Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      9 1 336 177  0.208  5.002    2  0.580    2  0.603    1  0.642    1 0.6442   13  1.341    1  0.759    3  0.526
RAVENS     7 4 334 271  0.110  5.568   11  0.230   11  0.206    5  0.264   11 0.5451    2  1.579    2  0.727   23 -0.199
BUCCANEERS 4 6 279 266  0.233  5.692   18 -0.031   18 -0.010   14  0.133   16 0.5067    3  1.554    3  0.559   26 -0.294
BILLS      9 2 320 214  0.081  5.317    3  0.465    3  0.473    2  0.384    3 0.6071    8  1.376    4  0.549    9  0.219
BENGALS    4 7 297 296 -0.103  5.004   23 -0.274   23 -0.263   18 -0.029   24 0.4402    1  1.606    5  0.477   29 -0.535
COMMANDERS 7 4 308 243 -0.017  5.020   12  0.181   12  0.169   12  0.171   12 0.5211    4  1.469    6  0.470   20 -0.128
PACKERS    7 3 250 213  0.184  5.410    6  0.353    6  0.350   10  0.212    5 0.5890   12  1.353    7  0.345   13  0.079
CARDINALS  6 4 238 220  0.241  5.666    9  0.266    9  0.243    9  0.229    8 0.5578   14  1.333    8  0.334   10  0.124
49ERS      5 5 250 222  0.068  5.042   16  0.019   16  0.025   15  0.102   17 0.5067   11  1.361    9  0.246   17 -0.042
TEXANS     7 4 258 236  0.106  5.707    8  0.273    8  0.247   13  0.155    9 0.5547   18  1.287   10  0.197   11  0.112
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEAHAWKS   5 5 230 238  0.033  4.994   17 -0.010   17  0.006   16  0.015   18 0.5034    9  1.370   11  0.172   21 -0.142
EAGLES     8 2 259 179 -0.120  4.107    7  0.349    7  0.327    4  0.275    7 0.5659   22  1.147   12  0.135    7  0.414
VIKINGS    8 2 244 170  0.105  4.908    4  0.430    4  0.434    3  0.303    4 0.5981   23  1.124   13  0.134    5  0.471
COLTS      5 6 236 250  0.085  5.786   19 -0.038   19 -0.020   17  0.003   19 0.5019   17  1.308   14  0.073   18 -0.068
CHIEFS     9 1 240 191  0.164  5.299    1  0.594    1  0.621    7  0.245    2 0.6380   24  1.120   15  0.072    6  0.419
STEELERS   8 2 233 162  0.012  4.614    5  0.380    5  0.375    6  0.253    6 0.5841   25  1.072   16  0.022    4  0.484
SAINTS     4 7 262 260 -0.230  4.609   25 -0.327   25 -0.324   23 -0.183   22 0.4479    7  1.383   17 -0.009   27 -0.358
RAMS       5 5 213 239  0.057  5.225   15  0.028   15  0.039   19 -0.052   15 0.5106   19  1.282   18 -0.017   19 -0.088
JAGUARS    2 9 208 316  0.013  5.980   29 -0.417   29 -0.431   27 -0.296   27 0.4164    6  1.395   19 -0.105   28 -0.488
FALCONS    6 5 244 274 -0.043  5.432   14  0.057   14  0.072   24 -0.198   13 0.5203   15  1.310   20 -0.125   25 -0.271
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRONCOS    6 5 235 183  0.066  5.422   13  0.099   13  0.080   11  0.204   14 0.5198   30  0.944   21 -0.176    2  0.584
CHARGERS   7 3 220 145 -0.058  4.281   10  0.243   10  0.221    8  0.239   10 0.5458   32  0.895   22 -0.196    1  0.674
JETS       3 8 204 242  0.112  5.977   24 -0.284   24 -0.269   20 -0.079   25 0.4379   21  1.158   23 -0.204   15  0.047
RAIDERS    2 8 187 285 -0.150  4.962   30 -0.425   30 -0.442   29 -0.405   28 0.4044    5  1.395   24 -0.213   31 -0.596
COWBOYS    3 7 187 293 -0.036  5.227   22 -0.262   22 -0.243   30 -0.407   23 0.4469   10  1.362   25 -0.261   30 -0.552
TITANS     2 8 170 263  0.077  5.600   26 -0.358   26 -0.353   25 -0.258   26 0.4224   20  1.239   26 -0.280   24 -0.237
DOLPHINS   4 6 181 221 -0.120  4.702   20 -0.198   20 -0.177   22 -0.145   20 0.4590   27  1.053   27 -0.400   12  0.109
BEARS      4 6 194 187 -0.168  4.361   21 -0.237   21 -0.222   21 -0.143   21 0.4507   29  0.960   28 -0.506    8  0.219
PANTHERS   3 7 167 310 -0.292  4.393   27 -0.365   27 -0.363   32 -0.609   29 0.4026   16  1.309   29 -0.537   32 -0.681
PATRIOTS   3 8 182 248 -0.168  4.855   28 -0.389   28 -0.390   26 -0.272   31 0.3926   28  1.023   30 -0.562   16  0.018
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BROWNS     2 8 162 248 -0.243  4.430   32 -0.488   32 -0.490   31 -0.417   32 0.3727   26  1.059   31 -0.664   22 -0.169
GIANTS     2 8 156 222 -0.156  4.789   31 -0.445   31 -0.465   28 -0.335   30 0.3954   31  0.922   32 -0.739   14  0.070

AFC WEST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     9 1 240 191  0.164  5.299    1  0.594    1  0.621    7  0.245    2 0.6380   24  1.120   15  0.072    6  0.419
BRONCOS    6 5 235 183  0.066  5.422   13  0.099   13  0.080   11  0.204   14 0.5198   30  0.944   21 -0.176    2  0.584
CHARGERS   7 3 220 145 -0.058  4.281   10  0.243   10  0.221    8  0.239   10 0.5458   32  0.895   22 -0.196    1  0.674
RAIDERS    2 8 187 285 -0.150  4.962   30 -0.425   30 -0.442   29 -0.405   28 0.4044    5  1.395   24 -0.213   31 -0.596

AFC SOUTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS     7 4 258 236  0.106  5.707    8  0.273    8  0.247   13  0.155    9 0.5547   18  1.287   10  0.197   11  0.112
COLTS      5 6 236 250  0.085  5.786   19 -0.038   19 -0.020   17  0.003   19 0.5019   17  1.308   14  0.073   18 -0.068
JAGUARS    2 9 208 316  0.013  5.980   29 -0.417   29 -0.431   27 -0.296   27 0.4164    6  1.395   19 -0.105   28 -0.488
TITANS     2 8 170 263  0.077  5.600   26 -0.358   26 -0.353   25 -0.258   26 0.4224   20  1.239   26 -0.280   24 -0.237

AFC NORTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     7 4 334 271  0.110  5.568   11  0.230   11  0.206    5  0.264   11 0.5451    2  1.579    2  0.727   23 -0.199
BENGALS    4 7 297 296 -0.103  5.004   23 -0.274   23 -0.263   18 -0.029   24 0.4402    1  1.606    5  0.477   29 -0.535
STEELERS   8 2 233 162  0.012  4.614    5  0.380    5  0.375    6  0.253    6 0.5841   25  1.072   16  0.022    4  0.484
BROWNS     2 8 162 248 -0.243  4.430   32 -0.488   32 -0.490   31 -0.417   32 0.3727   26  1.059   31 -0.664   22 -0.169

AFC EAST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      9 2 320 214  0.081  5.317    3  0.465    3  0.473    2  0.384    3 0.6071    8  1.376    4  0.549    9  0.219
JETS       3 8 204 242  0.112  5.977   24 -0.284   24 -0.269   20 -0.079   25 0.4379   21  1.158   23 -0.204   15  0.047
DOLPHINS   4 6 181 221 -0.120  4.702   20 -0.198   20 -0.177   22 -0.145   20 0.4590   27  1.053   27 -0.400   12  0.109
PATRIOTS   3 8 182 248 -0.168  4.855   28 -0.389   28 -0.390   26 -0.272   31 0.3926   28  1.023   30 -0.562   16  0.018

NFC WEST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CARDINALS  6 4 238 220  0.241  5.666    9  0.266    9  0.243    9  0.229    8 0.5578   14  1.333    8  0.334   10  0.124
49ERS      5 5 250 222  0.068  5.042   16  0.019   16  0.025   15  0.102   17 0.5067   11  1.361    9  0.246   17 -0.042
SEAHAWKS   5 5 230 238  0.033  4.994   17 -0.010   17  0.006   16  0.015   18 0.5034    9  1.370   11  0.172   21 -0.142
RAMS       5 5 213 239  0.057  5.225   15  0.028   15  0.039   19 -0.052   15 0.5106   19  1.282   18 -0.017   19 -0.088

NFC SOUTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS 4 6 279 266  0.233  5.692   18 -0.031   18 -0.010   14  0.133   16 0.5067    3  1.554    3  0.559   26 -0.294
SAINTS     4 7 262 260 -0.230  4.609   25 -0.327   25 -0.324   23 -0.183   22 0.4479    7  1.383   17 -0.009   27 -0.358
FALCONS    6 5 244 274 -0.043  5.432   14  0.057   14  0.072   24 -0.198   13 0.5203   15  1.310   20 -0.125   25 -0.271
PANTHERS   3 7 167 310 -0.292  4.393   27 -0.365   27 -0.363   32 -0.609   29 0.4026   16  1.309   29 -0.537   32 -0.681

NFC NORTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      9 1 336 177  0.208  5.002    2  0.580    2  0.603    1  0.642    1 0.6442   13  1.341    1  0.759    3  0.526
PACKERS    7 3 250 213  0.184  5.410    6  0.353    6  0.350   10  0.212    5 0.5890   12  1.353    7  0.345   13  0.079
VIKINGS    8 2 244 170  0.105  4.908    4  0.430    4  0.434    3  0.303    4 0.5981   23  1.124   13  0.134    5  0.471
BEARS      4 6 194 187 -0.168  4.361   21 -0.237   21 -0.222   21 -0.143   21 0.4507   29  0.960   28 -0.506    8  0.219

NFC EAST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COMMANDERS 7 4 308 243 -0.017  5.020   12  0.181   12  0.169   12  0.171   12 0.5211    4  1.469    6  0.470   20 -0.128
EAGLES     8 2 259 179 -0.120  4.107    7  0.349    7  0.327    4  0.275    7 0.5659   22  1.147   12  0.135    7  0.414
COWBOYS    3 7 187 293 -0.036  5.227   22 -0.262   22 -0.243   30 -0.407   23 0.4469   10  1.362   25 -0.261   30 -0.552
GIANTS     2 8 156 222 -0.156  4.789   31 -0.445   31 -0.465   28 -0.335   30 0.3954   31  0.922   32 -0.739   14  0.070

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  28 12 0.700    1  0.497
AFC WEST   24 17 0.585    2  0.153
NFC WEST   21 19 0.525    3  0.143
AFC NORTH  21 21 0.500    4  0.026
AFC EAST   19 24 0.442    5 -0.098
NFC EAST   20 21 0.488    6 -0.137
AFC SOUTH  16 27 0.372    7 -0.202
NFC SOUTH  17 25 0.405    8 -0.346

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.115 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Nov 19 05:30:09 2024
games through: Mon Nov 18 2024

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