Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
EAGLES     16  3 551 345  0.127  9.788    1  1.694    1  0.648    1  0.502    1 0.6170  1.404  0.734  0.270  0.000
VIKINGS    14  4 418 314  0.184  9.961    2  1.595    2  0.564    3  0.337    2 0.6064  1.071  0.132  0.542  0.000
PATRIOTS   15  4 550 371  0.027  9.189    3  1.516    3  0.486    2  0.428    3 0.5961  1.429  0.695  0.161  0.000
STEELERS   13  4 448 353 -0.013  8.180    4  1.425    4  0.419    9  0.177    7 0.5613  1.402  0.406 -0.051  0.000
SAINTS     12  6 503 381  0.199 10.061    5  1.377    5  0.375    4  0.336    4 0.5880  1.466  0.658  0.015  0.000
PANTHERS   11  6 389 358  0.204  9.755    6  1.308    6  0.358   11  0.147    5 0.5814  1.242  0.157  0.136  0.000
FALCONS    11  7 389 343  0.226 10.452    7  1.249    7  0.296    6  0.265    6 0.5722  1.096  0.090  0.439  0.000
RAMS       11  6 491 355  0.074  8.605    8  1.201    8  0.248    7  0.241    8 0.5507  1.490  0.599 -0.116  0.000
JAGUARS    12  7 492 337 -0.057  8.607    9  1.092    9  0.147    5  0.278   11 0.5208  1.218  0.257  0.299  0.000
LIONS       9  7 410 376  0.035  8.182   10  1.046   10  0.108   13  0.085    9 0.5246  1.541  0.519 -0.349  0.000
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
COWBOYS     9  7 354 332  0.016  8.127   11  1.038   11  0.099   12  0.091   10 0.5218  1.229  0.084  0.098  0.000
SEAHAWKS    9  7 366 332 -0.016  7.893   12  1.027   12  0.080   14  0.061   12 0.5159  1.250  0.082  0.040  0.000
CHIEFS     10  7 436 361 -0.091  7.818   13  1.021   13  0.073   15  0.043   13 0.5155  1.403  0.274 -0.188  0.000
TITANS     10  8 370 412 -0.126  8.513   14  0.963   15  0.028   21 -0.117   17 0.4940  1.234 -0.117 -0.117  0.000
CHARGERS    9  7 355 272 -0.065  7.365   15  0.956   16  0.021    8  0.203   15 0.5020  1.047 -0.031  0.437  0.000
BILLS       9  8 305 369 -0.059  8.592   16  0.941   14  0.034   22 -0.193   14 0.5109  1.054 -0.418  0.032  0.000
CARDINALS   8  8 295 361 -0.034  8.184   17  0.896   17 -0.009   20 -0.091   18 0.4931  1.055 -0.315  0.133  0.000
RAVENS      9  7 395 303 -0.135  6.886   18  0.884   18 -0.024   10  0.152   20 0.4894  1.254  0.178  0.127  0.000
PACKERS     7  9 320 384  0.092  8.998   19  0.834   19 -0.036   24 -0.220   16 0.4952  1.247 -0.204 -0.237  0.000
REDSKINS    7  9 342 388  0.074  8.714   20  0.817   20 -0.054   19 -0.086   19 0.4918  1.328  0.039 -0.211  0.000
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BENGALS     7  9 290 349 -0.172  7.504   21  0.686   21 -0.185   23 -0.218   26 0.4531  1.099 -0.389 -0.047  0.000
DOLPHINS    6 10 281 393 -0.034  8.445   22  0.682   22 -0.187   27 -0.266   21 0.4704  1.172 -0.346 -0.185  0.000
49ERS       6 10 331 383 -0.026  8.209   23  0.666   23 -0.203   16 -0.048   24 0.4588  1.298  0.037 -0.132  0.000
RAIDERS     6 10 301 373 -0.070  8.037   24  0.633   24 -0.235   25 -0.240   25 0.4540  1.193 -0.293 -0.188  0.000
BEARS       5 11 264 320  0.103  8.970   25  0.624   25 -0.241   18 -0.057   23 0.4602  0.866 -0.496  0.382  0.000
BUCCANEERS  5 11 335 382  0.077  8.764   26  0.610   26 -0.262   17 -0.048   22 0.4680  1.314  0.059 -0.155  0.000
JETS        5 11 298 382 -0.047  8.218   27  0.539   27 -0.318   26 -0.255   27 0.4441  1.209 -0.288 -0.222  0.000
BRONCOS     5 11 289 382 -0.149  7.628   28  0.476   28 -0.383   28 -0.289   28 0.4278  1.198 -0.335 -0.242  0.000
TEXANS      4 12 338 436 -0.127  7.954   29  0.381   29 -0.477   31 -0.406   30 0.4023  1.418 -0.155 -0.658  0.000
GIANTS      3 13 246 388  0.024  8.708   30  0.368   30 -0.486   29 -0.351   29 0.4064  1.006 -0.633 -0.069  0.000
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
COLTS       4 12 263 404 -0.219  7.479   31  0.340   31 -0.517   30 -0.369   31 0.3927  1.104 -0.535 -0.204  0.000
BROWNS      0 16 234 410 -0.131  8.048   32  0.000   32 -0.916   32 -0.460   32 0.3236  1.074 -0.663 -0.258  0.000

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHIEFS     10  7 436 361 -0.091  7.818   13  1.021   13  0.073   15  0.043   13 0.5155  1.403  0.274 -0.188  0.000
CHARGERS    9  7 355 272 -0.065  7.365   15  0.956   16  0.021    8  0.203   15 0.5020  1.047 -0.031  0.437  0.000
RAIDERS     6 10 301 373 -0.070  8.037   24  0.633   24 -0.235   25 -0.240   25 0.4540  1.193 -0.293 -0.188  0.000
BRONCOS     5 11 289 382 -0.149  7.628   28  0.476   28 -0.383   28 -0.289   28 0.4278  1.198 -0.335 -0.242  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
JAGUARS    12  7 492 337 -0.057  8.607    9  1.092    9  0.147    5  0.278   11 0.5208  1.218  0.257  0.299  0.000
TITANS     10  8 370 412 -0.126  8.513   14  0.963   15  0.028   21 -0.117   17 0.4940  1.234 -0.117 -0.117  0.000
TEXANS      4 12 338 436 -0.127  7.954   29  0.381   29 -0.477   31 -0.406   30 0.4023  1.418 -0.155 -0.658  0.000
COLTS       4 12 263 404 -0.219  7.479   31  0.340   31 -0.517   30 -0.369   31 0.3927  1.104 -0.535 -0.204  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
STEELERS   13  4 448 353 -0.013  8.180    4  1.425    4  0.419    9  0.177    7 0.5613  1.402  0.406 -0.051  0.000
RAVENS      9  7 395 303 -0.135  6.886   18  0.884   18 -0.024   10  0.152   20 0.4894  1.254  0.178  0.127  0.000
BENGALS     7  9 290 349 -0.172  7.504   21  0.686   21 -0.185   23 -0.218   26 0.4531  1.099 -0.389 -0.047  0.000
BROWNS      0 16 234 410 -0.131  8.048   32  0.000   32 -0.916   32 -0.460   32 0.3236  1.074 -0.663 -0.258  0.000

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PATRIOTS   15  4 550 371  0.027  9.189    3  1.516    3  0.486    2  0.428    3 0.5961  1.429  0.695  0.161  0.000
BILLS       9  8 305 369 -0.059  8.592   16  0.941   14  0.034   22 -0.193   14 0.5109  1.054 -0.418  0.032  0.000
DOLPHINS    6 10 281 393 -0.034  8.445   22  0.682   22 -0.187   27 -0.266   21 0.4704  1.172 -0.346 -0.185  0.000
JETS        5 11 298 382 -0.047  8.218   27  0.539   27 -0.318   26 -0.255   27 0.4441  1.209 -0.288 -0.222  0.000

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RAMS       11  6 491 355  0.074  8.605    8  1.201    8  0.248    7  0.241    8 0.5507  1.490  0.599 -0.116  0.000
SEAHAWKS    9  7 366 332 -0.016  7.893   12  1.027   12  0.080   14  0.061   12 0.5159  1.250  0.082  0.040  0.000
CARDINALS   8  8 295 361 -0.034  8.184   17  0.896   17 -0.009   20 -0.091   18 0.4931  1.055 -0.315  0.133  0.000
49ERS       6 10 331 383 -0.026  8.209   23  0.666   23 -0.203   16 -0.048   24 0.4588  1.298  0.037 -0.132  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAINTS     12  6 503 381  0.199 10.061    5  1.377    5  0.375    4  0.336    4 0.5880  1.466  0.658  0.015  0.000
PANTHERS   11  6 389 358  0.204  9.755    6  1.308    6  0.358   11  0.147    5 0.5814  1.242  0.157  0.136  0.000
FALCONS    11  7 389 343  0.226 10.452    7  1.249    7  0.296    6  0.265    6 0.5722  1.096  0.090  0.439  0.000
BUCCANEERS  5 11 335 382  0.077  8.764   26  0.610   26 -0.262   17 -0.048   22 0.4680  1.314  0.059 -0.155  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
VIKINGS    14  4 418 314  0.184  9.961    2  1.595    2  0.564    3  0.337    2 0.6064  1.071  0.132  0.542  0.000
LIONS       9  7 410 376  0.035  8.182   10  1.046   10  0.108   13  0.085    9 0.5246  1.541  0.519 -0.349  0.000
PACKERS     7  9 320 384  0.092  8.998   19  0.834   19 -0.036   24 -0.220   16 0.4952  1.247 -0.204 -0.237  0.000
BEARS       5 11 264 320  0.103  8.970   25  0.624   25 -0.241   18 -0.057   23 0.4602  0.866 -0.496  0.382  0.000

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
EAGLES     16  3 551 345  0.127  9.788    1  1.694    1  0.648    1  0.502    1 0.6170  1.404  0.734  0.270  0.000
COWBOYS     9  7 354 332  0.016  8.127   11  1.038   11  0.099   12  0.091   10 0.5218  1.229  0.084  0.098  0.000
REDSKINS    7  9 342 388  0.074  8.714   20  0.817   20 -0.054   19 -0.086   19 0.4918  1.328  0.039 -0.211  0.000
GIANTS      3 13 246 388  0.024  8.708   30  0.368   30 -0.486   29 -0.351   29 0.4064  1.006 -0.633 -0.069  0.000

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC SOUTH  39 30 0.565    1  0.314
NFC NORTH  35 31 0.530    2  0.098
NFC EAST   35 32 0.522    3  0.057
NFC WEST   34 31 0.523    4  0.033
AFC WEST   30 35 0.462    5 -0.104
AFC EAST   35 33 0.515    6 -0.156
AFC NORTH  29 36 0.446    7 -0.159
AFC SOUTH  30 39 0.435    8 -0.274

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.170 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.022 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Feb  5 05:30:28 2018
games through: Sun Feb  4 2018

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