Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       37 16 6239 5929  0.011 25.466    1  0.330    1  0.332    1  0.258    1 0.5471   14  3.972    5  0.293    6  0.223
NUGGETS       37 17 6309 6102 -0.009 25.737    2  0.302    2  0.306    3  0.201    2 0.5418   12  3.975    6  0.251   11  0.151
BUCKS         36 17 6056 5928 -0.009 25.396    3  0.287    3  0.290    8  0.100    3 0.5405   21  3.951   16  0.026    9  0.175
76ERS         34 18 5958 5768 -0.038 24.243    4  0.227    4  0.223    5  0.149    4 0.5315   25  3.928   19 -0.038    3  0.337
NETS          32 20 5949 5838  0.026 25.633    5  0.206    5  0.203    6  0.109    5 0.5291   20  3.956   12  0.063   10  0.156
CAVALIERS     33 22 6146 5875  0.029 26.938    6  0.190    6  0.183    2  0.253    6 0.5261   29  3.866   26 -0.242    1  0.748
GRIZZLIES     32 21 6161 5970  0.011 25.714    7  0.184    7  0.180    4  0.158    7 0.5232   15  3.967    9  0.167   12  0.149
KINGS         29 23 6183 6061 -0.032 24.490    8  0.072    8  0.073   10  0.072    9 0.5103    3  4.025    1  0.385   22 -0.240
HEAT          29 25 5859 5853  0.019 26.727    9  0.068    9  0.072   14  0.042    8 0.5106   30  3.863   30 -0.470    2  0.553
SUNS          29 26 6194 6122  0.001 26.683   10  0.042   11  0.044   17  0.022   12 0.5049   26  3.926   23 -0.178    7  0.222
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      30 26 6214 6203 -0.028 26.741   11  0.041   10  0.048   18  0.022   10 0.5061   28  3.903   28 -0.292    4  0.335
KNICKS        29 26 6292 6196 -0.002 26.561   12  0.038   12  0.044    9  0.086   11 0.5053   24  3.934   20 -0.072    5  0.243
MAVERICKS     28 26 6066 6047  0.001 26.316   13  0.025   13  0.031   23 -0.017   13 0.5033   27  3.921   25 -0.239    8  0.205
PELICANS      28 27 6351 6251  0.003 26.663   14  0.014   15  0.015   15  0.037   14 0.5026   19  3.960   17  0.009   14  0.064
WARRIORS      27 26 6255 6267  0.005 25.981   15  0.013   14  0.019   22  0.002   16 0.5019    2  4.026    2  0.321   25 -0.318
HAWKS         27 27 6280 6293  0.019 26.757   16  0.006   16  0.011   19  0.020   15 0.5024    9  4.001    7  0.207   21 -0.166
JAZZ          27 27 6349 6291 -0.006 26.111   17 -0.009   17 -0.008   16  0.026   17 0.4990    4  4.017    4  0.297   23 -0.244
TIMBERWOLVES  29 27 6466 6435 -0.058 26.032   18 -0.016   18 -0.012   20  0.020   19 0.4976   10  3.983   10  0.114   19 -0.074
TRAIL BLAZERS 26 27 6073 6044  0.001 25.841   19 -0.016   19 -0.013   21  0.011   18 0.4976   13  3.972   13  0.048   18 -0.025
BULLS         25 27 5957 5939  0.032 25.938   20 -0.016   20 -0.014   13  0.045   20 0.4973   16  3.966   14  0.048   16  0.042
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       25 27 6102 6027  0.014 25.496   21 -0.023   21 -0.023    7  0.104   21 0.4969    7  4.003    3  0.302   20 -0.095
WIZARDS       24 28 5889 5901  0.045 26.266   22 -0.036   22 -0.034   12  0.049   22 0.4963   17  3.963   15  0.037   15  0.062
RAPTORS       25 30 6216 6184  0.036 27.514   23 -0.050   23 -0.050   11  0.055   24 0.4923   22  3.948   18 -0.032   13  0.142
LAKERS        25 29 6324 6392  0.004 26.591   24 -0.060   24 -0.058   24 -0.044   23 0.4933    5  4.012    8  0.200   24 -0.289
PACERS        25 30 6308 6432  0.014 27.374   25 -0.069   25 -0.066   26 -0.125   25 0.4912    6  4.008   11  0.099   26 -0.349
MAGIC         22 32 6014 6179  0.008 26.853   26 -0.150   26 -0.144   25 -0.104   26 0.4787   23  3.946   24 -0.201   17 -0.007
HORNETS       15 40 6161 6523  0.034 28.163   27 -0.361   27 -0.362   27 -0.301   27 0.4508   11  3.976   27 -0.243   27 -0.359
PISTONS       14 40 6075 6471  0.015 27.384   28 -0.391   28 -0.391   28 -0.343   28 0.4452    8  4.002   21 -0.152   29 -0.533
SPURS         14 39 5976 6494 -0.038 25.961   29 -0.413   29 -0.412   30 -0.492   29 0.4412    1  4.029   22 -0.162   30 -0.823
ROCKETS       13 40 5823 6230 -0.019 26.239   30 -0.435   30 -0.437   29 -0.403   30 0.4381   18  3.962   29 -0.421   28 -0.384
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS         29 23 6183 6061 -0.032 24.490    8  0.072    8  0.073   10  0.072    9 0.5103    3  4.025    1  0.385   22 -0.240
SUNS          29 26 6194 6122  0.001 26.683   10  0.042   11  0.044   17  0.022   12 0.5049   26  3.926   23 -0.178    7  0.222
CLIPPERS      30 26 6214 6203 -0.028 26.741   11  0.041   10  0.048   18  0.022   10 0.5061   28  3.903   28 -0.292    4  0.335
WARRIORS      27 26 6255 6267  0.005 25.981   15  0.013   14  0.019   22  0.002   16 0.5019    2  4.026    2  0.321   25 -0.318
LAKERS        25 29 6324 6392  0.004 26.591   24 -0.060   24 -0.058   24 -0.044   23 0.4933    5  4.012    8  0.200   24 -0.289

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NUGGETS       37 17 6309 6102 -0.009 25.737    2  0.302    2  0.306    3  0.201    2 0.5418   12  3.975    6  0.251   11  0.151
JAZZ          27 27 6349 6291 -0.006 26.111   17 -0.009   17 -0.008   16  0.026   17 0.4990    4  4.017    4  0.297   23 -0.244
TIMBERWOLVES  29 27 6466 6435 -0.058 26.032   18 -0.016   18 -0.012   20  0.020   19 0.4976   10  3.983   10  0.114   19 -0.074
TRAIL BLAZERS 26 27 6073 6044  0.001 25.841   19 -0.016   19 -0.013   21  0.011   18 0.4976   13  3.972   13  0.048   18 -0.025
THUNDER       25 27 6102 6027  0.014 25.496   21 -0.023   21 -0.023    7  0.104   21 0.4969    7  4.003    3  0.302   20 -0.095

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     32 21 6161 5970  0.011 25.714    7  0.184    7  0.180    4  0.158    7 0.5232   15  3.967    9  0.167   12  0.149
MAVERICKS     28 26 6066 6047  0.001 26.316   13  0.025   13  0.031   23 -0.017   13 0.5033   27  3.921   25 -0.239    8  0.205
PELICANS      28 27 6351 6251  0.003 26.663   14  0.014   15  0.015   15  0.037   14 0.5026   19  3.960   17  0.009   14  0.064
SPURS         14 39 5976 6494 -0.038 25.961   29 -0.413   29 -0.412   30 -0.492   29 0.4412    1  4.029   22 -0.162   30 -0.823
ROCKETS       13 40 5823 6230 -0.019 26.239   30 -0.435   30 -0.437   29 -0.403   30 0.4381   18  3.962   29 -0.421   28 -0.384

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         36 17 6056 5928 -0.009 25.396    3  0.287    3  0.290    8  0.100    3 0.5405   21  3.951   16  0.026    9  0.175
CAVALIERS     33 22 6146 5875  0.029 26.938    6  0.190    6  0.183    2  0.253    6 0.5261   29  3.866   26 -0.242    1  0.748
BULLS         25 27 5957 5939  0.032 25.938   20 -0.016   20 -0.014   13  0.045   20 0.4973   16  3.966   14  0.048   16  0.042
PACERS        25 30 6308 6432  0.014 27.374   25 -0.069   25 -0.066   26 -0.125   25 0.4912    6  4.008   11  0.099   26 -0.349
PISTONS       14 40 6075 6471  0.015 27.384   28 -0.391   28 -0.391   28 -0.343   28 0.4452    8  4.002   21 -0.152   29 -0.533

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          29 25 5859 5853  0.019 26.727    9  0.068    9  0.072   14  0.042    8 0.5106   30  3.863   30 -0.470    2  0.553
HAWKS         27 27 6280 6293  0.019 26.757   16  0.006   16  0.011   19  0.020   15 0.5024    9  4.001    7  0.207   21 -0.166
WIZARDS       24 28 5889 5901  0.045 26.266   22 -0.036   22 -0.034   12  0.049   22 0.4963   17  3.963   15  0.037   15  0.062
MAGIC         22 32 6014 6179  0.008 26.853   26 -0.150   26 -0.144   25 -0.104   26 0.4787   23  3.946   24 -0.201   17 -0.007
HORNETS       15 40 6161 6523  0.034 28.163   27 -0.361   27 -0.362   27 -0.301   27 0.4508   11  3.976   27 -0.243   27 -0.359

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       37 16 6239 5929  0.011 25.466    1  0.330    1  0.332    1  0.258    1 0.5471   14  3.972    5  0.293    6  0.223
76ERS         34 18 5958 5768 -0.038 24.243    4  0.227    4  0.223    5  0.149    4 0.5315   25  3.928   19 -0.038    3  0.337
NETS          32 20 5949 5838  0.026 25.633    5  0.206    5  0.203    6  0.109    5 0.5291   20  3.956   12  0.063   10  0.156
KNICKS        29 26 6292 6196 -0.002 26.561   12  0.038   12  0.044    9  0.086   11 0.5053   24  3.934   20 -0.072    5  0.243
RAPTORS       25 30 6216 6184  0.036 27.514   23 -0.050   23 -0.050   11  0.055   24 0.4923   22  3.948   18 -0.032   13  0.142

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION  157 110 0.588    1  0.210
NORTHWEST DIVISION 144 125 0.535    2  0.088
PACIFIC DIVISION   140 130 0.519    3  0.016
CENTRAL DIVISION   133 136 0.494    4 -0.008
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 117 152 0.435    5 -0.121
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 115 153 0.429    6 -0.176

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.237 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.024 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Feb  6 05:30:11 2023
games through: Sun Feb  5 2023

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