Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       58 13 8486 7588  0.071 35.189    1  0.822    1  0.831    1  0.877    1 0.5773   17  3.958    2  0.859    1  0.895
CAVALIERS     56 14 8560 7851  0.010 33.249    2  0.727    2  0.732    2  0.604    2 0.5693    5  4.036    1  0.993    9  0.215
CELTICS       51 19 8154 7550  0.010 33.611    3  0.535    3  0.529    3  0.526    3 0.5534   23  3.931    5  0.370    2  0.682
TIMBERWOLVES  41 31 8186 7861  0.059 36.603   10  0.205   10  0.192    4  0.394   10 0.5202   24  3.919   13  0.177    4  0.611
ROCKETS       46 25 8062 7737  0.059 36.059    4  0.387    4  0.380    5  0.294    4 0.5380   25  3.918   15  0.072    6  0.515
CLIPPERS      40 30 7835 7598  0.032 35.149   11  0.189   11  0.183    6  0.285   11 0.5185   27  3.894   20 -0.057    3  0.627
GRIZZLIES     43 28 8672 8303  0.016 34.896    8  0.251    8  0.246    7  0.243    8 0.5250    1  4.068    3  0.806   24 -0.320
PISTONS       39 32 8169 8013 -0.027 34.348   14  0.077   14  0.075    8  0.230   14 0.5095   14  3.969    8  0.270   12  0.190
NUGGETS       44 27 8575 8301  0.029 35.490    5  0.297    5  0.291    9  0.224    5 0.5298    2  4.049    4  0.683   19 -0.235
WARRIORS      41 29 7933 7753  0.041 35.530    9  0.235    9  0.233   10  0.212    9 0.5225   20  3.941   14  0.108    7  0.317
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         40 30 7999 7822 -0.001 34.381   12  0.160   13  0.155   11  0.203   12 0.5168   16  3.961   10  0.198   10  0.207
KNICKS        43 26 8024 7751 -0.023 33.174    7  0.261    7  0.259   12  0.156    7 0.5267   15  3.966   12  0.179   13  0.132
LAKERS        43 26 7783 7690  0.001 34.297    6  0.281    6  0.284   13  0.139    6 0.5280   22  3.936   17  0.009    8  0.269
PACERS        40 29 8051 7971 -0.027 33.593   13  0.155   12  0.157   14  0.111   13 0.5167    6  4.005    6  0.333   16 -0.112
KINGS         35 34 8046 7993  0.001 34.384   15  0.021   15  0.019   15  0.031   15 0.5010    9  3.991   11  0.185   17 -0.123
TRAIL BLAZERS 32 39 7873 8087 -0.000 36.091   19 -0.111   19 -0.109   16 -0.035   19 0.4887   21  3.940   21 -0.144   14  0.073
SUNS          34 37 8143 8220 -0.023 35.111   18 -0.064   18 -0.066   17 -0.047   18 0.4932   12  3.977   16  0.034   18 -0.128
HAWKS         33 36 8095 8238 -0.025 34.305   17 -0.058   17 -0.058   18 -0.117   17 0.4943    4  4.039    7  0.289   26 -0.523
MAVERICKS     34 37 8168 8196  0.039 36.570   16 -0.000   16 -0.000   19 -0.136   16 0.4982   10  3.988   18  0.002   21 -0.275
MAGIC         33 38 7442 7535 -0.049 34.552   20 -0.119   20 -0.118   20 -0.180   20 0.4880   30  3.820   29 -0.878    5  0.518
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SPURS         30 39 7896 8040 -0.021 34.344   21 -0.165   21 -0.162   21 -0.181   21 0.4825    8  3.996   19 -0.003   25 -0.360
BULLS         30 40 8171 8387 -0.036 34.673   22 -0.191   22 -0.187   22 -0.182   22 0.4809    3  4.045    9  0.254   28 -0.619
HEAT          29 41 7629 7750 -0.006 35.161   23 -0.203   23 -0.202   23 -0.192   23 0.4799   28  3.883   26 -0.584   11  0.201
RAPTORS       24 46 7747 8104  0.001 36.063   24 -0.365   24 -0.365   24 -0.307   24 0.4649   18  3.951   23 -0.360   20 -0.254
76ERS         23 47 7700 8080 -0.012 35.713   25 -0.402   26 -0.399   25 -0.372   26 0.4600   19  3.947   24 -0.444   22 -0.300
NETS          23 47 7378 7803 -0.018 35.755   26 -0.404   25 -0.398   26 -0.396   25 0.4604   29  3.868   28 -0.864   15  0.072
JAZZ          16 55 7972 8504 -0.020 36.295   29 -0.664   29 -0.671   27 -0.486   29 0.4343    7  4.001   22 -0.280   29 -0.692
PELICANS      19 52 7829 8467  0.008 37.307   27 -0.539   27 -0.538   28 -0.549   27 0.4479   13  3.971   25 -0.499   27 -0.599
HORNETS       18 52 7408 7972 -0.063 34.931   28 -0.613   28 -0.617   29 -0.639   28 0.4401   26  3.897   30 -0.962   23 -0.315
WIZARDS       15 54 7503 8324 -0.046 35.382   30 -0.704   30 -0.704   30 -0.739   30 0.4327   11  3.980   27 -0.642   30 -0.836
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      40 30 7835 7598  0.032 35.149   11  0.189   11  0.183    6  0.285   11 0.5185   27  3.894   20 -0.057    3  0.627
WARRIORS      41 29 7933 7753  0.041 35.530    9  0.235    9  0.233   10  0.212    9 0.5225   20  3.941   14  0.108    7  0.317
LAKERS        43 26 7783 7690  0.001 34.297    6  0.281    6  0.284   13  0.139    6 0.5280   22  3.936   17  0.009    8  0.269
KINGS         35 34 8046 7993  0.001 34.384   15  0.021   15  0.019   15  0.031   15 0.5010    9  3.991   11  0.185   17 -0.123
SUNS          34 37 8143 8220 -0.023 35.111   18 -0.064   18 -0.066   17 -0.047   18 0.4932   12  3.977   16  0.034   18 -0.128

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       58 13 8486 7588  0.071 35.189    1  0.822    1  0.831    1  0.877    1 0.5773   17  3.958    2  0.859    1  0.895
TIMBERWOLVES  41 31 8186 7861  0.059 36.603   10  0.205   10  0.192    4  0.394   10 0.5202   24  3.919   13  0.177    4  0.611
NUGGETS       44 27 8575 8301  0.029 35.490    5  0.297    5  0.291    9  0.224    5 0.5298    2  4.049    4  0.683   19 -0.235
TRAIL BLAZERS 32 39 7873 8087 -0.000 36.091   19 -0.111   19 -0.109   16 -0.035   19 0.4887   21  3.940   21 -0.144   14  0.073
JAZZ          16 55 7972 8504 -0.020 36.295   29 -0.664   29 -0.671   27 -0.486   29 0.4343    7  4.001   22 -0.280   29 -0.692

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       46 25 8062 7737  0.059 36.059    4  0.387    4  0.380    5  0.294    4 0.5380   25  3.918   15  0.072    6  0.515
GRIZZLIES     43 28 8672 8303  0.016 34.896    8  0.251    8  0.246    7  0.243    8 0.5250    1  4.068    3  0.806   24 -0.320
MAVERICKS     34 37 8168 8196  0.039 36.570   16 -0.000   16 -0.000   19 -0.136   16 0.4982   10  3.988   18  0.002   21 -0.275
SPURS         30 39 7896 8040 -0.021 34.344   21 -0.165   21 -0.162   21 -0.181   21 0.4825    8  3.996   19 -0.003   25 -0.360
PELICANS      19 52 7829 8467  0.008 37.307   27 -0.539   27 -0.538   28 -0.549   27 0.4479   13  3.971   25 -0.499   27 -0.599

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     56 14 8560 7851  0.010 33.249    2  0.727    2  0.732    2  0.604    2 0.5693    5  4.036    1  0.993    9  0.215
PISTONS       39 32 8169 8013 -0.027 34.348   14  0.077   14  0.075    8  0.230   14 0.5095   14  3.969    8  0.270   12  0.190
BUCKS         40 30 7999 7822 -0.001 34.381   12  0.160   13  0.155   11  0.203   12 0.5168   16  3.961   10  0.198   10  0.207
PACERS        40 29 8051 7971 -0.027 33.593   13  0.155   12  0.157   14  0.111   13 0.5167    6  4.005    6  0.333   16 -0.112
BULLS         30 40 8171 8387 -0.036 34.673   22 -0.191   22 -0.187   22 -0.182   22 0.4809    3  4.045    9  0.254   28 -0.619

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         33 36 8095 8238 -0.025 34.305   17 -0.058   17 -0.058   18 -0.117   17 0.4943    4  4.039    7  0.289   26 -0.523
MAGIC         33 38 7442 7535 -0.049 34.552   20 -0.119   20 -0.118   20 -0.180   20 0.4880   30  3.820   29 -0.878    5  0.518
HEAT          29 41 7629 7750 -0.006 35.161   23 -0.203   23 -0.202   23 -0.192   23 0.4799   28  3.883   26 -0.584   11  0.201
HORNETS       18 52 7408 7972 -0.063 34.931   28 -0.613   28 -0.617   29 -0.639   28 0.4401   26  3.897   30 -0.962   23 -0.315
WIZARDS       15 54 7503 8324 -0.046 35.382   30 -0.704   30 -0.704   30 -0.739   30 0.4327   11  3.980   27 -0.642   30 -0.836

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       51 19 8154 7550  0.010 33.611    3  0.535    3  0.529    3  0.526    3 0.5534   23  3.931    5  0.370    2  0.682
KNICKS        43 26 8024 7751 -0.023 33.174    7  0.261    7  0.259   12  0.156    7 0.5267   15  3.966   12  0.179   13  0.132
RAPTORS       24 46 7747 8104  0.001 36.063   24 -0.365   24 -0.365   24 -0.307   24 0.4649   18  3.951   23 -0.360   20 -0.254
76ERS         23 47 7700 8080 -0.012 35.713   25 -0.402   26 -0.399   25 -0.372   26 0.4600   19  3.947   24 -0.444   22 -0.300
NETS          23 47 7378 7803 -0.018 35.755   26 -0.404   25 -0.398   26 -0.396   25 0.4604   29  3.868   28 -0.864   15  0.072

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 191 165 0.537    1  0.178
CENTRAL DIVISION   205 145 0.586    2  0.164
PACIFIC DIVISION   193 156 0.553    3  0.111
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 172 181 0.487    4 -0.002
ATLANTIC DIVISION  164 185 0.470    5 -0.069
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 128 221 0.367    6 -0.394

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.158 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.015 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Mar 22 05:30:12 2025
games through: Fri Mar 21 2025

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