Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      11  3 445 310  0.129  7.149    5  0.499    5  0.492    2  0.440    5 0.6031    2  1.578    1  0.878   15  0.002
LIONS      12  2 459 282  0.217  7.476    2  0.664    2  0.648    1  0.561    1 0.6355    6  1.458    2  0.819    5  0.302
RAVENS     10  5 452 349  0.135  7.902    7  0.320    7  0.302    5  0.362    7 0.5644    3  1.550    3  0.757   18 -0.033
BENGALS     6  8 399 387 -0.101  6.430   22 -0.176   22 -0.184   17  0.001   21 0.4633    1  1.686    4  0.611   32 -0.608
BUCCANEERS  8  6 403 326  0.090  7.120   10  0.148   11  0.146    7  0.251   10 0.5360    4  1.517    5  0.597   21 -0.094
PACKERS    10  4 379 287  0.196  7.591    6  0.430    6  0.419    3  0.396    6 0.5921    8  1.378    6  0.538    7  0.253
COMMANDERS  9  5 396 315 -0.108  6.110   13  0.130   13  0.138   11  0.112   16 0.5163    5  1.490    7  0.418   25 -0.193
VIKINGS    12  2 369 252 -0.002  6.522    3  0.551    3  0.546    6  0.311    3 0.6038   16  1.259    8  0.292    4  0.330
EAGLES     12  2 369 247 -0.011  6.421    4  0.538    4  0.532    4  0.363    4 0.6037   26  1.157    9  0.212    1  0.514
RAMS        8  6 310 338  0.119  7.689    9  0.183    9  0.183   16  0.043    9 0.5382   10  1.318   10  0.102   17 -0.016
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRONCOS     9  6 363 281 -0.018  7.066   15  0.121   15  0.131    8  0.199   14 0.5237   24  1.199   11  0.101    6  0.297
SEAHAWKS    8  6 315 313  0.073  7.305   14  0.123   14  0.134   13  0.089   13 0.5280   14  1.270   12  0.084   10  0.093
TEXANS      9  6 347 327 -0.018  7.301   12  0.132   12  0.142   15  0.044   12 0.5290   12  1.286   13  0.060   14  0.029
CARDINALS   7  7 314 306  0.164  7.781   16  0.074   16  0.084   12  0.099   15 0.5178   18  1.241   14  0.055    9  0.143
STEELERS   10  5 353 299 -0.015  7.176    8  0.236    8  0.234   14  0.084    8 0.5412   23  1.202   15 -0.011    8  0.178
CHIEFS     14  1 356 278  0.010  7.237    1  0.735    1  0.725    9  0.193    2 0.6345   28  1.115   16 -0.011    3  0.397
49ERS       6  8 314 320  0.100  7.550   18 -0.056   18 -0.052   18 -0.014   18 0.4975   15  1.266   17 -0.024   16 -0.004
COWBOYS     6  8 298 380 -0.125  6.706   20 -0.147   20 -0.151   25 -0.269   20 0.4680    7  1.382   18 -0.120   30 -0.417
CHARGERS    9  6 328 274  0.012  7.336   11  0.145   10  0.156   10  0.140   11 0.5339   31  1.048   19 -0.145    2  0.425
FALCONS     7  7 293 342  0.024  7.338   17  0.031   17  0.039   23 -0.161   17 0.5146   13  1.276   20 -0.158   24 -0.164
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAINTS      5  9 309 312 -0.162  6.244   23 -0.304   23 -0.321   22 -0.152   23 0.4487   17  1.256   21 -0.176   22 -0.129
COLTS       6  8 280 329  0.057  7.483   19 -0.074   19 -0.072   20 -0.138   19 0.4824   21  1.226   22 -0.201   19 -0.076
JETS        4 10 283 325 -0.041  6.907   25 -0.340   25 -0.357   21 -0.140   25 0.4196   20  1.227   23 -0.202   20 -0.079
JAGUARS     3 11 263 377 -0.040  7.271   28 -0.458   28 -0.458   26 -0.274   26 0.4107   11  1.286   24 -0.257   28 -0.290
DOLPHINS    6  8 276 312 -0.102  6.702   21 -0.153   21 -0.158   19 -0.116   22 0.4608   27  1.119   25 -0.315   11  0.083
TITANS      3 11 254 379 -0.005  7.478   26 -0.427   26 -0.427   27 -0.334   27 0.4090   22  1.210   26 -0.418   27 -0.251
RAIDERS     2 12 245 376 -0.028  7.416   31 -0.543   31 -0.547   30 -0.364   29 0.4016   19  1.232   27 -0.419   29 -0.308
BEARS       4 10 266 308 -0.007  7.213   24 -0.326   24 -0.342   24 -0.173   24 0.4362   30  1.079   28 -0.421   12  0.076
PANTHERS    3 11 247 418 -0.175  6.727   29 -0.506   29 -0.510   32 -0.488   30 0.3970    9  1.323   29 -0.422   31 -0.555
BROWNS      3 11 239 356 -0.070  7.106   27 -0.451   27 -0.453   29 -0.347   28 0.4071   25  1.169   30 -0.483   26 -0.211
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PATRIOTS    3 11 238 337 -0.173  6.285   30 -0.517   30 -0.520   28 -0.345   32 0.3754   29  1.113   31 -0.552   23 -0.139
GIANTS      2 12 208 328 -0.097  7.019   32 -0.582   32 -0.590   31 -0.436   31 0.3837   32  0.861   32 -0.932   13  0.060

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRONCOS     9  6 363 281 -0.018  7.066   15  0.121   15  0.131    8  0.199   14 0.5237   24  1.199   11  0.101    6  0.297
CHIEFS     14  1 356 278  0.010  7.237    1  0.735    1  0.725    9  0.193    2 0.6345   28  1.115   16 -0.011    3  0.397
CHARGERS    9  6 328 274  0.012  7.336   11  0.145   10  0.156   10  0.140   11 0.5339   31  1.048   19 -0.145    2  0.425
RAIDERS     2 12 245 376 -0.028  7.416   31 -0.543   31 -0.547   30 -0.364   29 0.4016   19  1.232   27 -0.419   29 -0.308

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS      9  6 347 327 -0.018  7.301   12  0.132   12  0.142   15  0.044   12 0.5290   12  1.286   13  0.060   14  0.029
COLTS       6  8 280 329  0.057  7.483   19 -0.074   19 -0.072   20 -0.138   19 0.4824   21  1.226   22 -0.201   19 -0.076
JAGUARS     3 11 263 377 -0.040  7.271   28 -0.458   28 -0.458   26 -0.274   26 0.4107   11  1.286   24 -0.257   28 -0.290
TITANS      3 11 254 379 -0.005  7.478   26 -0.427   26 -0.427   27 -0.334   27 0.4090   22  1.210   26 -0.418   27 -0.251

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     10  5 452 349  0.135  7.902    7  0.320    7  0.302    5  0.362    7 0.5644    3  1.550    3  0.757   18 -0.033
BENGALS     6  8 399 387 -0.101  6.430   22 -0.176   22 -0.184   17  0.001   21 0.4633    1  1.686    4  0.611   32 -0.608
STEELERS   10  5 353 299 -0.015  7.176    8  0.236    8  0.234   14  0.084    8 0.5412   23  1.202   15 -0.011    8  0.178
BROWNS      3 11 239 356 -0.070  7.106   27 -0.451   27 -0.453   29 -0.347   28 0.4071   25  1.169   30 -0.483   26 -0.211

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      11  3 445 310  0.129  7.149    5  0.499    5  0.492    2  0.440    5 0.6031    2  1.578    1  0.878   15  0.002
JETS        4 10 283 325 -0.041  6.907   25 -0.340   25 -0.357   21 -0.140   25 0.4196   20  1.227   23 -0.202   20 -0.079
DOLPHINS    6  8 276 312 -0.102  6.702   21 -0.153   21 -0.158   19 -0.116   22 0.4608   27  1.119   25 -0.315   11  0.083
PATRIOTS    3 11 238 337 -0.173  6.285   30 -0.517   30 -0.520   28 -0.345   32 0.3754   29  1.113   31 -0.552   23 -0.139

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS        8  6 310 338  0.119  7.689    9  0.183    9  0.183   16  0.043    9 0.5382   10  1.318   10  0.102   17 -0.016
SEAHAWKS    8  6 315 313  0.073  7.305   14  0.123   14  0.134   13  0.089   13 0.5280   14  1.270   12  0.084   10  0.093
CARDINALS   7  7 314 306  0.164  7.781   16  0.074   16  0.084   12  0.099   15 0.5178   18  1.241   14  0.055    9  0.143
49ERS       6  8 314 320  0.100  7.550   18 -0.056   18 -0.052   18 -0.014   18 0.4975   15  1.266   17 -0.024   16 -0.004

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS  8  6 403 326  0.090  7.120   10  0.148   11  0.146    7  0.251   10 0.5360    4  1.517    5  0.597   21 -0.094
FALCONS     7  7 293 342  0.024  7.338   17  0.031   17  0.039   23 -0.161   17 0.5146   13  1.276   20 -0.158   24 -0.164
SAINTS      5  9 309 312 -0.162  6.244   23 -0.304   23 -0.321   22 -0.152   23 0.4487   17  1.256   21 -0.176   22 -0.129
PANTHERS    3 11 247 418 -0.175  6.727   29 -0.506   29 -0.510   32 -0.488   30 0.3970    9  1.323   29 -0.422   31 -0.555

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      12  2 459 282  0.217  7.476    2  0.664    2  0.648    1  0.561    1 0.6355    6  1.458    2  0.819    5  0.302
PACKERS    10  4 379 287  0.196  7.591    6  0.430    6  0.419    3  0.396    6 0.5921    8  1.378    6  0.538    7  0.253
VIKINGS    12  2 369 252 -0.002  6.522    3  0.551    3  0.546    6  0.311    3 0.6038   16  1.259    8  0.292    4  0.330
BEARS       4 10 266 308 -0.007  7.213   24 -0.326   24 -0.342   24 -0.173   24 0.4362   30  1.079   28 -0.421   12  0.076

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COMMANDERS  9  5 396 315 -0.108  6.110   13  0.130   13  0.138   11  0.112   16 0.5163    5  1.490    7  0.418   25 -0.193
EAGLES     12  2 369 247 -0.011  6.421    4  0.538    4  0.532    4  0.363    4 0.6037   26  1.157    9  0.212    1  0.514
COWBOYS     6  8 298 380 -0.125  6.706   20 -0.147   20 -0.151   25 -0.269   20 0.4680    7  1.382   18 -0.120   30 -0.417
GIANTS      2 12 208 328 -0.097  7.019   32 -0.582   32 -0.590   31 -0.436   31 0.3837   32  0.861   32 -0.932   13  0.060

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  38 18 0.679    1  0.499
NFC WEST   29 27 0.518    2  0.102
AFC WEST   34 25 0.576    3  0.096
AFC NORTH  29 29 0.500    4  0.035
NFC EAST   29 27 0.518    5 -0.098
AFC EAST   24 32 0.429    6 -0.117
NFC SOUTH  23 33 0.411    7 -0.243
AFC SOUTH  21 36 0.368    8 -0.293

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.107 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Dec 22 05:30:16 2024
games through: Sat Dec 21 2024

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