Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      9 1 336 177  0.209  5.011    2  0.568    2  0.584    1  0.617    1 0.6442   13  1.342    1  0.733    3  0.500
BILLS      9 2 320 214  0.080  5.320    3  0.459    3  0.458    2  0.368    3 0.6067    8  1.377    4  0.534    9  0.203
VIKINGS    8 2 244 170  0.103  4.910    4  0.425    4  0.419    3  0.290    4 0.5976   23  1.124   13  0.122    4  0.458
EAGLES     8 2 259 179 -0.105  4.172    5  0.344    6  0.323    4  0.273    6 0.5702   22  1.146   12  0.132    5  0.415
RAVENS     7 4 334 271  0.110  5.592   11  0.217   11  0.203    5  0.254   11 0.5460    2  1.574    2  0.710   23 -0.201
CHIEFS     9 1 240 191  0.165  5.313    1  0.582    1  0.601    6  0.236    2 0.6383   24  1.121   14  0.063    6  0.409
CHARGERS   7 3 220 145 -0.061  4.296   10  0.226   10  0.213    7  0.234   10 0.5464   32  0.893   23 -0.204    1  0.672
CARDINALS  6 4 238 220  0.239  5.666    9  0.247    9  0.234    8  0.218    7 0.5572   14  1.333    8  0.322   10  0.115
PACKERS    7 3 250 213  0.185  5.421    6  0.342    5  0.339    9  0.204    5 0.5891   12  1.354    7  0.337   14  0.071
BRONCOS    6 5 235 183  0.053  5.383   13  0.085   13  0.072   10  0.192   14 0.5170   30  0.944   21 -0.190    2  0.574
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COMMANDERS 7 4 308 243 -0.015  5.037   12  0.168   12  0.165   11  0.166   12 0.5223    4  1.466    6  0.460   21 -0.128
STEELERS   8 3 252 186 -0.049  4.900    7  0.270    7  0.251   12  0.163    9 0.5534   25  1.108   18 -0.026    7  0.352
TEXANS     7 4 258 236  0.104  5.706    8  0.254    8  0.239   13  0.148    8 0.5541   18  1.288   10  0.191   12  0.105
BUCCANEERS 4 6 279 266  0.233  5.700   18 -0.034   18 -0.009   14  0.127   16 0.5067    3  1.556    3  0.555   26 -0.300
49ERS      5 5 250 222  0.065  5.038   16  0.013   16  0.024   15  0.097   17 0.5059   10  1.361    9  0.240   17 -0.047
SEAHAWKS   5 5 230 238  0.029  4.988   17 -0.015   17  0.004   16  0.013   18 0.5025    9  1.371   11  0.169   22 -0.144
COLTS      5 6 236 250  0.072  5.742   19 -0.046   19 -0.026   17 -0.003   19 0.4988   17  1.305   15  0.063   18 -0.069
BENGALS    4 7 297 296 -0.085  5.076   23 -0.257   23 -0.246   18 -0.018   24 0.4442    1  1.606    5  0.487   29 -0.523
RAMS       5 5 213 239  0.056  5.230   15  0.022   15  0.037   19 -0.050   15 0.5103   19  1.282   17 -0.015   19 -0.085
JETS       3 8 204 242  0.097  5.927   24 -0.279   24 -0.267   20 -0.084   25 0.4343   21  1.157   24 -0.212   15  0.044
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BEARS      4 6 194 187 -0.169  4.367   21 -0.229   21 -0.215   21 -0.137   22 0.4504   29  0.961   28 -0.500    8  0.225
DOLPHINS   4 6 181 221 -0.121  4.706   20 -0.192   20 -0.171   22 -0.139   20 0.4586   27  1.054   27 -0.393   11  0.115
SAINTS     4 7 262 260 -0.218  4.654   25 -0.309   25 -0.308   23 -0.167   21 0.4507    7  1.383   16  0.007   27 -0.340
FALCONS    6 5 244 274 -0.051  5.402   14  0.046   14  0.065   24 -0.193   13 0.5181   16  1.308   20 -0.123   25 -0.263
TITANS     2 8 170 263  0.073  5.596   26 -0.345   26 -0.342   25 -0.249   26 0.4216   20  1.239   26 -0.271   24 -0.227
PATRIOTS   3 8 182 248 -0.169  4.861   29 -0.375   29 -0.378   26 -0.262   32 0.3923   28  1.023   31 -0.552   16  0.028
JAGUARS    2 9 208 316  0.027  6.027   30 -0.394   30 -0.409   27 -0.279   27 0.4193    5  1.393   19 -0.092   28 -0.467
GIANTS     2 8 156 222 -0.144  4.814   32 -0.422   32 -0.444   28 -0.319   31 0.3966   31  0.919   32 -0.728   13  0.090
BROWNS     3 8 186 267 -0.180  5.056   28 -0.367   28 -0.370   29 -0.325   29 0.4047   26  1.094   30 -0.530   20 -0.120
RAIDERS    2 8 187 285 -0.141  4.969   31 -0.405   31 -0.424   30 -0.387   28 0.4051    6  1.392   22 -0.200   31 -0.573
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COWBOYS    3 7 187 293 -0.025  5.244   22 -0.251   22 -0.235   31 -0.389   23 0.4476   11  1.359   25 -0.249   30 -0.529
PANTHERS   3 7 167 310 -0.288  4.417   27 -0.348   27 -0.349   32 -0.582   30 0.4034   15  1.310   29 -0.509   32 -0.655

AFC WEST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     9 1 240 191  0.165  5.313    1  0.582    1  0.601    6  0.236    2 0.6383   24  1.121   14  0.063    6  0.409
CHARGERS   7 3 220 145 -0.061  4.296   10  0.226   10  0.213    7  0.234   10 0.5464   32  0.893   23 -0.204    1  0.672
BRONCOS    6 5 235 183  0.053  5.383   13  0.085   13  0.072   10  0.192   14 0.5170   30  0.944   21 -0.190    2  0.574
RAIDERS    2 8 187 285 -0.141  4.969   31 -0.405   31 -0.424   30 -0.387   28 0.4051    6  1.392   22 -0.200   31 -0.573

AFC SOUTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS     7 4 258 236  0.104  5.706    8  0.254    8  0.239   13  0.148    8 0.5541   18  1.288   10  0.191   12  0.105
COLTS      5 6 236 250  0.072  5.742   19 -0.046   19 -0.026   17 -0.003   19 0.4988   17  1.305   15  0.063   18 -0.069
TITANS     2 8 170 263  0.073  5.596   26 -0.345   26 -0.342   25 -0.249   26 0.4216   20  1.239   26 -0.271   24 -0.227
JAGUARS    2 9 208 316  0.027  6.027   30 -0.394   30 -0.409   27 -0.279   27 0.4193    5  1.393   19 -0.092   28 -0.467

AFC NORTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     7 4 334 271  0.110  5.592   11  0.217   11  0.203    5  0.254   11 0.5460    2  1.574    2  0.710   23 -0.201
STEELERS   8 3 252 186 -0.049  4.900    7  0.270    7  0.251   12  0.163    9 0.5534   25  1.108   18 -0.026    7  0.352
BENGALS    4 7 297 296 -0.085  5.076   23 -0.257   23 -0.246   18 -0.018   24 0.4442    1  1.606    5  0.487   29 -0.523
BROWNS     3 8 186 267 -0.180  5.056   28 -0.367   28 -0.370   29 -0.325   29 0.4047   26  1.094   30 -0.530   20 -0.120

AFC EAST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      9 2 320 214  0.080  5.320    3  0.459    3  0.458    2  0.368    3 0.6067    8  1.377    4  0.534    9  0.203
JETS       3 8 204 242  0.097  5.927   24 -0.279   24 -0.267   20 -0.084   25 0.4343   21  1.157   24 -0.212   15  0.044
DOLPHINS   4 6 181 221 -0.121  4.706   20 -0.192   20 -0.171   22 -0.139   20 0.4586   27  1.054   27 -0.393   11  0.115
PATRIOTS   3 8 182 248 -0.169  4.861   29 -0.375   29 -0.378   26 -0.262   32 0.3923   28  1.023   31 -0.552   16  0.028

NFC WEST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CARDINALS  6 4 238 220  0.239  5.666    9  0.247    9  0.234    8  0.218    7 0.5572   14  1.333    8  0.322   10  0.115
49ERS      5 5 250 222  0.065  5.038   16  0.013   16  0.024   15  0.097   17 0.5059   10  1.361    9  0.240   17 -0.047
SEAHAWKS   5 5 230 238  0.029  4.988   17 -0.015   17  0.004   16  0.013   18 0.5025    9  1.371   11  0.169   22 -0.144
RAMS       5 5 213 239  0.056  5.230   15  0.022   15  0.037   19 -0.050   15 0.5103   19  1.282   17 -0.015   19 -0.085

NFC SOUTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS 4 6 279 266  0.233  5.700   18 -0.034   18 -0.009   14  0.127   16 0.5067    3  1.556    3  0.555   26 -0.300
SAINTS     4 7 262 260 -0.218  4.654   25 -0.309   25 -0.308   23 -0.167   21 0.4507    7  1.383   16  0.007   27 -0.340
FALCONS    6 5 244 274 -0.051  5.402   14  0.046   14  0.065   24 -0.193   13 0.5181   16  1.308   20 -0.123   25 -0.263
PANTHERS   3 7 167 310 -0.288  4.417   27 -0.348   27 -0.349   32 -0.582   30 0.4034   15  1.310   29 -0.509   32 -0.655

NFC NORTH
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      9 1 336 177  0.209  5.011    2  0.568    2  0.584    1  0.617    1 0.6442   13  1.342    1  0.733    3  0.500
VIKINGS    8 2 244 170  0.103  4.910    4  0.425    4  0.419    3  0.290    4 0.5976   23  1.124   13  0.122    4  0.458
PACKERS    7 3 250 213  0.185  5.421    6  0.342    5  0.339    9  0.204    5 0.5891   12  1.354    7  0.337   14  0.071
BEARS      4 6 194 187 -0.169  4.367   21 -0.229   21 -0.215   21 -0.137   22 0.4504   29  0.961   28 -0.500    8  0.225

NFC EAST
                                       STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM       W L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     8 2 259 179 -0.105  4.172    5  0.344    6  0.323    4  0.273    6 0.5702   22  1.146   12  0.132    5  0.415
COMMANDERS 7 4 308 243 -0.015  5.037   12  0.168   12  0.165   11  0.166   12 0.5223    4  1.466    6  0.460   21 -0.128
GIANTS     2 8 156 222 -0.144  4.814   32 -0.422   32 -0.444   28 -0.319   31 0.3966   31  0.919   32 -0.728   13  0.090
COWBOYS    3 7 187 293 -0.025  5.244   22 -0.251   22 -0.235   31 -0.389   23 0.4476   11  1.359   25 -0.249   30 -0.529

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  28 12 0.700    1  0.497
AFC WEST   24 17 0.585    2  0.152
NFC WEST   21 19 0.525    3  0.141
AFC NORTH  22 22 0.500    4  0.027
AFC EAST   19 24 0.442    5 -0.103
NFC EAST   20 21 0.488    6 -0.129
AFC SOUTH  16 27 0.372    7 -0.204
NFC SOUTH  17 25 0.405    8 -0.345

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.120 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.015 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Nov 22 05:30:10 2024
games through: Thu Nov 21 2024

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