Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT        64 30 301 207  0.037 48.324    1  0.958    1  0.250    1  0.304    1 0.5452  0.939  0.264  0.345  0.000
SAN JOSE       55 40 252 225  0.063 50.050    2  0.717    2  0.131    3  0.135    2 0.5246  0.763 -0.096  0.366  0.000
PITTSBURGH     57 36 286 237 -0.064 44.308    3  0.639    3  0.109    4  0.107    3 0.5225  1.009  0.147  0.067  0.000
DALLAS         53 43 279 237  0.074 50.952    4  0.617    5  0.103    2  0.161    4 0.5204  0.973  0.159  0.164  0.000
ANAHEIM        48 38 213 206  0.079 45.970    5  0.594    4  0.107    7  0.050    5 0.5203  0.711 -0.233  0.334  0.000
COLORADO       48 44 257 252  0.059 48.482    6  0.463    6  0.053   11  0.032    6 0.5114  0.992  0.051  0.012  0.000
MINNESOTA      46 42 235 235  0.040 45.702    7  0.453    7  0.044   10  0.033    7 0.5101  0.894 -0.059  0.124  0.000
CALGARY        45 44 246 246  0.055 46.801    9  0.436    9  0.031   13  0.018    8 0.5073  1.019  0.070 -0.034  0.000
MONTREAL       52 42 295 257 -0.063 44.882    8  0.437    8  0.032    5  0.060    9 0.5066  1.064  0.164 -0.045  0.000
NEW JERSEY     47 40 218 216 -0.047 42.284   11  0.430   11  0.022   24 -0.062   10 0.5058  0.735 -0.322  0.198  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
EDMONTON       41 41 235 251  0.048 42.982   12  0.429   12  0.020   21 -0.050   11 0.5045  1.111  0.113 -0.212  0.000
NASHVILLE      43 45 242 246  0.084 47.185   10  0.431   10  0.024    6  0.056   12 0.5031  1.001  0.087  0.026  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   50 46 295 275 -0.045 46.551   14  0.415   14  0.000    8  0.037   13 0.5027  1.120  0.210 -0.136  0.000
N.Y. RANGERS   47 45 244 226 -0.050 44.459   15  0.403   17 -0.016    9  0.036   14 0.5010  0.777 -0.180  0.253  0.000
CHICAGO        40 42 239 235  0.058 43.163   13  0.422   13  0.010   12  0.030   15 0.5003  1.091  0.168 -0.108  0.000
VANCOUVER      39 43 213 215  0.041 42.619   16  0.402   15 -0.014   14  0.018   16 0.4989  0.851 -0.121  0.156  0.000
CAROLINA       43 39 252 249 -0.094 38.326   18  0.396   18 -0.020   23 -0.056   17 0.4974  1.174  0.184 -0.296  0.000
PHOENIX        38 44 214 231  0.068 43.609   17  0.400   16 -0.015   16 -0.018   18 0.4971  0.969 -0.024 -0.012  0.000
WASHINGTON     46 43 262 254 -0.084 41.924   19  0.393   19 -0.025   20 -0.046   19 0.4963  1.024  0.011 -0.103  0.000
OTTAWA         43 43 266 263 -0.045 41.823   20  0.392   20 -0.026   18 -0.037   20 0.4954  1.191  0.225 -0.300  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON         44 45 227 241 -0.041 43.455   21  0.386   21 -0.031   22 -0.053   21 0.4939  0.796 -0.249  0.144  0.000
BUFFALO        39 43 255 242 -0.059 39.379   22  0.348   22 -0.061   15 -0.009   22 0.4886  1.129  0.176 -0.194  0.000
COLUMBUS       34 48 193 218  0.064 43.470   23  0.318   23 -0.076   17 -0.027   23 0.4837  0.771 -0.249  0.196  0.000
FLORIDA        38 44 216 226 -0.089 38.530   25  0.280   25 -0.090   26 -0.094   24 0.4835  0.870 -0.211  0.023  0.000
ST. LOUIS      33 49 205 237  0.066 43.562   24  0.283   24 -0.089   19 -0.044   25 0.4809  0.928 -0.098  0.010  0.000
TORONTO        36 46 231 260 -0.049 39.876   26  0.255   26 -0.100   27 -0.102   26 0.4803  1.106  0.054 -0.258  0.000
N.Y. ISLANDERS 35 47 194 243 -0.037 40.330   28  0.219   28 -0.111   29 -0.183   27 0.4798  0.879 -0.290 -0.075  0.000
LOS ANGELES    31 49 226 261  0.075 42.820   27  0.250   27 -0.102   25 -0.071   28 0.4796  1.224  0.234 -0.376  0.000
ATLANTA        34 48 216 272 -0.075 39.176   29  0.113   29 -0.142   30 -0.218   29 0.4724  1.062 -0.116 -0.320  0.000
TAMPA BAY      31 51 223 267 -0.080 38.933   30  0.000   30 -0.189   28 -0.171   30 0.4640  1.125  0.009 -0.350  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN JOSE       55 40 252 225  0.063 50.050    2  0.717    2  0.131    3  0.135    2 0.5246  0.763 -0.096  0.366  0.000
DALLAS         53 43 279 237  0.074 50.952    4  0.617    5  0.103    2  0.161    4 0.5204  0.973  0.159  0.164  0.000
ANAHEIM        48 38 213 206  0.079 45.970    5  0.594    4  0.107    7  0.050    5 0.5203  0.711 -0.233  0.334  0.000
PHOENIX        38 44 214 231  0.068 43.609   17  0.400   16 -0.015   16 -0.018   18 0.4971  0.969 -0.024 -0.012  0.000
LOS ANGELES    31 49 226 261  0.075 42.820   27  0.250   27 -0.102   25 -0.071   28 0.4796  1.224  0.234 -0.376  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
COLORADO       48 44 257 252  0.059 48.482    6  0.463    6  0.053   11  0.032    6 0.5114  0.992  0.051  0.012  0.000
MINNESOTA      46 42 235 235  0.040 45.702    7  0.453    7  0.044   10  0.033    7 0.5101  0.894 -0.059  0.124  0.000
CALGARY        45 44 246 246  0.055 46.801    9  0.436    9  0.031   13  0.018    8 0.5073  1.019  0.070 -0.034  0.000
EDMONTON       41 41 235 251  0.048 42.982   12  0.429   12  0.020   21 -0.050   11 0.5045  1.111  0.113 -0.212  0.000
VANCOUVER      39 43 213 215  0.041 42.619   16  0.402   15 -0.014   14  0.018   16 0.4989  0.851 -0.121  0.156  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT        64 30 301 207  0.037 48.324    1  0.958    1  0.250    1  0.304    1 0.5452  0.939  0.264  0.345  0.000
NASHVILLE      43 45 242 246  0.084 47.185   10  0.431   10  0.024    6  0.056   12 0.5031  1.001  0.087  0.026  0.000
CHICAGO        40 42 239 235  0.058 43.163   13  0.422   13  0.010   12  0.030   15 0.5003  1.091  0.168 -0.108  0.000
COLUMBUS       34 48 193 218  0.064 43.470   23  0.318   23 -0.076   17 -0.027   23 0.4837  0.771 -0.249  0.196  0.000
ST. LOUIS      33 49 205 237  0.066 43.562   24  0.283   24 -0.089   19 -0.044   25 0.4809  0.928 -0.098  0.010  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAROLINA       43 39 252 249 -0.094 38.326   18  0.396   18 -0.020   23 -0.056   17 0.4974  1.174  0.184 -0.296  0.000
WASHINGTON     46 43 262 254 -0.084 41.924   19  0.393   19 -0.025   20 -0.046   19 0.4963  1.024  0.011 -0.103  0.000
FLORIDA        38 44 216 226 -0.089 38.530   25  0.280   25 -0.090   26 -0.094   24 0.4835  0.870 -0.211  0.023  0.000
ATLANTA        34 48 216 272 -0.075 39.176   29  0.113   29 -0.142   30 -0.218   29 0.4724  1.062 -0.116 -0.320  0.000
TAMPA BAY      31 51 223 267 -0.080 38.933   30  0.000   30 -0.189   28 -0.171   30 0.4640  1.125  0.009 -0.350  0.000

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MONTREAL       52 42 295 257 -0.063 44.882    8  0.437    8  0.032    5  0.060    9 0.5066  1.064  0.164 -0.045  0.000
OTTAWA         43 43 266 263 -0.045 41.823   20  0.392   20 -0.026   18 -0.037   20 0.4954  1.191  0.225 -0.300  0.000
BOSTON         44 45 227 241 -0.041 43.455   21  0.386   21 -0.031   22 -0.053   21 0.4939  0.796 -0.249  0.144  0.000
BUFFALO        39 43 255 242 -0.059 39.379   22  0.348   22 -0.061   15 -0.009   22 0.4886  1.129  0.176 -0.194  0.000
TORONTO        36 46 231 260 -0.049 39.876   26  0.255   26 -0.100   27 -0.102   26 0.4803  1.106  0.054 -0.258  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PITTSBURGH     57 36 286 237 -0.064 44.308    3  0.639    3  0.109    4  0.107    3 0.5225  1.009  0.147  0.067  0.000
NEW JERSEY     47 40 218 216 -0.047 42.284   11  0.430   11  0.022   24 -0.062   10 0.5058  0.735 -0.322  0.198  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   50 46 295 275 -0.045 46.551   14  0.415   14  0.000    8  0.037   13 0.5027  1.120  0.210 -0.136  0.000
N.Y. RANGERS   47 45 244 226 -0.050 44.459   15  0.403   17 -0.016    9  0.036   14 0.5010  0.777 -0.180  0.253  0.000
N.Y. ISLANDERS 35 47 194 243 -0.037 40.330   28  0.219   28 -0.111   29 -0.183   27 0.4798  0.879 -0.290 -0.075  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   214 214 0.500    1  0.106
PACIFIC DIVISION   225 214 0.513    2  0.086
NORTHWEST DIVISION 219 214 0.506    3  0.021
ATLANTIC DIVISION  236 214 0.524    4 -0.019
NORTHEAST DIVISION 214 219 0.494    5 -0.044
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 192 225 0.460    6 -0.193

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.114 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon May 12 15:24:43 2008
games through: Sun May 11 2008

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