Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE         5  7 40 51 -0.137  5.509   23 -0.108   24 -0.099   22 -0.125   25 0.4668    1  1.500    5  0.413   32 -0.663 P
GOLDEN KNIGHTS    8  4 54 37  0.019  5.962    8  0.148    8  0.150    6  0.225    8 0.5296    2  1.382    2  0.593   24 -0.144 P
JETS             11  1 59 30 -0.007  5.781    1  0.343    1  0.353    1  0.329    1 0.5830    3  1.360    1  0.667   18 -0.009 P
CANADIENS         4  8 33 50 -0.073  5.899   30 -0.163   30 -0.164   31 -0.224   28 0.4565    4  1.320   13  0.058   31 -0.506 P
LIGHTNING         7  5 46 40  0.281  7.274    7  0.165    7  0.170    5  0.225    6 0.5415    5  1.313    3  0.498   20 -0.048 P
PANTHERS          9  4 48 41  0.126  7.152    5  0.214    4  0.224    9  0.150    5 0.5479    6  1.308    4  0.416   23 -0.117 P
BLUE JACKETS      5  6 39 38  0.067  5.878   17 -0.036   17 -0.026   14  0.007   16 0.4934    7  1.283    8  0.240   27 -0.225 P
CAPITALS          8  3 46 33  0.167  6.160    3  0.228    3  0.232    8  0.184    4 0.5505    8  1.278    6  0.410   19 -0.042 P
PENGUINS          5  8 38 50  0.009  6.795   22 -0.100   22 -0.088   25 -0.145   21 0.4797    9  1.227   16  0.014   30 -0.304 P
SABRES            4  8 36 42  0.015  6.226   25 -0.145   25 -0.133   20 -0.090   26 0.4594   10  1.194   14  0.026   26 -0.207 P
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SENATORS          6  5 42 33  0.094  5.899   11  0.057   10  0.057   10  0.125   10 0.5082   11  1.189    9  0.235   17  0.016 P
FLYERS            4  8 31 44 -0.049  6.001   28 -0.152   28 -0.151   30 -0.201   23 0.4676   12  1.154   21 -0.135   28 -0.266 P
DEVILS            8  7 53 42  0.056  7.759   10  0.060   11  0.050    7  0.195   11 0.5067   13  1.152    7  0.258   10  0.132 P
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB  5  7 37 42 -0.047  5.981   21 -0.097   21 -0.084   24 -0.130   24 0.4673   14  1.126   19 -0.100   25 -0.160 P
SHARKS            3 10 32 50 -0.080  6.444   32 -0.255   32 -0.271   32 -0.295   32 0.4285   15  1.094   28 -0.304   29 -0.286 P
KINGS             7  6 42 40 -0.097  6.021   14 -0.003   14  0.004   13  0.043   17 0.4902   16  1.086   15  0.024   14  0.062 P
HURRICANES        8  2 39 23  0.058  5.160    2  0.255    2  0.250    3  0.258    2 0.5686   17  1.079   11  0.231    5  0.286 P
BLACKHAWKS        5  8 37 41 -0.136  6.007   29 -0.156   29 -0.158   26 -0.161   29 0.4562   18  1.065   25 -0.206   22 -0.116 P
RANGERS           8  3 44 24 -0.026  5.231    6  0.175    6  0.176    2  0.289    7 0.5396   19  1.054   10  0.231    3  0.347 P
MAPLE LEAFS       6  7 39 39  0.108  7.110   13  0.012   13  0.017   12  0.065   13 0.5032   20  1.036   17 -0.014    9  0.144 P
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLAMES            6  6 35 38 -0.019  6.021   15 -0.007   15  0.001   16 -0.034   14 0.4999   21  1.030   20 -0.121   16  0.052 P
PREDATORS         4  8 29 41 -0.129  5.577   31 -0.169   31 -0.172   29 -0.197   30 0.4520   22  1.017   26 -0.299   21 -0.095 P
RED WINGS         5  6 29 35 -0.020  5.551   20 -0.063   20 -0.045   18 -0.067   22 0.4791   23  1.001   23 -0.187   15  0.052 P
WILD              8  3 41 28  0.144  6.024    4  0.220    5  0.220    4  0.248    3 0.5597   24  0.999   12  0.125    1  0.370 P
CANUCKS           5  5 30 33 -0.040  4.926   16 -0.016   16 -0.004   15 -0.024   15 0.4978   25  0.996   22 -0.150   11  0.102 P
BLUES             6  6 32 38  0.051  6.396   12  0.016   12  0.023   17 -0.054   12 0.5046   26  0.976   24 -0.204   12  0.095 P
STARS             7  4 35 27 -0.097  5.022    9  0.096    9  0.088   11  0.125    9 0.5195   27  0.956   18 -0.047    4  0.297 P
KRAKEN            5  8 37 39  0.018  6.803   24 -0.109   23 -0.091   21 -0.110   20 0.4797   28  0.932   29 -0.309   13  0.090 P
BRUINS            6  7 34 42 -0.072  6.273   19 -0.059   19 -0.043   19 -0.075   19 0.4900   29  0.906   27 -0.304    8  0.153 P
OILERS            6  7 31 41 -0.043  6.480   18 -0.053   18 -0.035   23 -0.126   18 0.4900   30  0.836   30 -0.430    7  0.179 P
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ISLANDERS         4  8 28 37 -0.033  6.070   26 -0.146   26 -0.139   27 -0.165   27 0.4591   31  0.754   31 -0.555    6  0.226 P
DUCKS             4  7 24 31 -0.107  5.251   27 -0.151   27 -0.151   28 -0.167   31 0.4500   32  0.614   32 -0.695    2  0.360 P

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS    8  4 54 37  0.019  5.962    8  0.148    8  0.150    6  0.225    8 0.5296    2  1.382    2  0.593   24 -0.144 P
SHARKS            3 10 32 50 -0.080  6.444   32 -0.255   32 -0.271   32 -0.295   32 0.4285   15  1.094   28 -0.304   29 -0.286 P
KINGS             7  6 42 40 -0.097  6.021   14 -0.003   14  0.004   13  0.043   17 0.4902   16  1.086   15  0.024   14  0.062 P
FLAMES            6  6 35 38 -0.019  6.021   15 -0.007   15  0.001   16 -0.034   14 0.4999   21  1.030   20 -0.121   16  0.052 P
CANUCKS           5  5 30 33 -0.040  4.926   16 -0.016   16 -0.004   15 -0.024   15 0.4978   25  0.996   22 -0.150   11  0.102 P
KRAKEN            5  8 37 39  0.018  6.803   24 -0.109   23 -0.091   21 -0.110   20 0.4797   28  0.932   29 -0.309   13  0.090 P
OILERS            6  7 31 41 -0.043  6.480   18 -0.053   18 -0.035   23 -0.126   18 0.4900   30  0.836   30 -0.430    7  0.179 P
DUCKS             4  7 24 31 -0.107  5.251   27 -0.151   27 -0.151   28 -0.167   31 0.4500   32  0.614   32 -0.695    2  0.360 P

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE         5  7 40 51 -0.137  5.509   23 -0.108   24 -0.099   22 -0.125   25 0.4668    1  1.500    5  0.413   32 -0.663 P
JETS             11  1 59 30 -0.007  5.781    1  0.343    1  0.353    1  0.329    1 0.5830    3  1.360    1  0.667   18 -0.009 P
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB  5  7 37 42 -0.047  5.981   21 -0.097   21 -0.084   24 -0.130   24 0.4673   14  1.126   19 -0.100   25 -0.160 P
BLACKHAWKS        5  8 37 41 -0.136  6.007   29 -0.156   29 -0.158   26 -0.161   29 0.4562   18  1.065   25 -0.206   22 -0.116 P
PREDATORS         4  8 29 41 -0.129  5.577   31 -0.169   31 -0.172   29 -0.197   30 0.4520   22  1.017   26 -0.299   21 -0.095 P
WILD              8  3 41 28  0.144  6.024    4  0.220    5  0.220    4  0.248    3 0.5597   24  0.999   12  0.125    1  0.370 P
BLUES             6  6 32 38  0.051  6.396   12  0.016   12  0.023   17 -0.054   12 0.5046   26  0.976   24 -0.204   12  0.095 P
STARS             7  4 35 27 -0.097  5.022    9  0.096    9  0.088   11  0.125    9 0.5195   27  0.956   18 -0.047    4  0.297 P

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JACKETS      5  6 39 38  0.067  5.878   17 -0.036   17 -0.026   14  0.007   16 0.4934    7  1.283    8  0.240   27 -0.225 P
CAPITALS          8  3 46 33  0.167  6.160    3  0.228    3  0.232    8  0.184    4 0.5505    8  1.278    6  0.410   19 -0.042 P
PENGUINS          5  8 38 50  0.009  6.795   22 -0.100   22 -0.088   25 -0.145   21 0.4797    9  1.227   16  0.014   30 -0.304 P
FLYERS            4  8 31 44 -0.049  6.001   28 -0.152   28 -0.151   30 -0.201   23 0.4676   12  1.154   21 -0.135   28 -0.266 P
DEVILS            8  7 53 42  0.056  7.759   10  0.060   11  0.050    7  0.195   11 0.5067   13  1.152    7  0.258   10  0.132 P
HURRICANES        8  2 39 23  0.058  5.160    2  0.255    2  0.250    3  0.258    2 0.5686   17  1.079   11  0.231    5  0.286 P
RANGERS           8  3 44 24 -0.026  5.231    6  0.175    6  0.176    2  0.289    7 0.5396   19  1.054   10  0.231    3  0.347 P
ISLANDERS         4  8 28 37 -0.033  6.070   26 -0.146   26 -0.139   27 -0.165   27 0.4591   31  0.754   31 -0.555    6  0.226 P

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CANADIENS         4  8 33 50 -0.073  5.899   30 -0.163   30 -0.164   31 -0.224   28 0.4565    4  1.320   13  0.058   31 -0.506 P
LIGHTNING         7  5 46 40  0.281  7.274    7  0.165    7  0.170    5  0.225    6 0.5415    5  1.313    3  0.498   20 -0.048 P
PANTHERS          9  4 48 41  0.126  7.152    5  0.214    4  0.224    9  0.150    5 0.5479    6  1.308    4  0.416   23 -0.117 P
SABRES            4  8 36 42  0.015  6.226   25 -0.145   25 -0.133   20 -0.090   26 0.4594   10  1.194   14  0.026   26 -0.207 P
SENATORS          6  5 42 33  0.094  5.899   11  0.057   10  0.057   10  0.125   10 0.5082   11  1.189    9  0.235   17  0.016 P
MAPLE LEAFS       6  7 39 39  0.108  7.110   13  0.012   13  0.017   12  0.065   13 0.5032   20  1.036   17 -0.014    9  0.144 P
RED WINGS         5  6 29 35 -0.020  5.551   20 -0.063   20 -0.045   18 -0.067   22 0.4791   23  1.001   23 -0.187   15  0.052 P
BRUINS            6  7 34 42 -0.072  6.273   19 -0.059   19 -0.043   19 -0.075   19 0.4900   29  0.906   27 -0.304    8  0.153 P

DIVISION               W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 50 45 0.526    1  0.107
ATLANTIC DIVISION     47 50 0.485    2  0.028
CENTRAL DIVISION      51 44 0.537    3  0.007
PACIFIC DIVISION      44 53 0.454    4 -0.116

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.073 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Nov  5 05:30:15 2024
games through: Mon Nov  4 2024

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