Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      13  2 493 299  0.182  7.805    2  0.662    2  0.650    1  0.569    2 0.6305    6  1.467    1  0.835    6  0.303
PACKERS    10  4 379 287  0.182  7.487    6  0.408    6  0.403    2  0.380    6 0.5873    9  1.362    7  0.497    7  0.264
BILLS      12  3 469 331  0.076  7.334    4  0.499    4  0.496    3  0.376    4 0.5958    2  1.566    2  0.791   16 -0.039
RAVENS     10  5 452 349  0.145  7.928    7  0.314    7  0.302    4  0.357    7 0.5692    3  1.556    3  0.757   17 -0.042
EAGLES     12  3 402 283  0.032  7.133    5  0.472    5  0.468    5  0.356    5 0.5930   21  1.226    9  0.289    2  0.424
VIKINGS    13  2 396 276 -0.002  6.987    3  0.568    3  0.570    6  0.307    3 0.6060   17  1.275    8  0.305    4  0.310
BUCCANEERS  8  7 427 352  0.080  7.582   14  0.081   14  0.088    7  0.218   14 0.5259    5  1.502    5  0.537   23 -0.101
BRONCOS     9  6 363 281 -0.000  7.127   12  0.133   12  0.140    8  0.208   13 0.5275   24  1.202   10  0.110    5  0.307
CHIEFS     14  1 356 278  0.023  7.284    1  0.716    1  0.709    9  0.196    1 0.6377   27  1.123   15 -0.002    3  0.395
CHARGERS    9  6 328 274  0.030  7.399   11  0.164   11  0.164   10  0.149   10 0.5369   31  1.050   21 -0.139    1  0.436
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COMMANDERS 10  5 432 348 -0.069  6.732   10  0.204   10  0.205   11  0.143   11 0.5336    4  1.535    6  0.511   26 -0.225
STEELERS   10  5 353 299  0.003  7.231    8  0.237    8  0.240   12  0.089    8 0.5466   23  1.206   16 -0.004    8  0.183
SEAHAWKS    8  7 339 340  0.078  7.834   15  0.074   15  0.079   13  0.082   16 0.5161   11  1.290   11  0.099   12  0.064
RAMS        9  6 329 347  0.097  8.022    9  0.209    9  0.213   14  0.082    9 0.5381   18  1.270   12  0.072   10  0.091
BENGALS     7  8 423 393 -0.113  6.701   22 -0.140   22 -0.132   15  0.064   21 0.4756    1  1.630    4  0.578   31 -0.451
TEXANS      9  6 347 327 -0.020  7.255   13  0.131   13  0.137   16  0.047   12 0.5287   13  1.282   13  0.053   13  0.040
CARDINALS   7  8 344 342  0.094  7.930   17 -0.030   17 -0.012   17  0.033   17 0.4985   14  1.278   14  0.035   14  0.031
FALCONS     8  7 327 349 -0.002  7.555   16  0.048   16  0.070   18 -0.061   15 0.5190   16  1.278   17 -0.060   19 -0.063
DOLPHINS    7  8 305 329 -0.101  7.057   20 -0.114   20 -0.101   19 -0.063   22 0.4692   26  1.137   23 -0.244    9  0.118
49ERS       6  9 331 349  0.068  7.911   21 -0.123   21 -0.110   20 -0.077   20 0.4818   12  1.286   18 -0.065   21 -0.089
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAINTS      5  9 309 312 -0.132  6.353   23 -0.289   23 -0.292   21 -0.132   23 0.4538   20  1.253   22 -0.165   22 -0.100
COLTS       7  8 318 359  0.010  7.684   18 -0.054   18 -0.037   22 -0.134   18 0.4868   10  1.292   20 -0.114   24 -0.155
BEARS       4 11 283 342  0.033  7.949   24 -0.343   24 -0.348   23 -0.182   24 0.4364   30  1.080   29 -0.433   11  0.070
JETS        4 11 292 344 -0.051  7.316   25 -0.381   25 -0.388   24 -0.187   27 0.4132   25  1.173   25 -0.323   18 -0.052
COWBOYS     7  8 324 404 -0.087  7.310   19 -0.085   19 -0.069   25 -0.212   19 0.4852    7  1.376   19 -0.077   30 -0.348
PATRIOTS    3 12 259 361 -0.124  6.997   31 -0.519   31 -0.517   26 -0.283   32 0.3775   28  1.110   30 -0.498   20 -0.068
JAGUARS     3 12 277 396 -0.078  7.522   30 -0.497   30 -0.502   27 -0.307   30 0.3994   19  1.253   27 -0.338   28 -0.275
RAIDERS     3 12 264 390 -0.037  7.798   28 -0.451   28 -0.462   28 -0.326   26 0.4163   22  1.211   28 -0.413   27 -0.239
TITANS      3 12 284 417 -0.005  7.930   27 -0.441   27 -0.452   29 -0.335   29 0.4049   15  1.278   26 -0.333   29 -0.336
BROWNS      3 12 245 380 -0.048  7.725   29 -0.462   29 -0.464   30 -0.392   28 0.4063   29  1.102   31 -0.616   25 -0.168
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS    4 11 283 448 -0.133  7.305   26 -0.396   26 -0.404   31 -0.423   25 0.4183    8  1.364   24 -0.304   32 -0.543
GIANTS      2 13 215 362 -0.080  7.568   32 -0.593   32 -0.595   32 -0.513   31 0.3878   32  0.857   32 -1.018   15 -0.009

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRONCOS     9  6 363 281 -0.000  7.127   12  0.133   12  0.140    8  0.208   13 0.5275   24  1.202   10  0.110    5  0.307
CHIEFS     14  1 356 278  0.023  7.284    1  0.716    1  0.709    9  0.196    1 0.6377   27  1.123   15 -0.002    3  0.395
CHARGERS    9  6 328 274  0.030  7.399   11  0.164   11  0.164   10  0.149   10 0.5369   31  1.050   21 -0.139    1  0.436
RAIDERS     3 12 264 390 -0.037  7.798   28 -0.451   28 -0.462   28 -0.326   26 0.4163   22  1.211   28 -0.413   27 -0.239

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS      9  6 347 327 -0.020  7.255   13  0.131   13  0.137   16  0.047   12 0.5287   13  1.282   13  0.053   13  0.040
COLTS       7  8 318 359  0.010  7.684   18 -0.054   18 -0.037   22 -0.134   18 0.4868   10  1.292   20 -0.114   24 -0.155
JAGUARS     3 12 277 396 -0.078  7.522   30 -0.497   30 -0.502   27 -0.307   30 0.3994   19  1.253   27 -0.338   28 -0.275
TITANS      3 12 284 417 -0.005  7.930   27 -0.441   27 -0.452   29 -0.335   29 0.4049   15  1.278   26 -0.333   29 -0.336

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     10  5 452 349  0.145  7.928    7  0.314    7  0.302    4  0.357    7 0.5692    3  1.556    3  0.757   17 -0.042
STEELERS   10  5 353 299  0.003  7.231    8  0.237    8  0.240   12  0.089    8 0.5466   23  1.206   16 -0.004    8  0.183
BENGALS     7  8 423 393 -0.113  6.701   22 -0.140   22 -0.132   15  0.064   21 0.4756    1  1.630    4  0.578   31 -0.451
BROWNS      3 12 245 380 -0.048  7.725   29 -0.462   29 -0.464   30 -0.392   28 0.4063   29  1.102   31 -0.616   25 -0.168

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      12  3 469 331  0.076  7.334    4  0.499    4  0.496    3  0.376    4 0.5958    2  1.566    2  0.791   16 -0.039
DOLPHINS    7  8 305 329 -0.101  7.057   20 -0.114   20 -0.101   19 -0.063   22 0.4692   26  1.137   23 -0.244    9  0.118
JETS        4 11 292 344 -0.051  7.316   25 -0.381   25 -0.388   24 -0.187   27 0.4132   25  1.173   25 -0.323   18 -0.052
PATRIOTS    3 12 259 361 -0.124  6.997   31 -0.519   31 -0.517   26 -0.283   32 0.3775   28  1.110   30 -0.498   20 -0.068

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SEAHAWKS    8  7 339 340  0.078  7.834   15  0.074   15  0.079   13  0.082   16 0.5161   11  1.290   11  0.099   12  0.064
RAMS        9  6 329 347  0.097  8.022    9  0.209    9  0.213   14  0.082    9 0.5381   18  1.270   12  0.072   10  0.091
CARDINALS   7  8 344 342  0.094  7.930   17 -0.030   17 -0.012   17  0.033   17 0.4985   14  1.278   14  0.035   14  0.031
49ERS       6  9 331 349  0.068  7.911   21 -0.123   21 -0.110   20 -0.077   20 0.4818   12  1.286   18 -0.065   21 -0.089

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS  8  7 427 352  0.080  7.582   14  0.081   14  0.088    7  0.218   14 0.5259    5  1.502    5  0.537   23 -0.101
FALCONS     8  7 327 349 -0.002  7.555   16  0.048   16  0.070   18 -0.061   15 0.5190   16  1.278   17 -0.060   19 -0.063
SAINTS      5  9 309 312 -0.132  6.353   23 -0.289   23 -0.292   21 -0.132   23 0.4538   20  1.253   22 -0.165   22 -0.100
PANTHERS    4 11 283 448 -0.133  7.305   26 -0.396   26 -0.404   31 -0.423   25 0.4183    8  1.364   24 -0.304   32 -0.543

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      13  2 493 299  0.182  7.805    2  0.662    2  0.650    1  0.569    2 0.6305    6  1.467    1  0.835    6  0.303
PACKERS    10  4 379 287  0.182  7.487    6  0.408    6  0.403    2  0.380    6 0.5873    9  1.362    7  0.497    7  0.264
VIKINGS    13  2 396 276 -0.002  6.987    3  0.568    3  0.570    6  0.307    3 0.6060   17  1.275    8  0.305    4  0.310
BEARS       4 11 283 342  0.033  7.949   24 -0.343   24 -0.348   23 -0.182   24 0.4364   30  1.080   29 -0.433   11  0.070

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     12  3 402 283  0.032  7.133    5  0.472    5  0.468    5  0.356    5 0.5930   21  1.226    9  0.289    2  0.424
COMMANDERS 10  5 432 348 -0.069  6.732   10  0.204   10  0.205   11  0.143   11 0.5336    4  1.535    6  0.511   26 -0.225
COWBOYS     7  8 324 404 -0.087  7.310   19 -0.085   19 -0.069   25 -0.212   19 0.4852    7  1.376   19 -0.077   30 -0.348
GIANTS      2 13 215 362 -0.080  7.568   32 -0.593   32 -0.595   32 -0.513   31 0.3878   32  0.857   32 -1.018   15 -0.009

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  40 19 0.678    1  0.485
AFC WEST   35 25 0.583    2  0.124
NFC WEST   30 30 0.500    3  0.068
AFC NORTH  30 30 0.500    4  0.054
NFC EAST   31 29 0.517    5 -0.093
AFC EAST   26 34 0.433    6 -0.113
NFC SOUTH  25 34 0.424    7 -0.190
AFC SOUTH  22 38 0.367    8 -0.302

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.120 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 23 05:30:11 2024
games through: Sun Dec 22 2024

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