Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRUINS         39 12 192 111  0.033 25.096    1  0.503    1  0.503    1  0.544    1 0.5650   31  0.916    3  0.332    1  0.755
HURRICANES     34 17 173 136  0.036 25.492    2  0.314    2  0.316    4  0.269    2 0.5412   27  0.970   12  0.118    3  0.419
LIGHTNING      32 16 175 141  0.001 23.392    3  0.296    3  0.298    6  0.204    3 0.5396    9  1.190    5  0.320   14  0.087
DEVILS         32 17 171 131  0.031 24.384    4  0.288    4  0.290    3  0.276    4 0.5364   17  1.051    7  0.220    5  0.331
MAPLE LEAFS    31 21 175 141  0.038 26.055    5  0.195    5  0.189    5  0.265    6 0.5247   19  1.041    8  0.198    4  0.332
JETS           32 20 166 137 -0.028 24.867    6  0.188    6  0.187    9  0.126    5 0.5256   28  0.965   18 -0.030    7  0.283
KRAKEN         29 20 177 151 -0.009 23.775    7  0.153    7  0.150    7  0.164    7 0.5237    8  1.210    6  0.307   17  0.021
AVALANCHE      27 21 151 132  0.001 23.524    8  0.106    9  0.104   10  0.108    8 0.5154   26  0.974   19 -0.037    9  0.254
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 29 22 159 148 -0.025 24.592    9  0.104    8  0.105   17  0.025    9 0.5135   23  1.006   24 -0.084   13  0.134
STARS          28 23 173 133  0.014 25.020   10  0.096   11  0.091    2  0.294   12 0.5122   24  0.990   10  0.167    2  0.421
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WILD           27 21 151 138 -0.027 23.026   11  0.089   10  0.092   14  0.077   11 0.5129   25  0.987   22 -0.054   10  0.208
OILERS         28 22 187 162 -0.024 24.033   12  0.083   12  0.085   12  0.097   10 0.5133    3  1.338    1  0.409   22 -0.216
RANGERS        27 22 157 129  0.004 24.001   13  0.082   13  0.084    8  0.157   13 0.5111   29  0.962   16 -0.002    6  0.316
KINGS          28 25 173 183  0.015 26.541   14  0.057   14  0.064   21 -0.048   14 0.5075    7  1.218   13  0.105   21 -0.201
SABRES         26 24 186 170 -0.003 24.538   15  0.030   15  0.033   15  0.041   15 0.5052    2  1.350    2  0.371   25 -0.290
CAPITALS       27 26 166 152  0.018 26.393   16  0.027   16  0.029   11  0.097   16 0.5034   22  1.010   17 -0.006   11  0.201
PENGUINS       24 25 161 153  0.039 24.794   17  0.005   17  0.006   13  0.095   17 0.5012   12  1.122   11  0.126   15  0.065
PREDATORS      24 24 137 141 -0.024 23.272   18 -0.014   18 -0.015   20 -0.046   18 0.4984   30  0.930   27 -0.241   12  0.149
ISLANDERS      25 27 148 144  0.013 25.882   19 -0.022   19 -0.025   18  0.024   20 0.4951   32  0.897   26 -0.209    8  0.257
SENATORS       24 26 151 159  0.001 24.772   20 -0.028   20 -0.028   22 -0.054   22 0.4945   14  1.105   20 -0.044   19 -0.064
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS       24 28 178 183  0.049 26.635   21 -0.031   21 -0.033   16  0.033   21 0.4951    4  1.327    4  0.330   24 -0.265
FLAMES         24 26 157 152 -0.008 24.498   22 -0.040   22 -0.044   19  0.007   19 0.4956   18  1.049   21 -0.051   16  0.065
BLUES          23 28 156 185 -0.010 25.240   23 -0.093   23 -0.090   25 -0.184   23 0.4897    6  1.242   15  0.000   28 -0.369
RED WINGS      21 27 145 160 -0.026 23.324   24 -0.129   24 -0.127   24 -0.090   24 0.4825   13  1.112   23 -0.071   20 -0.109
FLYERS         21 30 142 162  0.013 25.572   25 -0.150   25 -0.149   23 -0.080   25 0.4797   20  1.019   25 -0.173   18  0.013
CANUCKS        20 29 165 193  0.000 24.439   26 -0.162   26 -0.159   26 -0.203   26 0.4792    1  1.388    9  0.180   32 -0.586
CANADIENS      20 31 134 189 -0.017 25.269   27 -0.208   27 -0.200   29 -0.369   27 0.4722   16  1.078   30 -0.392   27 -0.347
COYOTES        16 34 131 177  0.003 25.113   28 -0.308   28 -0.312   28 -0.262   28 0.4573   15  1.080   28 -0.283   23 -0.242
DUCKS          16 34 125 205 -0.002 25.280   29 -0.320   29 -0.317   32 -0.511   29 0.4564   11  1.127   31 -0.474   31 -0.548
BLACKHAWKS     15 33 118 176 -0.021 23.773   30 -0.343   30 -0.343   30 -0.410   30 0.4544   21  1.015   32 -0.508   26 -0.313
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JACKETS   15 36 131 198 -0.014 25.492   31 -0.378   31 -0.379   31 -0.436   31 0.4494   10  1.147   29 -0.374   30 -0.499
SHARKS         15 36 157 196 -0.036 24.794   32 -0.389   32 -0.394   27 -0.221   32 0.4478    5  1.281   14  0.014   29 -0.457

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KRAKEN         29 20 177 151 -0.009 23.775    7  0.153    7  0.150    7  0.164    7 0.5237    8  1.210    6  0.307   17  0.021
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 29 22 159 148 -0.025 24.592    9  0.104    8  0.105   17  0.025    9 0.5135   23  1.006   24 -0.084   13  0.134
OILERS         28 22 187 162 -0.024 24.033   12  0.083   12  0.085   12  0.097   10 0.5133    3  1.338    1  0.409   22 -0.216
KINGS          28 25 173 183  0.015 26.541   14  0.057   14  0.064   21 -0.048   14 0.5075    7  1.218   13  0.105   21 -0.201
FLAMES         24 26 157 152 -0.008 24.498   22 -0.040   22 -0.044   19  0.007   19 0.4956   18  1.049   21 -0.051   16  0.065
CANUCKS        20 29 165 193  0.000 24.439   26 -0.162   26 -0.159   26 -0.203   26 0.4792    1  1.388    9  0.180   32 -0.586
DUCKS          16 34 125 205 -0.002 25.280   29 -0.320   29 -0.317   32 -0.511   29 0.4564   11  1.127   31 -0.474   31 -0.548
SHARKS         15 36 157 196 -0.036 24.794   32 -0.389   32 -0.394   27 -0.221   32 0.4478    5  1.281   14  0.014   29 -0.457

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS           32 20 166 137 -0.028 24.867    6  0.188    6  0.187    9  0.126    5 0.5256   28  0.965   18 -0.030    7  0.283
AVALANCHE      27 21 151 132  0.001 23.524    8  0.106    9  0.104   10  0.108    8 0.5154   26  0.974   19 -0.037    9  0.254
STARS          28 23 173 133  0.014 25.020   10  0.096   11  0.091    2  0.294   12 0.5122   24  0.990   10  0.167    2  0.421
WILD           27 21 151 138 -0.027 23.026   11  0.089   10  0.092   14  0.077   11 0.5129   25  0.987   22 -0.054   10  0.208
PREDATORS      24 24 137 141 -0.024 23.272   18 -0.014   18 -0.015   20 -0.046   18 0.4984   30  0.930   27 -0.241   12  0.149
BLUES          23 28 156 185 -0.010 25.240   23 -0.093   23 -0.090   25 -0.184   23 0.4897    6  1.242   15  0.000   28 -0.369
COYOTES        16 34 131 177  0.003 25.113   28 -0.308   28 -0.312   28 -0.262   28 0.4573   15  1.080   28 -0.283   23 -0.242
BLACKHAWKS     15 33 118 176 -0.021 23.773   30 -0.343   30 -0.343   30 -0.410   30 0.4544   21  1.015   32 -0.508   26 -0.313

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRUINS         39 12 192 111  0.033 25.096    1  0.503    1  0.503    1  0.544    1 0.5650   31  0.916    3  0.332    1  0.755
LIGHTNING      32 16 175 141  0.001 23.392    3  0.296    3  0.298    6  0.204    3 0.5396    9  1.190    5  0.320   14  0.087
MAPLE LEAFS    31 21 175 141  0.038 26.055    5  0.195    5  0.189    5  0.265    6 0.5247   19  1.041    8  0.198    4  0.332
SABRES         26 24 186 170 -0.003 24.538   15  0.030   15  0.033   15  0.041   15 0.5052    2  1.350    2  0.371   25 -0.290
SENATORS       24 26 151 159  0.001 24.772   20 -0.028   20 -0.028   22 -0.054   22 0.4945   14  1.105   20 -0.044   19 -0.064
PANTHERS       24 28 178 183  0.049 26.635   21 -0.031   21 -0.033   16  0.033   21 0.4951    4  1.327    4  0.330   24 -0.265
RED WINGS      21 27 145 160 -0.026 23.324   24 -0.129   24 -0.127   24 -0.090   24 0.4825   13  1.112   23 -0.071   20 -0.109
CANADIENS      20 31 134 189 -0.017 25.269   27 -0.208   27 -0.200   29 -0.369   27 0.4722   16  1.078   30 -0.392   27 -0.347

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HURRICANES     34 17 173 136  0.036 25.492    2  0.314    2  0.316    4  0.269    2 0.5412   27  0.970   12  0.118    3  0.419
DEVILS         32 17 171 131  0.031 24.384    4  0.288    4  0.290    3  0.276    4 0.5364   17  1.051    7  0.220    5  0.331
RANGERS        27 22 157 129  0.004 24.001   13  0.082   13  0.084    8  0.157   13 0.5111   29  0.962   16 -0.002    6  0.316
CAPITALS       27 26 166 152  0.018 26.393   16  0.027   16  0.029   11  0.097   16 0.5034   22  1.010   17 -0.006   11  0.201
PENGUINS       24 25 161 153  0.039 24.794   17  0.005   17  0.006   13  0.095   17 0.5012   12  1.122   11  0.126   15  0.065
ISLANDERS      25 27 148 144  0.013 25.882   19 -0.022   19 -0.025   18  0.024   20 0.4951   32  0.897   26 -0.209    8  0.257
FLYERS         21 30 142 162  0.013 25.572   25 -0.150   25 -0.149   23 -0.080   25 0.4797   20  1.019   25 -0.173   18  0.013
BLUE JACKETS   15 36 131 198 -0.014 25.492   31 -0.378   31 -0.379   31 -0.436   31 0.4494   10  1.147   29 -0.374   30 -0.499

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION     217 185 0.540    1  0.090
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 205 200 0.506    2  0.069
CENTRAL DIVISION      192 204 0.485    3 -0.047
PACIFIC DIVISION      189 214 0.469    4 -0.108

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.047 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.008 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Feb  5 05:30:11 2023
games through: Sat Feb  4 2023

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