Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ROCKETS       67 18 9524 8822  0.027 41.613    1  2.147    1  0.681    1  0.500    1 0.5693  3.927  0.665  0.336  0.000
WARRIORS      61 24 9643 9104  0.024 41.768    2  1.842    2  0.499    5  0.274    2 0.5522  3.978  0.696 -0.148  0.000
RAPTORS       61 24 9503 8865 -0.000 40.884    3  1.832    3  0.491    3  0.422    3 0.5504  3.924  0.570  0.275  0.000
CELTICS       57 28 8854 8564 -0.014 41.111    4  1.594    4  0.363   11  0.140    4 0.5390  3.816 -0.239  0.519  0.000
76ERS         55 31 9471 9061  0.005 41.995    5  1.491    5  0.302    4  0.411    5 0.5332  3.928  0.579  0.243  0.000
PELICANS      52 34 9619 9476  0.027 43.217    6  1.395    6  0.247    7  0.205    6 0.5268  3.972  0.595 -0.185  0.000
JAZZ          50 35 8865 8500  0.048 42.837    7  1.376    7  0.225    2  0.433    7 0.5243  3.815  0.045  0.820  0.000
CAVALIERS     51 34 9361 9301 -0.024 41.305    8  1.326    8  0.201   15  0.026    8 0.5218  3.968  0.395 -0.344  0.000
THUNDER       49 36 9157 8889  0.027 42.447    9  1.313   10  0.188    6  0.208   10 0.5189  3.895  0.209  0.207  0.000
PACERS        50 35 8943 8813 -0.008 41.642   10  1.311    9  0.191   13  0.117    9 0.5209  3.861 -0.049  0.282  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TIMBERWOLVES  48 37 9284 9108  0.045 43.135   11  1.277   11  0.171    9  0.155   11 0.5189  3.926  0.310 -0.001  0.000
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 37 9083 8906  0.019 42.861   12  1.267   12  0.166    8  0.158   12 0.5184  3.861 -0.005  0.321  0.000
SPURS         47 38 8714 8526  0.033 42.728   13  1.223   13  0.142   10  0.146   13 0.5149  3.802 -0.303  0.595  0.000
NUGGETS       46 36 9020 8899  0.013 40.823   14  1.215   14  0.141   12  0.127   14 0.5146  3.943  0.371 -0.116  0.000
BUCKS         45 40 9060 9081 -0.006 42.057   15  1.057   15  0.062   18 -0.001   15 0.5073  3.900  0.024 -0.026  0.000
WIZARDS       44 41 9089 9041  0.016 42.590   16  1.040   16  0.049   17  0.014   16 0.5056  3.896  0.019  0.009  0.000
HEAT          45 41 8906 8908 -0.011 42.340   17  1.025   17  0.043   16  0.019   17 0.5041  3.827 -0.311  0.349  0.000
CLIPPERS      42 40 8937 8934  0.007 40.895   18  1.019   18  0.039   19 -0.020   18 0.5035  3.953  0.273 -0.313  0.000
PISTONS       39 43 8509 8521 -0.014 40.308   19  0.859   19 -0.063   20 -0.023   19 0.4932  3.846 -0.260  0.215  0.000
HORNETS       36 46 8874 8853 -0.017 40.132   20  0.692   20 -0.154   14  0.029   20 0.4836  3.930  0.207 -0.150  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LAKERS        35 47 8862 8989 -0.004 40.878   21  0.667   21 -0.164   21 -0.043   21 0.4822  3.930  0.132 -0.218  0.000
KNICKS        29 53 8566 8858 -0.022 40.669   22  0.394   22 -0.340   24 -0.298   22 0.4637  3.889 -0.325 -0.271  0.000
NETS          28 54 8741 9048 -0.019 40.771   23  0.336   23 -0.370   23 -0.223   23 0.4610  3.931 -0.042 -0.404  0.000
KINGS         27 55 8104 8677 -0.012 41.592   24  0.321   24 -0.372   27 -0.374   24 0.4592  3.818 -0.746 -0.002  0.000
BULLS         27 55 8440 9017 -0.026 41.051   25  0.269   25 -0.399   29 -0.507   25 0.4582  3.892 -0.520 -0.495  0.000
MAVERICKS     24 58 8390 8639  0.005 41.443   26  0.164   26 -0.466   22 -0.207   26 0.4513  3.845 -0.449  0.034  0.000
MAGIC         25 57 8479 8874 -0.040 40.343   27  0.152   27 -0.469   25 -0.356   27 0.4506  3.892 -0.369 -0.344  0.000
HAWKS         24 58 8475 8922 -0.023 40.961   28  0.139   28 -0.477   26 -0.361   28 0.4493  3.900 -0.334 -0.388  0.000
GRIZZLIES     22 60 8145 8654 -0.011 41.589   29  0.069   29 -0.519   28 -0.498   29 0.4447  3.826 -0.829 -0.166  0.000
SUNS          21 61 8522 9290 -0.013 41.951   30  0.000   30 -0.553   30 -0.588   30 0.4423  3.947 -0.326 -0.850  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
WARRIORS      61 24 9643 9104  0.024 41.768    2  1.842    2  0.499    5  0.274    2 0.5522  3.978  0.696 -0.148  0.000
CLIPPERS      42 40 8937 8934  0.007 40.895   18  1.019   18  0.039   19 -0.020   18 0.5035  3.953  0.273 -0.313  0.000
LAKERS        35 47 8862 8989 -0.004 40.878   21  0.667   21 -0.164   21 -0.043   21 0.4822  3.930  0.132 -0.218  0.000
KINGS         27 55 8104 8677 -0.012 41.592   24  0.321   24 -0.372   27 -0.374   24 0.4592  3.818 -0.746 -0.002  0.000
SUNS          21 61 8522 9290 -0.013 41.951   30  0.000   30 -0.553   30 -0.588   30 0.4423  3.947 -0.326 -0.850  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
JAZZ          50 35 8865 8500  0.048 42.837    7  1.376    7  0.225    2  0.433    7 0.5243  3.815  0.045  0.820  0.000
THUNDER       49 36 9157 8889  0.027 42.447    9  1.313   10  0.188    6  0.208   10 0.5189  3.895  0.209  0.207  0.000
TIMBERWOLVES  48 37 9284 9108  0.045 43.135   11  1.277   11  0.171    9  0.155   11 0.5189  3.926  0.310 -0.001  0.000
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 37 9083 8906  0.019 42.861   12  1.267   12  0.166    8  0.158   12 0.5184  3.861 -0.005  0.321  0.000
NUGGETS       46 36 9020 8899  0.013 40.823   14  1.215   14  0.141   12  0.127   14 0.5146  3.943  0.371 -0.116  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ROCKETS       67 18 9524 8822  0.027 41.613    1  2.147    1  0.681    1  0.500    1 0.5693  3.927  0.665  0.336  0.000
PELICANS      52 34 9619 9476  0.027 43.217    6  1.395    6  0.247    7  0.205    6 0.5268  3.972  0.595 -0.185  0.000
SPURS         47 38 8714 8526  0.033 42.728   13  1.223   13  0.142   10  0.146   13 0.5149  3.802 -0.303  0.595  0.000
MAVERICKS     24 58 8390 8639  0.005 41.443   26  0.164   26 -0.466   22 -0.207   26 0.4513  3.845 -0.449  0.034  0.000
GRIZZLIES     22 60 8145 8654 -0.011 41.589   29  0.069   29 -0.519   28 -0.498   29 0.4447  3.826 -0.829 -0.166  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAVALIERS     51 34 9361 9301 -0.024 41.305    8  1.326    8  0.201   15  0.026    8 0.5218  3.968  0.395 -0.344  0.000
PACERS        50 35 8943 8813 -0.008 41.642   10  1.311    9  0.191   13  0.117    9 0.5209  3.861 -0.049  0.282  0.000
BUCKS         45 40 9060 9081 -0.006 42.057   15  1.057   15  0.062   18 -0.001   15 0.5073  3.900  0.024 -0.026  0.000
PISTONS       39 43 8509 8521 -0.014 40.308   19  0.859   19 -0.063   20 -0.023   19 0.4932  3.846 -0.260  0.215  0.000
BULLS         27 55 8440 9017 -0.026 41.051   25  0.269   25 -0.399   29 -0.507   25 0.4582  3.892 -0.520 -0.495  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
WIZARDS       44 41 9089 9041  0.016 42.590   16  1.040   16  0.049   17  0.014   16 0.5056  3.896  0.019  0.009  0.000
HEAT          45 41 8906 8908 -0.011 42.340   17  1.025   17  0.043   16  0.019   17 0.5041  3.827 -0.311  0.349  0.000
HORNETS       36 46 8874 8853 -0.017 40.132   20  0.692   20 -0.154   14  0.029   20 0.4836  3.930  0.207 -0.150  0.000
MAGIC         25 57 8479 8874 -0.040 40.343   27  0.152   27 -0.469   25 -0.356   27 0.4506  3.892 -0.369 -0.344  0.000
HAWKS         24 58 8475 8922 -0.023 40.961   28  0.139   28 -0.477   26 -0.361   28 0.4493  3.900 -0.334 -0.388  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RAPTORS       61 24 9503 8865 -0.000 40.884    3  1.832    3  0.491    3  0.422    3 0.5504  3.924  0.570  0.275  0.000
CELTICS       57 28 8854 8564 -0.014 41.111    4  1.594    4  0.363   11  0.140    4 0.5390  3.816 -0.239  0.519  0.000
76ERS         55 31 9471 9061  0.005 41.995    5  1.491    5  0.302    4  0.411    5 0.5332  3.928  0.579  0.243  0.000
KNICKS        29 53 8566 8858 -0.022 40.669   22  0.394   22 -0.340   24 -0.298   22 0.4637  3.889 -0.325 -0.271  0.000
NETS          28 54 8741 9048 -0.019 40.771   23  0.336   23 -0.370   23 -0.223   23 0.4610  3.931 -0.042 -0.404  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 242 181 0.572    1  0.224
ATLANTIC DIVISION  230 190 0.548    2  0.121
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 212 208 0.505    3  0.056
CENTRAL DIVISION   212 207 0.506    4 -0.093
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 174 243 0.417    5 -0.157
PACIFIC DIVISION   186 227 0.450    6 -0.179

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.185 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.021 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Apr 22 05:30:29 2018
games through: Sat Apr 21 2018

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