Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     10  1 310 246  0.004  5.182    1  0.557    1  0.542    6  0.193    1 0.6255    4  1.500    3  0.591   24 -0.204
RAVENS      9  3 324 187  0.172  6.229    2  0.431    2  0.402    1  0.541    2 0.5976   21  1.137    7  0.442    1  0.639
49ERS       8  3 310 170  0.199  5.606    3  0.385    4  0.352    2  0.525    5 0.5863   13  1.258    4  0.582    3  0.467
JAGUARS     8  3 254 225  0.198  6.137    4  0.382    3  0.392    7  0.190    3 0.5912   15  1.237   12  0.219    7  0.161
LIONS       8  3 294 258  0.029  5.312    5  0.309    6  0.308   11  0.108    8 0.5565    2  1.522    5  0.538   28 -0.322
CHIEFS      8  3 256 181  0.044  5.350    6  0.306    5  0.308    4  0.237    4 0.5891   27  0.991   19 -0.037    2  0.511
BROWNS      7  4 239 209  0.227  6.085    7  0.284    8  0.288    5  0.207    7 0.5751   20  1.143   13  0.116    5  0.298
STEELERS    7  4 182 205  0.231  6.456    8  0.272    7  0.307   14  0.069    6 0.5773   29  0.956   25 -0.245    4  0.383
COWBOYS     9  3 388 220 -0.119  4.487    9  0.211    9  0.229    3  0.383    9 0.5502    5  1.464    2  0.726   14  0.040
DOLPHINS    8  3 339 251 -0.153  4.454   10  0.203   10  0.222    9  0.134   10 0.5502    1  1.671    1  0.796   31 -0.528
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COLTS       6  5 269 268  0.051  5.571   11  0.091   11  0.099   16  0.050   13 0.5152    3  1.517    6  0.473   29 -0.372
TEXANS      6  5 259 232  0.029  5.410   12  0.050   13  0.062   13  0.074   11 0.5164   10  1.342   11  0.244   21 -0.097
BENGALS     5  6 212 242  0.212  6.406   13  0.031   12  0.069   18  0.026   14 0.5110   16  1.208   16  0.018   15  0.034
BRONCOS     6  5 246 280 -0.043  5.364   14  0.002   14  0.031   19  0.018   12 0.5153    6  1.450   10  0.341   27 -0.305
VIKINGS     6  6 263 242  0.039  5.990   15 -0.006   15  0.019   12  0.098   17 0.4893   18  1.204   14  0.083   11  0.112
SEAHAWKS    6  6 264 290 -0.009  6.056   16 -0.007   16  0.018   22 -0.076   15 0.5011   11  1.318   15  0.061   25 -0.213
RAMS        5  6 232 234  0.068  5.724   17 -0.011   17 -0.025   20 -0.005   16 0.5008   23  1.119   21 -0.126   10  0.117
PACKERS     5  6 231 224  0.001  5.395   18 -0.030   18 -0.057   15  0.053   19 0.4843   19  1.153   17 -0.026    9  0.133
SAINTS      5  6 229 222 -0.078  5.076   19 -0.075   19 -0.097   21 -0.025   24 0.4601   17  1.206   18 -0.036   18 -0.013
BILLS       6  6 328 227 -0.198  4.635   20 -0.106   24 -0.135    8  0.179   18 0.4891    9  1.348    9  0.358   17 -0.001
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS  4  7 212 227  0.142  6.046   21 -0.110   20 -0.112   17  0.030   22 0.4643   25  1.043   23 -0.184    6  0.243
CHARGERS    4  7 269 258  0.134  5.894   22 -0.122   21 -0.126   10  0.120   21 0.4651    8  1.412    8  0.389   22 -0.148
TITANS      4  7 185 224  0.087  5.962   23 -0.132   22 -0.129   23 -0.120   23 0.4634   28  0.988   27 -0.398    8  0.158
FALCONS     5  6 213 232 -0.150  4.933   24 -0.144   23 -0.132   24 -0.133   26 0.4583   22  1.135   24 -0.234   20 -0.031
RAIDERS     5  7 202 256 -0.137  5.612   25 -0.172   25 -0.161   26 -0.211   20 0.4674   26  1.020   28 -0.452   16  0.030
JETS        4  7 163 238 -0.070  5.567   26 -0.206   26 -0.186   27 -0.350   25 0.4590   30  0.845   30 -0.786   12  0.086
BEARS       4  8 242 296 -0.076  5.814   27 -0.265   27 -0.252   25 -0.149   29 0.4292   12  1.286   20 -0.055   26 -0.243
GIANTS      4  8 159 292 -0.283  5.584   28 -0.318   28 -0.312   32 -0.473   28 0.4327   31  0.834   31 -0.921   19 -0.025
COMMANDERS  4  8 246 350 -0.303  5.145   29 -0.358   29 -0.354   31 -0.455   27 0.4356    7  1.445   22 -0.138   32 -0.772
CARDINALS   2 10 206 321 -0.050  6.361   30 -0.452   30 -0.456   29 -0.376   30 0.4025   14  1.248   26 -0.332   30 -0.420
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PATRIOTS    2  9 148 248 -0.203  5.120   31 -0.479   31 -0.488   30 -0.427   31 0.3952   32  0.785   32 -0.926   13  0.073
PANTHERS    1 10 173 292 -0.003  5.750   32 -0.519   32 -0.530   28 -0.375   32 0.3642   24  1.070   29 -0.556   23 -0.194

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS      8  3 256 181  0.044  5.350    6  0.306    5  0.308    4  0.237    4 0.5891   27  0.991   19 -0.037    2  0.511
BRONCOS     6  5 246 280 -0.043  5.364   14  0.002   14  0.031   19  0.018   12 0.5153    6  1.450   10  0.341   27 -0.305
CHARGERS    4  7 269 258  0.134  5.894   22 -0.122   21 -0.126   10  0.120   21 0.4651    8  1.412    8  0.389   22 -0.148
RAIDERS     5  7 202 256 -0.137  5.612   25 -0.172   25 -0.161   26 -0.211   20 0.4674   26  1.020   28 -0.452   16  0.030

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAGUARS     8  3 254 225  0.198  6.137    4  0.382    3  0.392    7  0.190    3 0.5912   15  1.237   12  0.219    7  0.161
COLTS       6  5 269 268  0.051  5.571   11  0.091   11  0.099   16  0.050   13 0.5152    3  1.517    6  0.473   29 -0.372
TEXANS      6  5 259 232  0.029  5.410   12  0.050   13  0.062   13  0.074   11 0.5164   10  1.342   11  0.244   21 -0.097
TITANS      4  7 185 224  0.087  5.962   23 -0.132   22 -0.129   23 -0.120   23 0.4634   28  0.988   27 -0.398    8  0.158

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS      9  3 324 187  0.172  6.229    2  0.431    2  0.402    1  0.541    2 0.5976   21  1.137    7  0.442    1  0.639
BROWNS      7  4 239 209  0.227  6.085    7  0.284    8  0.288    5  0.207    7 0.5751   20  1.143   13  0.116    5  0.298
STEELERS    7  4 182 205  0.231  6.456    8  0.272    7  0.307   14  0.069    6 0.5773   29  0.956   25 -0.245    4  0.383
BENGALS     5  6 212 242  0.212  6.406   13  0.031   12  0.069   18  0.026   14 0.5110   16  1.208   16  0.018   15  0.034

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DOLPHINS    8  3 339 251 -0.153  4.454   10  0.203   10  0.222    9  0.134   10 0.5502    1  1.671    1  0.796   31 -0.528
BILLS       6  6 328 227 -0.198  4.635   20 -0.106   24 -0.135    8  0.179   18 0.4891    9  1.348    9  0.358   17 -0.001
JETS        4  7 163 238 -0.070  5.567   26 -0.206   26 -0.186   27 -0.350   25 0.4590   30  0.845   30 -0.786   12  0.086
PATRIOTS    2  9 148 248 -0.203  5.120   31 -0.479   31 -0.488   30 -0.427   31 0.3952   32  0.785   32 -0.926   13  0.073

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
49ERS       8  3 310 170  0.199  5.606    3  0.385    4  0.352    2  0.525    5 0.5863   13  1.258    4  0.582    3  0.467
SEAHAWKS    6  6 264 290 -0.009  6.056   16 -0.007   16  0.018   22 -0.076   15 0.5011   11  1.318   15  0.061   25 -0.213
RAMS        5  6 232 234  0.068  5.724   17 -0.011   17 -0.025   20 -0.005   16 0.5008   23  1.119   21 -0.126   10  0.117
CARDINALS   2 10 206 321 -0.050  6.361   30 -0.452   30 -0.456   29 -0.376   30 0.4025   14  1.248   26 -0.332   30 -0.420

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAINTS      5  6 229 222 -0.078  5.076   19 -0.075   19 -0.097   21 -0.025   24 0.4601   17  1.206   18 -0.036   18 -0.013
BUCCANEERS  4  7 212 227  0.142  6.046   21 -0.110   20 -0.112   17  0.030   22 0.4643   25  1.043   23 -0.184    6  0.243
FALCONS     5  6 213 232 -0.150  4.933   24 -0.144   23 -0.132   24 -0.133   26 0.4583   22  1.135   24 -0.234   20 -0.031
PANTHERS    1 10 173 292 -0.003  5.750   32 -0.519   32 -0.530   28 -0.375   32 0.3642   24  1.070   29 -0.556   23 -0.194

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS       8  3 294 258  0.029  5.312    5  0.309    6  0.308   11  0.108    8 0.5565    2  1.522    5  0.538   28 -0.322
VIKINGS     6  6 263 242  0.039  5.990   15 -0.006   15  0.019   12  0.098   17 0.4893   18  1.204   14  0.083   11  0.112
PACKERS     5  6 231 224  0.001  5.395   18 -0.030   18 -0.057   15  0.053   19 0.4843   19  1.153   17 -0.026    9  0.133
BEARS       4  8 242 296 -0.076  5.814   27 -0.265   27 -0.252   25 -0.149   29 0.4292   12  1.286   20 -0.055   26 -0.243

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     10  1 310 246  0.004  5.182    1  0.557    1  0.542    6  0.193    1 0.6255    4  1.500    3  0.591   24 -0.204
COWBOYS     9  3 388 220 -0.119  4.487    9  0.211    9  0.229    3  0.383    9 0.5502    5  1.464    2  0.726   14  0.040
GIANTS      4  8 159 292 -0.283  5.584   28 -0.318   28 -0.312   32 -0.473   28 0.4327   31  0.834   31 -0.921   19 -0.025
COMMANDERS  4  8 246 350 -0.303  5.145   29 -0.358   29 -0.354   31 -0.455   27 0.4356    7  1.445   22 -0.138   32 -0.772

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC NORTH  28 17 0.622    1  0.376
AFC SOUTH  24 20 0.545    2  0.123
NFC NORTH  23 23 0.500    3  0.040
NFC WEST   21 25 0.457    4  0.038
AFC WEST   23 22 0.511    5  0.037
NFC EAST   27 20 0.574    6 -0.180
AFC EAST   20 25 0.444    7 -0.191
NFC SOUTH  15 29 0.341    8 -0.245

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.156 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.019 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Dec  1 05:30:08 2023
games through: Thu Nov 30 2023

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