Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BULLS         13 16 3424 3522  0.066 15.560   18 -0.043   18 -0.039   16 -0.110   17 0.4962    1  4.079    6  0.551   29 -0.771
GRIZZLIES     20  9 3570 3275 -0.086 12.670    6  0.305    6  0.295    3  0.530    5 0.5381    2  4.043    1  0.997   14  0.064
NUGGETS       14 11 2985 2922  0.095 13.166   11  0.176   11  0.165    8  0.205   11 0.5187    3  4.034    3  0.624   21 -0.213
HAWKS         14 15 3375 3467 -0.057 14.364   19 -0.061   19 -0.049   21 -0.186   18 0.4956    4  4.023    9  0.172   26 -0.544
PACERS        13 15 3210 3277 -0.105 13.269   21 -0.148   20 -0.133   22 -0.212   21 0.4797    5  4.019   12  0.125   27 -0.548
CAVALIERS     25  4 3530 3193 -0.105 12.298    1  0.679    1  0.686    2  0.549    2 0.5722    6  4.016    2  0.869   10  0.230
SUNS          14 13 3085 3107 -0.072 12.878   16 -0.014   17 -0.012   17 -0.122   16 0.4998    7  4.000   14  0.115   23 -0.360
MAVERICKS     18 10 3314 3141  0.056 13.938    5  0.312    5  0.306    6  0.386    6 0.5363    8  3.993    4  0.586   11  0.186
JAZZ           7 20 2975 3221  0.037 14.473   26 -0.434   26 -0.438   27 -0.462   26 0.4508    9  3.983   23 -0.314   28 -0.610
WIZARDS        4 22 2795 3177  0.106 15.163   29 -0.619   29 -0.625   30 -0.719   29 0.4345   10  3.975   27 -0.609   30 -0.828
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS         13 16 3349 3285 -0.121 13.057   23 -0.209   23 -0.201   15  0.016   23 0.4786   11  3.975   13  0.124   16 -0.091
KNICKS        18 10 3263 3063 -0.033 12.970    7  0.241    7  0.230    7  0.373    7 0.5271   12  3.969    7  0.450    8  0.296
RAPTORS        7 21 3127 3267  0.025 14.700   27 -0.490   27 -0.497   25 -0.254   27 0.4403   13  3.967   18 -0.188   22 -0.319
CELTICS       22  6 3349 3069 -0.040 12.842    3  0.538    3  0.535    4  0.529    3 0.5626   14  3.959    5  0.553    5  0.505
WARRIORS      15 12 3053 2992  0.150 14.658    8  0.230    8  0.222   12  0.164    8 0.5244   15  3.951   10  0.152   12  0.176
SPURS         15 13 3130 3156 -0.128 12.887   17 -0.017   16 -0.012   20 -0.174   15 0.5003   16  3.950   19 -0.192   19 -0.156
TRAIL BLAZERS  9 19 2999 3255 -0.029 14.703   25 -0.351   25 -0.345   28 -0.526   25 0.4607   17  3.950   26 -0.548   25 -0.504
LAKERS        16 12 3110 3184 -0.006 14.189   12  0.152   12  0.157   18 -0.159   13 0.5149   18  3.945   20 -0.206   18 -0.113
PISTONS       12 17 3239 3324 -0.002 14.776   22 -0.183   22 -0.174   19 -0.162   22 0.4788   19  3.943   21 -0.216   17 -0.108
BUCKS         16 12 3142 3103  0.036 14.161   10  0.181   10  0.171   14  0.121   10 0.5197   20  3.925   15 -0.023    9  0.266
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          13 13 2918 2858 -0.006 12.791   15  0.002   15 -0.009   13  0.147   19 0.4939   21  3.917   16 -0.038    7  0.333
NETS          11 17 3057 3196  0.083 15.333   20 -0.148   21 -0.134   24 -0.245   20 0.4829   22  3.917   25 -0.431   15 -0.058
PELICANS       5 24 3043 3384 -0.034 15.414   30 -0.686   30 -0.701   29 -0.671   30 0.4292   23  3.911   30 -0.885   24 -0.457
HORNETS        7 21 2985 3163 -0.033 14.224   28 -0.513   28 -0.521   26 -0.421   28 0.4382   24  3.910   28 -0.644   20 -0.197
ROCKETS       18  9 3047 2872  0.104 13.834    4  0.379    4  0.371    5  0.405    4 0.5440   25  3.900   11  0.134    3  0.676
CLIPPERS      16 13 3174 3119  0.081 15.117   13  0.148   13  0.153   10  0.170   12 0.5154   26  3.891   17 -0.145    6  0.486
THUNDER       22  6 3180 2880  0.088 14.039    2  0.628    2  0.633    1  0.655    1 0.5728   27  3.890    8  0.333    1  0.977
76ERS          9 17 2749 2875  0.003 13.404   24 -0.303   24 -0.296   23 -0.241   24 0.4619   28  3.871   29 -0.653   13  0.172
TIMBERWOLVES  14 13 2955 2885 -0.000 13.311   14  0.034   14  0.026   11  0.170   14 0.5027   29  3.869   22 -0.254    4  0.594
MAGIC         18 12 3218 3118  0.011 14.755    9  0.216    9  0.206    9  0.189    9 0.5230   30  3.840   24 -0.375    2  0.752
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          14 13 3085 3107 -0.072 12.878   16 -0.014   17 -0.012   17 -0.122   16 0.4998    7  4.000   14  0.115   23 -0.360
KINGS         13 16 3349 3285 -0.121 13.057   23 -0.209   23 -0.201   15  0.016   23 0.4786   11  3.975   13  0.124   16 -0.091
WARRIORS      15 12 3053 2992  0.150 14.658    8  0.230    8  0.222   12  0.164    8 0.5244   15  3.951   10  0.152   12  0.176
LAKERS        16 12 3110 3184 -0.006 14.189   12  0.152   12  0.157   18 -0.159   13 0.5149   18  3.945   20 -0.206   18 -0.113
CLIPPERS      16 13 3174 3119  0.081 15.117   13  0.148   13  0.153   10  0.170   12 0.5154   26  3.891   17 -0.145    6  0.486

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NUGGETS       14 11 2985 2922  0.095 13.166   11  0.176   11  0.165    8  0.205   11 0.5187    3  4.034    3  0.624   21 -0.213
JAZZ           7 20 2975 3221  0.037 14.473   26 -0.434   26 -0.438   27 -0.462   26 0.4508    9  3.983   23 -0.314   28 -0.610
TRAIL BLAZERS  9 19 2999 3255 -0.029 14.703   25 -0.351   25 -0.345   28 -0.526   25 0.4607   17  3.950   26 -0.548   25 -0.504
THUNDER       22  6 3180 2880  0.088 14.039    2  0.628    2  0.633    1  0.655    1 0.5728   27  3.890    8  0.333    1  0.977
TIMBERWOLVES  14 13 2955 2885 -0.000 13.311   14  0.034   14  0.026   11  0.170   14 0.5027   29  3.869   22 -0.254    4  0.594

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     20  9 3570 3275 -0.086 12.670    6  0.305    6  0.295    3  0.530    5 0.5381    2  4.043    1  0.997   14  0.064
MAVERICKS     18 10 3314 3141  0.056 13.938    5  0.312    5  0.306    6  0.386    6 0.5363    8  3.993    4  0.586   11  0.186
SPURS         15 13 3130 3156 -0.128 12.887   17 -0.017   16 -0.012   20 -0.174   15 0.5003   16  3.950   19 -0.192   19 -0.156
PELICANS       5 24 3043 3384 -0.034 15.414   30 -0.686   30 -0.701   29 -0.671   30 0.4292   23  3.911   30 -0.885   24 -0.457
ROCKETS       18  9 3047 2872  0.104 13.834    4  0.379    4  0.371    5  0.405    4 0.5440   25  3.900   11  0.134    3  0.676

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BULLS         13 16 3424 3522  0.066 15.560   18 -0.043   18 -0.039   16 -0.110   17 0.4962    1  4.079    6  0.551   29 -0.771
PACERS        13 15 3210 3277 -0.105 13.269   21 -0.148   20 -0.133   22 -0.212   21 0.4797    5  4.019   12  0.125   27 -0.548
CAVALIERS     25  4 3530 3193 -0.105 12.298    1  0.679    1  0.686    2  0.549    2 0.5722    6  4.016    2  0.869   10  0.230
PISTONS       12 17 3239 3324 -0.002 14.776   22 -0.183   22 -0.174   19 -0.162   22 0.4788   19  3.943   21 -0.216   17 -0.108
BUCKS         16 12 3142 3103  0.036 14.161   10  0.181   10  0.171   14  0.121   10 0.5197   20  3.925   15 -0.023    9  0.266

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         14 15 3375 3467 -0.057 14.364   19 -0.061   19 -0.049   21 -0.186   18 0.4956    4  4.023    9  0.172   26 -0.544
WIZARDS        4 22 2795 3177  0.106 15.163   29 -0.619   29 -0.625   30 -0.719   29 0.4345   10  3.975   27 -0.609   30 -0.828
HEAT          13 13 2918 2858 -0.006 12.791   15  0.002   15 -0.009   13  0.147   19 0.4939   21  3.917   16 -0.038    7  0.333
HORNETS        7 21 2985 3163 -0.033 14.224   28 -0.513   28 -0.521   26 -0.421   28 0.4382   24  3.910   28 -0.644   20 -0.197
MAGIC         18 12 3218 3118  0.011 14.755    9  0.216    9  0.206    9  0.189    9 0.5230   30  3.840   24 -0.375    2  0.752

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KNICKS        18 10 3263 3063 -0.033 12.970    7  0.241    7  0.230    7  0.373    7 0.5271   12  3.969    7  0.450    8  0.296
RAPTORS        7 21 3127 3267  0.025 14.700   27 -0.490   27 -0.497   25 -0.254   27 0.4403   13  3.967   18 -0.188   22 -0.319
CELTICS       22  6 3349 3069 -0.040 12.842    3  0.538    3  0.535    4  0.529    3 0.5626   14  3.959    5  0.553    5  0.505
NETS          11 17 3057 3196  0.083 15.333   20 -0.148   21 -0.134   24 -0.245   20 0.4829   22  3.917   25 -0.431   15 -0.058
76ERS          9 17 2749 2875  0.003 13.404   24 -0.303   24 -0.296   23 -0.241   24 0.4619   28  3.871   29 -0.653   13  0.172

DIVISION            W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 76 65 0.539    1  0.138
PACIFIC DIVISION   74 66 0.529    2  0.041
ATLANTIC DIVISION  67 71 0.486    3  0.035
CENTRAL DIVISION   79 64 0.552    4  0.029
NORTHWEST DIVISION 66 69 0.489    5  0.006
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 56 83 0.403    6 -0.250

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.159 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.018 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Dec 22 05:30:20 2024
games through: Sat Dec 21 2024

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