Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        44 30 268 196  0.002 36.777    8  0.169    8  0.159    2  0.297    8 0.5233    8  1.144    1  0.398    7  0.197
CAPITALS         48 27 271 204  0.010 37.552    3  0.243    3  0.242    4  0.268    3 0.5348    9  1.143    2  0.367    9  0.169
SABRES           32 42 244 263 -0.009 37.103   25 -0.118   25 -0.119   22 -0.095   25 0.4834    1  1.350    3  0.275   31 -0.466
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   45 29 252 198 -0.002 36.759    6  0.191    6  0.182    5  0.244    6 0.5257   14  1.087    4  0.274    5  0.215
STARS            49 25 254 189  0.012 37.045    2  0.277    2  0.284    3  0.283    2 0.5394   17  1.042    5  0.259    3  0.308
AVALANCHE        46 30 254 213 -0.010 37.675    7  0.179    7  0.172    7  0.148    7 0.5242   12  1.123    6  0.222   14  0.074
JETS             51 24 257 177 -0.000 37.154    1  0.297    1  0.307    1  0.320    1 0.5430   28  0.957    7  0.196    1  0.443
BLUE JACKETS     34 39 242 246 -0.001 36.784   19 -0.048   19 -0.057   17 -0.049   19 0.4914    2  1.253    8  0.192   28 -0.289
MAPLE LEAFS      46 29 245 221 -0.004 37.478    5  0.196    5  0.190   12  0.076    5 0.5270   10  1.143    9  0.175   20 -0.023
HURRICANES       46 28 243 197  0.001 36.933    4  0.213    4  0.208    6  0.191    4 0.5288   16  1.047   10  0.172    6  0.210
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OILERS           43 31 239 217  0.001 37.119   10  0.137   10  0.138   11  0.079   10 0.5195   13  1.106   11  0.132   15  0.026
PANTHERS         44 31 237 204  0.002 37.583    9  0.151    9  0.149   10  0.126    9 0.5212   20  1.008   12  0.061    8  0.190
RANGERS          36 39 229 226 -0.014 37.240   17 -0.036   18 -0.044   14  0.031   17 0.4943   15  1.081   13  0.054   17  0.009
CANADIENS        35 39 223 248  0.017 37.833   16 -0.028   16 -0.032   18 -0.065   16 0.4955    6  1.156   14  0.050   25 -0.180
BLUES            41 35 231 213 -0.000 38.080   13  0.056   13  0.067   13  0.074   13 0.5092   23  0.997   15 -0.004   10  0.151
KRAKEN           32 44 229 245 -0.013 38.028   26 -0.148   26 -0.145   24 -0.111   26 0.4799    7  1.146   16 -0.008   26 -0.215
DEVILS           40 36 227 201  0.023 38.707   14  0.049   14  0.059    9  0.132   14 0.5087   30  0.917   17 -0.037    4  0.301
PENGUINS         30 45 218 274  0.000 38.130   29 -0.178   29 -0.170   30 -0.242   29 0.4765    3  1.195   18 -0.077   29 -0.407
KINGS            42 32 219 187  0.002 37.042   11  0.109   11  0.114    8  0.136   11 0.5159   31  0.867   19 -0.088    2  0.360
SENATORS         39 35 213 214  0.009 37.484   15  0.040   15  0.052   15  0.005   15 0.5077   27  0.963   20 -0.111   13  0.121
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLYERS           31 45 217 263  0.001 38.598   27 -0.162   27 -0.155   28 -0.194   27 0.4783   11  1.124   21 -0.118   27 -0.269
CANUCKS          34 41 213 234 -0.011 37.512   22 -0.079   22 -0.087   20 -0.071   22 0.4874   19  1.021   22 -0.120   19 -0.021
RED WINGS        34 40 211 234 -0.019 36.828   21 -0.073   21 -0.081   23 -0.104   21 0.4885   18  1.040   23 -0.130   22 -0.078
BLACKHAWKS       21 54 203 272 -0.004 38.076   31 -0.376   31 -0.378   31 -0.277   31 0.4466    4  1.180   24 -0.132   30 -0.422
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 34 41 212 229  0.002 37.920   20 -0.069   20 -0.078   19 -0.068   20 0.4891   25  0.989   25 -0.155   16  0.019
WILD             41 35 208 219  0.009 38.540   12  0.059   12  0.075   16 -0.027   12 0.5102   29  0.922   26 -0.189   12  0.136
DUCKS            33 41 205 233 -0.008 37.233   23 -0.090   23 -0.094   26 -0.132   23 0.4858   21  1.007   27 -0.198   21 -0.067
ISLANDERS        32 42 203 229 -0.008 37.209   24 -0.116   24 -0.117   25 -0.118   24 0.4834   26  0.976   28 -0.220   18 -0.017
SHARKS           20 54 193 282 -0.003 37.757   32 -0.398   32 -0.395   32 -0.352   32 0.4442    5  1.165   29 -0.225   32 -0.479
BRUINS           30 45 196 248  0.009 38.309   28 -0.171   28 -0.164   27 -0.182   28 0.4775   22  0.997   30 -0.259   23 -0.105
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLAMES           35 39 194 219  0.000 37.377   18 -0.038   17 -0.044   21 -0.081   18 0.4934   32  0.865   31 -0.307   11  0.145
PREDATORS        27 48 190 245 -0.000 38.137   30 -0.240   30 -0.238   29 -0.240   30 0.4663   24  0.992   32 -0.323   24 -0.157

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   45 29 252 198 -0.002 36.759    6  0.191    6  0.182    5  0.244    6 0.5257   14  1.087    4  0.274    5  0.215
OILERS           43 31 239 217  0.001 37.119   10  0.137   10  0.138   11  0.079   10 0.5195   13  1.106   11  0.132   15  0.026
KRAKEN           32 44 229 245 -0.013 38.028   26 -0.148   26 -0.145   24 -0.111   26 0.4799    7  1.146   16 -0.008   26 -0.215
KINGS            42 32 219 187  0.002 37.042   11  0.109   11  0.114    8  0.136   11 0.5159   31  0.867   19 -0.088    2  0.360
CANUCKS          34 41 213 234 -0.011 37.512   22 -0.079   22 -0.087   20 -0.071   22 0.4874   19  1.021   22 -0.120   19 -0.021
DUCKS            33 41 205 233 -0.008 37.233   23 -0.090   23 -0.094   26 -0.132   23 0.4858   21  1.007   27 -0.198   21 -0.067
SHARKS           20 54 193 282 -0.003 37.757   32 -0.398   32 -0.395   32 -0.352   32 0.4442    5  1.165   29 -0.225   32 -0.479
FLAMES           35 39 194 219  0.000 37.377   18 -0.038   17 -0.044   21 -0.081   18 0.4934   32  0.865   31 -0.307   11  0.145

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
STARS            49 25 254 189  0.012 37.045    2  0.277    2  0.284    3  0.283    2 0.5394   17  1.042    5  0.259    3  0.308
AVALANCHE        46 30 254 213 -0.010 37.675    7  0.179    7  0.172    7  0.148    7 0.5242   12  1.123    6  0.222   14  0.074
JETS             51 24 257 177 -0.000 37.154    1  0.297    1  0.307    1  0.320    1 0.5430   28  0.957    7  0.196    1  0.443
BLUES            41 35 231 213 -0.000 38.080   13  0.056   13  0.067   13  0.074   13 0.5092   23  0.997   15 -0.004   10  0.151
BLACKHAWKS       21 54 203 272 -0.004 38.076   31 -0.376   31 -0.378   31 -0.277   31 0.4466    4  1.180   24 -0.132   30 -0.422
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 34 41 212 229  0.002 37.920   20 -0.069   20 -0.078   19 -0.068   20 0.4891   25  0.989   25 -0.155   16  0.019
WILD             41 35 208 219  0.009 38.540   12  0.059   12  0.075   16 -0.027   12 0.5102   29  0.922   26 -0.189   12  0.136
PREDATORS        27 48 190 245 -0.000 38.137   30 -0.240   30 -0.238   29 -0.240   30 0.4663   24  0.992   32 -0.323   24 -0.157

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         48 27 271 204  0.010 37.552    3  0.243    3  0.242    4  0.268    3 0.5348    9  1.143    2  0.367    9  0.169
BLUE JACKETS     34 39 242 246 -0.001 36.784   19 -0.048   19 -0.057   17 -0.049   19 0.4914    2  1.253    8  0.192   28 -0.289
HURRICANES       46 28 243 197  0.001 36.933    4  0.213    4  0.208    6  0.191    4 0.5288   16  1.047   10  0.172    6  0.210
RANGERS          36 39 229 226 -0.014 37.240   17 -0.036   18 -0.044   14  0.031   17 0.4943   15  1.081   13  0.054   17  0.009
DEVILS           40 36 227 201  0.023 38.707   14  0.049   14  0.059    9  0.132   14 0.5087   30  0.917   17 -0.037    4  0.301
PENGUINS         30 45 218 274  0.000 38.130   29 -0.178   29 -0.170   30 -0.242   29 0.4765    3  1.195   18 -0.077   29 -0.407
FLYERS           31 45 217 263  0.001 38.598   27 -0.162   27 -0.155   28 -0.194   27 0.4783   11  1.124   21 -0.118   27 -0.269
ISLANDERS        32 42 203 229 -0.008 37.209   24 -0.116   24 -0.117   25 -0.118   24 0.4834   26  0.976   28 -0.220   18 -0.017

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        44 30 268 196  0.002 36.777    8  0.169    8  0.159    2  0.297    8 0.5233    8  1.144    1  0.398    7  0.197
SABRES           32 42 244 263 -0.009 37.103   25 -0.118   25 -0.119   22 -0.095   25 0.4834    1  1.350    3  0.275   31 -0.466
MAPLE LEAFS      46 29 245 221 -0.004 37.478    5  0.196    5  0.190   12  0.076    5 0.5270   10  1.143    9  0.175   20 -0.023
PANTHERS         44 31 237 204  0.002 37.583    9  0.151    9  0.149   10  0.126    9 0.5212   20  1.008   12  0.061    8  0.190
CANADIENS        35 39 223 248  0.017 37.833   16 -0.028   16 -0.032   18 -0.065   16 0.4955    6  1.156   14  0.050   25 -0.180
SENATORS         39 35 213 214  0.009 37.484   15  0.040   15  0.052   15  0.005   15 0.5077   27  0.963   20 -0.111   13  0.121
RED WINGS        34 40 211 234 -0.019 36.828   21 -0.073   21 -0.081   23 -0.104   21 0.4885   18  1.040   23 -0.130   22 -0.078
BRUINS           30 45 196 248  0.009 38.309   28 -0.171   28 -0.164   27 -0.182   28 0.4775   22  0.997   30 -0.259   23 -0.105

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      310 292 0.515    1  0.035
ATLANTIC DIVISION     304 291 0.511    2  0.009
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 297 301 0.497    3  0.003
PACIFIC DIVISION      284 311 0.477    4 -0.047

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.132 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Apr  3 05:30:12 2025
games through: Wed Apr  2 2025

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.