Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LIGHTNING      46 15 242 162 -0.005 30.239    1  0.817    1  0.294    1  0.286    1 0.5610  1.219  0.473  0.099  0.000
FLAMES         36 23 217 176  0.009 29.780    2  0.546    2  0.130    2  0.157    2 0.5271  1.256  0.393 -0.079  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS    36 23 208 167  0.005 29.677    3  0.538    3  0.127    4  0.134    3 0.5266  1.174  0.263  0.005  0.000
ISLANDERS      35 23 169 138  0.007 29.216    4  0.519    4  0.120    3  0.137    4 0.5250  0.767 -0.200  0.475  0.000
JETS           36 23 202 171 -0.032 28.899    5  0.497    5  0.112   10  0.071    5 0.5225  1.145  0.164 -0.022  0.000
SHARKS         35 25 219 190 -0.011 29.815    6  0.447    6  0.090    6  0.111    6 0.5196  1.322  0.435 -0.213  0.000
BRUINS         35 25 181 155 -0.019 29.657    7  0.440    7  0.086    7  0.108    7 0.5183  0.876 -0.114  0.330  0.000
PREDATORS      35 27 191 163  0.003 31.176    8  0.418    8  0.077    5  0.117    8 0.5154  0.967 -0.003  0.238  0.000
BLUE JACKETS   33 26 188 180 -0.011 29.475    9  0.386    9  0.061   14  0.012    9 0.5140  1.134  0.090 -0.067  0.000
BLUES          32 27 177 164  0.009 29.864   10  0.372   11  0.051    9  0.077   10 0.5109  0.982 -0.027  0.180  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAPITALS       33 27 202 191 -0.014 29.893   11  0.369   10  0.051   11  0.034   11 0.5103  1.224  0.228 -0.160  0.000
PENGUINS       32 28 210 187  0.006 30.236   12  0.356   12  0.040    8  0.105   12 0.5084  1.244  0.325 -0.114  0.000
CANADIENS      32 28 179 176  0.000 30.263   13  0.350   13  0.038   16  0.008   13 0.5080  1.006 -0.067  0.083  0.000
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 32 29 180 172 -0.009 30.518   14  0.330   14  0.024   12  0.027   14 0.5048  0.981 -0.078  0.131  0.000
HURRICANES     31 29 174 167 -0.006 30.101   15  0.318   15  0.015   15  0.011   15 0.5036  0.940 -0.141  0.162  0.000
STARS          29 30 148 154  0.015 30.155   16  0.295   16 -0.002   17 -0.009   16 0.4995  0.742 -0.373  0.354  0.000
SABRES         28 31 170 185 -0.002 29.833   17  0.258   17 -0.029   19 -0.063   17 0.4949  1.027 -0.114 -0.012  0.000
FLYERS         28 32 178 201 -0.014 30.118   18  0.234   18 -0.045   26 -0.103   18 0.4909  1.138 -0.019 -0.187  0.000
PANTHERS       26 32 181 199  0.016 29.739   19  0.225   19 -0.052   18 -0.058   19 0.4905  1.168  0.063 -0.179  0.000
COYOTES        27 33 157 174  0.010 30.636   20  0.224   20 -0.053   21 -0.079   20 0.4888  0.885 -0.291  0.133  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RANGERS        26 33 172 195  0.009 30.127   21  0.205   21 -0.063   22 -0.081   21 0.4876  1.107 -0.036 -0.126  0.000
CANUCKS        26 34 170 188  0.015 30.764   22  0.194   22 -0.069   23 -0.083   22 0.4852  1.011 -0.152 -0.014  0.000
WILD           27 33 164 180 -0.031 29.682   23  0.189   23 -0.071   24 -0.088   23 0.4846  0.973 -0.201  0.025  0.000
BLACKHAWKS     25 35 200 223  0.009 30.601   24  0.147   24 -0.092   20 -0.071   24 0.4806  1.355  0.298 -0.440  0.000
AVALANCHE      24 35 189 192  0.023 30.281   25  0.139   25 -0.097   13  0.017   25 0.4795  1.202  0.183 -0.149  0.000
OILERS         24 35 165 198  0.001 29.982   26  0.109   26 -0.106   29 -0.122   26 0.4776  1.084 -0.105 -0.139  0.000
DUCKS          24 36 137 187  0.001 30.607   27  0.086   27 -0.113   31 -0.194   27 0.4764  0.804 -0.493  0.105  0.000
DEVILS         23 37 176 208  0.017 30.835   28  0.054   29 -0.128   25 -0.090   28 0.4743  1.174  0.039 -0.219  0.000
KINGS          23 36 143 182 -0.003 29.909   29  0.051   28 -0.128   30 -0.144   29 0.4723  0.857 -0.387  0.100  0.000
RED WINGS      23 37 168 199 -0.005 30.351   30  0.030   30 -0.136   28 -0.119   30 0.4723  1.054 -0.138 -0.101  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SENATORS       22 37 186 219 -0.010 29.716   31  0.000   31 -0.149   27 -0.119   31 0.4682  1.337  0.227 -0.464  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
FLAMES         36 23 217 176  0.009 29.780    2  0.546    2  0.130    2  0.157    2 0.5271  1.256  0.393 -0.079  0.000
SHARKS         35 25 219 190 -0.011 29.815    6  0.447    6  0.090    6  0.111    6 0.5196  1.322  0.435 -0.213  0.000
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 32 29 180 172 -0.009 30.518   14  0.330   14  0.024   12  0.027   14 0.5048  0.981 -0.078  0.131  0.000
COYOTES        27 33 157 174  0.010 30.636   20  0.224   20 -0.053   21 -0.079   20 0.4888  0.885 -0.291  0.133  0.000
CANUCKS        26 34 170 188  0.015 30.764   22  0.194   22 -0.069   23 -0.083   22 0.4852  1.011 -0.152 -0.014  0.000
OILERS         24 35 165 198  0.001 29.982   26  0.109   26 -0.106   29 -0.122   26 0.4776  1.084 -0.105 -0.139  0.000
DUCKS          24 36 137 187  0.001 30.607   27  0.086   27 -0.113   31 -0.194   27 0.4764  0.804 -0.493  0.105  0.000
KINGS          23 36 143 182 -0.003 29.909   29  0.051   28 -0.128   30 -0.144   29 0.4723  0.857 -0.387  0.100  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
JETS           36 23 202 171 -0.032 28.899    5  0.497    5  0.112   10  0.071    5 0.5225  1.145  0.164 -0.022  0.000
PREDATORS      35 27 191 163  0.003 31.176    8  0.418    8  0.077    5  0.117    8 0.5154  0.967 -0.003  0.238  0.000
BLUES          32 27 177 164  0.009 29.864   10  0.372   11  0.051    9  0.077   10 0.5109  0.982 -0.027  0.180  0.000
STARS          29 30 148 154  0.015 30.155   16  0.295   16 -0.002   17 -0.009   16 0.4995  0.742 -0.373  0.354  0.000
WILD           27 33 164 180 -0.031 29.682   23  0.189   23 -0.071   24 -0.088   23 0.4846  0.973 -0.201  0.025  0.000
BLACKHAWKS     25 35 200 223  0.009 30.601   24  0.147   24 -0.092   20 -0.071   24 0.4806  1.355  0.298 -0.440  0.000
AVALANCHE      24 35 189 192  0.023 30.281   25  0.139   25 -0.097   13  0.017   25 0.4795  1.202  0.183 -0.149  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LIGHTNING      46 15 242 162 -0.005 30.239    1  0.817    1  0.294    1  0.286    1 0.5610  1.219  0.473  0.099  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS    36 23 208 167  0.005 29.677    3  0.538    3  0.127    4  0.134    3 0.5266  1.174  0.263  0.005  0.000
BRUINS         35 25 181 155 -0.019 29.657    7  0.440    7  0.086    7  0.108    7 0.5183  0.876 -0.114  0.330  0.000
CANADIENS      32 28 179 176  0.000 30.263   13  0.350   13  0.038   16  0.008   13 0.5080  1.006 -0.067  0.083  0.000
SABRES         28 31 170 185 -0.002 29.833   17  0.258   17 -0.029   19 -0.063   17 0.4949  1.027 -0.114 -0.012  0.000
PANTHERS       26 32 181 199  0.016 29.739   19  0.225   19 -0.052   18 -0.058   19 0.4905  1.168  0.063 -0.179  0.000
RED WINGS      23 37 168 199 -0.005 30.351   30  0.030   30 -0.136   28 -0.119   30 0.4723  1.054 -0.138 -0.101  0.000
SENATORS       22 37 186 219 -0.010 29.716   31  0.000   31 -0.149   27 -0.119   31 0.4682  1.337  0.227 -0.464  0.000

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ISLANDERS      35 23 169 138  0.007 29.216    4  0.519    4  0.120    3  0.137    4 0.5250  0.767 -0.200  0.475  0.000
BLUE JACKETS   33 26 188 180 -0.011 29.475    9  0.386    9  0.061   14  0.012    9 0.5140  1.134  0.090 -0.067  0.000
CAPITALS       33 27 202 191 -0.014 29.893   11  0.369   10  0.051   11  0.034   11 0.5103  1.224  0.228 -0.160  0.000
PENGUINS       32 28 210 187  0.006 30.236   12  0.356   12  0.040    8  0.105   12 0.5084  1.244  0.325 -0.114  0.000
HURRICANES     31 29 174 167 -0.006 30.101   15  0.318   15  0.015   15  0.011   15 0.5036  0.940 -0.141  0.162  0.000
FLYERS         28 32 178 201 -0.014 30.118   18  0.234   18 -0.045   26 -0.103   18 0.4909  1.138 -0.019 -0.187  0.000
RANGERS        26 33 172 195  0.009 30.127   21  0.205   21 -0.063   22 -0.081   21 0.4876  1.107 -0.036 -0.126  0.000
DEVILS         23 37 176 208  0.017 30.835   28  0.054   29 -0.128   25 -0.090   28 0.4743  1.174  0.039 -0.219  0.000

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION     248 228 0.521    1  0.037
CENTRAL DIVISION      208 210 0.498    2  0.029
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 241 235 0.506    3  0.006
PACIFIC DIVISION      227 251 0.475    4 -0.073

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.124 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Feb 20 05:30:36 2019
games through: Tue Feb 19 2019

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