Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         19  8 109  74  0.091 14.278    1  0.235    1  0.235    1  0.273    1 0.5568    6  1.219    3  0.456   12  0.089
LIGHTNING        14 11  98  76  0.129 13.675    9  0.103    9  0.104    2  0.237    8 0.5278    4  1.304    1  0.533   20 -0.059
JETS             20  9 103  75  0.050 15.027    2  0.220    2  0.219    3  0.195    2 0.5500   18  1.072    8  0.193    4  0.196
STARS            17 10  92  69  0.021 13.602    6  0.141    6  0.137    4  0.195    6 0.5327   19  1.070    9  0.191    3  0.199
WILD             18  9  86  65  0.017 13.637    3  0.174    3  0.174    5  0.183    4 0.5400   27  0.869   19 -0.051    1  0.416
DEVILS           18 12 102  82  0.065 15.736    7  0.136    7  0.132    6  0.173    9 0.5267   17  1.081   10  0.183    7  0.164
HURRICANES       17 10 101  81  0.034 13.874    5  0.148    5  0.144    7  0.166    5 0.5380    5  1.225    4  0.357   18 -0.024
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   18 10  99  82  0.049 14.579    4  0.168    4  0.167    8  0.148    3 0.5406    8  1.174    7  0.274   15  0.023
PANTHERS         17 11 106  91  0.054 14.659    8  0.131    8  0.132    9  0.131    7 0.5315    2  1.357    2  0.499   28 -0.237
KINGS            16 11  83  71 -0.040 13.141   11  0.071   12  0.078   10  0.108   12 0.5160   21  1.004   14  0.026    5  0.190
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS      16 11  80  71  0.014 13.732   10  0.094   10  0.102   11  0.074   10 0.5247   26  0.914   22 -0.110    2  0.259
RANGERS          14 13  86  81 -0.086 12.719   16 -0.021   16 -0.015   12  0.024   17 0.4951   12  1.147   12  0.115   21 -0.068
CANUCKS          14 12  85  83 -0.054 12.597   14  0.014   14  0.017   13  0.020   14 0.5010    9  1.174   11  0.145   22 -0.105
AVALANCHE        16 13  95 103  0.052 15.361   12  0.069   11  0.078   14 -0.013   11 0.5164    3  1.311    6  0.292   30 -0.319
BLUE JACKETS     12 15  93  96  0.009 13.833   19 -0.057   19 -0.049   15 -0.018   20 0.4895    1  1.360    5  0.355   32 -0.390
SENATORS         12 15  82  86 -0.028 13.436   22 -0.069   22 -0.064   16 -0.031   23 0.4828   11  1.148   13  0.062   23 -0.123
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 12 15  79  79  0.000 13.758   21 -0.061   21 -0.054   17 -0.032   19 0.4899   22  0.985   23 -0.136   13  0.073
OILERS           15 12  82  79 -0.036 13.350   13  0.038   13  0.044   18 -0.032   13 0.5093   20  1.029   21 -0.084   16  0.020
KRAKEN           14 15  89  88 -0.036 14.382   18 -0.037   18 -0.029   19 -0.055   18 0.4919   14  1.129   15  0.013   24 -0.124
FLAMES           13 15  74  84 -0.042 13.820   20 -0.059   20 -0.050   20 -0.064   21 0.4880   30  0.860   28 -0.308    6  0.179
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUES            13 15  73  87  0.042 14.795   17 -0.024   17 -0.015   21 -0.071   15 0.4987   24  0.960   25 -0.205   14  0.062
SABRES           11 17  85  92 -0.046 13.785   26 -0.126   26 -0.125   22 -0.078   27 0.4666   13  1.143   16  0.009   26 -0.164
ISLANDERS        11 18  77  87 -0.051 14.256   28 -0.142   28 -0.143   23 -0.100   28 0.4657   28  0.867   29 -0.336   10  0.137
FLYERS           12 16  83  98 -0.003 14.347   23 -0.075   23 -0.069   24 -0.111   22 0.4860   15  1.109   20 -0.067   25 -0.155
DUCKS            10 16  64  79 -0.029 13.045   25 -0.124   25 -0.120   25 -0.120   26 0.4673   31  0.841   31 -0.385    9  0.144
BRUINS           15 14  75  87 -0.082 13.914   15 -0.019   15 -0.013   26 -0.133   16 0.4974   29  0.860   30 -0.377   11  0.110
BLACKHAWKS        9 19  68  87  0.007 14.508   31 -0.171   31 -0.175   27 -0.144   31 0.4584   25  0.934   27 -0.306   17  0.018
RED WINGS        11 17  73  88 -0.104 13.187   29 -0.146   29 -0.148   28 -0.146   30 0.4610   23  0.983   26 -0.252   19 -0.040
CANADIENS        11 17  78 100 -0.051 13.831   27 -0.129   27 -0.127   29 -0.148   25 0.4707   10  1.162   18 -0.038   29 -0.258
SHARKS           10 20  82 108  0.027 15.815   30 -0.157   30 -0.160   30 -0.159   29 0.4626   16  1.090   24 -0.138   27 -0.180
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PENGUINS         12 17  84 110  0.005 15.057   24 -0.087   24 -0.081   31 -0.185   24 0.4807    7  1.212   17 -0.011   31 -0.359
PREDATORS         7 21  61  88  0.018 14.703   32 -0.238   32 -0.246   32 -0.189   32 0.4441   32  0.759   32 -0.540    8  0.162

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   18 10  99  82  0.049 14.579    4  0.168    4  0.167    8  0.148    3 0.5406    8  1.174    7  0.274   15  0.023
KINGS            16 11  83  71 -0.040 13.141   11  0.071   12  0.078   10  0.108   12 0.5160   21  1.004   14  0.026    5  0.190
CANUCKS          14 12  85  83 -0.054 12.597   14  0.014   14  0.017   13  0.020   14 0.5010    9  1.174   11  0.145   22 -0.105
OILERS           15 12  82  79 -0.036 13.350   13  0.038   13  0.044   18 -0.032   13 0.5093   20  1.029   21 -0.084   16  0.020
KRAKEN           14 15  89  88 -0.036 14.382   18 -0.037   18 -0.029   19 -0.055   18 0.4919   14  1.129   15  0.013   24 -0.124
FLAMES           13 15  74  84 -0.042 13.820   20 -0.059   20 -0.050   20 -0.064   21 0.4880   30  0.860   28 -0.308    6  0.179
DUCKS            10 16  64  79 -0.029 13.045   25 -0.124   25 -0.120   25 -0.120   26 0.4673   31  0.841   31 -0.385    9  0.144
SHARKS           10 20  82 108  0.027 15.815   30 -0.157   30 -0.160   30 -0.159   29 0.4626   16  1.090   24 -0.138   27 -0.180

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS             20  9 103  75  0.050 15.027    2  0.220    2  0.219    3  0.195    2 0.5500   18  1.072    8  0.193    4  0.196
STARS            17 10  92  69  0.021 13.602    6  0.141    6  0.137    4  0.195    6 0.5327   19  1.070    9  0.191    3  0.199
WILD             18  9  86  65  0.017 13.637    3  0.174    3  0.174    5  0.183    4 0.5400   27  0.869   19 -0.051    1  0.416
AVALANCHE        16 13  95 103  0.052 15.361   12  0.069   11  0.078   14 -0.013   11 0.5164    3  1.311    6  0.292   30 -0.319
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 12 15  79  79  0.000 13.758   21 -0.061   21 -0.054   17 -0.032   19 0.4899   22  0.985   23 -0.136   13  0.073
BLUES            13 15  73  87  0.042 14.795   17 -0.024   17 -0.015   21 -0.071   15 0.4987   24  0.960   25 -0.205   14  0.062
BLACKHAWKS        9 19  68  87  0.007 14.508   31 -0.171   31 -0.175   27 -0.144   31 0.4584   25  0.934   27 -0.306   17  0.018
PREDATORS         7 21  61  88  0.018 14.703   32 -0.238   32 -0.246   32 -0.189   32 0.4441   32  0.759   32 -0.540    8  0.162

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         19  8 109  74  0.091 14.278    1  0.235    1  0.235    1  0.273    1 0.5568    6  1.219    3  0.456   12  0.089
DEVILS           18 12 102  82  0.065 15.736    7  0.136    7  0.132    6  0.173    9 0.5267   17  1.081   10  0.183    7  0.164
HURRICANES       17 10 101  81  0.034 13.874    5  0.148    5  0.144    7  0.166    5 0.5380    5  1.225    4  0.357   18 -0.024
RANGERS          14 13  86  81 -0.086 12.719   16 -0.021   16 -0.015   12  0.024   17 0.4951   12  1.147   12  0.115   21 -0.068
BLUE JACKETS     12 15  93  96  0.009 13.833   19 -0.057   19 -0.049   15 -0.018   20 0.4895    1  1.360    5  0.355   32 -0.390
ISLANDERS        11 18  77  87 -0.051 14.256   28 -0.142   28 -0.143   23 -0.100   28 0.4657   28  0.867   29 -0.336   10  0.137
FLYERS           12 16  83  98 -0.003 14.347   23 -0.075   23 -0.069   24 -0.111   22 0.4860   15  1.109   20 -0.067   25 -0.155
PENGUINS         12 17  84 110  0.005 15.057   24 -0.087   24 -0.081   31 -0.185   24 0.4807    7  1.212   17 -0.011   31 -0.359

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        14 11  98  76  0.129 13.675    9  0.103    9  0.104    2  0.237    8 0.5278    4  1.304    1  0.533   20 -0.059
PANTHERS         17 11 106  91  0.054 14.659    8  0.131    8  0.132    9  0.131    7 0.5315    2  1.357    2  0.499   28 -0.237
MAPLE LEAFS      16 11  80  71  0.014 13.732   10  0.094   10  0.102   11  0.074   10 0.5247   26  0.914   22 -0.110    2  0.259
SENATORS         12 15  82  86 -0.028 13.436   22 -0.069   22 -0.064   16 -0.031   23 0.4828   11  1.148   13  0.062   23 -0.123
SABRES           11 17  85  92 -0.046 13.785   26 -0.126   26 -0.125   22 -0.078   27 0.4666   13  1.143   16  0.009   26 -0.164
BRUINS           15 14  75  87 -0.082 13.914   15 -0.019   15 -0.013   26 -0.133   16 0.4974   29  0.860   30 -0.377   11  0.110
RED WINGS        11 17  73  88 -0.104 13.187   29 -0.146   29 -0.148   28 -0.146   30 0.4610   23  0.983   26 -0.252   19 -0.040
CANADIENS        11 17  78 100 -0.051 13.831   27 -0.129   27 -0.127   29 -0.148   25 0.4707   10  1.162   18 -0.038   29 -0.258

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 115 109 0.513    1  0.051
CENTRAL DIVISION      112 111 0.502    2  0.026
ATLANTIC DIVISION     107 113 0.486    3 -0.024
PACIFIC DIVISION      110 111 0.498    4 -0.041

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.070 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Dec 10 05:30:08 2024
games through: Mon Dec  9 2024

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