Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM       W L T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RAMS       9 1 0 335 231  0.131  4.915    1  0.910    1  0.447    2  0.316    3 0.6170  1.614  0.736 -0.105  0.000
CHIEFS     9 1 0 353 240  0.099  4.825    2  0.902    2  0.439    3  0.315    2 0.6248  1.718  0.903 -0.272  0.000
SAINTS     8 1 0 330 232  0.195  4.753    3  0.889    3  0.425    1  0.375    1 0.6508  1.755  1.024 -0.274  0.000
STEELERS   6 2 1 279 209  0.249  5.040    4  0.751    4  0.285    4  0.314    4 0.6002  1.505  0.568  0.061  0.000
CHARGERS   7 2 0 240 186 -0.018  4.064    5  0.725    5  0.256    7  0.165    5 0.5752  1.347  0.189  0.140  0.000
PATRIOTS   7 3 0 280 236 -0.013  4.745    6  0.672    6  0.200    9  0.117    8 0.5602  1.483  0.337 -0.104  0.000
PANTHERS   6 3 0 241 232  0.090  4.708    7  0.665    7  0.196   11  0.072    6 0.5631  1.528  0.360 -0.216  0.000
REDSKINS   6 3 0 176 175 -0.035  4.285    8  0.627    8  0.147   15  0.026    9 0.5485  0.931 -0.467  0.519  0.000
BENGALS    5 4 0 235 288  0.174  5.266    9  0.613    9  0.138   22 -0.115    7 0.5609  1.515  0.153 -0.383  0.000
TEXANS     6 3 0 216 184 -0.128  3.925   10  0.593   10  0.111   12  0.051   10 0.5315  1.288 -0.005  0.107  0.000
TEAM       W L T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BEARS      6 3 0 269 175 -0.199  3.438   11  0.554   11  0.069    6  0.196   13 0.5190  1.391  0.283  0.109  0.000
VIKINGS    5 3 1 221 204 -0.118  4.015   12  0.544   12  0.061   16  0.024   14 0.5103  1.326  0.020  0.028  0.000
RAVENS     4 5 0 213 160  0.273  5.074   13  0.502   15  0.023    5  0.253   11 0.5264  1.052 -0.102  0.607  0.000
TITANS     5 4 0 168 151  0.009  4.463   14  0.492   13  0.047   10  0.084   12 0.5213  0.981 -0.352  0.521  0.000
SEAHAWKS   5 5 0 246 216  0.123  5.221   15  0.475   14  0.030    8  0.154   16 0.4999  1.285  0.094  0.214  0.000
FALCONS    4 5 0 244 254  0.072  4.738   16  0.417   16 -0.029   19  0.014   15 0.5092  1.524  0.295 -0.267  0.000
COWBOYS    4 5 0 181 171  0.001  4.447   17  0.392   17 -0.056   14  0.029   21 0.4747  1.106 -0.261  0.319  0.000
PACKERS    4 5 1 247 243  0.009  4.939   18  0.391   18 -0.056   13  0.049   18 0.4824  1.403  0.153 -0.055  0.000
DOLPHINS   5 5 0 199 256 -0.254  4.345   19  0.350   19 -0.069   29 -0.266   20 0.4777  1.239 -0.386 -0.146  0.000
EAGLES     4 5 0 198 183 -0.075  4.148   20  0.334   21 -0.085   18  0.015   22 0.4661  1.132 -0.241  0.272  0.000
TEAM       W L T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BUCCANEERS 3 6 0 232 291  0.163  5.262   21  0.333   20 -0.078   25 -0.145   17 0.4915  1.605  0.261 -0.552  0.000
BROWNS     3 6 1 218 263  0.123  5.622   22  0.318   22 -0.091   21 -0.053   19 0.4794  1.216 -0.203  0.097  0.000
COLTS      4 5 0 260 239 -0.225  3.628   23  0.273   24 -0.142   20 -0.009   23 0.4651  1.670  0.502 -0.519  0.000
BRONCOS    3 6 0 205 213  0.086  4.811   24  0.270   23 -0.141   17  0.016   24 0.4530  1.273 -0.059  0.091  0.000
JAGUARS    3 6 0 160 199 -0.047  4.497   25  0.246   26 -0.167   27 -0.162   26 0.4372  1.037 -0.535  0.210  0.000
BILLS      3 7 0 137 251  0.047  5.592   26  0.245   25 -0.163   30 -0.310   25 0.4481  0.956 -0.775  0.156  0.000
LIONS      3 6 0 202 244 -0.071  4.397   27  0.231   27 -0.182   23 -0.134   27 0.4264  1.417 -0.010 -0.259  0.000
CARDINALS  2 7 0 124 225  0.023  5.015   28  0.176   28 -0.237   28 -0.265   29 0.4086  0.936 -0.752  0.223  0.000
GIANTS     2 7 0 177 228  0.019  4.740   29  0.160   29 -0.253   24 -0.137   28 0.4175  1.270 -0.217 -0.058  0.000
JETS       3 7 0 208 254 -0.293  4.115   30  0.105   30 -0.312   31 -0.342   30 0.4026  1.345 -0.320 -0.364  0.000
TEAM       W L T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
49ERS      2 8 0 230 266 -0.178  4.571   31  0.033   32 -0.386   26 -0.154   31 0.3839  1.407 -0.044 -0.264  0.000
RAIDERS    1 8 0 147 272 -0.091  4.701   32  0.000   31 -0.384   32 -0.464   32 0.3700  1.220 -0.609 -0.318  0.000

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM       W L T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHIEFS     9 1 0 353 240  0.099  4.825    2  0.902    2  0.439    3  0.315    2 0.6248  1.718  0.903 -0.272  0.000
CHARGERS   7 2 0 240 186 -0.018  4.064    5  0.725    5  0.256    7  0.165    5 0.5752  1.347  0.189  0.140  0.000
BRONCOS    3 6 0 205 213  0.086  4.811   24  0.270   23 -0.141   17  0.016   24 0.4530  1.273 -0.059  0.091  0.000
RAIDERS    1 8 0 147 272 -0.091  4.701   32  0.000   31 -0.384   32 -0.464   32 0.3700  1.220 -0.609 -0.318  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM       W L T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TEXANS     6 3 0 216 184 -0.128  3.925   10  0.593   10  0.111   12  0.051   10 0.5315  1.288 -0.005  0.107  0.000
TITANS     5 4 0 168 151  0.009  4.463   14  0.492   13  0.047   10  0.084   12 0.5213  0.981 -0.352  0.521  0.000
COLTS      4 5 0 260 239 -0.225  3.628   23  0.273   24 -0.142   20 -0.009   23 0.4651  1.670  0.502 -0.519  0.000
JAGUARS    3 6 0 160 199 -0.047  4.497   25  0.246   26 -0.167   27 -0.162   26 0.4372  1.037 -0.535  0.210  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM       W L T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
STEELERS   6 2 1 279 209  0.249  5.040    4  0.751    4  0.285    4  0.314    4 0.6002  1.505  0.568  0.061  0.000
BENGALS    5 4 0 235 288  0.174  5.266    9  0.613    9  0.138   22 -0.115    7 0.5609  1.515  0.153 -0.383  0.000
RAVENS     4 5 0 213 160  0.273  5.074   13  0.502   15  0.023    5  0.253   11 0.5264  1.052 -0.102  0.607  0.000
BROWNS     3 6 1 218 263  0.123  5.622   22  0.318   22 -0.091   21 -0.053   19 0.4794  1.216 -0.203  0.097  0.000

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM       W L T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PATRIOTS   7 3 0 280 236 -0.013  4.745    6  0.672    6  0.200    9  0.117    8 0.5602  1.483  0.337 -0.104  0.000
DOLPHINS   5 5 0 199 256 -0.254  4.345   19  0.350   19 -0.069   29 -0.266   20 0.4777  1.239 -0.386 -0.146  0.000
BILLS      3 7 0 137 251  0.047  5.592   26  0.245   25 -0.163   30 -0.310   25 0.4481  0.956 -0.775  0.156  0.000
JETS       3 7 0 208 254 -0.293  4.115   30  0.105   30 -0.312   31 -0.342   30 0.4026  1.345 -0.320 -0.364  0.000

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM       W L T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RAMS       9 1 0 335 231  0.131  4.915    1  0.910    1  0.447    2  0.316    3 0.6170  1.614  0.736 -0.105  0.000
SEAHAWKS   5 5 0 246 216  0.123  5.221   15  0.475   14  0.030    8  0.154   16 0.4999  1.285  0.094  0.214  0.000
CARDINALS  2 7 0 124 225  0.023  5.015   28  0.176   28 -0.237   28 -0.265   29 0.4086  0.936 -0.752  0.223  0.000
49ERS      2 8 0 230 266 -0.178  4.571   31  0.033   32 -0.386   26 -0.154   31 0.3839  1.407 -0.044 -0.264  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM       W L T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAINTS     8 1 0 330 232  0.195  4.753    3  0.889    3  0.425    1  0.375    1 0.6508  1.755  1.024 -0.274  0.000
PANTHERS   6 3 0 241 232  0.090  4.708    7  0.665    7  0.196   11  0.072    6 0.5631  1.528  0.360 -0.216  0.000
FALCONS    4 5 0 244 254  0.072  4.738   16  0.417   16 -0.029   19  0.014   15 0.5092  1.524  0.295 -0.267  0.000
BUCCANEERS 3 6 0 232 291  0.163  5.262   21  0.333   20 -0.078   25 -0.145   17 0.4915  1.605  0.261 -0.552  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM       W L T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BEARS      6 3 0 269 175 -0.199  3.438   11  0.554   11  0.069    6  0.196   13 0.5190  1.391  0.283  0.109  0.000
VIKINGS    5 3 1 221 204 -0.118  4.015   12  0.544   12  0.061   16  0.024   14 0.5103  1.326  0.020  0.028  0.000
PACKERS    4 5 1 247 243  0.009  4.939   18  0.391   18 -0.056   13  0.049   18 0.4824  1.403  0.153 -0.055  0.000
LIONS      3 6 0 202 244 -0.071  4.397   27  0.231   27 -0.182   23 -0.134   27 0.4264  1.417 -0.010 -0.259  0.000

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM       W L T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
REDSKINS   6 3 0 176 175 -0.035  4.285    8  0.627    8  0.147   15  0.026    9 0.5485  0.931 -0.467  0.519  0.000
COWBOYS    4 5 0 181 171  0.001  4.447   17  0.392   17 -0.056   14  0.029   21 0.4747  1.106 -0.261  0.319  0.000
EAGLES     4 5 0 198 183 -0.075  4.148   20  0.334   21 -0.085   18  0.015   22 0.4661  1.132 -0.241  0.272  0.000
GIANTS     2 7 0 177 228  0.019  4.740   29  0.160   29 -0.253   24 -0.137   28 0.4175  1.270 -0.217 -0.058  0.000

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC NORTH  18 17  2 0.514    1  0.281
NFC SOUTH  21 15  0 0.583    2  0.180
NFC NORTH  18 17  2 0.514    3  0.053
AFC WEST   20 17  0 0.541    4  0.045
NFC WEST   18 21  0 0.462    5  0.008
NFC EAST   16 20  0 0.444    6 -0.044
AFC SOUTH  18 18  0 0.500    7 -0.054
AFC EAST   18 22  0 0.450    8 -0.446

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.142 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.028 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Nov 16 05:30:40 2018
games through: Thu Nov 15 2018

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