Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       15  4 2218 2040  0.218 10.221    1  0.568    1  0.567    1  0.547    1 0.5797   23  3.919    7  0.308    2  0.787 P
TIMBERWOLVES  15  4 2144 2012  0.074  9.426    2  0.496    2  0.494    4  0.375    2 0.5714   26  3.883   16 -0.041    1  0.790 P
BUCKS         14  6 2422 2362 -0.021  9.475    3  0.325    3  0.316    9  0.129    5 0.5398    5  4.044    5  0.537   22 -0.279
NUGGETS       14  7 2405 2319  0.050 10.419    4  0.317    4  0.308    6  0.198    7 0.5388   15  3.970   10  0.218   14  0.178
76ERS         12  7 2282 2149  0.203 10.169    5  0.311    5  0.303    2  0.443    3 0.5422   11  3.990    3  0.569    8  0.316 P
THUNDER       13  6 2275 2116  0.038  9.086    6  0.297    6  0.294    3  0.428    4 0.5417   10  3.992    4  0.562    9  0.293 P
MAGIC         14  6 2285 2199 -0.060  9.122    7  0.291    7  0.286    7  0.157    6 0.5397   20  3.931   15 -0.021    6  0.336
KNICKS        12  7 2107 2004  0.043  9.185    8  0.221    8  0.216    5  0.258    9 0.5289   29  3.869   21 -0.229    3  0.744 P
KINGS         11  7 2097 2101  0.047  9.204    9  0.213    9  0.208   18  0.012    8 0.5311    8  4.007    9  0.225   21 -0.201 P
LAKERS        12  9 2363 2383  0.000 10.413   10  0.125   10  0.127   20 -0.036   10 0.5182   18  3.962   17 -0.057   19 -0.014
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     11  9 2216 2223  0.039 10.149   11  0.104   11  0.109   19  0.009   13 0.5098   24  3.905   24 -0.298    7  0.316
MAVERICKS     11  8 2246 2242 -0.061  8.928   12  0.085   12  0.088   22 -0.062   11 0.5113    4  4.046    6  0.355   23 -0.480 P
HEAT          11  9 2262 2240  0.006  9.794   13  0.079   13  0.083   14  0.064   12 0.5103   19  3.932   18 -0.110   10  0.238
SUNS          12  8 2323 2265 -0.141  8.627   14  0.054   14  0.054   17  0.040   14 0.5077   14  3.972   13  0.071   18  0.009
PELICANS      11 10 2394 2377 -0.005 10.232   15  0.035   15  0.038   16  0.053   16 0.5047   16  3.968   14  0.067   15  0.039
NETS          10  9 2217 2166  0.018  9.284   16  0.033   16  0.035    8  0.154   15 0.5071   13  3.988    8  0.269   16  0.039 P
PACERS        10  8 2318 2267 -0.090  8.085   17  0.017   18  0.019   15  0.056   17 0.5009    1  4.175    1  1.186   30 -1.074 P
HAWKS          9 10 2340 2333  0.107 10.063   18  0.012   17  0.020   13  0.066   18 0.5002    2  4.087    2  0.710   26 -0.578 P
WARRIORS       9 11 2296 2289  0.143 10.894   19 -0.000   19  0.010   12  0.091   19 0.4988   12  3.989   11  0.208   20 -0.026
RAPTORS        9 11 2224 2250  0.037 10.246   20 -0.065   20 -0.058   21 -0.048   21 0.4916   21  3.921   23 -0.277   13  0.180
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS        8  9 1871 1823 -0.014  8.131   21 -0.071   21 -0.066   10  0.122   20 0.4961   28  3.869   26 -0.363    4  0.607 P
CLIPPERS       9 10 2146 2084 -0.074  8.616   22 -0.103   22 -0.104   11  0.103   22 0.4859   22  3.919   20 -0.136    5  0.341 P
HORNETS        6 12 2049 2199 -0.020  9.325   23 -0.236   23 -0.239   27 -0.377   25 0.4572    6  4.014   19 -0.128   27 -0.627 P
BULLS          7 14 2261 2375  0.001 10.761   24 -0.259   24 -0.262   23 -0.252   23 0.4631   27  3.876   28 -0.704   11  0.199
JAZZ           7 13 2241 2369 -0.144  9.229   25 -0.313   25 -0.313   28 -0.396   24 0.4585    9  3.993   22 -0.255   25 -0.538
TRAIL BLAZERS  6 13 1998 2126 -0.098  9.151   26 -0.329   26 -0.328   26 -0.369   26 0.4534   30  3.852   30 -0.936   12  0.198 P
GRIZZLIES      5 14 2012 2126 -0.152  8.647   27 -0.437   27 -0.448   24 -0.356   27 0.4354   25  3.888   29 -0.749   17  0.037 P
SPURS          3 16 2119 2355  0.020 10.194   28 -0.515   28 -0.514   30 -0.565   29 0.4208    7  4.013   25 -0.319   28 -0.810 P
WIZARDS        3 16 2219 2377 -0.005  9.885   29 -0.553   29 -0.557   25 -0.363   28 0.4223    3  4.055   12  0.107   29 -0.832 P
PISTONS        2 18 2183 2362 -0.070  9.918   30 -0.702   30 -0.710   29 -0.491   30 0.4002   17  3.964   27 -0.499   24 -0.484
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS         11  7 2097 2101  0.047  9.204    9  0.213    9  0.208   18  0.012    8 0.5311    8  4.007    9  0.225   21 -0.201 P
LAKERS        12  9 2363 2383  0.000 10.413   10  0.125   10  0.127   20 -0.036   10 0.5182   18  3.962   17 -0.057   19 -0.014
SUNS          12  8 2323 2265 -0.141  8.627   14  0.054   14  0.054   17  0.040   14 0.5077   14  3.972   13  0.071   18  0.009
WARRIORS       9 11 2296 2289  0.143 10.894   19 -0.000   19  0.010   12  0.091   19 0.4988   12  3.989   11  0.208   20 -0.026
CLIPPERS       9 10 2146 2084 -0.074  8.616   22 -0.103   22 -0.104   11  0.103   22 0.4859   22  3.919   20 -0.136    5  0.341 P

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIMBERWOLVES  15  4 2144 2012  0.074  9.426    2  0.496    2  0.494    4  0.375    2 0.5714   26  3.883   16 -0.041    1  0.790 P
NUGGETS       14  7 2405 2319  0.050 10.419    4  0.317    4  0.308    6  0.198    7 0.5388   15  3.970   10  0.218   14  0.178
THUNDER       13  6 2275 2116  0.038  9.086    6  0.297    6  0.294    3  0.428    4 0.5417   10  3.992    4  0.562    9  0.293 P
JAZZ           7 13 2241 2369 -0.144  9.229   25 -0.313   25 -0.313   28 -0.396   24 0.4585    9  3.993   22 -0.255   25 -0.538
TRAIL BLAZERS  6 13 1998 2126 -0.098  9.151   26 -0.329   26 -0.328   26 -0.369   26 0.4534   30  3.852   30 -0.936   12  0.198 P

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAVERICKS     11  8 2246 2242 -0.061  8.928   12  0.085   12  0.088   22 -0.062   11 0.5113    4  4.046    6  0.355   23 -0.480 P
PELICANS      11 10 2394 2377 -0.005 10.232   15  0.035   15  0.038   16  0.053   16 0.5047   16  3.968   14  0.067   15  0.039
ROCKETS        8  9 1871 1823 -0.014  8.131   21 -0.071   21 -0.066   10  0.122   20 0.4961   28  3.869   26 -0.363    4  0.607 P
GRIZZLIES      5 14 2012 2126 -0.152  8.647   27 -0.437   27 -0.448   24 -0.356   27 0.4354   25  3.888   29 -0.749   17  0.037 P
SPURS          3 16 2119 2355  0.020 10.194   28 -0.515   28 -0.514   30 -0.565   29 0.4208    7  4.013   25 -0.319   28 -0.810 P

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         14  6 2422 2362 -0.021  9.475    3  0.325    3  0.316    9  0.129    5 0.5398    5  4.044    5  0.537   22 -0.279
CAVALIERS     11  9 2216 2223  0.039 10.149   11  0.104   11  0.109   19  0.009   13 0.5098   24  3.905   24 -0.298    7  0.316
PACERS        10  8 2318 2267 -0.090  8.085   17  0.017   18  0.019   15  0.056   17 0.5009    1  4.175    1  1.186   30 -1.074 P
BULLS          7 14 2261 2375  0.001 10.761   24 -0.259   24 -0.262   23 -0.252   23 0.4631   27  3.876   28 -0.704   11  0.199
PISTONS        2 18 2183 2362 -0.070  9.918   30 -0.702   30 -0.710   29 -0.491   30 0.4002   17  3.964   27 -0.499   24 -0.484

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         14  6 2285 2199 -0.060  9.122    7  0.291    7  0.286    7  0.157    6 0.5397   20  3.931   15 -0.021    6  0.336
HEAT          11  9 2262 2240  0.006  9.794   13  0.079   13  0.083   14  0.064   12 0.5103   19  3.932   18 -0.110   10  0.238
HAWKS          9 10 2340 2333  0.107 10.063   18  0.012   17  0.020   13  0.066   18 0.5002    2  4.087    2  0.710   26 -0.578 P
HORNETS        6 12 2049 2199 -0.020  9.325   23 -0.236   23 -0.239   27 -0.377   25 0.4572    6  4.014   19 -0.128   27 -0.627 P
WIZARDS        3 16 2219 2377 -0.005  9.885   29 -0.553   29 -0.557   25 -0.363   28 0.4223    3  4.055   12  0.107   29 -0.832 P

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       15  4 2218 2040  0.218 10.221    1  0.568    1  0.567    1  0.547    1 0.5797   23  3.919    7  0.308    2  0.787 P
76ERS         12  7 2282 2149  0.203 10.169    5  0.311    5  0.303    2  0.443    3 0.5422   11  3.990    3  0.569    8  0.316 P
KNICKS        12  7 2107 2004  0.043  9.185    8  0.221    8  0.216    5  0.258    9 0.5289   29  3.869   21 -0.229    3  0.744 P
NETS          10  9 2217 2166  0.018  9.284   16  0.033   16  0.035    8  0.154   15 0.5071   13  3.988    8  0.269   16  0.039 P
RAPTORS        9 11 2224 2250  0.037 10.246   20 -0.065   20 -0.058   21 -0.048   21 0.4916   21  3.921   23 -0.277   13  0.180

DIVISION            W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION  58 38 0.604    1  0.409
NORTHWEST DIVISION 55 43 0.561    2  0.076
PACIFIC DIVISION   53 45 0.541    3  0.062
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 43 53 0.448    4 -0.131
CENTRAL DIVISION   44 55 0.444    5 -0.153
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 38 57 0.400    6 -0.242

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.221 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.021 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Dec  3 05:30:16 2023
games through: Sat Dec  2 2023

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