Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BENGALS     8  8 453 417 -0.072  7.414   18 -0.081   18 -0.066   14  0.096   18 0.4913    1  1.627    6  0.614   30 -0.421
BILLS      13  3 509 345  0.059  7.685    4  0.572    4  0.570    5  0.457    5 0.5932    2  1.573    2  0.890   15  0.023
LIONS      14  2 533 333  0.174  8.332    2  0.778    2  0.755    1  0.591    2 0.6285    3  1.538    1  0.971    8  0.211
COMMANDERS 11  5 462 372 -0.082  7.148    9  0.259    9  0.262   11  0.134   10 0.5438    4  1.534    7  0.509   23 -0.240
RAVENS     11  5 483 351  0.177  8.601    7  0.391    7  0.390    3  0.526    6 0.5816    5  1.508    3  0.860   10  0.192
BUCCANEERS  9  7 475 366  0.061  7.870   13  0.111   13  0.125    8  0.306   12 0.5301    6  1.498    4  0.627   16 -0.014
COLTS       7  9 351 404 -0.074  7.794   22 -0.141   22 -0.148   22 -0.240   22 0.4678    7  1.401   19 -0.061   29 -0.418
PANTHERS    4 12 297 496 -0.114  8.073   27 -0.465   27 -0.471   32 -0.525   26 0.4163    8  1.382   24 -0.373   32 -0.677
49ERS       6 10 365 389  0.120  8.796   21 -0.134   21 -0.138   18 -0.039   20 0.4802    9  1.362   12  0.084   21 -0.163
COWBOYS     7  9 331 445 -0.070  8.087   20 -0.131   20 -0.112   25 -0.323   19 0.4852   10  1.358   21 -0.205   31 -0.440
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACKERS    11  5 438 314  0.186  8.509    6  0.417    6  0.417    2  0.528    7 0.5776   11  1.335    5  0.615    4  0.441
VIKINGS    14  2 423 301  0.026  7.654    3  0.686    3  0.685    6  0.342    3 0.6104   12  1.296    9  0.375    6  0.309
FALCONS     8  8 351 379  0.019  8.233   16  0.020   16  0.035   19 -0.047   16 0.5120   13  1.277   17 -0.040   18 -0.055
TITANS      3 13 297 437 -0.060  8.209   30 -0.563   30 -0.570   28 -0.411   31 0.3933   14  1.241   27 -0.451   28 -0.370
JAGUARS     4 12 297 409 -0.143  7.670   28 -0.511   28 -0.520   26 -0.325   28 0.4054   15  1.231   25 -0.378   27 -0.272
CARDINALS   7  9 353 355  0.104  8.588   17 -0.074   17 -0.056   16  0.017   17 0.4920   16  1.229   16 -0.039   14  0.073
TEXANS      9  7 349 358 -0.026  7.903   15  0.086   15  0.097   20 -0.079   14 0.5177   17  1.225   20 -0.140   17 -0.018
EAGLES     13  3 443 290  0.015  7.403    5  0.542    5  0.539    4  0.469    4 0.5987   18  1.223    8  0.406    1  0.533
RAMS       10  6 342 356  0.094  8.558    8  0.273    8  0.279   12  0.103    9 0.5439   19  1.217   13  0.032   11  0.175
RAIDERS     4 12 289 400 -0.011  8.419   24 -0.414   24 -0.420   23 -0.242   24 0.4307   20  1.211   23 -0.321   22 -0.163
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
STEELERS   10  6 363 328  0.032  8.013   11  0.212   11  0.219   15  0.033    8 0.5443   21  1.202   18 -0.059   13  0.124
SEAHAWKS    9  7 345 343  0.072  8.354   12  0.124   12  0.137   13  0.102   13 0.5205   22  1.201   15  0.010    9  0.194
BRONCOS     9  7 387 311  0.030  7.834   14  0.099   14  0.109   10  0.219   15 0.5163   23  1.195   11  0.119    5  0.319
SAINTS      5 11 319 371 -0.133  7.560   23 -0.408   23 -0.410   27 -0.359   23 0.4402   24  1.182   28 -0.475   25 -0.242
JETS        4 12 306 384 -0.042  8.002   26 -0.457   26 -0.465   24 -0.264   27 0.4121   25  1.178   26 -0.386   19 -0.142
PATRIOTS    3 13 266 401 -0.127  7.579   32 -0.599   32 -0.606   29 -0.427   32 0.3750   26  1.134   30 -0.604   26 -0.250
CHIEFS     15  1 385 288  0.079  8.075    1  0.871    1  0.851    7  0.317    1 0.6438   27  1.120   10  0.122    3  0.511
DOLPHINS    8  8 325 332 -0.136  7.273   19 -0.100   19 -0.085   17 -0.004   21 0.4739   28  1.099   22 -0.225    7  0.216
CHARGERS   10  6 368 281  0.029  7.795   10  0.215   10  0.220    9  0.276   11 0.5374   29  1.072   14  0.023    2  0.528
BROWNS      3 13 248 400 -0.064  8.231   29 -0.545   29 -0.551   31 -0.510   30 0.4039   30  1.059   31 -0.779   24 -0.241
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GIANTS      3 13 260 395 -0.120  7.869   31 -0.594   31 -0.600   30 -0.501   29 0.4049   31  0.991   32 -0.849   20 -0.153
BEARS       4 12 286 348  0.004  8.363   25 -0.437   25 -0.445   21 -0.218   25 0.4280   32  0.984   29 -0.574   12  0.139

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAIDERS     4 12 289 400 -0.011  8.419   24 -0.414   24 -0.420   23 -0.242   24 0.4307   20  1.211   23 -0.321   22 -0.163
BRONCOS     9  7 387 311  0.030  7.834   14  0.099   14  0.109   10  0.219   15 0.5163   23  1.195   11  0.119    5  0.319
CHIEFS     15  1 385 288  0.079  8.075    1  0.871    1  0.851    7  0.317    1 0.6438   27  1.120   10  0.122    3  0.511
CHARGERS   10  6 368 281  0.029  7.795   10  0.215   10  0.220    9  0.276   11 0.5374   29  1.072   14  0.023    2  0.528

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COLTS       7  9 351 404 -0.074  7.794   22 -0.141   22 -0.148   22 -0.240   22 0.4678    7  1.401   19 -0.061   29 -0.418
TITANS      3 13 297 437 -0.060  8.209   30 -0.563   30 -0.570   28 -0.411   31 0.3933   14  1.241   27 -0.451   28 -0.370
JAGUARS     4 12 297 409 -0.143  7.670   28 -0.511   28 -0.520   26 -0.325   28 0.4054   15  1.231   25 -0.378   27 -0.272
TEXANS      9  7 349 358 -0.026  7.903   15  0.086   15  0.097   20 -0.079   14 0.5177   17  1.225   20 -0.140   17 -0.018

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BENGALS     8  8 453 417 -0.072  7.414   18 -0.081   18 -0.066   14  0.096   18 0.4913    1  1.627    6  0.614   30 -0.421
RAVENS     11  5 483 351  0.177  8.601    7  0.391    7  0.390    3  0.526    6 0.5816    5  1.508    3  0.860   10  0.192
STEELERS   10  6 363 328  0.032  8.013   11  0.212   11  0.219   15  0.033    8 0.5443   21  1.202   18 -0.059   13  0.124
BROWNS      3 13 248 400 -0.064  8.231   29 -0.545   29 -0.551   31 -0.510   30 0.4039   30  1.059   31 -0.779   24 -0.241

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      13  3 509 345  0.059  7.685    4  0.572    4  0.570    5  0.457    5 0.5932    2  1.573    2  0.890   15  0.023
JETS        4 12 306 384 -0.042  8.002   26 -0.457   26 -0.465   24 -0.264   27 0.4121   25  1.178   26 -0.386   19 -0.142
PATRIOTS    3 13 266 401 -0.127  7.579   32 -0.599   32 -0.606   29 -0.427   32 0.3750   26  1.134   30 -0.604   26 -0.250
DOLPHINS    8  8 325 332 -0.136  7.273   19 -0.100   19 -0.085   17 -0.004   21 0.4739   28  1.099   22 -0.225    7  0.216

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
49ERS       6 10 365 389  0.120  8.796   21 -0.134   21 -0.138   18 -0.039   20 0.4802    9  1.362   12  0.084   21 -0.163
CARDINALS   7  9 353 355  0.104  8.588   17 -0.074   17 -0.056   16  0.017   17 0.4920   16  1.229   16 -0.039   14  0.073
RAMS       10  6 342 356  0.094  8.558    8  0.273    8  0.279   12  0.103    9 0.5439   19  1.217   13  0.032   11  0.175
SEAHAWKS    9  7 345 343  0.072  8.354   12  0.124   12  0.137   13  0.102   13 0.5205   22  1.201   15  0.010    9  0.194

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS  9  7 475 366  0.061  7.870   13  0.111   13  0.125    8  0.306   12 0.5301    6  1.498    4  0.627   16 -0.014
PANTHERS    4 12 297 496 -0.114  8.073   27 -0.465   27 -0.471   32 -0.525   26 0.4163    8  1.382   24 -0.373   32 -0.677
FALCONS     8  8 351 379  0.019  8.233   16  0.020   16  0.035   19 -0.047   16 0.5120   13  1.277   17 -0.040   18 -0.055
SAINTS      5 11 319 371 -0.133  7.560   23 -0.408   23 -0.410   27 -0.359   23 0.4402   24  1.182   28 -0.475   25 -0.242

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      14  2 533 333  0.174  8.332    2  0.778    2  0.755    1  0.591    2 0.6285    3  1.538    1  0.971    8  0.211
PACKERS    11  5 438 314  0.186  8.509    6  0.417    6  0.417    2  0.528    7 0.5776   11  1.335    5  0.615    4  0.441
VIKINGS    14  2 423 301  0.026  7.654    3  0.686    3  0.685    6  0.342    3 0.6104   12  1.296    9  0.375    6  0.309
BEARS       4 12 286 348  0.004  8.363   25 -0.437   25 -0.445   21 -0.218   25 0.4280   32  0.984   29 -0.574   12  0.139

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COMMANDERS 11  5 462 372 -0.082  7.148    9  0.259    9  0.262   11  0.134   10 0.5438    4  1.534    7  0.509   23 -0.240
COWBOYS     7  9 331 445 -0.070  8.087   20 -0.131   20 -0.112   25 -0.323   19 0.4852   10  1.358   21 -0.205   31 -0.440
EAGLES     13  3 443 290  0.015  7.403    5  0.542    5  0.539    4  0.469    4 0.5987   18  1.223    8  0.406    1  0.533
GIANTS      3 13 260 395 -0.120  7.869   31 -0.594   31 -0.600   30 -0.501   29 0.4049   31  0.991   32 -0.849   20 -0.153

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  43 21 0.672    1  0.492
AFC WEST   38 26 0.594    2  0.209
NFC WEST   32 32 0.500    3  0.083
AFC NORTH  32 32 0.500    4  0.067
NFC EAST   34 30 0.531    5 -0.093
AFC EAST   28 36 0.438    6 -0.134
NFC SOUTH  26 38 0.406    7 -0.238
AFC SOUTH  23 41 0.359    8 -0.373

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.118 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Dec 31 05:30:13 2024
games through: Mon Dec 30 2024

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