Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BUCKS         64 22 10173  9351 -0.011 40.446    1  2.197    1  0.540    1  0.566    1 0.5545  3.991  0.843  0.289  0.000
RAPTORS       62 25  9916  9345 -0.008 41.539    2  2.095    2  0.485    4  0.433    2 0.5477  3.932  0.407  0.458  0.000
WARRIORS      60 27 10268  9698  0.035 43.109    3  2.057    3  0.461    3  0.442    3 0.5475  3.999  0.760  0.125  0.000
ROCKETS       57 30  9876  9439  0.061 44.217    4  1.951    4  0.403    2  0.506    6 0.5400  3.934  0.493  0.519  0.000
TRAIL BLAZERS 57 30  9957  9584  0.054 44.107    5  1.947    5  0.402    5  0.366    5 0.5402  3.954  0.454  0.279  0.000
NUGGETS       57 30  9618  9268  0.046 43.891    6  1.931    6  0.393    7  0.259    4 0.5403  3.895  0.051  0.466  0.000
76ERS         55 32 10057  9781 -0.023 41.828    7  1.722    7  0.279    9  0.182    7 0.5285  3.996  0.483 -0.120  0.000
CELTICS       53 33  9613  9219 -0.005 41.598    8  1.682    8  0.248    8  0.243    8 0.5254  3.919  0.154  0.332  0.000
JAZZ          51 36  9650  9265  0.057 44.167    9  1.669    9  0.238    6  0.345    9 0.5240  3.898  0.148  0.542  0.000
THUNDER       50 37  9913  9663  0.052 44.319   10  1.623   11  0.212   10  0.180   11 0.5216  3.954  0.269  0.091  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CLIPPERS      50 37 10020  9990  0.048 44.773   11  1.617   10  0.217   14  0.018   10 0.5221  4.002  0.353 -0.317  0.000
SPURS         50 37  9673  9561  0.038 44.212   12  1.591   12  0.197   11  0.112   12 0.5210  3.929  0.071  0.154  0.000
PACERS        48 38  9224  8981 -0.009 41.806   13  1.445   13  0.118   12  0.081   13 0.5114  3.853 -0.333  0.494  0.000
MAGIC         43 44  9260  9274 -0.008 43.117   14  1.212   14 -0.018   13  0.058   14 0.4981  3.860 -0.324  0.441  0.000
NETS          43 44  9761  9822 -0.017 42.930   15  1.199   15 -0.026   16 -0.025   15 0.4976  3.948  0.029 -0.079  0.000
KINGS         39 43  9363  9455  0.013 41.402   16  1.171   16 -0.041   17 -0.062   16 0.4950  4.008  0.305 -0.430  0.000
PISTONS       41 45  9170  9285 -0.006 42.984   17  1.145   17 -0.055   19 -0.103   17 0.4938  3.866 -0.457  0.250  0.000
HEAT          39 43  8668  8687 -0.025 40.090   18  1.104   19 -0.082   15 -0.007   18 0.4918  3.850 -0.439  0.424  0.000
HORNETS       39 43  9081  9171 -0.031 40.164   19  1.100   18 -0.081   21 -0.123   19 0.4916  3.941 -0.103 -0.144  0.000
LAKERS        37 45  9165  9306  0.015 41.630   20  1.073   20 -0.096   22 -0.133   20 0.4899  3.963 -0.001 -0.265  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TIMBERWOLVES  36 46  9223  9346  0.024 41.796   21  1.034   21 -0.119   20 -0.113   21 0.4875  3.972  0.066 -0.292  0.000
GRIZZLIES     33 49  8490  8703  0.019 41.912   22  0.881   22 -0.200   23 -0.172   22 0.4786  3.809 -0.799  0.455  0.000
MAVERICKS     33 49  8927  9032  0.020 41.663   23  0.878   23 -0.207   18 -0.094   23 0.4784  3.910 -0.231  0.043  0.000
PELICANS      33 49  9466  9575  0.005 41.246   24  0.864   24 -0.215   24 -0.207   24 0.4769  4.032  0.285 -0.699  0.000
WIZARDS       32 50  9350  9588 -0.057 39.725   25  0.730   25 -0.297   25 -0.214   25 0.4692  4.009  0.156 -0.585  0.000
HAWKS         29 53  9294  9788 -0.051 40.575   26  0.582   26 -0.372   26 -0.312   26 0.4620  4.030  0.172 -0.796  0.000
BULLS         22 60  8605  9295 -0.058 40.856   27  0.260   27 -0.583   27 -0.561   27 0.4421  3.893 -0.780 -0.341  0.000
SUNS          19 63  8815  9581 -0.008 42.383   28  0.194   28 -0.619   28 -0.577   28 0.4373  3.944 -0.539 -0.616  0.000
CAVALIERS     19 63  8567  9355 -0.057 41.184   29  0.099   29 -0.671   29 -0.609   29 0.4336  3.913 -0.730 -0.488  0.000
KNICKS        17 65  8575  9330 -0.048 41.311   30  0.000   30 -0.732   30 -0.669   30 0.4284  3.906 -0.823 -0.515  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
WARRIORS      60 27 10268  9698  0.035 43.109    3  2.057    3  0.461    3  0.442    3 0.5475  3.999  0.760  0.125  0.000
CLIPPERS      50 37 10020  9990  0.048 44.773   11  1.617   10  0.217   14  0.018   10 0.5221  4.002  0.353 -0.317  0.000
KINGS         39 43  9363  9455  0.013 41.402   16  1.171   16 -0.041   17 -0.062   16 0.4950  4.008  0.305 -0.430  0.000
LAKERS        37 45  9165  9306  0.015 41.630   20  1.073   20 -0.096   22 -0.133   20 0.4899  3.963 -0.001 -0.265  0.000
SUNS          19 63  8815  9581 -0.008 42.383   28  0.194   28 -0.619   28 -0.577   28 0.4373  3.944 -0.539 -0.616  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TRAIL BLAZERS 57 30  9957  9584  0.054 44.107    5  1.947    5  0.402    5  0.366    5 0.5402  3.954  0.454  0.279  0.000
NUGGETS       57 30  9618  9268  0.046 43.891    6  1.931    6  0.393    7  0.259    4 0.5403  3.895  0.051  0.466  0.000
JAZZ          51 36  9650  9265  0.057 44.167    9  1.669    9  0.238    6  0.345    9 0.5240  3.898  0.148  0.542  0.000
THUNDER       50 37  9913  9663  0.052 44.319   10  1.623   11  0.212   10  0.180   11 0.5216  3.954  0.269  0.091  0.000
TIMBERWOLVES  36 46  9223  9346  0.024 41.796   21  1.034   21 -0.119   20 -0.113   21 0.4875  3.972  0.066 -0.292  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ROCKETS       57 30  9876  9439  0.061 44.217    4  1.951    4  0.403    2  0.506    6 0.5400  3.934  0.493  0.519  0.000
SPURS         50 37  9673  9561  0.038 44.212   12  1.591   12  0.197   11  0.112   12 0.5210  3.929  0.071  0.154  0.000
GRIZZLIES     33 49  8490  8703  0.019 41.912   22  0.881   22 -0.200   23 -0.172   22 0.4786  3.809 -0.799  0.455  0.000
MAVERICKS     33 49  8927  9032  0.020 41.663   23  0.878   23 -0.207   18 -0.094   23 0.4784  3.910 -0.231  0.043  0.000
PELICANS      33 49  9466  9575  0.005 41.246   24  0.864   24 -0.215   24 -0.207   24 0.4769  4.032  0.285 -0.699  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BUCKS         64 22 10173  9351 -0.011 40.446    1  2.197    1  0.540    1  0.566    1 0.5545  3.991  0.843  0.289  0.000
PACERS        48 38  9224  8981 -0.009 41.806   13  1.445   13  0.118   12  0.081   13 0.5114  3.853 -0.333  0.494  0.000
PISTONS       41 45  9170  9285 -0.006 42.984   17  1.145   17 -0.055   19 -0.103   17 0.4938  3.866 -0.457  0.250  0.000
BULLS         22 60  8605  9295 -0.058 40.856   27  0.260   27 -0.583   27 -0.561   27 0.4421  3.893 -0.780 -0.341  0.000
CAVALIERS     19 63  8567  9355 -0.057 41.184   29  0.099   29 -0.671   29 -0.609   29 0.4336  3.913 -0.730 -0.488  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MAGIC         43 44  9260  9274 -0.008 43.117   14  1.212   14 -0.018   13  0.058   14 0.4981  3.860 -0.324  0.441  0.000
HEAT          39 43  8668  8687 -0.025 40.090   18  1.104   19 -0.082   15 -0.007   18 0.4918  3.850 -0.439  0.424  0.000
HORNETS       39 43  9081  9171 -0.031 40.164   19  1.100   18 -0.081   21 -0.123   19 0.4916  3.941 -0.103 -0.144  0.000
WIZARDS       32 50  9350  9588 -0.057 39.725   25  0.730   25 -0.297   25 -0.214   25 0.4692  4.009  0.156 -0.585  0.000
HAWKS         29 53  9294  9788 -0.051 40.575   26  0.582   26 -0.372   26 -0.312   26 0.4620  4.030  0.172 -0.796  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RAPTORS       62 25  9916  9345 -0.008 41.539    2  2.095    2  0.485    4  0.433    2 0.5477  3.932  0.407  0.458  0.000
76ERS         55 32 10057  9781 -0.023 41.828    7  1.722    7  0.279    9  0.182    7 0.5285  3.996  0.483 -0.120  0.000
CELTICS       53 33  9613  9219 -0.005 41.598    8  1.682    8  0.248    8  0.243    8 0.5254  3.919  0.154  0.332  0.000
NETS          43 44  9761  9822 -0.017 42.930   15  1.199   15 -0.026   16 -0.025   15 0.4976  3.948  0.029 -0.079  0.000
KNICKS        17 65  8575  9330 -0.048 41.311   30  0.000   30 -0.732   30 -0.669   30 0.4284  3.906 -0.823 -0.515  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 251 179 0.584    1  0.252
ATLANTIC DIVISION  230 199 0.536    2  0.052
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 206 214 0.490    3  0.040
PACIFIC DIVISION   205 215 0.488    4 -0.059
CENTRAL DIVISION   194 228 0.460    5 -0.140
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 182 233 0.439    6 -0.183

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.221 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Apr 25 05:30:37 2019
games through: Wed Apr 24 2019

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