0.4809    2  4.055   10  0.277   27 -0.682
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.016 41.549   22 -0.264   22 -0.266   24 -0.342   22 0.4744    4  4.035   16  0.029   28 -0.713
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.053 39.890   25 -0.498   25 -0.499   26 -0.590   25 0.4499   10  3.990   25 -0.454   29 -0.727
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.072 39.874   29 -0.840   29 -0.864   27 -0.595   29 0.4199    3  4.048   19 -0.154   30 -1.037
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          49 35  9720  9506  0.038 41.522    9  0.229    9  0.221    8  0.244    9 0.5227   14  3.974    9  0.295   11  0.193
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.061 42.371   13  0.194   13  0.184    9  0.239   12 0.5194   12  3.982    8  0.330   12  0.147
CLIPPERS      52 32  9683  9405  0.031 41.175    5  0.304    5  0.305   13  0.151    5 0.5313   16  3.966   12  0.164   13  0.139
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.034 40.950   14  0.162   14  0.153   10  0.194   14 0.5158    8  3.999    7  0.376   16  0.012
LAKERS        49 38 10219 10172  0.057 44.075   11  0.214   11  0.206   15  0.120   11 0.5207    6  4.016    6  0.390   20 -0.149

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIMBERWOLVES  58 26  9489  8923  0.042 40.701    4  0.494    4  0.475    3  0.450    4 0.5478   27  3.883   15  0.041    1  0.859
NUGGETS       60 25  9745  9294  0.036 41.357    2  0.538    2  0.533    4  0.385    2 0.5514   20  3.936   11  0.243    6  0.527
THUNDER       59 25 10065  9423  0.051 40.873    3  0.534    3  0.518    2  0.531    3 0.5509    9  3.997    3  0.703    8  0.359
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.008 41.700   27 -0.594   27 -0.595   29 -0.608   27 0.4446   26  3.898   30 -0.943   22 -0.274
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.016 41.549   22 -0.264   22 -0.266   24 -0.342   22 0.4744    4  4.035   16  0.029   28 -0.713

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PELICANS      50 36  9831  9500  0.052 42.687    8  0.236    8  0.225    6  0.262    8 0.5234   19  3.943   13  0.152    7  0.371
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.016 40.176   19  0.016   19  0.012   18  0.071   19 0.5016   17  3.953   18  0.012   14  0.131
MAVERICKS     51 33  9857  9685  0.032 41.476    7  0.273    7  0.273   11  0.193    6 0.5280    7  4.015    4  0.456   17 -0.071
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.020 40.964   24 -0.405   24 -0.401   25 -0.510   24 0.4603   28  3.882   29 -0.924   19 -0.097
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.006 41.554   26 -0.536   26 -0.542   22 -0.286   26 0.4477   11  3.986   20 -0.175   23 -0.397

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     50 35  9512  9328 -0.015 40.436   12  0.195   12  0.186   19  0.037   13 0.5178   24  3.908   22 -0.245    9  0.319
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.038 40.156   20 -0.079   20 -0.085   20 -0.109   20 0.4904   21  3.930   23 -0.285   15  0.066
BUCKS         50 34  9973  9760 -0.002 40.314   10  0.221   10  0.213   17  0.116   10 0.5208    5  4.022    5  0.415   21 -0.184
PACERS        48 37 10438 10200  0.009 41.054   16  0.151   16  0.142    7  0.246   15 0.5143    1  4.097    1  0.952   24 -0.461
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.064 40.159   30 -0.866   30 -0.894   28 -0.603   30 0.4179   13  3.976   27 -0.544   26 -0.662

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          48 38  9453  9299 -0.015 41.000   18  0.125   18  0.121   12  0.180   18 0.5105   29  3.881   21 -0.238    3  0.599
MAGIC         48 37  9348  9168 -0.020 40.292   17  0.142   17  0.136   14  0.127   17 0.5119   30  3.876   24 -0.313    5  0.566
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.064 40.201   28 -0.624   28 -0.622   30 -0.672   28 0.4383   22  3.927   28 -0.863   25 -0.482
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.033 39.995   21 -0.179   21 -0.177   21 -0.203   21 0.4809    2  4.055   10  0.277   27 -0.682
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.072 39.874   29 -0.840   29 -0.864   27 -0.595   29 0.4199    3  4.048   19 -0.154   30 -1.037

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       65 19 10102  9162  0.025 39.461    1  0.702    1  0.686    1  0.706    1 0.5632   15  3.969    2  0.729    2  0.682
KNICKS        52 33  9578  9203  0.021 40.934    6  0.280    6  0.278    5  0.307    7 0.5257   25  3.908   17  0.025    4  0.589
76ERS         49 37  9832  9580 -0.006 41.012   15  0.161   15  0.153   16  0.118   16 0.5135   18  3.949   14  0.042   10  0.194
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.035 39.634   23 -0.284   23 -0.289   23 -0.288   23 0.4703   23  3.925   26 -0.488   18 -0.087
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.053 39.890   25 -0.498   25 -0.499   26 -0.590   25 0.4499   10  3.990   25 -0.454   29 -0.727

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PACIFIC DIVISION   243 179 0.576    1  0.190
NORTHWEST DIVISION 229 188 0.549    2  0.118
ATLANTIC DIVISION  223 196 0.532    3  0.116
CENTRAL DIVISION   202 218 0.481    4 -0.064
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 191 225 0.459    5 -0.079
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 168 250 0.402    6 -0.291

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.184 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Apr 26 05:30:17 2024
games through: Thu Apr 25 2024

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