Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     16  2 408 340  0.043  9.107    1  0.740    1  0.736   12  0.132    1 0.6263   29  1.107   19 -0.084    3  0.347
LIONS      15  3 595 387  0.149  9.472    2  0.665    2  0.657    2  0.519    2 0.6168    2  1.559    1  0.925   13  0.113
EAGLES     16  3 513 335  0.007  8.840    3  0.614    3  0.603    4  0.446    3 0.6054   22  1.202    8  0.350    1  0.542
BILLS      15  4 583 400  0.080  9.422    4  0.552    4  0.540    3  0.449    5 0.5848    4  1.514    3  0.787   14  0.111
VIKINGS    14  4 441 359  0.060  9.127    5  0.536    5  0.525   11  0.150    4 0.5866   16  1.240   10  0.103    8  0.197
COMMANDERS 14  5 553 442  0.007  9.099    6  0.430    6  0.417    7  0.236    7 0.5718    3  1.528    4  0.596   21 -0.123
RAVENS     13  6 571 402  0.157 10.069    7  0.407    7  0.375    1  0.533    6 0.5765    5  1.492    2  0.839    6  0.227
PACKERS    11  7 470 360  0.154  9.589    8  0.285    8  0.255    5  0.355    8 0.5487   12  1.322    7  0.419    5  0.291
RAMS       11  8 416 423  0.122 10.402    9  0.220    9  0.212    9  0.163    9 0.5362   15  1.241    9  0.117    7  0.208
SEAHAWKS   10  7 375 368  0.072  8.946   10  0.185   10  0.172   13  0.105   11 0.5281   19  1.224   14  0.037   10  0.172
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHARGERS   11  7 414 333 -0.018  8.638   11  0.180   11  0.167   10  0.158   10 0.5297   27  1.131   16 -0.029    4  0.345
TEXANS     11  8 418 407 -0.020  9.403   12  0.129   12  0.120   16  0.009   15 0.5225   20  1.221   18 -0.062   15  0.080
STEELERS   10  8 394 375  0.052  9.290   13  0.122   13  0.114   17 -0.011   12 0.5254   24  1.152   20 -0.171   11  0.149
BRONCOS    10  8 432 342  0.058  9.042   14  0.117   14  0.107    6  0.259   14 0.5229   25  1.148   11  0.095    2  0.424
BUCCANEERS 10  8 522 408  0.008  8.662   15  0.086   15  0.079    8  0.227   13 0.5233    6  1.455    6  0.479   17 -0.024
BENGALS     9  8 472 434 -0.057  8.036   16  0.003   16 -0.005   14  0.094   16 0.5042    1  1.603    5  0.570   30 -0.381
CARDINALS   8  9 400 379  0.089  9.034   17 -0.010   17 -0.016   15  0.077   17 0.4986   13  1.275   13  0.077   16  0.078
FALCONS     8  9 389 423 -0.075  8.249   18 -0.081   18 -0.089   20 -0.128   18 0.4940   10  1.350   15 -0.025   24 -0.230
COLTS       8  9 377 427 -0.104  8.127   19 -0.104   19 -0.112   23 -0.237   20 0.4696    9  1.409   17 -0.052   31 -0.422
DOLPHINS    8  9 345 364 -0.133  7.843   20 -0.127   20 -0.136   18 -0.062   22 0.4610   26  1.131   23 -0.249   12  0.124
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COWBOYS     7 10 350 468 -0.056  8.688   21 -0.149   21 -0.156   25 -0.288   19 0.4796   11  1.335   21 -0.207   29 -0.369
49ERS       6 11 389 436  0.107  9.392   22 -0.158   22 -0.182   19 -0.113   21 0.4685    8  1.416   12  0.082   27 -0.309
BEARS       5 12 310 370  0.036  9.087   23 -0.303   23 -0.326   21 -0.158   23 0.4430   31  1.000   29 -0.502    9  0.185
JETS        5 12 338 404 -0.044  8.473   24 -0.359   24 -0.385   22 -0.195   26 0.4221   21  1.219   24 -0.269   20 -0.121
SAINTS      5 12 338 398 -0.123  8.151   25 -0.406   26 -0.435   28 -0.329   24 0.4332   23  1.171   27 -0.465   22 -0.193
PANTHERS    5 12 341 534 -0.121  8.481   26 -0.407   25 -0.398   31 -0.455   25 0.4310    7  1.448   22 -0.214   32 -0.695
RAIDERS     4 13 309 434 -0.036  8.856   27 -0.454   27 -0.456   24 -0.276   27 0.4208   14  1.243   25 -0.319   25 -0.233
PATRIOTS    4 13 289 417 -0.078  8.401   28 -0.473   28 -0.475   26 -0.300   31 0.3962   28  1.111   30 -0.510   19 -0.089
JAGUARS     4 13 320 435 -0.149  8.103   29 -0.534   29 -0.549   27 -0.304   30 0.3979   17  1.235   26 -0.358   26 -0.250
BROWNS      3 14 258 435 -0.047  8.989   30 -0.545   30 -0.556   32 -0.508   29 0.4027   30  1.054   32 -0.788   23 -0.228
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TITANS      3 14 311 460 -0.067  8.683   31 -0.575   31 -0.588   29 -0.405   32 0.3896   18  1.227   28 -0.469   28 -0.341
GIANTS      3 14 273 415 -0.086  8.630   32 -0.585   32 -0.598   30 -0.427   28 0.4080   32  0.988   31 -0.785   18 -0.070

AFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CHIEFS     16  2 408 340  0.043  9.107    1  0.740    1  0.736   12  0.132    1 0.6263   29  1.107   19 -0.084    3  0.347
CHARGERS   11  7 414 333 -0.018  8.638   11  0.180   11  0.167   10  0.158   10 0.5297   27  1.131   16 -0.029    4  0.345
BRONCOS    10  8 432 342  0.058  9.042   14  0.117   14  0.107    6  0.259   14 0.5229   25  1.148   11  0.095    2  0.424
RAIDERS     4 13 309 434 -0.036  8.856   27 -0.454   27 -0.456   24 -0.276   27 0.4208   14  1.243   25 -0.319   25 -0.233

AFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TEXANS     11  8 418 407 -0.020  9.403   12  0.129   12  0.120   16  0.009   15 0.5225   20  1.221   18 -0.062   15  0.080
COLTS       8  9 377 427 -0.104  8.127   19 -0.104   19 -0.112   23 -0.237   20 0.4696    9  1.409   17 -0.052   31 -0.422
JAGUARS     4 13 320 435 -0.149  8.103   29 -0.534   29 -0.549   27 -0.304   30 0.3979   17  1.235   26 -0.358   26 -0.250
TITANS      3 14 311 460 -0.067  8.683   31 -0.575   31 -0.588   29 -0.405   32 0.3896   18  1.227   28 -0.469   28 -0.341

AFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAVENS     13  6 571 402  0.157 10.069    7  0.407    7  0.375    1  0.533    6 0.5765    5  1.492    2  0.839    6  0.227
STEELERS   10  8 394 375  0.052  9.290   13  0.122   13  0.114   17 -0.011   12 0.5254   24  1.152   20 -0.171   11  0.149
BENGALS     9  8 472 434 -0.057  8.036   16  0.003   16 -0.005   14  0.094   16 0.5042    1  1.603    5  0.570   30 -0.381
BROWNS      3 14 258 435 -0.047  8.989   30 -0.545   30 -0.556   32 -0.508   29 0.4027   30  1.054   32 -0.788   23 -0.228

AFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BILLS      15  4 583 400  0.080  9.422    4  0.552    4  0.540    3  0.449    5 0.5848    4  1.514    3  0.787   14  0.111
DOLPHINS    8  9 345 364 -0.133  7.843   20 -0.127   20 -0.136   18 -0.062   22 0.4610   26  1.131   23 -0.249   12  0.124
JETS        5 12 338 404 -0.044  8.473   24 -0.359   24 -0.385   22 -0.195   26 0.4221   21  1.219   24 -0.269   20 -0.121
PATRIOTS    4 13 289 417 -0.078  8.401   28 -0.473   28 -0.475   26 -0.300   31 0.3962   28  1.111   30 -0.510   19 -0.089

NFC WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAMS       11  8 416 423  0.122 10.402    9  0.220    9  0.212    9  0.163    9 0.5362   15  1.241    9  0.117    7  0.208
SEAHAWKS   10  7 375 368  0.072  8.946   10  0.185   10  0.172   13  0.105   11 0.5281   19  1.224   14  0.037   10  0.172
CARDINALS   8  9 400 379  0.089  9.034   17 -0.010   17 -0.016   15  0.077   17 0.4986   13  1.275   13  0.077   16  0.078
49ERS       6 11 389 436  0.107  9.392   22 -0.158   22 -0.182   19 -0.113   21 0.4685    8  1.416   12  0.082   27 -0.309

NFC SOUTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCCANEERS 10  8 522 408  0.008  8.662   15  0.086   15  0.079    8  0.227   13 0.5233    6  1.455    6  0.479   17 -0.024
FALCONS     8  9 389 423 -0.075  8.249   18 -0.081   18 -0.089   20 -0.128   18 0.4940   10  1.350   15 -0.025   24 -0.230
SAINTS      5 12 338 398 -0.123  8.151   25 -0.406   26 -0.435   28 -0.329   24 0.4332   23  1.171   27 -0.465   22 -0.193
PANTHERS    5 12 341 534 -0.121  8.481   26 -0.407   25 -0.398   31 -0.455   25 0.4310    7  1.448   22 -0.214   32 -0.695

NFC NORTH
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIONS      15  3 595 387  0.149  9.472    2  0.665    2  0.657    2  0.519    2 0.6168    2  1.559    1  0.925   13  0.113
VIKINGS    14  4 441 359  0.060  9.127    5  0.536    5  0.525   11  0.150    4 0.5866   16  1.240   10  0.103    8  0.197
PACKERS    11  7 470 360  0.154  9.589    8  0.285    8  0.255    5  0.355    8 0.5487   12  1.322    7  0.419    5  0.291
BEARS       5 12 310 370  0.036  9.087   23 -0.303   23 -0.326   21 -0.158   23 0.4430   31  1.000   29 -0.502    9  0.185

NFC EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM        W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EAGLES     16  3 513 335  0.007  8.840    3  0.614    3  0.603    4  0.446    3 0.6054   22  1.202    8  0.350    1  0.542
COMMANDERS 14  5 553 442  0.007  9.099    6  0.430    6  0.417    7  0.236    7 0.5718    3  1.528    4  0.596   21 -0.123
COWBOYS     7 10 350 468 -0.056  8.688   21 -0.149   21 -0.156   25 -0.288   19 0.4796   11  1.335   21 -0.207   29 -0.369
GIANTS      3 14 273 415 -0.086  8.630   32 -0.585   32 -0.598   30 -0.427   28 0.4080   32  0.988   31 -0.785   18 -0.070

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  45 26 0.634    1  0.403
AFC WEST   41 30 0.577    2  0.131
NFC WEST   35 35 0.500    3  0.096
AFC NORTH  35 36 0.493    4  0.054
NFC EAST   40 32 0.556    5 -0.057
AFC EAST   32 38 0.457    6 -0.103
NFC SOUTH  28 41 0.406    7 -0.274
AFC SOUTH  26 44 0.371    8 -0.363

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.139 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.015 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Jan 20 05:30:10 2025
games through: Sun Jan 19 2025

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