Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       60 13 8710 7794  0.077 36.359    1  0.848    1  0.856    1  0.879    1 0.5788   17  3.956    2  0.852    1  0.907
CAVALIERS     58 14 8802 8053  0.009 34.103    2  0.748    2  0.752    2  0.638    2 0.5704    5  4.032    1  1.007    8  0.269
CELTICS       53 19 8396 7761  0.016 34.723    3  0.562    3  0.558    3  0.559    3 0.5558   23  3.932    5  0.407    2  0.711
ROCKETS       47 26 8294 7967  0.056 36.998    4  0.374    4  0.370    7  0.282    4 0.5369   25  3.918   14  0.062    6  0.502
NUGGETS       45 28 8810 8541  0.027 36.448    5  0.286    5  0.283   10  0.206    5 0.5290    2  4.049    4  0.663   19 -0.250
KNICKS        45 26 8274 7967 -0.030 33.809    6  0.283    6  0.278   11  0.181    6 0.5284   15  3.967   10  0.208   12  0.155
GRIZZLIES     44 28 8812 8406  0.009 35.115    7  0.262    7  0.254    6  0.288    7 0.5254    1  4.069    3  0.851   21 -0.275
LAKERS        43 28 8004 7954 -0.011 35.066    8  0.232    8  0.235   14  0.053    8 0.5230   21  3.942   19 -0.046   13  0.153
WARRIORS      41 31 8134 7989  0.035 36.493    9  0.197    9  0.194   12  0.139   10 0.5184   22  3.940   15  0.028    9  0.250
PACERS        42 29 8278 8177 -0.024 34.584   10  0.190   10  0.188   13  0.139    9 0.5195    6  4.003    7  0.351   16 -0.074
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIMBERWOLVES  41 32 8289 7980  0.056 37.078   11  0.183   11  0.174    4  0.361   11 0.5183   24  3.918   12  0.142    4  0.580
CLIPPERS      40 31 7936 7701  0.039 35.807   12  0.175   12  0.171    5  0.291   13 0.5170   27  3.892   20 -0.060    3  0.642
BUCKS         41 31 8219 8038  0.008 35.589   13  0.161   13  0.159    9  0.207   12 0.5171   16  3.958   11  0.189   10  0.225
PISTONS       41 32 8427 8239 -0.033 35.045   14  0.097   14  0.098    8  0.255   14 0.5118   14  3.972    9  0.309   11  0.201
MAVERICKS     35 38 8401 8425  0.037 37.510   15 -0.004   15 -0.002   21 -0.122   15 0.4982    9  3.990   17  0.026   20 -0.270
KINGS         35 37 8354 8341  0.012 36.258   16 -0.017   16 -0.018   15 -0.014   16 0.4969   10  3.988   13  0.122   18 -0.149
HAWKS         35 37 8465 8593 -0.017 35.912   17 -0.037   17 -0.035   18 -0.080   17 0.4966    4  4.043    8  0.344   26 -0.504
SUNS          35 37 8251 8326 -0.026 35.489   18 -0.053   18 -0.052   16 -0.044   18 0.4946   12  3.975   16  0.027   17 -0.115
MAGIC         35 38 7671 7745 -0.051 35.370   19 -0.087   19 -0.087   22 -0.151   19 0.4915   30  3.824   28 -0.832    5  0.531
TRAIL BLAZERS 32 41 8100 8338  0.010 37.409   20 -0.132   20 -0.129   17 -0.052   20 0.4867   20  3.944   21 -0.144   15  0.040
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BULLS         32 40 8446 8621 -0.019 35.981   21 -0.141   21 -0.138   19 -0.092   21 0.4863    3  4.049    6  0.364   27 -0.549
SPURS         31 40 8115 8251 -0.021 35.272   22 -0.163   22 -0.160   23 -0.157   23 0.4826    8  3.992   18  0.001   23 -0.316
HEAT          31 41 7863 7941 -0.011 35.891   23 -0.172   23 -0.172   20 -0.121   22 0.4832   28  3.883   26 -0.515    7  0.273
RAPTORS       25 47 7948 8331 -0.012 36.810   24 -0.368   24 -0.365   24 -0.357   24 0.4652   18  3.948   23 -0.428   22 -0.286
NETS          23 49 7582 8031 -0.013 36.892   25 -0.425   25 -0.419   26 -0.414   25 0.4587   29  3.867   29 -0.887   14  0.059
76ERS         23 49 7918 8324 -0.017 36.608   26 -0.430   26 -0.428   25 -0.406   26 0.4576   19  3.948   25 -0.478   24 -0.335
PELICANS      20 53 8071 8702  0.002 38.126   27 -0.531   27 -0.531   27 -0.519   27 0.4486   13  3.974   24 -0.454   28 -0.585
HORNETS       18 54 7617 8205 -0.061 35.951   28 -0.633   28 -0.637   29 -0.652   28 0.4383   26  3.901   30 -0.961   25 -0.344
JAZZ          16 57 8166 8764 -0.015 37.536   29 -0.681   29 -0.686   28 -0.558   29 0.4333    7  3.998   22 -0.370   29 -0.745
WIZARDS       15 56 7710 8558 -0.046 36.427   30 -0.725   30 -0.726   30 -0.753   30 0.4314   11  3.978   27 -0.667   30 -0.839
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        43 28 8004 7954 -0.011 35.066    8  0.232    8  0.235   14  0.053    8 0.5230   21  3.942   19 -0.046   13  0.153
WARRIORS      41 31 8134 7989  0.035 36.493    9  0.197    9  0.194   12  0.139   10 0.5184   22  3.940   15  0.028    9  0.250
CLIPPERS      40 31 7936 7701  0.039 35.807   12  0.175   12  0.171    5  0.291   13 0.5170   27  3.892   20 -0.060    3  0.642
KINGS         35 37 8354 8341  0.012 36.258   16 -0.017   16 -0.018   15 -0.014   16 0.4969   10  3.988   13  0.122   18 -0.149
SUNS          35 37 8251 8326 -0.026 35.489   18 -0.053   18 -0.052   16 -0.044   18 0.4946   12  3.975   16  0.027   17 -0.115

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       60 13 8710 7794  0.077 36.359    1  0.848    1  0.856    1  0.879    1 0.5788   17  3.956    2  0.852    1  0.907
NUGGETS       45 28 8810 8541  0.027 36.448    5  0.286    5  0.283   10  0.206    5 0.5290    2  4.049    4  0.663   19 -0.250
TIMBERWOLVES  41 32 8289 7980  0.056 37.078   11  0.183   11  0.174    4  0.361   11 0.5183   24  3.918   12  0.142    4  0.580
TRAIL BLAZERS 32 41 8100 8338  0.010 37.409   20 -0.132   20 -0.129   17 -0.052   20 0.4867   20  3.944   21 -0.144   15  0.040
JAZZ          16 57 8166 8764 -0.015 37.536   29 -0.681   29 -0.686   28 -0.558   29 0.4333    7  3.998   22 -0.370   29 -0.745

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       47 26 8294 7967  0.056 36.998    4  0.374    4  0.370    7  0.282    4 0.5369   25  3.918   14  0.062    6  0.502
GRIZZLIES     44 28 8812 8406  0.009 35.115    7  0.262    7  0.254    6  0.288    7 0.5254    1  4.069    3  0.851   21 -0.275
MAVERICKS     35 38 8401 8425  0.037 37.510   15 -0.004   15 -0.002   21 -0.122   15 0.4982    9  3.990   17  0.026   20 -0.270
SPURS         31 40 8115 8251 -0.021 35.272   22 -0.163   22 -0.160   23 -0.157   23 0.4826    8  3.992   18  0.001   23 -0.316
PELICANS      20 53 8071 8702  0.002 38.126   27 -0.531   27 -0.531   27 -0.519   27 0.4486   13  3.974   24 -0.454   28 -0.585

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     58 14 8802 8053  0.009 34.103    2  0.748    2  0.752    2  0.638    2 0.5704    5  4.032    1  1.007    8  0.269
PACERS        42 29 8278 8177 -0.024 34.584   10  0.190   10  0.188   13  0.139    9 0.5195    6  4.003    7  0.351   16 -0.074
BUCKS         41 31 8219 8038  0.008 35.589   13  0.161   13  0.159    9  0.207   12 0.5171   16  3.958   11  0.189   10  0.225
PISTONS       41 32 8427 8239 -0.033 35.045   14  0.097   14  0.098    8  0.255   14 0.5118   14  3.972    9  0.309   11  0.201
BULLS         32 40 8446 8621 -0.019 35.981   21 -0.141   21 -0.138   19 -0.092   21 0.4863    3  4.049    6  0.364   27 -0.549

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         35 37 8465 8593 -0.017 35.912   17 -0.037   17 -0.035   18 -0.080   17 0.4966    4  4.043    8  0.344   26 -0.504
MAGIC         35 38 7671 7745 -0.051 35.370   19 -0.087   19 -0.087   22 -0.151   19 0.4915   30  3.824   28 -0.832    5  0.531
HEAT          31 41 7863 7941 -0.011 35.891   23 -0.172   23 -0.172   20 -0.121   22 0.4832   28  3.883   26 -0.515    7  0.273
HORNETS       18 54 7617 8205 -0.061 35.951   28 -0.633   28 -0.637   29 -0.652   28 0.4383   26  3.901   30 -0.961   25 -0.344
WIZARDS       15 56 7710 8558 -0.046 36.427   30 -0.725   30 -0.726   30 -0.753   30 0.4314   11  3.978   27 -0.667   30 -0.839

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       53 19 8396 7761  0.016 34.723    3  0.562    3  0.558    3  0.559    3 0.5558   23  3.932    5  0.407    2  0.711
KNICKS        45 26 8274 7967 -0.030 33.809    6  0.283    6  0.278   11  0.181    6 0.5284   15  3.967   10  0.208   12  0.155
RAPTORS       25 47 7948 8331 -0.012 36.810   24 -0.368   24 -0.365   24 -0.357   24 0.4652   18  3.948   23 -0.428   22 -0.286
NETS          23 49 7582 8031 -0.013 36.892   25 -0.425   25 -0.419   26 -0.414   25 0.4587   29  3.867   29 -0.887   14  0.059
76ERS         23 49 7918 8324 -0.017 36.608   26 -0.430   26 -0.428   25 -0.406   26 0.4576   19  3.948   25 -0.478   24 -0.335

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   214 146 0.594    1  0.190
NORTHWEST DIVISION 194 171 0.532    2  0.161
PACIFIC DIVISION   194 164 0.542    3  0.084
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 177 185 0.489    4  0.008
ATLANTIC DIVISION  169 190 0.471    5 -0.074
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 134 226 0.372    6 -0.378

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.155 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.015 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Mar 26 05:30:13 2025
games through: Tue Mar 25 2025

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