Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        19 13 126  90  0.110 17.302    5  0.171    6  0.163    1  0.332    4 0.5342    3  1.258    1  0.568   13  0.095
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   23 11 120  96  0.071 17.980    3  0.250    3  0.256    5  0.214    1 0.5517    9  1.164    2  0.330   12  0.098
PANTHERS         22 14 126 112  0.065 19.099    4  0.174    4  0.176    9  0.104    5 0.5336    4  1.243    3  0.321   23 -0.114
AVALANCHE        21 15 121 120  0.018 18.509   12  0.113   12  0.118   14  0.024   12 0.5204    2  1.302    4  0.320   27 -0.271
CAPITALS         23 11 125  89  0.085 18.020    2  0.256    2  0.257    3  0.272    3 0.5488   13  1.100    5  0.308    5  0.235
JETS             25 11 133  89  0.022 18.241    1  0.259    1  0.260    2  0.282    2 0.5495   14  1.084    6  0.299    3  0.266
BLUE JACKETS     14 21 117 127  0.019 18.121   23 -0.116   23 -0.114   17 -0.048   24 0.4786    1  1.319    7  0.271   30 -0.367
HURRICANES       21 13 118  96  0.015 17.266    7  0.154    7  0.153    6  0.166    6 0.5308   10  1.137    8  0.249   15  0.084
DEVILS           23 14 124  91  0.025 18.761    6  0.170    5  0.166    4  0.253    7 0.5286   25  0.981    9  0.147    1  0.359
STARS            20 13 105  85  0.013 16.686    9  0.136   11  0.135    7  0.163    9 0.5265   21  1.024   10  0.107    6  0.218
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CANUCKS          17 17 107 107 -0.047 16.590   16 -0.021   16 -0.024   15  0.016   17 0.4947   12  1.103   11  0.056   19 -0.024
FLYERS           15 20 108 130 -0.025 17.619   22 -0.105   22 -0.099   28 -0.163   22 0.4826    6  1.242   12  0.053   31 -0.379
CANADIENS        14 20 101 123 -0.077 16.393   26 -0.149   26 -0.147   25 -0.155   26 0.4722    7  1.235   13  0.052   29 -0.362
OILERS           21 13 111  95  0.004 17.224    8  0.147    8  0.150   12  0.074    8 0.5286   15  1.049   14  0.048   11  0.099
MAPLE LEAFS      21 14 108  98  0.013 17.833   11  0.132   10  0.136   11  0.074   11 0.5246   17  1.046   15  0.044    9  0.103
PENGUINS         16 20 112 133 -0.010 18.361   21 -0.079   21 -0.073   29 -0.177   20 0.4859    5  1.242   16  0.040   32 -0.394
SENATORS         18 16 105  98 -0.020 16.915   14  0.024   14  0.026   13  0.051   14 0.5052   16  1.048   17  0.025   17  0.077
SABRES           12 23 104 120 -0.058 17.133   31 -0.223   31 -0.225   24 -0.152   31 0.4559    8  1.185   18 -0.009   28 -0.294
KINGS            19 15 104  88 -0.027 16.734   13  0.057   13  0.058    8  0.132   13 0.5098   27  0.947   19 -0.012    2  0.275
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 16 18 102  99  0.020 17.526   17 -0.024   17 -0.027   16  0.010   16 0.4976   24  0.993   20 -0.081   10  0.102
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WILD             21 14 104  96  0.019 17.937   10  0.135    9  0.138   10  0.081   10 0.5249   28  0.924   21 -0.089    4  0.251
RANGERS          16 18  96 102 -0.060 16.523   20 -0.064   20 -0.065   19 -0.063   21 0.4858   19  1.044   22 -0.095   20 -0.031
SHARKS           11 26 101 133  0.030 19.520   32 -0.243   32 -0.244   31 -0.185   32 0.4545   11  1.121   23 -0.123   26 -0.247
KRAKEN           15 21 101 113 -0.021 18.166   24 -0.119   24 -0.115   23 -0.142   23 0.4788   18  1.045   24 -0.172   22 -0.111
FLAMES           16 18  95 106 -0.034 16.864   19 -0.050   19 -0.052   18 -0.050   19 0.4889   26  0.960   25 -0.179   16  0.079
BLACKHAWKS       12 23  91 112 -0.010 17.845   28 -0.201   28 -0.200   26 -0.158   28 0.4614   20  1.040   26 -0.195   24 -0.121
ISLANDERS        13 22  93 113 -0.058 17.183   27 -0.189   27 -0.187   30 -0.184   27 0.4625   23  0.994   27 -0.275   21 -0.093
RED WINGS        13 21  88 111 -0.121 15.822   29 -0.204   29 -0.203   32 -0.231   30 0.4584   22  1.003   28 -0.311   25 -0.151
BLUES            16 20  91 107  0.044 19.029   18 -0.044   18 -0.045   20 -0.071   18 0.4921   31  0.845   29 -0.328    7  0.186
BRUINS           19 17  95 109 -0.056 17.620   15  0.004   15  0.010   21 -0.124   15 0.5031   29  0.882   30 -0.340   14  0.093
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DUCKS            13 20  82 103 -0.007 16.854   25 -0.135   25 -0.131   27 -0.162   25 0.4736   30  0.862   31 -0.400   18  0.077
PREDATORS        11 24  84 107  0.035 18.449   30 -0.215   30 -0.216   22 -0.131   29 0.4604   32  0.826   32 -0.408    8  0.146

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   23 11 120  96  0.071 17.980    3  0.250    3  0.256    5  0.214    1 0.5517    9  1.164    2  0.330   12  0.098
CANUCKS          17 17 107 107 -0.047 16.590   16 -0.021   16 -0.024   15  0.016   17 0.4947   12  1.103   11  0.056   19 -0.024
OILERS           21 13 111  95  0.004 17.224    8  0.147    8  0.150   12  0.074    8 0.5286   15  1.049   14  0.048   11  0.099
KINGS            19 15 104  88 -0.027 16.734   13  0.057   13  0.058    8  0.132   13 0.5098   27  0.947   19 -0.012    2  0.275
SHARKS           11 26 101 133  0.030 19.520   32 -0.243   32 -0.244   31 -0.185   32 0.4545   11  1.121   23 -0.123   26 -0.247
KRAKEN           15 21 101 113 -0.021 18.166   24 -0.119   24 -0.115   23 -0.142   23 0.4788   18  1.045   24 -0.172   22 -0.111
FLAMES           16 18  95 106 -0.034 16.864   19 -0.050   19 -0.052   18 -0.050   19 0.4889   26  0.960   25 -0.179   16  0.079
DUCKS            13 20  82 103 -0.007 16.854   25 -0.135   25 -0.131   27 -0.162   25 0.4736   30  0.862   31 -0.400   18  0.077

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE        21 15 121 120  0.018 18.509   12  0.113   12  0.118   14  0.024   12 0.5204    2  1.302    4  0.320   27 -0.271
JETS             25 11 133  89  0.022 18.241    1  0.259    1  0.260    2  0.282    2 0.5495   14  1.084    6  0.299    3  0.266
STARS            20 13 105  85  0.013 16.686    9  0.136   11  0.135    7  0.163    9 0.5265   21  1.024   10  0.107    6  0.218
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 16 18 102  99  0.020 17.526   17 -0.024   17 -0.027   16  0.010   16 0.4976   24  0.993   20 -0.081   10  0.102
WILD             21 14 104  96  0.019 17.937   10  0.135    9  0.138   10  0.081   10 0.5249   28  0.924   21 -0.089    4  0.251
BLACKHAWKS       12 23  91 112 -0.010 17.845   28 -0.201   28 -0.200   26 -0.158   28 0.4614   20  1.040   26 -0.195   24 -0.121
BLUES            16 20  91 107  0.044 19.029   18 -0.044   18 -0.045   20 -0.071   18 0.4921   31  0.845   29 -0.328    7  0.186
PREDATORS        11 24  84 107  0.035 18.449   30 -0.215   30 -0.216   22 -0.131   29 0.4604   32  0.826   32 -0.408    8  0.146

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         23 11 125  89  0.085 18.020    2  0.256    2  0.257    3  0.272    3 0.5488   13  1.100    5  0.308    5  0.235
BLUE JACKETS     14 21 117 127  0.019 18.121   23 -0.116   23 -0.114   17 -0.048   24 0.4786    1  1.319    7  0.271   30 -0.367
HURRICANES       21 13 118  96  0.015 17.266    7  0.154    7  0.153    6  0.166    6 0.5308   10  1.137    8  0.249   15  0.084
DEVILS           23 14 124  91  0.025 18.761    6  0.170    5  0.166    4  0.253    7 0.5286   25  0.981    9  0.147    1  0.359
FLYERS           15 20 108 130 -0.025 17.619   22 -0.105   22 -0.099   28 -0.163   22 0.4826    6  1.242   12  0.053   31 -0.379
PENGUINS         16 20 112 133 -0.010 18.361   21 -0.079   21 -0.073   29 -0.177   20 0.4859    5  1.242   16  0.040   32 -0.394
RANGERS          16 18  96 102 -0.060 16.523   20 -0.064   20 -0.065   19 -0.063   21 0.4858   19  1.044   22 -0.095   20 -0.031
ISLANDERS        13 22  93 113 -0.058 17.183   27 -0.189   27 -0.187   30 -0.184   27 0.4625   23  0.994   27 -0.275   21 -0.093

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        19 13 126  90  0.110 17.302    5  0.171    6  0.163    1  0.332    4 0.5342    3  1.258    1  0.568   13  0.095
PANTHERS         22 14 126 112  0.065 19.099    4  0.174    4  0.176    9  0.104    5 0.5336    4  1.243    3  0.321   23 -0.114
CANADIENS        14 20 101 123 -0.077 16.393   26 -0.149   26 -0.147   25 -0.155   26 0.4722    7  1.235   13  0.052   29 -0.362
MAPLE LEAFS      21 14 108  98  0.013 17.833   11  0.132   10  0.136   11  0.074   11 0.5246   17  1.046   15  0.044    9  0.103
SENATORS         18 16 105  98 -0.020 16.915   14  0.024   14  0.026   13  0.051   14 0.5052   16  1.048   17  0.025   17  0.077
SABRES           12 23 104 120 -0.058 17.133   31 -0.223   31 -0.225   24 -0.152   31 0.4559    8  1.185   18 -0.009   28 -0.294
RED WINGS        13 21  88 111 -0.121 15.822   29 -0.204   29 -0.203   32 -0.231   30 0.4584   22  1.003   28 -0.311   25 -0.151
BRUINS           19 17  95 109 -0.056 17.620   15  0.004   15  0.010   21 -0.124   15 0.5031   29  0.882   30 -0.340   14  0.093

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      142 138 0.507    1  0.039
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 141 139 0.504    2  0.009
PACIFIC DIVISION      135 141 0.489    3 -0.022
ATLANTIC DIVISION     138 138 0.500    4 -0.023

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.077 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Dec 24 05:30:16 2024
games through: Mon Dec 23 2024

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