Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       68 15  9962  8923  0.071 40.747    1  0.862    1  0.872    1  0.861    1 0.5783   16  3.966    2  0.880    1  0.843
CAVALIERS     64 18  9999  9217  0.017 38.927    2  0.706    2  0.709    2  0.566    2 0.5655    5  4.027    1  0.905   11  0.227
CELTICS       61 21  9534  8787  0.005 38.625    3  0.588    3  0.586    3  0.563    3 0.5555   24  3.923    8  0.366    3  0.760
ROCKETS       52 30  9372  9002  0.071 41.581    4  0.376    4  0.370    7  0.305    4 0.5358   23  3.930   14  0.143    6  0.467
CLIPPERS      50 32  9256  8874  0.051 40.977    5  0.302    5  0.295    4  0.450    5 0.5285   26  3.900   15  0.134    2  0.766
LAKERS        50 32  9298  9198  0.029 41.137    6  0.283    6  0.287   14  0.166    6 0.5276   19  3.948   17  0.095   10  0.238
KNICKS        51 31  9494  9158 -0.007 39.384    7  0.281    7  0.280   10  0.212    8 0.5273   17  3.955   13  0.173    9  0.251
NUGGETS       50 32  9902  9583  0.036 40.744    8  0.279    8  0.280    9  0.253    7 0.5276    4  4.042    4  0.672   18 -0.166
TIMBERWOLVES  49 33  9372  8962  0.051 40.886    9  0.266    9  0.259    5  0.424    9 0.5255   25  3.920   11  0.208    5  0.640
WARRIORS      49 34  9451  9176  0.047 41.783   10  0.256   10  0.253    6  0.309   10 0.5241   21  3.938   12  0.187    8  0.431
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACERS        50 32  9624  9441 -0.023 39.347   11  0.241   11  0.238   13  0.203   11 0.5236    7  4.004    5  0.418   15 -0.013
BUCKS         49 34  9569  9350  0.002 40.461   13  0.215   12  0.210   12  0.209   12 0.5211   15  3.970   10  0.251   12  0.167
GRIZZLIES     48 35 10096  9703  0.038 41.072   12  0.217   13  0.207    8  0.259   13 0.5199    1  4.065    3  0.799   20 -0.282
PISTONS       44 38  9471  9315  0.005 40.225   14  0.074   14  0.076   11  0.209   14 0.5085   13  3.975    9  0.277   13  0.142
MAVERICKS     40 43  9484  9568  0.032 42.241   15 -0.005   15 -0.002   21 -0.185   15 0.4984    9  3.983   19 -0.076   21 -0.295
MAGIC         42 41  8765  8750 -0.047 39.660   16 -0.025   16 -0.025   16  0.010   16 0.4977   30  3.819   27 -0.700    4  0.721
KINGS         40 43  9596  9571  0.011 41.306   17 -0.030   17 -0.030   17 -0.002   17 0.4961   10  3.982   16  0.102   16 -0.106
HAWKS         40 43  9786  9904 -0.025 40.684   18 -0.056   18 -0.055   20 -0.073   18 0.4943    2  4.053    6  0.405   27 -0.551
BULLS         39 44  9750  9897 -0.034 40.506   19 -0.101   19 -0.099   18 -0.054   19 0.4907    3  4.048    7  0.397   26 -0.504
SUNS          36 46  9317  9563  0.014 41.670   20 -0.129   20 -0.125   23 -0.211   21 0.4871   11  3.979   20 -0.125   22 -0.298
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          38 45  9178  9113 -0.027 40.057   21 -0.132   21 -0.133   15  0.065   20 0.4874   28  3.887   22 -0.314    7  0.445
TRAIL BLAZERS 36 46  9093  9336  0.002 41.302   22 -0.145   22 -0.139   19 -0.056   22 0.4863   22  3.935   21 -0.196   14  0.084
SPURS         34 48  9342  9568  0.006 41.365   23 -0.194   23 -0.190   22 -0.206   23 0.4804    8  3.994   18 -0.041   23 -0.372
RAPTORS       30 52  9091  9443 -0.041 40.419   24 -0.355   24 -0.357   24 -0.299   24 0.4662   18  3.951   23 -0.357   19 -0.241
NETS          26 56  8619  9202 -0.043 41.017   25 -0.469   25 -0.460   26 -0.567   25 0.4555   29  3.873   29 -1.014   17 -0.120
76ERS         24 58  8988  9499 -0.051 40.535   26 -0.537   26 -0.539   25 -0.523   26 0.4484   20  3.947   26 -0.600   25 -0.447
PELICANS      21 61  9006  9779 -0.003 42.549   27 -0.597   27 -0.598   27 -0.629   27 0.4442   14  3.974   25 -0.569   28 -0.689
HORNETS       19 63  8618  9365 -0.070 40.637   28 -0.710   28 -0.713   29 -0.762   28 0.4334   27  3.893   30 -1.109   24 -0.414
JAZZ          17 65  9175  9941 -0.002 42.492   29 -0.722   29 -0.727   28 -0.658   29 0.4323    6  4.006   24 -0.429   29 -0.886
WIZARDS       18 64  8856  9876 -0.064 41.279   30 -0.738   30 -0.738   30 -0.858   30 0.4317   12  3.976   28 -0.788   30 -0.928
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      50 32  9256  8874  0.051 40.977    5  0.302    5  0.295    4  0.450    5 0.5285   26  3.900   15  0.134    2  0.766
LAKERS        50 32  9298  9198  0.029 41.137    6  0.283    6  0.287   14  0.166    6 0.5276   19  3.948   17  0.095   10  0.238
WARRIORS      49 34  9451  9176  0.047 41.783   10  0.256   10  0.253    6  0.309   10 0.5241   21  3.938   12  0.187    8  0.431
KINGS         40 43  9596  9571  0.011 41.306   17 -0.030   17 -0.030   17 -0.002   17 0.4961   10  3.982   16  0.102   16 -0.106
SUNS          36 46  9317  9563  0.014 41.670   20 -0.129   20 -0.125   23 -0.211   21 0.4871   11  3.979   20 -0.125   22 -0.298

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       68 15  9962  8923  0.071 40.747    1  0.862    1  0.872    1  0.861    1 0.5783   16  3.966    2  0.880    1  0.843
NUGGETS       50 32  9902  9583  0.036 40.744    8  0.279    8  0.280    9  0.253    7 0.5276    4  4.042    4  0.672   18 -0.166
TIMBERWOLVES  49 33  9372  8962  0.051 40.886    9  0.266    9  0.259    5  0.424    9 0.5255   25  3.920   11  0.208    5  0.640
TRAIL BLAZERS 36 46  9093  9336  0.002 41.302   22 -0.145   22 -0.139   19 -0.056   22 0.4863   22  3.935   21 -0.196   14  0.084
JAZZ          17 65  9175  9941 -0.002 42.492   29 -0.722   29 -0.727   28 -0.658   29 0.4323    6  4.006   24 -0.429   29 -0.886

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       52 30  9372  9002  0.071 41.581    4  0.376    4  0.370    7  0.305    4 0.5358   23  3.930   14  0.143    6  0.467
GRIZZLIES     48 35 10096  9703  0.038 41.072   12  0.217   13  0.207    8  0.259   13 0.5199    1  4.065    3  0.799   20 -0.282
MAVERICKS     40 43  9484  9568  0.032 42.241   15 -0.005   15 -0.002   21 -0.185   15 0.4984    9  3.983   19 -0.076   21 -0.295
SPURS         34 48  9342  9568  0.006 41.365   23 -0.194   23 -0.190   22 -0.206   23 0.4804    8  3.994   18 -0.041   23 -0.372
PELICANS      21 61  9006  9779 -0.003 42.549   27 -0.597   27 -0.598   27 -0.629   27 0.4442   14  3.974   25 -0.569   28 -0.689

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     64 18  9999  9217  0.017 38.927    2  0.706    2  0.709    2  0.566    2 0.5655    5  4.027    1  0.905   11  0.227
PACERS        50 32  9624  9441 -0.023 39.347   11  0.241   11  0.238   13  0.203   11 0.5236    7  4.004    5  0.418   15 -0.013
BUCKS         49 34  9569  9350  0.002 40.461   13  0.215   12  0.210   12  0.209   12 0.5211   15  3.970   10  0.251   12  0.167
PISTONS       44 38  9471  9315  0.005 40.225   14  0.074   14  0.076   11  0.209   14 0.5085   13  3.975    9  0.277   13  0.142
BULLS         39 44  9750  9897 -0.034 40.506   19 -0.101   19 -0.099   18 -0.054   19 0.4907    3  4.048    7  0.397   26 -0.504

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         42 41  8765  8750 -0.047 39.660   16 -0.025   16 -0.025   16  0.010   16 0.4977   30  3.819   27 -0.700    4  0.721
HAWKS         40 43  9786  9904 -0.025 40.684   18 -0.056   18 -0.055   20 -0.073   18 0.4943    2  4.053    6  0.405   27 -0.551
HEAT          38 45  9178  9113 -0.027 40.057   21 -0.132   21 -0.133   15  0.065   20 0.4874   28  3.887   22 -0.314    7  0.445
HORNETS       19 63  8618  9365 -0.070 40.637   28 -0.710   28 -0.713   29 -0.762   28 0.4334   27  3.893   30 -1.109   24 -0.414
WIZARDS       18 64  8856  9876 -0.064 41.279   30 -0.738   30 -0.738   30 -0.858   30 0.4317   12  3.976   28 -0.788   30 -0.928

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       61 21  9534  8787  0.005 38.625    3  0.588    3  0.586    3  0.563    3 0.5555   24  3.923    8  0.366    3  0.760
KNICKS        51 31  9494  9158 -0.007 39.384    7  0.281    7  0.280   10  0.212    8 0.5273   17  3.955   13  0.173    9  0.251
RAPTORS       30 52  9091  9443 -0.041 40.419   24 -0.355   24 -0.357   24 -0.299   24 0.4662   18  3.951   23 -0.357   19 -0.241
NETS          26 56  8619  9202 -0.043 41.017   25 -0.469   25 -0.460   26 -0.567   25 0.4555   29  3.873   29 -1.014   17 -0.120
76ERS         24 58  8988  9499 -0.051 40.535   26 -0.537   26 -0.539   25 -0.523   26 0.4484   20  3.947   26 -0.600   25 -0.447

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   246 166 0.597    1  0.194
NORTHWEST DIVISION 220 191 0.535    2  0.165
PACIFIC DIVISION   225 187 0.546    3  0.121
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 195 217 0.473    4 -0.026
ATLANTIC DIVISION  192 218 0.468    5 -0.099
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 157 256 0.380    6 -0.359

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.140 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Apr 17 05:30:15 2025
games through: Wed Apr 16 2025

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