Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     28 15 5292 4941 -0.012 20.424    6  0.306    6  0.297    4  0.482    5 0.5330    1  4.070    1  1.092   21 -0.127
BULLS         19 25 5153 5279 -0.052 21.726   22 -0.184   22 -0.177   22 -0.216   22 0.4806    2  4.055    8  0.308   29 -0.740
NUGGETS       27 16 5190 4962  0.063 21.952    5  0.311    5  0.308    5  0.418    6 0.5325    3  4.035    3  0.840   14 -0.005
CAVALIERS     36  6 5124 4689 -0.028 19.204    1  0.791    1  0.807    3  0.564    2 0.5785    4  4.030    2  0.957    9  0.172
HAWKS         22 20 4916 4999 -0.012 21.227   15  0.051   15  0.055   16 -0.076   14 0.5062    5  4.023   10  0.282   25 -0.434
PACERS        24 19 4952 4926 -0.014 21.307   11  0.125   11  0.115   13  0.117   11 0.5126    6  4.001    7  0.356   20 -0.122
WIZARDS        6 36 4540 5145  0.039 23.384   30 -0.771   30 -0.792   30 -0.838   30 0.4236    7  3.988   28 -0.664   30 -1.012
JAZZ          10 31 4569 4846 -0.027 20.875   29 -0.570   29 -0.576   26 -0.387   29 0.4389    8  3.987   21 -0.218   28 -0.556
KINGS         22 20 4900 4783 -0.047 20.084   17  0.004   17  0.007   12  0.152   18 0.5008    9  3.983    9  0.298   13  0.006
RAPTORS       11 32 4770 5071  0.092 23.865   26 -0.471   26 -0.467   25 -0.348   26 0.4517   10  3.980   20 -0.214   26 -0.482
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KNICKS        29 16 5249 4981 -0.079 20.470    7  0.247    7  0.237    7  0.261    7 0.5258   11  3.977    6  0.378   10  0.144
SUNS          21 21 4733 4806 -0.066 20.298   20 -0.053   20 -0.046   21 -0.185   19 0.4962   12  3.972   15 -0.093   23 -0.277
MAVERICKS     23 20 4952 4807  0.044 21.812   12  0.118   12  0.104   11  0.186   12 0.5103   13  3.964   11  0.237   11  0.135
TRAIL BLAZERS 15 28 4647 5008 -0.008 22.502   23 -0.321   23 -0.308   29 -0.506   24 0.4648   14  3.959   24 -0.483   27 -0.530
PELICANS      12 32 4806 5158 -0.064 22.337   28 -0.548   28 -0.550   27 -0.461   28 0.4456   15  3.948   25 -0.492   24 -0.431
PISTONS       22 21 4823 4865 -0.027 21.301   18 -0.001   18  0.006   15 -0.041   16 0.5011   16  3.948   14 -0.075   15 -0.007
LAKERS        23 18 4560 4642 -0.020 20.574   10  0.141   10  0.131   20 -0.138   10 0.5136   17  3.942   19 -0.199   19 -0.076
SPURS         19 22 4577 4635 -0.007 20.686   21 -0.082   21 -0.075   18 -0.095   21 0.4898   18  3.942   18 -0.157   16 -0.032
CELTICS       30 13 5060 4647 -0.002 20.391    3  0.410    4  0.399    2  0.578    3 0.5445   19  3.941    5  0.511    2  0.645
BUCKS         25 17 4771 4635 -0.046 19.903    9  0.163    9  0.152   10  0.190    9 0.5180   20  3.941   13  0.121    7  0.258
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      21 21 4651 4669  0.079 22.373   14  0.077   13  0.078   17 -0.080   15 0.5056   21  3.927   22 -0.221   12  0.061
ROCKETS       28 14 4780 4529  0.077 21.460    4  0.405    3  0.401    6  0.383    4 0.5414   22  3.918   12  0.201    4  0.565
HEAT          21 21 4667 4626 -0.052 20.196   19 -0.044   19 -0.045   14 -0.003   20 0.4962   23  3.909   23 -0.230    8  0.224
THUNDER       35  8 4971 4449  0.101 21.765    2  0.781    2  0.784    1  0.831    1 0.5787   24  3.908    4  0.595    1  1.066
76ERS         15 27 4515 4719 -0.028 21.265   24 -0.328   24 -0.323   23 -0.313   23 0.4659   25  3.905   26 -0.563   18 -0.062
NETS          14 30 4680 5002  0.032 23.496   25 -0.363   25 -0.350   28 -0.498   25 0.4622   26  3.897   29 -0.785   22 -0.211
HORNETS       11 28 4177 4388 -0.038 19.672   27 -0.492   27 -0.492   24 -0.346   27 0.4484   27  3.896   27 -0.639   17 -0.053
TIMBERWOLVES  22 21 4729 4645  0.072 22.502   13  0.089   14  0.077    9  0.209   13 0.5082   28  3.889   16 -0.118    6  0.535
CLIPPERS      24 18 4598 4479  0.061 21.554    8  0.200    8  0.191    8  0.253    8 0.5193   29  3.878   17 -0.129    3  0.635
MAGIC         23 22 4677 4698 -0.018 22.398   16  0.009   16  0.012   19 -0.136   17 0.5009   30  3.815   30 -0.825    5  0.554
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS         22 20 4900 4783 -0.047 20.084   17  0.004   17  0.007   12  0.152   18 0.5008    9  3.983    9  0.298   13  0.006
SUNS          21 21 4733 4806 -0.066 20.298   20 -0.053   20 -0.046   21 -0.185   19 0.4962   12  3.972   15 -0.093   23 -0.277
LAKERS        23 18 4560 4642 -0.020 20.574   10  0.141   10  0.131   20 -0.138   10 0.5136   17  3.942   19 -0.199   19 -0.076
WARRIORS      21 21 4651 4669  0.079 22.373   14  0.077   13  0.078   17 -0.080   15 0.5056   21  3.927   22 -0.221   12  0.061
CLIPPERS      24 18 4598 4479  0.061 21.554    8  0.200    8  0.191    8  0.253    8 0.5193   29  3.878   17 -0.129    3  0.635

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NUGGETS       27 16 5190 4962  0.063 21.952    5  0.311    5  0.308    5  0.418    6 0.5325    3  4.035    3  0.840   14 -0.005
JAZZ          10 31 4569 4846 -0.027 20.875   29 -0.570   29 -0.576   26 -0.387   29 0.4389    8  3.987   21 -0.218   28 -0.556
TRAIL BLAZERS 15 28 4647 5008 -0.008 22.502   23 -0.321   23 -0.308   29 -0.506   24 0.4648   14  3.959   24 -0.483   27 -0.530
THUNDER       35  8 4971 4449  0.101 21.765    2  0.781    2  0.784    1  0.831    1 0.5787   24  3.908    4  0.595    1  1.066
TIMBERWOLVES  22 21 4729 4645  0.072 22.502   13  0.089   14  0.077    9  0.209   13 0.5082   28  3.889   16 -0.118    6  0.535

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     28 15 5292 4941 -0.012 20.424    6  0.306    6  0.297    4  0.482    5 0.5330    1  4.070    1  1.092   21 -0.127
MAVERICKS     23 20 4952 4807  0.044 21.812   12  0.118   12  0.104   11  0.186   12 0.5103   13  3.964   11  0.237   11  0.135
PELICANS      12 32 4806 5158 -0.064 22.337   28 -0.548   28 -0.550   27 -0.461   28 0.4456   15  3.948   25 -0.492   24 -0.431
SPURS         19 22 4577 4635 -0.007 20.686   21 -0.082   21 -0.075   18 -0.095   21 0.4898   18  3.942   18 -0.157   16 -0.032
ROCKETS       28 14 4780 4529  0.077 21.460    4  0.405    3  0.401    6  0.383    4 0.5414   22  3.918   12  0.201    4  0.565

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BULLS         19 25 5153 5279 -0.052 21.726   22 -0.184   22 -0.177   22 -0.216   22 0.4806    2  4.055    8  0.308   29 -0.740
CAVALIERS     36  6 5124 4689 -0.028 19.204    1  0.791    1  0.807    3  0.564    2 0.5785    4  4.030    2  0.957    9  0.172
PACERS        24 19 4952 4926 -0.014 21.307   11  0.125   11  0.115   13  0.117   11 0.5126    6  4.001    7  0.356   20 -0.122
PISTONS       22 21 4823 4865 -0.027 21.301   18 -0.001   18  0.006   15 -0.041   16 0.5011   16  3.948   14 -0.075   15 -0.007
BUCKS         25 17 4771 4635 -0.046 19.903    9  0.163    9  0.152   10  0.190    9 0.5180   20  3.941   13  0.121    7  0.258

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         22 20 4916 4999 -0.012 21.227   15  0.051   15  0.055   16 -0.076   14 0.5062    5  4.023   10  0.282   25 -0.434
WIZARDS        6 36 4540 5145  0.039 23.384   30 -0.771   30 -0.792   30 -0.838   30 0.4236    7  3.988   28 -0.664   30 -1.012
HEAT          21 21 4667 4626 -0.052 20.196   19 -0.044   19 -0.045   14 -0.003   20 0.4962   23  3.909   23 -0.230    8  0.224
HORNETS       11 28 4177 4388 -0.038 19.672   27 -0.492   27 -0.492   24 -0.346   27 0.4484   27  3.896   27 -0.639   17 -0.053
MAGIC         23 22 4677 4698 -0.018 22.398   16  0.009   16  0.012   19 -0.136   17 0.5009   30  3.815   30 -0.825    5  0.554

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAPTORS       11 32 4770 5071  0.092 23.865   26 -0.471   26 -0.467   25 -0.348   26 0.4517   10  3.980   20 -0.214   26 -0.482
KNICKS        29 16 5249 4981 -0.079 20.470    7  0.247    7  0.237    7  0.261    7 0.5258   11  3.977    6  0.378   10  0.144
CELTICS       30 13 5060 4647 -0.002 20.391    3  0.410    4  0.399    2  0.578    3 0.5445   19  3.941    5  0.511    2  0.645
76ERS         15 27 4515 4719 -0.028 21.265   24 -0.328   24 -0.323   23 -0.313   23 0.4659   25  3.905   26 -0.563   18 -0.062
NETS          14 30 4680 5002  0.032 23.496   25 -0.363   25 -0.350   28 -0.498   25 0.4622   26  3.897   29 -0.785   22 -0.211

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 110 103 0.516    1  0.126
CENTRAL DIVISION   126  88 0.589    2  0.108
NORTHWEST DIVISION 109 104 0.512    3  0.100
PACIFIC DIVISION   111  98 0.531    4  0.019
ATLANTIC DIVISION   99 118 0.456    5 -0.057
SOUTHEAST DIVISION  83 127 0.395    6 -0.307

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.133 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Jan 22 05:30:20 2025
games through: Tue Jan 21 2025

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