Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     6 3 283 219  0.161  4.657    9  0.223    9  0.228    2  0.312    5 0.5694    1  1.598    1  0.800   23 -0.176
BUCCANEERS 4 5 259 243  0.316  5.365   16  0.071   16  0.078   10  0.189   12 0.5448    2  1.585    2  0.656   25 -0.278
LIONS      7 1 258 148  0.269  4.228    2  0.475    2  0.490    1  0.508    2 0.6457   16  1.317    3  0.585    5  0.431
COMMANDERS 7 2 263 189 -0.042  3.891    4  0.280    4  0.299    8  0.221    7 0.5675    7  1.423    4  0.446   17 -0.005
49ERS      4 4 210 182  0.073  3.992   17  0.024   17  0.021   12  0.114   16 0.5090    5  1.430    5  0.349   22 -0.122
VIKINGS    6 2 209 150  0.215  4.238    3  0.316    3  0.340    3  0.305    3 0.5988   18  1.284    6  0.338    7  0.272
BENGALS    4 5 236 227 -0.193  3.762   22 -0.151   22 -0.157   21 -0.041   22 0.4655    3  1.523    7  0.332   29 -0.413
BILLS      7 2 260 173 -0.082  3.712    5  0.261    5  0.276    7  0.236   10 0.5555   14  1.327    8  0.328   11  0.145
PACKERS    6 3 230 194  0.155  4.720    7  0.237    7  0.254    9  0.199    4 0.5775   13  1.333    9  0.298   12  0.099
CARDINALS  5 4 207 214  0.250  5.233   12  0.169   12  0.178   13  0.103   11 0.5503   10  1.394   10  0.288   20 -0.081
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEAHAWKS   4 5 210 221 -0.051  4.237   21 -0.087   21 -0.086   22 -0.041   20 0.4758    6  1.425   11  0.188   24 -0.270
JAGUARS    2 7 195 252 -0.192  4.073   31 -0.446   31 -0.389   26 -0.232   30 0.3916    4  1.515   12  0.129   31 -0.592
COWBOYS    3 5 171 225  0.079  4.364   20 -0.083   20 -0.076   23 -0.121   21 0.4750    8  1.418   13  0.098   27 -0.340
CHIEFS     8 0 203 147  0.179  4.190    1  0.593    1  0.619    4  0.280    1 0.6729   23  1.114   14  0.093    3  0.466
FALCONS    6 3 221 216  0.030  4.528   10  0.219   10  0.226   17  0.000    6 0.5690   15  1.319   15  0.080   19 -0.080
EAGLES     6 2 199 155 -0.079  3.457    8  0.232    8  0.237   11  0.159    9 0.5580   22  1.190   16  0.068    8  0.249
STEELERS   6 2 187 119  0.011  3.631    6  0.242    6  0.256    5  0.266    8 0.5656   25  1.101   17  0.063    2  0.468
TEXANS     6 3 201 200  0.016  4.462   11  0.212   11  0.217   16  0.004   13 0.5426   17  1.291   18  0.046   18 -0.038
SAINTS     2 7 207 229 -0.098  4.331   29 -0.355   30 -0.372   24 -0.210   24 0.4268    9  1.402   19 -0.014   28 -0.405
RAMS       4 4 170 194  0.208  4.613   14  0.098   14  0.100   15  0.039   15 0.5333   21  1.214   20 -0.021   13  0.099
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COLTS      4 5 188 193 -0.024  4.343   18 -0.062   19 -0.069   20 -0.025   19 0.4830   20  1.219   21 -0.079   15  0.028
RAIDERS    2 7 168 251 -0.054  4.766   26 -0.303   26 -0.314   28 -0.291   25 0.4251   11  1.383   22 -0.122   30 -0.461
JETS       3 6 171 183  0.008  4.457   23 -0.197   23 -0.202   18 -0.017   23 0.4352   24  1.112   23 -0.206   10  0.171
BRONCOS    5 4 183 161  0.064  4.504   15  0.095   15  0.092   14  0.072   17 0.5067   30  0.959   24 -0.297    4  0.442
TITANS     2 6 140 213 -0.124  3.967   25 -0.277   25 -0.288   30 -0.301   27 0.4077   19  1.254   25 -0.308   26 -0.294
BEARS      4 4 172 148 -0.174  3.345   19 -0.070   18 -0.069   19 -0.021   18 0.4844   27  1.015   26 -0.326    6  0.284
CHARGERS   5 3 159 101  0.031  3.636   13  0.127   13  0.125    6  0.251   14 0.5381   32  0.735   27 -0.356    1  0.858
PANTHERS   2 7 147 293 -0.188  4.338   30 -0.418   29 -0.356   32 -0.569   28 0.3988   12  1.335   28 -0.468   32 -0.671
BROWNS     2 7 148 213 -0.133  4.270   28 -0.336   28 -0.351   27 -0.266   29 0.3961   26  1.039   29 -0.543   16  0.011
GIANTS     2 7 139 202  0.050  4.890   24 -0.274   24 -0.282   25 -0.221   26 0.4245   31  0.937   30 -0.615    9  0.173
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DOLPHINS   2 6 124 187 -0.238  3.583   27 -0.320   27 -0.336   29 -0.300   31 0.3888   29  0.992   31 -0.631   14  0.032
PATRIOTS   2 7 141 217 -0.291  3.721   32 -0.496   32 -0.419   31 -0.407   32 0.3590   28  1.008   32 -0.720   21 -0.093

AFC WEST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     8 0 203 147  0.179  4.190    1  0.593    1  0.619    4  0.280    1 0.6729   23  1.114   14  0.093    3  0.466
RAIDERS    2 7 168 251 -0.054  4.766   26 -0.303   26 -0.314   28 -0.291   25 0.4251   11  1.383   22 -0.122   30 -0.461
BRONCOS    5 4 183 161  0.064  4.504   15  0.095   15  0.092   14  0.072   17 0.5067   30  0.959   24 -0.297    4  0.442
CHARGERS   5 3 159 101  0.031  3.636   13  0.127   13  0.125    6  0.251   14 0.5381   32  0.735   27 -0.356    1  0.858

AFC SOUTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAGUARS    2 7 195 252 -0.192  4.073   31 -0.446   31 -0.389   26 -0.232   30 0.3916    4  1.515   12  0.129   31 -0.592
TEXANS     6 3 201 200  0.016  4.462   11  0.212   11  0.217   16  0.004   13 0.5426   17  1.291   18  0.046   18 -0.038
COLTS      4 5 188 193 -0.024  4.343   18 -0.062   19 -0.069   20 -0.025   19 0.4830   20  1.219   21 -0.079   15  0.028
TITANS     2 6 140 213 -0.124  3.967   25 -0.277   25 -0.288   30 -0.301   27 0.4077   19  1.254   25 -0.308   26 -0.294

AFC NORTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     6 3 283 219  0.161  4.657    9  0.223    9  0.228    2  0.312    5 0.5694    1  1.598    1  0.800   23 -0.176
BENGALS    4 5 236 227 -0.193  3.762   22 -0.151   22 -0.157   21 -0.041   22 0.4655    3  1.523    7  0.332   29 -0.413
STEELERS   6 2 187 119  0.011  3.631    6  0.242    6  0.256    5  0.266    8 0.5656   25  1.101   17  0.063    2  0.468
BROWNS     2 7 148 213 -0.133  4.270   28 -0.336   28 -0.351   27 -0.266   29 0.3961   26  1.039   29 -0.543   16  0.011

AFC EAST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      7 2 260 173 -0.082  3.712    5  0.261    5  0.276    7  0.236   10 0.5555   14  1.327    8  0.328   11  0.145
JETS       3 6 171 183  0.008  4.457   23 -0.197   23 -0.202   18 -0.017   23 0.4352   24  1.112   23 -0.206   10  0.171
DOLPHINS   2 6 124 187 -0.238  3.583   27 -0.320   27 -0.336   29 -0.300   31 0.3888   29  0.992   31 -0.631   14  0.032
PATRIOTS   2 7 141 217 -0.291  3.721   32 -0.496   32 -0.419   31 -0.407   32 0.3590   28  1.008   32 -0.720   21 -0.093

NFC WEST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
49ERS      4 4 210 182  0.073  3.992   17  0.024   17  0.021   12  0.114   16 0.5090    5  1.430    5  0.349   22 -0.122
CARDINALS  5 4 207 214  0.250  5.233   12  0.169   12  0.178   13  0.103   11 0.5503   10  1.394   10  0.288   20 -0.081
SEAHAWKS   4 5 210 221 -0.051  4.237   21 -0.087   21 -0.086   22 -0.041   20 0.4758    6  1.425   11  0.188   24 -0.270
RAMS       4 4 170 194  0.208  4.613   14  0.098   14  0.100   15  0.039   15 0.5333   21  1.214   20 -0.021   13  0.099

NFC SOUTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS 4 5 259 243  0.316  5.365   16  0.071   16  0.078   10  0.189   12 0.5448    2  1.585    2  0.656   25 -0.278
FALCONS    6 3 221 216  0.030  4.528   10  0.219   10  0.226   17  0.000    6 0.5690   15  1.319   15  0.080   19 -0.080
SAINTS     2 7 207 229 -0.098  4.331   29 -0.355   30 -0.372   24 -0.210   24 0.4268    9  1.402   19 -0.014   28 -0.405
PANTHERS   2 7 147 293 -0.188  4.338   30 -0.418   29 -0.356   32 -0.569   28 0.3988   12  1.335   28 -0.468   32 -0.671

NFC NORTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      7 1 258 148  0.269  4.228    2  0.475    2  0.490    1  0.508    2 0.6457   16  1.317    3  0.585    5  0.431
VIKINGS    6 2 209 150  0.215  4.238    3  0.316    3  0.340    3  0.305    3 0.5988   18  1.284    6  0.338    7  0.272
PACKERS    6 3 230 194  0.155  4.720    7  0.237    7  0.254    9  0.199    4 0.5775   13  1.333    9  0.298   12  0.099
BEARS      4 4 172 148 -0.174  3.345   19 -0.070   18 -0.069   19 -0.021   18 0.4844   27  1.015   26 -0.326    6  0.284

NFC EAST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COMMANDERS 7 2 263 189 -0.042  3.891    4  0.280    4  0.299    8  0.221    7 0.5675    7  1.423    4  0.446   17 -0.005
COWBOYS    3 5 171 225  0.079  4.364   20 -0.083   20 -0.076   23 -0.121   21 0.4750    8  1.418   13  0.098   27 -0.340
EAGLES     6 2 199 155 -0.079  3.457    8  0.232    8  0.237   11  0.159    9 0.5580   22  1.190   16  0.068    8  0.249
GIANTS     2 7 139 202  0.050  4.890   24 -0.274   24 -0.282   25 -0.221   26 0.4245   31  0.937   30 -0.615    9  0.173

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  23 10 0.697    1  0.536
AFC WEST   20 14 0.588    2  0.194
AFC NORTH  18 17 0.514    3  0.121
NFC WEST   17 17 0.500    4  0.114
NFC EAST   18 16 0.529    5 -0.003
NFC SOUTH  14 22 0.389    6 -0.256
AFC EAST   14 21 0.400    7 -0.292
AFC SOUTH  14 21 0.400    8 -0.313

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.107 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Nov  5 05:30:14 2024
games through: Mon Nov  4 2024

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