Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        43 30 264 195  0.003 36.304    9  0.159    9  0.150    2  0.288    9 0.5221    7  1.149    1  0.394    9  0.181
CAPITALS         47 26 266 196  0.006 36.416    3  0.244    3  0.245    3  0.285    3 0.5352   10  1.137    2  0.375    6  0.194
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   45 28 250 195 -0.002 36.238    4  0.202    5  0.196    5  0.252    4 0.5276   14  1.090    3  0.285    5  0.219
STARS            49 25 254 189  0.012 37.033    2  0.276    2  0.285    4  0.284    2 0.5394   18  1.041    4  0.258    3  0.310
SABRES           31 42 239 261 -0.011 36.587   25 -0.134   25 -0.132   24 -0.109   25 0.4813    1  1.346    5  0.256   31 -0.474
AVALANCHE        45 30 251 211 -0.006 37.274    8  0.171    8  0.165    7  0.150    8 0.5235   11  1.133    6  0.236   14  0.064
JETS             51 23 256 173 -0.004 36.527    1  0.309    1  0.320    1  0.335    1 0.5449   28  0.955    7  0.209    1  0.461
MAPLE LEAFS      45 29 242 219 -0.004 36.981    6  0.185    6  0.182   12  0.073    6 0.5257    9  1.146    8  0.176   20 -0.030
HURRICANES       45 28 238 196 -0.002 36.360    5  0.201    4  0.197    6  0.174    5 0.5273   17  1.048    9  0.156    7  0.192
BLUE JACKETS     33 39 234 242  0.004 36.437   19 -0.058   19 -0.066   18 -0.058   19 0.4902    2  1.228   10  0.148   27 -0.265
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OILERS           42 31 236 215 -0.005 36.451   10  0.124   10  0.124   13  0.071   10 0.5176   13  1.110   11  0.128   16  0.013
PANTHERS         44 29 233 198 -0.001 36.445    7  0.178    7  0.173    8  0.133    7 0.5244   20  1.021   12  0.083    8  0.182
CANADIENS        34 39 220 246  0.017 37.316   17 -0.037   17 -0.044   19 -0.068   17 0.4937    5  1.164   13  0.057   25 -0.194
RANGERS          35 39 224 222 -0.012 36.799   18 -0.043   18 -0.055   14  0.032   18 0.4926   15  1.070   14  0.041   15  0.023
BLUES            40 35 229 212  0.004 37.710   15  0.052   14  0.060   11  0.075   15 0.5082   21  1.014   15  0.018   13  0.133
KRAKEN           31 44 224 245 -0.013 37.562   28 -0.165   28 -0.159   26 -0.136   28 0.4781    8  1.149   16 -0.030   26 -0.241
DEVILS           40 36 227 201  0.023 38.700   14  0.053   15  0.059    9  0.133   14 0.5087   29  0.917   17 -0.037    4  0.302
PENGUINS         30 45 218 274  0.001 38.132   29 -0.181   29 -0.170   30 -0.242   29 0.4765    3  1.196   18 -0.077   29 -0.407
CANUCKS          34 40 213 229 -0.007 37.086   20 -0.066   21 -0.074   17 -0.045   21 0.4894   19  1.025   19 -0.091   18  0.000
SENATORS         39 34 211 209  0.013 37.072   13  0.058   13  0.067   15  0.020   13 0.5099   27  0.959   20 -0.102   12  0.142
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS            41 32 215 186 -0.001 36.466   11  0.099   11  0.102   10  0.121   11 0.5142   32  0.867   21 -0.103    2  0.345
RED WINGS        34 39 210 232 -0.023 36.232   21 -0.066   20 -0.073   22 -0.105   20 0.4896   16  1.058   22 -0.111   23 -0.099
FLYERS           31 45 217 263  0.002 38.605   27 -0.164   26 -0.156   28 -0.194   27 0.4783   12  1.124   23 -0.119   28 -0.269
BLACKHAWKS       21 53 201 269 -0.005 37.537   31 -0.370   31 -0.372   31 -0.279   31 0.4474    4  1.190   24 -0.121   30 -0.437
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 33 41 209 228  0.006 37.535   22 -0.080   22 -0.087   21 -0.076   22 0.4876   23  0.993   25 -0.159   17  0.006
DUCKS            32 41 201 230 -0.000 36.949   23 -0.099   23 -0.102   25 -0.130   23 0.4849   22  1.006   26 -0.197   21 -0.063
ISLANDERS        32 41 202 225 -0.012 36.561   24 -0.107   24 -0.110   23 -0.109   24 0.4846   25  0.981   27 -0.205   19 -0.013
WILD             41 34 204 214  0.006 37.950   12  0.074   12  0.085   16 -0.027   12 0.5118   30  0.908   28 -0.206   10  0.152
SHARKS           20 53 190 278 -0.002 37.275   32 -0.390   32 -0.388   32 -0.354   32 0.4452    6  1.164   29 -0.229   32 -0.478
BRUINS           30 44 193 244  0.007 37.725   26 -0.164   27 -0.156   27 -0.182   26 0.4786   24  0.992   30 -0.266   22 -0.099
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLAMES           35 38 193 216  0.000 36.858   16 -0.027   16 -0.033   20 -0.072   16 0.4950   31  0.870   31 -0.293   11  0.149
PREDATORS        27 47 186 237 -0.000 37.616   30 -0.235   30 -0.229   29 -0.230   30 0.4675   26  0.964   32 -0.346   24 -0.114

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   45 28 250 195 -0.002 36.238    4  0.202    5  0.196    5  0.252    4 0.5276   14  1.090    3  0.285    5  0.219
OILERS           42 31 236 215 -0.005 36.451   10  0.124   10  0.124   13  0.071   10 0.5176   13  1.110   11  0.128   16  0.013
KRAKEN           31 44 224 245 -0.013 37.562   28 -0.165   28 -0.159   26 -0.136   28 0.4781    8  1.149   16 -0.030   26 -0.241
CANUCKS          34 40 213 229 -0.007 37.086   20 -0.066   21 -0.074   17 -0.045   21 0.4894   19  1.025   19 -0.091   18  0.000
KINGS            41 32 215 186 -0.001 36.466   11  0.099   11  0.102   10  0.121   11 0.5142   32  0.867   21 -0.103    2  0.345
DUCKS            32 41 201 230 -0.000 36.949   23 -0.099   23 -0.102   25 -0.130   23 0.4849   22  1.006   26 -0.197   21 -0.063
SHARKS           20 53 190 278 -0.002 37.275   32 -0.390   32 -0.388   32 -0.354   32 0.4452    6  1.164   29 -0.229   32 -0.478
FLAMES           35 38 193 216  0.000 36.858   16 -0.027   16 -0.033   20 -0.072   16 0.4950   31  0.870   31 -0.293   11  0.149

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
STARS            49 25 254 189  0.012 37.033    2  0.276    2  0.285    4  0.284    2 0.5394   18  1.041    4  0.258    3  0.310
AVALANCHE        45 30 251 211 -0.006 37.274    8  0.171    8  0.165    7  0.150    8 0.5235   11  1.133    6  0.236   14  0.064
JETS             51 23 256 173 -0.004 36.527    1  0.309    1  0.320    1  0.335    1 0.5449   28  0.955    7  0.209    1  0.461
BLUES            40 35 229 212  0.004 37.710   15  0.052   14  0.060   11  0.075   15 0.5082   21  1.014   15  0.018   13  0.133
BLACKHAWKS       21 53 201 269 -0.005 37.537   31 -0.370   31 -0.372   31 -0.279   31 0.4474    4  1.190   24 -0.121   30 -0.437
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 33 41 209 228  0.006 37.535   22 -0.080   22 -0.087   21 -0.076   22 0.4876   23  0.993   25 -0.159   17  0.006
WILD             41 34 204 214  0.006 37.950   12  0.074   12  0.085   16 -0.027   12 0.5118   30  0.908   28 -0.206   10  0.152
PREDATORS        27 47 186 237 -0.000 37.616   30 -0.235   30 -0.229   29 -0.230   30 0.4675   26  0.964   32 -0.346   24 -0.114

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         47 26 266 196  0.006 36.416    3  0.244    3  0.245    3  0.285    3 0.5352   10  1.137    2  0.375    6  0.194
HURRICANES       45 28 238 196 -0.002 36.360    5  0.201    4  0.197    6  0.174    5 0.5273   17  1.048    9  0.156    7  0.192
BLUE JACKETS     33 39 234 242  0.004 36.437   19 -0.058   19 -0.066   18 -0.058   19 0.4902    2  1.228   10  0.148   27 -0.265
RANGERS          35 39 224 222 -0.012 36.799   18 -0.043   18 -0.055   14  0.032   18 0.4926   15  1.070   14  0.041   15  0.023
DEVILS           40 36 227 201  0.023 38.700   14  0.053   15  0.059    9  0.133   14 0.5087   29  0.917   17 -0.037    4  0.302
PENGUINS         30 45 218 274  0.001 38.132   29 -0.181   29 -0.170   30 -0.242   29 0.4765    3  1.196   18 -0.077   29 -0.407
FLYERS           31 45 217 263  0.002 38.605   27 -0.164   26 -0.156   28 -0.194   27 0.4783   12  1.124   23 -0.119   28 -0.269
ISLANDERS        32 41 202 225 -0.012 36.561   24 -0.107   24 -0.110   23 -0.109   24 0.4846   25  0.981   27 -0.205   19 -0.013

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        43 30 264 195  0.003 36.304    9  0.159    9  0.150    2  0.288    9 0.5221    7  1.149    1  0.394    9  0.181
SABRES           31 42 239 261 -0.011 36.587   25 -0.134   25 -0.132   24 -0.109   25 0.4813    1  1.346    5  0.256   31 -0.474
MAPLE LEAFS      45 29 242 219 -0.004 36.981    6  0.185    6  0.182   12  0.073    6 0.5257    9  1.146    8  0.176   20 -0.030
PANTHERS         44 29 233 198 -0.001 36.445    7  0.178    7  0.173    8  0.133    7 0.5244   20  1.021   12  0.083    8  0.182
CANADIENS        34 39 220 246  0.017 37.316   17 -0.037   17 -0.044   19 -0.068   17 0.4937    5  1.164   13  0.057   25 -0.194
SENATORS         39 34 211 209  0.013 37.072   13  0.058   13  0.067   15  0.020   13 0.5099   27  0.959   20 -0.102   12  0.142
RED WINGS        34 39 210 232 -0.023 36.232   21 -0.066   20 -0.073   22 -0.105   20 0.4896   16  1.058   22 -0.111   23 -0.099
BRUINS           30 44 193 244  0.007 37.725   26 -0.164   27 -0.156   27 -0.182   26 0.4786   24  0.992   30 -0.266   22 -0.099

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      307 288 0.516    1  0.038
ATLANTIC DIVISION     300 286 0.512    2  0.007
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 293 299 0.495    3  0.003
PACIFIC DIVISION      280 307 0.477    4 -0.048

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.132 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Apr  1 05:30:10 2025
games through: Mon Mar 31 2025

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