Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LIGHTNING      58 29 314 248 -0.024 42.238    1  1.103    1  0.257    3  0.211    1 0.5381  1.226  0.443 -0.021  0.000
JETS           56 31 293 227  0.020 43.714    2  1.097    2  0.250    1  0.267    3 0.5360  1.063  0.295  0.239  0.000
PREDATORS      56 31 284 226  0.024 43.890    3  1.093    3  0.248    2  0.248    2 0.5362  1.015  0.218  0.277  0.000
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 55 31 279 231  0.008 42.930    4  1.070    4  0.232    5  0.181    4 0.5331  1.069  0.216  0.146  0.000
BRUINS         53 34 290 227 -0.014 42.587    5  0.963    5  0.168    4  0.211    5 0.5252  1.017  0.185  0.237  0.000
CAPITALS       52 35 277 254 -0.018 42.730    6  0.907    6  0.148   13  0.056    6 0.5226  1.091  0.117 -0.006  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS    51 36 290 252 -0.003 43.126    7  0.886    7  0.138    8  0.116    7 0.5203  1.144  0.243 -0.011  0.000
SHARKS         49 37 268 233  0.004 42.869    8  0.829    8  0.116    6  0.140    9 0.5164  1.020  0.116  0.164  0.000
PENGUINS       50 37 292 260 -0.021 42.569    9  0.808    9  0.108   10  0.092    8 0.5166  1.174  0.256 -0.073  0.000
WILD           46 41 262 248  0.039 44.676   10  0.720   11  0.070   11  0.081   10 0.5103  1.029  0.069  0.094  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BLUES          44 38 226 222  0.018 41.560   11  0.716   10  0.070   15  0.015   11 0.5100  0.890 -0.156  0.187  0.000
BLUE JACKETS   47 40 257 248 -0.012 43.037   12  0.689   12  0.058   16  0.011   12 0.5099  0.959 -0.083  0.106  0.000
KINGS          45 41 242 210  0.015 43.267   13  0.676   14  0.047    7  0.129   14 0.5069  0.798 -0.141  0.399  0.000
AVALANCHE      45 42 272 254  0.036 44.542   14  0.674   13  0.048    9  0.095   13 0.5075  1.108  0.178  0.012  0.000
PANTHERS       44 38 248 246 -0.021 40.248   15  0.666   15  0.043   17  0.011   15 0.5067  1.087  0.067 -0.046  0.000
STARS          42 40 235 225  0.018 41.486   16  0.646   16  0.029   14  0.043   17 0.5043  0.940 -0.073  0.159  0.000
DUCKS          44 42 239 232  0.015 43.367   17  0.642   18  0.027   12  0.059   18 0.5034  0.882 -0.121  0.240  0.000
DEVILS         45 42 260 262  0.000 43.495   18  0.640   17  0.027   18 -0.016   16 0.5052  1.049 -0.006 -0.027  0.000
FLYERS         44 43 261 263 -0.008 43.209   19  0.608   19  0.003   19 -0.023   19 0.5013  1.042 -0.020 -0.025  0.000
FLAMES         37 45 218 248  0.004 41.292   20  0.480   20 -0.078   22 -0.113   20 0.4881  0.972 -0.193 -0.034  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OILERS         36 46 234 263  0.006 41.388   21  0.437   21 -0.096   25 -0.148   21 0.4852  1.113 -0.060 -0.236  0.000
HURRICANES     36 46 228 256 -0.017 40.553   22  0.407   22 -0.110   21 -0.087   22 0.4843  1.032 -0.096 -0.078  0.000
ISLANDERS      35 47 264 296 -0.016 40.663   23  0.354   23 -0.129   23 -0.140   23 0.4814  1.331  0.231 -0.512  0.000
BLACKHAWKS     33 49 229 256  0.023 41.882   24  0.321   24 -0.144   20 -0.086   25 0.4785  1.059 -0.064 -0.109  0.000
RANGERS        34 48 231 268 -0.016 40.684   25  0.307   25 -0.148   26 -0.150   24 0.4785  1.082 -0.099 -0.200  0.000
CANUCKS        31 51 218 264  0.010 41.562   26  0.209   26 -0.193   28 -0.170   26 0.4710  1.048 -0.161 -0.179  0.000
RED WINGS      30 52 217 255 -0.019 40.572   27  0.151   27 -0.232   24 -0.141   27 0.4660  0.962 -0.232 -0.051  0.000
COYOTES        29 53 208 256  0.010 41.563   28  0.149   28 -0.233   27 -0.161   28 0.4654  0.943 -0.273 -0.049  0.000
CANADIENS      29 53 209 264 -0.019 40.770   29  0.119   29 -0.253   29 -0.235   29 0.4631  0.962 -0.326 -0.145  0.000
SENATORS       28 54 221 291 -0.018 40.900   30  0.093   30 -0.269   30 -0.300   30 0.4602  1.124 -0.197 -0.402  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SABRES         25 57 199 280 -0.017 40.924   31  0.000   31 -0.327   31 -0.313   31 0.4515  0.996 -0.365 -0.262  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 55 31 279 231  0.008 42.930    4  1.070    4  0.232    5  0.181    4 0.5331  1.069  0.216  0.146  0.000
SHARKS         49 37 268 233  0.004 42.869    8  0.829    8  0.116    6  0.140    9 0.5164  1.020  0.116  0.164  0.000
KINGS          45 41 242 210  0.015 43.267   13  0.676   14  0.047    7  0.129   14 0.5069  0.798 -0.141  0.399  0.000
DUCKS          44 42 239 232  0.015 43.367   17  0.642   18  0.027   12  0.059   18 0.5034  0.882 -0.121  0.240  0.000
FLAMES         37 45 218 248  0.004 41.292   20  0.480   20 -0.078   22 -0.113   20 0.4881  0.972 -0.193 -0.034  0.000
OILERS         36 46 234 263  0.006 41.388   21  0.437   21 -0.096   25 -0.148   21 0.4852  1.113 -0.060 -0.236  0.000
CANUCKS        31 51 218 264  0.010 41.562   26  0.209   26 -0.193   28 -0.170   26 0.4710  1.048 -0.161 -0.179  0.000
COYOTES        29 53 208 256  0.010 41.563   28  0.149   28 -0.233   27 -0.161   28 0.4654  0.943 -0.273 -0.049  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
JETS           56 31 293 227  0.020 43.714    2  1.097    2  0.250    1  0.267    3 0.5360  1.063  0.295  0.239  0.000
PREDATORS      56 31 284 226  0.024 43.890    3  1.093    3  0.248    2  0.248    2 0.5362  1.015  0.218  0.277  0.000
WILD           46 41 262 248  0.039 44.676   10  0.720   11  0.070   11  0.081   10 0.5103  1.029  0.069  0.094  0.000
BLUES          44 38 226 222  0.018 41.560   11  0.716   10  0.070   15  0.015   11 0.5100  0.890 -0.156  0.187  0.000
AVALANCHE      45 42 272 254  0.036 44.542   14  0.674   13  0.048    9  0.095   13 0.5075  1.108  0.178  0.012  0.000
STARS          42 40 235 225  0.018 41.486   16  0.646   16  0.029   14  0.043   17 0.5043  0.940 -0.073  0.159  0.000
BLACKHAWKS     33 49 229 256  0.023 41.882   24  0.321   24 -0.144   20 -0.086   25 0.4785  1.059 -0.064 -0.109  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LIGHTNING      58 29 314 248 -0.024 42.238    1  1.103    1  0.257    3  0.211    1 0.5381  1.226  0.443 -0.021  0.000
BRUINS         53 34 290 227 -0.014 42.587    5  0.963    5  0.168    4  0.211    5 0.5252  1.017  0.185  0.237  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS    51 36 290 252 -0.003 43.126    7  0.886    7  0.138    8  0.116    7 0.5203  1.144  0.243 -0.011  0.000
PANTHERS       44 38 248 246 -0.021 40.248   15  0.666   15  0.043   17  0.011   15 0.5067  1.087  0.067 -0.046  0.000
RED WINGS      30 52 217 255 -0.019 40.572   27  0.151   27 -0.232   24 -0.141   27 0.4660  0.962 -0.232 -0.051  0.000
CANADIENS      29 53 209 264 -0.019 40.770   29  0.119   29 -0.253   29 -0.235   29 0.4631  0.962 -0.326 -0.145  0.000
SENATORS       28 54 221 291 -0.018 40.900   30  0.093   30 -0.269   30 -0.300   30 0.4602  1.124 -0.197 -0.402  0.000
SABRES         25 57 199 280 -0.017 40.924   31  0.000   31 -0.327   31 -0.313   31 0.4515  0.996 -0.365 -0.262  0.000

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAPITALS       52 35 277 254 -0.018 42.730    6  0.907    6  0.148   13  0.056    6 0.5226  1.091  0.117 -0.006  0.000
PENGUINS       50 37 292 260 -0.021 42.569    9  0.808    9  0.108   10  0.092    8 0.5166  1.174  0.256 -0.073  0.000
BLUE JACKETS   47 40 257 248 -0.012 43.037   12  0.689   12  0.058   16  0.011   12 0.5099  0.959 -0.083  0.106  0.000
DEVILS         45 42 260 262  0.000 43.495   18  0.640   17  0.027   18 -0.016   16 0.5052  1.049 -0.006 -0.027  0.000
FLYERS         44 43 261 263 -0.008 43.209   19  0.608   19  0.003   19 -0.023   19 0.5013  1.042 -0.020 -0.025  0.000
HURRICANES     36 46 228 256 -0.017 40.553   22  0.407   22 -0.110   21 -0.087   22 0.4843  1.032 -0.096 -0.078  0.000
ISLANDERS      35 47 264 296 -0.016 40.663   23  0.354   23 -0.129   23 -0.140   23 0.4814  1.331  0.231 -0.512  0.000
RANGERS        34 48 231 268 -0.016 40.684   25  0.307   25 -0.148   26 -0.150   24 0.4785  1.082 -0.099 -0.200  0.000

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      322 272 0.542    1  0.128
PACIFIC DIVISION      326 346 0.485    2 -0.013
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 343 338 0.504    3 -0.042
ATLANTIC DIVISION     318 353 0.474    4 -0.075

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.126 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.015 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Apr 22 05:30:28 2018
games through: Sat Apr 21 2018

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