Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       45 11 6574 5869  0.055 27.587    2  0.752    2  0.754    1  0.829    2 0.5722   22  3.927    4  0.672    1  0.987
CAVALIERS     46 10 6877 6246  0.000 26.408    1  0.752    1  0.760    2  0.710    1 0.5722    4  4.038    1  1.124    7  0.296
CELTICS       40 16 6571 6052  0.021 27.267    3  0.484    3  0.479    3  0.601    3 0.5507   20  3.938    5  0.499    2  0.702
GRIZZLIES     37 19 6875 6483 -0.002 27.191    4  0.354    5  0.349    4  0.389    4 0.5363    1  4.075    2  1.003   22 -0.225
NUGGETS       37 19 6813 6487 -0.006 27.269    6  0.346    6  0.345    5  0.376    6 0.5346    2  4.051    3  0.859   18 -0.107
TIMBERWOLVES  31 26 6360 6175  0.073 29.806    9  0.160   11  0.145    6  0.306    9 0.5161   26  3.898   16  0.001    3  0.611
ROCKETS       35 21 6321 6090  0.104 29.682    5  0.354    4  0.353    7  0.276    5 0.5359   24  3.914   14  0.052    6  0.500
KNICKS        37 19 6613 6327 -0.047 26.429    7  0.314    7  0.314    8  0.220    7 0.5330    9  3.993    6  0.398   13  0.042
CLIPPERS      31 24 6102 5949  0.020 27.647   11  0.159   10  0.149    9  0.189   11 0.5145   27  3.890   20 -0.157    4  0.534
MAVERICKS     31 26 6591 6459  0.058 29.487   10  0.160    9  0.150   10  0.134   12 0.5132   11  3.978    8  0.235   14  0.033
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PISTONS       30 26 6371 6330 -0.027 27.587   15  0.062   15  0.051   11  0.111   15 0.5077   16  3.957   11  0.103   11  0.119
LAKERS        33 21 6097 6051 -0.029 26.566    8  0.227    8  0.227   12  0.084    8 0.5230   18  3.948   15  0.031   10  0.138
PACERS        31 23 6276 6240 -0.032 26.516   12  0.148   12  0.140   13  0.076   10 0.5157    6  4.009    7  0.337   20 -0.184
BUCKS         32 24 6374 6275 -0.052 26.834   13  0.122   13  0.110   14  0.059   13 0.5122   15  3.964   13  0.087   15  0.030
WARRIORS      29 27 6287 6247  0.069 29.543   14  0.119   14  0.106   15  0.057   14 0.5091   21  3.938   17 -0.049    9  0.163
KINGS         28 28 6531 6513 -0.033 27.533   16 -0.015   16 -0.025   16 -0.057   16 0.4971    7  4.002   10  0.169   24 -0.282
HEAT          26 28 5942 5979 -0.017 27.010   17 -0.046   17 -0.054   17 -0.097   17 0.4954   25  3.899   24 -0.398    8  0.203
SPURS         24 30 6104 6185 -0.014 27.200   21 -0.125   21 -0.130   18 -0.117   21 0.4861   14  3.966   18 -0.078   19 -0.156
HAWKS         26 30 6528 6667 -0.022 28.267   19 -0.081   19 -0.083   19 -0.142   19 0.4917    5  4.023    9  0.194   26 -0.478
SUNS          26 29 6222 6329 -0.043 27.177   20 -0.088   20 -0.091   20 -0.175   20 0.4911   12  3.971   19 -0.109   23 -0.242
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         28 30 6042 6118 -0.043 28.585   18 -0.069   18 -0.073   21 -0.207   18 0.4934   30  3.812   30 -0.931    5  0.517
76ERS         20 35 5996 6222 -0.012 28.094   24 -0.308   24 -0.307   22 -0.244   25 0.4680   23  3.922   25 -0.427   17 -0.061
TRAIL BLAZERS 23 33 6108 6424  0.004 29.137   22 -0.194   22 -0.185   23 -0.263   22 0.4803   19  3.944   23 -0.338   21 -0.188
RAPTORS       17 39 6192 6528  0.062 30.466   26 -0.399   26 -0.395   24 -0.295   26 0.4615   17  3.956   22 -0.305   25 -0.284
BULLS         22 34 6491 6751 -0.046 28.102   23 -0.267   23 -0.260   25 -0.362   23 0.4719    3  4.046   12  0.097   29 -0.820
JAZZ          13 42 6171 6576  0.016 28.964   27 -0.588   27 -0.591   26 -0.403   27 0.4410    8  4.000   21 -0.189   28 -0.617
NETS          20 35 5768 6104 -0.023 28.228   25 -0.316   25 -0.307   27 -0.418   24 0.4682   29  3.862   29 -0.899   12  0.063
HORNETS       14 40 5740 6038 -0.078 26.574   28 -0.603   28 -0.610   28 -0.419   29 0.4394   28  3.885   28 -0.786   16 -0.051
PELICANS      13 43 6185 6680 -0.003 29.712   29 -0.624   29 -0.628   29 -0.488   28 0.4394   13  3.968   26 -0.440   27 -0.536
WIZARDS        9 46 5963 6691 -0.002 29.602   30 -0.791   30 -0.799   30 -0.786   30 0.4239   10  3.980   27 -0.674   30 -0.897
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      31 24 6102 5949  0.020 27.647   11  0.159   10  0.149    9  0.189   11 0.5145   27  3.890   20 -0.157    4  0.534
LAKERS        33 21 6097 6051 -0.029 26.566    8  0.227    8  0.227   12  0.084    8 0.5230   18  3.948   15  0.031   10  0.138
WARRIORS      29 27 6287 6247  0.069 29.543   14  0.119   14  0.106   15  0.057   14 0.5091   21  3.938   17 -0.049    9  0.163
KINGS         28 28 6531 6513 -0.033 27.533   16 -0.015   16 -0.025   16 -0.057   16 0.4971    7  4.002   10  0.169   24 -0.282
SUNS          26 29 6222 6329 -0.043 27.177   20 -0.088   20 -0.091   20 -0.175   20 0.4911   12  3.971   19 -0.109   23 -0.242

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       45 11 6574 5869  0.055 27.587    2  0.752    2  0.754    1  0.829    2 0.5722   22  3.927    4  0.672    1  0.987
NUGGETS       37 19 6813 6487 -0.006 27.269    6  0.346    6  0.345    5  0.376    6 0.5346    2  4.051    3  0.859   18 -0.107
TIMBERWOLVES  31 26 6360 6175  0.073 29.806    9  0.160   11  0.145    6  0.306    9 0.5161   26  3.898   16  0.001    3  0.611
TRAIL BLAZERS 23 33 6108 6424  0.004 29.137   22 -0.194   22 -0.185   23 -0.263   22 0.4803   19  3.944   23 -0.338   21 -0.188
JAZZ          13 42 6171 6576  0.016 28.964   27 -0.588   27 -0.591   26 -0.403   27 0.4410    8  4.000   21 -0.189   28 -0.617

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     37 19 6875 6483 -0.002 27.191    4  0.354    5  0.349    4  0.389    4 0.5363    1  4.075    2  1.003   22 -0.225
ROCKETS       35 21 6321 6090  0.104 29.682    5  0.354    4  0.353    7  0.276    5 0.5359   24  3.914   14  0.052    6  0.500
MAVERICKS     31 26 6591 6459  0.058 29.487   10  0.160    9  0.150   10  0.134   12 0.5132   11  3.978    8  0.235   14  0.033
SPURS         24 30 6104 6185 -0.014 27.200   21 -0.125   21 -0.130   18 -0.117   21 0.4861   14  3.966   18 -0.078   19 -0.156
PELICANS      13 43 6185 6680 -0.003 29.712   29 -0.624   29 -0.628   29 -0.488   28 0.4394   13  3.968   26 -0.440   27 -0.536

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     46 10 6877 6246  0.000 26.408    1  0.752    1  0.760    2  0.710    1 0.5722    4  4.038    1  1.124    7  0.296
PISTONS       30 26 6371 6330 -0.027 27.587   15  0.062   15  0.051   11  0.111   15 0.5077   16  3.957   11  0.103   11  0.119
PACERS        31 23 6276 6240 -0.032 26.516   12  0.148   12  0.140   13  0.076   10 0.5157    6  4.009    7  0.337   20 -0.184
BUCKS         32 24 6374 6275 -0.052 26.834   13  0.122   13  0.110   14  0.059   13 0.5122   15  3.964   13  0.087   15  0.030
BULLS         22 34 6491 6751 -0.046 28.102   23 -0.267   23 -0.260   25 -0.362   23 0.4719    3  4.046   12  0.097   29 -0.820

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          26 28 5942 5979 -0.017 27.010   17 -0.046   17 -0.054   17 -0.097   17 0.4954   25  3.899   24 -0.398    8  0.203
HAWKS         26 30 6528 6667 -0.022 28.267   19 -0.081   19 -0.083   19 -0.142   19 0.4917    5  4.023    9  0.194   26 -0.478
MAGIC         28 30 6042 6118 -0.043 28.585   18 -0.069   18 -0.073   21 -0.207   18 0.4934   30  3.812   30 -0.931    5  0.517
HORNETS       14 40 5740 6038 -0.078 26.574   28 -0.603   28 -0.610   28 -0.419   29 0.4394   28  3.885   28 -0.786   16 -0.051
WIZARDS        9 46 5963 6691 -0.002 29.602   30 -0.791   30 -0.799   30 -0.786   30 0.4239   10  3.980   27 -0.674   30 -0.897

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       40 16 6571 6052  0.021 27.267    3  0.484    3  0.479    3  0.601    3 0.5507   20  3.938    5  0.499    2  0.702
KNICKS        37 19 6613 6327 -0.047 26.429    7  0.314    7  0.314    8  0.220    7 0.5330    9  3.993    6  0.398   13  0.042
76ERS         20 35 5996 6222 -0.012 28.094   24 -0.308   24 -0.307   22 -0.244   25 0.4680   23  3.922   25 -0.427   17 -0.061
RAPTORS       17 39 6192 6528  0.062 30.466   26 -0.399   26 -0.395   24 -0.295   26 0.4615   17  3.956   22 -0.305   25 -0.284
NETS          20 35 5768 6104 -0.023 28.228   25 -0.316   25 -0.307   27 -0.418   24 0.4682   29  3.862   29 -0.899   12  0.063

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 149 131 0.532    1  0.153
CENTRAL DIVISION   161 117 0.579    2  0.103
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 140 139 0.502    3  0.077
PACIFIC DIVISION   147 129 0.533    4  0.036
ATLANTIC DIVISION  134 144 0.482    5 -0.030
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 103 174 0.372    6 -0.357

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.144 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Feb 22 05:30:09 2025
games through: Fri Feb 21 2025

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