Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PATRIOTS   17  2  0 545 311 -0.014  8.405    1  1.327    1  0.511    1  0.411    1 0.6170  1.270  0.398  0.423  0.000
COWBOYS    13  4  0 452 340  0.037  8.296    2  1.135    2  0.343    5  0.155    2 0.5823  1.346  0.245  0.064  0.000
STEELERS   13  6  0 464 391  0.104  9.830    3  1.063    4  0.291    6  0.147    5 0.5708  1.306  0.183  0.111  0.000
FALCONS    13  6  0 648 481  0.109  9.716    4  1.051    6  0.280    2  0.330    6 0.5609  1.725  0.994 -0.335  0.000
CHIEFS     12  5  0 405 329  0.070  8.566    5  1.048    5  0.281    3  0.175    3 0.5772  1.128 -0.021  0.371  0.000
RAIDERS    12  5  0 430 412  0.080  8.890    6  1.037    3  0.296   18  0.002    4 0.5757  1.430  0.210 -0.207  0.000
PACKERS    12  7  0 525 476  0.082  9.747    7  0.934    8  0.209    4  0.164    7 0.5544  1.588  0.610 -0.282  0.000
GIANTS     11  6  0 323 322  0.056  8.707    8  0.920    7  0.214   15  0.032    8 0.5503  0.950 -0.374  0.439  0.000
SEAHAWKS   11  6  1 400 334 -0.029  8.408    9  0.862    9  0.163    7  0.098   11 0.5265  1.012 -0.237  0.433  0.000
BRONCOS     9  7  0 333 297  0.123  8.538   10  0.812   10  0.123    9  0.076    9 0.5375  0.963 -0.316  0.468  0.000
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BUCCANEERS  9  7  0 354 369  0.045  8.190   11  0.759   11  0.091   14  0.033   13 0.5142  1.189 -0.086  0.152  0.000
DOLPHINS   10  7  0 375 410 -0.081  8.128   12  0.756   13  0.088   26 -0.123   12 0.5162  1.313 -0.077 -0.168  0.000
TEXANS     10  8  0 322 376  0.020  9.223   13  0.755   12  0.089   24 -0.076   10 0.5307  0.967 -0.463  0.311  0.000
REDSKINS    8  7  1 396 383  0.080  8.360   14  0.736   14  0.073   13  0.034   14 0.5138  1.478  0.314 -0.246  0.000
TITANS      9  7  0 381 378 -0.114  7.206   15  0.678   15  0.022   21 -0.040   15 0.5118  1.402  0.128 -0.209  0.000
LIONS       9  8  0 352 384 -0.045  8.259   16  0.661   16  0.018   25 -0.120   16 0.5057  1.210 -0.212 -0.028  0.000
RAVENS      8  8  0 343 321  0.001  7.797   17  0.623   17 -0.015   12  0.047   18 0.4992  1.148 -0.125  0.218  0.000
VIKINGS     8  8  0 327 307 -0.027  7.666   18  0.612   18 -0.025   19 -0.017   19 0.4961  1.016 -0.347  0.314  0.000
EAGLES      7  9  0 367 331  0.123  8.502   19  0.611   19 -0.033    8  0.086   20 0.4948  1.227  0.015  0.156  0.000
COLTS       8  8  0 411 392 -0.079  7.364   20  0.600   20 -0.045   17  0.024   17 0.4999  1.513  0.356 -0.308  0.000
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAINTS      7  9  0 469 454  0.044  8.141   21  0.572   21 -0.067   16  0.026   21 0.4812  1.720  0.682 -0.630  0.000
CARDINALS   7  8  1 418 362 -0.081  7.195   22  0.531   22 -0.102   10  0.069   23 0.4679  1.414  0.254 -0.117  0.000
BENGALS     6  9  1 325 315  0.023  7.974   23  0.506   23 -0.121   11  0.057   22 0.4762  1.120 -0.149  0.263  0.000
PANTHERS    6 10  0 369 402  0.058  8.358   24  0.490   24 -0.134   20 -0.037   25 0.4601  1.329  0.030 -0.105  0.000
BILLS       7  9  0 399 378 -0.107  7.177   25  0.489   25 -0.137   22 -0.059   24 0.4663  1.451  0.180 -0.298  0.000
CHARGERS    5 11  0 410 423  0.019  8.038   26  0.384   26 -0.226   23 -0.064   26 0.4517  1.509  0.260 -0.389  0.000
JETS        5 11  0 275 409 -0.106  7.889   27  0.335   27 -0.268   29 -0.292   27 0.4346  1.158 -0.450 -0.133  0.000
RAMS        4 12  0 224 394 -0.132  7.745   28  0.242   28 -0.350   32 -0.394   28 0.4055  0.947 -0.804  0.015  0.000
JAGUARS     3 13  0 318 400 -0.042  7.823   29  0.169   29 -0.413   27 -0.140   29 0.4049  1.278 -0.143 -0.137  0.000
BEARS       3 13  0 279 399 -0.070  7.861   30  0.147   30 -0.421   28 -0.238   30 0.4006  1.158 -0.396 -0.079  0.000
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
49ERS       2 14  0 309 480 -0.134  7.737   31  0.022   31 -0.526   31 -0.314   32 0.3644  1.402 -0.145 -0.484  0.000
BROWNS      1 15  0 264 452  0.015  8.580   32  0.000   32 -0.544   30 -0.307   31 0.3683  1.232 -0.371 -0.244  0.000

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHIEFS     12  5  0 405 329  0.070  8.566    5  1.048    5  0.281    3  0.175    3 0.5772  1.128 -0.021  0.371  0.000
RAIDERS    12  5  0 430 412  0.080  8.890    6  1.037    3  0.296   18  0.002    4 0.5757  1.430  0.210 -0.207  0.000
BRONCOS     9  7  0 333 297  0.123  8.538   10  0.812   10  0.123    9  0.076    9 0.5375  0.963 -0.316  0.468  0.000
CHARGERS    5 11  0 410 423  0.019  8.038   26  0.384   26 -0.226   23 -0.064   26 0.4517  1.509  0.260 -0.389  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TEXANS     10  8  0 322 376  0.020  9.223   13  0.755   12  0.089   24 -0.076   10 0.5307  0.967 -0.463  0.311  0.000
TITANS      9  7  0 381 378 -0.114  7.206   15  0.678   15  0.022   21 -0.040   15 0.5118  1.402  0.128 -0.209  0.000
COLTS       8  8  0 411 392 -0.079  7.364   20  0.600   20 -0.045   17  0.024   17 0.4999  1.513  0.356 -0.308  0.000
JAGUARS     3 13  0 318 400 -0.042  7.823   29  0.169   29 -0.413   27 -0.140   29 0.4049  1.278 -0.143 -0.137  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
STEELERS   13  6  0 464 391  0.104  9.830    3  1.063    4  0.291    6  0.147    5 0.5708  1.306  0.183  0.111  0.000
RAVENS      8  8  0 343 321  0.001  7.797   17  0.623   17 -0.015   12  0.047   18 0.4992  1.148 -0.125  0.218  0.000
BENGALS     6  9  1 325 315  0.023  7.974   23  0.506   23 -0.121   11  0.057   22 0.4762  1.120 -0.149  0.263  0.000
BROWNS      1 15  0 264 452  0.015  8.580   32  0.000   32 -0.544   30 -0.307   31 0.3683  1.232 -0.371 -0.244  0.000

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PATRIOTS   17  2  0 545 311 -0.014  8.405    1  1.327    1  0.511    1  0.411    1 0.6170  1.270  0.398  0.423  0.000
DOLPHINS   10  7  0 375 410 -0.081  8.128   12  0.756   13  0.088   26 -0.123   12 0.5162  1.313 -0.077 -0.168  0.000
BILLS       7  9  0 399 378 -0.107  7.177   25  0.489   25 -0.137   22 -0.059   24 0.4663  1.451  0.180 -0.298  0.000
JETS        5 11  0 275 409 -0.106  7.889   27  0.335   27 -0.268   29 -0.292   27 0.4346  1.158 -0.450 -0.133  0.000

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SEAHAWKS   11  6  1 400 334 -0.029  8.408    9  0.862    9  0.163    7  0.098   11 0.5265  1.012 -0.237  0.433  0.000
CARDINALS   7  8  1 418 362 -0.081  7.195   22  0.531   22 -0.102   10  0.069   23 0.4679  1.414  0.254 -0.117  0.000
RAMS        4 12  0 224 394 -0.132  7.745   28  0.242   28 -0.350   32 -0.394   28 0.4055  0.947 -0.804  0.015  0.000
49ERS       2 14  0 309 480 -0.134  7.737   31  0.022   31 -0.526   31 -0.314   32 0.3644  1.402 -0.145 -0.484  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
FALCONS    13  6  0 648 481  0.109  9.716    4  1.051    6  0.280    2  0.330    6 0.5609  1.725  0.994 -0.335  0.000
BUCCANEERS  9  7  0 354 369  0.045  8.190   11  0.759   11  0.091   14  0.033   13 0.5142  1.189 -0.086  0.152  0.000
SAINTS      7  9  0 469 454  0.044  8.141   21  0.572   21 -0.067   16  0.026   21 0.4812  1.720  0.682 -0.630  0.000
PANTHERS    6 10  0 369 402  0.058  8.358   24  0.490   24 -0.134   20 -0.037   25 0.4601  1.329  0.030 -0.105  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PACKERS    12  7  0 525 476  0.082  9.747    7  0.934    8  0.209    4  0.164    7 0.5544  1.588  0.610 -0.282  0.000
LIONS       9  8  0 352 384 -0.045  8.259   16  0.661   16  0.018   25 -0.120   16 0.5057  1.210 -0.212 -0.028  0.000
VIKINGS     8  8  0 327 307 -0.027  7.666   18  0.612   18 -0.025   19 -0.017   19 0.4961  1.016 -0.347  0.314  0.000
BEARS       3 13  0 279 399 -0.070  7.861   30  0.147   30 -0.421   28 -0.238   30 0.4006  1.158 -0.396 -0.079  0.000

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
COWBOYS    13  4  0 452 340  0.037  8.296    2  1.135    2  0.343    5  0.155    2 0.5823  1.346  0.245  0.064  0.000
GIANTS     11  6  0 323 322  0.056  8.707    8  0.920    7  0.214   15  0.032    8 0.5503  0.950 -0.374  0.439  0.000
REDSKINS    8  7  1 396 383  0.080  8.360   14  0.736   14  0.073   13  0.034   14 0.5138  1.478  0.314 -0.246  0.000
EAGLES      7  9  0 367 331  0.123  8.502   19  0.611   19 -0.033    8  0.086   20 0.4948  1.227  0.015  0.156  0.000

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC EAST   39 26  1 0.598    1  0.237
AFC WEST   38 28  0 0.576    2  0.187
NFC SOUTH  35 32  0 0.522    3  0.154
AFC EAST   39 29  0 0.574    4 -0.051
AFC NORTH  28 38  1 0.425    5 -0.053
NFC NORTH  32 36  0 0.471    6 -0.097
AFC SOUTH  30 36  0 0.455    7 -0.179
NFC WEST   24 40  2 0.379    8 -0.302

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.203 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.025 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Feb  6 05:30:19 2017
games through: Sun Feb  5 2017

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