Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAPITALS     62 33 299 218  0.033 47.963    1  1.347    1  0.289    1  0.299    1 0.5388  0.886  0.218  0.380  0.000
PENGUINS     66 41 359 291  0.048 54.782    2  1.286    2  0.243    2  0.250    2 0.5327  1.179  0.517 -0.017  0.000
BLUE JACKETS 51 36 262 216  0.030 43.995    3  1.135    3  0.162    3  0.181    3 0.5232  0.946  0.167  0.195  0.000
RANGERS      54 40 290 250  0.018 47.153    4  1.078    4  0.138    5  0.158    4 0.5201  1.091  0.314  0.001  0.000
BLACKHAWKS   50 36 247 226 -0.020 42.004    5  1.028    5  0.121   14  0.036    5 0.5174  0.944  0.020  0.052  0.000
OILERS       54 41 283 247 -0.009 46.677    6  1.006    7  0.110    6  0.123    6 0.5162  1.017  0.191  0.055  0.000
DUCKS        56 43 273 252 -0.004 48.896    7  0.998    6  0.111    8  0.094    8 0.5158  0.885  0.013  0.176  0.000
WILD         50 37 274 219 -0.024 42.143    8  0.994    8  0.105    4  0.168    7 0.5160  1.035  0.257  0.078  0.000
BLUES        52 41 257 241  0.001 46.145    9  0.962   10  0.100   11  0.070    9 0.5139  0.915  0.021  0.119  0.000
CANADIENS    49 39 237 214  0.007 43.902   10  0.958   11  0.098   12  0.066   10 0.5138  0.781 -0.128  0.260  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SENATORS     55 46 259 264  0.036 51.667   11  0.955    9  0.102   16  0.026   11 0.5135  0.804 -0.143  0.196  0.000
SHARKS       48 40 235 213 -0.010 43.275   12  0.887   12  0.068   10  0.073   12 0.5104  0.819 -0.080  0.226  0.000
PREDATORS    55 49 300 272  0.012 51.994   13  0.859   13  0.057    7  0.105   13 0.5093  0.967  0.115  0.095  0.000
BRUINS       46 42 247 227 -0.004 43.483   14  0.828   14  0.032    9  0.084   14 0.5051  0.949  0.073  0.095  0.000
FLAMES       45 41 235 235 -0.022 42.091   15  0.813   15  0.022   18 -0.031   15 0.5039  0.978 -0.008 -0.053  0.000
LIGHTNING    42 40 234 227 -0.006 40.577   16  0.799   16  0.011   17  0.012   16 0.5016  1.018  0.081 -0.057  0.000
ISLANDERS    41 41 241 242  0.009 41.031   17  0.788   17  0.003   15  0.032   17 0.5003  1.110  0.213 -0.148  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS  42 46 267 260  0.017 44.280   18  0.743   18 -0.032   13  0.054   18 0.4956  1.135  0.265 -0.157  0.000
JETS         40 42 249 256 -0.026 40.001   19  0.723   19 -0.041   19 -0.038   19 0.4949  1.226  0.288 -0.365  0.000
FLYERS       39 43 219 236  0.002 40.994   20  0.718   20 -0.043   22 -0.080   20 0.4936  0.961 -0.077 -0.083  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
KINGS        39 43 201 205 -0.022 40.179   21  0.690   21 -0.061   20 -0.063   21 0.4925  0.738 -0.301  0.175  0.000
HURRICANES   36 46 215 236  0.006 41.126   22  0.596   22 -0.104   21 -0.076   22 0.4854  0.947 -0.089 -0.063  0.000
PANTHERS     35 47 210 237 -0.001 40.931   23  0.542   23 -0.125   23 -0.107   23 0.4815  0.928 -0.141 -0.073  0.000
STARS        34 48 223 262 -0.022 40.373   24  0.457   24 -0.160   26 -0.167   24 0.4776  1.117  0.021 -0.355  0.000
SABRES       33 49 201 237 -0.001 40.985   25  0.442   25 -0.167   24 -0.148   26 0.4758  0.901 -0.212 -0.084  0.000
RED WINGS    33 49 207 244 -0.001 41.025   26  0.439   26 -0.167   25 -0.166   25 0.4758  0.920 -0.209 -0.123  0.000
CANUCKS      30 52 182 243 -0.019 40.617   27  0.311   27 -0.241   29 -0.279   27 0.4663  0.827 -0.424 -0.135  0.000
COYOTES      30 52 197 260 -0.022 40.538   28  0.308   28 -0.243   28 -0.272   28 0.4660  0.988 -0.238 -0.306  0.000
DEVILS       28 54 183 244  0.011 41.555   29  0.281   29 -0.264   27 -0.237   29 0.4625  0.805 -0.406 -0.068  0.000
AVALANCHE    22 60 166 278 -0.012 41.061   30  0.000   30 -0.405   30 -0.460   30 0.4431  0.907 -0.517 -0.402  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OILERS       54 41 283 247 -0.009 46.677    6  1.006    7  0.110    6  0.123    6 0.5162  1.017  0.191  0.055  0.000
DUCKS        56 43 273 252 -0.004 48.896    7  0.998    6  0.111    8  0.094    8 0.5158  0.885  0.013  0.176  0.000
SHARKS       48 40 235 213 -0.010 43.275   12  0.887   12  0.068   10  0.073   12 0.5104  0.819 -0.080  0.226  0.000
FLAMES       45 41 235 235 -0.022 42.091   15  0.813   15  0.022   18 -0.031   15 0.5039  0.978 -0.008 -0.053  0.000
KINGS        39 43 201 205 -0.022 40.179   21  0.690   21 -0.061   20 -0.063   21 0.4925  0.738 -0.301  0.175  0.000
CANUCKS      30 52 182 243 -0.019 40.617   27  0.311   27 -0.241   29 -0.279   27 0.4663  0.827 -0.424 -0.135  0.000
COYOTES      30 52 197 260 -0.022 40.538   28  0.308   28 -0.243   28 -0.272   28 0.4660  0.988 -0.238 -0.306  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BLACKHAWKS   50 36 247 226 -0.020 42.004    5  1.028    5  0.121   14  0.036    5 0.5174  0.944  0.020  0.052  0.000
WILD         50 37 274 219 -0.024 42.143    8  0.994    8  0.105    4  0.168    7 0.5160  1.035  0.257  0.078  0.000
BLUES        52 41 257 241  0.001 46.145    9  0.962   10  0.100   11  0.070    9 0.5139  0.915  0.021  0.119  0.000
PREDATORS    55 49 300 272  0.012 51.994   13  0.859   13  0.057    7  0.105   13 0.5093  0.967  0.115  0.095  0.000
JETS         40 42 249 256 -0.026 40.001   19  0.723   19 -0.041   19 -0.038   19 0.4949  1.226  0.288 -0.365  0.000
STARS        34 48 223 262 -0.022 40.373   24  0.457   24 -0.160   26 -0.167   24 0.4776  1.117  0.021 -0.355  0.000
AVALANCHE    22 60 166 278 -0.012 41.061   30  0.000   30 -0.405   30 -0.460   30 0.4431  0.907 -0.517 -0.402  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CANADIENS    49 39 237 214  0.007 43.902   10  0.958   11  0.098   12  0.066   10 0.5138  0.781 -0.128  0.260  0.000
SENATORS     55 46 259 264  0.036 51.667   11  0.955    9  0.102   16  0.026   11 0.5135  0.804 -0.143  0.196  0.000
BRUINS       46 42 247 227 -0.004 43.483   14  0.828   14  0.032    9  0.084   14 0.5051  0.949  0.073  0.095  0.000
LIGHTNING    42 40 234 227 -0.006 40.577   16  0.799   16  0.011   17  0.012   16 0.5016  1.018  0.081 -0.057  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS  42 46 267 260  0.017 44.280   18  0.743   18 -0.032   13  0.054   18 0.4956  1.135  0.265 -0.157  0.000
PANTHERS     35 47 210 237 -0.001 40.931   23  0.542   23 -0.125   23 -0.107   23 0.4815  0.928 -0.141 -0.073  0.000
SABRES       33 49 201 237 -0.001 40.985   25  0.442   25 -0.167   24 -0.148   26 0.4758  0.901 -0.212 -0.084  0.000
RED WINGS    33 49 207 244 -0.001 41.025   26  0.439   26 -0.167   25 -0.166   25 0.4758  0.920 -0.209 -0.123  0.000

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAPITALS     62 33 299 218  0.033 47.963    1  1.347    1  0.289    1  0.299    1 0.5388  0.886  0.218  0.380  0.000
PENGUINS     66 41 359 291  0.048 54.782    2  1.286    2  0.243    2  0.250    2 0.5327  1.179  0.517 -0.017  0.000
BLUE JACKETS 51 36 262 216  0.030 43.995    3  1.135    3  0.162    3  0.181    3 0.5232  0.946  0.167  0.195  0.000
RANGERS      54 40 290 250  0.018 47.153    4  1.078    4  0.138    5  0.158    4 0.5201  1.091  0.314  0.001  0.000
ISLANDERS    41 41 241 242  0.009 41.031   17  0.788   17  0.003   15  0.032   17 0.5003  1.110  0.213 -0.148  0.000
FLYERS       39 43 219 236  0.002 40.994   20  0.718   20 -0.043   22 -0.080   20 0.4936  0.961 -0.077 -0.083  0.000
HURRICANES   36 46 215 236  0.006 41.126   22  0.596   22 -0.104   21 -0.076   22 0.4854  0.947 -0.089 -0.063  0.000
DEVILS       28 54 183 244  0.011 41.555   29  0.281   29 -0.264   27 -0.237   29 0.4625  0.805 -0.406 -0.068  0.000

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 377 334 0.530    1  0.086
ATLANTIC DIVISION     335 358 0.483    2 -0.027
CENTRAL DIVISION      303 313 0.492    3 -0.049
PACIFIC DIVISION      302 312 0.492    4 -0.065

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.134 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Jun 12 05:30:21 2017
games through: Sun Jun 11 2017

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