Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     16  3  0 546 409 -0.027  9.090    1  0.404    1  0.390    6  0.187    4 0.5922    2  1.495    1  0.545   23 -0.170
EAGLES     16  3  0 546 358 -0.031  8.988    2  0.396    2  0.381    1  0.300    1 0.6132    6  1.407    2  0.529   12  0.072
BENGALS    14  5  0 489 372  0.177 10.676    3  0.360    3  0.349    2  0.291    3 0.5976   10  1.343    4  0.430   10  0.151
BILLS      14  4  0 499 344  0.087  9.406    4  0.353    4  0.344    4  0.214    2 0.6007    9  1.346    5  0.357   13  0.072
49ERS      15  5  0 517 343 -0.070  9.213    5  0.264    5  0.258    3  0.256    7 0.5563   22  1.144   12  0.132    2  0.379
VIKINGS    13  5  0 448 458 -0.037  8.991    6  0.253    6  0.250   22 -0.077    5 0.5757    3  1.483    8  0.262   32 -0.416
COWBOYS    13  6  0 510 375  0.049  9.595    7  0.245    7  0.223    5  0.194    6 0.5719    8  1.352    6  0.346   16  0.043
RAVENS     10  8  0 367 339  0.132  9.995    8  0.126    8  0.112    9  0.057    9 0.5324   24  1.099   21 -0.122    5  0.236
GIANTS     10  8  1 403 433  0.042 10.082    9  0.086    9  0.076   18 -0.032    8 0.5382   18  1.218   18 -0.060   17 -0.003
STEELERS    9  8  0 308 346  0.091  9.366   10  0.081   10  0.073   13  0.019   12 0.5197   29  1.014   24 -0.261    3  0.298
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DOLPHINS    9  9  0 428 433  0.160 10.228   11  0.076   11  0.061   10  0.057   11 0.5234    5  1.436    7  0.328   26 -0.215
LIONS       9  8  0 453 427  0.039  8.892   12  0.049   12  0.039    8  0.079   10 0.5252    1  1.522    3  0.476   27 -0.318
CHARGERS   10  8  0 421 415 -0.098  8.493   13  0.024   13  0.014   14  0.013   17 0.4923   11  1.343   11  0.152   22 -0.126
COMMANDERS  8  8  1 321 343  0.011  8.810   14  0.013   14  0.005   16 -0.011   13 0.5137   28  1.020   25 -0.285    4  0.262
JAGUARS    10  9  0 455 407 -0.050  9.140   15 -0.003   15 -0.015    7  0.079   15 0.5036   12  1.329   10  0.199   19 -0.040
PATRIOTS    8  9  0 364 347  0.058  8.949   16 -0.016   16 -0.025   11  0.053   16 0.4995   21  1.147   19 -0.067    9  0.172
SEAHAWKS    9  9  0 430 442 -0.065  8.779   17 -0.027   17 -0.037   20 -0.044   20 0.4800    4  1.451    9  0.248   30 -0.336
PACKERS     8  9  0 370 371 -0.005  8.678   18 -0.034   18 -0.043   12  0.019   14 0.5040   19  1.212   16 -0.018   15  0.055
JETS        7 10  0 296 316  0.118  9.550   19 -0.040   19 -0.052   21 -0.066   18 0.4892   32  0.866   32 -0.513    1  0.380
BUCCANEERS  8 10  0 327 389  0.003  9.368   20 -0.050   20 -0.063   26 -0.145   21 0.4772   27  1.058   27 -0.373   11  0.083
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BROWNS      7 10  0 361 381  0.070  9.171   21 -0.057   21 -0.078   15  0.001   19 0.4812   16  1.307   14  0.091   20 -0.089
SAINTS      7 10  0 330 345 -0.048  8.429   22 -0.099   22 -0.122   17 -0.019   23 0.4620   25  1.084   23 -0.216    8  0.178
TITANS      7 10  0 298 359 -0.046  8.623   23 -0.102   23 -0.124   25 -0.118   22 0.4725   30  0.994   30 -0.421    6  0.185
PANTHERS    7 10  0 347 374 -0.077  8.253   24 -0.119   24 -0.141   19 -0.041   24 0.4544   17  1.231   17 -0.053   18 -0.029
FALCONS     7 10  0 365 386 -0.092  8.169   25 -0.122   25 -0.143   23 -0.085   25 0.4517   13  1.324   15  0.029   25 -0.198
RAIDERS     6 11  0 395 418 -0.112  8.109   26 -0.206   26 -0.223   24 -0.100   26 0.4304    7  1.406   13  0.127   29 -0.328
RAMS        5 12  0 307 384 -0.048  8.666   27 -0.243   27 -0.258   27 -0.153   28 0.4198   26  1.067   26 -0.371   14  0.065
BRONCOS     5 12  0 287 359 -0.112  8.196   28 -0.267   28 -0.280   28 -0.157   30 0.4125   31  0.964   31 -0.494    7  0.181
COLTS       4 12  1 289 427 -0.096  8.521   29 -0.296   29 -0.303   32 -0.304   27 0.4229   20  1.156   29 -0.411   24 -0.196
CARDINALS   4 13  0 340 449 -0.058  8.606   30 -0.320   30 -0.326   29 -0.216   31 0.4029   14  1.318   20 -0.112   28 -0.320
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BEARS       3 14  0 326 463  0.036  9.305   31 -0.342   31 -0.347   30 -0.250   29 0.4179   15  1.307   22 -0.160   31 -0.340
TEXANS      3 13  1 289 420 -0.118  8.335   32 -0.387   32 -0.386   31 -0.256   32 0.3963   23  1.135   28 -0.390   21 -0.122

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     16  3  0 546 409 -0.027  9.090    1  0.404    1  0.390    6  0.187    4 0.5922    2  1.495    1  0.545   23 -0.170
CHARGERS   10  8  0 421 415 -0.098  8.493   13  0.024   13  0.014   14  0.013   17 0.4923   11  1.343   11  0.152   22 -0.126
RAIDERS     6 11  0 395 418 -0.112  8.109   26 -0.206   26 -0.223   24 -0.100   26 0.4304    7  1.406   13  0.127   29 -0.328
BRONCOS     5 12  0 287 359 -0.112  8.196   28 -0.267   28 -0.280   28 -0.157   30 0.4125   31  0.964   31 -0.494    7  0.181

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAGUARS    10  9  0 455 407 -0.050  9.140   15 -0.003   15 -0.015    7  0.079   15 0.5036   12  1.329   10  0.199   19 -0.040
TITANS      7 10  0 298 359 -0.046  8.623   23 -0.102   23 -0.124   25 -0.118   22 0.4725   30  0.994   30 -0.421    6  0.185
COLTS       4 12  1 289 427 -0.096  8.521   29 -0.296   29 -0.303   32 -0.304   27 0.4229   20  1.156   29 -0.411   24 -0.196
TEXANS      3 13  1 289 420 -0.118  8.335   32 -0.387   32 -0.386   31 -0.256   32 0.3963   23  1.135   28 -0.390   21 -0.122

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BENGALS    14  5  0 489 372  0.177 10.676    3  0.360    3  0.349    2  0.291    3 0.5976   10  1.343    4  0.430   10  0.151
RAVENS     10  8  0 367 339  0.132  9.995    8  0.126    8  0.112    9  0.057    9 0.5324   24  1.099   21 -0.122    5  0.236
STEELERS    9  8  0 308 346  0.091  9.366   10  0.081   10  0.073   13  0.019   12 0.5197   29  1.014   24 -0.261    3  0.298
BROWNS      7 10  0 361 381  0.070  9.171   21 -0.057   21 -0.078   15  0.001   19 0.4812   16  1.307   14  0.091   20 -0.089

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      14  4  0 499 344  0.087  9.406    4  0.353    4  0.344    4  0.214    2 0.6007    9  1.346    5  0.357   13  0.072
DOLPHINS    9  9  0 428 433  0.160 10.228   11  0.076   11  0.061   10  0.057   11 0.5234    5  1.436    7  0.328   26 -0.215
PATRIOTS    8  9  0 364 347  0.058  8.949   16 -0.016   16 -0.025   11  0.053   16 0.4995   21  1.147   19 -0.067    9  0.172
JETS        7 10  0 296 316  0.118  9.550   19 -0.040   19 -0.052   21 -0.066   18 0.4892   32  0.866   32 -0.513    1  0.380

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
49ERS      15  5  0 517 343 -0.070  9.213    5  0.264    5  0.258    3  0.256    7 0.5563   22  1.144   12  0.132    2  0.379
SEAHAWKS    9  9  0 430 442 -0.065  8.779   17 -0.027   17 -0.037   20 -0.044   20 0.4800    4  1.451    9  0.248   30 -0.336
RAMS        5 12  0 307 384 -0.048  8.666   27 -0.243   27 -0.258   27 -0.153   28 0.4198   26  1.067   26 -0.371   14  0.065
CARDINALS   4 13  0 340 449 -0.058  8.606   30 -0.320   30 -0.326   29 -0.216   31 0.4029   14  1.318   20 -0.112   28 -0.320

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS  8 10  0 327 389  0.003  9.368   20 -0.050   20 -0.063   26 -0.145   21 0.4772   27  1.058   27 -0.373   11  0.083
SAINTS      7 10  0 330 345 -0.048  8.429   22 -0.099   22 -0.122   17 -0.019   23 0.4620   25  1.084   23 -0.216    8  0.178
PANTHERS    7 10  0 347 374 -0.077  8.253   24 -0.119   24 -0.141   19 -0.041   24 0.4544   17  1.231   17 -0.053   18 -0.029
FALCONS     7 10  0 365 386 -0.092  8.169   25 -0.122   25 -0.143   23 -0.085   25 0.4517   13  1.324   15  0.029   25 -0.198

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
VIKINGS    13  5  0 448 458 -0.037  8.991    6  0.253    6  0.250   22 -0.077    5 0.5757    3  1.483    8  0.262   32 -0.416
LIONS       9  8  0 453 427  0.039  8.892   12  0.049   12  0.039    8  0.079   10 0.5252    1  1.522    3  0.476   27 -0.318
PACKERS     8  9  0 370 371 -0.005  8.678   18 -0.034   18 -0.043   12  0.019   14 0.5040   19  1.212   16 -0.018   15  0.055
BEARS       3 14  0 326 463  0.036  9.305   31 -0.342   31 -0.347   30 -0.250   29 0.4179   15  1.307   22 -0.160   31 -0.340

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     16  3  0 546 358 -0.031  8.988    2  0.396    2  0.381    1  0.300    1 0.6132    6  1.407    2  0.529   12  0.072
COWBOYS    13  6  0 510 375  0.049  9.595    7  0.245    7  0.223    5  0.194    6 0.5719    8  1.352    6  0.346   16  0.043
GIANTS     10  8  1 403 433  0.042 10.082    9  0.086    9  0.076   18 -0.032    8 0.5382   18  1.218   18 -0.060   17 -0.003
COMMANDERS  8  8  1 321 343  0.011  8.810   14  0.013   14  0.005   16 -0.011   13 0.5137   28  1.020   25 -0.285    4  0.262

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC EAST   47 25  2 0.649    1  0.258
AFC EAST   38 32  0 0.543    2  0.247
AFC NORTH  40 31  0 0.563    3  0.205
AFC WEST   37 34  0 0.521    4 -0.064
NFC WEST   33 39  0 0.458    5 -0.116
NFC NORTH  33 36  0 0.478    6 -0.127
NFC SOUTH  29 40  0 0.420    7 -0.168
AFC SOUTH  24 44  2 0.357    8 -0.361

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.164 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.022 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Feb  6 05:30:08 2023
games through: Sun Feb  5 2023

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