Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         22 10 121  84  0.089 16.940    1  0.258    1  0.257    2  0.281    1 0.5517   11  1.117    4  0.339    5  0.223
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   22 11 117  95  0.085 17.623    2  0.238    2  0.241    5  0.204    2 0.5511    8  1.179    3  0.340   15  0.068
JETS             24 11 128  87  0.010 17.542    3  0.232    3  0.233    3  0.254    3 0.5458   15  1.075    6  0.261    4  0.248
PANTHERS         21 13 122 106  0.033 17.563    5  0.162    4  0.159    9  0.104    6 0.5329    4  1.283    2  0.375   25 -0.167
HURRICANES       20 12 113  90  0.026 16.331    4  0.163    5  0.159    6  0.178    4 0.5341   10  1.135    7  0.259   11  0.097
LIGHTNING        18 12 120  86  0.098 16.035    6  0.157    6  0.155    1  0.305    5 0.5333    2  1.301    1  0.600   18  0.009
DEVILS           22 14 119  91  0.037 18.418    7  0.152    7  0.154    4  0.222    8 0.5275   23  0.990    9  0.128    1  0.316
MAPLE LEAFS      21 13 106  93  0.000 17.084    8  0.140    8  0.146   10  0.086    7 0.5277   19  1.030   16  0.039   10  0.132
OILERS           20 13 108  94 -0.000 16.655    9  0.122    9  0.129   13  0.055    9 0.5255   16  1.069   12  0.054   17  0.055
WILD             20 14 100  93  0.023 17.447   10  0.115   10  0.120   11  0.077   11 0.5230   28  0.909   22 -0.109    2  0.263
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
STARS            19 13 102  83  0.006 16.064   11  0.111   11  0.113    7  0.151   10 0.5230   20  1.028   10  0.101    6  0.200
AVALANCHE        20 15 116 118  0.026 18.098   12  0.097   12  0.103   16  0.010   12 0.5183    3  1.299    5  0.303   27 -0.283
KINGS            19 14 103  85 -0.044 15.985   13  0.067   13  0.069    8  0.140   13 0.5120   24  0.972   17  0.025    3  0.255
SENATORS         18 15 104  95 -0.020 16.362   14  0.043   14  0.045   12  0.069   14 0.5085   17  1.065   11  0.064   14  0.074
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 16 16  96  91  0.023 16.491   15  0.010   15  0.012   14  0.023   15 0.5055   26  0.969   21 -0.095    9  0.142
BRUINS           18 17  91 108 -0.063 17.016   16 -0.016   16 -0.010   25 -0.149   16 0.4992   29  0.886   30 -0.360   16  0.063
RANGERS          16 16  95  94 -0.076 15.247   17 -0.038   17 -0.034   17 -0.013   18 0.4914   14  1.081   18  0.001   21 -0.028
CANUCKS          16 17 103 104 -0.038 16.188   18 -0.040   18 -0.036   15  0.016   17 0.4925   13  1.094   14  0.046   19 -0.014
FLAMES           16 18  95 106 -0.037 16.789   19 -0.057   19 -0.051   19 -0.050   20 0.4885   27  0.962   25 -0.177   13  0.076
BLUES            15 20  87 107  0.058 18.703   20 -0.061   20 -0.055   20 -0.096   19 0.4901   30  0.854   29 -0.341    8  0.150
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLYERS           15 19 105 123 -0.018 17.162   21 -0.079   21 -0.075   22 -0.134   21 0.4858    7  1.212   15  0.044   29 -0.312
PENGUINS         15 20 105 130  0.003 18.049   22 -0.084   22 -0.081   32 -0.189   22 0.4832    6  1.214   19 -0.008   32 -0.370
KRAKEN           15 20  99 108 -0.020 17.623   23 -0.097   23 -0.094   21 -0.120   23 0.4810   18  1.041   24 -0.154   22 -0.086
CANADIENS        14 19  97 118 -0.075 15.915   24 -0.126   24 -0.123   24 -0.144   24 0.4757    5  1.221   13  0.046   30 -0.335
BLUE JACKETS     13 21 112 123  0.028 17.694   25 -0.127   25 -0.126   18 -0.048   25 0.4752    1  1.304    8  0.252   31 -0.348
DUCKS            12 19  76  96 -0.017 15.672   26 -0.137   26 -0.134   28 -0.154   26 0.4702   31  0.851   31 -0.403   12  0.095
ISLANDERS        13 21  92 106 -0.043 16.820   27 -0.161   27 -0.158   23 -0.135   27 0.4672   25  0.971   28 -0.250   20 -0.020
RED WINGS        13 20  88 107 -0.114 15.384   28 -0.178   28 -0.177   31 -0.189   29 0.4618   22  1.022   27 -0.245   24 -0.133
BLACKHAWKS       12 22  88 108 -0.012 17.268   29 -0.182   29 -0.179   26 -0.151   28 0.4626   21  1.027   26 -0.201   23 -0.101
SHARKS           11 25  98 129  0.028 18.930   30 -0.224   30 -0.224   30 -0.179   30 0.4566   12  1.112   23 -0.127   26 -0.232
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SABRES           11 23  97 119 -0.043 16.849   31 -0.229   31 -0.231   29 -0.179   32 0.4528    9  1.163   20 -0.063   28 -0.294
PREDATORS        10 24  79 105  0.029 17.855   32 -0.231   32 -0.233   27 -0.153   31 0.4550   32  0.798   32 -0.459    7  0.153

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   22 11 117  95  0.085 17.623    2  0.238    2  0.241    5  0.204    2 0.5511    8  1.179    3  0.340   15  0.068
OILERS           20 13 108  94 -0.000 16.655    9  0.122    9  0.129   13  0.055    9 0.5255   16  1.069   12  0.054   17  0.055
KINGS            19 14 103  85 -0.044 15.985   13  0.067   13  0.069    8  0.140   13 0.5120   24  0.972   17  0.025    3  0.255
CANUCKS          16 17 103 104 -0.038 16.188   18 -0.040   18 -0.036   15  0.016   17 0.4925   13  1.094   14  0.046   19 -0.014
FLAMES           16 18  95 106 -0.037 16.789   19 -0.057   19 -0.051   19 -0.050   20 0.4885   27  0.962   25 -0.177   13  0.076
KRAKEN           15 20  99 108 -0.020 17.623   23 -0.097   23 -0.094   21 -0.120   23 0.4810   18  1.041   24 -0.154   22 -0.086
DUCKS            12 19  76  96 -0.017 15.672   26 -0.137   26 -0.134   28 -0.154   26 0.4702   31  0.851   31 -0.403   12  0.095
SHARKS           11 25  98 129  0.028 18.930   30 -0.224   30 -0.224   30 -0.179   30 0.4566   12  1.112   23 -0.127   26 -0.232

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS             24 11 128  87  0.010 17.542    3  0.232    3  0.233    3  0.254    3 0.5458   15  1.075    6  0.261    4  0.248
WILD             20 14 100  93  0.023 17.447   10  0.115   10  0.120   11  0.077   11 0.5230   28  0.909   22 -0.109    2  0.263
STARS            19 13 102  83  0.006 16.064   11  0.111   11  0.113    7  0.151   10 0.5230   20  1.028   10  0.101    6  0.200
AVALANCHE        20 15 116 118  0.026 18.098   12  0.097   12  0.103   16  0.010   12 0.5183    3  1.299    5  0.303   27 -0.283
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 16 16  96  91  0.023 16.491   15  0.010   15  0.012   14  0.023   15 0.5055   26  0.969   21 -0.095    9  0.142
BLUES            15 20  87 107  0.058 18.703   20 -0.061   20 -0.055   20 -0.096   19 0.4901   30  0.854   29 -0.341    8  0.150
BLACKHAWKS       12 22  88 108 -0.012 17.268   29 -0.182   29 -0.179   26 -0.151   28 0.4626   21  1.027   26 -0.201   23 -0.101
PREDATORS        10 24  79 105  0.029 17.855   32 -0.231   32 -0.233   27 -0.153   31 0.4550   32  0.798   32 -0.459    7  0.153

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         22 10 121  84  0.089 16.940    1  0.258    1  0.257    2  0.281    1 0.5517   11  1.117    4  0.339    5  0.223
HURRICANES       20 12 113  90  0.026 16.331    4  0.163    5  0.159    6  0.178    4 0.5341   10  1.135    7  0.259   11  0.097
DEVILS           22 14 119  91  0.037 18.418    7  0.152    7  0.154    4  0.222    8 0.5275   23  0.990    9  0.128    1  0.316
RANGERS          16 16  95  94 -0.076 15.247   17 -0.038   17 -0.034   17 -0.013   18 0.4914   14  1.081   18  0.001   21 -0.028
FLYERS           15 19 105 123 -0.018 17.162   21 -0.079   21 -0.075   22 -0.134   21 0.4858    7  1.212   15  0.044   29 -0.312
PENGUINS         15 20 105 130  0.003 18.049   22 -0.084   22 -0.081   32 -0.189   22 0.4832    6  1.214   19 -0.008   32 -0.370
BLUE JACKETS     13 21 112 123  0.028 17.694   25 -0.127   25 -0.126   18 -0.048   25 0.4752    1  1.304    8  0.252   31 -0.348
ISLANDERS        13 21  92 106 -0.043 16.820   27 -0.161   27 -0.158   23 -0.135   27 0.4672   25  0.971   28 -0.250   20 -0.020

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS         21 13 122 106  0.033 17.563    5  0.162    4  0.159    9  0.104    6 0.5329    4  1.283    2  0.375   25 -0.167
LIGHTNING        18 12 120  86  0.098 16.035    6  0.157    6  0.155    1  0.305    5 0.5333    2  1.301    1  0.600   18  0.009
MAPLE LEAFS      21 13 106  93  0.000 17.084    8  0.140    8  0.146   10  0.086    7 0.5277   19  1.030   16  0.039   10  0.132
SENATORS         18 15 104  95 -0.020 16.362   14  0.043   14  0.045   12  0.069   14 0.5085   17  1.065   11  0.064   14  0.074
BRUINS           18 17  91 108 -0.063 17.016   16 -0.016   16 -0.010   25 -0.149   16 0.4992   29  0.886   30 -0.360   16  0.063
CANADIENS        14 19  97 118 -0.075 15.915   24 -0.126   24 -0.123   24 -0.144   24 0.4757    5  1.221   13  0.046   30 -0.335
RED WINGS        13 20  88 107 -0.114 15.384   28 -0.178   28 -0.177   31 -0.189   29 0.4618   22  1.022   27 -0.245   24 -0.133
SABRES           11 23  97 119 -0.043 16.849   31 -0.229   31 -0.231   29 -0.179   32 0.4528    9  1.163   20 -0.063   28 -0.294

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 136 133 0.506    1  0.032
CENTRAL DIVISION      136 135 0.502    2  0.022
PACIFIC DIVISION      131 137 0.489    3 -0.021
ATLANTIC DIVISION     134 132 0.504    4 -0.023

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.078 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Dec 22 05:30:18 2024
games through: Sat Dec 21 2024

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