Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RAMS       15  4  0 586 442  0.087  9.614    1  1.085    1  0.488    7  0.214    1 0.5945  1.583  0.629 -0.201  0.000
SAINTS     14  4  0 547 393  0.095  9.362    2  1.048    2  0.447    3  0.294    2 0.5911  1.459  0.523  0.066  0.000
PATRIOTS   14  5  0 527 387  0.055  9.363    3  0.964    4  0.372    1  0.358    3 0.5841  1.322  0.391  0.324  0.000
CHIEFS     13  5  0 627 471  0.110  9.114    4  0.956    5  0.371    2  0.318    5 0.5736  1.813  1.108 -0.473  0.000
CHARGERS   13  5  0 479 387  0.105  9.264    5  0.951    3  0.381    4  0.230    4 0.5765  1.370  0.330  0.130  0.000
BEARS      12  5  0 436 299 -0.111  7.421    6  0.778    6  0.216    5  0.228    7 0.5430  1.145  0.030  0.425  0.000
COWBOYS    11  7  0 385 376  0.049  9.384    7  0.746    7  0.191   16  0.006    9 0.5393  1.127 -0.214  0.225  0.000
TEXANS     11  6  0 409 337 -0.053  7.979    8  0.738    8  0.172   12  0.108    6 0.5450  1.293  0.102  0.113  0.000
STEELERS    9  6  1 428 360  0.113  8.520    9  0.735    9  0.171    9  0.154   10 0.5343  1.409  0.309 -0.001  0.000
RAVENS     10  7  0 406 310  0.102  8.784   10  0.734   10  0.160    6  0.216   11 0.5325  1.064 -0.080  0.513  0.000
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
EAGLES     10  8  0 397 383  0.093  9.567   11  0.696   11  0.126   10  0.144   12 0.5325  1.185 -0.004  0.291  0.000
COLTS      11  7  0 467 382 -0.037  8.449   12  0.691   12  0.120    8  0.196    8 0.5396  1.390  0.325  0.066  0.000
SEAHAWKS   10  7  0 450 371 -0.007  8.173   13  0.671   13  0.104   11  0.137   14 0.5224  1.386  0.259  0.014  0.000
TITANS      9  7  0 310 303 -0.003  7.982   14  0.640   14  0.075   13  0.034   13 0.5275  1.040 -0.291  0.359  0.000
VIKINGS     8  7  1 360 341 -0.038  7.780   15  0.568   15  0.010   15  0.013   15 0.5028  1.219 -0.091  0.117  0.000
BROWNS      7  8  1 359 392  0.082  8.621   16  0.549   16 -0.005   17 -0.002   16 0.4929  1.252 -0.062  0.058  0.000
PANTHERS    7  9  0 376 382  0.067  8.458   17  0.496   17 -0.053   14  0.016   17 0.4790  1.317  0.043 -0.011  0.000
FALCONS     7  9  0 414 423  0.001  8.075   18  0.453   18 -0.100   18 -0.002   19 0.4723  1.499  0.285 -0.290  0.000
REDSKINS    7  9  0 281 359 -0.061  7.872   19  0.410   19 -0.122   28 -0.246   18 0.4747  1.071 -0.534  0.043  0.000
BENGALS     6 10  0 368 455  0.081  8.842   20  0.403   20 -0.127   23 -0.158   21 0.4677  1.453  0.061 -0.377  0.000
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DOLPHINS    7  9  0 319 433 -0.195  7.325   21  0.343   21 -0.171   30 -0.346   20 0.4691  1.370 -0.245 -0.447  0.000
BRONCOS     6 10  0 329 349  0.006  8.181   22  0.329   22 -0.181   20 -0.082   22 0.4625  1.082 -0.356  0.193  0.000
PACKERS     6  9  1 376 400 -0.120  7.478   23  0.301   23 -0.209   24 -0.168   24 0.4559  1.418  0.001 -0.336  0.000
BILLS       6 10  0 269 374 -0.085  8.010   24  0.277   24 -0.214   27 -0.221   23 0.4624  1.060 -0.523  0.081  0.000
BUCCANEERS  5 11  0 396 464  0.063  8.627   25  0.259   25 -0.229   22 -0.121   28 0.4408  1.559  0.257 -0.499  0.000
LIONS       6 10  0 324 360 -0.087  7.607   26  0.258   26 -0.233   19 -0.056   26 0.4506  1.198 -0.186  0.074  0.000
JAGUARS     5 11  0 245 316 -0.003  8.269   27  0.218   28 -0.267   25 -0.180   25 0.4533  0.810 -0.760  0.400  0.000
GIANTS      5 11  0 369 412  0.007  8.244   28  0.216   27 -0.265   21 -0.097   27 0.4433  1.472  0.151 -0.345  0.000
RAIDERS     4 12  0 290 467 -0.002  8.695   29  0.131   29 -0.342   31 -0.350   29 0.4280  1.253 -0.410 -0.291  0.000
49ERS       4 12  0 342 435 -0.084  7.968   30  0.077   30 -0.412   26 -0.199   31 0.4103  1.341 -0.138 -0.260  0.000
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
JETS        4 12  0 333 441 -0.137  7.631   31  0.063   31 -0.425   29 -0.343   30 0.4168  1.454 -0.121 -0.564  0.000
CARDINALS   3 13  0 225 425 -0.092  8.320   32  0.000   32 -0.482   32 -0.436   32 0.3953  0.977 -0.835 -0.037  0.000

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHIEFS     13  5  0 627 471  0.110  9.114    4  0.956    5  0.371    2  0.318    5 0.5736  1.813  1.108 -0.473  0.000
CHARGERS   13  5  0 479 387  0.105  9.264    5  0.951    3  0.381    4  0.230    4 0.5765  1.370  0.330  0.130  0.000
BRONCOS     6 10  0 329 349  0.006  8.181   22  0.329   22 -0.181   20 -0.082   22 0.4625  1.082 -0.356  0.193  0.000
RAIDERS     4 12  0 290 467 -0.002  8.695   29  0.131   29 -0.342   31 -0.350   29 0.4280  1.253 -0.410 -0.291  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TEXANS     11  6  0 409 337 -0.053  7.979    8  0.738    8  0.172   12  0.108    6 0.5450  1.293  0.102  0.113  0.000
COLTS      11  7  0 467 382 -0.037  8.449   12  0.691   12  0.120    8  0.196    8 0.5396  1.390  0.325  0.066  0.000
TITANS      9  7  0 310 303 -0.003  7.982   14  0.640   14  0.075   13  0.034   13 0.5275  1.040 -0.291  0.359  0.000
JAGUARS     5 11  0 245 316 -0.003  8.269   27  0.218   28 -0.267   25 -0.180   25 0.4533  0.810 -0.760  0.400  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
STEELERS    9  6  1 428 360  0.113  8.520    9  0.735    9  0.171    9  0.154   10 0.5343  1.409  0.309 -0.001  0.000
RAVENS     10  7  0 406 310  0.102  8.784   10  0.734   10  0.160    6  0.216   11 0.5325  1.064 -0.080  0.513  0.000
BROWNS      7  8  1 359 392  0.082  8.621   16  0.549   16 -0.005   17 -0.002   16 0.4929  1.252 -0.062  0.058  0.000
BENGALS     6 10  0 368 455  0.081  8.842   20  0.403   20 -0.127   23 -0.158   21 0.4677  1.453  0.061 -0.377  0.000

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PATRIOTS   14  5  0 527 387  0.055  9.363    3  0.964    4  0.372    1  0.358    3 0.5841  1.322  0.391  0.324  0.000
DOLPHINS    7  9  0 319 433 -0.195  7.325   21  0.343   21 -0.171   30 -0.346   20 0.4691  1.370 -0.245 -0.447  0.000
BILLS       6 10  0 269 374 -0.085  8.010   24  0.277   24 -0.214   27 -0.221   23 0.4624  1.060 -0.523  0.081  0.000
JETS        4 12  0 333 441 -0.137  7.631   31  0.063   31 -0.425   29 -0.343   30 0.4168  1.454 -0.121 -0.564  0.000

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RAMS       15  4  0 586 442  0.087  9.614    1  1.085    1  0.488    7  0.214    1 0.5945  1.583  0.629 -0.201  0.000
SEAHAWKS   10  7  0 450 371 -0.007  8.173   13  0.671   13  0.104   11  0.137   14 0.5224  1.386  0.259  0.014  0.000
49ERS       4 12  0 342 435 -0.084  7.968   30  0.077   30 -0.412   26 -0.199   31 0.4103  1.341 -0.138 -0.260  0.000
CARDINALS   3 13  0 225 425 -0.092  8.320   32  0.000   32 -0.482   32 -0.436   32 0.3953  0.977 -0.835 -0.037  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAINTS     14  4  0 547 393  0.095  9.362    2  1.048    2  0.447    3  0.294    2 0.5911  1.459  0.523  0.066  0.000
PANTHERS    7  9  0 376 382  0.067  8.458   17  0.496   17 -0.053   14  0.016   17 0.4790  1.317  0.043 -0.011  0.000
FALCONS     7  9  0 414 423  0.001  8.075   18  0.453   18 -0.100   18 -0.002   19 0.4723  1.499  0.285 -0.290  0.000
BUCCANEERS  5 11  0 396 464  0.063  8.627   25  0.259   25 -0.229   22 -0.121   28 0.4408  1.559  0.257 -0.499  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BEARS      12  5  0 436 299 -0.111  7.421    6  0.778    6  0.216    5  0.228    7 0.5430  1.145  0.030  0.425  0.000
VIKINGS     8  7  1 360 341 -0.038  7.780   15  0.568   15  0.010   15  0.013   15 0.5028  1.219 -0.091  0.117  0.000
PACKERS     6  9  1 376 400 -0.120  7.478   23  0.301   23 -0.209   24 -0.168   24 0.4559  1.418  0.001 -0.336  0.000
LIONS       6 10  0 324 360 -0.087  7.607   26  0.258   26 -0.233   19 -0.056   26 0.4506  1.198 -0.186  0.074  0.000

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM        W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
COWBOYS    11  7  0 385 376  0.049  9.384    7  0.746    7  0.191   16  0.006    9 0.5393  1.127 -0.214  0.225  0.000
EAGLES     10  8  0 397 383  0.093  9.567   11  0.696   11  0.126   10  0.144   12 0.5325  1.185 -0.004  0.291  0.000
REDSKINS    7  9  0 281 359 -0.061  7.872   19  0.410   19 -0.122   28 -0.246   18 0.4747  1.071 -0.534  0.043  0.000
GIANTS      5 11  0 369 412  0.007  8.244   28  0.216   27 -0.265   21 -0.097   27 0.4433  1.472  0.151 -0.345  0.000

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC NORTH  32 31  2 0.508    1  0.151
NFC SOUTH  33 33  0 0.500    2  0.103
AFC SOUTH  36 31  0 0.537    3  0.070
AFC WEST   36 32  0 0.529    4  0.063
NFC NORTH  32 31  2 0.508    5  0.013
NFC EAST   33 35  0 0.485    6 -0.088
NFC WEST   32 36  0 0.471    7 -0.123
AFC EAST   31 36  0 0.463    8 -0.340

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.145 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.028 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Feb  4 05:30:40 2019
games through: Sun Feb  3 2019

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